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Scaling limits for super-replication with transient price impact

Peter Bank, Yan Dolinsky.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 2176--2201.

Abstract:
We prove a scaling limit theorem for the super-replication cost of options in a Cox–Ross–Rubinstein binomial model with transient price impact. The correct scaling turns out to keep the market depth parameter constant while resilience over fixed periods of time grows in inverse proportion with the duration between trading times. For vanilla options, the scaling limit is found to coincide with the one obtained by PDE-methods in ( Math. Finance 22 (2012) 250–276) for models with purely temporary price impact. These models are a special case of our framework and so our probabilistic scaling limit argument allows one to expand the scope of the scaling limit result to path-dependent options.




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Setting Class-Size Limits

A majority of states have at least one policy that limits the number of students that may be in a general education classroom, according to the Education Commission of the States. Among states that have changed their class-size policies since 2008, all have opted to relax those constraints.




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Setting Class-Size Limits

A majority of states have at least one policy that limits the number of students that may be in a general education classroom, according to the Education Commission of the States. Among states that have changed their class-size policies since 2008, all have opted to relax those constraints.




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Concurrent local delivery of diflunisal limits bone destruction but fails to improve systemic vancomycin efficacy during Staphylococcus aureus osteomyelitis [Clinical Therapeutics]

Staphylococcus aureus osteomyelitis is a debilitating infection of bone. Treatment of osteomyelitis is impaired by the propensity of invading bacteria to induce pathologic bone remodeling that may limit antibiotic penetration to the infectious focus. The nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug diflunisal was previously identified as an osteoprotective adjunctive therapy for osteomyelitis, based on the ability of this compound to inhibit S. aureus quorum sensing and subsequent quorum-dependent toxin production. When delivered locally during experimental osteomyelitis, diflunisal significantly limits bone destruction without affecting bacterial burdens. However, because diflunisal's "quorum-quenching" activity could theoretically increase antibiotic recalcitrance, it is critically important to evaluate this adjunctive therapy in the context of standard of care antibiotics. The objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of vancomycin to treat osteomyelitis during local diflunisal treatment. We first determined that systemic vancomycin effectively reduces bacterial burdens in a murine model of osteomyelitis, and identified a dosing regimen that decreases bacterial burdens without eradicating infection. Using this dosing scheme, we found that vancomycin activity is unaffected by the presence of diflunisal in vitro and in vivo. Similarly, locally-delivered diflunisal still potently inhibits osteoblast cytotoxicity in vitro and bone destruction in vivo in the presence of sub-therapeutic vancomycin. However, we also found that the resorbable polyurethane foams used to deliver diflunisal serve as a nidus for infection. Taken together, these data demonstrate that diflunisal does not significantly impact standard of care antibiotic therapy for S. aureus osteomyelitis, but also highlight potential pitfalls encountered with local drug delivery.




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Apple Caving on Hong Kong Shows the Limits of Security as a Sales Tool

Security expert Max Eddy explains how Apple banning an app used by pro-democracy protesters shows how even the best consumer security polices fail when there's a lack of will to enforce them appropriately.




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Governor Carney Limits Restaurants to Take-Out and Delivery

Updated emergency declaration also bans gatherings of 50+ people statewide, and closes gaming in Delaware casinos WILMINGTON, Del. – Governor John Carney on Monday modified his March 12 emergency declaration to limit Delaware restaurants, taverns and bars to take-out and delivery service only to help prevent spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Governor Carney’s updated emergency […]




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Latest emergency order limits recreation options for out-of-state visitors; allows restricted surf fishing

Out-of-state visitors must self-quarantine for 14 days before engaging in fishing, hunting, golf, visiting state parks and wildlife areas.



  • Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control
  • Division of Fish and Wildlife
  • Division of Parks and Recreation
  • Coronavirus
  • health and safety
  • outdoors and recreation
  • permitting and regulation
  • public
  • restrictions
  • state of emergency

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DNREC Closes Park and Wildlife Area Amenities; Limits Outdoor Recreation Activities at Beaches

While most state parks, nature and wildlife areas continue to stay open during the “Stay Home, Stay Safe” emergency order, many amenities are closed.




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Sebi’s enhanced borrowing limits didn’t help MFs

Credit risk funds have been seeing redemptions over the last one year. Between March 2019 and March 2020, most credit risk funds had seen outflows barring ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Funs, IDFC Credit Risk Fund and Mahindra Credit Risk Yojana.




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RBI reduces FPI investment limits in G-secs to Rs 2.34 lakh crore for FY21

At the same time, long term FPI investment limits in G-secs have been brought down to Rs 1.03 lakh crore from the prevailing limit of Rs 1.15 lakh crore  a reduction of almost $1.5 billion.




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F1: Change of rulers to spending limits would make the sport more competitive

Change of rules to spending limits would make the sport more competitive




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As trade war looms, EU sets limits on Palm Oil in Biofuels

The biggest palm oil producers stepped up lobbying in Brussels to defend its future in the European market.




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DAC 2015: Google Smart Contact Lens Project Stretches Limits of IC Design

There has been so much hype about the “Internet of Things” (IoT) that it is refreshing to hear about a cutting-edge development project that can bring concrete benefits to millions of people. That project is the ongoing development of the Google Smart Contact Lens, and it was detailed in a keynote speech June 8 at the Design Automation Conference (DAC 2015).

The keynote speech was given by Brian Otis (right), a director at Google and a research associate professor at the University of Washington. The “smart lens” that the project envisions is essentially a disposable contact lens that fits on an eye and continuously monitors blood glucose levels. This is valuable information for anyone who has, or may someday have, diabetes.

Since he was speaking to an engineering audience, Otis focused on the challenges behind building such a device, and described some of the strategies taken by Google and its partner, Novartis. The project required new approaches to miniaturization, low-power design, and connectivity, as well as a comfortable and reliable silicon-to-human interface. Otis discussed the “why” as well and showed how the device could potentially save or improve millions of lives.

Millions of Users

First, a bit of background. Google announced the smart lens project in a blog post in January 2014. Since then it has been featured in news outlets including Forbes, Time, and the Wall Street Journal. In March 2015, Time reported that Google has been granted a patent for a smart contact lens.

The smart lens monitors the level of blood glucose by looking at its concentration in tears. The lens includes a wireless system on chip (SoC) and a miniaturized glucose sensor. A tiny pinhole in the lens allows tear fluid to seep into the sensor, and a wireless antenna handles communications to the wireless devices.

“We figure that if we can solve a huge problem, it is probably worth doing,” Otis said. “Diabetes is one example.” He noted 382 million people worldwide have diabetes today, and that 35% of the U.S. population may be pre-diabetic. Today, diabetics must *** their fingers to test blood glucose levels, a procedure that is invasive, painful, and subject to infrequent monitoring.

According to Otis, the smart contact lens represents a “new category of wearable devices that are comfortable, inexpensive, and empowering.” The lens does sensor data logging and uses a portable instrument to measure glucose levels. It is thin, cheap, and disposable, he said.

Moreover, the lens is not just for people already diagnosed with diabetes—it’s for anyone who is pre-diabetic, or may be at risk due to genetic predisposition. “If we are pro-active rather than re-active,” Otis said, “Instead of waiting until a person has full-fledged diabetes, we could make a huge difference in peoples’ lives and lower the costs of treating them.”

Technical Challenges

No one has built anything quite like the smart lens, so researchers at Google and Novartis are treading new ground. Otis identified three key challenges:

  • Miniaturization: Everything must be really small—the SoC, the passive components, the power supply. Components must be flexible and cheap, and support thin-film integration.
  • Platform: Google has developed a reusable platform that includes tiny, always-on wireless sensors, ultra low-power components, and standards-based interfaces.
  • Data: Researchers are looking for the best ways to get the resulting data into a mobile device and onto the cloud.

Comfort is another concern. “This is not intended to be for the most severe cases,” Otis said. “This is intended to be for all of us as a pro-active way of improving our lifestyles.”

The platform provides a bidirectional encrypted wireless link, integrated power management, on-chip memory, standards-based RFID link, flexible sensor interface, high-resolution potentiostat sensor, and decoupling capacitors. Most of these capabilities are provided by the standard CMOS SoC, which is a couple hundred microns on a side and only “tens of microns” thick.

Otis noted that unpackaged ICs are typically 250 microns thick when they come back from the foundry. Thus, post-processing is needed so the IC will fit into a contact lens.

Furthermore, the design requires precision analog circuitry and additional environmental sensors. “Some of this stuff sounds mundane but it is really hard, especially when you find out you can’t throw large decoupling capacitors and bypass capacitors onto a board, and all that has to be re-integrated into the chip,” Otis said.

Sensor Challenges

Getting information from the human body is challenging. The smart lens sensor does a direct chemical measurement on the surface of the eye. The sensor is designed to work with very low glucose concentrations. This is because the concentration of glucose in tears is an order of magnitude lower than it is in blood.

In brief, the sensor has two parallel plates that are coated with an enzyme that converts glucose into hydrogen peroxide, which flows around the electrodes of the sensor. This is actually a fairly standard way of doing glucose monitoring. However, the smart lens sensor has two electrodes compared to the typical three.

In manufacturing, it is essential to keep costs low. Otis outlined a three-step manufacturing process:

  • Start with the bottom layer, and mold a contact lens in the way you typically would.
  • Add the electronics package on top of that layer.
  • Build a second layer that encapsulates the electronics and provides the curvature needed for comfort and vision correction.

Beyond the technical challenges are the “clinical” challenges of working with human beings. The human body “is messy and very variable,” Otis said. This variability affects sensor performance and calibration, RF/electro-magnetic performance, system reliability, and comfort.

The final step is making use of the data. “We need to get the data from the device into a phone, and then display it so users can visualize the data,” Otis said. This provides “actionable feedback” to the person who needs it. Eventually, the data will need to be stored in the cloud.

As he concluded his talk, Otis noted that the platform his group developed may have many applications beyond glucose monitoring. “There is a lot you can do with a bunch of logic and sensing capability,” he said, “and there are hundreds of biomarkers beyond glucose.” Clearly this will be an interesting technology to watch.

Richard Goering

Related Blog Post

Gary Smith at DAC 2015: How EDA Can Expand Into New Directions




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Coronavirus – Functioning of courts: impact of COVID-19 on procedural time limits and functioning of courts in the Russian Federation - Russia

By Decree No. 206 On Declaring Non-Working Days in the Russian Federation dated 25 March 2020 ("Decree No. 206") the President of the Russian Federation announced that from 30 March 2020 until 3 April 2020 would be considered non-working days in the...




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Planet Earth has 9 safety limits and we’ve already exceeded 4 of them

A decade ago, Johan Rockström identified the limits to Earth's life support systems. From chemical pollution to climate change, we're veering into the danger zone - so why is he (cautiously) optimistic about the future?




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Is the 'Gratitude Movement' Overrated? Study Finds It Has Limits

Title: Is the 'Gratitude Movement' Overrated? Study Finds It Has Limits
Category: Health News
Created: 3/16/2020 12:00:00 AM
Last Editorial Review: 3/17/2020 12:00:00 AM




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Loss of IKK Subunits Limits NF-{kappa}B Signaling in Reovirus-Infected Cells [Virus-Cell Interactions]

Viruses commonly antagonize innate immune pathways that are primarily driven by nuclear factor kappa B (NF-B), interferon regulatory factor (IRF), and the signal transducer and activator of transcription proteins (STAT) family of transcription factors. Such a strategy allows viruses to evade immune surveillance and maximize their replication. Using an unbiased transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq)-based approach to measure gene expression induced by transfected viral genomic RNA (vgRNA) and reovirus infection, we discovered that mammalian reovirus inhibits host cell innate immune signaling. We found that, while vgRNA and reovirus infection both induce a similar IRF-dependent gene expression program, gene expression driven by the NF-B family of transcription factors is lower in infected cells. Potent agonists of NF-B such as tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and vgRNA failed to induce NF-B-dependent gene expression in infected cells. We demonstrate that NF-B signaling is blocked due to loss of critical members of the inhibitor of kappa B kinase (IKK) complex, NF-B essential modifier (NEMO), and IKKβ. The loss of the IKK complex components prevents nuclear translocation and phosphorylation of NF-B, thereby preventing gene expression. Our study demonstrates that reovirus infection selectively blocks NF-B, likely to counteract its antiviral effects and promote efficient viral replication.

IMPORTANCE Host cells mount a response to curb virus replication in infected cells and prevent spread of virus to neighboring, as yet uninfected, cells. The NF-B family of proteins is important for the cell to mediate this response. In this study, we show that in cells infected with mammalian reovirus, NF-B is inactive. Further, we demonstrate that NF-B is rendered inactive because virus infection results in reduced levels of upstream intermediaries (called IKKs) that are needed for NF-B function. Based on previous evidence that active NF-B limits reovirus infection, we conclude that inactivating NF-B is a viral strategy to produce a cellular environment that is favorable for virus replication.




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Limits to sustained energy intake. XXX. Constraint or restraint? Manipulations of food supply show peak food intake in lactation is constrained [RESEARCH ARTICLE]

Zhi-Jun Zhao, Davina Derous, Abby Gerrard, Jing Wen, Xue Liu, Song Tan, Catherine Hambly, and John R. Speakman

Lactating mice increase food intake 4- to 5-fold, reaching an asymptote in late lactation. A key question is whether this asymptote reflects a physiological constraint, or a maternal investment strategy (a ‘restraint’). We exposed lactating mice to periods of food restriction, hypothesizing that if the limit reflected restraint, they would compensate by breaching the asymptote when refeeding. In contrast, if it was a constraint, they would by definition be unable to increase their intake on refeeding days. Using isotope methods, we found that during food restriction, the females shut down milk production, impacting offspring growth. During refeeding, food intake and milk production rose again, but not significantly above unrestricted controls. These data provide strong evidence that asymptotic intake in lactation reflects a physiological/physical constraint, rather than restraint. Because hypothalamic neuropeptide Y (Npy) was upregulated under both states of restriction, this suggests the constraint is not imposed by limits in the capacity to upregulate hunger signalling (the saturated neural capacity hypothesis). Understanding the genetic basis of the constraint will be a key future goal and will provide us additional information on the nature of the constraining factors on reproductive output, and their potential links to life history strategies.




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Limits to Sustained Energy Intake XXXI: Effect of Graded Levels of Dietary Fat on Lactation Performance in Swiss Mice [RESEARCH ARTICLE]

Yi Huang, Jazmin Osorio Mendoza, Catherine Hambly, Baoguo Li, Zengguang Jin, Li Li, Moshen Madizi, Sumei Hu, and John R. Speakman

The heat dissipation limit theory predicts lactating female mice consuming diets with lower specific dynamic action (SDA) should have enhanced lactation performance. Dietary fat has lower SDA than other macronutrients. Here we tested the effects of graded dietary fat levels on lactating Swiss mice. We fed females five diets varying in fat content from 8.3 to 66.6%. Offspring of mothers fed diets of 41.7% fat and above were heavier and fatter at weaning compared to those of 8.3% and 25% fat diets. Mice on dietary fat contents of 41.7% and above had greater metabolizable energy intake at peak lactation (8.3%: 229.4±39.6, 25%: 278.8±25.8, 41.7%: 359.6±51.5, 58.3%: 353.7±43.6, 66.6%: 346±44.7 kJ day–1), lower daily energy expenditure (8.3%: 128.5±16, 25%: 131.6±8.4, 41.7%: 124.4±10.8, 58.3%: 115.1±10.5, 66.6%: 111.2±11.5 kJ day–1) and thus delivered more milk energy to their offspring (8.3%: 100.8±27.3, 25%: 147.2±25.1, 41.7%: 225.1±49.6, 58.3%: 238.6±40.1, 66.6%: 234.8±41.1 kJ day–1). Milk fat content (%) was unrelated to dietary fat content, indicating females on higher fat diets (> 41.7%) produced more rather than richer milk. Mothers consuming diets with 41.7% fat or above enhanced their lactation performance compared to those on 25% or less, probably by diverting dietary fat directly into the milk, thereby avoiding the costs of lipogenesis. At dietary fat contents above 41.7% they were either unable to transfer more dietary fat to the milk, or they chose not to do so, potentially because of a lack of benefit to the offspring that were increasingly fatter as maternal dietary fat increased.




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Tubular STAT3 Limits Renal Inflammation in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

Background

The inactivation of the ciliary proteins polycystin 1 or polycystin 2 leads to autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Although signaling by primary cilia and interstitial inflammation both play a critical role in the disease, the reciprocal interactions between immune and tubular cells are not well characterized. The transcription factor STAT3, a component of the cilia proteome that is involved in crosstalk between immune and nonimmune cells in various tissues, has been suggested as a factor fueling ADPKD progression.

Method

To explore how STAT3 intersects with cilia signaling, renal inflammation, and cyst growth, we used conditional murine models involving postdevelopmental ablation of Pkd1, Stat3, and cilia, as well as cultures of cilia-deficient or STAT3-deficient tubular cell lines.

Results

Our findings indicate that, although primary cilia directly modulate STAT3 activation in vitro, the bulk of STAT3 activation in polycystic kidneys occurs through an indirect mechanism in which primary cilia trigger macrophage recruitment to the kidney, which in turn promotes Stat3 activation. Surprisingly, although inactivating Stat3 in Pkd1-deficient tubules slightly reduced cyst burden, it resulted in a massive infiltration of the cystic kidneys by macrophages and T cells, precluding any improvement of kidney function. We also found that Stat3 inactivation led to increased expression of the inflammatory chemokines CCL5 and CXCL10 in polycystic kidneys and cultured tubular cells.

Conclusions

STAT3 appears to repress the expression of proinflammatory cytokines and restrict immune cell infiltration in ADPKD. Our findings suggest that STAT3 is not a critical driver of cyst growth in ADPKD but rather plays a major role in the crosstalk between immune and tubular cells that shapes disease expression.




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U.S. continues media battle with Beijing, limits Chinese journalists' visas

The back-and-forth continues.The Department of Homeland Security said Friday the United States will shorten the visa length for Chinese journalists working for non-American news outlets to 90 days. Previously, journalists with Chinese passports were granted open-ended visas. They can apply for extensions under the new rules, but renewed visas will also last just 90 days. The new limit won't apply to reporters from Hong Kong Macau, or to mainland Chinese citizens who hold green cards.It's the latest development in a media war between Washington and Beijing that has intensified during the coronavirus pandemic. American officials said the rules were meant to counterbalance the "suppression of independent journalism" in China, whose government expelled journalists from The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Washington Post in March. Before that, the U.S. reduced the number of Chinese citizens employed by multiple state-controlled Chinese news organizations to work in the country. The New York Times notes the move wasn't unexpected; U.S. intelligence officials have long believed some journalists at Beijing-run outlets are spies, and the Trump administration has designated some Chinese news agencies foreign government functionaries.The heightened tensions between the world's two biggest powers didn't just show up in the media world Friday. U.S. lawmakers wrote to nearly 60 countries asking them to support Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization, a move that likely won't sit well with China. And Washington also blocked a United Nations security council resolution calling for a global ceasefire during the pandemic because it indirectly referenced the WHO, which the U.S. has blamed in conjunction with China for failing to suppress the outbreak.More stories from theweek.com Outed CIA agent Valerie Plame is running for Congress, and her launch video looks like a spy movie trailer 7 scathing cartoons about America's rush to reopen Trump says he couldn't have exposed WWII vets to COVID-19 because the wind was blowing the wrong way





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Google and Apple place privacy limits on countries using their coronavirus tracing technology

The tech giants shared details Monday about the tools they’ve been developing to help governments and public health authorities trace the spread of the coronavirus.





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UPDATE: Arkansas venue plans concert despite state's virus limits...


UPDATE: Arkansas venue plans concert despite state's virus limits...


(Third column, 9th story, link)





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Watchdog warns SBA that loan limits will hurt small business borrowers

The SBA's IG said the agency veered from the law Congress drafted to create the program when the agency set rules for how businesses could obtain loan forgiveness.




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Stretched beyond the limits

It's a common phenomenon we know from cracked sneakers and burst tyres: worn-out materials can cause anything from mild annoyance to fatal accidents. But while fatigue is well understood in synthetic materials, we know much less about such processes in mammalian tissue. An international team led by HITS researchers has shown that mechanical stress can similarly deteriorate collagen tissue. The findings might help to advance material research and biomedicine.




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Heat and Humidity Are Already Reaching the Limits of Human Tolerance

Events with extreme temperatures and humidity are occurring twice as often now as they were 40 years ago

-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com




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Justice Department Reaches Settlement with Homeowners Association and Property Management Company in Fair Housing Lawsuit Involving Occupancy Limits

The Justice Department announced today that the Townhomes of Kings Lake HOA Inc. (HOA) and Vanguard Management Group Inc. have agreed to pay $150,000 to settle a lawsuit alleging violations of the Fair Housing Act (FHA).



  • OPA Press Releases

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Hotel Magnate Pleads Guilty to Federal Election Campaign Spending Limits Evasion Scheme and Witness Tampering

Sant Singh Chatwal, 70, of New York – a businessman operating several restaurants, hotels and a hotel management company – pleaded guilty in the Eastern District of New York to conspiring to violate the Federal Election Campaign Act.



  • OPA Press Releases

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Endo-microscopy beyond the Abbe and Nyquist limits




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Rad53 limits CMG helicase uncoupling from DNA synthesis at replication forks




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Targeting cellular fatty acid synthesis limits T helper and innate lymphoid cell function during intestinal inflammation and infection




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At the Havana Biennial, artists test limits on free expression

     

       




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Overcoming the limits to growth: Sustainability lessons from Japan


Event Information

October 26, 2015
10:00 AM - 11:15 AM EDT

Saul/Zilkha Rooms
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Register for the Event

Despite being a developed and prosperous country, Japan faces a host of basic challenges today and going forward—some of its own creation and others beyond the country’s control. For example, Japan lacks essential natural resources, while also facing overcrowding in cities and depopulation in rural areas. As a result, food and energy self-sufficiency is low. Also, while the dual phenomena of a low birthrate and an ageing population have long been deemed problematic, these issues are rapidly growing more serious. The problems Japan faces today are potentially the same problems the rest of the world will face in the near future. Japan, therefore, may serve as a bellwether for the global community as many nations anticipate similar challenges in the future.  

On October 26, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings and the U.S.-Japan Research Institute co-hosted Hiroshi Komiyama, chairman of the Mitsubishi Research Institute and president emeritus of the University of Tokyo, for a discussion of his recent book, “Beyond the Limits to Growth: New Ideas for Sustainability from Japan.” In this book, Komiyama examines the issues facing Japan—and the world—presenting a number of potential viable solutions and offering insights into Japan’s experiences and the lessons it can provide for a more sustainable future.

 

Audio

Transcript

Event Materials

      
 
 




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Limits on Nevada’s legislature keep it from serving the state

In the last 30 years, Nevada has evolved from a sparsely and homogenously populated rural outpost to one of the most urban and diverse states in the country. Nevada’s population is now majority-minority. The Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise Metropolitan statistical area with over 2.2 million residents is the 28th largest in the country and is home to…

       




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Leading beyond limits: Mayoral powers in the age of new localism

These are trying times for the world—and acutely challenging times for cities. Whether grappling with the challenges of integrating refugees or adapting to new environmental realities brought on by climate change, mayors are on the front lines, dealing with disruptions brought by technology, economic transformation, and demographic shift.  In the United States, socioeconomic and political…

       




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The limits of refugee law

      
 
 




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Burkina Faso Protests Extending Presidential Term Limits


On Tuesday, October 28, 2014, tens of thousands of citizens of Burkina Faso gathered in its capital city, Ouagadougou, and its second biggest city, Bobo Dioulasso, to protest proposed changes to its constitution regarding term limits. A vote was planned for Thursday, on whether to extend the current limit of two terms to three. This vote is extremely controversial:  Current President Blaise Compaoré, who came to power in a coup in 1987, has ruled the country for 27 years. Allowing him to run for election in November 2015 could extend his reign for another five years. In Ouagadougou on Wednesday, citizens angry over the possibility that parliament might make it possible for Campaoré to stay in power indefinitely set fire to the parliament and forced legislators to postpone the vote that had been set for Thursday, October 30, 2014 to decide the constitutional issue.

A History of Autocracy in Burkina Faso

The West African country has been plagued by dictators, autocracies and coups in the past. At independence on August 5, 1960, Maurice Yaméogo, leader of the Voltaic Democratic Union (Union démocratique voltaïque), became the country’s first president. Shortly after assuming power, Yaméogo banned all political opposition, forcing mass riots and demonstrations that only came to an end after the military intervened in 1966. Lt. Col. Sangoulé Lamizana and a collection of military elites took control of the government and subsequently dissolved the National Assembly as well as suspended the constitution. Lamizana stayed in power until November 1980 when the military overthrew the government and installed Col. Saye Zerbo as the new president. Two years later, Col. Zerbo’s government was overthrown by Maj. Dr. Jean-Baptiste Ouédraogo and the Council of Popular Salvation (CSP—Conseil du salut du peuple). Although it promised to transition the country to civilian rule and provide a new constitution, the Ouédraogo regime banned all political organizations, including opposition parties. There soon arose a political struggle within the CSP. The radicals, led by Captain Thomas Sankara, eventually overthrew the government in August 1983, and Capt. Sankara emerged as the country’s new leader. In 1984, the Sankara government changed the country’s name from Upper Volta to Burkina Faso and introduced many institutional reforms that effectively aligned the country with Marxist ideals.

On October 15, 1987, Capt. Blaise Compaoré, a former colleague of Sankara’s, killed Sankara and several of his confidants in a successful coup d’état. In 1991, Campaoré was elected president in an election in which only 25 percent of the electorate participated because of a boycott movement organized and carried out by opposition parties. In 1998, he won reelection for another seven-year term. As president, Campaoré reversed all the progressive policies that Sankara had implemented.

President Blaise Compaoré’s Time in Power

In 2000, the country’s post-Cold War 1991 constitution was amended to impose a limit of two five-year consecutive terms on the presidency. However, Campaoré’s supporters argued that because he was in office when the amendments went into effect, they did not apply to him and, hence, he was qualified to run for re-election in 2005. Despite the fact that the opposition fielded several candidates, Campoaré won 80.35 percent of the votes cast in the 2005 presidential election. And, in the presidential elections held in November 2010, he captured 80.2 percent of votes.

Over more than a quarter century in power, Campaoré has used an unusual formula to achieve relative stability in Burkina Faso—authoritarianism mixed with traces of democracy. The complex governance system has relied primarily on Campaoré’s dominant and charismatic political power and has failed to build sustainable institutions—specifically, those capable of maintaining the rule of law and enhancing peaceful coexistence in his absence.

Constitutionally mandated presidential term limits strengthen the rule of law and provide a significant level of stability and predictability to the country’s governance institutions. In response to the efforts by Burkinabé members of parliament to change the constitution to enable Compaoré to secure another term in office, U.S. government officials have recently stated that “democratic institutions are strengthened when established rules are adhered to with consistency.” On his part, Campaoré has proclaimed that his main and immediate concern “is not to build a future for myself—but to see how the future of this country will take shape.” If this is indeed true, then he should exit gracefully from the Burkinabé political scene and henceforth serve as an elder statesman, providing his country’s new leadership with the advice and support that they need to deepen and institutionalize democracy, as well as enhance economic, social, political and human development.

Insisting, as President Campoaré has done, that the constitution be changed so that he can seek an additional term in power not only destroys the country’s fragile stability but also sends the wrong message to citizens about the rule of law—while citizens must be law-abiding, the president does not have to abide by the country’s settled law; if the law stands in the way of the president’s personal ambitions, he can simply change the law to provide him with the wherewithal to achieve those objectives. Such behavior from the country’s chief executive does not augur well for deepening the country’s democracy, an objective that is dear to many Burkinabé. The question to ask President Campoaré is: How do you want history to remember you? As a self-serving political opportunist who used his public position to accumulate personal power and wealth, at the expense of fellow citizens, or as a public servant who led and directed his country’s transformation into a peaceful, safe and productive society?

      
 
 




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The limits of the new “Nile Agreement”


On Monday, March 23, 2015, leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan met in the Sudanese capital Khartoum to sign an agreement that is expected to resolve various issues arising out of the decision by Ethiopia to construct a dam on the Blue Nile. The Khartoum declaration, which was signed by the heads of state of the three countries—Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (Egypt), Omar al-Bashir (Sudan), and Halemariam Desalegn (Ethiopia), has been referred to  as a “Nile Agreement,” and one that helps resolve conflicts over the sharing of the waters of the Nile River. However, this view is misleading because the agreement, as far we know, only deals with the Blue Nile’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project (GERDP) and does not tackle the broader, still contentious issues of sharing of the Nile River waters among all riparian states. Thus, the new agreement does leave the conflict over the equitable, fair, and reasonable allocation and utilization of the waters of the Nile River unresolved.

As we celebrated Earth Day recently, it is important that we reflect upon the importance of natural resources such as the Nile and gain an understanding of why they are so important, especially for Africa and its long-term development. In fact, 160 million people rely on the waters of this important river for their livelihoods. Thus, preserving, maintaining, and using the waters and resources of the Nile River efficiently and sustainably is a goal shared by all.

History of the Nile Waters Agreements

These disagreements over the use of the Nile are not recent and, in fact, have a long history because of these countries’ high dependence on the waters of the Nile. In 1929, an agreement was concluded between Egypt and Great Britain regarding the utilization of the waters of the Nile River—Britain was supposedly representing its colonies in the Nile River Basin. [1] The Anglo-Egyptian Treaty covered many issues related to the Nile River and its tributaries. Of particular relevance to the present discussion is that it granted Egypt an annual water allocation of 48 billion cubic meters and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters out of an estimated average annual yield of 84 billion cubic meters. In addition, the 1929 agreement granted Egypt veto power over construction projects on the Nile River or any of its tributaries in an effort to minimize any interference with the flow of water into the Nile.

In 1959, Egypt and an independent Sudan signed a bilateral agreement, which effectively reinforced the provisions of the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty. The 1959 agreement increased water allocations to both Egypt and Sudan—Egypt’s water allocation was raised from 48 billion cubic meters to 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan’s from 4 billion cubic meters to 18.5 billion cubic meters, leaving 10 billion cubic meters to account for seepage and evaporation. Finally, the agreement stipulated that in the case of an increase in average water yield, the increased yield should be shared equally between the two downstream riparian states (i.e., Egypt and Sudan). The 1959 agreement, like the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty, did not make any allowance for the water needs of the other riparian states, including even Ethiopia, whose highlands supply more than 80 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River.

Over the years, especially as the populations of the other countries of the Nile River Basin have increased, and these countries have developed the capacity to more effectively harvest the waters of the Nile River for national development, disagreements have arisen over the fact that Egypt has insisted that the water rights it acquired through the 1929 and 1959 agreements (collectively referred to as the Nile Waters Agreements) be honored and that no construction project be undertaken on the Nile River or any of its tributaries without prior approval from Cairo. In fact, various Egyptian leaders have threatened to go to war to protect these so-called “acquired rights.” Upstream riparian states such as Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia, have argued that they are not bound by these agreements because they were never parties to them. In fact, shortly after independence from Great Britain in 1961, Tanganyika’s (now Tanzania, after union with Zanzibar in 1964) new leader, Julius Nyerere, argued that the Nile Waters Agreements placed his country and other upstream riparian states at Egypt’s mercy, forced them to subject their national development plans to the scrutiny and supervision of Cairo, and that such an approach to public policy would not be compatible with the country’s status as a sovereign independent state. All the upstream riparian states have since argued in favor of a new, more inclusive legal framework for governing the Nile River Basin.

Hope for a new accord: The Cooperative Framework Agreement

In 1999, the Nile River riparian states, [1] except Eritrea, signed the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in an effort to enhance cooperation on the use of the “common Nile Basin water resources.” Under the auspices of the NBI, the riparian states began work on developing what they believed would be a permanent legal and institutional framework for governing the Nile River Basin. The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), as this agreement is called, formally introduced the concept of equitable water allocation into discussions about Nile governance, as well as a complicating concept called “water security.”

The CFA was ready for signature beginning May 10, 2010; Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda have signed it; and the Ethiopian parliament has ratified it. However, arguing that their “acquired rights” to the waters of the Nile River would not be protected, Egypt and Sudan immediately registered their intention not to sign the agreement because they objected to the wording of Article 14(b): “Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation: . . . (b) not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State.” They then proposed an alternative wording for Article 14(b): “Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation: . . . (b) not to significantly affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State,” (emphasis added). This wording was rejected by the upstream riparian states, who argue that “the current uses and rights” phrasing would entrench the concept of prior rights, including those created by the Nile Waters Agreements and effectively retain the inequity and unfairness that has characterized the allocation and utilization of water in the Nile River Basin since the 1920s.

On April 2, 2011, then-prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, laid the foundation for the construction of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam. The dam is located on the Blue Nile, in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of the country. Shortly after the announcement, authorities in Cairo immediately launched a campaign of words against what they believed was an attempt by Addis Ababa to interfere with Egypt’s water needs. Then Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, angrily stated that while he was not “calling for war” with Ethiopia, “Egypt’s water security cannot be violated at all,” that “all options are open,” and that Egyptians would not accept any projects on the Nile River that threatened their livelihood.

Then what happened in March 2015?

The 2015 agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan—with Sudan acting as an intermediary—represents an important but predictable shift in Cairo’s approach to the Nile River—that those colonial agreements are unsustainable. About 85 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River comes from the Ethiopian highlands through the Blue Nile; the rest comes from the White Nile. It was simply unrealistic and untenable for Egypt to believe that it could continue to prevent Ethiopia from using water resources located within its boundaries to meet the needs of its people. While it is true that Egyptians rely totally on the waters of the Nile River for all their needs, they must be sensitive to the development needs of the upstream riparian states, especially given the fact that the latter, particularly Ethiopia, are in a position to cause significant harm to the quantity and quality of water that flows into the Nile. Hence, the practical and more accommodating attitude taken by Egyptian leaders in their decision to endorse Addis Ababa’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project (GERDP), should be welcomed. However, Cairo needs to go further and sign and ratify the CFA without insisting on changes to Article 14(b) to guarantee Egypt the rights created by the Nile Waters agreements. With the CFA in place, all 11 riparian states can negotiate in good faith to agree an allocation formula that is acceptable to all of them and considered fair, equitable, and reasonable. As Africa becomes more and more affected by climate change, the continent’s various groups must agree to cooperate in the development of institutional structures that can enhance their ability to live together peacefully and allocate their natural resources, including water, in a fair and sustainable manner.

Further reading

Mwangi S. Kimenyi & John Mukum Mbaku, Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 2015).


[1] Ethiopia was not one of those colonies. The British colonies then included Kenya, Uganda, Tanganyika, and what was known as Anglo-Egyptian Sudan (a condominium under the control of Britain).

[2] The Nile River riparian states are Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan (Republic of), Tanzania, and Uganda. Egypt, Sudan, and South Sudan are downstream riparian states. South Sudan, however, has indicated that it does not recognize the 1959 bilateral agreement between Egypt and Sudan.

      
 
 




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