Patt Morrison models a headdress from the movie "The Lone Ranger."; Credit: Michelle Lanz/KPCC

Trust me – you’re going to be seeing a lot of these between now and Halloween.

I went to “The Lone Ranger” premiere last month, and outside the theater, Disneyland began selling a version of the Tonto headdress dreamed up by Johnny Depp and his folks for his role in the film, which I found to be a rollicking, ironic version of the classic action adventure with some very sober scenes evoking Native Americans’ tragic history.

The inspiration, Depp says, was artist Kirby Sattler’s interpretive 2006 painting “I Am Crow.”

Depp himself has claimed Native American ancestry, and the bird atop his bean plays a substantial if silent role in the proceedings. It is an interpretive painting, as I said, not a literal rendering of any tribal makeup. In the Sattler painting, the bird is flying above the figure’s head, not perched on it.

But the movie’s invested in storytelling, not the fine points of accuracy. If it had been, it wouldn’t have made the historical solecisms of relocating both Monument Valley and the transcontinental railroad to … Texas.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

Patt Morrison's ensemble for Aug 8, 2013.; Credit: Dave Coelho/KPCC

What shall we call this color scheme? How about ‘Manhattan Mermaid’?

The petrel blues, the turquoises, the aquas – and then that uptown/downtown black, in this case a black linen duster over a Peter Max-style splashy-print silk dress. The way the hem pools at the sides a bit reminds me of the cut of Pre-Raphaelite ladies’ tunics; I’d love to dress “period” for a week to see whether I’d like it.

Imagine, a week of hoop skirts … a week of 1950s tailleurs … a week of bustles … a week of hobble skirts … a week of liberated Pre-Raphaelite velvet gowns!

The hat is so unmistakably summer in fabric and color that it doesn’t get out of the hatbox as much as it should, poor thing. And the shoes – I did not get them together, honest, but even though the prints don’t match, it’s the dissonance that makes them work better together than if they had.

The fabric is a very textured canvas and printed like batik. [They are not the soul of comfort – oh what a dreadful pun, but is there any other kind of pun? – but they look smart hooked over the railing of a chair in a chic bistro, which is where I intend to take them!]

And the bracelets, one from a great-aunt who had a fine eye for jewelry – the turquoise is almost Persian, it’s so green, but it’s more likely to be American. The cuff is definitely Southwest, with the rope-pattern trim and the irregularly shaped bezels, although the turquoises themselves are symmetrical.

Because I’m left-handed, my right arm bears the singular honor of being “ornamental,” and bearing the burden of the bling.

Summer on, ladies!

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

USGS geologist Dr. Ben Gutierrez gave a guest lecture in the Environmental Science and Water Resource classes at Tennessee State University in October 2024. He discussed USGS coastal and marine science, as well as the many internship opportunities available through USGS. 

Will Davidson and his Minecraft creation, modeled off the Santa Cruz Mission; Credit: Steve Henn

Minecraft is a deceptively simple video game. You're dropped into a virtual world, and you get to build things. It's like a digital Lego set, but with infinite pieces.

Its simplicity makes it a big hit with kids, like 10-year old Will Davidson. Last year, Will built a Spanish mission for a school report. He modeled his off the Santa Cruz Mission. "I made a chapel over here," Davidson says. "I also have a bell tower."

After he turned in his report, he added a few things. Like skeleton archers. "And zombies ... and exploding things, and spiders, that try to kill you," he said.

Minecraft is popular with kids because they're free to create almost anything, says Ramin Shokrizade, a game designer.

Also, kids aren't manipulated into clicking buttons to buy add-ons within the game. In other games, designers give players a special power for free at first, then take it away and offer it back at a price.

Zynga, the creator of Farmville, calls this fun pain, according to Shokrizade. "That's the idea that, if you make the consumer uncomfortable enough, and then tell them that for money we'll make you less uncomfortable, then [they] will give us money," he says.

Kids, Shokrizade says, are especially susceptible to this — and Minecraft has a loyal following, in part, because it doesn't do it.

Susan Linn, from the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, agrees. She says a big reason she likes Minecraft is because after you purchase the game upfront, that's it.

"Parents don't have to worry that their kids are going to be targeted for more marketing," Linn says. "How forward-thinking!"

But Linn is worried. Microsoft bought Mojang, the company that created Minecraft, on Monday for $2.5 billion, and she says that any time a large company spends billions to acquire a smaller company, executives are bound start looking for new ways to get even more money out of it.

An image released by Google shows an early version of its driverless vehicle. The company has built several prototypes of the self-driving car.; Credit: /Google

California is one step closer this week to making the 1980s Hollywood fantasy of Knight Rider a 21st century reality because permits for self-driving cars issued by the Department of Motor Vehicles officially went into effect Tuesday. Now a handful of companies can test automated cars on public roads.

Buckle up — it's gonna be a wild ride.

John O'Dell is a Senior Editor at Edmunds.com, and he joins Alex Cohen to talk about what this means for the future of the driverless car industry.

 

In this file photo, California Gov. Jerry Brown speaks during a news conference on January 17, 2014 in San Francisco, California. Brown on Thursday signed a bill that more than triples the state's annual tax credit for film and TV production to $330 million.; Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Gov. Jerry Brown has headed to the cradle of the Hollywood film industry to sign legislation that more than triples the state's annual tax credit to $330 million a year for films and TV shows produced in California.

Brown says the increase is needed to help prevent other states and countries from hijacking film and TV production by offering their own lucrative incentives.

Brown signed the bill Thursday at the former Grauman's Chinese Theatre, where handprints and footprints of stars from the eras of Humphrey Bogart to Robert De Niro are embedded in concrete.

Under the new system, credit will be awarded based on the number of jobs a production creates and its overall positive impact on the state.

The historic cinema is now called the TCL Chinese Theatre IMAX.

Film tax credit doc

Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle Corporation, gestures as he makes a speech during the New Economy Summit 2014 in this file photo taken in Tokyo on April 9, 2014. The company said Thursday, September 18, 2014, that Ellison would step aside as CEO and become chairman and chief technology officer.; Credit: TORU YAMANAKA/AFP/Getty Images

Oracle says Larry Ellison is stepping aside as CEO of the company he founded. The business software maker promoted Safra Catz and Mark Hurd to replace him as co-CEOs.

Ellison will reclaim the title of chairman at Oracle and is also taking the role of chief technology officer. Oracle says Ellison wants to focus on product engineering, technology development and strategy. Jeff Henley, Oracle's chairman since January 2004, is now its vice chairman.

Catz and Hurd were co-presidents of the Redwood Shores, California, company. Catz will be in charge of the company's manufacturing, finance and legal functions. Hurd will be in charge of sales, service, and other global business units.

Ellison founded Oracle Corp. in 1977 and was its chairman from May 1995 to January 2004.

Last year was the second straight year the poverty rate stayed flat after four years of going up in the United States.; Credit: David McNew/Getty Images

Income in greater Los Angeles is rising – slightly - according to new American Community Survey numbers released Thursday from the Census Bureau, but greater L.A. still ranks as one of the poorest major metropolitan areas in the nation.

The L.A. area (defined as L.A., Long Beach and Anaheim) had a median household income of $58,869 last year, which is $804 more than the year before, but still $1540 under the 2010 level, during the first full year after the recession.

"These numbers paint a bleak picture for California,” said Marybeth Mattingly, a researcher at Stanford University’s Center on Poverty and Inequality.

Mattingly is particularly troubled by the child poverty rate, which was 25.3 percent in 2013, up from 22.6 percent in 2010.

“In the West, Hispanics have the highest poverty with nearly one in three Hispanic kids poor, and it's even a little higher for blacks” she said.

Nationally, last year was the second straight year the poverty rate stayed flat after four years of going up. Among big metro areas, the L.A. area had the highest poverty rate in the nation, tying Phoenix, Miami, and the Inland Empire. But that’s based upon a national poverty line of $23,550 for a family of four; When you take into account how much it really costs to live here, L.A. fares even worse.

“We find that Los Angeles stands out even more, unfortunately," said Sarah Bohn, a researcher at the Public Policy Institute of California. "Housing costs are really playing a big role in family budgets and being able to make ends meet.”

Bohn says these new numbers suggest we’re going in the right direction, but she wishes we’d move at a faster pace.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell talks during a press conference at the Hilton Hotel on Sept. 19, 2014 in New York City. Goodell spoke about the NFL's failure to address domestic violence, sexual assault and drug abuse in the league.; Credit: Elsa/Getty Images

Update 1:04 p.m. Goodell: 'Same mistakes can never be repeated'

Commissioner Roger Goodell says the NFL wants to implement new personal conduct policies by the Super Bowl. At a news conference Friday, Goodell made his first public statements in more than a week about the rash of NFL players involved in domestic violence. He did not announce any specific changes, but said he has not considered resigning.

"Unfortunately, over the past several weeks, we have seen all too much of the NFL doing wrong," he said. "That starts with me."

The league has faced increasing criticism that it has not acted quickly or emphatically enough concerning the domestic abuse cases.

The commissioner reiterated that he botched the handling of the Ray Rice case.

"The same mistakes can never be repeated," he said.

Goodell now oversees all personal conduct cases, deciding guilt and penalties.

He said he believes he has the support of the NFL's owners, his bosses.

"That has been clear to me," he said.

The Indianapolis Colts' Darius Butler was among those who tweeted criticism of the press conference:

Colts tweet 1

Colts tweet 2

The commissioner and some NFL teams have been heavily criticized for lenient or delayed punishment of Rice, Adrian Peterson and other players involved in recent domestic violence cases. Less than three weeks into the season, five such cases have made headlines, the others involving Greg Hardy, Ray McDonald and Jonathan Dwyer.

Vikings star running back Peterson, Carolina defensive end Hardy and Arizona running back Dwyer are on a special commissioner's exemption list and are being paid while they go through the legal process. McDonald, a defensive end for San Francisco, continues to practice and play while being investigated on suspicion of domestic violence.

As these cases have come to light, such groups as the National Organization of Women and league partners and sponsors have come down hard on the NFL to be more responsive in dealing with them. Congress also is watching to see how the NFL reacts.

In response to the criticism, the NFL announced it is partnering with a domestic violence hotline and a sexual violence resource center.

Goodell also said in a memo to the clubs late Thursday that within the next 30 days, all NFL and team personnel will participate in education sessions on domestic violence and sexual assault. The memo said the league will work with the union in providing the "information and tools to understand and recognize domestic violence and sexual assault."

The league will provide financial, operational and promotional support to the National Domestic Violence Hotline and the National Sexual Violence Resource Center.

12:07 p.m. Roger Goodell to break silence on domestic abuse and the NFL

Roger Goodell will make his first public statements in more than a week about the rash of NFL players involved in domestic violence when he holds a news conference Friday.

The NFL commissioner will address the league's personal conduct policy. The league has faced increasing criticism it has not acted quickly or emphatically enough concerning the domestic abuse cases.

His last public appearance was at a high school in North Carolina on Sept. 10.

The commissioner and some NFL teams have been heavily criticized for lenient or delayed punishment of Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and other players involved in recent domestic violence cases. Less than three weeks into the season, five such cases have made headlines, the others involving Greg Hardy, Ray McDonald and Jonathan Dwyer.

Vikings star running back Peterson, Carolina defensive end Hardy and Arizona running back Dwyer are on a special commissioner's exemption list and are being paid while they go through the legal process. McDonald, a defensive end for San Francisco, continues to practice and play while being investigated on suspicion of domestic violence.

As these cases have come to light, such groups as the National Organization of Women and league partners and sponsors have come down hard on the NFL to be more responsive in dealing with them. Congress also is watching to see how the NFL reacts.

In response to the criticism, the NFL announced it is partnering with a domestic violence hotline and a sexual violence resource center.

Goodell also said in a memo to the clubs late Thursday that within the next 30 days, all NFL and team personnel will participate in education sessions on domestic violence and sexual assault. The memo said the league will work with the union in providing the "information and tools to understand and recognize domestic violence and sexual assault."

The league will provide financial, operational and promotional support to the National Domestic Violence Hotline and the National Sexual Violence Resource Center.

"These commitments will enable both the hotline and NSVRC to help more people affected by domestic violence and sexual assault," Goodell said in the memo.

The National Domestic Violence Hotline provides domestic violence victims and survivors access to a national network of resources and shelters. It is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week in 170 languages. Goodell noted that the hotline received 84 percent more calls from Sept. 8-15, and the organization said more than 50 percent of those calls went unanswered because of lack of staff.

"The hotline will add 25 full-time advocates over the next few weeks that will result in an additional 750 calls a day being answered," he said.

NSVRC supports sexual violence coalitions across the United States. The NFL's initial support will be directed toward state coalitions to provide additional resources to sexual assault hotlines.

This story has been updated.

Bima Sugam India Federation is working to create a digital insurance marketplace in India.

OpenAI is preparing to launch "Operator," an AI agent designed to automate computer tasks such as coding and travel booking. Set for a research preview release in January through OpenAI's API, Operator marks the company's foray into autonomous AI agents.

Zoho CEO, Sridhar Vembu, predicts a resurgence of traditional jobs as AI automates production, making goods and services more affordable. He envisions higher wages for these revived roles, citing the demand for nature-friendly farming and live concert experiences.

Egan Food Technologies, a confectionery and baking process equipment manufacturer and service provider, will unveil at Pack Expo a new slab-bar forming line that is manufactured and serviced from the company’s headquarters in Grand Rapids, Mich. 

Dynamic Conveyor will display the DynaClean™ line to the food processing industry at Process Expo in Chicago for the first time

Ross Vacuum-rated High Speed Dispersers are a family of tank-mounted and raisable mixers featuring a laser-cut saw-tooth blade that runs to approximately 5,000 ft/min. 

Hauppauge, NY, January 13, 2014 – The Ross MegaShear Ultra-High Shear Mixer is designed for homogenizing dispersions and disintegrating large solid particles or droplets suspended in liquid. 

SK Food International introduces AncientGrisps to its extensive line of Premium Quality Ingredients.

Accurately weigh 0.5 to 50 gram portions at up to 120 per minute using the new Ishida Micro multihead weigher from Heat and Control, Inc.

The new division will focus on developing innovative snacks and capitalizing on emerging consumer trends.

POP Gourmet Foods, Tukwila, WA—a manufacturer of high-end popcorn products, as well as chips and croutons—maintains an international customer base in mass merchandise, warehouse/club, specialty and traditional grocery, foodservice, airlines and hotels, among others.

Mary's Gone Crackers MiNiS are bite-size, gluten-free graham crackers in the shape of the sun, the moon, stars and hearts.

A baker’s dozen is a familiar expression that has been around for generations and even centuries. Why has the baker’s dozen continued on as a perpetual phrase? For ideas, products, even industries to perpetuate, they must connect to a sense of truth or emotional certainty. There are two values the baker’s dozen phrase aligns with, no matter what the conception. Those two values are integrity and generosity.

Get ready for some very hard, yet rewarding, work. Being an agent of change for the better is always rewarding, no matter what the industry, profession or hobby. Anything worth accomplishing is going to take a lot of work—just look at what we have seen at the recent Summer Olympics.

I recently conducted an online survey, asking gluten-free consumers whether breads, rolls, sweet goods and other baked products on the market today meet their expectations for taste, texture and nutritional quality. 

If your customers require a system to eliminate all nonconforming products—in other words, a 100%-specification system—will your manufacturing plant survive? 

We toured Nonni’s Foods 45,000-sq.-ft. biscotti production facility in Ferndale, N.Y.

Proryza Crisps from RiceBran Technologies is an all-natural source of dietary fiber, vegetable protein, vitamins and minerals.

Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:41 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:57 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:39 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:58 GMT

Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:22 GMT

New Grundfos President and CEO Mads Nipper is ready to construct a new era at the Danish company.

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of 
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later 
today.  A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression 
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until 
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, 
and possibly inland.  After that, the ridge is expected to break 
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak 
steering currents late Friday through the weekend.  This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America.  By early next week, ridging should become 
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which 
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Very little change was made to the first 3 days 
of the track forecast.  Beyond day 3, there has been a notable 
westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC forecast is a bit 
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as 
the bulk of the latest model guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during 
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low 
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. 
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much 
land interaction with Honduras occurs.  The majority of the models 
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or 
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, 
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model 
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but 
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this 
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance 
envelope beyond 36 h.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

Publicado en 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

313 
WTNT54 KNHC 140849
TDSAT4

Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Discusión Número 3
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
400 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

La presentación del sistema por satélite ha ido mejorando
gradualmente. Las últimas estimaciones de intensidad subjetiva de
TAFB y SAB son T-2.0/30 kt. Basado en las estimaciones subjetivas de
Dvorak y la mejora en la estructura convectiva observada en las
imágenes de satélite, el sistema se actualiza a una depresión
tropical. Esto se ve respaldado por los datos del scatterómetro del
Indian Oceansat, que muestra una circulación bien definida. La
intensidad se establece en 30 kt según las estimaciones de Dvorak.

La Depresión Tropical Diecinueve se ha estado moviendo más rápido,
justo al sur del oeste, o 265/14 kt, aunque hoy debería comenzar a
disminuir la velocidad. Una cresta de nivel medio centrada al norte
de la depresión sobre el Estrecho de Florida debe mantenerla en
dirección oeste hasta el viernes, tomando el sistema cerca de la
costa norte del este de Honduras y, posiblemente, tierra adentro.
Después de eso, se espera que la cresta se rompa, y los modelos
coinciden en que el ciclón serpenteará en corrientes débiles hasta
el viernes hasta el fin de semana. Se espera que este movimiento
lento provoque que el sistema produzca fuertes lluvias en la misma
región, lo que probablemente provocará inundaciones que amenazan la
vida en zonas de América Central. Para principios de la próxima
semana, las perforaciones de crestas deben restablecerse sobre
Florida y el este del Golfo de México, lo que debería provocar que
el sistema se mueva hacia el noroeste a través de Belice y la
Península de Yucatán. Se hicieron muy pocos cambios en los primeros
3 días del pronóstico de trayectoria. Más allá del día 3, se ha
producido un notable cambio hacia el oeste en la guía de
trayectoria. El pronóstico del CNH está un poco al oeste del
pronóstico anterior más allá del día 3, pero no tan al oeste como la
mayor parte de la guía del último modelo.

Las condiciones ambientales son propicias para la intensificación
durante el próximo día o dos, mientras el sistema permanece sobre el
agua, con baja cizalladura vertical del viento y humedades
relativamente altas de nivel medio. Sin embargo, existe una
incertidumbre significativa en cuanto a la interacción entre tierras
y Honduras. La mayoría de los modelos muestran que el centro se
mueve apenas tierra adentro sobre Honduras, o lo estacionan justo en
la costa, entre las horas 48 y 72. Sin embargo, si el sistema se
mantiene en alta mar, como lo demuestra la última solución modelo
HWRF, podría aprovechar las condiciones atmosféricas y oceánicas
propicias y continuar fortaleciéndose. El último pronóstico de
intensidad del CNH es similar al anterior hasta las 36 h, pero luego
es de unos 5 kt más bajo que el pronóstico anterior, ya que este
pronóstico muestra una interacción más profunda con la tierra más
allá de las 36 h. El último pronóstico de intensidad del CNH está
por encima del límite máximo del envolvente de orientación más allá
de las 36 h.

MENSAJES CLAVE:

1. Hasta principios de la próxima semana, las fuertes lluvias
causarán inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazan la vida en porciones de América Central, particularmente
Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este de Guatemala y el oeste de
Nicaragua.

2. Se pronostica que la perturbación estará cerca de la fuerza de
huracán cuando se mueva cerca de la costa este de Honduras el
viernes y el sábado. Las vigilancias de huracán y los avisos de
tormenta tropical están vigentes en porciones de esa área.

3. Se pronostica que el sistema se acercará a Belice y a la
península de Yucatán en México con la fuerza de huracán o cerca de
ella a principios de la próxima semana, donde existe el riesgo de
marejadas ciclónicas peligrosas y vientos destructivos. Los
residentes de estas áreas deben monitorear las últimas
actualizaciones del pronóstico y asegurarse de que tienen su plan de
huracanes establecido.

4. Es demasiado pronto para determinar qué impactos podría causar el
sistema en porciones del este del Golfo de México, incluidos
Florida, los Cayos de Florida y Cuba durante la mitad de la próxima
semana. Los residentes de estas áreas deben monitorear regularmente
las actualizaciones del pronóstico.


POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
 12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
 24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
 36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...CERCA DE LA COSTA
 60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...CERCA DE LA COSTA
 72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
 96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...SOBRE EL AGUA
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Pronosticador Hagen

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Publicado en 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

986 
WTCA44 KNHC 141149
TASAT4

BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Advertencia Intermedia Número 3A
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
700 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

...SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA EN
HONDURAS HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA...


RESUMEN DE 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN...15.9N 82.2W
ALREDEDOR DE 250 MI...400 KM E DE ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ALREDEDOR DE 90 MI...150 KM AL NE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA
FRONTERA DE NIC/HON
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 265 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS VIVOS:

Una Vigilancia de Huracán está vigente para...
* Punta Castilla, a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Punta Sal a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está vigente para...
* Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua a Puerto Cabezas

Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles condiciones de
huracán dentro del área de vigilancia. Se suele emitir una
vigilancia 48 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia de vientos con
fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que dificultan o hacen los
preparativos al aire libre al exterior.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso dentro
de las 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de vigilancia,
generalmente dentro de las 48 horas.

Los intereses en otros lugares de Honduras, Guatemala, Belice y la
Península de Yucatán deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.

Para información de tormentas específica de su área, monitoree los
productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico nacional.


DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Diecinueve se localizó cerca de la latitud de 15.9 Norte, longitud
82.2 Oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 15
mph (24 km/h). Este movimiento debe continuar hasta hoy, llevando el
sistema a través del Mar Caribe occidental. Se espera que la
depresión se detenga y serpentee cerca de la costa norte de Honduras
hasta el viernes y hasta el fin de semana.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento en las
próximas 48 horas. Se pronostica que la depresión se convertirá en
tormenta tropical más tarde hoy y continuará fortaleciéndose si
permanece sobre el agua.

La presión central mínima estimada es de 1004 mb (29.65 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para la depresión tropical diecinueve se pueden
encontrar en el
Ciclón Tropical Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el
encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

LLUVIA: Hasta principios de la próxima semana, se esperan cantidades
de lluvia de 10 a 20 pulgadas con totales de tormenta aisladas
alrededor de 30 pulgadas sobre el norte de Honduras.Esta lluvia
provocará inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazarán la vida y potencialmente catastróficas, especialmente a
lo largo de la Sierra La Esperanza y cerca de ella.

En otras partes del resto de Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este
de Guatemala y el oeste de Nicaragua, se espera que la Depresión
Tropical de Diecinueve produzca de 5 a 10 pulgadas de lluvia con
totales localizados alrededor de 15 pulgadas hasta principios de la
próxima semana. Esto resultará en áreas de inundaciones repentinas,
tal vez significativas, junto con el potencial de deslizamientos de
tierra.

Para obtener una descripción completa del pronóstico de lluvia
asociado a la Depresión Tropical Diecinueve, consulte el Gráfico de
Lluvia Total de Tormentas del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,
disponible en
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

VIENTO: Son posibles condiciones de huracán dentro del área de
vigilancia para el viernes. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta
tropical en el área de aviso y es posible que se produzca en el área
de vigilancia a partir de hoy.

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles
de agua hasta entre 1 y 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea
normales a lo largo de la costa inmediata en áreas de vientos
terrestres a lo largo de la costa norte de Honduras. Cerca de la
costa, la marejada estará acompañada de olas grandes y destructivas.


PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 AM EST.

$$
Pronosticador Kelly


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

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