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Coronavirus plunges California into worst budget deficit in state history

California's state government faces a $54-billion budget deficit through next summer, according to an analysis released Thursday.




story

'That's when it changed.' Story of how 2009 team put IU baseball on the map

"I look at that group — it was not sexy at that time to play for Indiana. They made it sexy."

       




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Darius Leonard won't be happy unless he makes history with Colts

Leonard has made 284 tackles, 12 sacks and seven interceptions in his first two years, but says he only met 3 or 4 of his 15 goals last year.

       




story

These biting cartoons tell the story of the impeachment fight this week

Did Pelosi or Trump gain the upper hand?




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‘Black Widow’ trailer gives us a fallen Avenger whose origin story is very much alive

Scarlett Johansson is back for a solo movie, coming out May 1, 2020.




story

The five best lightsaber battles in Star Wars history

Darth versus Luke. A levitating Yoda. And the greatest duel of them all.




story

‘Watchmen’ was the boldest, blackest superhero story ever told on-screen. But what comes next?

The black comics audience should be more demanding after seeing what the HBO series accomplished.




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‘Arise: A Simple Story’ is a game of symbolism and the stages of life

“Arise: A Simple Story” coasts on its gentle visual language, but is a good option for those looking for a family-friendly game.




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Are we telling the right story of America?

Review of "This America" by Jill Lepore and "The Heartland" by Kristin L. Hoganson




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The Scaramucci story ends like all the others: With a Trump tweetstorm

Welcome to the Resistance, Mooch. Better late than never.




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How Trump’s failure to learn from history is making your whiskey a lot more expensive

It’s another way in which the president’s supposedly narrowly focused tariffs have trickled down.




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News24.com | International Covid-19 news: US job losses 'worst in history', 'critical' shortage of testing kits

All the latest Covid-19 updates from around the world.




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History of Machu Picchu

History of Machu Picchu

Archaeological evidence uncovered around the site suggests that the area was first used for agricultural purposes back in 760 B.C.

The war of Vilcambamba Pachacutec in 1440 established the first settlement at the site. It was called the Tahuantinsuyo Empire which was later followed by the formation of the government of Manco Capac.

It is thought that Machu Picchu was first inhabited by 300-1000 inhabitants, who were of the highest Class or "llactas".

The valleys around these areas were important for their agricultural contribution, however after death of the Emperor Pachacutec, it lost it's importance, with the establishment of new sites like Ollaytantambo and Vilcambamba. The building of these new sites by his successors, in more accessible terrain made Machu Picchu less appealing.

From 1527 to 1532, two brothers Huáscar and Atahualpa fought against each other in a civil war over the Inca Empire. Their father, Inca Huayna Capac had given each brother a section of the empire to manage, one in Huáscar in Cuzco and Atahualpa in Quito. When Huayna Capac and his heir, Ninan Cuyuchi, died somewhere between 1525 and 1527, the two brothers Atahualpa and Huáscar went to war over who should rule.  The population who had come to live in the Machu Picchu area from rural or remote locations left after the war ended to return to where they came from. Later another brother, Manco Inca was sent into exile in Vilcambamba, and Machu Picchu was deserted.

Antonio Raimondi was an Italian geographer and scientist from Milan who visited Machu Picchu in 1851. In 1867 Augusto Berns arrived to mine the site.

Hiram Bingham re-discovered the ruins in 1911. He documented and publicised his "discovery".

Hiram Bingham



  • Machu Picchu Inca Trail

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Sir David Attenborough and the BBC Studios Natural History Unit awarded Chatham House Prize 2019 for ocean advocacy

19 November 2019

The 2019 Chatham House Prize is awarded to Sir David Attenborough and Julian Hector, head of BBC Studios Natural History Unit, for the galvanizing impact of the Blue Planet II series on tackling ocean plastic pollution.

The Chatham House Prize is awarded to the person, persons or organization who is deemed to have made the most significant contribution to the improvement of international relations in the previous year. The presentation ceremony and panel discussion with the winners will be livestreamed on Wednesday.

The Blue Planet II series highlighted the damage caused by discarded plastics to the world’s oceans and marine wildlife. It is estimated that there are more than 150 million tonnes of plastic in the world’s oceans; resulting in the deaths of 1 million birds and 100,000 sea mammals each year. 

Dr Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House said: ‘Plastic pollution is one of the gravest challenges facing the world’s oceans, and undoubtedly an international issue. Sir David and the BBC Studios Natural History Unit played an instrumental role in helping to put this issue at the forefront of the public agenda. Blue Planet II spurred a passionate global response and generated clear behavioural and policy change.’

This year the G20 agreed on an international framework to address marine plastic litter, acknowledging the increasing urgency of the issue and the need for an international solution. This follows action from the UK government, including a plan to ban common plastic items and investment in global research.

See full award citation

Read more about Chatham House's research work in this area

Other nominees

Dr Niblett thanked Chatham House members for voting and acknowledged the outstanding achievements of the 2019 nominees:

Abiy Ahmed, prime minister of Ethiopia, nominated for his efforts to transform civic leadership and promote plural politics, free speech and peace in Ethiopia 

Katrín Jakobsdóttir, prime minister of Iceland, nominated for her commitment to gender equality and women’s financial inclusion in Iceland 

Event

The Prize was presented to Sir David and Julian Hector by Her Majesty The Queen at Chatham House on Wednesday 20 November.

Watch video from the event

For more information please contact

Chatham House Press Office
pressoffice@chathamhouse.org
+44 (0)207 957 5739

BBC Studios Natural History Unit Communications Manager
Lynn.li@bbc.co.uk
+44 (0) 7513 137893

About the Chatham House Prize

The Chatham House Prize is voted for by Chatham House members, following nominations from the institute’s staff. The award is presented on behalf of the institute's patron, Her Majesty the Queen, representing the non-partisan and authoritative character of the Prize.

The Chatham House Prize was launched in 2005. Previous recipients of the Prize include the Committee to Protect Journalists, Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos, president of Ghana John Kufuor, Médecins Sans Frontières and Melinda Gates, co-founder of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Chatham House is a world-leading policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world. We engage governments, the private sector, civil society and our members in open debate and private discussions about the most significant developments in international affairs.  Our research and policy ideas involve rigorous analysis of critical global, regional and country-specific challenges and opportunities.

About BBC Studios Natural History Unit 

BBC Studios Natural History Unit produces the world’s most iconic natural history programmes, such as Blue Planet II and Planet Earth II, which have been watched by more than a billion people globally. Ranging from technically challenging live shows and super-landmarks to long-running series and children’s content, The Natural History Unit programmes include Dynasties, Blue Planet Live, Springwatch, Animal Babies: First Year On Earth, Andy’s Dinosaur Adventures as well as the currently on air Seven Worlds, One Planet presented by Sir David Attenborough and third-party commissions for Discovery, Apple, Quibi, National Geographic and BBC America. 

The Natural History Unit is part of BBC Studios, a subsidiary of the BBC, which develops, produces and distributes bold, British content, making over 2,500 hours of content each year, operating in 22 markets globally and generating revenue of around £1.4bn. In the year to March 2019, it returned £243m to the BBC Group, complementing the BBC’s licence fee and enhancing programmes for UK audiences.




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The Human Plasma Proteome: History, Character, and Diagnostic Prospects

N. Leigh Anderson
Nov 1, 2002; 1:845-867
Reviews/Perspectives




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Why Britain’s 2019 Election Is Its Most Unpredictable in Recent History

7 November 2019

Professor Matthew Goodwin

Visiting Senior Fellow, Europe Programme
Leadership concerns and a collapse of traditional party loyalties make the December vote uncommonly volatile.

On 12 December, Britain will hold the most consequential election in its postwar history. The outcome of the election will influence not only the fate of Brexit but also the likelihood of a second referendum on EU membership, a second independence referendum in Scotland, the most economically radical Labour Party for a generation, Britain’s foreign and security policy and, ultimately, its position in the wider international order.

If you look only at the latest polls, then the outcome looks fairly certain. Ever since a majority of MPs voted to hold the election, the incumbent Conservative Party has averaged 38%, the opposition Labour Party 27%, the Liberal Democrats 16%, Brexit Party 10%, Greens 4% and Scottish National Party 3%. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his party continue to average an 11-point lead which, if this holds until the election, would likely deliver a comfortable majority.

Johnson can also point to other favourable metrics. When voters are asked who would make the ‘best prime minister’, a clear plurality (43%) say Johnson while only a small minority (20%) choose the Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Polls also suggest that, on the whole, Johnson is more trusted by voters than Corbyn to deal with Brexit, the economy and crime, while Jeremy Corbyn only tends to enjoy leads on health. All of this lends credence to the claim that Britain could be set for a Conservative majority and, in turn, the passing of a withdrawal agreement bill in early 2020.

But these polls also hide a lot of other shifts that are taking place and which, combined, make the 2019 general election unpredictable. One concerns leadership. While Boris Johnson enjoys stronger leadership ratings than Jeremy Corbyn, it should be remembered that what unites Britain’s current generation of party leaders is that they are all unpopular. Data compiled by Ipsos-MORI reveals that while Johnson has the lowest ratings of any new prime minister, Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn has the lowest ratings of any opposition leader since records began.

Another deeper shift is fragmentation. One irony of Britain’s Brexit moment is that ever since the country voted to leave the European Union its politics have looked more ‘European’. Over the past year, one of the world’s most stable two-party systems has imploded into a four-party race, with the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage’s strongly Eurosceptic Brexit Party both presenting a serious challenge to the two mainstream parties.

In the latest polls, for example, Labour and the Conservatives are attracting only 61 per cent of the overall vote, well down on the 80 per cent they polled in 2017. Labour is weakened by the fact that it is only currently attracting 53 per cent of people who voted Labour at the last election, in 2017. A large number of these 2017 Labour voters, nearly one in four, have left for the Liberal Democrats, who are promising to revoke Article 50 and ‘cancel Brexit’. This divide in the Remain vote will produce unpredictable outcomes at the constituency level.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Conservatives are grappling with a similar but less severe threat. Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party are attracting around one in ten people who voted Conservative in 2017, which will make Boris Johnson’s task of capturing the crucial ‘Labour Leave’ seats harder. There is clear evidence that Johnson has been curbing Farage’s appeal, but it remains unclear how this rivalry on the right will play out from one seat to the next.

One clue as to what happens next can be found in those leadership ratings. While 80 per cent of Brexit Party voters back Johnson over Corbyn, only 25 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters back Corbyn over Johnson. Johnson may find it easier to consolidate the Leave vote than Corbyn will find the task of consolidating the Remain vote.

All of this reflects another reason why the election is unpredictable: volatility. This election is already Britain’s fifth nationwide election in only four years. After the 2015 general election, 2016 EU referendum, 2017 general election and 2019 European parliament elections, Britain’s political system and electorate have been in a state of almost continual flux. Along the way, a large number of voters have reassessed their loyalties.

As the British Election Study makes clear, the current rate of ‘vote-switching’ in British politics, where people switch their vote from one election to the next, is largely unprecedented in the post-war era. Across the three elections held in 2010, 2015 and 2017, a striking 49 per cent of people switched their vote.

This is not all about Brexit. Attachment to the main parties has been weakening since the 1960s. But Brexit is now accelerating this process as tribal identities as ‘Remainers’ or ‘Leavers’ cut across traditional party loyalties. All this volatility not only gives good reason to expect further shifts in support during the campaign but to also meet any confident predictions about the election result with a healthy dose of scepticism.




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History for Fantasy Writers: Do You Have a Moment?

This is the second part of a two-part article on how time was perceived and measured in ancient and medieval Europe.

In the last installment of History for Fantasy Writers I addressed years, months, weeks, and days. Now I turn to shorter lengths: days, hours and still shorter periods. I’ll close with a more general consideration of time and the awareness of time.

Hours

We carve the day into twenty-four hours, but in the past the hour was a malleable thing. There were twelve hours of daylight and twelve hours of night, regardless of the season. The day began with zero at sunrise. Then came the first hour, the second, and so on. The twelfth hour fell at sunset. A winter daylight hour was therefore shorter than a summer hour.

This feels a little nuts at first, but it’s actually pretty sensible. At least the word midnight makes sense in that system—it’s the mid-point of the night, regardless of how long is the night. All we have to do is abandon the notion that an hour is a unit of time, to consider it as marking portions of a day.

Continue reading History for Fantasy Writers: Do You Have a Moment? at Mythic Scribes.



  • History
  • history for fantasy writers
  • how time was perceived and measured

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History for Fantasy Writers: Bank on It

Banks appear in a number of fantasy stories. George Martin’s Iron Bank is probably the best known, but banks and banking families can be found all around the fantasy landscape, especially in modern works. For writers considering including banks and bankers in their own stories, knowing something of the history can help add detail and color.

Money Changers

Europe in the High Middle Ages, say around 1100, had a bewildering variety of coinage (see my article on medieval money), a crazy cobweb of overlapping public authority, and an unreliable network of roads. Banking arose in response to the need of merchants to conduct large-scale business at a distance in that environment.

As you might guess, with so many different coins, knowing how to convert from one currency to another was a fairly technical business. That business was handled by a money changer. In Florence and other north Italian towns, the money changers set up shop at markets and near merchant establishments—any place where there was plenty of commercial traffic. The benches they sat on are called banca in Italian. That’s where we get the term bank.

Money changers knew more than just how to convert currencies.

Continue reading History for Fantasy Writers: Bank on It at Mythic Scribes.



  • History
  • history for fantasy writers

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Power and Story: What is the Future for Journalism?




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Undercurrents: Episode 28 – The History of Women at Chatham House




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Screening Room: Parts of a Circle - History of the Karabakh Conflict




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Deep history in western China reveals how humans can enhance biodiversity

Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve is one of China's most popular tourist attractions, drawing more than five million visitors per year to the sparsely populated mountains of north-western Sichuan. The reserve has been home to farmer-herders for thousands of years, but to conserve the biodiversity and scenic quality of the reserve, park policies prohibit residents from farming, herding and wood cutting.




story

The End of Neoliberalism and the Rebirth of History

Ordinary citizens felt like they had been sold a bill of goods. They were right to feel conned.




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CBD News: The Natural History Museum (United Kingdom) launches its official International Year of Biodiversity website: www.biodiversityislife.net

http://www.biodiversityislife.net/




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CBD News: Statement by Mr Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, on the occasion of the United Nations and the American Museum of Natural History Event on "The Role of Biodiversity and Healthy Ecosystems in Sup




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CBD Communiqué: London's world renowned Natural History Museum joins forces with CBD for the implementation of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.




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CBD News: Indigenous peoples and local communities often refer to this Earth as Pachamama or "Mother Earth." The fate of Pachamama and of humans has been shaped over a history that has been intertwined.




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CBD News: It is a pleasure to join you here in Kuala Lumpur for the fourth session of the IPBES Plenary. We come together for a very exciting moment in the history of IPBES, when the Plenary will be presented with the first two assessments for its accepta




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History show heads to Kowloon City

The Leisure & Cultural Services Department’s Community Oral History Theatre Project will be launched in Kowloon City District on January 15.

 

An oral history theatre performance and a sharing session will kick off the project.

 

The performance will feature an excerpt from the production of Sai Kung, Therefore I Live.

 

It will be held at Hung Hom Community Hall.

 

Admission is free with tickets.

 

Click here for details.




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A Brief History of the Development of Diabetes Medications

John R. White
May 1, 2014; 27:82-86
From Research to Practice




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The story of three African slaves during Spanish colonialism, as told by their bones

(Cell Press) In a study appearing April 30 in the journal Current Biology, scientists tell the story of three 16th century African slaves identified from a mass burial site in Mexico City. Using a combination of genetic, osteological, and isotope analyses, the scientists determined from where in Africa they were likely captured, the physical hardships they experienced as slaves, and what novel pathogens they may have carried with them across the Atlantic.




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African skeletons from early colonial Mexico tell the story of first-generation slaves

(Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History) Three 16th-century skeletons from a mass burial in Mexico City highlight the role of the transatlantic slave trade in introducing and disseminating new pathogens to the Americas. Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History and Escuela Nacional de Antropología e Historia in Mexico analyzed skeletal features, genetic data and isotopes to explore the life history of three enslaved Africans and explore the wide-ranging impacts of massive forced migration.




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Differentiation of Diabetes by Pathophysiology, Natural History, and Prognosis

Jay S. Skyler
Feb 1, 2017; 66:241-255
Perspectives in Diabetes




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Screening Room: Parts of a Circle - History of the Karabakh Conflict

Members Event

18 February 2020 - 6:00pm to 8:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Jenny Norton, Producer, Parts of a Circle: History of the Karabakh Conflict
Famil Ismayilov, Journalist
Leon Aslanov, Middle East Analyst, Integrity UK
Chair: Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House; Director, Caucasus Programme, Conciliation Resources

Once an autonomous region populated mainly by Armenians in Soviet Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh, is a contested territory in the Caucasus. Since the late 1980s, its contested status has driven popular mobilization among Armenians and Azerbaijanis and an all-out war between 1992-94. After a quarter-century of enmity and military build-up, in 2019, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders agreed to ‘prepare their populations for peace’ but how would this work in practice?

Parts of a Circle: History of the Karabakh Conflict (2019) chronicles the disputed history of the decades-old conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Supported by the European Union and based on a series of three documentary films jointly produced over four years by Armenian and Azerbaijani production teams, the film showcases journalistic cooperation in bridging societies in conflict.

The screening was followed by a panel discussion that will explore the state of the conflict and the efforts to end it. Why have efforts to resolve the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia not been successful? How can both sides build grassroot support for peace after years of fomenting hatred? And what can the international community do in support?

A short film about the making of the documentary can be seen here.

Members Events Team




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Pure and profound love – The Timolls’ story

“As the large wooden doors of the chapel opened and I saw my bride for the first time, our minds and hearts communicated in a way only love could evoke.” This sincere sentiment, echoed by the proud groom, only expresses a drop in the ocean of...




story

Brown is proud of Braves' rich history

It didn't come as a surprise to anyone when Dana Brown left the Blue Jays as a special assistant to general manager Ross Atkins to join the Braves as vice president of scouting.




story

Tell me a story

How can asking patient to tell us their story improve healthcare? Helen Morant, content lead at BMJ, talks us through her project getting healthcare professionals to sit down with patients and record their conversations, and what on earth this has to do with quality improvement. We also hear some of the recordings she has gathered through the...




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Talk evidence covid-19 update: natural history of covid, include patients in guidelines

For the next few months Talk Evidence is going to focus on the new corona virus pandemic. There is an enormous amount of uncertainty about the disease, what the symptoms are, fatality rate, treatment options, things we shouldn't be doing. We're going to try to get away from the headlines and talk about what we need to know - to hopefully give you...




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A walk down St Catherine’s history

Parish Histories of Jamaica Project, a publication by the JN Foundation in collaboration with the Department of History and Archaeology at The University of the West Indies, Mona, was launched recently. Jenny Jemmott of Department of History and...




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Curating the history of a people

Redlining a Holocaust is a rigorously researched oeuvre that establishes Dòwòti Désir as one of the most important figures in contemporary African thought. Redlining is an imaginative and monumental undertaking, a literary, visual, and oratorical...




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Lamb's health a big spring storyline for D-backs

There will be a lot of attention paid to D-backs infielder Jake Lamb when Spring Training gets underway. Lamb, of course, is coming off a season that was almost entirely lost to a left shoulder injury. His healthy return would play a big part in helping the D-backs' offense overcome the departures of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock during the offseason.




story

Generics have a chequered recent history




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Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Migration History Marked by Crises and Restrictions

One of the least developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has experienced significant migration outflows and inflows tied to political and economic crises in recent decades. While most Congolese migrants head to neighboring countries, destinations have diversified, with an uptick in those leaving for opportunities in Europe and beyond. This country profile explores historical and contemporary patterns of migration to and from DR Congo.




story

Ahmaud Arbery and the Racist History of U.S. Loitering Laws

Source:

Ahmaud Arbery went for a jog in a neighborhood of Brunswick, Georgia, a coastal town south of Savannah, in late February. He paused to look around a construction site of a new house. Then, in the middle of his run, a newly public video reveals, he was confronted by Gregory and Travis McMichael, a father-son duo. The father, Gregory, was a retired police officer who'd seen Arbery and decided he looked like a local burglary suspect.






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Navajo Nation Reels Under Weight of Coronavirus and History of Neglect

Source:

The Navajo Nation now has the highest per-capita coronavirus infection rate after New York and New Jersey, but it has a fraction of the resources to treat and prevent the pandemic. "This has got to end," said president Jonathan Nez after federal relief funds arrived six weeks after they were promised and a week after the U.S. government missed a congressional deadline for distribution.






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Lactation Duration and Long-term Risk for Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Women With a History of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

OBJECTIVE

We examined the association of lactation duration with incident type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We monitored 4,372 women with a history of GDM participating in the Nurses’ Health Study II for incident type 2 diabetes over 25 years up to 2017. Lactation history was obtained through follow-up questionnaires to calculate lactation duration. Follow-up blood samples were collected from a subset of these women at median age of 58 years through the Diabetes & Women’s Health Study.

RESULTS

We documented 873 incident cases of type 2 diabetes during 87,411 person-years of follow-up. Longer duration of lactation was associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes for both total lactation (hazard ratio 1.05 [95% CI 0.83–1.34] for up to 6 months, 0.91 [0.72–1.16] for 6–12 months, 0.85 [0.67–1.06] for 12–24 months, and 0.73 [0.57–0.93] for >24 months, compared with 0 months; P-trend = 0.003) and exclusive breastfeeding (P-trend = 0.002) after adjustment for age, ethnicity, family history of diabetes, parity, age at first birth, smoking, diet quality, physical activity, and prepregnancy BMI. Longer duration of lactation was also associated with lower HbA1c, fasting plasma insulin, and C-peptide concentrations among women without type 2 diabetes at follow-up (all adjusted P-trend ≤0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Longer duration of lactation is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes and a favorable glucose metabolic biomarker profile among women with a history of GDM. The underlying mechanisms and impact on diabetes complications, morbidity, and mortality remain to be determined.




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The Story of Philosophy by Will Durant

“And last are the few whose delight is in meditation and understanding; who yearn not for goods, nor for victory, but for knowledge; who leave both market and battlefield to lose themselves in the quiet clarity of secluded thought; whose will is a light rather than a fire, whose haven is not power but truth: these are the men of wisdom, who stand aside unused by the world.”
― Will Durant, The Story of Philosophy

Considered one of the finest introductions to the lives and opinions of some of the world’s greatest Western philosophers, Will Durant’s The Story of Philosophy (1926), was such a huge success (it sold more than two million copies in less than three decades), that it gave him the necessary and sufficient leisure, for almost fifty years, to work on his critically acclaimed 11-volume series, The Story of Civilization. Given the contributions he had made for the writing of popular history and philosophy, and championing freedom and human rights, he was awarded the Pulitzer Prize in 1968 and the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 1977.

Please join us at Brooklyn Book Talk, for a discussion on philosophy and philosophers such as Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Bacon, Spinoza, Voltaire, Kant, Schopenhauer, Spencer, Nietzsche, Bergson, Croce, Russell, Santayana, James and Dewey, whose ideas have formed the enduring foundations of Western civilization. Philosophy, which has also been defined as  “what we don’t know,” comes alive in the delightful prose and passion of Will Durant who towards the end of his life was humble enough to admit: “Sixty years ago I knew everything; now I know nothing; education is a progressive discovery of our own ignorance.”




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Thinking with AND: Insights from KIND’s story

“I’m a confused Mexican Jew.” So says Daniel Lubetzky, Founder and CEO of KIND Snack, in his very personal interview with Columbia faculty member David Rogers at BRITE ’16. Their discussion touched on the many ideas behind KIND Snacks, from the beginnings of the company, to the strategic thinking that forces Lubetzky to stay away […]




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Can We Replay History?


After the kids' party games and the birthday cake came the action-packed Steve McQueen movie. My friend's parents had rented a movie projector. They hooked up the reel and let it roll. But the high point came later when they ran the movie backwards. Bullets streamed back into guns, blows were retracted and fallen protagonists recoiled into action. The mechanism that pulls the celluloid film forward for normal showing, can pull the film in the reverse direction, rolling it back onto the feeder reel and showing the movie in reverse.

If you chuck a round pebble off a cliff it will fall in a graceful parabolic arch, gradually increasing its speed until it hits the ground. The same pebble, if shot from the point of impact, at the terminating angle and speed, will gracefully and obligingly retrace its path. (I'm ignoring wind and air friction that make things a bit more complicated.)

Deterministic mechanisms, like the movie reel mechanism or the law of gravity, are reversible.

History is different. Peoples' behavior is influenced by what they know. You pack an umbrella on a trip to the UK. Google develops search algorithms not search parties because their knowledge base is information technology not mountain trekking. Knowledge is powerful because it enables rational behavior: matching actions to goals. Knowledge transforms futile fumbling into intelligent behavior.

Knowledge underlies intelligent behavior, but knowledge is continually expanding. We discover new facts and relationships. We discover that things have changed. Therefore tomorrow's knowledge-based behavior will, to some extent, be unpredictable today because tomorrow's discoveries cannot be known today. Human behavior has an inherent element of indeterminism. Intelligent learning behavior cannot be completely predicted.

Personal and collective history does not unfold like a pre-woven rug. Human history is fundamentally different from the trajectory of a pebble tossed from a cliff. History is the process of uncovering the unknown and responding to this new knowledge. The existence of the unknown creates the possibility of free will. The discovery of new knowledge introduces indeterminism and irreversibility into history, as explained by the philosophers G.L.S. Shackle and Karl Popper.

Nonetheless history is not erratic because each increment of new knowledge adds to the store of what was learned before. Memory is not perfect, either of individuals or groups, but it is powerful. History happens in historical context. For instance, one cannot understand the recent revolutions and upheavals in the Arab world from the perspective of 18th century European revolutions; the historical backgrounds are too different, and the outcomes in the Middle East will be different as well. Innovation, even revolution, is spurred by new knowledge laid over the old. A female municipal official slapped a Tunisian street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi. That slap crystalized Mr Bouazizi's knowledge of his helpless social impotence and lit the match with which he immolated himself and initiated conflagrations around the Mideast. New knowledge acts like thruster engines on the inertial body of memory. What is emerging in the Mideast is Middle Eastern, not European. What is emerging is the result of new knowledge: of the power of networking, of the mortality of dictators, of the limits of coercion, of the power of new knowledge itself and the possibilities embedded in tomorrow's unknowns.

Mistakes are made, even with the best intentions and the best possible knowledge. Even if analysts knew and understood all the actions of all actors on the stage of history, they still cannot know what those people will learn tomorrow and how that new knowledge will alter their behavior. Mistakes are made because history does not unwind like a celluloid reel.

That's not to say that analysts are never ignorant, negligent, stupid or malicious. It's to say that all actions are, in a sense, mistakes. Or, the biggest mistake of all is to think that we can know the full import of our actions. We cannot, because actions are tossed, like pebbles, into the dark pit of unknown possible futures. One cannot know all possible echoes, or whether some echo might be glass-shatteringly cataclysmic.

Mistakes can sometimes be corrected, but never undone. History cannot be run backwards, and you never get a second chance. Conversely, every instant is a new opportunity because the future is always uncertain. Uncertainty is the freedom to err, and the opportunity to create and discover. 




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We're Just Getting Started: A Glimpse at the History of Uncertainty


We've had our cerebral cortex for several tens of thousands of years. We've lived in more or less sedentary settlements and produced excess food for 7 or 8 thousand years. We've written down our thoughts for roughly 5 thousand years. And Science? The ancient Greeks had some, but science and its systematic application are overwhelmingly a European invention of the past 500 years. We can be proud of our accomplishments (quantum theory, polio vaccine, powered machines), and we should worry about our destructive capabilities (atomic, biological and chemical weapons). But it is quite plausible, as Koestler suggests, that we've only just begun to discover our cerebral capabilities. It is more than just plausible that the mysteries of the universe are still largely hidden from us. As evidence, consider the fact that the main theories of physics - general relativity, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics - are still not unified. And it goes without say that the consilient unity of science is still far from us.

What holds for science in general, holds also for the study of uncertainty. The ancient Greeks invented the axiomatic method and used it in the study of mathematics. Some medieval thinkers explored the mathematics of uncertainty, but it wasn't until around 1600 that serious thought was directed to the systematic study of uncertainty, and statistics as a separate and mature discipline emerged only in the 19th century. The 20th century saw a florescence of uncertainty models. Lukaczewicz discovered 3-valued logic in 1917, and in 1965 Zadeh introduced his work on fuzzy logic. In between, Wald formulated a modern version of min-max in 1945. A plethora of other theories, including P-boxes, lower previsions, Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized information theory and info-gap theory all suggest that the study of uncertainty will continue to grow and diversify.

In short, we have learned many facts and begun to understand our world and its uncertainties, but the disputes and open questions are still rampant and the yet-unformulated questions are endless. This means that innovations, discoveries, inventions, surprises, errors, and misunderstandings are to be expected in the study or management of uncertainty. We are just getting started.