new

IMF Needs New Thinking to Deal with Coronavirus

27 April 2020

David Lubin

Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme
The IMF faces a big dilemma in its efforts to support the global economy at its time of desperate need. Simply put, the Fund’s problem is that most of the $1tn that it says it can lend is effectively unusable.

2020-04-27-IMF-Virtual-News

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during a virtual news conference on April 15, 2020. Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

There were several notable achievements during last week’s Spring meetings. The Fund’s frank set of forecasts for world GDP growth are a grim but valuable reminder of the scale of the crisis we are facing, and the Fund’s richer members will finance a temporary suspension on payments to the IMF for 29 very poor countries.

Most importantly, a boost to the Fund’s main emergency facilities - the Rapid Credit Facility and the Rapid Financing Instrument - now makes $100bn of proper relief available to a wide range of countries. But the core problem is that the vast bulk of the Fund’s firepower is effectively inert.

This is because of the idea of 'conditionality', which underpins almost all of the IMF’s lending relationships with member states. Under normal circumstances, when the IMF is the last-resort lender to a country, it insists that the borrowing government tighten its belt and exercise restraint in public spending.

This helps to achieve three objectives. One is to stabilise the public debt burden, to ensure that the resources made available are not wasted. The second is to limit the whole economy’s need for foreign exchange, a shortage of which had prompted a country to seek IMF help in the first place. And the third is to ensure that the IMF can get repaid.

Role within the international monetary system

Since the IMF does not take any physical collateral from countries to whom it is lending, the belt-tightening helps to act as a kind of collateral for the IMF. It helps to maximise the probability that the IMF does not suffer losses on its own loan portfolio — losses that would have bad consequences for the Fund’s role within the international monetary system.

This is a perfectly respectable goal. Walter Bagehot, the legendary editor of The Economist, established modern conventional wisdom about managing panics. Relying on a medical metaphor that feels oddly relevant today, he said that a panic 'is a species of neuralgia, and according to the rules of science you must not starve it.' 

Managing a panic, therefore, requires lending to stricken borrowers 'whenever the security is good', as Bagehot put it. The IMF has had to invent its own form of collateral, and conditionality is the result. The problem, though, is that belt-tightening is a completely inappropriate approach to managing the current crisis.

Countries are stricken not because they have indulged in any irresponsible spending sprees that led to a shortage of foreign exchange, but because of a virus beyond their control. Indeed, it would seem almost grotesque for the Fund to ask countries to cut spending at a time when, if anything, more spending is needed to stop people dying or from falling into a permanent trap of unemployment.

The obvious solution to this problem would be to increase the amount of money that any country can access from the Fund’s emergency facilities well beyond the $100bn now available. But that kind of solution would quickly run up against the IMF’s collateral problem.

The more the IMF makes available as 'true' emergency financing with few or no strings attached, the more it begins to undermine the quality of its loan portfolio. And if the IMF’s senior creditor status is undermined, then an important building block of the international monetary system would be at risk.

One way out of this might have been an emergency allocation of Special Drawing Rights, a tool last used in 2009. This would credit member countries’ accounts with new, unconditional liquidity that could be exchanged for the five currencies that underpin the SDR: the dollar, the yen, the euro, sterling and the renminbi. That will not be happening, though, since the US is firmly opposed, for reasons bad and good.

So in the end the IMF and its shareholders face a huge problem. It either lends more money on easy terms without the 'collateral' of conditionality, at the expense of undermining its own balance sheet - or it remains, in systemic terms, on the sidelines of this crisis.

And since the legacy of this crisis will be some eye-watering increases in the public debt burdens of many emerging economies, the IMF’s struggle to find a way to administer its medicine will certainly outlive this round of the coronavirus outbreak.

This article is a version of a piece which was originally published in the Financial Times




new

Episode 11 - The Internet of Dating Apps (IoDA): Apple Macbook news, Google antitrust & dating apps

This week host Matt Egan is rejoined by Macworld.co.uk acting editor David Price to chat about Apple's latest Macbook announcements. Then online editor at ComputerworldUK Christina Mercer jumps in to give a break down of Google's fight with the EU over antitrust infringements (13:00). Finally, ex-dating app user Scott Carey, online editor at Techworld.com gives a state of the union on dating apps, from Tinder to Bumble to Happn, if they are good for society and which one is set to corner the market (27:00).  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 19 - The Internet of Xbox 'Hank' Scorpio (IoXHS) LinkedIn, Xbox vs Playstation & WWDC news

Host Matt Egan is joined by Online Editor at Techworld.com Scott Carey to break down Microsoft's mega acquisition of LinkedIn. Staff Writer at PC Advisor Chris joins in to discuss all of the news coming out of E3 and how Xbox and Playstation are set to battle it out again this summer, or will Nintendo and Zelda steal the show? (13:00). Finally, David Price comes on to talk about all of the news coming out of Apple's WWDC developer conference this week, from Hair Force One to watchOS, tvOS, macOS and iOS (26:30) And please do share, rate and review the UK Tech Weekly Podcast.  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 55 - The Internet of Leaking Everything (IoLE) New iPads, Vault 7 and Nintendo Switch woes

The big story of the week is Wikileaks' CIA data dump, and we sandwich that topic between Apple's upcoming event and Nintendo Switch hardware issues. Lewis Painter kicks things off with Apple's (fingers crossed) late March event where we hope to see iPads, iMacs and get our six monthly fix of Jony Ive product videos. Then (13 minutes) Tamlin Magee tackles Vault 7 and the CIA's apparent ability to take control of iPhones and TVs, bypassing encryption. Will continuous leaks change anything? Finally (26 minutes) Dom Preston talks about his time over the last few weeks playing Zelda on the Nintendo Switch and why we should be a bit concerned about dodgy controllers.  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 63 - The Internet of the French (IotF) New Surface Pro and Netflix vs Cannes

This week we dive into the new Surface Pro with Digital Arts' Neil Bennett. Who is it for and is it that different to the last one? And are 2 in 1 devices really the future of computing? Then Techworld's Scott Carey, fresh back from Cannes, discusses why the French film industry booed at a Netflix film - why was it there in the first place? Is the film industry being that affected by tech giants like Amazon? Tech Advisor's Dom Preston chimes in to let us know. Finally, we all quickly nerded out about Alien: Covenant. Mild spoiler alert!  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 67 - The Internet of Netflix and chill (IoNaC) 100m subs, phone news and Google Glass returns

A classic edition of the pod as we hark back to the hallowed three topic format. Henry Burrell hosts David Price, Scott Carey and Chris Martin to ask just how Netflix got so popular. Will it sustain it though? Windows Phone is also pretty much actually dead but the funeral march is long. Other phone stuff includes the hallowed iPhone 8, the demise of Vertu and Nokia not really being Nokia. David then tells us why Google Glass is back, what it means for the enterprise, and why didn't they realise the first time round that it wasn't a consumer play?  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 70 - The Internet of tricky surnames (IoTS) Uber's new CEO and new phone chat

Scott Carey necessarily tries to get his pronunciation game on fleek to deliver the latest Uber news - there's a new CEO in town, and it isn't a woman. Should it have been? He tells Henry Burrell what's next for the company. Then roles are reversed as Henry updates Scott on the Galaxy Note 8, LG V30 and September 12's very own iPhone 8 - will it be called that? Will anyone spend £1,000 on it?  


See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 73 - The Internet of Electric Sheep (IoES) Facebook's blunder, the new Kindle and Blade Runner 2049

Episode 73 sees David Price lead Scott Carey, Miriam Harris and Henry Burrell into a critique of Mark Zuckerberg's decision to go into a VR tour of Puerto Rico. Disaster tourism at its finest/worst.


Henry then discusses the new Kindle Oasis, which for the firs time is waterproof - but very expensive and quietly released.


Finally we all chip in to ask why Blade Runner 2049 is quite so overtly sexist in its portrayal of women. There be spoilers.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 79 - The Internet of New Year (IoNY) Meltdown & Spectre, iPhone batteries, iMac Pro and the VFX Bafta noms

2018 lands with a distinct thud as Charlotte Jee tackles Meltdown and Spectre, David Price wrestles with Apple's batteries and its new iMac Pro, before Miriam Harris works through the Bafta nominations for visual effects. Henry Burrell leads us down the rabbit hole.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 86 - The Internet of Education (IoE) New iPads for schools and the Huawei P20

Sheriff Scott Carey rounds up his two deputies in David Price and Henry Burrell for a quick-fire two topic pod. Apple launched a new cheaper iPad this week based around its education play - but can schools afford them and are Chromebooks a better option?


Then we discuss the new Huawei P20 and P20 Pro. Notches, three cameras but competitive pricing make the new Android flagship an interesting option.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 87 - The Internet of Snoozing (IoS) New Gmail features, 'Chat' and AMD

A double Google header as Henry Burrell leads Scott Carey and Sean Bradley down the tech rabbit hole. Alphabet's most famous outlet has redesigned Gmail for desktop, but what does that mean for businesses and consumers. Will anyone notice?


Then what is Chat? Not Google Chat or Android Chat, mind - just Chat. Will the Google-led initiative really transform text messaging on Android or is it doomed to forever to be a fragmented mess?


Sean then talks us through the latest AMD processors to challenge Intel. Intel hasn't had the best of year's after Apple announced it is going solo. Is there a change afoot?

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 93 - The Internet of Newsworthy Stuff (IoNS) Uber in London, FB crypto and BlackBerry Key2

With Germany out of the World Cup what better way to celebrate than with a triptych of tech news'n'views? Henry Burrell hears from Scott Carey on Uber's London license while Sean Bradley explains why Facebook banned, and then allowed, cryptocurrency ads.


Henry then shows off the new BlackBerry and a collection of other phones that Scott finds insulting and ridiculous.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 98 - The Internet of Banning Idiots (IoBI) Infowars, new phone hype and the Millennium Dome

This week on the UK Tech Weekly Podcast our host Scott Carey talks to Macworld editor David Price about the ever-controversial Alex Jones and why the big tech companies are finally stepping up their efforts to ban him from their platforms. Editors note: we recorded this on Thursday before Twitter finally started to take some measures against Jones, without outright banning him.


Next our resident phone nerd and consumer tech editor at Tech Advisor Henry Burrell talks about the upcoming Samsung Galaxy Note 9, the latest iPhone X rumours and how Apple and Google are trying to make you use your phone less.


Lastly Techworld editor Charlotte Jee takes us on a trip down memory lane to talk about the utopian vision of the Millennium Experience, how it reflected the values of a New Labour government and its legacy.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 102 - The Internet of Tennis Max (IoTM) Apple event special, new iPhones and Apple Watch

A quick-fire reaction Apple special, recorded the morning after new iPhones and an Apple Watch were announced at an event in California.


Henry Burrell joins David Price, Ashleigh Macro and Scott Carey to discuss which products we'll be buying, avoiding and coveting over the Christmas period.


Is the new iPhone named terribly? Is it an upgrade at all? What wasn't announced? And does Scott give the new Apple Watch any praise at all? It's all here.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

Episode 104 - The Internet of Circles (IoC) RIP Google+, Pixel 3 and new tech in films

This week our host Scott Carey catches up on the Google+ breach news and the final demise of the doomed social media network before being joined by consumer technology editor at Tech Advisor, Henry Burrell, to talk about Google's latest batch of smartphones: the Pixel 3 and Pixel 3 XL.


Then Techworld reporter Tamlin Magee joins to talk about the technology-related films screening during the London Film Festival this month and his hopes for more utopian tech-flecked stories in the future.

 

See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.




new

IMF Needs New Thinking to Deal with Coronavirus

27 April 2020

David Lubin

Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance Programme
The IMF faces a big dilemma in its efforts to support the global economy at its time of desperate need. Simply put, the Fund’s problem is that most of the $1tn that it says it can lend is effectively unusable.

2020-04-27-IMF-Virtual-News

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaks during a virtual news conference on April 15, 2020. Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

There were several notable achievements during last week’s Spring meetings. The Fund’s frank set of forecasts for world GDP growth are a grim but valuable reminder of the scale of the crisis we are facing, and the Fund’s richer members will finance a temporary suspension on payments to the IMF for 29 very poor countries.

Most importantly, a boost to the Fund’s main emergency facilities - the Rapid Credit Facility and the Rapid Financing Instrument - now makes $100bn of proper relief available to a wide range of countries. But the core problem is that the vast bulk of the Fund’s firepower is effectively inert.

This is because of the idea of 'conditionality', which underpins almost all of the IMF’s lending relationships with member states. Under normal circumstances, when the IMF is the last-resort lender to a country, it insists that the borrowing government tighten its belt and exercise restraint in public spending.

This helps to achieve three objectives. One is to stabilise the public debt burden, to ensure that the resources made available are not wasted. The second is to limit the whole economy’s need for foreign exchange, a shortage of which had prompted a country to seek IMF help in the first place. And the third is to ensure that the IMF can get repaid.

Role within the international monetary system

Since the IMF does not take any physical collateral from countries to whom it is lending, the belt-tightening helps to act as a kind of collateral for the IMF. It helps to maximise the probability that the IMF does not suffer losses on its own loan portfolio — losses that would have bad consequences for the Fund’s role within the international monetary system.

This is a perfectly respectable goal. Walter Bagehot, the legendary editor of The Economist, established modern conventional wisdom about managing panics. Relying on a medical metaphor that feels oddly relevant today, he said that a panic 'is a species of neuralgia, and according to the rules of science you must not starve it.' 

Managing a panic, therefore, requires lending to stricken borrowers 'whenever the security is good', as Bagehot put it. The IMF has had to invent its own form of collateral, and conditionality is the result. The problem, though, is that belt-tightening is a completely inappropriate approach to managing the current crisis.

Countries are stricken not because they have indulged in any irresponsible spending sprees that led to a shortage of foreign exchange, but because of a virus beyond their control. Indeed, it would seem almost grotesque for the Fund to ask countries to cut spending at a time when, if anything, more spending is needed to stop people dying or from falling into a permanent trap of unemployment.

The obvious solution to this problem would be to increase the amount of money that any country can access from the Fund’s emergency facilities well beyond the $100bn now available. But that kind of solution would quickly run up against the IMF’s collateral problem.

The more the IMF makes available as 'true' emergency financing with few or no strings attached, the more it begins to undermine the quality of its loan portfolio. And if the IMF’s senior creditor status is undermined, then an important building block of the international monetary system would be at risk.

One way out of this might have been an emergency allocation of Special Drawing Rights, a tool last used in 2009. This would credit member countries’ accounts with new, unconditional liquidity that could be exchanged for the five currencies that underpin the SDR: the dollar, the yen, the euro, sterling and the renminbi. That will not be happening, though, since the US is firmly opposed, for reasons bad and good.

So in the end the IMF and its shareholders face a huge problem. It either lends more money on easy terms without the 'collateral' of conditionality, at the expense of undermining its own balance sheet - or it remains, in systemic terms, on the sidelines of this crisis.

And since the legacy of this crisis will be some eye-watering increases in the public debt burdens of many emerging economies, the IMF’s struggle to find a way to administer its medicine will certainly outlive this round of the coronavirus outbreak.

This article is a version of a piece which was originally published in the Financial Times




new

Economic Crisis and the Delayed Arrival of a New President: Transition Trauma

1 November 2008 , Number 1

The new American president will not be inaugurated until January 20. He will certainly face the most difficult economic conditions since Franklin Roosevelt entered the White House in March 1933. The politics of presidential transition – in this year, as seventy-six years ago – seem likely only to exacerbate the global crisis.

John Dumbrell

Professor of Government, Durham University




new

Renewable Energy: Generating Money

1 November 2007 , Number 7

City types are waking up to wind, waves and the sun and their potential to make energy – and money. This is just as new energy policies for Europe emerge with twenty percent targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas cuts. Add to the mix climate change negotiations which will be back in Bali in December.

Kirsty Hamilton

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme

GettyImages-977104176.jpg

Solar panels lined up




new

Ever Closer Alliance? New Developments in Russia-China Relations

Invitation Only Research Event

11 December 2019 - 9:00am to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Yang Cheng, Professor of International Relations, Assistant Dean, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University
Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Marcin Kaczmarski, Lecturer in Security Studies, University of Glasgow
Natasha Kuhrt, Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King’s College London
Bobo Lo, Non-Resident Fellow, Lowy Institute
Alexey Maslov, Professor, School of Asian Studies, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow

At face value, recent years have seen a deepening in Sino-Russian cooperation, from energy agreements, to the recent Huawei-MTS deal developing a 5G network in Russia. Ever larger-in-scale joint military exercises add to fears by some that the 'axis of convenience' is now a more genuine – and threatening – partnership.

This workshop will offer a sober assessment of the latest developments in Sino-Russian relations, shedding light on the underpinnings and practical realities of the relationship as well as on the long-term challenges of upholding cooperation.

The panel will discuss the different and potentially diverging interpretations of contemporary Sino-Russian relations as well as the implications for the rules-based international order.

This event is co-organized by the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme and the University of Exeter and is supported by the British International Studies Association.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




new

The New Orthodox Church of Ukraine: Opportunities and Challenges of Canonical Independence

Invitation Only Research Event

22 January 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Archbishop Yevstraty (Zoria) of Chernihiv, Deputy Head of Department for External Church Relations, Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Orthodox Church of Ukraine)

In January 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople granted the Orthodox Church of Ukraine a self-governing status, ending its centuries-long subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned this decision and severed its links with the Constantinople Patriarchate.

More than 500 parishes have left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to join the newly independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

What challenges is the new church facing? Has its independence been recognized by other Orthodox churches? How is it affected by the schism between Constantinople and Moscow? What are UOC’s priorities in relations with the West and with the Orthodox world?

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




new

A nematode sterol C4{alpha}-methyltransferase catalyzes a new methylation reaction responsible for sterol diversity [Research Articles]

Primitive sterol evolution plays an important role in fossil record interpretation and offers potential therapeutic avenues for human disease resulting from nematode infections. Recognizing that C4-methyl stenol products [8(14)-lophenol] can be synthesized in bacteria while C4-methyl stanol products (dinosterol) can be synthesized in dinoflagellates and preserved as sterane biomarkers in ancient sedimentary rock is key to eukaryotic sterol evolution. In this regard, nematodes have been proposed to convert dietary cholesterol to 8(14)-lophenol by a secondary metabolism pathway that could involve sterol C4 methylation analogous to the C2 methylation of hopanoids (radicle-type mechanism) or C24 methylation of sterols (carbocation-type mechanism). Here, we characterized dichotomous cholesterol metabolic pathways in Caenorhabditis elegans that generate 3-oxo sterol intermediates in separate paths to lophanol (4-methyl stanol) and 8(14)-lophenol (4-methyl stenol). We uncovered alternate C3-sterol oxidation and 7 desaturation steps that regulate sterol flux from which branching metabolite networks arise, while lophanol/8(14)-lophenol formation is shown to be dependent on a sterol C4α-methyltransferse (4-SMT) that requires 3-oxo sterol substrates and catalyzes a newly discovered 3-keto-enol tautomerism mechanism linked to S-adenosyl-l-methionine-dependent methylation. Alignment-specific substrate-binding domains similarly conserved in 4-SMT and 24-SMT enzymes, despite minimal amino acid sequence identity, suggests divergence from a common, primordial ancestor in the evolution of methyl sterols. The combination of these results provides evolutionary leads to sterol diversity and points to cryptic C4-methyl steroidogenic pathways of targeted convergence that mediate lineage-specific adaptations.­­




new

Is CYP2C70 the key to new mouse models to understand bile acids in humans? [Commentary]




new

Problem Notes for SAS®9 - 65574: Decimal values are rounded after they are inserted into a new Databricks table via SAS/ACCESS Interface to JDBC

A DATA step and PROC SQL can round numeric values while creating and loading data into a new Databricks table via JDBC.




new

Inbox: How will potential new rule affect Rays?

Rays beat reporter Juan Toribio answers fans' questions.




new

Prominins control ciliary length throughout the animal kingdom: New lessons from human prominin-1 and zebrafish prominin-3 [Cell Biology]

Prominins (proms) are transmembrane glycoproteins conserved throughout the animal kingdom. They are associated with plasma membrane protrusions, such as primary cilia, as well as extracellular vesicles derived thereof. Primary cilia host numerous signaling pathways affected in diseases known as ciliopathies. Human PROM1 (CD133) is detected in both somatic and cancer stem cells and is also expressed in terminally differentiated epithelial and photoreceptor cells. Genetic mutations in the PROM1 gene result in retinal degeneration by impairing the proper formation of the outer segment of photoreceptors, a modified cilium. Here, we investigated the impact of proms on two distinct examples of ciliogenesis. First, we demonstrate that the overexpression of a dominant-negative mutant variant of human PROM1 (i.e. mutation Y819F/Y828F) significantly decreases ciliary length in Madin–Darby canine kidney cells. These results contrast strongly to the previously observed enhancing effect of WT PROM1 on ciliary length. Mechanistically, the mutation impeded the interaction of PROM1 with ADP-ribosylation factor–like protein 13B, a key regulator of ciliary length. Second, we observed that in vivo knockdown of prom3 in zebrafish alters the number and length of monocilia in the Kupffer's vesicle, resulting in molecular and anatomical defects in the left-right asymmetry. These distinct loss-of-function approaches in two biological systems reveal that prom proteins are critical for the integrity and function of cilia. Our data provide new insights into ciliogenesis and might be of particular interest for investigations of the etiologies of ciliopathies.




new

From the Triumvirate to the Ominous Octet: A New Paradigm for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Ralph A. DeFronzo
Apr 1, 2009; 58:773-795
Banting Lecture




new

Dr Lindsay Newman

Senior Research Fellow, US and the Americas Programme

Biography

Dr Lindsay Newman is senior research fellow in the US and Americas Programme. She was previously head of political risk (2019) and principal research analyst (2014-2018) at IHS Markit where she worked as part of the country risk and forecasting team, focusing on its global risk practice as well as North American analysis.

Prior to IHS Markit, Lindsay worked as a lawyer in the capital markets practice group of White & Case, an international law firm.

She writes and speaks on a range of US domestic and foreign policy topics including US-China trade negotiations, transatlantic relations, US agenda in the Middle East, terrorism and political violence, elections, legislative politics and immigration.

She received her BA from Yale University (Political Science and International Studies, magna cum laude), Juris Doctor from New York University School of Law and PhD from the Politics Department at New York University.

Areas of expertise

  • Elections and electoral processes
  • US domestic politics
  • US foreign policy
  • Legal institutions
  • Political risk

Past experience

2019Associate director, head of political risk, IHS Markit
2014-18Principal research analyst, IHS Markit
2010-11Assistant instructor, NYU Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Scholars
Programme
2004-07Lawyer, White & Case LLP




new

A New Decade: The Path to Sustainable and Inclusive Trade

Invitation Only Research Event

17 January 2020 - 8:15am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Arancha González, Executive Director, International Trade Centre
Chair: Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Research Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

Trade has received a lot of attention recently with the US and China still negotiating a trade agreement and the World Trade Organization coming under threat. But the global trade system is also adapting to changing geopolitical dynamics and rapid technological transformations. In light of a backlash against globalization, how can trade be made more sustainable and inclusive? What actions are needed for global trade and the trading system to adjust to changes in technology and environmental considerations? What efforts are key players such as the US, EU and China taking on these fronts?

Against this backdrop, Ms Arancha González will join us for a roundtable discussion on the future of trade and how trade can play a key role in adjusting to the changes that will take place in societies over the next decade. 

The Chatham House US and Americas Programme would like to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP and Diageo plc for their generous support of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

US and Americas Programme




new

Covid-19: UK advisory panel members are revealed after experts set up new group




new

Covid-19: South Korea relaxes social distancing after the number of new cases drops below 10 a day




new

Ever Closer Alliance? New Developments in Russia-China Relations

Invitation Only Research Event

11 December 2019 - 9:00am to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Yang Cheng, Professor of International Relations, Assistant Dean, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University
Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Marcin Kaczmarski, Lecturer in Security Studies, University of Glasgow
Natasha Kuhrt, Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King’s College London
Bobo Lo, Non-Resident Fellow, Lowy Institute
Alexey Maslov, Professor, School of Asian Studies, National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow

At face value, recent years have seen a deepening in Sino-Russian cooperation, from energy agreements, to the recent Huawei-MTS deal developing a 5G network in Russia. Ever larger-in-scale joint military exercises add to fears by some that the 'axis of convenience' is now a more genuine – and threatening – partnership.

This workshop will offer a sober assessment of the latest developments in Sino-Russian relations, shedding light on the underpinnings and practical realities of the relationship as well as on the long-term challenges of upholding cooperation.

The panel will discuss the different and potentially diverging interpretations of contemporary Sino-Russian relations as well as the implications for the rules-based international order.

This event is co-organized by the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme and the University of Exeter and is supported by the British International Studies Association.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




new

The New Orthodox Church of Ukraine: Opportunities and Challenges of Canonical Independence

Invitation Only Research Event

22 January 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Archbishop Yevstraty (Zoria) of Chernihiv, Deputy Head of Department for External Church Relations, Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Orthodox Church of Ukraine)

In January 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople granted the Orthodox Church of Ukraine a self-governing status, ending its centuries-long subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned this decision and severed its links with the Constantinople Patriarchate.

More than 500 parishes have left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to join the newly independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

What challenges is the new church facing? Has its independence been recognized by other Orthodox churches? How is it affected by the schism between Constantinople and Moscow? What are UOC’s priorities in relations with the West and with the Orthodox world?

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




new

The smell of new curtains

​ It came from the right side like God, or a deer, a Migraine warning; Chemotherapy strikes at any time. Where am I going wrong? Under community skies and red roofed buildings, immaculate And unfinished, Holding on for next week’s rent, Even if you were alive, I’d not have listened, Missing a father to say […]




new

Trudeau Election Marks New Start for Canada

22 October 2015

Cleo Paskal

Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme and Asia-Pacific Programme
Canada's partners are about to see a sea change in policy from the new Liberal government on a range of issues, especially relating to energy and the environment.

20151022Trudeau.jpg

Canadian Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau arrives to give a press conference in Ottawa on 20 October 2015. Photo by Getty Images.

The Liberal Party likes to think of itself as ‘Canada’s natural governing party’. Though they have been out of power for 10 years, and newly elected prime minister Justin Trudeau is relatively inexperienced, the party has deep and old networks across the country. The backroom is full of experienced old hands, including former prime ministers who have known Trudeau since he was a toddler. With a number of bold shifts promised in Canadian foreign policy, and a willingness to be fiscally expansive (Trudeau has said he is willing to run deficits for three years to implement their policies), the change is likely to be dramatic, fast and unrelenting.

International engagement

The Liberals’ proposed new Canada has a hint of nostalgia for a time when Canadians thought of themselves as a force for good in the world. There is likely to be a large-scale reengagement with the international community, especially the United Nations, not only on climate policy, but also peacekeeping and disaster response. Canada’s French-speaking experts make it well placed to engage in crisis-hit French-speaking countries while carrying somewhat less colonial baggage. Meanwhile, the Liberals have promised to withdraw Canadian forces from the combat mission against ISIS in Iraq, pledging instead to reorient their focus towards aid.

Science-based policies

Trudeau has the backing of a very deep bench of experienced parliamentarians, some of whom have been waiting a long time to get back in the governing game. They include Stéphane Dion, the former environment minister who gained respect for his chairing of the 2005 UN climate change conference in Montreal, and Marc Garneau, former astronaut and president of the Canadian Space Agency. This will be a government that understands and values (and has promised to restore funding for) scientific research.

This means more investment in climate resilience, renewables and other forward planning policies, but also a reexamination of some of Canada’s long-standing strengths, including Canada’s fisheries. Under the previous government, over half-a-dozen critical fisheries research libraries were shut down, in some cases with large-scale loss of data. A more science-based fisheries policy, combined with the promised funding to the Royal Canadian Navy, may result in a reinvigorated and coordinated Canadian fisheries policy. This would become particularly important in a time of global food constraints.

‘Nation-to-nation’

Trudeau’s stated goal of establishing ‘nation-to-nation’ relations with Canada’s indigenous peoples has potentially global implications.

Through treaties, Canada’s First Nations can stake a claim to about a third of Canada’s landmass, including resource rich areas. They own or control access to land that contains oil, gas, uranium, gold, diamonds and much more. China, for one, realized the potential power of First Nations as far back as 2008, when Beijing invited over two dozen indigenous leaders to China to talk business. During that trip, Peguis Chief Glenn Hudson explained that the trip was ‘an important step for us in moving forward. Our future is not only in Canada, but partnering with other countries.’

Trudeau’s ‘nation-to-nation’ statement acknowledges the strengthening role of First Nations in Canada’s resource policy. Indigenous communities have been among the most adversely affected by oil sands development and, in other parts of Canada, have successfully blocked resources extraction or transit. For example, in May, the Lax Kw'alaams Band refused to allow a proposed multi-million dollar Petronas LNG project to be developed on their land over concerns it would affect their economically and culturally important salmon runs.

Real First Nations engagement with resource management has the potential substantially change Canada’s energy, environment and resources profile. First Nations in eastern Canada have already blocked hydro development that could power much of the northeastern United States and, in a time of pipeline expansion, First Nations might become instrumental in deciding if more pipelines will run north-to-south, towards the border with the United States, or east-to-west, towards the Pacific and the markets in Asia.

Energy sector

At the same time, while Trudeau said he was against the Northern Gateway pipeline, in large part because of how it would affect the people of the Pacific coast, he backed Keystone XL. However, he is unlikely to push for it in the face of a veto by President Obama. Also, low fossil fuel prices contributed to the election in May of a left-leaning provincial government in the badly hit oil heartland of Alberta. If prices stay low, that could very well combine with Liberal campaign promises to put a coordinated national price on carbon and to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, additionally reshaping Canada’s energy landscape..

Agriculture and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

The Liberals also have a stated goal of investing in a more innovative and safe agricultural sector, while defending the interests of Canadian farmers. This dovetails with their promise to openly examine and discuss the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) before ratification. Canadian dairy farmers in particular were concerned about some of the TPP provisions but, without access to the details of the text, it was difficult to estimate how the sector would be affected.

One proposed agricultural policy that may have widespread economic implications is the legalization, regulation and taxation of marijuana. As some states in the United States have found, this has the potential to be economically beneficial and, for Canada, a possible major boon to cross-border tourism.

In a myriad of small ways, and a few big ones, the new Liberal government plans to change Canada’s international role and domestic landscape. This is one to watch.

To comment on this article, please contact Chatham House Feedback 




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