000
 WTNT81 KNHC 192045
 TCVAT1
 
 NESTOR WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY NUMBER 10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL162019
 445 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019
 
 .POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR
 
 CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
 TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
 THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
 THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
 COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
 AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
 CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
 GRIDS.
 
 FLZ027-028-034-118-127-128-134-192145-
 /O.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
 445 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019
 
 $$
 
 ATTN...WFO...TAE...
 

 
 000
 WTNT85 KNHC 072352
 TCVAT5
 
 DORIAN WATCH/WARNING INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 59A
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL052019
 752 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2019
 
 .POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN
 
 CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
 TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
 THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
 THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
 COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
 AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
 CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
 GRIDS.
 
 MEZ017-029-030-080100-
 /O.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
 752 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2019
 
 $$
 
 ATTN...WFO...CAR...
 

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 161752
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...DISTURBANCE NOW UNLIKELY TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the coast of southeastern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.6 North, longitude 96.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. On this track, the disturbance is
expected to move farther inland over southeastern Mexico during the
next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
While the chances that the disturbance will become a tropical
cyclone are decreasing, there is still a small chance that a
tropical depression could develop if the center can re-form along
the coast later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico
from Chiapas to Jalisco, and 2 to 4 inches over southern Guatemala.
Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Mexico.
Rainfall in both Guatemala and Mexico could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur along
portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Please refer to forecasts and warnings from
the Meteorological Service of Mexico for more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat.

$$
Forecaster Beven

...

Scientists at NTU Singapore have developed the prototype of a handheld medical imaging device that can produce images down to resolutions of 1 to 2 micrometres. This is detailed enough to spot the first signs of tumours in specific cells and is about 100 times higher resolution than what X-Ray, computed tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) machines can provide....

 
 000
 FKPZ22 KNHC 161752
 TCAPZ2
 
 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E
 SPECIAL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172019
 1800 UTC WED OCT 16 2019
 
 TC ADVISORY
 DTG:                      20191016/1800Z
 TCAC:                     KNHC
 TC:                       SEVENTEEN-E
 NR:                       004
 PSN:                      N1636 W09636
 MOV:                      NW 12KT
 C:                        1007HPA
 MAX WIND:                 025KT
 FCST PSN +6 HR:           16/2100Z N1657 W09706
 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR:      025KT
 FCST PSN +12 HR:          17/0300Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR:     ///KT
 FCST PSN +18 HR:          17/0900Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR:     ///KT
 FCST PSN +24 HR:          17/1500Z N//// W/////
 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR:     ///KT
 RMK:                      THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN
                           THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM
                           OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000...
                           0600...1200...AND 1800Z.
 NXT MSG:                  NO MSG EXP
 
 ..
 
 

Some shale producers said all they need is $30 oil to consider bringing back curtailed crude output.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161752
TCDEP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance has become less organized, and there is no sign of a
new center forming offshore at this time. So, while there is still
a small chance that the system could form into a tropical cyclone,
the system no longer poses a threat of bringing tropical-storm
conditions to the coast of Mexico, and this special advisory is
being issued to discontinue the tropical storm watch for the coast
of Mexico. The disturbance should continue to interact with the
mountains of southern Mexico during the next day or so, which should
most likely cause its dissipation after 12 h.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system unless the threat of tropical storm conditions
increases along the coast of Mexico. However, the heavy rainfall
threat, as well as the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
in southern Mexico, should continue for the next day or two.
Please refer to forecasts and warnings from the Meteorological
Service of Mexico for more information on this ongoing threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1800Z 16.6N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 
 000
 FOPZ12 KNHC 161752
 PWSEP2
                                                                     
 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E                              
 SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4                         
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172019               
 1800 UTC WED OCT 16 2019                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E WAS   
 LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
 SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
 WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
     OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
 THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
 PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
 

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