Seth Flaxman, Michael Chirico, Pau Pereira, Charles Loeffler.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2564--2585.

Abstract:
We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method which we developed for the National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ) Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge (National Institute of Justice (2017)). Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable randomized Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) methods for approximating Gaussian processes with autoregressive smoothing kernels in a regularized supervised learning framework. While the smoothing kernels capture the two main approaches in current use in the field of crime forecasting, kernel density estimation (KDE) and self-exciting point process (SEPP) models, the RKHS component of the model can be understood as an approximation to the popular log-Gaussian Cox Process model. For inference, we discretize the spatiotemporal point pattern and learn a log-intensity function using the Poisson likelihood and highly efficient gradient-based optimization methods. Model hyperparameters including quality of RKHS approximation, spatial and temporal kernel lengthscales, number of autoregressive lags and bandwidths for smoothing kernels as well as cell shape, size and rotation, were learned using cross validation. Resulting predictions significantly exceeded baseline KDE estimates and SEPP models for sparse events.

Nathan B. Cruze, Andreea L. Erciulescu, Balgobin Nandram, Wendy J. Barboza, Linda J. Young.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 301--316.

Abstract:
In the United States, county-level estimates of crop yield, production, and acreage published by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) play an important role in determining the value of payments allotted to farmers and ranchers enrolled in several federal programs. Given the importance of these official county-level crop estimates, NASS continually strives to improve its crops county estimates program in terms of accuracy, reliability and coverage. In 2015, NASS engaged a panel of experts convened under the auspices of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) for guidance on implementing models that may synthesize multiple sources of information into a single estimate, provide defensible measures of uncertainty, and potentially increase the number of publishable county estimates. The final report titled Improving Crop Estimates by Integrating Multiple Data Sources was released in 2017. This paper discusses several needs and requirements for NASS county-level crop estimates that were illuminated during the activities of the CNSTAT panel. A motivating example of planted acreage estimation in Illinois illustrates several challenges that NASS faces as it considers adopting any explicit model for official crops county estimates.

Speech by Mr Fernando Restoy, Chairman, Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements, at the ASBA-BID-FELABAN XVI Banking public-private sector regional policy dialogue "Challenges and opportunities in the new financial ecosystem", Washington DC, 16 October 2019.

Speech by Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the BIS, at the SUERF Annual Lecture Conference on "Populism, Economic Policies and Central Banking", SUERF/BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Conference, Milan, 8 November 2019.

The mission for an end to hunger in the world’s most populous region has received a boost, with member countries responding positively to a call by FAO for a “massive effort” to end hunger in Asia and the Pacific. 1. Asia-Pacific is home to nearly two-thirds of the world’s chronically hungry people. |True|     Asia-Pacific, with over 4.2 billion people, is home [...]

At the Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development in June 2012, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced a new global challenge for world leaders and individuals from all sectors: create a world where no one is hungry. He emphasized that there is enough food in the world to feed our population, so the challenge comes from making sure that everyone has access [...]

Have you ever thought about producing a video on food, nutrition, sustainability or hunger? Whether you’re a food buff, a student, an activist, movie geek or professional filmmaker, we have just the thing for you.Short Food Movie is a global open call for videos inspired by the theme for Expo Milano 2015, “Feeding the Planet. Energy for Life.”  It includes [...]

Water is essential for agricultural production and food security.  It is the lifeblood of ecosystems, including forests, lakes and wetlands, on which the food and nutritional security of present and future generations depends on. Yet, our freshwater resources are dwindling at an alarming rate. Growing water scarcity is now one of the leading challenges for sustainable development.  This challenge will [...]

A review of FAO’s fight against hunger and malnutrition and challenges ahead with the participation of José Graziano da Silva, Director-General of FAO. 

Where: Sheikh Zayed Centre at FAO headquarters 

When: Friday, 26th [...]

We’re really, really sorry

The event was part of the company's week of #LetsBuildTogether challenges

In a nation under quarantine, chronicling a crisis demands careful strategy

FSI Briefs No 2, April 2020. Guidance issued by financial sector authorities in response to the Covid-19 crisis seems to suggest that international efforts to come up with operational resilience standards should take into account at least the following elements: Critical/essential employees: identifying the critical functions and employees that support important business services, as well as ensuring employees' safety and that they can safely resume their duties (remotely, if necessary); IT infrastructure: ensuring that IT infrastructure can support a sharp increase in usage over an extended period and taking steps to safeguard information security; Third-party service providers: ensuring that external service providers and/or critical suppliers are taking adequate measures and are sufficiently prepared for a scenario in which there will be heavy reliance on their services; Cyber resilience: remaining vigilant in order to identify and protect vulnerable systems, and detect, respond and recover from cyber attacks..

CPMI Press release "How fintech can promote financial inclusion - a new report on the opportunities and challenges", 14 April 2020

Press release "Saudi G20 Presidency and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Hub invite global innovators to solve RegTech and SupTech challenges", 27 April 2020

The fire which destroyed the Bluefin restaurant in Souris, P.E.I. has been tough for the community’s residents, says restaurant owner Amber Jenkins.

As the NHL, NBA and MLB consider resuming play, the issue of international travel poses another hurdle for Canadian-based teams.

Most of the animals at the B.C. Wildlife Park in Kamloops are unfazed by the absence of paying visitors since it closed in March over COVID-19 concerns. But Blue the turkey appears "bummed," staff say.

McMaster University is planning for fewer international students, more deferred acceptance offers and online teaching for the thousands who are attending as the start of a new school year looms in the near future and in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Staying active and maintaining physical fitness has many benefits to all elements of wellness, including mental and emotional well-being that may be taxed during social distancing. At Penn State Mont Alto, the athletic department has been releasing weekly at-home workout and challenge videos that are accessible on our Facebook and Instagram pages to keep our student-athletes engaged.

The spiritual life of a young student is a challenge to us all not to become stale.

The Freedom Climb becomes The Freedom Challenge to include more women in a movement to raise awareness, prayer and funds to combat slavery.

OM Hong Kong has reached out to South Asian immigrants for more than a year now. One worker shares about the challenges they face.

Tampico, Mexico :: Logos Hope's international crewmembers perform their onboard theatre show entirely in Spanish for the first time.

Forty women climb Machu Picchu to raise awareness about human trafficking during a five-day Freedom Challenge trek in Peru.

OBJECTIVES:

To summarize baseline data and lessons learned from the Autism Learning Health Network, designed to improve care and outcomes for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We describe challenging behaviors, co-occurring medical conditions, quality of life (QoL), receipt of recommended health services, and next steps.

In 2019, OM Ireland hosted its largest St. Patrick's outreach.

The U.S. Supreme Court declined to take up a case that held the potential to deal a further blow to public-employee unions after last year's "Janus" decision.

As some districts try to dismantle racist and biased policies and practices, they are creating high-profile positions to lead that public, sometimes hostile, reckoning.