oke Senstroke can make you a 21st century drummer — with no drums By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 06:00:29 PDT Drummers hear all the jokes. What do you call a drummer with half a brain? Gifted. How is a drum solo like a sneeze? You know it's coming, but there's nothing you can do about it. What do you call a drummer that breaks up with his girlfriend? Homeless. Drummers hear the jokes — and laugh. Because they know they’re the thumping heartbeat of any band. They’re the ones with loads of equipment. And they’re the ones making all that noise while practicing. Yet try to play almost any song without drums and the lack of propulsion and power is instantly palpable. Drummers are essential. Now, users can join their ranks — and they don’t even need to buy a massive drum kit or rattle their walls to do it. Created by drummers, Senstroke by Redison is the first sensor device that can teach anyone to play the drums and even reproduce the drummer experience, all without any physical drum set. Just attach the patented Senstroke sensors to a pair of drumsticks and your feet, connect via Bluetooth, and instantly you can turn any surface into a virtual drumhead. Using the impact of the drumsticks and your feet positioning, the sensors reproduce the exact sounds your chosen drum element would make through the Senstroke app. Your legs, some cushions, a coffee table, they all become fair game as a drum surface while you refine your skills. And when you attach a pair of headphones, no one else even has to know you’re playing...well, Read the rest Full Article Post shop
oke Video: "Broken Meetings (and how you'll fix them)" By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 06 Oct 2010 19:40:08 +0000 A couple weeks ago, my pals at Twitter were kind enough to invite me in to visit with their (rapidly growing) team. The topic was meetings, so I used it as an opportunity to publicly premiere a talk I've been presenting to private clients over the past few months. I hope you'll enjoy, Broken Meetings (and how you'll fix them). Slides: Supplementary links and commentary forthcoming, but I wanted to go ahead and post the talk as quickly as the video was available. Special thanks to Michelle, Jeremy, and the crackerjack Twitter crew for a swell afternoon. I really like this talk and sincerely hope you will find it useful in helping to un-break your own meetings. ”Video: "Broken Meetings (and how you'll fix them)"” was written by Merlin Mann for 43Folders.com and was originally posted on October 06, 2010. Except as noted, it's ©2010 Merlin Mann and licensed for reuse under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0. "Why a footer?" Full Article Meetings Merlin Speaking Twitter Videos world of work
oke BREAKING: Founding Father of Rock Who Broke Musical Barriers, Dead at 87 By dennismichaellynch.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 16:20:36 +0000 The DML News App offers the best in news reporting. The post BREAKING: Founding Father of Rock Who Broke Musical Barriers, Dead at 87 appeared first on Dennis Michael Lynch. Full Article News Feed Powered by DMLNewsApp.com
oke Up in smoke? Global tobacco advocacy and local mobilization in Africa By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 04 Sep 2019 14:05:11 +0000 4 September 2019 , Volume 95, Number 5 Amy S. Patterson and Elizabeth Gill Read online Even though most African states have signed and ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), a global treaty to limit tobacco use, African states have been slow to pass and implement tobacco control policies like regulations on sales, smoke-free environments and taxes. This article examines how the ineffectiveness of local tobacco-control advocacy contributes to this suboptimal outcome. It asserts that the disconnect between the global tobacco-control advocacy network and local advocates shapes this ineffectiveness. With funding and direction predominately from the Bloomberg Initiative, local advocates emulate the funders' goal of achieving quick, measurable policy results. Their reliance on the network drives African advocates to strive to pass legislation, even in difficult political climates, and to remake their agendas when funders change their priorities. They also emulate the network's focus on evidence-based arguments that stress epidemiological data and biomedical interventions, even when this issue frame does not resonate with policy-makers. Financial dependence can draw local advocates into expectations about patronage politics, undermine their ability to make principled arguments, and lead them to downplay the ways that their home country's socioeconomic and cultural contexts affect tobacco use and control. Based on key informant interviews with African advocates, media analysis and the case-studies of Ghana and Tanzania, the article broadens the study of philanthropy in global health, it adds an African perspective to the literature on global health advocacy, and it deepens knowledge on power dynamics between external funders and local actors in the realms of health and development. Full Article
oke Undercurrents: Episode 5 - Chokepoints in Global Food Trade, and How the Internet is Changing Language By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 05 Apr 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
oke Episode 24: Stoker By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 13 Mar 2013 07:46:00 +0000 Review of Chan Wook Park's Stoker.What We Watched: Dredd, The Artist is Present, Side by Side, Silver Lining's Playbook, Arrested Development, All-Star Celebrity Apprentice, Bob's Burgers.You can listen to or download the podcast here. (right click to save)Next Episode: Review of Oz: The Great and Powerful.Movie Homework: Closer (Robert), Network (Jason), Suburbia (Rudy).New Cast Member, possibly. Full Article
oke CBD News: Discours par M. Ahmed Djoghlaf, Secrétaire exécutif de la Convention sur la diversité biologique, à l'occasion de la dîner-conference à l'Université de Sherbrooke sur « la Convention sur la diversi By www.cbd.int Published On :: Fri, 23 Apr 2010 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
oke Stability of the Stokes projection on weighted spaces and applications By www.ams.org Published On :: Tue, 07 Apr 2020 14:09 EDT Ricardo G. Durán, Enrique Otárola and Abner J. Salgado Math. Comp. 89 (2020), 1581-1603. Abstract, references and article information Full Article
oke Analyticity up to the boundary for the Stokes and the Navier-Stokes systems By www.ams.org Published On :: Wed, 08 Apr 2020 11:21 EDT Guher Camliyurt, Igor Kukavica and Vlad Vicol Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 373 (2020), 3375-3422. Abstract, references and article information Full Article
oke A posteriori estimates for the stationary Stokes problem in exterior domains By www.ams.org Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 11:43 EDT D. Pauly and S. Repin St. Petersburg Math. J. 31 (2020), 533-555. Abstract, references and article information Full Article
oke MacLehose Trail evokes memories By www.news.gov.hk Published On :: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0800 Stretching from Sai Kung on the east coast to Tuen Mun in the west, the whopping 100 km-long MacLehose Trail is the longest and first long-distance hiking trail in Hong Kong. The trail is divided into 10 sections and traverses eight country parks which embrace magnificent natural scenery, interesting historical relics and a wide range of wild fauna and flora, winding past the coastline, rugged mountains, valleys and reservoirs to provide a diverse outdoor experience for hikers. It was even named as one of the world's 20 dream trails by National Geographic. A lot of hard work went into building the trail, with Agriculture, Fisheries & Conservation Department workers out in the elements without much shelter, often carrying heavy equipment uphill and downhill over varied terrain. Building bondsWan Keung and Lai Hing joined the department around 40 years ago. They both took part in the MacLehose Trail project which was started in 1979 to promote hiking activities in Hong Kong. The project was named after the then-Governor Sir Murray MacLehose - who was himself a keen walker - for his significant efforts to conserve Hong Kong’s countryside. “I have contributed a lot to the trail. I am happy as it is packed with people now,” said Mr Wan. While Mr Lai added: “We are going to retire, but the trail will be here for a long time.” Despite working on the same project, the pair - now in their 60s - only met for the first time recently because they were assigned to different work stations back then. However, they became firm friends instantly. From setting up the many signposts along the way, to hand-building the heavy stone steps, the two men eagerly shared all the skills and techniques they learnt on the project. Listening to their conversations now it is hard to imagine that when they first started work, both had little practical knowledge about constructing a trail. They acquired welding, plastering and woodwork skills through hands-on experience and with the support of their seniors. But that was not the biggest challenge they encountered. “Building the trail was really difficult, as there were so many sections. We were either drowned in sweat or drenched by rain while working,” Mr Lai explained. One poignant memory for Mr Wan was of working during wildfires that raged through the countryside. “There was only one thing for it: we stayed until the fire was extinguished. That was really hard.” Lasting legacyAfter nine months’ hard work the MacLehose Trail was finally opened on October 26, 1979. These days Mr Wan and Mr Lai enjoy the trail for leisure instead of work. Both said receiving compliments from family and friends or witnessing the sheer enjoyment of hikers on the trail made their hard work worthwhile. They now hope to pass on their skills to the younger workers, so that a new generation of Hong Kong people can take care of the trail and ensure it lasts for decades to come. Full Article
oke Screening Room: Broken Dinners, Postponed Kisses By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 13 Feb 2020 09:55:01 +0000 Members Event Screening Room 10 March 2020 - 6:00pm to 8:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Nigol Bezjian, Director, Broken Dinners, Postponed KissesChair: Rima Maktabi, Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya (UK) The Syrian conflict has not only resulted in material losses but also in loss of familiar everyday life for Syrian people. Through their work, many Syrian artists have been trying to come to terms with the conflict and its impact on their memories, sense of self and the place they call home. Against this backdrop, Broken Dinners, Postponed Kisses provides an insight into the lived experience of artists affected by violence and upheaval in Syria. The film follows the lives of six Syrian artists as they narrate their journeys of loss, displacement and adaptation. Each story builds on the last providing an exploration of the expressive power of art in conflict. The screening will be followed by a Q&A discussion with Aleppo-born Syrian Armenian filmmaker, Nigol Bezjian. Led by al-Arabiya’s London Bureau Chief, Rima Maktabi, the discussion will place some of the themes raised by the film into a wider conversation surrounding the intersection of art and politics and the impact of war on the memories, lives and viewpoints of individuals.COVID-19This event is proceeding as scheduled, as are other Chatham House events, in accordance with the advice from the UK Government, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Public Health England. However, we are closely monitoring the spread of COVID-19 and will send updates to attendees as the situation warrants. In the meantime, in line with the official advice for returning travellers or visitors to the UK from specified countries and areas (see guidance here), we ask that:If you have travelled from Category 1 countries/areas, you refrain from attending the event even if asymptomatic (i.e. even if you are showing no symptoms);If you have travelled from Category 2 countries/areas, you refrain from attending the event should you develop symptoms.If you fall under one of these affected categories and have any questions, please call +44 (0)207 314 3638 or email lbedford@chathamhouse.org.This event will be preceded by a drinks reception, taking place from 17:00.This event is open to all Chatham House members as well as attendees of the 'The Struggle for the State in Syria' conference taking place the next day. Members Events Team Email Full Article
oke Episode 22 - The Internet of Ultra Balls (IoUB) Pokemon Go, Playstation VR and iOS 10 By play.acast.com Published On :: Fri, 08 Jul 2016 11:24:25 GMT In Matt Egan's absence first time host Henry Burrell heroically steps in to chat about Pokemon Go with producer Chris. Then fellow staff writer Chris Minasians discusses iOS 10 beta and all of the rumoured features for the latest Apple operating system, including dark mode (10:30). Finally, Lewis Painter, staff writer at PC Advisor, talks about Playstation VR being released for the PS4, pricing and games (23:30). See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Full Article
oke Episode 23 - The Internet of Top Tech Topics (IoTTT) Brexit, Pokemon Go & Tesla By play.acast.com Published On :: Fri, 15 Jul 2016 13:19:19 GMT For the second week running hosting duties are taken by Henry Burrell, who is joined by Techworld.com editor Charlotte Jee to discuss the impact of Brexit on the UK's startups. Producer Chris then jumps in to discuss the Pokemon Go launch in the UK and a debate breaks out over whether it is for adults (13:00) Finally, online editor at Computerworld UK Scott Carey brings the latest news around driverless cars, from Tesla's recent struggles and how it may affect the industry in general (25:00) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. Full Article
oke Management of acute ischemic stroke By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Thursday, February 13, 2020 - 15:06 Full Article
oke Endorepellin evokes an angiostatic stress signaling cascade in endothelial cells [Glycobiology and Extracellular Matrices] By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: 2020-05-08T03:41:14-07:00 Endorepellin, the C-terminal fragment of the heparan sulfate proteoglycan perlecan, influences various signaling pathways in endothelial cells by binding to VEGFR2. In this study, we discovered that soluble endorepellin activates the canonical stress signaling pathway consisting of PERK, eIF2α, ATF4, and GADD45α. Specifically, endorepellin evoked transient activation of VEGFR2, which, in turn, phosphorylated PERK at Thr980. Subsequently, PERK phosphorylated eIF2α at Ser51, upregulating its downstream effector proteins ATF4 and GADD45α. RNAi-mediated knockdown of PERK or eIF2α abrogated the endorepellin-mediated up-regulation of GADD45α, the ultimate effector protein of this stress signaling cascade. To functionally validate these findings, we utilized an ex vivo model of angiogenesis. Exposure of the aortic rings embedded in 3D fibrillar collagen to recombinant endorepellin for 2–4 h activated PERK and induced GADD45α vis à vis vehicle-treated counterparts. Similar effects were obtained with the established cellular stress inducer tunicamycin. Notably, chronic exposure of aortic rings to endorepellin for 7–9 days markedly suppressed vessel sprouting, an angiostatic effect that was rescued by blocking PERK kinase activity. Our findings unravel a mechanism by which an extracellular matrix protein evokes stress signaling in endothelial cells, which leads to angiostasis. Full Article
oke Nicotine and Insulin Resistance: When the Smoke Clears By diabetes.diabetesjournals.org Published On :: 2012-12-01 Mandeep BajajDec 1, 2012; 61:3078-3080Commentary Full Article
oke NICE recommends implantable monitor to identify atrial fibrillation after stroke By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Tuesday, January 14, 2020 - 00:30 Full Article
oke Stroke: “striking reductions” are seen in number of people with symptoms seeking help By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Monday, April 6, 2020 - 11:10 Full Article
oke Said the Joker to the Thief By kolembo.wordpress.com Published On :: Thu, 21 Sep 2017 18:51:14 +0000 Don’t make fun of the flower arranger, Ikebana Is self – discipline, a Nip here, a Snip there, and With fullness of time, and Passage through life, Done with the flash of a scissor, Bone handles, Glinting, Scissor flash snip, all gone Extra weight, things un-needed, flash Unheeded, If you stop, To think about, […] Full Article Poetry aging fear poem poetry self - discipline
oke Diel gets booked to serenade mothers - Artiste puts together personalised ‘Majesty’ packages By jamaica-gleaner.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 00:06:10 -0500 It’s not news that the current fight against COVID-19 has overshadowed plans of artistes worldwide, having impacted some of their biggest stages and platforms with the cancellation of not only large-scale events but private ones as well. Birthday... Full Article
oke Thrombolysis in acute ischaemic stroke - time for a rethink? By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Wed, 18 Mar 2015 16:39:30 +0000 In the US the licence, or marketing authorisation, for alteplase is limited to 0-3 hours after onset of stroke, but some other countries - including the UK and Australia - have extended the licence to 4.5 hours. In an analysis article on thebmj.com Brian Alper, vice president of evidence based medicine research and development at Dynamed, and... Full Article
oke How does lifestyle affect genetic risk of stroke? By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Tue, 30 Oct 2018 13:35:23 +0000 Cardiovascular factors are associated with risk of stroke - and those factors can be mediated by lifestyle and by genetic make up. New research published by The BMJ sets out to explore how these risks combine, and we're joined on the podcast by two of the authors - Loes Rutten-Jacobs, senior postdoctoral researcher at the German Center for... Full Article
oke What caused the drop in stroke mortality in the UK By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Thu, 23 May 2019 10:12:07 +0000 Stroke mortality rates have been declining in almost every country, and that reduction could result from a decline in disease occurrence or a decline in case fatality, or both. Broadly - is that decline down to better treatment or better prevention. Olena Seminog, a researcher, and and Mike Rayner, professor of population health, both from the... Full Article
oke Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 15 Jun 2017 09:51:25 +0000 27 June 2017 Policymakers must take action immediately to mitigate the risk of severe disruption at certain ports, maritime straits, and inland transport routes, which could have devastating knock-on effects for global food security. Read online Download PDF Rob Bailey Former Research Director, Energy, Environment and Resources @ClimateRob Laura Wellesley Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme @laurawellesley 2017-06-27-chokepoints.jpg Pedro Miguel locks, Panama Canal. Photo: Gonzalo Azumendi/Getty Images. Trade chokepoints – maritime, coastal and inland – pose an underexplored and growing risk to global food security.Maritime chokepoints will become increasingly integral to meeting global food supply as population growth, shifting dietary preferences, bioenergy expansion and slowing improvements in crop yields drive up demand for imported grain.Rising trade volumes, increasing dependence on imports among food-deficit countries, underinvestment, weak governance, climate change and emerging disruptive hazards together make chokepoint disruptions – both small-scale and large-scale – increasingly likely.Climate change will have a compounding effect on chokepoint risk, increasing the probability of both isolated and multiple concurrent weather-induced disturbances.Investment in infrastructure lags demand growth: critical networks in major crop-producing regions are weak and ageing, and extra capacity is urgently needed. RecommendationsIntegrate chokepoint analysis into mainstream risk management and security planning - for example, government agencies should assess exposure and vulnerability to chokepoint risk at the national and subnational levels.Invest in infrastructure to ensure future food security – for example by agreeing on guidelines for climate-compatible infrastructure through an international taskforce established under the G20.Enhance confidence and predictability in global trade - for example, through a process under the World Trade Organization (WTO) to continually reduce the scope for export restrictionsDevelop emergency supply-sharing arrangements and smarter strategic storage, e.g. an emerging response mechanism among major players in the global food trade, modelled in part on that of the International Energy Agency in oil markets and led by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN World Food Programme (WFP) or the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS).Build the evidence base around chokepoint risk - including through the collection of data on real-time food trade and infrastructural capacity to aid in assessing risks to food supply chains.Further ReadingRead more about chokepoints in global food trade at resourcetrade.earthTake a closer look at chokepoints and food security threats in an interview with a report author and experts in related fieldsDiscover the 5 things you need to know about chokepointsExplore what the Qatar crisis tells us about food supply risk (in The New Arab) Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade Full Article
oke RCP warns over shortage of stroke physicians By feeds.bmj.com Published On :: Tuesday, November 29, 2016 - 06:30 Full Article
oke Often Overlooked Learning Disorder May Affect Millions of Kids By feeds.socialpsychology.org Published On :: 2020-05-04T04:27:46-04:00 Source: Psych CentralNew research suggests nonverbal learning disability, a poorly understood and often-overlooked disorder that causes problems with visual-spatial processing, may affect nearly 3 million children in the United States alone. Full Article
oke Raiders agree to deal with free agent RB Devontae Booker By www.upi.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 09:55:57 -0400 The Las Vegas Raiders have agreed to a deal with free agent running back Devontae Booker. Full Article
oke Abstract deadline for smokeless tobacco summit at end of February By www.ada.org Published On :: Wed, 19 Feb 2020 09:31:00 -0600 The deadline for abstracts for the upcoming National Summit on Smokeless Tobacco Prevention is Feb. 29. Full Article
oke Televangelist Jim Bakker recovering from stroke By www.upi.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 19:56:46 -0400 Televangelist Jim Bakker is recovering at his North Carolina home after having a stroke, his wife said Friday. Full Article
oke YoungBoy Never Broke Again's '38 Baby 2' tops U.S. album chart By www.upi.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 09:51:28 -0400 Rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again's "38 Baby 2" is No. 1 on the U.S. album chart. Full Article
oke Lost in the Smoke-Filled Room: Unexpected Talent By www.washingtonpost.com Published On :: Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:00:00 EDT If this were Britain, Russia or India, Rudy Giuliani '08 caps would not be on the clearance racks. In those countries, where bigwigs and insiders get to nominate party leaders, the former Republican front-runner and establishment favorite would have long ago been anointed the winner. Full Article Opinions Lost in the Smoke-Filled Room: Unexpected Talent
oke Stir-fried twice cooked porkbelly with leek and Sichuan black beans By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 19:35:00 +1100 This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Neil Perry. Neil's new book is "Spice Temple." Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
oke Handmade egg noodles Hunan-style with smoked bacon and chilli By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 19:47:00 +1100 This recipe was featured on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment with Raf Epstein on Drive, 774 ABC Melbourne, 3:30 PM, courtesy of Neil Perry. Neil's new book is "Spice Temple." Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
oke SLOW-COOKED QUINCES WITH MANDARIN AND ROSEWATER By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Thu, 17 Mar 2016 10:41:00 +1000 Once you've peeled and cored the quinces there's really little work to do to make this gorgeous dessert. They just bubble away happily for a few hours while the sugar and long slow cooking cast their spell, transforming the quinces' hard, ivory-coloured flesh until it's meltingly soft and an incredible deep-rose colour. Full Article ABC Local northcoast Lifestyle and Leisure:Food and Cooking:All Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:Main Australia:NSW:Lismore 2480
oke Slow-cooked pork shoulder with apples and crackling By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 29 Mar 2016 12:49:00 +1100 This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, courtesy of Justine Schofield. Justine's latest book is "Dinner With Justine". Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
oke Eucalyptus smoked Marburg emu fillet, beets, macadamia plus Lilly Pilly and finger lime spritzer By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Mon, 19 Sep 2016 10:34:00 +1000 Delicious Australian dish with fresh Lilly Pilly and finger lime spritzer. Full Article ABC Local brisbane Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:QLD:Brisbane 4000
oke Jerusalem artichokes cooked overnight with hazelnut praline By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 20 Sep 2016 12:13:00 +1000 This recipe features on Foodie Tuesday, a weekly segment on 774 Drive with Raf Epstein, 3.30PM, shared by Dan Hunter, chef and owner of Otways' restaurant Brae. Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
oke Hot smoked ocean trout with salad By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Tue, 25 Oct 2016 14:58:00 +1100 200 gm flaked salt 200 gm brown sugar 1 side ocean trout, skin on, pinboned 1/2 cup smoking shavings/sawdust Salad 1 butter lettuce 1 baby endive lettuce 2 Lebanese cucumbers 200 ml creme fraiche 100 ml vinaigrette (25 ml sherry vinegar, 25 ml olive oil, 50 ml grape seed oil) Salt and pepper 2 Granny Smith apples 1 stick celery Bunch chives Full Article ABC Local melbourne Lifestyle and Leisure:Food and Cooking:All Lifestyle and Leisure:Recipes:All Australia:VIC:Melbourne 3000
oke Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability By decisions-and-info-gaps.blogspot.com Published On :: Sun, 09 Oct 2011 11:51:00 +0000 Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their DilemmasDecision problems.Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?Solution strategies.The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement."Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm PetersenNow let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative."Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.Robustness and ProbabilityNow we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.Wrapping UpThe skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. Full Article betting innovation dilemma probability proxy property robustness
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