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Rauchen tötet - doch auch nichtrauchen kann ganz schön gefährlich sein, wie dieser Film zeigt. Leider nicht mehr ganz aktuell ... ;)

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I may have bored everyone to death about this topic, but I have my last exam tomorrow, so here is my final thought about what distinguishes science. Most of the descriptions of science that I know of don’t really explain how science progresses without falling into a quaint mythology about approaching some metaphysical truth. Kuhn doesn’t, Popper doesn’t, Pierre Duhem doesn’t, and I myself have neglected to account for it to some extent.

I think the key is that science, at least experimental science, is essentially concerned with predicting the future. Every hypothesis, in essence, is a prediction about the future. What distinguishes science from other forms of prediction is the emphasis on verification, the insistence on framing predictions in such a way that when they are tested they can be decisively answered positively or negatively. In other, the goal is not to not be wrong but to achieve a definitive positive answer. Even a definite negative answer is preferable to none at all.

Some philosophers, like Duhem, claim that individual hypotheses can neither be verified nor falsified, because a whole body of theories and assumptions lies behind, and is implicated in, every hypothesis, and thus one can never be sure just what has been validated or failed. While that’s true, it is also nonetheless true that when the result of an experiment does not match a hypothetical prediction the hypothesis has been proven invalid as it stands. In other words, no matter what went wrong, the body of theories and assumptions that led to the hypothesis do not work as they now stand. Thus, things will have to be changed until they produce accurate predictions. Conversely, if a hypotheis is corroborated with a positive answer, the theories behind it stand validated until a hypothesis receives a negative answer.

In other words, experimentation does not serve to lead by induction to new theories, but rather theories serve to make possible specific predictions about the future which can be verified decisively. This at least is the goal. The goal is not a description which is true or corresponds to the truth, or at least that is not the immediate goal. When the facts or events are given, anyone can interpret them, and the fact that these events are known can mask the relative merits of the theory which interprets them. The idea that theories are validated by their correspondence to experimental results is tautological: the first condition of any theory is that it accounts for the experimental results that gave rise to it. But the only way to determine whether it is simply a theory to fit the facts or whether it is truly generalizable is to test it against unknown facts via prediction. Of course, predictions are almost always only approximately true, so the specific point of acceptability is not provided for by the general concept, but, at least in theory, decisive verification of predictions provides a simple, clear, and immensely useful criterion by which to evaluate theories. In my opinion, this explains much of the evolutionary capacity of science (I mean evolution in the more contemporary sense of diversification and selection rather than the old idea of teleological perfectibility).

If experimental prediction is the mark of science, this leaves the question of whether purely descriptive disciplines like zoology and areas like quantum theory where predictions are inherently statistical and ambiguous are scientific. Zoology and the like I think are, because hypothetical prediction inherently implies classification. In other words, by saying “under these conditions, such an event will happen,” one classifies, in other words sets parameters. The goal of zoology seems to be not simply to describe members of a group but to describe all the characteristics which define the group, set the parameters of the group, which is the first step towards making predictions about the group. So it is an element of science, but incomplete. As for quantum, I avow my profound ignorance of it, so let my opinion be taken in that light. As far as I understand, the stastical laws in that realm allow predictions in aggregate, so I am inclined to view it as still within the domain of science, at least in spirit, but of course the lack of decisiveness of statistical predictions gravely weakens the predictive power of science in this area, and I have already suggested that the rise of relativity and quantum in my view are intimately tied to the waning of the scientific age. Finally, it should be noted that while making correct predictions is the goal of science, that should be qualified by saying that the predictions are intended to answer general questions concerning the nature of things and establish specific knowledge. Optics or engineering, for example, are not science, although they once were, because all the major questions have been answered, and they no longer concern gaining further knowledge of the future and the universe, but rather in applying that knowledge to constructing specific objects.

So the goal and value of science is in predicting, and thus establishing knowledge of, the future, and the scientific method is the means of arriving at correct predictions. This is not to discard my earlier contention about the ideological basis of science, because the efficacy of prediction is based on the relative value of induction, and successful induction relies on the essential regularity and stability of the universe. In other words, in order to draw a general theory from a specific experimental result and vice versa, the universe must be considered as basically the same everywhere and at every time, which in turn implies that it be material, matter being defined as that which cannot change itself and is therefore static. It seems to me that if in quantum theory, for example, phenomena become genuinely dependent on the observeer in ways that are neither generalizable nor predicatable, it cannot continue to remain truly a science. It would seem to me that the branches of physics which are entirely theoretical are for practical purposes basically metaphysics.

This model depends on a linear notion of time. It might seem the opposite, that if the physical laws are eternal and universal time is actually opposed to this insofar as it represents dynamism, change. But in reality the sameness of the universe upon which science is predicated is not a a sameness at any particular moment, but rather a sameness of behavior. In other words, a view of the universe from a materialist perspective at any given moment shows that everything in the univese is different in the sense of being distinct. However, the idea is that under the same conditions all matter (or whatever you call the fundamental substances) will act in the same way. Without the steady march of time, this unity of behavior disappears, and there are simply a million disparate entities. Thus, space (and time) as properties of the universe are essential to science.

As for what the value of science is, I’m afraid I can’t generalize about that. From reading my recent posts one can most likely guess at my views, but I will simply say that one’s view of the efficacy of science in making the universe understandable will probably depend on entirely on whether one a) believes that linear time is a real property of the universe and b) if so, whether true induction is possible.

p.s. I should note that Henri Poincaré anticipates me in seeing the epistemological value of science as consisting mainly of its ability to make predictions rather than its descriptive correspondence to reality. However, he also thinks that theories are conventions and definitions of concepts, not true descriptions of physical phenomena based necessarily on experimental results. He thinks the conjunction of these two make theories relatively independent of their experimental bases, which he regards as a good thing because it creates a body of stable principles in which we can trust. I think that that is neither true nor a good value. The emphasis is on predicting correctly, not creating stable beliefs (if you want unchanging beliefs, what not join the Church?), and if generating true predictions is the goal, theories should be more rather than less sensitive to their experimental roots.

p.p.s. Since my exam was about scientific laws and causality, I should add that while scientific activity depends on a belief in time, not all scientific theories do: the law of conservation of energy, for example, I believe is essentially atemporal.

Highly Recommended

It's been fits and starts but it now appears that CBS/Paramount is fully committed to releasing the final seasons of the 20-season Gunsmoke. Through the grapevine this critic is hearing that the label is planning on combining later seasons into single, rather than two-volume sets, which might be a little easier on everyone's pocketbook.

I've been reviewing Gunsmoke sets since the First Season was released in July 2007. The program was so prolific, upwards of 40 episodes per season in its early days, it's been impossible to watch everything in broadcast order. As new sets have been released, I typically watch 7-8 representative episodes then return to where I left off which, at present, is still Gunsmoke during its prime, black-and-white years. Reviewing the later, color (and hour-long episodes) I initially expressed mild disappointment that they weren't as taut as the 30-...Read the entire review

Highly Recommended

It's been fits and starts but it now appears that CBS/Paramount is fully committed to releasing the final seasons of the 20-season Gunsmoke. Through the grapevine this critic is hearing that the label is planning on combining later seasons into single, rather than two-volume sets, which might be a little easier on everyone's pocketbook.

I've been reviewing Gunsmoke sets since the First Season was released in July 2007. The program was so prolific, upwards of 40 episodes per season in its early days, it's been impossible to watch everything in broadcast order. As new sets have been released, I typically watch 7-8 representative episodes then return to where I left off which, at present, is still Gunsmoke during its prime, black-and-white years. Reviewing the later, color (and hour-long episodes) I initially expressed mild disappointment that they weren't as taut as the 30-...Read the entire review

Highly Recommended

(Note: Reviews of Gunsmoke: The Sixteenth Season and Gunsmoke: The Seventeenth Season are identical. In preparing them I watched at episodes and the extras from both sets. Give me a break.)

Despite the steady decline of the DVD format, CBS/Paramount deserves a lot of credit for seeing the 20-season run of Gunsmoke (1955-1975) through all the way to the finish line. For the show's last five seasons, it appears that the label has decided to release full- rather than half-season sets, a wise decision, and they've even added a most welcome supplement.

I've been reviewing Gunsmoke sets since the First Season was released in July 2007. The program was so prolific, upwards of 40 episodes per season in its early days, it's been impossible to watch everything in broadcast order. As new sets have been released, I typically watch 7-8 representative episodes then ...Read the entire review

Highly Recommended

(Note: Reviews of Gunsmoke: The Sixteenth Season and Gunsmoke: The Seventeenth Season are identical. In preparing them I watched at episodes and the extras from both sets. Give me a break.)

Despite the steady decline of the DVD format, CBS/Paramount deserves a lot of credit for seeing the 20-season run of Gunsmoke (1955-1975) through all the way to the finish line. For the show's last five seasons, it appears that the label has decided to release full- rather than half-season sets, a wise decision, and they've even added a most welcome supplement.

I've been reviewing Gunsmoke sets since the First Season was released in July 2007. The program was so prolific, upwards of 40 episodes per season in its early days, it's been impossible to watch everything in broadcast order. As new sets have been released, I typically watch 7-8 representative episodes then ...Read the entire review

Highly Recommended

(Note: Reviews of Gunsmoke: The Eighteenth Season and Gunsmoke: The Nineteenth Season are identical. In preparing them I watched at episodes and the extras from both sets.)

Nearing home plate, CBS/Paramount's Eighteenth and Nineteenth of 20 season sets of Gunsmoke (1955-1975) nearly finishes off the classic series. Many wondered if the label would complete the series before the DVD format went kaput, so their determination to see it through deserves our gratitude.

I've been reviewing Gunsmoke sets since the First Season was released in July 2007. The program was so prolific, upwards of 40 episodes per season in its early days, it's been impossible to watch everything in broadcast order. As new sets have been released, I typically watch 7-8 representative episodes then return to where I left off which, at present, is still Gunsmoke during its b...Read the entire review

Highly Recommended

(Note: Reviews of Gunsmoke: The Eighteenth Season and Gunsmoke: The Nineteenth Season are identical. In preparing them I watched at episodes and the extras from both sets.)

Nearing home plate, CBS/Paramount's Eighteenth and Nineteenth of 20 season sets of Gunsmoke (1955-1975) nearly finishes off the classic series. Many wondered if the label would complete the series before the DVD format went kaput, so their determination to see it through deserves our gratitude.

I've been reviewing Gunsmoke sets since the First Season was released in July 2007. The program was so prolific, upwards of 40 episodes per season in its early days, it's been impossible to watch everything in broadcast order. As new sets have been released, I typically watch 7-8 representative episodes then return to where I left off which, at present, is still Gunsmoke during its b...Read the entire review

Highly Recommended

And so with this CBS/Paramount DVD release, Gunsmoke ends its unprecedented 20-year run, wrapping up an incredible 635 episodes. While a couple of series have since beaten Gunsmoke, namely Law & Order, The Simpsons, and Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, with more seasons and/or episodes, that doesn't take into account Gunsmoke's far greater per-season output in its early years, or the much longer running times of both the half-hour and later hour-long episodes. Nor does it factor in star James Arness's appearance in every episode (and later TV movies), or the long runs of so many regulars, including supporting and bit players.

Regardless, the label's commitment to finish out Gunsmoke on DVD deserves our gratitude, especially their wise decision to remaster the entire series, and to even add some fine extra features in its last seasons.

I'...Read the entire review

Hi Blokesters. It's official now and InstaBloke has moved over to Blog Bloke dot com, so please make a note of it and update your bookmarks as well as the newsfeed. You should also check out my latest post explaining all of the gory details. It's a doozy.

See you there!

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1. Booker Prize Is Awarded to Samantha Harvey’s ‘Orbital’  The New York Times
2. Samantha Harvey wins the Booker prize for “Orbital”  The Economist
3. ‘This is a book we need now’: Sara Collins on choosing this year’s Booker winner  The Guardian
4. Orbital by Samantha Harvey: the Booker prize-winner set to go 'stratospheric'  The Week
5. The inconvenient truth about this year’s Booker Prize winner  The Independent

Two Irish County Councils and several other Irish, Northern Ireland, and UK government agencies are publishing press releases using the new Nooked hosted online RSS publishing service.

Frederica was interviewed in a busy fellowship hall by a teen from her parish about how she became a writer and spokesman for the Pro-Life cause.

Just before the Apostle reading in the Divine Liturgy, verses are chanted known as the Prokeimenon. Fr. Tom explains what that is, why it is there, and how he feels it should be done.

Fr. John shares about the easy yoke of Christ, from Matthew 11:28-30.

It feels awful when we break an object we love and it is beyond repair. Yet Christ loves us and tells us we as persons must be broken for Him to “repair” us. He tells us we have no choice and that the alternative to not being broken is to be crushed. What does He mean? Join Michael as he explains Christ’s teaching and what brokenness looks and feels like.

Together, we are connected by the forgiveness we all need.

The guys discuss the newest film from DC Movies, The Joker. They discuss the impact of mental illness, having compassion for enemies, and how any of us can take the road to darkness. They close with their Top 5 Movies About Mental Health.

People think of religion in many different ways today, but usually not in a way that requires our hearts to be broken.