Simas Kucinskas writes: I would like to share some recent research (pdf here). In this paper, I develop a new method for estimating R in real time, and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on standard epidemiological theory, but the approach itself is heavily inspired by time-series statistics. I […]

I originally gave this post the title, “Stigler: The Changing History of Robustness,” but then I was afraid nobody would read it. In the current environment of Move Fast and Break Things, not so many people care about robustness. Also, the widespread use of robustness checks to paper over brittle conclusions has given robustness a […]

Bruising convention battle calls into question party unity behind the Peterson challenger.

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https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/nps-to-offer-pilot-shuttle-bus-service-from-grca-to-tusayan-again-this-year.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will hold a meeting on Tuesday, July 28 to update an advisory panel on the agencies’ efforts to restore natural quiet in Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/national-park-service-and-federal-aviation-administration-to-hold-meeting-on-grand-canyon-overflights.htm

Afternoon thunderstorms brought abundant lightning to Grand Canyon National Park this week; and fire managers have identified six new fires, all on the North Rim of the park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-07-31_fires.htm

A free event to celebrate National Parks in Arizona and other public lands will take place on the University of Arizona campus in Centennial Hall and on the nearby grounds on Saturday, August 29, 2009. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/free-outdoor-family-expo-to-highlight-national-parks-in-arizona.htm

Grand Canyon National Park will celebrate Earth Science Week by offering a variety of special programs and activities during the week of October 11 – 17, 2009. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-to-celebrate-earth-science-week-october-11-through-17.htm

   https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news_2009-11-10_ba_death.htm

A thunderstorm passed over Northern Arizona late last week resulting in three lightning caused fires on the North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/14jun10_news3.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/4oct10-news.htm

The National Park Service (NPS) will soon complete the installation of nine new water bottle filling stations in Grand Canyon National Park, making access to free Grand Canyon spring water easier than ever before. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2011-03-16_h2o.htm

Shuttle bus service between Grand Canyon National Park and neighboring town of Tusayan to resume for season https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/shuttle-bus-service-between-grand-canyon-national-park-and-neighboring-town-of-tusayan-to-resume-for-season.htm

On Tuesday, June 7, Grand Canyon firefighters responded to two separate human-caused fires in Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2011-06-08_fire.htm

In April 2011, five students from Bigfork High School Cave Club (Bigfork, MT) and their sponsor spent a week with Grand Canyon National Park Hydrologist and Cave Resources Manager, Steve Rice, conducting cave resource inventories, impact analysis, and repeat photography of several backcountry cave sites. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/bigfork-high-school-cave-club-completes-inventory-and-impact-mapping-of-caves-in-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

The National Park Service invites the public to the 18th annual Native American Heritage Days on the North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2011-07-27_heritage-days.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2011-08-04_lightning.htm

The National Park Service is now accepting applications for noncommercial river trip permits to raft the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2012-02-01_lottery.htm

Man Collapses and Dies on Bright Angel Trail in Grand Canyon National Park https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/man-collapses-and-dies-on-bright-angel-trail-in-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

The man who collapsed and died on the Bright Angel Trail in Grand Canyon yesterday has been identified as 72 year-old David Roberts of Cleveland, Tennessee. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/man-who-collapsed-and-died-on-bright-angel-trail-in-grand-canyon-national-park-is-identified.htm

Recently, Grand Canyon National Park unveiled its new, high tech, Virtual Studio for Kids. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2013-02-12-virtual-studio.htm

Grand Canyon National Park and the Grand Canyon Association will dedicate the renovated trailhead for Bright Angel Trail, one of the oldest and best known trails in the National Park system. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/bright-angel-trailhead-dedication-and-ribbon-cutting-ceremony-saturday-may-18.htm

On Saturday, May 18th, 2013, over 500 people gathered to celebrate the trailhead renovation of one of Grand Canyon National Park’s oldest and most visited trails. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-dedicates-the-newly-renovated-bright-angel-trailhead.htm

Grand Canyon National Park and the entire National Park Service join the nation in mourning the tragic loss of 19 firefighters, including 18 elite firefighters from the Granite Mountain Hotshot Crew based in Prescott, AZ. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-expresses-deepest-condolences-on-19-firefighter-deaths.htm

At approximately 1:00 p.m. on Monday, July 15 a lightning strike near Mather Point resulted in several visitors reporting injuries to the Grand Canyon Visitors Center. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/lightning-causes-minor-injuries-at-grand-canyon-national-park.htm

Horace P. Albright Training Center was officially listed to the National Register of Historic Places on September 30, 2013. The only National Park Service (NPS) training center in the West and located within the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, the Center is a state significant Historic District exemplifying simple, practical, modernist design of the Mission 66 Era. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/albright-training-center.htm

Due to favorable weather conditions today, including lower temperatures, higher relative humidity and lighter winds the Galahad Fire showed little growth and is now estimated at 743 acres. The fire remains west of the W-4 Road and south of the historic Kanabownits Cabin. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/weather-helps-firefighters-meet-management-objectives.htm

Once again, favorable weather conditions today allowed firefighters to make good progress in building and improving containment lines along the W-4 Road to the north and south of the historic Kanabownits Cabin. These containment lines have been constructed to protect the cabin and hold the fire west of the W-4 Road on the Walla Valley Peninsula. The fire is now estimated at 1,100 acres. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/firefighters-continue-to-make-progress-on-galahad-fire.htm

Today’s weather brought higher temperatures, lower relative humidity and gustier winds, which tested containment lines. Late afternoon winds caused four spot fires east of the W-4 Road containment line. A plan was in place in anticipation of the predicted weather and potential spot fires. Firefighters, aided by engines, responded and are working to contain the spot fires across the W-4 Road and south of the Kanbowbitz Cabin. These challenging weather conditions are expected to continue over the next few days. The fire is now estimated to be 1,550 acres. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/weather-conditions-challenge-firefighters-on-galahad-fire.htm

Firefighters were successful today in holding the Galahad Fire to the west of the W-4 Road, even though they were faced with higher temperatures, lower relative humidity and gusty winds. Yesterday, these same conditions caused three spot fires across the W-4 road to the east, but firefighters were able to quickly contain them. The fire is estimated at 1,975 acres https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/firefighters-hold-the-line-on-the-galahad-fire.htm

Red Flag conditions consisting of high temperatures, low relative humidity and gusty winds challenged firefighters again today, but they were able to hold the Galahad Fire west of the W-4 Road. These same weather conditions are forecasted for the rest of the week. The fire is estimated at 2,172 acres. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/firefighters-overcome-challenge-of-red-flag-conditions.htm

Firefighters made good progress today in strengthening and holding the established containment lines on the Galahad Fire. Once again hot, dry and windy weather challenged firefighters but they were able to keep the fire to the west of the W-4 Road, which is the major focus of fire managers. These same weather conditions are forecasted for the rest of the week. The fire is estimated at 2,702 acres and 5% contained. This containment is based on the portion of the fire in which firefighters are continuing to control. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/firefighters-make-good-progress-on-galahad-fire.htm

At approximately 11:30 am the Grand Canyon Regional Communications Center received a call reporting CPR in progress just above Three-Mile Rest House on the Bright Angel Trail. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/hiker-fatality.htm

Wildland firefighters respond to fire at Pinon Park located within the South Rim Village. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/south-rim-village-fire.htm

On Thursday afternoon, hikers reported to a park ranger that a member of their party needed help. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/bright-angel-fatality.htm

A man who died while hiking the Bright Angel Trail has been identified. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/bright-angel-trail-fatality-identified.htm

Grand Canyon National Park invites all fourth graders and their families to visit the park for free. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/every-kid-in-a-park.htm

Hikers near Phantom Ranch reported a fatality in Bright Angel Campground on Sunday, December 6. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/bright-angel-campground-fatality.htm

Grand Canyon National Park invites bird enthusiasts of all levels to participate in a weekend of birding fun and excitement including a LIVE radio broadcast with Talkin’ Birds Radio. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-bird-festival.htm

NPS fire managers remind visitors and residents that fire danger in the park is very high. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/reminder-of-very-high-fire-danger.htm

Fire crews are actively working to suppress the lightning ignited Imperial Fire. Currently the fire is estimated to be three (3) acres in size and is located along the Cape Royal Road near Vista Encantada. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/imperial-fire-being-suppressed-on-north-rim-of-grand-canyon-national-park-20180718.htm

The Arizona Governor’s Office of Highway Safety, along with the DUI Abatement Council, granted Grand Canyon National Park $10,000 to improve highway safety and stop impaired driving. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-national-park-awarded-state-grant-to-improve-highway-safety-and-stop-impaired-driving.htm

On May 14, biologists with the National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bureau of Reclamation released endangered humpback chub, an endangered fish species endemic to the Colorado River basin, into Bright Angel Creek - following six years of successful removal of nonnative trout. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/humpback-chub-release-ba-creek-may-2018.htm

Highway 89 has been closed due to flooding and road wash out between Cameron and Highway 160 southwest of Tuba City. Grand Canyon National Park remains open to the public. However, detours are in place, extending travel times to the park. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/hwy-89-closure-affects-travel-to-n-and-s-rim-of-grand-canyon-nat-pk.htm

The Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) has reopened US 89 between Cameron and US 160 on the Navajo Nation. Traffic has been restored in both directions following damage caused Wednesday by heavy rains. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/highway-89-has-reopened-between-north-and-south-rim-of-grand-cyn-nat-pk.htm

Using revenue generated by recreation fees Grand Canyon National Park has reopened the South Rim and Desert View entrance stations to provide information and safety messages to visitors.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/park-accessibility-possible-with-rec-fee-dollars-and-az-state-support.htm

Due to water turbidity and maintenance issues, some of the water filling stations and flush toilets normally available along the North Kaibab and Bright Angel Trails at this time of the year will not be open until water conditions change and/or water line repairs are made. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/backcountry-users-advised-of-changes-to-water-availability-on-north-kaibab-and-bright-angel-trails.htm