economic

Will COVID-19 rebalance America’s uneven economic geography? Don’t bet on it.

With the national economy virtually immobilized as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it might seem like the crisis is going to mute the issue of regional economic divergence and its pattern of booming superstar cities and depressed, left-behind places. But don’t be so sure about that. In fact, the pandemic might intensify the unevenness…

       




economic

How COVID-19 will change the nation’s long-term economic trends, according to Brookings Metro scholars

Will the coronavirus change everything? While that sentiment feels true to the enormity of the crisis, it likely isn’t quite right, as scholars from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program have been exploring since the pandemic began. Instead, the COVID-19 crisis seems poised to accelerate or intensify many economic and metropolitan trends that were already underway, with huge…

       




economic

The economic costs of reopening too soon

       




economic

Students have lost learning due to COVID-19. Here are the economic consequences.

Because of the COVID-19 crisis, the US economy has nearly ground to a halt. Tens of millions of workers are now seeing their jobs and livelihoods disappear—in some cases, permanently. Many businesses will never reopen, especially those that have or had large debts to manage. State and federal lawmakers have responded by pouring trillions of…

       




economic

Supporting students and promoting economic recovery in the time of COVID-19

COVID-19 has upended, along with everything else, the balance sheets of the nation’s elementary and secondary schools. As soon as school buildings closed, districts faced new costs associated with distance learning, ranging from physically distributing instructional packets and up to three meals a day, to supplying instructional programming for television and distributing Chromebooks and internet…

       




economic

President Hu Jintao’s Visit: The Economic Challenges and Opportunities

On the eve of President Hu Jintao's long-anticipated visit to Washington, critical economic policy issues loom large for both the U.S. and China. Over the past two decades, China has transformed into a major economic power and continues to play a growing role in the global community. Its ascension is likely to be one of…

       




economic

The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery

The economic activity of the U.S. has plummeted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment has soared—largely the result of social distancing policies designed to slow the spread of the virus. The depth and speed of the decline will rival that of the Great Depression. But will the aftermath be as painful? Or…

       




economic

Made in Africa: manufacturing and economic growth on the continent

In this week’s episode, John Page, a senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program, assesses the potential role of several economic strategies in transforming Africa’s industrial development for the global economy. “Between now and about 2030, the estimates are that as many as 85 million jobs at [the] bottom end of manufacturing will…

      
 
 




economic

What About Microeconomics?

Robert Crandall and Clifford Winston respond to Paul Krugman's recent New York Times Magazine article which laments the current state of macroeconomics. The authors call attention to the fact that Krugman did not mention the state of microeconomics which, they argue, has not suffered any serious intellectual setbacks from the current Great Recession.

      
 
 




economic

Global economic and environmental outcomes of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement, adopted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2015, has now been signed by 197 countries. It entered into force in 2016. The agreement established a process for moving the world toward stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would avoid dangerous climate…

       




economic

Adele Morris on BPEA and looking outside macroeconomics

Adele Morris is a senior fellow in Economic Studies and policy director for Climate and Energy Economics at Brookings. She recently served as a discussant for a paper as part of the Spring 2019 BPEA conference.Her research informs critical decisions related to climate change, energy, and tax policy. She is a leading global expert on the design…

       




economic

Economic sanctions: Assessing their use and implications for U.S. foreign policy

On January 27, Foreign Policy at Brookings hosted a panel discussion on economic sanctions and their implications for advancing U.S. foreign policy objectives. Moderated by Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow Jim Goldgeier, the panel included experts with a combined background on the use of sanctions in the Middle East, Latin America, and North Korea: Brookings…

       




economic

The Economics of the Cross-Strait Services Agreement

On March 30, 2014, 500,000 Taiwanese, according to some observers, gathered in a rally against the hasty ratification of the contentious Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement (CSSTA). The rally marked the climax of the recently concluded 24-day student-led sit-in protest inside Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (LY). Some considered the protest’s rationale plausible and others did not; regardless, a sound resolution…

       




economic

Congressional Testimony: Cross-Strait Economic and Political Issues

Cross-Strait relations have marked a path of reduced tension and increasing cooperation after the election of President Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in 2008. Taiwan’s efforts to institutionalize its engagement with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), particularly in trade and investment activities, presents both opportunities and challenges on both sides…

       




economic

Ryan Hass speaks on a panel about China’s Belt and Road Initiative, hosted by the World Economic Forum in Amman, Jordan

On April 7, Ryan Hass spoke on a panel about China's Belt and Road Initiative and China's relations with the Middle East during a session of the "World Economic Forum on the Middle East and Africa," which was held in Amman, Jordan.

       




economic

Campaign 2016: Ideas for reducing poverty and improving economic mobility


We can be sure that the 2016 presidential candidates, whoever they are, will be in favor of promoting opportunity and cutting poverty. The question is: how? In our contribution to a new volume published today, “Campaign 2016: Eight big issues the presidential candidates should address,” we show that people who clear three hurdles—graduating high school, working full-time, and delaying parenthood until they in a stable, two-parent family—are very much more likely to climb to middle class than fall into poverty:

But what specific policies would help people achieve these three benchmarks of success?  Our paper contains a number of ideas that candidates might want to adopt. Here are a few examples: 

1. To improve high school graduation rates, expand “Small Schools of Choice,” a program in New York City, which replaced large, existing schools with more numerous, smaller schools that had a theme or focus (like STEM or the arts). The program increased graduation rates by about 10 percentage points and also led to higher college enrollment with no increase in costs.

2. To support work, make the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) refundable and cap it at $100,000 in household income. Because the credit is currently non-refundable, low-income families receive little or no benefit, while those with incomes above $100,000 receive generous tax deductions. This proposal would make the program more equitable and facilitate low-income parents’ labor force participation, at no additional cost.

3. To strengthen families, make the most effective forms of birth control (IUDs and implants) more widely available at no cost to women, along with good counselling and a choice of all FDA-approved methods. Programs that have done this in selected cities and states have reduced unplanned pregnancies, saved money, and given women better ability to delay parenthood until they and their partners are ready to be parents. Delayed childbearing reduces poverty rates and leads to better prospects for the children in these families.

These are just a few examples of good ideas, based on the evidence, of what a candidate might want to propose and implement if elected. Additional ideas and analysis will be found in our longer paper on this topic.

Authors

Image Source: © Darren Hauck / Reuters
     
 
 




economic

Walk this Way:The Economic Promise of Walkable Places in Metropolitan Washington, D.C.

An economic analysis of a sample of neighborhoods in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area using walkability measures finds that: More walkable places perform better economically. For neighborhoods within metropolitan Washington, as the number of environmental features that facilitate walkability and attract pedestrians increase, so do office, residential, and retail rents, retail revenues, and for-sale…

       




economic

The economic power of walkability in metro areas

You might be getting whiplash from the latest takes: millennials, a driving force behind the revival of cities, are now fleeing for the suburbs? While the latest census data do show this geographic phenomenon, we should be careful about using an old framing–city versus suburb–to understand a new trend: the growing market for walkable urban…

       




economic

China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power

In 2012, the Chinese government announced two centennial goals. The first was to double the 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2021. The second was to build China into a fully developed country by 2049, the year when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrates its centenary. Indeed,…

       




economic

Iran’s economic reforms in retreat

If the intended aim of the new round of U.S. sanctions were to change Iran’s behavior, it already has. Just not the behavior the Trump team had in mind—Iran abandoning its pursuit of pro-market economic reforms. President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected twice, in 2013 and 2017, on a platform of liberal economic reforms, has…

       




economic

Politics Trump Economics in the Complex Game of Eastern Mediterranean Hydrocarbons


A 2010 publication of the U.S. Geological Survey caused major excitement in Cyprus, an island that at the time was suffering from the economic collapse of its neighbor and major trading partner, Greece. According to the publication, the seabed of the Eastern Mediterranean could contain up to 120 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas.3 Three years later, the Cypriot administration has high hopes that natural gas exports may get Cyprus—the third smallest European Union member state—back on its feet, after its own financial collapse in 2012. Unfortunately for the Cypriots, the reality on the ground is sobering, and it is currently unclear whether Cyprus will become a producer, or an exporter, of natural gas. Around Cyprus, other countries hope to benefit from the energy potential as well, including Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority. In the Israeli Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), in particular, substantial reserves of natural gas have been found, though the verdict is out whether these will in fact all be produced.

Exploration of Cyprus’s offshore concessions is at an early stage. Energy majors such as ENI and Total are among the first to explore possible gas (and oil) reserves and they expect results not before 2015. To date, only two test wells have been drilled by Houston-based Noble Energy. Proven reserves have been downgraded since and are currently estimated to be between 3 and 5 tcf. At this level of reserves, investing in a natural gas liquefaction terminal, which the Cypriot administration has supported, is not economically viable. A better alternative would be to construct a pipeline to Turkey, which has a large and rapidly growing market for natural gas.

Download the full piece »

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Image Source: © Handout . / Reuters
      
 
 




economic

Turkey-Israel relations: a political low point and an economic high point


Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusolu’s decision earlier this month to decline to participate in the Munich Security Conference due to Israeli ministerial participation marks a new low in the troubled Turkish-Israeli relationship.

And yet, the latest statistics released this week by the Israeli government document an overall volume of $5.44 billion dollars in Turkish-Israeli trade during 2014. This marks an all-time high point in Turkish-Israeli economic relations, up 11.5 percent from 2013, including $2.75 billion in Israeli exports to Turkey (a 10 percent year-to-year increase) and $2.68 billion in Turkish imports to Israel (13 percent higher than 2013).

This pattern of an almost non-existent political dialogue at the senior levels accompanied by robust bilateral trade has characterized the Turkish-Israeli relationship since 2011. Short of unexpected dramatic changes, the relations between the two former allies will likely continue in this pattern for the foreseeable future. 

Almost two years after Israel’s official apology to Turkey over the Mavi Marmara incident (which I wrote about in depth here), the two countries continue to move in different directions, despite sharing similar strategic concerns on a range of regional issues – the civil war in Syria, instability in Iraq and Iran’s nuclear program.

The main bone of contention between the AKP-led Turkish government and the Likud-led government in Israel remains the Palestinian issue. Turkey continues to speak out against Israeli occupation and settlement activity in the West Bank, as well as on Israeli human rights violations towards the Palestinian population. In addition, Turkey remains one of the main (very few) patrons of Hamas, providing the group with political and economic support and allowing the organization to maintain representation in Istanbul. Israel viewed with disdain Turkish attempts, together with Qatar, to facilitate a ceasefire with Hamas during the summer 2014 war. Anti-Turkish sentiments in Israeli public opinion skyrocketed in response to President Erdogan’s allegations that Israeli policies on Gaza are genocidal. 

Amidst rising tensions in the relationship, President Erdogan publicly vowed after his August 2014 election that as long as he’s in power, Turkey’s approach to Israel will not change. As a result, there are no serious expectations that any senior-level political dialogue will resume, and mutual representation is likely to remain at a junior diplomatic level (after ambassadors were withdrawn from Tel Aviv and Ankara in 2011).

The interesting aspect of the relationship continues to be the booming trade between the two countries, which despite political tensions continues to grow at a rapid pace. Clearly there is an interest on both sides to insulate the economic sphere from the political sphere. Robust trade serves both countries’ economic interests and during a very unstable period keeps the relationship afloat. Nevertheless, an Israeli – Turkish natural gas deal which was considered in the past as a likely scenario and possibly a regional and bilateral “game changer” seems at present to be “off the table.” Potential energy cooperation between Turkey and Israel around the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas discoveries may be possible only in the context of political rapprochement. 

Authors

Image Source: © Baz Ratner / Reuters
      
 
 




economic

It's time to bring back Home Economics class

There are many benefits to offering an updated version of home economics at school.




economic

Green economies offer small islands new economic and ecological opportunities

Environmental sustainability doesn’t have to come at the expense of economic development.




economic

The impact on Nigeria of the coronavirus pandemic: socioeconomic pandemonium!

It would be hell if the Covid-19 breaks out in Nigeria on the scale presently being witnessed in Europe and the US. Apart from the dire state of the healthcare system, 69 million Nigerians have no access to clean water. This invariably leads to water-borne diseases like cholera, which continue to break out as regular epidemics. Social distancing and self-isolation presuppose that people have enough space. In Lagos where we have over 100 slum areas, about 80 people can be found sharing a 10-room building with only two toilets and a bathroom being shared by all with no pipe-borne or treated water readily available.




economic

New Survey Explores Link Between Views on Politics, Economics, and Global Warming

Photo courtesy of Next Nature American Climate Values Survey Views on global warming may be more strongly politically and economically influenced than many may have hoped. The recently released results of the American Climate Values Survey, conducted




economic

Injecting Aerosols Into Atmosphere to Slow Global Warming Environmentally & Economically Risky

Another report on another geoengineering method that is likely too risky to try and utterly not cost-effective: Injecting aerosols into the atmosphere to slow warming (which would do absolutely nothing about ocean acidification, by the way).




economic

70% of Americans think the environment is more important than economic growth

Turns out, environmental issues are not about awareness. People get it.




economic

Does the Environment Win When Economic Crisis Sends Immigrants Home?

Turkish cities have been the stage for culture clashes in recent years, as residents of rural areas moved to urban areas in large numbers, bringing what many urbanites see as




economic

Economical and efficient "Energy Positive" house built in Wales, just in time for standards to be killed by government

It could of been a great prototype for affordable efficient housing across Britain.




economic

Meatonomics explores the bizarre economic forces that drive meat & dairy production

According to the research of author David Simon, the externalized cost of our animal food system totals about $414 billion per year, which is carried by all of us.




economic

Clean tech is better for economic growth than fossil fuels (take that, Big Oil!)

Anti-greens often try to make economic arguments against the big spring-cleaning that our civilization is going through.






economic

8-month 'structured lockdowns' could halve economic damage from the coronavirus, research claims

Researchers at Cambridge University and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board found that imposing no lockdown measures in the face of Covid-19 was "extremely risky" for developed economies.




economic

US services sector posts biggest contraction since 2009 as coronavirus halts economic activity

The U.S. services sector contracted for the first time in about a decade last month as the coronavirus pandemic brought economic activity in the country to a near-screeching halt.




economic

Markets have priced in bad economic data, but not trade tensions: Strategist

Markets are unlikely to react to bad economic data in the second quarter, says Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets, adding that any volatility seen near-term will be from a resurgence in U.S.-China trade tensions.




economic

Bankrate: Americans are still grappling with the enormity of the economic crisis related to the virus pandemic

Bankrate's Mark Hamrick discusses the findings of a new survey on how Americans are feeling about their financial health, more than a month into coronavirus stay-at-home measures.




economic

Wieting: There is some visibility that six months from now economic activity will be higher than it is now

Steven Wieting of Citi Private Bank discusses whether the equity markets may be running ahead of themselves, given the many still-unknowns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.




economic

Jablonski: There's a big difference between the economic outlook and what the markets are doing

Sylvia Jablonski of Direxion discusses the disconnect between real economic conditions on the ground and how the markets are reacting amid the COVID-19 pandemic.




economic

Emanuel: The market has tried to take bad economic news in stride

Julian Emanuel of BTIG discusses whether health data related to the virus pandemic has become the market's new economic data.




economic

Ted Cruz, other senators, warn Saudis to stop using oil in 'economic warfare' against the US

Sen. Ted Cruz said a group of nine senators recently ripped into the Saudi ambassador to the United States in a conference call over its oil price war with Russia.




economic

Wall Street bulls and bears fight over what the economic recovery from coronavirus will look like

Strategists debate how long it will take to contain the coronavirus outbreak as it hits the United States and roils markets.




economic

Economic scars will remain for EU after coronavirus, official says

EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni discusses the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic across the euro zone.




economic

Long-term economic scarring should justify further easing from Bank of England, economist says

Fabrice Montagne, chief U.K. economist at Barclays, discusses the U.K. economy.




economic

HSBC results were unsurprising given economic fallout from coronavirus, says analyst

HSBC's first-quarter earnings were not surprising given the global economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, says Filippo Alloatti, senior credit analyst at Federated Hermes. He also discusses the bank's decision to suspend share buybacks and dividend payouts for now.




economic

The coronavirus crisis is 'accelerating' the need for economic transformation: Citi

Miguel Azevedo of Citi discusses the coronavirus pandemic's impact on Middle Eastern nations, mergers and acquisitions, and economic activity in the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.




economic

Op-ed: Why financial literacy matters in an economic crisis

A new survey finds nearly 9 in 10 Americans say the COVID-19 crisis is causing stress on their personal finances, highlighting the importance of financial literacy.




economic

Op-Ed: Britain needs an economic model to guide the lifting of the coronavirus lockdown

Covid-19 has forced epidemiology and economics to become intertwined as never before.




economic

One of Main Street's biggest fears in economic reopening — new regulations

As small businesses across the country grapple with economic reopening, one of their biggest fears is that new regulations will be a net negative for post-Covid-19 Main Street.