1. Chennai doctor stabbed by assilants posing as patients  The Times of India
2. Chennai Doctor Stabbed 7 Times By Son Of Woman Who Had Cancer  NDTV
3. Doctor stabbed by patient’s attendant at Kalaignar Centenary Super Speciality Hospital in Chennai  The Hindu
4. Patient's son stabs doctor 7 times in Chennai hospital, arrested  India Today
5. Doctor stabbed multiple times in Tamil Nadu government hospital by patient’s relative  Deccan Herald

NASA astronaut Suni Williams says her weight is stable aboard the International Space Station, rebutting tabloid claims that her orbital stay has made her emaciated.

I do a detailed analysis of Cantor’s theory of uncountable sets. The logic of his proofs has some weaknesses. I propose an axiom and a solution to continuum hypothesis. The main idea is: Assumption of Cantor’s proofs: All real numbers (set R) are in a list (list L). This assumption means R=L, considering L as...

An analysis of Cantor’s theory of uncountable sets: The logic of his proofs has some weaknesses. Cantor assumes for both his proofs that all real numbers (set R) are in a list (list L). Considering L as a set this assumption assumes R belongs to L. This makes the claim “a real number is constructed...

The post How to Use a Graphics Tablet to Edit Photos: 10 Powerful Tips appeared first on Digital Photography School. It was authored by John McIntire.

Photo editing is simpler than ever thanks to the power of a graphics tablet! Explore our top 10 tips to level up your skills. If you’re just getting started with post-processing and retouching, you’re probably using a mouse and keyboard combo. You can get by with this setup, sure. But when the tasks become more […]

The post How to Use a Graphics Tablet to Edit Photos: 10 Powerful Tips appeared first on Digital Photography School. It was authored by John McIntire.

IKEA hacks that go viral? It’s often the simplest ideas, brilliantly executed, mixed with a healthy dose of “It’s so easy, even you can do it” appeal. The latest sensation comes from Ayse Balci of @interiorundco, whose stylish DIY project has been turning heads on Instagram, amassing an impressive 115,000 likes and counting. Have you seen it yet? It’s a fantastic DIY project that transforms the popular and affordable 13 3/4″ LACK side table into a stylish chrome cube side […]

The post How a Basic IKEA Table Became a Viral Sensation (So Easy Anyone Can DIY It) appeared first on IKEA Hackers.

My search for the perfect sideboard has been going on for like ever. Like many home decor enthusiasts, I found myself caught between my champagne taste and lemonade budget – until I came across @interiorxlifestyle‘s IKEA hack. She transformed the affordable IKEA GURSKEN nightstands into a sophisticated storage sideboard that may just be the thing I’m looking for. On its own, a single hacked GURSKEN might not amount to much. But when you place five of these hacked beauties in […]

The post The $20 IKEA Bedside Table That Became a Luxury Sideboard appeared first on IKEA Hackers.

If you love pasta, but don’t often find suitable gluten-free alternatives in restaurants, Charlie's Table gluten-free products may be the answer for you. In fact, this craft pasta and pasta flour blend not only caters to the gluten intolerant, but is free of the top nine food allergens.[...]

Google said it discovered a zero-day vulnerability in the SQLite open-source database engine using its large language model (LLM) assisted framework called Big Sleep (formerly Project Naptime). The tech giant described the development as the "first real-world vulnerability" uncovered using the artificial intelligence (AI) agent. "We believe this is the first public example of an AI agent finding

In honor of his parents, Chemistry Nobel Laureate David MacMillan has founded The May and Billy MacMillan Foundation to provide educational opportunities for financially disadvantaged students in Scotland.

PivotTables are a powerful tool to calculate, summarize, and analyze data that lets you see comparisons, patterns, and trends in your data. This session will introduce participants PivotTables and their functionality. We will also discuss creating PivotCharts, a graphical representation of a data summary displayed in a PivotTable.

eLab Accelerator Info Table

On the off chance that you are a well-being cognizant voyager or a rec center goer, what you should have is the Best Portable Blender.

The post 15 Best Portable Blender While Traveling 2024 – Top Portable Kitchen Machine appeared first on Star Two.

7-minute video shows how you can a single line of text from either a .txt file or a database, for example, displaying name of duty manager. The ability to display database information is available in the Corporate and Media Wall editions of Repeat Signage digital signage software. Ideal for displaying company information on any screen anywhere.

Located on the Caribbean coast, Cozumel has some of the most stunning beaches in the world. It’s not just the turquoise waters and soft sandy beaches that attract tourists from all over the world. The island is also known for its spectacular sunsets, painting the sky in vibrant colors of orange, pink and red, and promising a magical end to every day. Looking for the perfect sunset spot Seeing the sunset, however, is only half the experience. It can escalate from a simple natural phenomenon to an unforgettable memory where you choose to see it. Enter the quintessential beach bar. These getaways dot Cozumel’s beaches, each offering a different climate and different temperatures. It is important to choose the right one. With the perfect cocktail in hand, it can mean the difference between a beautiful sunset and an extraordinary sunset. Choosing where to stumble in the evening light isn’t just about finding the best spot. It’s about the atmosphere, the drinks, the service, and how the sound of the waves matches the music in the background. It is a form of art. And we’re here to guide you through it. Unveiling the Top 10 Beach Bars in Cozumel for Stunning Sunsets Cozumel, a gem in the Caribbean, is famed not just for its crystal-clear waters and vibrant marine life but also for its spectacular sunsets that paint the sky in shades of orange, pink, and purple. Among the best ways to enjoy these magical moments is from the comfort of the island’s best beach bars. Here’s a countdown to the top 10 beach bars in Cozumel for those unforgettable sunset views. 10. The Sunset Lounge Description: Nestled on the quieter side of the island, The Sunset Lounge offers a laid-back vibe with hammocks and cozy seating. Their signature cocktail, the “Caribbean Sunset”, combines local fruits with aged rum. Ambiance: Chill and intimate Unique Feature: A private pier for sunset gazers Best Time for Sunsets: Arrive an hour before sunset for the perfect spot. Interesting Fact: The Sunset Lounge was once a private retreat before opening its doors to the public. 9. Ocean Vibes Bar Description: A vibrant spot where live music and ocean views create a lively atmosphere. Their “Blue Horizon” cocktail is a must-try. Ambiance: Festive and musical Unique Feature: Live bands every evening Best Time for Sunsets: The party starts in the late afternoon, leading up to sunset. Interesting Fact: Ocean Vibes Bar holds a record for hosting the longest-running beach party on the island. 8. Coral Reef Inn Description: More of a cozy inn with a spectacular beach bar, it’s known for its extensive tequila selection and the “Mayan Mule” cocktail. Ambiance: Rustic and cozy Unique Feature: An underwater-themed bar top Best Time for Sunsets: Just as the dusk settles in. Interesting Fact: Its signature bar top features real corals and artifacts found in Cozumel’s waters. 7. Sunset Paradise Description: This bar offers panoramic views of the ocean, making it a prime spot for sunset watching. Their specialty is the “Paradise Punch”. Ambiance: Romantic and serene Unique Feature: Elevated decks for an unobstructed view Best Time for Sunsets: Half an hour before sunset is ideal. Interesting Fact: The bar’s location was chosen specifically for its unobstructed sunset views. 6. Azure Sky Bar Description: Famous for its signature “Azure Martini” and a sophisticated atmosphere. It’s a favorite among luxury travelers. Ambiance: Elegant and upscale Unique Feature: An infinity pool that blends with the ocean horizon Best Time for Sunsets: Right as the sun begins to dip below the horizon. Interesting Fact: The bar was designed by a renowned architect who wanted to capture the essence of the ocean in every element. 5. La Cazuela del Mar Description: Known for its seafood cuisine, this bar’s “Seaside Sangria” is a refreshing accompaniment to the stunning views. Ambiance: Casual and friendly Unique Feature: A menu that changes daily based on the catch of the day Best Time for Sunsets: Early evening to enjoy dinner with the show. Interesting Fact: The owner is a former fisherman who shares tales of the sea with guests. 4. The Horizon Club Description: Overlooking the highest point on the island, this bar offers not just cocktails, like their “Horizon Spritz”, but also a breathtaking view of the entire bay. Ambiance: Exclusive and private Unique Feature: A telescope for star-gazing post-sunset Best Time for Sunsets: An hour before sunset to appreciate the changing colors. Interesting Fact: It stood as a historical lookout post in the 18th century. 3. Pirate’s Hideaway Description: With a fun pirate theme, this bar serves a “Treasure Chest” cocktail filled with rum and tropical fruits. Ambiance: Fun and thematic Unique Feature: Authentic pirate memorabilia Best Time for Sunsets: As the sun starts its descent, to capture the golden hour. Interesting Fact: The bar is rumored to be built on an actual pirate hideout. 2. Moonlit Mirage Description: Offering serenity alongside inventive cocktails like the “Moonlit Mojito”, this bar is perfect for a tranquil sunset. Ambiance: Quiet and reflective Unique Feature: Moonlight reflection pools Best Time for Sunsets: Moments before the sun meets the horizon. Interesting Fact: The reflection pools are a nod to the ancient Mayan practices of moon gazing. 1. The Majestic View Description: Crowned as the best beach bar for sunsets in Cozumel, The Majestic View marvels with its “Cosmic Colada”, an interplay of local spices and coconut rum. Ambiance: Breathtaking and unforgettable Unique Feature: A cliff-top location that offers a 360-degree view of the surrounding landscape and ocean. Best Time for Sunsets: Be there an hour early to catch the gradual change in scenery. Interesting Fact: It’s said that on certain evenings, the conditions create a green flash phenomenon just as the sun sets. Each of these beach bars in Cozumel offers a unique experience for sunset seekers. From the vibrant and lively to the serene and intimate, there’s a spot for every kind of traveler looking to capture the essence of Cozumel’s sunsets. Whether you’re there for the cocktails, the company, or just the views, these bars are sure to make your evenings in Cozumel unforgettable. Additional Tips for the Perfect Sunset Experience Best Sunset Watching Practices To guarantee you don’t miss out on the splendid Cozumel sunset: Ideal Arrival Time: Aim to arrive at least an hour before the expected sunset time. This allows you to secure the best viewing spot. Photography Tips: Use a low ISO setting to avoid grainy photos. Set your camera to a small aperture (high f-number) for a deeper depth of field. Utilize the golden hour filter on photo apps for an enhanced effect. Local Etiquette and Tips Being mindful of local customs and practices enhances the experience: Local Customs: Always ask for permission before taking photos of the locals or private properties. Happy Hour Info: Many beach bars offer ‘happy hour’ specials 1-2 hours before sunset, making it a great time to enjoy discounted drinks as you wait for the sunset. Map and Directions While a detailed map cannot be displayed here, all mentioned beach bars are located along Cozumel’s western coast, facing the Caribbean Sea, ideal for sunset views. You can easily find them marked on any local map provided by the tourist offices in Cozumel. Transport Options: Taxi: Readily available and reasonably priced. Ensure to agree on the fare before the ride. Rentals: Scooters and cars are available for rent if you prefer exploring at your own pace. Public Transport: Buses and colectivos (shared vans) run frequently along the main road, offering an economical way to travel. conclusion Cozumel’s beach bars not only offer delicious drinks and a lively atmosphere, but also some of the most spectacular sunsets in the Caribbean. Remember to arrive early, be mindful of local customs, and don’t forget your camera to capture amazing scenes. Whether you want a romantic evening, a quiet solo getaway, or a fun night out with friends, these bars offer the perfect setting. We encourage all visitors to explore these areas and discover the natural beauty and unique local hospitality that Cozumel offers. And once you soak in the unique sunset, be sure to share your experience or personal tips to help your fellow travelers make the most of their Cozumel trip.

The post 10 Best Beach Bars in Cozumel for Unforgettable Sunsets appeared first on Geeky Traveller.

The following article, Check out the Leftist Notables Who Have NOT Donated to Harris, was first published on The Black Sphere.

What's up rich Leftists? Do you know something you're not telling the minions of your party?

Continue reading Check out the Leftist Notables Who Have NOT Donated to Harris ...

A new update is rolling out that automatically starts Microsoft's Edge browser and prompts users to import their Chrome tabs -- a move that has sparked criticism over its invasive tactics to encourage Edge adoption. The Verge's Tom Warren reports: My colleague Richard Lawler noticed that Edge started automatically on his PC last week at boot and offered up a new prompt to "enhance your browsing experience." The pop-up has a "bring over your data from other browsers regularly" option ticked by default, and encourages people to confirm and continue with a big blue button. If you want to dismiss this prompt there's a tiny white X button that looks similar to the sparkles Microsoft is using in the background of the prompt. If you simply hit confirm and continue then Microsoft Edge will import your Chrome data and continually import your tabs if you have Chrome set as default. The prompt seems to mainly appear on PCs with Chrome installed, suggesting that Microsoft is once again targeting Chrome users. Microsoft confirmed the new "feature" to The Verge. "This is a notification giving people the choice to import data from other browsers," explains Microsoft spokesperson Caitlin Roulston. "There is an option to turn it off."

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

A 'hybrid model' for hosting the Champions Trophy will not be accepted by Pakistan, according to its Cricket Board chairman Mohsin Naqvi.

Musse Ali, 66, appeared before Croydon magistrates following the attack on Sunday morning.

A tech recruiting firm left a database unsecured that exposed emails, passport numbers and partial SSNs of job seekers, a security researcher says.

The following article, ‘Utterly Unacceptable’: After Helping Trump Win, Elon Musk Makes Crucial Endorsement For Senate Majority Leader, was first published on Conservative Firing Line.

Despite a landslide victory for Donald Trump and his “Make America Great Again” agenda last week, a ferocious battle has suddenly broken out in the U.S. Senate over who will be the chamber’s new leader, with some saying outgoing Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is trying to thwart the plans of the president-elect. “What the hell …

Continue reading ‘Utterly Unacceptable’: After Helping Trump Win, Elon Musk Makes Crucial Endorsement For Senate Majority Leader ...

The first battle cry has sounded ahead of the showdown at Twickenham on Saturday, with English winger Tommy Freeman reckoning that the Springboks are 'still human' and 'still playing the same game'.

Fostering inclusive health systems amidst geopolitical instability 13 October 2024 — 9:00AM TO 10:00AM Anonymous (not verified) 11 September 2024 Sheraton Berlin Grand Hotel Esplanade

How can we build trust and inclusivity in the health sector in a fractured geopolitical environment?

Building trust in government, service provision and delivery are crucial considerations for policymakers who aim to make local, national and international health systems more inclusive. In the health space, trust can be a matter of life and death. Understanding and modulating policies that account for the trust factor, alongside the geopolitical determinants of health, can lead to more inclusive decision making and thus better health outcomes for larger proportions of a population.

International unity is key to addressing the challenges posed by geopolitical instability, which include disinformation campaigns, rising nationalism and growing divisions between states. If countries can find common ground through an inclusive approach to health, the effects could be transformative in achieving global health and equity targets.

This discussion, held in partnership with Haleon, will examine what it takes to foster trust and resilience in the health sector, achieve global inclusivity aims and chart a path for the public and private spheres to come together to navigate a fractured geopolitical environment.

• In what ways can localised health inclusivity data help policymakers to alleviate gaps in healthcare provision and why is this an essential element in instilling trust across the system?
• What role should multilateral organizations play in setting precedents for health inclusivity around the world?
• How do health inclusivity policies empower the service user and help reduce the burden placed on public healthcare systems?
• How can the health sector come together to ensure individuals are included within their own health decisions, are able to access services regardless of demographics and geography and trust their healthcare providers?

This event will be held at the Sheraton Hotel, Grand Esplanade, Berlin in the margins of the World Health Summit. You do not need a ticket for the World Health Summit to attend this event.

In their comment (1) on our publication (2), the authors make two points: (i) they raise concerns about the possible effect of residual NONOate in our study, and (ii) they promote nitrosylcobalamin (NOCbl) supplied by their own company. Both points lack merit for the following reasons. The authors make the astonishing claim that the spectra of nitric oxide (NO•) and cobalamins overlap. Unlike NO•, cobalamin absorbs in the visible region, permitting unequivocal spectral assignment of NOCbl as reported (3). We demonstrated that whereas NOCbl is highly unstable in solution, it is stabilized by the B12 trafficking protein CblC. So even if present, residual NONOate (which is unstable at neutral pH and is removed during the work-up (3)) could not account for the observed difference.The authors then misrepresent our synthetic method, claiming that anaerobic conditions were used to generate nitrocobalamin (NO2Cbl), which results in the transient formation of NOCbl. We synthesized NO2Cbl aerobically using nitrite as described (4); NOCbl is not an intermediate in this ligand exchange reaction. The aerobic instability of NOCbl has been rigorously described by inorganic chemists (3, 5) and raises obvious questions about its purported biological effects as exemplified by the authors' own 2003 JBC publication, which was later withdrawn.As to promoting NOCbl from their company, the authors refer to a synthetic route from a mixture of NO• gas and aquocobalamin. The authors' method (6) has been described as “dubious” by chemists (5). Whereas DEAE NONOate used in our method is widely known as an NO• donor,...

After a thorough read of this paper (1), we wish to clarify that the authors' anaerobic method of synthesis for the production of nitrocobalamin results in the transient formation of nitrosylcobalamin, an unstable intermediate upon exposure to air. We concur that the authors' method results in the production of nitrocobalamin based on the UV-visible data as shown. The authors' adapted anaerobic method consists of mixing hydroxocobalamin hydrochloride with diethylamine NONOate diethylammonium salt in aqueous solution. Of concern, the UV spectrum of nitric oxide overlaps that of all cobalamin species under anaerobic conditions, making any assignments of the binding of nitric oxide to hydroxocobalamin suspect (2). Additionally, the use of acetone to precipitate the authors' product causes precipitation of diethylamine NONOate, resulting in an impure product. As a result, its utility for drawing experimental conclusions is faulty.The product from the authors' anaerobic synthetic method has not been assessed for purity, and the synthetic method itself has not been validated using a stability-indicating method as required by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) (ICH Q2B, Validation of Analytical Procedures) methodology, which is a hallmark for analytical characterization. Our nitrosylcobalamin synthesis involves reacting nitric oxide gas with hydroxocobalamin acetate as a heterogeneous mixture in a non-electron-donating solvent followed by rotary evaporation. Our nitrosylcobalamin product is stable in air, releases nitric oxide gas in situ (3), and meets ICH stability guidelines (4). Additionally, our nitrosylcobalamin product demonstrates biological activity, which has not been observed for nitrocobalamin (3, 5).

China Needs to Make the Belt and Road Initiative More Transparent and Predictable Expert comment sysadmin 29 April 2019

The global infrastructure project must move beyond mish-mash of opaque bilateral deals

As China welcomes dozens of world leaders to Beijing for its second Belt and Road forum, it has one simple aim: relaunching President Xi Jinping’s controversial global infrastructure drive.

Since it began five years ago, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has sunk hundreds of billions into port, railway and power projects stretching from south-east Asia to central Europe. But its path has been bumpy, drawing sharp criticism over the ruinous debts that some countries have racked up amid Chinese largesse.

Xi will stress sustainable financing and transparency this week, amid the usual talk of ‘win win’ cooperation. Yet BRI’s problems are structural, not presentational. For any pledges to be meaningful, China must move beyond its present mish-mash of opaque, bilateral deals.

After bad headlines last year, BRI has in fact enjoyed a good run in recent weeks. Malaysia announced it would resume a previously cancelled high-speed rail project, while Italy’s decision to join up last month marked a further European incursion. Indeed, if attendance is any guide to success, BRI looks in fine fettle. The first forum in 2017 attracted 29 world leaders. China says 37 will turn up this week. Phillip Hammond, UK chancellor, arrives hunting deals too, just a day after news that Chinese technology group Huawei will be allowed to help build 5G networks in Britain.

Even so, three interlinked problems remain at the heart of President Xi’s pet project, all of which must be addressed if BRI is to move beyond the pitfalls that have damaged its reputation.

The first and most obvious is debt. Critics allege that China ‘traps’ its BRI partners financially, often pointing to a debt-for-equity deal that handed China control of a port in Sri Lanka. These claims are exaggerated — few other projects have ended up this way. Yet poorer nations from Laos to Tajikistan are still signing up to vastly expensive Chinese schemes that offer poor value for money while straining their public finances.

The second problem is transparency. Despite its grand scale there is still no reliable list of BRI projects, no disclosure of the lending standards China follows, nor even the amount China has invested. Beijing claims more than $1 trillion; independent estimates suggest perhaps a few hundred billion. Either way, it will be hard for China to convince doubters on debts until it is open about the criteria it uses in deciding who to lend to and why.

BRI’s third and most important challenge is its muddled organization. Despite BRI’s image as a centrally run mega-project, China has allowed many deals to be struck locally, via a mix of state-backed companies, public sector banks and freewheeling regional governments. And it is here that the problems began.

Infrastructure deals are notoriously complex, especially for transnational projects like high-speed rail. Renegotiations are common, even for experienced bodies like the World Bank. Yet BRI has repeatedly seen terms negotiated behind closed doors, in countries such as Malaysia and Pakistan, come unstuck in the face of public outcry.

Rather than seeking to trap others with debt, China’s central government more often has to step in to fix dubious projects agreed by underlings lower down the chain.

These negotiations go one of two ways. Either China’s partners complain and win terms, as was true in Malaysia and in Myanmar over a multibillion-dollar deep-sea port. Or, as in the case of Sri Lanka, the renegotiations go in China’s favour, but at the cost of accusations of debt trickery. In both cases China looks bad.

Speaking last year, Xi responded to criticism of BRI by describing it as ‘an open platform for cooperation’. Yet, so far, he has proved resistant to the step that would deliver on that vision — namely turning BRI into an institution with open standards and international partners.

The reasons for his reluctance are obvious. Ending BRI’s reliance on loose bilateral deals would limit Beijing’s room for geopolitical manoeuvre. Yet what might be lost in political flexibility could easily be gained in economic credibility, while avoiding some of the painful renegotiations that have dogged many BRI projects.

At a time when China’s economy is slowing and its current account surplus is shrinking, formalising and institutionalising, BRI could also help avoid wasting scarce public resources on white elephant projects. China even has an easy template in the form of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Beijing-based institution that has won plaudits for its project quality and openness since it started in 2016.

Whichever model is chosen, a dose of Chinese-style central planning is called for, along with more openness. Without it, the oddly chaotic and decentralised model pioneered in BRI’s first five years is unlikely to help the project thrive over the next five.

This article was originally published in the Financial Times.

Virtual Roundtable: The Economic Implications of COVID-19 on Asia 2 April 2020 — 11:00AM TO 12:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 27 March 2020 Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a damaging economic impact on Asia, potentially the most serious since the financial crisis two decades ago. While early estimates suggest that a recession is inevitable, differing countries in Asia are generally deploying modest fiscal and monetary measures. This is true even in China, compared with the ‘whatever it takes’ approach pursued by Europe and America.

How effective will these measures be in reviving growth and in easing the pain, particularly on the poor in developing countries in Asia? Is Asia witnessing a sudden but temporary halt in economic activity rather than a prolonged slowdown? At this virtual roundtable, the speakers will consider the likelihood of a recovery for trade in the region and will explore what lessons can be learned from countries like Singapore, who seem to be successfully managing the health and economic aspects of COVID-19.

This event is online only. After registering, you will receive a follow-up confirmation email with details of how to join the webinar.

America’s vote shows a desire for stability and calm Expert comment NCapeling 11 November 2022

Joe Biden has presided over the best midterm election results by a party in power in two decades, but the future for the Republican Party leadership is now uncertain.

For a president continually struggling with low approval ratings, the midterms provided a stunning result as the widely anticipated Republican red wave failed to materialize.

Although Democrats look set to lose their majority in the House, it is by a much smaller margin than either history or today’s pollsters anticipated. Democrats have maintained their majority in the Senate, a result that was confirmed four days after election day when Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection. The final Senate seat will be decided by a 6 December run-off in the state of Georgia. 

The midterm elections were not good for the Republican party but were especially bad for Donald Trump who has until now managed to defy expectations and maintain his grip on the party even after his 2020 defeat at the polls.

Trump managed to win the presidency once but he lost the popular vote twice and at no stage during his time in office did his approval ratings go above 40 per cent. Now, after six years of the most divisive and disruptive leadership the US has ever seen, he has presided over the worst midterm results a party out of power has suffered in two decades.

Trump’s influence is on the wane

Many of the candidates endorsed by the former president – including in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona – lost. In Georgia, the Republican governor and Trump GOP rival won, despite Trump’s opposition, and the candidate he endorsed for the US Senate has come up short of the 50 per cent needed to get over the line in the first round.

Trump’s nemesis, Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida, won a second four-year term in a landslide. Trump is suffering attacks from his own party and many loyal media supporters, such as Fox News, the New York Post, and the Wall Street Journal. None of this bodes well for the prospect of Trump leading the party through the 2024 presidential election.

After six years of chaos, this upset has been delivered with remarkably little chaos and, so far, no violence in a win for democracy and stability in the US which will reverberate beyond the US shores.

The system has worked, with multiple elections held across all 50 states. Hotly contested seats were decided peacefully even when the margins were thin. The midterm elections were also a win for democracy. In every battleground state, election deniers that were nominated to run for offices that would control state election systems, including in the 2024 presidential elections, have been defeated.

For a country with a polarized electorate and a radical Republican leader who has continued to spread disinformation and sought to rile his base, this election has been surprisingly normal.

This means the debate about the future of America’s international leadership is postponed. Biden is still in the saddle and, instead of a battle for control inside the Democratic party, it is the Republicans who look set to descend into internal conflict and recrimination.

The unofficial contest to win the Republican nomination for president has already begun. Donald Trump has signalled loudly that he plans to run. If he does, it could impact Republican prospects in the 6 December runoff for the final seat in the Senate. DeSantis may also run and could be followed by several aspiring Republican candidates. A disrupted party facing a period of significant change seems likely. 

Inflation and the economy proved key factors

As always, foreign policy barely featured in the elections but the result promises a period of continuity. Instead of facing dangerous sniping on Ukraine from an emboldened Republican House leadership, the Biden administration looks set to hold to its Ukraine policy.

Biden’s increasingly hard-line policy on China will continue to be qualified by a clear-headed determination – however hard – to cooperate on climate. Trade policy will remain stuck, as will US policy in the developing world.

Exit polls show Democrats were motivated to vote by the reversal of Roe vs Wade and the restrictions on abortion rights that followed, while Republicans voted against inflation.

But Democrats at the national level continually failed to effectively communicate the positive impacts of Biden’s legislative agenda for ordinary Americans, or to deliver a clear economic message.

The national leadership veered from abortion rights to the Inflation Reduction Act, to the future of democracy in the US – all of which proved too complicated to cut through.

The state level shows a more complex picture because inflation and the economy – which could have swept Republicans to victory – were blunted by dogged local campaigning from Democrats who knew their voters and spoke to the cost-of-living concerns which were top of their minds.

Nuclear stability for all put at risk by Putin's speech Explainer NCapeling 22 February 2023

Explaining the risks of Russia’s decision to suspend the New START nuclear treaty with the US, and the wider implications for international relations.

Why is New START important?

Following the collapse of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF), New START is the only remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia.

This means that without it there would be no limits on numbers or the type of Russian and US deployed nuclear warheads. The limits set under New START are lower than those set under its predecessor, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

It is also important for maintaining some form of strategic arms control between Russia and the US. The treaty provides the US and Russia with mechanisms for transparency and confidence-building, for instance through regular biannual data exchanges, as well as measures for verification.

What is Russia able to do next after suspending participation?

President Vladimir Putin’s decision to suspend its participation could pave the way for Russia to increase the number of deployed warheads, delivery vehicles and launchers, potentially exceeding the limits placed on numbers under the new START.

Putin stated he would resume testing of nuclear weapons if the US resumed – Russia is a full state party to the nuclear Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) negotiated in 1996, as is the UK and France. The US has signed, as has China, but neither state has yet ratified the treaty.

Other countries required to ratify the treaty for it to enter into force include Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan.

Although the US is modernizing its nuclear weapons forces, there is no need – or plan – for the US to test nuclear warheads, and it is the same for the UK and France.

Concerns are now rising that Russia could point to no-fissionable yield experiments – which are allowed under the treaty and which the US and other nuclear weapons possessors conduct primarily for safety purposes – and then falsely declare those to be nuclear weapons tests, thus paving the way for a narrative to justify the resumption of nuclear testing by Russia.

Conducting a nuclear weapons test would be seen clearly as a further step on the escalation scale towards nuclear use for Russia.

While inspections of nuclear weapons sites had not resumed since COVID-19, Russia’s suspension of its participation could result in the further halting of other transparency and verification measures under New START, including the regular mutual data exchanges between the US and Russia – for example on warhead numbers, locations, and technical information on weapons systems and their sites – which are conducted through the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC).

What is the difference between withdrawing from New START and ‘suspending’ participation?

In his speech, Putin announced the suspension of Russian participation in New START. While this does not mean Russia has formally withdrawn from the treaty, the suspension could enable Russia to continue preventing the US from inspecting its nuclear weapons sites and halt Russia’s participation in other obligations, such as the routine reporting and data exchanges on nuclear weapons as well as meetings of the BCC.

The decision to suspend participation rather than withdraw from the treaty means Russia retains the option to return to compliance at a later point. However, it is not yet clear under what conditions Russia would opt to return to compliance with the treaty, or whether this means the US will, in turn, suspend their own obligations.

The treaty text itself does not provide for a suspension of participation by parties to the treaty. However, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties does address the mechanisms for suspension of participation in a treaty. Russia is a full state party to the Vienna Convention, but the US has remained a signatory without ratification since 1970.

There is a precedent of Russia suspending its membership in arms control treaties rather than withdrawing, which is when Russia suspended its participation in the original Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) in 2007.

The US does not recognize Russia’s suspension of its participation in the CFE treaty, but this does not make a material difference to Russian actions.

What does the suspension mean for the wider international treaty regime?

Russia’s suspension of the New START could signal the end of strategic arms control between the two countries. There is now virtually no regular scheduled arms control communication between the two countries bilaterally – this is a dangerous position to be in, especially in times of crisis.

The suspension of New START further erodes limited recourse for communication between the two countries, by suspending information exchange and meetings of the BCC under the treaty.

This is likely to have wider implications for progress on nuclear non-proliferation under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), as well as the wider international security treaty regime.

Will this increase the nuclear threat or the likelihood of nuclear use?

New START provides both the US and Russia with a degree of transparency surrounding nuclear weapons systems. Without an avenue for regular data exchange and notification, and mechanisms for verification through mutual nuclear weapons site inspections, the risk of misperception or misunderstanding could increase and fuel uncertainty which could increases the perception of threat between Russia and the US.

What are Putin’s reasons for suspending Russia’s participation?

Putin and various members of his government have been linking the future of New START to the war in Ukraine rhetorically for several months now, threatening that Russia may not be willing to negotiate a follow-on treaty for when New START expires in Feb 2026 because of US support for Ukraine.

By announcing Russia’s suspension of the treaty in his main address on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin is sending a signal about Russia’s intent for the future.

Russia’s new hypersonic glide vehicle Avangard was already counted under New START and it is likely follow-on negotiations would have focused on some of Russia’s other hypersonic capabilities or other new nuclear systems.

Without the treaty, Russia might be less inhibited in its development of new nuclear systems.

Have both the US and Russia been compliant with the treaty until now?

Both the US and Russia have remained within the central limits of the treaty since its entry into force in 2011. Following the outbreak of COVID-19, both sides agreed to suspend in-person inspections due to restrictions on travel, and attempts to recommence in-person inspections in 2022 were unsuccessful.

In August 2022, Russia prevented US on-site inspections under New START and a November 2022 meeting of the BCC was called off by Russian officials. Russia has blamed both the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the sanctions burden on Russia as reasons for not wanting to resume inspections.

SVB collapse shows interest rate financial stability threat Expert comment LJefferson 15 March 2023

Governments must resist pressure to relax post-financial crisis regulation, while central banks should moderate their attack on inflation if financial stability is at risk.

The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March has triggered a wave of volatility in global bank equity prices, raised questions about whether US bank regulation and its tech industry funding model are fit for purpose, and forced a rethink on the extent and pace of monetary policy tightening appropriate for the US and other advanced economies.

SVB was the US’s 16th largest bank with total assets of $212bn at the end of 2022 and a presence in eight countries around the world, including the UK. Since it was founded 40 years ago, it has maintained a strong focus on the technology sector, claiming recently that nearly half of all US venture-backed technology and life science companies banked with it. Partly as a consequence, some 95 per cent of its deposits came from corporates and hedge funds, far higher than the one-third typical of similarly sized banks.

What led to SVB’s collapse?

Ironically, SVB’s failure did not result from its core business model of serving a relatively high-risk and fast-growing sector, but rather from a dramatic failure in liquidity management. During the pandemic, SVB saw a very large inflow of corporate deposits. But rather than disincentivizing depositors or investing the funds attracted in assets of matching maturity, it chose to invest them in low credit risk, but long maturity bonds attracted by a small pick-up in return over shorter-term assets. 

When US interest rates began to rise rapidly in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the value of SVB’s long-term bond portfolio declined sharply. It was left facing a large capital loss of some $15bn, roughly equivalent to its total shareholder funds. The management attempted to repair SVB’s balance sheet last week by crystalizing some of the loss and raising new capital.

But when this failed, the US supervisory authorities had no choice but to step in and close the institution.  This action was quickly followed by emergency action from other regulators vis-a-vis SVB subsidiaries and offices around the world.

The US entity has formally been taken over by the FDIC and a bridge bank established. All depositors have had their funds guaranteed, going beyond the normal federal deposit insurance limit of $250,000 per customer. However, bond holders and equity holders have been wiped out. The authorities have said that any loss will be covered by the industry as a whole via the FDIC.

In the UK, the Bank of England was able to sell the ring-fenced UK subsidiary of SVB to HSBC for £1 over the weekend, so that all its depositors and other liability holders have effectively had their funds guaranteed. In contrast to previous Bank of England rescues (such as Johnson Matthey Bank in 1984, the ‘small banks’ crisis in 1991 and the global financial crisis in 2008-9) no public money has been put at risk.

Four key questions

SVB’s rapid collapse raises four central questions:

First, how was it that the bank was able to take on such a risky interest rate maturity mismatch in its US operations? Maturity transformation is standard banking industry practice, but it is usually closely monitored by regulators who place limits on the extent of interest rate maturity mismatch and require liquidity buffers to offset the risk of deposit flight and forced asset sales.

SVB’s very high concentration of corporate deposits as compared to ‘sticky’ retail deposits, means that the risk of deposit flight was unusually high and so the bank should have been more, not less, cautious in its liquidity policy. SVB was classed as a regional bank in the US which means that it did not have to meet international regulatory standards under Basle III. And in 2018, the Trump administration approved legislation removing the post-financial crisis requirement that banks with assets under $250bn submit to stress testing and relaxing liquidity buffer requirements.

But it is still hard to understand why regulators allowed SVB to commit such a classic banking error. On Monday, the Federal Reserve ordered an inquiry into what it has correctly described as a regulatory failure. This should look at the role played by all the elements of the oversight system including the auditors, KPMG.

Second, does SVB’s failure reflect a much bigger underlying risk in the US banking sector, and potentially other banking systems around the world, built up over the prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates? SVB’s collapse was followed by the failure of the $110bn Signature Bank in New York, as well as sharp falls in US regional bank stock prices – by close of play on 14 March, the S&P Regional Bank Index was down 22 per cent on a week before, with some individual bank stocks seeing much sharper falls.  

To the extent that banks have been covered by international bank regulatory requirements, the risk of a much broader problem should be limited because stress testing and other regulatory tests would have looked at precisely the scenario that has happened. Even where large market losses have been incurred, capital buffers should be sufficient to cover them. But as SVB has shown, there are some large banks that are seemingly not required to follow international rules, while the latest developments at Credit Suisse indicate that market concerns may still arise when other factors are in play.

Third, how far, in the light of the potential vulnerability in banking systems, should central banks in advanced countries moderate their efforts to squeeze out inflationary pressures? While inflation already appears to have peaked in many economies and the pace of interest rate rises was expected to slow, inflation is far from vanquished, as recent data in the US has demonstrated.

Fourth, does the failure of SVB tell us something new about the financial risks facing the high technology sector?  It was remarkable that a single (and not particularly large, by international standards) financial institution could have played such a central role in the tech sector in both the US and UK. 

Why was this the case and does it reflect special features of the tech/start-up sector (e.g. the need for substantial cash deposits to cover relatively large negative cash flows in the early years of operation, or the need for highly specialized lending expertise). If so, should governments take steps to mitigate such risks, given the outsized importance of this sector in many national economic strategies? 

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Will the next US president invest in Middle East stability or walk away? Expert comment LToremark 17 October 2024

Harris and Trump look set to continue US deprioritization of the region, but they would do better to enlist the support of their partners.

When stability in the Middle East feels so distant, it is much to the dismay of America’s partners that conflict management in the region has fallen down the list of US priorities. As Israel’s war in Gaza has reached its tragic one-year milestone, a new front has opened in Lebanon and further direct escalation between Israel and Iran seems imminent, it is hoped that the next US president will take a bolder role.

Namely, leaders in the UK, Europe and the Middle East are looking to whoever is in the White House to do more to restrain Israel, deliver self-determination – if not a peace process – for Palestine, and contain Iran’s interventionist regional role and nuclear programme.

While it is naive to expect either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to prioritize conflict management in the Middle East above immigration, the economy, the war in Ukraine or competition with China, the past year has shown the danger of ignoring or sidestepping cascading and glaring regional challenges. 

For Harris or Trump to have a more sustainable impact in the region, they must enlist the support of European, British and Middle Eastern partners and work collectively to build multilateral processes that can set a stronger foundation for regional stability.

Repercussions of deprioritization

The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, led many to believe that a new era of integration was possible in the Middle East. To some, it also vindicated the US decision to deprioritize the region that had started with Barack Obama’s presidency and his drawing down from ‘forever wars’ in Iraq and Afghanistan. Presidents Trump and Biden continued that approach, encouraging America’s partners in the Middle East to assume greater responsibility for regional stability. Notably, neither renewed negotiations with Iran despite both committing to deliver a stronger deal with Tehran.

The shock of the 7 October attacks shattered that view, and the longer overhang of the US decision to deprioritize the region has visibly played out over the past twelve months. 

While the Biden administration marshalled full political and military support for Israel and there is not – yet – a direct regional war with Iran, the US has been unsuccessful in multiple areas: delivering a ceasefire agreement, securing the release of hostages, maintaining regular humanitarian relief and producing a so-called ‘day after’ plan of action.  

Moreover, the US temporary arrangement with Iran to prevent nuclear acceleration in exchange for marginal sanctions relief has also shown the limits of compartmentalization when managing a portfolio of issues with Tehran.  

No new approach

Trump and Harris’s policy approaches to conflict in the region further show their limited intent to change course on the Middle East. Both leaders are aware that Middle East politics, particularly on Israel–Palestine and Iran – the key issues requiring urgent attention – has become a US partisan minefield that could alienate voters. Despite their different plans, with Trump inclined to be more unilateral, they will both continue the trend of gradually deprioritizing conflict management in favour of greater burden sharing by those in the region.  

President Trump has promised a tougher approach aimed at curtailing conflict and advancing US interests. On Iran, Trump has made clear that he would return to a policy of maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic, perhaps to come to new agreement with Tehran or alternatively to constrain Iran even further.  He has championed his administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Trump has argued that this approach put economic strain on Iran and reduced its ability to fund proxy groups. 

His advisers have also indicated that they would extend this pressure campaign and provide maximum support to the Iranian opposition and activists. Yet without clear goals or a willingness to negotiate with Tehran to contain further nuclear advancements, the result may well be another round of instability.  

Should he return to office, Trump has indicated that he would immediately put an end to the war in Gaza, though how remains unclear. More broadly, he would likely double down on the agreements to promote Israeli–Saudi normalization and attempt to bypass the Palestinian leadership, focusing on broader regional normalization. But sidestepping Palestinian self-determination, which since 7 October has been the condition for broader Arab normalization, will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to sell to its broader, now politicized, public.  

Many Middle East leaders, including those from the Arabian peninsula, might welcome the return of a Trump presidency, but Trump’s ‘America First’ policy did not provide Arab Gulf leaders, especially Riyadh, with protection from Iran’s attack on Saudi oil facilities seen in September 2019.  

Trump also promised without success to deliver a bigger, better Iran deal that would extend the JCPOA and include compromises on Tehran’s support for proxy groups and constraints on its missile programme. Rather than imposing his previous strategy, a second Trump presidency would be more effective if it worked collaboratively with transatlantic and regional partners on regional security issues pertaining to Israel–Palestine and Iran.  

Continuation and reinforcement?

Despite her recent tough talk on Iran, it is expected that Harris will reinforce the current wave of diplomatic efforts to deescalate and manage tensions with Tehran, rather than advocate for ‘maximum pressure’.  

Harris would likely build on efforts to revive a new paradigm that could contain Iran’s nuclear programme. She is expected to emphasize a strategy of engagement combined with pressure to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while addressing its regional activities.   

Now that Iran has provided missiles and drones to Russia, it is clear that Tehran’s transfer of lethal aid needs an urgent response beyond continued reliance on sanctions. Harris’s team would be wise to pursue a multilateral negotiation process bringing together Europe and the UK, who are already discussing these issues, to collectively engage Tehran on a broader deal.

Moreover, winning support from Israel and the Gulf is a necessary condition to build a more sustainable Iranian agreement. 

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