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Visceral Fat Adipokine Secretion Is Associated With Systemic Inflammation in Obese Humans

Luigi Fontana
Apr 1, 2007; 56:1010-1013
Metabolism




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Changes in Gut Microbiota Control Metabolic Endotoxemia-Induced Inflammation in High-Fat Diet-Induced Obesity and Diabetes in Mice

Patrice D. Cani
Jun 1, 2008; 57:1470-1481
Metabolism




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Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and the Development of Type 2 Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Bruce B. Duncan
Jul 1, 2003; 52:1799-1805
Pathophysiology




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The Security Council's peacekeeping trilemma

4 March 2020 , Volume 96, Number 2

Paul D. Williams

The United Nations (UN) Security Council is stuck in a peacekeeping trilemma. This is a situation where the Council's three strategic goals for peacekeeping operations—implementing broad mandates, minimizing peacekeeper casualties and maximizing cost-effectiveness—cannot be achieved simultaneously. This trilemma stems from longstanding competing pressures on how the Council designs UN peacekeeping operations as well as political divisions between peacekeeping's three key groups of stakeholders: the states that authorize peacekeeping mandates, those that provide most of the personnel and field capabilities, and those that pay the majority of the bill. Fortunately, the most negative consequences of the trilemma can be mitigated and perhaps even transcended altogether. Mitigation would require the Council to champion and implement four main reforms: improving peacekeeper performance, holding peacekeepers accountable for misdeeds, adopting prioritized and sequenced mandates, and strengthening the financial basis for UN peacekeeping. Transcending the trilemma would require a more fundamental reconfiguration of the key stakeholder groups in order to create much greater unity of effort behind a re-envisaged peacekeeping enterprise. This is highly unlikely in the current international political context.




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The Morass of Central American Migration: Dynamics, Dilemmas and Policy Alternatives

Invitation Only Research Event

22 November 2019 - 8:15am to 9:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Anita Isaacs, Professor of Political Science, Haverford College; Co-Director, Migration Encounters Project
Juan Ricardo Ortega, Principal Advisor for Central America, Inter-American Development Bank
Chair: Amy Pope, Associate Fellow, Chatham House; US Deputy Homeland Security Adviser for the Obama Administration (2015-17)

2019 has seen a record number of people migrating from Central America’s Northern Triangle – an area that covers El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Estimates from June 2019 have placed the number of migrants at nearly double of what they were in 2018 with the increase in numbers stemming from a lack of economic opportunity combined with a rise in crime and insecurity in the region. The impacts of migration can already be felt within the affected states as the exodus has played a significant role in weakening labour markets and contributing to a ‘brain drain’ in the region. It has also played an increasingly active role in the upcoming US presidential election with some calling for more security on the border to curb immigration while others argue that a more effective strategy is needed to address the sources of migration. 

What are the core causes of Central American migration and how have the US, Central American and now also Mexican governments facilitated and deterred migration from the region? Can institutions be strengthened to alleviate the causes of migration? And what possible policy alternatives and solutions are there that could alleviate the pressures individuals and communities feel to migrate?   

Anita Isaacs, professor of Political Science at Haverford College and co-director of the Migration Encounters Project, and Juan Ricard Ortega, principal advisor for Central America at the Inter-American Development Bank, will join us for a discussion on the core drivers of migration within and across Central America.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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Myeloid HMG-CoA Reductase Determines Adipose Tissue Inflammation, Insulin Resistance, and Hepatic Steatosis in Diet-Induced Obese Mice

Adipose tissue macrophages (ATMs) are involved in the development of insulin resistance in obesity. We have recently shown that myeloid cell–specific reduction of HMG-CoA reductase (Hmgcrm–/m–), which is the rate-limiting enzyme in cholesterol biosynthesis, protects against atherosclerosis by inhibiting macrophage migration in mice. We hypothesized that ATMs are harder to accumulate in Hmgcrm–/m– mice than in control Hmgcrfl/fl mice in the setting of obesity. To test this hypothesis, we fed Hmgcrm–/m– and Hmgcrfl/fl mice a high-fat diet (HFD) for 24 weeks and compared plasma glucose metabolism as well as insulin signaling and histology between the two groups. Myeloid cell–specific reduction of Hmgcr improved glucose tolerance and insulin sensitivity without altering body weight in the HFD-induced obese mice. The improvement was due to a decrease in the number of ATMs. The ATMs were reduced by decreased recruitment of macrophages as a result of their impaired chemotactic activity. These changes were associated with decreased expression of proinflammatory cytokines in adipose tissues. Myeloid cell–specific reduction of Hmgcr also attenuated hepatic steatosis. In conclusion, reducing myeloid HMGCR may be a promising strategy to improve insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis in obesity.




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Rare inflammatory condition affects some children with COVID-19

Dozens of United States children have been hospitalised with a serious inflammatory condition possibly linked with the coronavirus and first seen in Europe. New York authorities announced Wednesday that 64 potential cases had been reported to...




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Inflammatory Cytokines and the Risk to Develop Type 2 Diabetes: Results of the Prospective Population-Based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam Study

Joachim Spranger
Mar 1, 2003; 52:812-817
Pathophysiology




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PPAR{gamma} Ligands Increase Expression and Plasma Concentrations of Adiponectin, an Adipose-Derived Protein

Norikazu Maeda
Sep 1, 2001; 50:2094-2099
Pathophysiology




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PPAR-gamma: adipogenic regulator and thiazolidinedione receptor

BM Spiegelman
Apr 1, 1998; 47:507-514
Articles




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Changes in Gut Microbiota Control Metabolic Endotoxemia-Induced Inflammation in High-Fat Diet-Induced Obesity and Diabetes in Mice

Patrice D. Cani
Jun 1, 2008; 57:1470-1481
Metabolism




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TSPO Versus P2X7 as a Target for Neuroinflammation: An In Vitro and In Vivo Study

Neuroinflammation is important in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The P2X7 receptor (P2X7R) is a promising target for neuroinflammation. The objective of this study was to compare 18F-DPA714, a second-generation translocator protein tracer, with 11C-JNJ717, a novel P2X7R tracer, in vitro and in vivo in ALS. Methods: For the in vitro portion of the study, autoradiography with 18F-DPA714 and 11C-JNJ717 was performed on human ALS brain sections in comparison to immunofluorescence with Iba1 and GFAP. For the in vivo portion, 3 male patients with early-stage ALS (59.3 ± 7.2 y old) and 6 healthy volunteers (48.2 ± 16.5 y old, 2 men and 4 women) underwent dynamic PET/MR scanning with 18F-DPA714 and 11C-JNJ717. Volume-of-distribution images were calculated using Logan plots and analyzed on a volume-of-interest basis. Results: Autoradiography showed no difference in 11C-JNJ717 binding but did show increased 18F-DPA714 binding in the motor cortex correlating with Iba1 expression (glial cells). Similar findings were observed in vivo, with a 13% increase in 18F-DPA714 binding in the motor cortex. Conclusion: In symptomatic ALS patients, 18F-DPA714 showed increased signal whereas 11C-JNJ717 was not elevated.




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Multimodality Imaging of Inflammation and Ventricular Remodeling in Pressure-Overload Heart Failure

Inflammation contributes to ventricular remodeling after myocardial ischemia, but its role in nonischemic heart failure is poorly understood. Local tissue inflammation is difficult to assess serially during pathogenesis. Although 18F-FDG accumulates in inflammatory leukocytes and thus may identify inflammation in the myocardial microenvironment, it remains unclear whether this imaging technique can isolate diffuse leukocytes in pressure-overload heart failure. We aimed to evaluate whether inflammation with 18F-FDG can be serially imaged in the early stages of pressure-overload–induced heart failure and to compare the time course with functional impairment assessed by cardiac MRI. Methods: C57Bl6/N mice underwent transverse aortic constriction (TAC) (n = 22), sham surgery (n = 12), or coronary ligation as an inflammation-positive control (n = 5). MRI assessed ventricular geometry and contractile function at 2 and 8 d after TAC. Immunostaining identified the extent of inflammatory leukocyte infiltration early in pressure overload. 18F-FDG PET scans were acquired at 3 and 7 d after TAC, under ketamine-xylazine anesthesia to suppress cardiomyocyte glucose uptake. Results: Pressure overload evoked rapid left ventricular dilation compared with sham (end-systolic volume, day 2: 40.6 ± 10.2 μL vs. 23.8 ± 1.7 μL, P < 0.001). Contractile function was similarly impaired (ejection fraction, day 2: 40.9% ± 9.7% vs. 59.2% ± 4.4%, P < 0.001). The severity of contractile impairment was proportional to histology-defined myocardial macrophage density on day 8 (r = –0.669, P = 0.010). PET imaging identified significantly higher left ventricular 18F-FDG accumulation in TAC mice than in sham mice on day 3 (10.5 ± 4.1 percentage injected dose [%ID]/g vs. 3.8 ± 0.9 %ID/g, P < 0.001) and on day 7 (7.8 ± 3.7 %ID/g vs. 3.0 ± 0.8 %ID/g, P = 0.006), though the efficiency of cardiomyocyte suppression was variable among TAC mice. The 18F-FDG signal correlated with ejection fraction (r = –0.75, P = 0.01) and ventricular volume (r = 0.75, P < 0.01). Western immunoblotting demonstrated a 60% elevation of myocardial glucose transporter 4 expression in the left ventricle at 8 d after TAC, indicating altered glucose metabolism. Conclusion: TAC induces rapid changes in left ventricular geometry and contractile function, with a parallel modest infiltration of inflammatory macrophages. Metabolic remodeling overshadows inflammatory leukocyte signal using 18F-FDG PET imaging. More selective inflammatory tracers are requisite to identify the diffuse local inflammation in pressure overload.




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The First 100 Days: Summary of Major Immigration Actions Taken by the Trump Administration

During his first 100 days in office, President Trump has taken a sweeping set of actions on immigration, ranging from imposing a travel ban to cutting refugee admissions, "extreme" vetting, and fortifying immigration enforcement at the border and in the U.S. interior. This fact sheet examines the major immigration actions taken to date, legal challenges, and related policy and personnel developments.




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Glucosamine Use, Inflammation, and Genetic Susceptibility, and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Study in UK Biobank

OBJECTIVE

Glucosamine is a widely used supplement typically taken for osteoarthritis and joint pain. Emerging evidence suggests potential links of glucosamine with glucose metabolism, inflammation, and cardiometabolic risk. We prospectively analyzed the association of habitual glucosamine use with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and assessed whether genetic susceptibility and inflammation status might modify the association.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study analyzed 404,508 participants from the UK Biobank who were free of diabetes, cancer, or cardiovascular disease at baseline and completed the questionnaire on supplement use. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between habitual use of glucosamine and risk of incident T2D.

RESULTS

During a median of 8.1 years of follow-up, 7,228 incident cases of T2D were documented. Glucosamine use was associated with a significantly lower risk of T2D (hazard ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.78–0.89) after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, race, center, Townsend deprivation index, lifestyle factors, history of disease, and other supplement use. This inverse association was more pronounced in participants with a higher blood level of baseline C-reactive protein than in those with a lower level of this inflammation marker (P-interaction = 0.02). A genetic risk score for T2D did not modify this association (P-interaction = 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that glucosamine use is associated with a lower risk of incident T2D.




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Lipid and Inflammatory Cardiovascular Risk Worsens Over 3 Years in Youth With Type 2 Diabetes: The TODAY clinical trial

TODAY Study Group
Jun 1, 2013; 36:1758-1764
TODAY Study




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India police: Security forces kill top militant commander in Kashmir

Police in India said security forces killed a top Hizbul Mujahideen commander amid a series of gunfights in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region on Wednesday.




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Northrop Grumman awarded $123.5M to integrate Navy LAIRCM system

Northrop Grumman received a $123.5 million contract modification Friday to integrate the Department of Navy Large Aircraft Infrared Countermeasures system onto aircraft for the U.S. military and two allied governments.




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Northrop Grumman, Raytheon partner for Next Generation Interceptor bid

Northrop Grumman Corp. and Raytheon Missiles and Defense will partner to develop the Defense Department's next missile interceptor, they announced on Monday.




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New compendium summarizes best practices in oral health service delivery

Titled “Compendium of Innovations in Oral Health Service Delivery,” the 64-page digital booklet features organizations from across the country that have found success through varied measures in expanding oral care to underserved populations.




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Dietary Manganese, Plasma Markers of Inflammation, and the Development of Type 2 Diabetes in Postmenopausal Women: Findings From the Womens Health Initiative

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between manganese intake and the risk of type 2 diabetes in postmenopausal women and determine whether this association is mediated by circulating markers of inflammation.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 84,285 postmenopausal women without a history of diabetes from the national Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI-OS). Replication analysis was then conducted among 62,338 women who participated in the WHI-Clinical Trial (WHI-CT). Additionally, data from a case-control study of 3,749 women nested in the WHI-OS with information on biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction were examined using mediation analysis to determine the relative contributions of these known biomarkers by which manganese affects type 2 diabetes risk.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest quintile of energy-adjusted dietary manganese, WHI-OS participants in the highest quintile had a 30% lower risk of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70 [95% CI 0.65, 0.76]). A consistent association was also confirmed in the WHI-CT (HR 0.79 [95% CI 0.73, 0.85]). In the nested case-control study, higher energy-adjusted dietary manganese was associated with lower circulating levels of inflammatory biomarkers that significantly mediated the association between dietary manganese and type 2 diabetes risk. Specifically, 19% and 12% of type 2 diabetes risk due to manganese were mediated through interleukin 6 and hs-CRP, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of manganese was directly associated with a lower type 2 diabetes risk independent of known risk factors. This association may be partially mediated by inflammatory biomarkers.




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The Multicultural Dilemma: Amid Rising Diversity and Unsettled Equity Issues, New Zealand Seeks to Address Its Past and Present

New Zealand drew global attention for its unity and support for the Muslim community targeted during the horrific Christchurch attacks. Yet the country's road to inclusion has been far from straightforward, and amid rising diversity it is grappling with the best way to achieve inclusion for its multiethnic population, including indigenous Māori peoples and migrants. This article outlines the opportunities and challenges to fostering multiculturalism against a backdrop of bicultural policies.




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The Innovation Dilemma

"If it ain't broken, don't fix it."Sound advice, but limited to situations where "fixing it" only entails restoring past performance. In contrast, innovations entail substantive improvements over the past. Innovations are not just corrections of past mistakes, but progress towards a better future.

However, innovations often present a challenging dilemma to decision makers. Many decisions require choosing between options, one of which is both potentially better in the outcome but markedly more uncertain. In these situations the decision maker faces an "innovation dilemma."

The innovation dilemma arises in many contexts. Here are a few examples.

Technology. New and innovative technologies are often advocated because of their purported improvements on existing products or methods. However, what is new is usually less well-known and less widely tested than what is old. The range of possible adverse (or favorable) surprises of an innovative technology may exceed the range of surprise for a tried-and-true technology. The analyst who must choose between innovation and convention faces an innovation dilemma.

Investment. The economic investor faces an innovation dilemma when choosing between investing in a promising but unknown new start-up and investing in a well-known existing firm.

Auction. "Nothing ventured, nothing gained" is the motto of the risk-taker, while the risk-avoider responds: "Nothing ventured, nothing lost". The innovation dilemma is embedded in the choice between these two strategies. Consider for example the "winner's curse" in auction theory. You can make a financial bid for a valuable piece of property, which will be sold to the highest bidder. You have limited information about the other bidders and about the true value of the property. If you bid high you might win the auction but you might also pay more than the property is worth. Not bidding is risk-free because it avoids the purchase. The choice between a high bid and no bid is an innovation dilemma.

Employer decision. An employer must decide whether or not to replace a current satisfactory employee with a new candidate whose score on a standardized test was high. A high score reflects great ability. However, the score also contains a random element, so a high score may result from chance, and not reflect true ability. The innovation dilemma is embedded in the employer's choice between the current adequate employee and a high-scoring new candidate.

Natural resource exploitation. Permitting the extraction of offshore petroleum resources may be productive in terms of petroleum yield but may also present officials with significant uncertainty about environmental consequences.

Public health. Implementation of a large-scale immunization program may present policy officials with worries about uncertain side effects.

Agricultural policy. New technologies promise improved production efficiency or new consumer choices, but with uncertain benefits and costs and potential unanticipated adverse effects resulting from use of manufactured inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and machinery, and, more recently, genetically engineered seed varieties and information technology. (I am indebted to L. Joe Moffitt and Craig Osteen for these examples in natural resources, public health and agriculture.)

An essay like this one should - according to custom - end with a practical prescription: What to do about the innovation dilemma? You need to make a decision - a choice between options - and you face an innovation dilemma. How to choose? All I'll say is that the first step is to identify what you need to achieve from this decision. Recognizing the vast uncertainties which accompany the decision, choose the option which achieves the required outcome over the largest range of uncertain contingencies.

If you want more of an answer than that, consult your favorite decision theory (like info-gap theory, for instance).

I will conclude by drawing a parallel between the innovation dilemma and one of the oldest quandaries in political philosophy. In The Evolution of Political Thought C. Northcote Parkinson explains the historically recurring tension between freedom and equality.

Freedom. People have widely varying interests and aptitudes. Hence a society that offers broad freedom for individuals to exploit their abilities, will also develop a wide spread of wealth, accomplishment, and status. Freedom enables individuals to explore, invent, discover, and create. Freedom is the recipe for innovation. Freedom induces both uncertainty and inequality.

Equality. People have widely varying interests and aptitudes. Hence a society that strives for equality among its members can achieve this by enforcing conformity and by transferring wealth from rich to poor. The promise of a measure of equality is a guarantee of a measure of security, a personal and social safety net. Equality reduces both uncertainty and freedom.

The dilemma is that a life without freedom is hardly human, but freedom without security is the jungle. And life in the jungle, as Hobbs explained, in "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short".




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Squirrels and Stock Brokers, Or: Innovation Dilemmas, Robustness and Probability

Decisions are made in order to achieve desirable outcomes. An innovation dilemma arises when a seemingly more attractive option is also more uncertain than other options. In this essay we explore the relation between the innovation dilemma and the robustness of a decision, and the relation between robustness and probability. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes despite adverse surprises. A robust decision may differ from the seemingly best option. Furthermore, robust decisions are not based on knowledge of probabilities, but can still be the most likely to succeed.

Squirrels, Stock-Brokers and Their Dilemmas




Decision problems.
Imagine a squirrel nibbling acorns under an oak tree. They're pretty good acorns, though a bit dry. The good ones have already been taken. Over in the distance is a large stand of fine oaks. The acorns there are probably better. But then, other squirrels can also see those trees, and predators can too. The squirrel doesn't need to get fat, but a critical caloric intake is necessary before moving on to other activities. How long should the squirrel forage at this patch before moving to the more promising patch, if at all?

Imagine a hedge fund manager investing in South African diamonds, Australian Uranium, Norwegian Kroners and Singapore semi-conductors. The returns have been steady and good, but not very exciting. A new hi-tech start-up venture has just turned up. It looks promising, has solid backing, and could be very interesting. The manager doesn't need to earn boundless returns, but it is necessary to earn at least a tad more than the competition (who are also prowling around). How long should the manager hold the current portfolio before changing at least some of its components?

These are decision problems, and like many other examples, they share three traits: critical needs must be met; the current situation may or may not be adequate; other alternatives look much better but are much more uncertain. To change, or not to change? What strategy to use in making a decision? What choice is the best bet? Betting is a surprising concept, as we have seen before; can we bet without knowing probabilities?

Solution strategies.
The decision is easy in either of two extreme situations, and their analysis will reveal general conclusions.

One extreme is that the status quo is clearly insufficient. For the squirrel this means that these crinkled rotten acorns won't fill anybody's belly even if one nibbled here all day long. Survival requires trying the other patch regardless of the fact that there may be many other squirrels already there and predators just waiting to swoop down. Similarly, for the hedge fund manager, if other funds are making fantastic profits, then something has to change or the competition will attract all the business.

The other extreme is that the status quo is just fine, thank you. For the squirrel, just a little more nibbling and these acorns will get us through the night, so why run over to unfamiliar oak trees? For the hedge fund manager, profits are better than those of any credible competitor, so uncertain change is not called for.

From these two extremes we draw an important general conclusion: the right answer depends on what you need. To change, or not to change, depends on what is critical for survival. There is no universal answer, like, "Always try to improve" or "If it's working, don't fix it". This is a very general property of decisions under uncertainty, and we will call it preference reversal. The agent's preference between alternatives depends on what the agent needs in order to "survive".

The decision strategy that we have described is attuned to the needs of the agent. The strategy attempts to satisfy the agent's critical requirements. If the status quo would reliably do that, then stay put; if not, then move. Following the work of Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon, we will call this a satisficing decision strategy: one which satisfies a critical requirement.

"Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future." - Robert Storm Petersen

Now let's consider a different decision strategy that squirrels and hedge fund managers might be tempted to use. The agent has obtained information about the two alternatives by signals from the environment. (The squirrel sees grand verdant oaks in the distance, the fund manager hears of a new start up.) Given this information, a prediction can be made (though the squirrel may make this prediction based on instincts and without being aware of making it). Given the best available information, the agent predicts which alternative would yield the better outcome. Using this prediction, the decision strategy is to choose the alternative whose predicted outcome is best. We will call this decision strategy best-model optimization. Note that this decision strategy yields a single universal answer to the question facing the agent. This strategy uses the best information to find the choice that - if that information is correct - will yield the best outcome. Best-model optimization (usually) gives a single "best" decision, unlike the satisficing strategy that returns different answers depending on the agent's needs.

There is an attractive logic - and even perhaps a moral imperative - to use the best information to make the best choice. One should always try to do one's best. But the catch in the argument for best-model optimization is that the best information may actually be grievously wrong. Those fine oak trees might be swarming with insects who've devoured the acorns. Best-model optimization ignores the agent's central dilemma: stay with the relatively well known but modest alternative, or go for the more promising but more uncertain alternative.

"Tsk, tsk, tsk" says our hedge fund manager. "My information already accounts for the uncertainty. I have used a probabilistic asset pricing model to predict the likelihood that my profits will beat the competition for each of the two alternatives."

Probabilistic asset pricing models are good to have. And the squirrel similarly has evolved instincts that reflect likelihoods. But a best-probabilistic-model optimization is simply one type of best-model optimization, and is subject to the same vulnerability to error. The world is full of surprises. The probability functions that are used are quite likely wrong, especially in predicting the rare events that the manager is most concerned to avoid.

Robustness and Probability

Now we come to the truly amazing part of the story. The satisficing strategy does not use any probabilistic information. Nonetheless, in many situations, the satisficing strategy is actually a better bet (or at least not a worse bet), probabilistically speaking, than any other strategy, including best-probabilistic-model optimization. We have no probabilistic information in these situations, but we can still maximize the probability of success (though we won't know the value of this maximum).

When the satisficing decision strategy is the best bet, this is, in part, because it is more robust to uncertainty than another other strategy. A decision is robust to uncertainty if it achieves required outcomes even if adverse surprises occur. In many important situations (though not invariably), more robustness to uncertainty is equivalent to being more likely to succeed or survive. When this is true we say that robustness is a proxy for probability.

A thorough analysis of the proxy property is rather technical. However, we can understand the gist of the idea by considering a simple special case.

Let's continue with the squirrel and hedge fund examples. Suppose we are completely confident about the future value (in calories or dollars) of not making any change (staying put). In contrast, the future value of moving is apparently better though uncertain. If staying put would satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of survival if we do not change. Staying put is completely robust to surprises so the probability of success equals 1 if we stay put, regardless of what happens with the other option. Likewise, if staying put would not satisfy our critical requirement, then we are absolutely certain of failure if we do not change; the probability of success equals 0 if we stay, and moving cannot be worse. Regardless of what probability distribution describes future outcomes if we move, we can always choose the option whose likelihood of success is greater (or at least not worse). This is because staying put is either sure to succeed or sure to fail, and we know which.

This argument can be extended to the more realistic case where the outcome of staying put is uncertain and the outcome of moving, while seemingly better than staying, is much more uncertain. The agent can know which option is more robust to uncertainty, without having to know probability distributions. This implies, in many situations, that the agent can choose the option that is a better bet for survival.

Wrapping Up

The skillful decision maker not only knows a lot, but is also able to deal with conflicting information. We have discussed the innovation dilemma: When choosing between two alternatives, the seemingly better one is also more uncertain.

Animals, people, organizations and societies have developed mechanisms for dealing with the innovation dilemma. The response hinges on tuning the decision to the agent's needs, and robustifying the choice against uncertainty. This choice may or may not coincide with the putative best choice. But what seems best depends on the available - though uncertain - information.

The commendable tendency to do one's best - and to demand the same of others - can lead to putatively optimal decisions that may be more vulnerable to surprise than other decisions that would have been satisfactory. In contrast, the strategy of robustly satisfying critical needs can be a better bet for survival. Consider the design of critical infrastructure: flood protection, nuclear power, communication networks, and so on. The design of such systems is based on vast knowledge and understanding, but also confronts bewildering uncertainties and endless surprises. We must continue to improve our knowledge and understanding, while also improving our ability to manage the uncertainties resulting from the expanding horizon of our efforts. We must identify the critical goals and seek responses that are immune to surprise. 




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Spot the ethical solutions in estate administration dilemmas : part 1 / presented by Pam McEwin, Treloar & Treloar.




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Spot the ethical solutions in estate administration dilemmas : part 2 / presented by Pam McEwin, Treloar & Treloar.




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Basin salinity management 2030 : summary report 2017-18.




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This is love / ?Emma /catchpole.




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Ratings summary - labour market analysis of skilled occupations / Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business.




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Interim technical report : project 3.1 : lower cost, more effective 3D seismic exploration for hard rock environments : seismic exploration for mineral deposits case study summary table / authors: Milovan Urosevic, Andrej Bona.

"This document is intended to summarise the current state, understanding and the use of seismic reflection method for mineral exploration. Its primary objective is to provide a point of reference, based on actual case studies, for mineral explorers interested in the application of seismic methods to their project. It provides summary information (including the purpose of the survey, acquisition methods, geometry and cost, processing procedures and key findings) that are intended to provide the reader with an objective means of assessing the cost effectiveness of the technique with respect to exploration objectives. It is also aimed at exchange of information between DETCRC sponsors, affiliates and researchers. Finally we hope that this table will help in shaping future research efforts and direction within Project 3.1, regarding the application of seismic for mineral exploration.This is only initial work and it is hoped that it will evolve into a document or a catalogue that will be extensively used by the mineral industry to achieve their exploration objectives in more efficient and effective way" -- Executive summary.




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Who says you're dead? : medical & ethical dilemmas for the curious & concerned / Jacob M. Appel, MD.

Medical ethics.




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Wheat syndromes : how wheat, gluten and ATI cause inflammation, IBS and autoimmune diseases / Detlef Schuppan, Kristin Gisbert-Schuppan.

Celiac disease.




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Spiral movements of the apex of the exposed mammalian heart.

United Kingdom, c.1939.




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[Phrommachat]

19th century




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[Phrommachat]

19th century




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[Phrommachat]




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[Brah dhammapada]




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Spiral movements of the apex of the exposed mammalian heart.

United Kingdom, c.1939.




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Die Ton- und Stimmapparate der Insecten : in anatomisch-physiologischer und akustischer Beziehung / von H. Landois.

Leipzig : W. Engelmann, 1867.




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Tuberculosis statistics : summary of the report / addressed by Dr. S. Rosenfeld (Vienna) to the Health Committee of the Leage of Nations.

England : League of Nations, 1925.




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Family therapy : a summary of selected literature.

Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, 1980.




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Stein characterizations for linear combinations of gamma random variables

Benjamin Arras, Ehsan Azmoodeh, Guillaume Poly, Yvik Swan.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 394--413.

Abstract:
In this paper we propose a new, simple and explicit mechanism allowing to derive Stein operators for random variables whose characteristic function satisfies a simple ODE. We apply this to study random variables which can be represented as linear combinations of (not necessarily independent) gamma distributed random variables. The connection with Malliavin calculus for random variables in the second Wiener chaos is detailed. An application to McKay Type I random variables is also outlined.




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Application of weighted and unordered majorization orders in comparisons of parallel systems with exponentiated generalized gamma components

Abedin Haidari, Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi, Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 150--166.

Abstract:
Consider two parallel systems, say $A$ and $B$, with respective lifetimes $T_{1}$ and $T_{2}$ wherein independent component lifetimes of each system follow exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with possibly different exponential shape and scale parameters. We show here that $T_{2}$ is smaller than $T_{1}$ with respect to the usual stochastic order (reversed hazard rate order) if the vector of logarithm (the main vector) of scale parameters of System $B$ is weakly weighted majorized by that of System $A$, and if the vector of exponential shape parameters of System $A$ is unordered mojorized by that of System $B$. By means of some examples, we show that the above results can not be extended to the hazard rate and likelihood ratio orders. However, when the scale parameters of each system divide into two homogeneous groups, we verify that the usual stochastic and reversed hazard rate orders can be extended, respectively, to the hazard rate and likelihood ratio orders. The established results complete and strengthen some of the known results in the literature.




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A bimodal gamma distribution: Properties, regression model and applications. (arXiv:2004.12491v2 [stat.ME] UPDATED)

In this paper we propose a bimodal gamma distribution using a quadratic transformation based on the alpha-skew-normal model. We discuss several properties of this distribution such as mean, variance, moments, hazard rate and entropy measures. Further, we propose a new regression model with censored data based on the bimodal gamma distribution. This regression model can be very useful to the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to check the bias in the maximum likelihood estimation. The proposed models are applied to two real data sets found in literature.




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Reference and Document Aware Semantic Evaluation Methods for Korean Language Summarization. (arXiv:2005.03510v1 [cs.CL])

Text summarization refers to the process that generates a shorter form of text from the source document preserving salient information. Recently, many models for text summarization have been proposed. Most of those models were evaluated using recall-oriented understudy for gisting evaluation (ROUGE) scores. However, as ROUGE scores are computed based on n-gram overlap, they do not reflect semantic meaning correspondences between generated and reference summaries. Because Korean is an agglutinative language that combines various morphemes into a word that express several meanings, ROUGE is not suitable for Korean summarization. In this paper, we propose evaluation metrics that reflect semantic meanings of a reference summary and the original document, Reference and Document Aware Semantic Score (RDASS). We then propose a method for improving the correlation of the metrics with human judgment. Evaluation results show that the correlation with human judgment is significantly higher for our evaluation metrics than for ROUGE scores.




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Neuroinflammation and schizophrenia

9783030391416 (electronic bk.)




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Handbook of the mammals of Europe

9783319650388 electronic book




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European whales, dolphins, and porpoises : marine mammal conservation in practice

Evans, Peter G. H., author
9780128190548 electronic book




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Conservation genetics in mammals : integrative research using novel approaches

9783030333348 (electronic bk.)




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Measuring human activity spaces from GPS data with density ranking and summary curves

Yen-Chi Chen, Adrian Dobra.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 409--432.

Abstract:
Activity spaces are fundamental to the assessment of individuals’ dynamic exposure to social and environmental risk factors associated with multiple spatial contexts that are visited during activities of daily living. In this paper we survey existing approaches for measuring the geometry, size and structure of activity spaces, based on GPS data, and explain their limitations. We propose addressing these shortcomings through a nonparametric approach called density ranking and also through three summary curves: the mass-volume curve, the Betti number curve and the persistence curve. We introduce a novel mixture model for human activity spaces and study its asymptotic properties. We prove that the kernel density estimator, which at the present time, is one of the most widespread methods for measuring activity spaces, is not a stable estimator of their structure. We illustrate the practical value of our methods with a simulation study and with a recently collected GPS dataset that comprises the locations visited by 10 individuals over a six months period.