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How did Cosgrove fare in his Premiership predictions?

Larne defender Tomas Cosgrove gives his predictions for this weekend's Irish Premiership games.





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Predicting Innovation: Why Facebook/WhatsApp Merger Flunked

By Hasan Basri Cifci[1] In the world of 2014, the Commission of Facebook/WhatsApp merger case[2] concluded that integration and interoperation of Facebook and WhatsApp were unfeasible. However, Facebook integrated its three subsidiaries (WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook) under its brand in




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E-commerce growth prediction model based on grey Markov chain

In order to solve the problems of long prediction consumption time and many prediction iterations existing in traditional prediction models, an e-commerce growth prediction model based on grey Markov chain is proposed. The Scrapy crawler framework is used to collect a variety of e-commerce data from e-commerce websites, and the feedforward neural network model is used to clean the collected data. With the cleaned e-commerce data as the input vector and the e-commerce growth prediction results as the output vector, an e-commerce growth prediction model based on the grey Markov chain is built. The prediction model is improved by using the background value optimisation method. After training the model through the improved particle swarm optimisation algorithm, accurate e-commerce growth prediction results are obtained. The experimental results show that the maximum time consumption of e-commerce growth prediction of this model is only 0.032, and the number of iterations is small.




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Injury prediction analysis of college basketball players based on FMS scores

It is inevitable for basketball players to have physical injury in sports. Reducing basketball injury is one of the main aims of the study of basketball. In view of this, this paper proposes a monocular vision and FMS injury prediction model for basketball players. Aiming at the limitations of traditional FMS testing methods, this study introduces intelligent machine learning methods. In this study, random forest algorithm was introduced into OpenPose network to improve model node occlusion, missed detection or false detection. In addition, to reduce the computational load of the network, the original OpenPose network was replaced by a lightweight OpenPose network. The experimental results show that the average processing time of the proposed model is about 90 ms, and the output video frame rate is 10 frames per second, which can meet the real-time requirements. This study analysed the students participating in the basketball league of the College of Sports Science of Nantong University, and the results confirmed the accuracy of the injury prediction of college basketball players based on FMS scores. It is hoped that this study can provide some reference for the research of injury prevention of basketball players.




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BEFA: bald eagle firefly algorithm enabled deep recurrent neural network-based food quality prediction using dairy products

Food quality is defined as a collection of properties that differentiate each unit and influences acceptability degree of food by users or consumers. Owing to the nature of food, food quality prediction is highly significant after specific periods of storage or before use by consumers. However, the accuracy is the major problem in the existing methods. Hence, this paper presents a BEFA_DRNN approach for accurate food quality prediction using dairy products. Firstly, input data is fed to data normalisation phase, which is performed by min-max normalisation. Thereafter, normalised data is given to feature fusion phase that is conducted employing DNN with Canberra distance. Then, fused data is subjected to data augmentation stage, which is carried out utilising oversampling technique. Finally, food quality prediction is done wherein milk is graded employing DRNN. The training of DRNN is executed by proposed BEFA that is a combination of BES and FA. Additionally, BEFA_DRNN obtained maximum accuracy, TPR and TNR values of 93.6%, 92.5% and 90.7%.




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Loan delinquency analysis using predictive model

The research uses a machine learning approach to appraising the validity of customer aptness for a loan. Banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFC) face significant non-performing assets (NPAs) threats because of the non-payment of loans. In this study, the data is collected from Kaggle and tested using various machine learning models to determine if the borrower can repay its loan. In addition, we analysed the performance of the models [K-nearest neighbours (K-NN), logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision tree, naive Bayes and neural networks]. The purpose is to support decisions that are based not on subjective aspects but objective data analysis. This work aims to analyse how objective factors influence borrowers to default loans, identify the leading causes contributing to a borrower's default loan. The results show that the decision tree classifier gives the best result, with a recall rate of 0.0885 and a false- negative rate of 5.4%.




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Using Educational Data Mining to Predict Students’ Academic Performance for Applying Early Interventions

Aim/Purpose: One of the main objectives of higher education institutions is to provide a high-quality education to their students and reduce dropout rates. This can be achieved by predicting students’ academic achievement early using Educational Data Mining (EDM). This study aims to predict students’ final grades and identify honorary students at an early stage. Background: EDM research has emerged as an exciting research area, which can unfold valuable knowledge from educational databases for many purposes, such as identifying the dropouts and students who need special attention and discovering honorary students for allocating scholarships. Methodology: In this work, we have collected 300 undergraduate students’ records from three departments of a Computer and Information Science College at a university located in Saudi Arabia. We compared the performance of six data mining methods in predicting academic achievement. Those methods are C4.5, Simple CART, LADTree, Naïve Bayes, Bayes Net with ADTree, and Random Forest. Contribution: We tested the significance of correlation attribute predictors using four different methods. We found 9 out of 18 proposed features with a significant correlation for predicting students’ academic achievement after their 4th semester. Those features are student GPA during the first four semesters, the number of failed courses during the first four semesters, and the grades of three core courses, i.e., database fundamentals, programming language (1), and computer network fundamentals. Findings: The empirical results show the following: (i) the main features that can predict students’ academic achievement are the student GPA during the first four semesters, the number of failed courses during the first four semesters, and the grades of three core courses; (ii) Naïve Bayes classifier performed better than Tree-based Models in predicting students’ academic achievement in general, however, Random Forest outperformed Naïve Bayes in predicting honorary students; (iii) English language skills do not play an essential role in students’ success at the college of Computer and Information Sciences; and (iv) studying an orientation year does not contribute to students’ success. Recommendations for Practitioners: We would recommend instructors to consider using EDM in predicting students’ academic achievement and benefit from that in customizing students’ learning experience based on their different needs. Recommendation for Researchers: We would highly endorse that researchers apply more EDM studies across various universities and compare between them. For example, future research could investigate the effects of offering tutoring sessions for students who fail core courses in their first semesters, examine the role of language skills in social science programs, and examine the role of the orientation year in other programs. Impact on Society: The prediction of academic performance can help both teachers and students in many ways. It also enables the early discovery of honorary students. Thus, well-deserved opportunities can be offered; for example, scholarships, internships, and workshops. It can also help identify students who require special attention to take an appropriate intervention at the earliest stage possible. Moreover, instructors can be aware of each student’s capability and customize the teaching tasks based on students’ needs. Future Research: For future work, the experiment can be repeated with a larger dataset. It could also be extended with more distinctive attributes to reach more accurate results that are useful for improving the students’ learning outcomes. Moreover, experiments could be done using other data mining algorithms to get a broader approach and more valuable and accurate outputs.




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Predicting green entrepreneurial intention among farmers using the theory of entrepreneurial events and institutional theory

Green entrepreneurial intention (GEI) in the agriculture sector signifies agricultural businesses' strong determination to embrace environmentally sustainable practices and innovative eco-friendly approaches. To understand farmers' GEI, the research applied theories of entrepreneurial events and institutional theory. A model was developed and empirically validated through structural equation modelling (SEM). A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from 211 farmers from the southern region of India. Findings revealed that perceived desirability, perceived feasibility, mimetic pressure, and entrepreneurial mindset positively influenced GEI. Entrepreneurial mindset played a mediating role in strengthening the farmers GEI. This study contributes to understanding GEI in agriculture and informs strategies for promoting sustainable farming practices.




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Intelligence assistant using deep learning: use case in crop disease prediction

In India, 70% of the Indian population is dependent on agriculture, yet agriculture generates only 13% of the country's gross domestic product. Several factors contribute to high levels of stress among farmers in India, such as increased input costs, draughts, and reduced revenues. The problem lies in the absence of an integrated farm advisory system. A farmer needs help to bridge this information gap, and they need it early in the crop's lifecycle to prevent it from being destroyed by pests or diseases. This research involves developing deep learning algorithms such as <i>ResNet18</i> and <i>DenseNet121</i> to help farmers diagnose crop diseases earlier and take corrective actions. By using deep learning techniques to detect these crop diseases with images farmers can scan or click with their smartphones, we can fill in the knowledge gap. To facilitate the use of the models by farmers, they are deployed in Android-based smartphones.




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Prediction method of college students' achievements based on learning behaviour data mining

This paper proposes a method for predicting college students' performance based on learning behaviour data mining. The method addresses the issue of limited sample size affecting prediction accuracy. It utilises the K-means clustering algorithm to mine learning behaviour data and employs a density-based approach to determine optimal clustering centres, which are then output as the results of the clustering process. These clustering results are used as input for an attention encoder-decoder model to extract features from the learning behaviour sequence, incorporating an attention mechanism, sequence feature generator, and decoder. The characteristics derived from the learning behaviour sequence are then used to establish a prediction model for college students' performance, employing support vector regression. Experimental results demonstrate that this method accurately predicts students' performance with a relative error of less than 4% by leveraging the results obtained from learning behaviour data mining.




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A survey on predicting at-risk students through learning analytics

This paper analyses the adoption of learning analytics to predict at-risk students. A total of 233 research articles between 2004 and 2023 were collected from Scopus for this study. They were analysed in terms of the relevant types and sources of data, targets of prediction, learning analytics methods, and performance metrics. The results show that data related to students' academic performance, socio-demographics, and learning behaviours have been commonly collected. Most studies have addressed the identification of students who have a higher chance of poor academic performance or dropping out of their courses. Decision trees, random forests, and artificial neural networks are the most frequently used techniques for prediction, with ensemble methods gaining popularity in recent years. Classification accuracy, recall, sensitivity, and true positive rate are commonly used as performance metrics for evaluation. The results reveal the potential of learning analytics for informing timely and evidence-based support for at-risk students.




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Transformative advances in volatility prediction: unveiling an innovative model selection method using exponentially weighted information criteria

Using information criteria is a common method for making a decision about which model to use for forecasting. There are many different methods for evaluating forecasting models, such as MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and Theil-U, among others. After the creation of AIC, AICc, HQ, BIC, and BICc, the two criteria that have become the most popular and commonly utilised are Bayesian IC and Akaike's IC. In this investigation, we are innovative in our use of exponential weighting to get the log-likelihood of the information criteria for model selection, which means that we propose assigning greater weight to more recent data in order to reflect their increased precision. All research data is from the major stock markets' daily observations, which include the USA (GSPC, DJI), Europe (FTSE 100, AEX, and FCHI), and Asia (Nikkei).




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Is Usage Predictable Using Belief-Attitude-Intention Paradigm?




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Predicting Suitable Areas for Growing Cassava Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques: A Study in Nakhon-Phanom Thailand

Aim/Purpose: Although cassava is one of the crops that can be grown during the dry season in Northeastern Thailand, most farmers in the region do not know whether the crop can grow in their specific areas because the available agriculture planning guideline provides only a generic list of dry-season crops that can be grown in the whole region. The purpose of this research is to develop a predictive model that can be used to predict suitable areas for growing cassava in Northeastern Thailand during the dry season. Background: This paper develops a decision support system that can be used by farmers to assist them determine if cassava can be successfully grown in their specific areas. Methodology: This study uses satellite imagery and data on land characteristics to develop a machine learning model for predicting suitable areas for growing cassava in Thailand’s Nakhon-Phanom province. Contribution: This research contributes to the body of knowledge by developing a novel model for predicting suitable areas for growing cassava. Findings: This study identified elevation and Ferric Acrisols (Af) soil as the two most important features for predicting the best-suited areas for growing cassava in Nakhon-Phanom province, Thailand. The two-class boosted decision tree algorithm performs best when compared with other algorithms. The model achieved an accuracy of .886, and .746 F1-score. Recommendations for Practitioners: Farmers and agricultural extension agents will use the decision support system developed in this study to identify specific areas that are suitable for growing cassava in Nakhon-Phanom province, Thailand Recommendation for Researchers: To improve the predictive accuracy of the model developed in this study, more land and crop characteristics data should be incorporated during model development. The ground truth data for areas growing cassava should also be collected for a longer period to provide a more accurate sample of the areas that are suitable for cassava growing. Impact on Society: The use of machine learning for the development of new farming systems will enable farmers to produce more food throughout the year to feed the world’s growing population. Future Research: Further studies should be carried out to map other suitable areas for growing dry-season crops and to develop decision support systems for those crops.




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Emoji Identification and Prediction in Hebrew Political Corpus

Aim/Purpose: Any system that aims to address the task of modeling social media communication need to deal with the usage of emojis. Efficient prediction of the most likely emoji given the text of a message may help to improve different NLP tasks. Background: We explore two tasks: emoji identification and emoji prediction. While emoji prediction is a classification task of predicting the emojis that appear in a given text message, emoji identification is the complementary preceding task of determining if a given text message includes emojies. Methodology: We adopt a supervised Machine Learning (ML) approach. We compare two text representation approaches, i.e., n-grams and character n-grams and analyze the contribution of additional metadata features to the classification. Contribution: The task of emoji identification is novel. We extend the definition of the emoji prediction task by allowing to use not only the textual content but also meta-data analysis. Findings: Metadata improve the classification accuracy in the task of emoji identification. In the task of emoji prediction it is better to apply feature selection. Recommendations for Practitioners: In many of the cases the classifier decision seems fitter to the comment content than the emoji that was chosen by the commentator. The classifier may be useful for emoji suggestion. Recommendation for Researchers: Explore character-based representations rather than word-based representations in the case of morphologically rich languages. Impact on Society: Improve the modeling of social media communication. Future Research: We plan to address the multi-label setting of the emoji prediction task and to investigate the deep learning approach for both of our classification tasks




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Predicting Internet-based Online Community Size and Time to Peak Membership Using the Bass Model of New Product Growth




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Decision Making for Predictive Maintenance in Asset Information Management




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Analysis of Explanatory and Predictive Architectures and the Relevance in Explaining the Adoption of IT in SMEs




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Predicting the Adoption of Social Media: An Integrated Model and Empirical Study on Facebook Usage

Aim/Purpose: This study aims at (1) extending an existing theoretical framework to gain a deeper understanding of the technology acceptance process, notably of the Facebook social network in an unexplored Middle East context, (2) investigating the influence of social support theory on Facebook adoption outside the work context, (3) validating the effectiveness of the proposed research model for enhancing Facebook adoption, and (4) determining the effect of individual differences (gender, age, experience, and educational level) amongst Facebook users on the associated path between the proposed model constructs. Background: Social networking sites (SNSs) are widely adopted to facilitate social interaction in the Web-based medium. As such, this present work contends that there is a gap in the existing literature, particularly in the Middle East context, as regards an empirical investigation of the relationship between the social, psychological, individual, and cognitive constructs potentially affecting users’ intention to accept SNSs. The present research, therefore, attempts to address this deficit. The relevance of this work is also considered in light of the scarcity of empirical evidence and lack of detailed research on the effect of social support theory with regard to SNS adoption in a non-work context. Methodology: A quantitative research approach was adopted for this study. The corresponding analysis was carried out based on structural equation modelling (SEM), more specifically, partial least squares (PLS), using SmartPLS software. Earlier research recommended the PLS approach for exploratory studies when extending an existing model or developing a new theory. PLS is also a superior method of complex causal modelling. Moreover, a multi-group analysis technique was adopted to investigate the moderating influence of individual differences. This method divides the dataset into two groups and then computes the cause and effect relationships between the research model variables for each set. The analysis of an in-person survey with a sample of Facebook users (N=369) subsequently suggested four significant predictors of continuous Facebook use. Contribution: This study contributes to the body of knowledge relating to SNSs by providing empirical evidence of constructs that influence Facebook acceptance in the case of a developing country. It raises awareness of antecedents of Facebook acceptance at a time when SNSs are widely used in Arab nations and worldwide. It also contributes to previous literature on the effectiveness of the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) in different cultural contexts. Another significant contribution of this study is that it has reported on the relevance of social support theory to Facebook adoption, with this theory demonstrating a significant and direct ability to predict Facebook acceptance. Finally, the present research identified the significant moderating effect of individual differences on the associated path between the proposed model constructs. This means that regardless of technological development, individual gaps still appeared to exist among users. Findings: The findings suggested four significant predictors of continuous Facebook use, namely, (a) performance expectancy, (b) peer support, (c) family support, and (d) perceived playfulness. Furthermore, behavioral intention and facilitating conditions were found to be significant determinants of actual Facebook use, while individual differences were shown to moderate the path strength between several variables in the proposed research model. Recommendations for Practitioners: The results of the present study make practical contributions to SNS organizations. For example, this research revealed that users do not adopt Facebook because of its usefulness alone; instead, users’ acceptance is developed through a sequence of variables such as individual differences, psychological factors, and social and organizational beliefs. Accordingly, social media organizations should not consider only strategies that apply to just one context, but also to other contexts characterized by different beliefs, perceptions, and cultures. Moreover, the evidence provided here is that social support theory has a significant influence on SNSs acceptance. This suggests that social media organizations should provide services to support this concept. Furthermore, the significant positive effect of perceived playfulness on the intention to use SNSs implied that designers and organizations should pay further attention to the entertainment services provided by social networks. Recommendation for Researchers: To validate the proposed conceptual framework, researchers from different countries and cultures are invited to apply the model. Moreover, a longitudinal research design could be implemented to gather data over a longer period, in order to investigate whether users have changed their attitudes, beliefs, perceptions, and intention by the end of the study period. Other constructs, such as individual experience, compatibility, and quality of working life could be included to improve the power of the proposed model. Impact on Society: Middle Eastern Facebook users regard the network as an important tool for interacting with others. The increasing number of Facebook users renders it a tool of universal communication and enjoyment, as well as a marketing network. However, knowledge of the constructs affecting the application of SNSs is valuable for ensuring that such sites have the various functions required to suit different types of user. Future Research: It is hoped that our future research will build on the results of this work and attempt to provide further explanation of why users accept SNSs. In this future research, the proposed research model could be adopted to explore SNSs acceptance in other developing countries. Researchers might also include other factors of potential influence on SNSs acceptance. The constructs influencing acceptance of other social networks could then be compared to the present research findings and thus, the differences and similarities would be highlighted.




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Improving Webpage Access Predictions Based on Sequence Prediction and PageRank Algorithm

Aim/Purpose: In this article, we provide a better solution to Webpage access prediction. In particularly, our core proposed approach is to increase accuracy and efficiency by reducing the sequence space with integration of PageRank into CPT+. Background: The problem of predicting the next page on a web site has become significant because of the non-stop growth of Internet in terms of the volume of contents and the mass of users. The webpage prediction is complex because we should consider multiple kinds of information such as the webpage name, the contents of the webpage, the user profile, the time between webpage visits, differences among users, and the time spent on a page or on each part of the page. Therefore, webpage access prediction draws substantial effort of the web mining research community in order to obtain valuable information and improve user experience as well. Methodology: CPT+ is a complex prediction algorithm that dramatically offers more accurate predictions than other state-of-the-art models. The integration of the importance of every particular page on a website (i.e., the PageRank) regarding to its associations with other pages into CPT+ model can improve the performance of the existing model. Contribution: In this paper, we propose an approach to reduce prediction space while improving accuracy through combining CPT+ and PageRank algorithms. Experimental results on several real datasets indicate the space reduced by up to between 15% and 30%. As a result, the run-time is quicker. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is improved. It is convenient that researchers go on using CPT+ to predict Webpage access. Findings: Our experimental results indicate that PageRank algorithm is a good solution to improve CPT+ prediction. An amount of though approximately 15 % to 30% of redundant data is removed from datasets while improving the accuracy. Recommendations for Practitioners: The result of the article could be used in developing relevant applications such as Webpage and product recommendation systems. Recommendation for Researchers: The paper provides a prediction model that integrates CPT+ and PageRank algorithms to tackle the problem of complexity and accuracy. The model has been experimented against several real datasets in order to show its performance. Impact on Society: Given an improving model to predict Webpage access using in several fields such as e-learning, product recommendation, link prediction, and user behavior prediction, the society can enjoy a better experience and more efficient environment while surfing the Web. Future Research: We intend to further improve the accuracy of webpage access prediction by using the combination of CPT+ and other algorithms.




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Predicting Key Predictors of Project Desertion in Blockchain: Experts’ Verification Using One-Sample T-Test

Aim/Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the critical predictors affecting project desertion in Blockchain projects. Background: Blockchain is one of the innovations that disrupt a broad range of industries and has attracted the interest of software developers. However, despite being an open-source software (OSS) project, the maintenance of the project ultimately relies on small core developers, and it is still uncertain whether the technology will continue to attract a sufficient number of developers. Methodology: The study utilized a systematic literature review (SLR) and an expert review method. The SLR identified 21 primary studies related to project desertion published in Scopus databases from the year 2010 to 2020. Then, Blockchain experts were asked to rank the importance of the identified predictors of project desertion in Blockchain. Contribution: A theoretical framework was constructed based on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs; personal, behavior, and environmental predictors and related theories. Findings: The findings indicate that the 12 predictors affecting Blockchain project desertion identified through SLR were important and significant. Recommendations for Practitioners: The framework proposed in this paper can be used by the Blockchain development community as a basis to identify developers who might have the tendency to abandon a Blockchain project. Recommendation for Researchers: The results show that some predictors, such as code testing tasks, contributed code decoupling, system integration and expert heterogeneity that are not covered in the existing developer turnover models can be integrated into future research efforts. Impact on Society: This study highlights how an individual’s design choices could determine the success or failure of IS projects. It could direct Blockchain crypto-currency investors and cyber-security managers to pay attention to the developer’s behavior while ensuring secure investments, especially for crypto-currencies projects. Future Research: Future research may employ additional methods, such as a meta-analysis, to provide a comprehensive picture of the main predictors that can predict project desertion in Blockchain.




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Multiple Models in Predicting Acquisitions in the Indian Manufacturing Sector: A Performance Comparison

Aim/Purpose: Acquisitions play a pivotal role in the growth strategy of a firm. Extensive resources and time are dedicated by a firm toward the identification of prospective acquisition candidates. The Indian manufacturing sector is currently experiencing significant growth, organically and inorganically, through acquisitions. The principal aim of this study is to explore models that can predict acquisitions and compare their performance in the Indian manufacturing sector. Background: Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) have been integral to a firm’s growth strategy. Over the years, academic research has investigated multiple models for predicting acquisitions. In the context of the Indian manufacturing industry, the research is limited to prediction models. This research paper explores three models, namely Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, and Multilayer Perceptron, to predict acquisitions. Methodology: The methodology includes defining the accounting variables to be used in the model which have been selected based on strong theoretical foundations. The Indian manufacturing industry was selected as the focus, specifically, data for firms listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) between 2010 and 2022 from the Prowess database. There were multiple techniques, such as data transformation and data scrubbing, that were used to mitigate bias and enhance the data reliability. The dataset was split into 70% training and 30% test data. The performance of the three models was compared using standard metrics. Contribution: The research contributes to the existing body of knowledge in multiple dimensions. First, a prediction model customized to the Indian manufacturing sector has been developed. Second, there are accounting variables identified specific to the Indian manufacturing sector. Third, the paper contributes to prediction modeling in the Indian manufacturing sector where there is limited research. Findings: The study found significant supporting evidence for four of the proposed hypotheses indicating that accounting variables can be used to predict acquisitions. It has been ascertained that statistically significant variables influence acquisition likelihood: Quick Ratio, Equity Turnover, Pretax Margin, and Total Sales. These variables are intrinsically linked with the theories of liquidity, growth-resource mismatch, profitability, and firm size. Furthermore, comparing performance metrics reveals that the Decision Tree model exhibits the highest accuracy rate of 62.3%, specificity rate of 66.4%, and the lowest false positive ratio of 33.6%. In contrast, the Multilayer Perceptron model exhibits the highest precision rate of 61.4% and recall rate of 64.3%. Recommendations for Practitioners: The study findings can help practitioners build custom prediction models for their firms. The model can be developed as a live reference model, which is continually updated based on a firm’s results. In addition, there is an opportunity for industry practitioners to establish a benchmark score that provides a reference for acquisitions. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers can expand the scope of research by including additional classification modeling techniques. The data quality can be enhanced by cross-validation with other databases. Textual commentary about the target firms, including management and analyst quotes, provides additional insight that can enhance the predictive power of the models. Impact on Society: The research provides insights into leveraging emerging technologies to predict acquisitions. The theoretical basis and modeling attributes provide a foundation that can be further expanded to suit specific industries and firms. Future Research: There are opportunities to expand the scope of research in various dimensions by comparing acquisition prediction models across industries and cross-border and domestic acquisitions. Additionally, it is plausible to explore further research by incorporating non-financial data, such as management commentary, to augment the acquisition prediction model.




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Predicting Software Change-Proneness From Software Evolution Using Machine Learning Methods

Aim/Purpose: To predict the change-proneness of software from the continuous evolution using machine learning methods. To identify when software changes become statistically significant and how metrics change. Background: Software evolution is the most time-consuming activity after a software release. Understanding evolution patterns aids in understanding post-release software activities. Many methodologies have been proposed to comprehend software evolution and growth. As a result, change prediction is critical for future software maintenance. Methodology: I propose using machine learning methods to predict change-prone classes. Classes that are expected to change in future releases were defined as change-prone. The previous release was only considered by the researchers to define change-proneness. In this study, I use the evolution of software to redefine change-proneness. Many snapshots of software were studied to determine when changes became statistically significant, and snapshots were taken biweekly. The research was validated by looking at the evolution of five large open-source systems. Contribution: In this study, I use the evolution of software to redefine change-proneness. The research was validated by looking at the evolution of five large open-source systems. Findings: Software metrics can measure the significance of evolution in software. In addition, metric values change within different periods and the significance of change should be considered for each metric separately. For five classifiers, change-proneness prediction models were trained on one snapshot and tested on the next. In most snapshots, the prediction performance was excellent. For example, for Eclipse, the F-measure values were between 80 and 94. For other systems, the F-measure values were higher than 75 for most snapshots. Recommendations for Practitioners: Software change happens frequently in the evolution of software; however, the significance of change happens over a considerable length of time and this time should be considered when evaluating the quality of software. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers should consider the significance of change when studying software evolution. Software changes should be taken from different perspectives besides the size or length of the code. Impact on Society: Software quality management is affected by the continuous evolution of projects. Knowing the appropriate time for software maintenance reduces the costs and impacts of software changes. Future Research: Studying the significance of software evolution for software refactoring helps improve the internal quality of software code.




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A Model Predicting Student Engagement and Intention with Mobile Learning Management Systems

Aim/Purpose: The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a comprehensive model that predicts students’ engagement with and intent to continue using mobile-Learning Management Systems (m-LMS). Background: m-LMS are increasingly popular tools for delivering course content in higher education. Understanding the factors that affect student engagement and continuance intention can help educational institutions to develop more effective and user-friendly m-LMS platforms. Methodology: Participants with prior experience with m-LMS were employed to develop and evaluate the proposed model that draws on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), Task-Technology Fit (TTF), and other related models. Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to evaluate the model. Contribution: The study provides a comprehensive model that takes into account a variety of factors affecting engagement and continuance intention and has a strong predictive capability. Findings: The results of the study provide evidence for the strong predictive capability of the proposed model and supports previous research. The model identifies perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, interactivity, compatibility, enjoyment, and social influence as factors that significantly influence student engagement and continuance intention. Recommendations for Practitioners: The findings of this study can help educational institutions to effectively meet the needs of students for interactive, effective, and user-friendly m-LMS platforms. Recommendation for Researchers: This study highlights the importance of understanding the antecedents of students’ engagement with m-LMS. Future research should be conducted to test the proposed model in different contexts and with different populations to further validate its applicability. Impact on Society: The engagement model can help educational institutions to understand how to improve student engagement and continuance intention with m-LMS, ultimately leading to more effective and efficient mobile learning. Future Research: Additional research should be conducted to test the proposed model in different contexts and with different populations to further validate its applicability.




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Customer Churn Prediction in the Banking Sector Using Machine Learning-Based Classification Models

Aim/Purpose: Previous research has generally concentrated on identifying the variables that most significantly influence customer churn or has used customer segmentation to identify a subset of potential consumers, excluding its effects on forecast accuracy. Consequently, there are two primary research goals in this work. The initial goal was to examine the impact of customer segmentation on the accuracy of customer churn prediction in the banking sector using machine learning models. The second objective is to experiment, contrast, and assess which machine learning approaches are most effective in predicting customer churn. Background: This paper reviews the theoretical basis of customer churn, and customer segmentation, and suggests using supervised machine-learning techniques for customer attrition prediction. Methodology: In this study, we use different machine learning models such as k-means clustering to segment customers, k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machine to apply to the dataset to predict customer churn. Contribution: The results demonstrate that the dataset performs well with the random forest model, with an accuracy of about 97%, and that, following customer segmentation, the mean accuracy of each model performed well, with logistic regression having the lowest accuracy (87.27%) and random forest having the best (97.25%). Findings: Customer segmentation does not have much impact on the precision of predictions. It is dependent on the dataset and the models we choose. Recommendations for Practitioners: The practitioners can apply the proposed solutions to build a predictive system or apply them in other fields such as education, tourism, marketing, and human resources. Recommendation for Researchers: The research paradigm is also applicable in other areas such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and churn prediction. Impact on Society: Customer churn will cause the value flowing from customers to enterprises to decrease. If customer churn continues to occur, the enterprise will gradually lose its competitive advantage. Future Research: Build a real-time or near real-time application to provide close information to make good decisions. Furthermore, handle the imbalanced data using new techniques.




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Modeling the Predictors of M-Payments Adoption for Indian Rural Transformation

Aim/Purpose: The last decade has witnessed a tremendous progression in mobile penetration across the world and, most importantly, in developing countries like India. This research aims to investigate and analyze the factors influencing the adoption of mobile payments (M-payments) in the Indian rural population. This, in turn, would bring about positive changes in the lives of people in these countries. Background: A conceptual framework was worked upon using UTAUT as a foundation, which included constructs, namely, facilitating conditions, social influences, performance expectancy, and effort expectancy. The model was further extended by incorporating the awareness construct of m-payments to make it more comprehensive and to understand behavioral intentions and usage behavior for m-payments in rural India. Methodology: A questionnaire-based study was conducted to collect primary data from 410 respondents residing in rural areas in the state of Punjab. Convenience sampling was conducted to collect the data. Structural equation modeling was used to conduct statistical analysis, including exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. Contribution: A new conceptual model for M-payments adoption in rural India was developed based on the study’s findings. Using the findings of the study, marketers, policymakers, and academicians can gain insight into the factors that motivate the rural population to use M-payments. Findings: The study has found that M-payment Awareness (AW) is the strongest factor within the proposed model for deeper diffusion of M-payments in rural areas in the state of Punjab. Performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), social influences (SI), and facilitating conditions (FC) are also positively and significantly related to behavioral intentions for using M-payments among the Indian rural population in the state of Punjab. Recommendations for Practitioners: M-payments are emerging as a new mode of transactions among the Indian masses. The government needs to play a pivotal role in advocating the benefits linked with the usage of M-payments by planning financial literacy and awareness campaigns, promoting transparency and accountability of the intermediaries, and reducing transaction costs of using M-payments. Mobile manufacturing companies should come up with devices that are easy to use and incorporate multilanguage mobile applications, especially for rural areas, as India is a multi-lingual country. A robust regulatory framework will not only shape consumer trust but also prevent privacy breaches. Recommendation for Researchers: It is recommended that a comparative study among different M-payment platforms be conducted by exploring constructs such as usefulness and ease of use. However, the vulnerability of data leakage may result in insecurity and skepticism about its adoption. Impact on Society: India’s rural areas have immense potential for adoption of M-payments. Appropriate policies, awareness drives, and necessary infrastructure will boost faster and smoother adoption of M-payments in rural India to thrive in the digital economy. Future Research: The adapted model can be further tested with moderating factors like age, gender, occupation, and education to understand better the complexities of M-payments, especially in rural areas of India. Additionally, cross-sectional studies could be conducted to evaluate the behavioral intentions of different sections of society.




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Unveiling the Secrets of Big Data Projects: Harnessing Machine Learning Algorithms and Maturity Domains to Predict Success

Aim/Purpose: While existing literature has extensively explored factors influencing the success of big data projects and proposed big data maturity models, no study has harnessed machine learning to predict project success and identify the critical features contributing significantly to that success. The purpose of this paper is to offer fresh insights into the realm of big data projects by leveraging machine-learning algorithms. Background: Previously, we introduced the Global Big Data Maturity Model (GBDMM), which encompassed various domains inspired by the success factors of big data projects. In this paper, we transformed these maturity domains into a survey and collected feedback from 90 big data experts across the Middle East, Gulf, Africa, and Turkey regions regarding their own projects. This approach aims to gather firsthand insights from practitioners and experts in the field. Methodology: To analyze the feedback obtained from the survey, we applied several algorithms suitable for small datasets and categorical features. Our approach included cross-validation and feature selection techniques to mitigate overfitting and enhance model performance. Notably, the best-performing algorithms in our study were the Decision Tree (achieving an F1 score of 67%) and the Cat Boost classifier (also achieving an F1 score of 67%). Contribution: This research makes a significant contribution to the field of big data projects. By utilizing machine-learning techniques, we predict the success or failure of such projects and identify the key features that significantly contribute to their success. This provides companies with a valuable model for predicting their own big data project outcomes. Findings: Our analysis revealed that the domains of strategy and data have the most influential impact on the success of big data projects. Therefore, companies should prioritize these domains when undertaking such projects. Furthermore, we now have an initial model capable of predicting project success or failure, which can be invaluable for companies. Recommendations for Practitioners: Based on our findings, we recommend that practitioners concentrate on developing robust strategies and prioritize data management to enhance the outcomes of their big data projects. Additionally, practitioners can leverage machine-learning techniques to predict the success rate of these projects. Recommendation for Researchers: For further research in this field, we suggest exploring additional algorithms and techniques and refining existing models to enhance the accuracy and reliability of predicting the success of big data projects. Researchers may also investigate further into the interplay between strategy, data, and the success of such projects. Impact on Society: By improving the success rate of big data projects, our findings enable organizations to create more efficient and impactful data-driven solutions across various sectors. This, in turn, facilitates informed decision-making, effective resource allocation, improved operational efficiency, and overall performance enhancement. Future Research: In the future, gathering additional feedback from a broader range of big data experts will be valuable and help refine the prediction algorithm. Conducting longitudinal studies to analyze the long-term success and outcomes of Big Data projects would be beneficial. Furthermore, exploring the applicability of our model across different regions and industries will provide further insights into the field.




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IRNN-SS: deep learning for optimised protein secondary structure prediction through PROMOTIF and DSSP annotation fusion

DSSP stands as a foundational tool in the domain of protein secondary structure prediction, yet it encounters notable challenges in accurately annotating irregular structures, such as β-turns and γ-turns, which constitute approximately 25%-30% and 10%-15% of protein turns, respectively. This limitation arises from DSSP's reliance on hydrogen-bond analysis, resulting in annotation gaps and reduced consensus on irregular structures. Alternatively, PROMOTIF excels at identifying these irregular structure annotations using phi-psi information. Despite their complementary strengths, previous methodologies utilised DSSP and PROMOTIF separately, leading to disparate prediction methods for protein secondary structures, hampering comprehensive structure analysis crucial for drug development. In this work, we bridge this gap using an annotation fusion approach, combining DSSP structures with beta, and gamma turns. We introduce IRNN-SS, a model employing deep inception and bidirectional gated recurrent neural networks, achieving 77.4% prediction accuracy on benchmark datasets, outpacing current models.




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Map reduce-based scalable Lempel-Ziv and application in route prediction

Prediction of route based on historical trip observation of users is widely employed in location-based services. This work concentrates on building a route prediction system using Lempel-Ziv technique applied to a historical corpus of user travel data. Huge continuous logs of historical GPS traces representing the user's location in past are decomposed into smaller logical units known as trips. User trips are converted into sequences of road network edges using a process known as map matching. Lempel-Ziv is applied on road network edges to build the prediction model that captures the user's travel pattern in the past. A two-phased model is proposed using a map reduce framework without losing accuracy and efficiency. Model is then used to predict the user's end-to-end route given a partial route travelled by the user at any point in time. The objective of the proposed work is to build a Route Prediction system in which model building and prediction both are horizontally scalable.




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Designing Online Information Aggregation and Prediction Markets for MBA Courses




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Data Quality in Linear Regression Models: Effect of Errors in Test Data and Errors in Training Data on Predictive Accuracy




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The Prediction of Perceived Level of Computer Knowledge: The Role of Participant Characteristics and Aversion toward Computers




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Attitudes and the Digital Divide: Attitude Measurement as Instrument to Predict Internet Usage




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The Dual Micro/Macro Informing Role of Social Network Sites: Can Twitter Macro Messages Help Predict Stock Prices?




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Predicting the Use of Twitter in Developing Countries: Integrating Innovation Attributes, Uses and Gratifications, and Trust Approaches

Based on the diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory (Rogers, 2003), the uses and gratifications (U&G) theory, and trust theory, this study investigated the factors that influence the use of Twitter among the Kuwaiti community. The study surveyed Twitter users in Kuwait. A structured online questionnaire was used to collect data, and 463 respondents who provided complete answers participated. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the effect of three theoretical perspectives on Twitter usage. The result of the analysis showed that Twitter usage is better explained by DOI constructs than by U&G constructs. The findings indicated that the perceived relative advantage from DOI, and the need for information, need to pass time, and need for interpersonal utility from the U&G approach, have a direct positive significant effect on the use of Twitter. None of the trust theory constructs was found to be significant in predicting the general use of Twitter. The study results help Twitter providers and users in individual or organizational contexts to understand what factors generally affect the usage of the Twitter service.




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Addiction Potential among Iranian Governmental Employees: Predicting Role of Perceived Stress, Job Security, and Job Satisfaction

Aim/Purpose: To explore the incidence of addiction potential within the Iranian public working population, describing how many Iranian public employees fall within the diagnostic categories of low, moderate, and high addiction potential. Also, to investigate the predicting role of occupational variables such as perceived stress, job security, and job satisfaction on addiction potential and belonging to low, moderate, and high addiction potential diagnostic categories. Background: Substance addiction among employees can lead to several negative consequences at the individual and organizational levels. Also, it is the fourth cause of death in Iran. However, few studies have been conducted on the topic among employees, and non among Iranian employees. Methodology: The study participants were 430 employees working in governmental offices of the North Khorasan province, Iran. Descriptive statistical analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were conducted to explore the incidence of addiction potential within the analyzed population and to investigate whether occupational variables such as perceived stress, job security, and job satisfaction predicted low, moderate, or high addiction potential. Contribution: This paper suggests that perceived stress might act as a risk factor for developing addiction, whereas job security and job satisfaction might be protective factors against the likelihood of addiction development. Findings: More than half of the sample showed moderate to high addiction potential. Perceived stress was positively related to addiction potential. Job security and job satisfaction were negatively related to addiction potential. Recommendation for Researchers: When addressing the topic of substance addiction, researchers should focus on the preventative side of investigating it; that is, addiction risk rather than already unfolded addiction. Also, researchers should be mindful of the cultural context in which studies are conducted. Future Research: Future research might investigate other relevant occupational predictors in relation to employee addiction potential, such as leadership style, work-life balance, and worktime schedule, or expand on the relevant causal chain by including personality traits such as neuroticism.




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Predictors of Digital Entrepreneurial Intention in Kuwait

Aim/Purpose: This study aims to explore students’ digital entrepreneurial intention (DEI) in Kuwait. Specifically, the aim is twofold: (i) to identify and examine the factors influencing and predicting students’ DEI, and (ii) to validate a model of DEI. Background: The advent of modern digital technologies has provided entrepreneurs with many opportunities to establish and expand their firms through online platforms. Although the existing literature on DEI has explored various factors, certain factors that could be linked to DEI have been neglected, and others have not been given sufficient attention. Nonetheless, there has been little research on students’ DEI, particularly in Kuwait. Methodology: To fulfill the research’s aims, a study was conducted using a quantitative method (a survey of 305 students at a non-profit university in Kuwait). Contribution: This study aimed to fill the research gap on the limited DEI research among Kuwait’s students. Several recommendations were suggested to improve the DEI among students in Kuwait. Findings: The study identified five factors that could influence an individual’s intention to engage in digital entrepreneurship. These factors include self-perceived creativity, social media use, risk-taking and opportunity recognition, digital entrepreneurship knowledge, and entrepreneurial self-perceived confidence. Significant solid correlations were between all five identified factors and DEI. However, only self-perceived creativity and entrepreneurial self-perceived confidence were identified as significant positive predictors of DEI among undergraduates in Kuwait. Nevertheless, the main contributor to this intention was the students’ self-perceived confidence as entrepreneurs. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers should conduct further longitudinal studies to understand better the dynamic nature of DEI and execution. Future Research: Additional research is required to utilize probability sampling approaches and increase the sample size for more generalizable findings.




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Critical Review of Stack Ensemble Classifier for the Prediction of Young Adults’ Voting Patterns Based on Parents’ Political Affiliations

Aim/Purpose: This review paper aims to unveil some underlying machine-learning classification algorithms used for political election predictions and how stack ensembles have been explored. Additionally, it examines the types of datasets available to researchers and presents the results they have achieved. Background: Predicting the outcomes of presidential elections has always been a significant aspect of political systems in numerous countries. Analysts and researchers examining political elections rely on existing datasets from various sources, including tweets, Facebook posts, and so forth to forecast future elections. However, these data sources often struggle to establish a direct correlation between voters and their voting patterns, primarily due to the manual nature of the voting process. Numerous factors influence election outcomes, including ethnicity, voter incentives, and campaign messages. The voting patterns of successors in regions of countries remain uncertain, and the reasons behind such patterns remain ambiguous. Methodology: The study examined a collection of articles obtained from Google Scholar, through search, focusing on the use of ensemble classifiers and machine learning classifiers and their application in predicting political elections through machine learning algorithms. Some specific keywords for the search include “ensemble classifier,” “political election prediction,” and “machine learning”, “stack ensemble”. Contribution: The study provides a broad and deep review of political election predictions through the use of machine learning algorithms and summarizes the major source of the dataset in the said analysis. Findings: Single classifiers have featured greatly in political election predictions, though ensemble classifiers have been used and have proven potent use in the said field is rather low. Recommendation for Researchers: The efficacy of stack classification algorithms can play a significant role in machine learning classification when modelled tactfully and is efficient in handling labelled datasets. however, runtime becomes a hindrance when the dataset grows larger with the increased number of base classifiers forming the stack. Future Research: There is the need to ensure a more comprehensive analysis, alternative data sources rather than depending largely on tweets, and explore ensemble machine learning classifiers in predicting political elections. Also, ensemble classification algorithms have indeed demonstrated superior performance when carefully chosen and combined.




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Early prediction of mental health using SqueezeR_MobileNet

Mental illnesses are common among college students as well as their non-student peers, and the number and severity of these problems are increasing. It can be difficult to identify people suffering from mental illness and get the help they need early. So in this paper, the SqueezeR_MobileNet method is proposed. It performs feature fusion and early mental health prediction. Initially, outliers in the input data are detected and removed. After that, using missing data imputation and Z-score normalisation the pre-processing phase is executed. Next to this, for feature fusion, a combination of the Soergel metric and deep Kronecker network (DKN) is used. By utilising bootstrapping data augmentation is performed. Finally, early mental health prediction is done using SqueezeR_MobileNet, which is the incorporation of residual SqueezeNet and MobileNet. The devised approach has reached the highest specificity of 0.937, accuracy of 0.911 and sensitivity of 0.907.




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Q-DenseNet for heart disease prediction in spark framework

This paper presents a novel deep learning technique called quantum dilated convolutional neural network-DenseNet (Q-DenseNet) for prediction of heart disease in spark framework. At first, the input data taken from the database is allowed for data partitioning using fast fuzzy C-means clustering (FFCM). The partitioned data is fed into spark framework, where pre-processed by missing data imputation and quantile normalisation. The pre-processed data is further allowed for selection of suitable features. Then, the selected features from the slave nodes are merged and fed into master node. The Q-DenseNet is used in master node for the prediction of heart disease. The performance improvement of the designed Q-DenseNet model is validated by comparing with traditional prediction models. Here, the Q-DenseNet method achieved superior performance with maximum of 92.65% specificity, 91.74% sensitivity, and 90.15% accuracy.




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A data mining model to predict the debts with risk of non-payment in tax administration

One of the main tasks in tax administration is debt management. The main goal of this function is tax due collection. Statements are processed in order to select strategies to use in the debt management process to optimise the debt collection process. This work proposes to carry out a data mining process to predict debts of taxpayers with high probability of non-payment. The data mining process identifies high-risk debts using a survival analysis on a dataset from a tax administration. Three groups of tax debtors with similar payment behaviour were identified and a success rate of up to 90% was reached in estimating the payment time of taxpayers. The concordance index (C-index) was used to determine the performance of the constructed model. The highest prediction rate reached was 90.37% corresponding to the third group.




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The PREDICTS database

A new paper describing the PREDICTS database has been published and is now available in open-access publication in Ecology and Evolution.

PREDICTS - Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - is a collaborative project aiming to use a meta-analytic approach to investigate how local biodiversity typically responds to human pressures such as land-use change, pollution, invasive species and infrastructure, and ultimately improve our ability to predict future biodiversity changes.

Abstract:

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – 

Original Source:

Hudson L. N. et. al. (2014) The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts. Ecology and Evolution, Vol 4, 24: 4701–4735. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1303

 





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Potential of remote sensing to predict species invasions - a modeling perspective




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Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios





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How to predict fine resolution occupancy from coarse occupancy data





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Red Sox $45 Million Power Hitter Predicted To Ditch Boston In Favor Of Royals

There was once a time when the Boston Red Sox never had to worry about losing a prized free agent to an American League Central team, but that time may have passed. The Kansas City Royals appear to be leading the charge, having spent over $100 million in free-agent contracts last winter. This winter, the Royals look to be active again, already inking starting pitcher Michael Wacha to a three-year, $51 million extension. Perhaps their next move could be to pilfer a big bat from the Boston lineup.




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Almost seven million people predicted to take part in this year’s Big Help Out, organisers say

This weekend’s event is offering more than a million volunteering opportunities through its app




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Study identifies predictors of longer-term opioid use among injured workers

Cambridge, MA — Workers who receive larger quantities of opioids shortly after an injury, as well as those who are prescribed higher doses, are at increased risk of longer-term opioid use, according to a recent study from the Workers Compensation Research Institute.




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Unpredictable schedules adversely affect worker well-being: report

Lansing, MI — Service sector workers with irregular schedules often experience greater levels of stress and exhaustion, according to a recent report.