Rahul Mazumder, Haolei Weng.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1348--1385.

Abstract:
Estimating a low rank matrix from its linear measurements is a problem of central importance in contemporary statistical analysis. The choice of tuning parameters for estimators remains an important challenge from a theoretical and practical perspective. To this end, Stein’s Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE) framework provides a well-grounded statistical framework for degrees of freedom estimation. In this paper, we use the SURE framework to obtain degrees of freedom estimates for a general class of spectral regularized matrix estimators—our results generalize beyond the class of estimators that have been studied thus far. To this end, we use a result due to Shapiro (2002) pertaining to the differentiability of symmetric matrix valued functions, developed in the context of semidefinite optimization algorithms. We rigorously verify the applicability of Stein’s Lemma towards the derivation of degrees of freedom estimates; and also present new techniques based on Gaussian convolution to estimate the degrees of freedom of a class of spectral estimators, for which Stein’s Lemma does not directly apply.

Zhixin Zhou, Ping Li.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1302--1347.

Abstract:
The Chernoff coefficient is known to be an upper bound of Bayes error probability in classification problem. In this paper, we will develop a rate optimal Chernoff bound on the Bayes error probability. The new bound is not only an upper bound but also a lower bound of Bayes error probability up to a constant factor. Moreover, we will apply this result to community detection in the stochastic block models. As a clustering problem, the optimal misclassification rate of community detection problem can be characterized by our rate optimal Chernoff bound. This can be formalized by deriving a minimax error rate over certain parameter space of stochastic block models, then achieving such an error rate by a feasible algorithm employing multiple steps of EM type updates.

Vincent Brault, Christine Keribin, Mahendra Mariadassou.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1234--1268.

Abstract:
The Latent Block Model (LBM) is a model-based method to cluster simultaneously the $d$ columns and $n$ rows of a data matrix. Parameter estimation in LBM is a difficult and multifaceted problem. Although various estimation strategies have been proposed and are now well understood empirically, theoretical guarantees about their asymptotic behavior is rather sparse and most results are limited to the binary setting. We prove here theoretical guarantees in the valued settings. We show that under some mild conditions on the parameter space, and in an asymptotic regime where $log (d)/n$ and $log (n)/d$ tend to $0$ when $n$ and $d$ tend to infinity, (1) the maximum-likelihood estimate of the complete model (with known labels) is consistent and (2) the log-likelihood ratios are equivalent under the complete and observed (with unknown labels) models. This equivalence allows us to transfer the asymptotic consistency, and under mild conditions, asymptotic normality, to the maximum likelihood estimate under the observed model. Moreover, the variational estimator is also consistent and, under the same conditions, asymptotically normal.

Tomáš Rubín, Victor M. Panaretos.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1137--1210.

Abstract:
Functional time series analysis, whether based on time or frequency domain methodology, has traditionally been carried out under the assumption of complete observation of the constituent series of curves, assumed stationary. Nevertheless, as is often the case with independent functional data, it may well happen that the data available to the analyst are not the actual sequence of curves, but relatively few and noisy measurements per curve, potentially at different locations in each curve’s domain. Under this sparse sampling regime, neither the established estimators of the time series’ dynamics nor their corresponding theoretical analysis will apply. The subject of this paper is to tackle the problem of estimating the dynamics and of recovering the latent process of smooth curves in the sparse regime. Assuming smoothness of the latent curves, we construct a consistent nonparametric estimator of the series’ spectral density operator and use it to develop a frequency-domain recovery approach, that predicts the latent curve at a given time by borrowing strength from the (estimated) dynamic correlations in the series across time. This new methodology is seen to comprehensively outperform a naive recovery approach that would ignore temporal dependence and use only methodology employed in the i.i.d. setting and hinging on the lag zero covariance. Further to predicting the latent curves from their noisy point samples, the method fills in gaps in the sequence (curves nowhere sampled), denoises the data, and serves as a basis for forecasting. Means of providing corresponding confidence bands are also investigated. A simulation study interestingly suggests that sparse observation for a longer time period may provide better performance than dense observation for a shorter period, in the presence of smoothness. The methodology is further illustrated by application to an environmental data set on fair-weather atmospheric electricity, which naturally leads to a sparse functional time series.

Fabien Panloup, Samy Tindel, Maylis Varvenne.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 1075--1136.

Abstract:
In this paper we consider the drift estimation problem for a general differential equation driven by an additive multidimensional fractional Brownian motion, under ergodic assumptions on the drift coefficient. Our estimation procedure is based on the identification of the invariant measure, and we provide consistency results as well as some information about the convergence rate. We also give some examples of coefficients for which the identifiability assumption for the invariant measure is satisfied.

Xianzheng Huang, Haiming Zhou.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 970--1023.

Abstract:
We consider estimating the density of a response conditioning on an error-prone covariate. Motivated by two existing kernel density estimators in the absence of covariate measurement error, we propose a method to correct the existing estimators for measurement error. Asymptotic properties of the resultant estimators under different types of measurement error distributions are derived. Moreover, we adjust bandwidths readily available from existing bandwidth selection methods developed for error-free data to obtain bandwidths for the new estimators. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to compare the proposed estimators with naive estimators that ignore measurement error, which also provide empirical evidence for the effectiveness of the proposed bandwidth selection methods. A real-life data example is used to illustrate implementation of these methods under practical scenarios. An R package, lpme, is developed for implementing all considered methods, which we demonstrate via an R code example in Appendix B.2.

Karl Ewald, Ulrike Schneider.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 944--969.

Abstract:
We derive expressions for the finite-sample distribution of the Lasso estimator in the context of a linear regression model in low as well as in high dimensions by exploiting the structure of the optimization problem defining the estimator. In low dimensions, we assume full rank of the regressor matrix and present expressions for the cumulative distribution function as well as the densities of the absolutely continuous parts of the estimator. Our results are presented for the case of normally distributed errors, but do not hinge on this assumption and can easily be generalized. Additionally, we establish an explicit formula for the correspondence between the Lasso and the least-squares estimator. We derive analogous results for the distribution in less explicit form in high dimensions where we make no assumptions on the regressor matrix at all. In this setting, we also investigate the model selection properties of the Lasso and show that possibly only a subset of models might be selected by the estimator, completely independently of the observed response vector. Finally, we present a condition for uniqueness of the estimator that is necessary as well as sufficient.

Daniel Rudolf, Björn Sprungk.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 857--889.

Abstract:
A classical approach for approximating expectations of functions w.r.t. partially known distributions is to compute the average of function values along a trajectory of a Metropolis–Hastings (MH) Markov chain. A key part in the MH algorithm is a suitable acceptance/rejection of a proposed state, which ensures the correct stationary distribution of the resulting Markov chain. However, the rejection of proposals causes highly correlated samples. In particular, when a state is rejected it is not taken any further into account. In contrast to that we consider a MH importance sampling estimator which explicitly incorporates all proposed states generated by the MH algorithm. The estimator satisfies a strong law of large numbers as well as a central limit theorem, and, in addition to that, we provide an explicit mean squared error bound. Remarkably, the asymptotic variance of the MH importance sampling estimator does not involve any correlation term in contrast to its classical counterpart. Moreover, although the analyzed estimator uses the same amount of information as the classical MH estimator, it can outperform the latter in scenarios of moderate dimensions as indicated by numerical experiments.

Benjamin Colling, Ingrid Van Keilegom.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 769--800.

Abstract:
Consider the following semiparametric transformation model $Lambda_{ heta }(Y)=m(X)+varepsilon $, where $X$ is a $d$-dimensional covariate, $Y$ is a univariate response variable and $varepsilon $ is an error term with zero mean and independent of $X$. We assume that $m$ is an unknown regression function and that ${Lambda _{ heta }: heta inTheta }$ is a parametric family of strictly increasing functions. Our goal is to develop two new estimators of the transformation parameter $ heta $. The main idea of these two estimators is to minimize, with respect to $ heta $, the $L_{2}$-distance between the transformation $Lambda _{ heta }$ and one of its fully nonparametric estimators. We consider in particular the nonparametric estimator based on the least-absolute deviation loss constructed in Colling and Van Keilegom (2019). We establish the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the two proposed estimators of $ heta $. We also carry out a simulation study to illustrate and compare the performance of our new parametric estimators to that of the profile likelihood estimator constructed in Linton et al. (2008).

Christopher Withers, Saralees Nadarajah

Source: Electron. J. Statist., Volume 4, 1--14.

Abstract:
We consider M estimation of a regression model with a nuisance parameter and a vector of other parameters. The unknown distribution of the residuals is not assumed to be normal or symmetric. Simple and easily estimated formulas are given for the dominant terms of the bias and skewness of the parameter estimates. For the linear model these are proportional to the skewness of the ‘independent’ variables. For a nonlinear model, its linear component plays the role of these independent variables, and a second term must be added proportional to the covariance of its linear and quadratic components. For the least squares estimate with normal errors this term was derived by Box [1]. We also consider the effect of a large number of parameters, and the case of random independent variables.

This paper considers online convex optimization over a complicated constraint set, which typically consists of multiple functional constraints and a set constraint. The conventional online projection algorithm (Zinkevich, 2003) can be difficult to implement due to the potentially high computation complexity of the projection operation. In this paper, we relax the functional constraints by allowing them to be violated at each round but still requiring them to be satisfied in the long term. This type of relaxed online convex optimization (with long term constraints) was first considered in Mahdavi et al. (2012). That prior work proposes an algorithm to achieve $O(sqrt{T})$ regret and $O(T^{3/4})$ constraint violations for general problems and another algorithm to achieve an $O(T^{2/3})$ bound for both regret and constraint violations when the constraint set can be described by a finite number of linear constraints. A recent extension in Jenatton et al. (2016) can achieve $O(T^{max{ heta,1- heta}})$ regret and $O(T^{1- heta/2})$ constraint violations where $ hetain (0,1)$. The current paper proposes a new simple algorithm that yields improved performance in comparison to prior works. The new algorithm achieves an $O(sqrt{T})$ regret bound with $O(1)$ constraint violations.

We study the question of whether parallelization in the exploration of the feasible set can be used to speed up convex optimization, in the local oracle model of computation and in the high-dimensional regime. We show that the answer is negative for both deterministic and randomized algorithms applied to essentially any of the interesting geometries and nonsmooth, weakly-smooth, or smooth objective functions. In particular, we show that it is not possible to obtain a polylogarithmic (in the sequential complexity of the problem) number of parallel rounds with a polynomial (in the dimension) number of queries per round. In the majority of these settings and when the dimension of the space is polynomial in the inverse target accuracy, our lower bounds match the oracle complexity of sequential convex optimization, up to at most a logarithmic factor in the dimension, which makes them (nearly) tight. Another conceptual contribution of our work is in providing a general and streamlined framework for proving lower bounds in the setting of parallel convex optimization. Prior to our work, lower bounds for parallel convex optimization algorithms were only known in a small fraction of the settings considered in this paper, mainly applying to Euclidean ($ell_2$) and $ell_infty$ spaces.

We study derivative-free methods for policy optimization over the class of linear policies. We focus on characterizing the convergence rate of these methods when applied to linear-quadratic systems, and study various settings of driving noise and reward feedback. Our main theoretical result provides an explicit bound on the sample or evaluation complexity: we show that these methods are guaranteed to converge to within any pre-specified tolerance of the optimal policy with a number of zero-order evaluations that is an explicit polynomial of the error tolerance, dimension, and curvature properties of the problem. Our analysis reveals some interesting differences between the settings of additive driving noise and random initialization, as well as the settings of one-point and two-point reward feedback. Our theory is corroborated by simulations of derivative-free methods in application to these systems. Along the way, we derive convergence rates for stochastic zero-order optimization algorithms when applied to a certain class of non-convex problems.

We consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple inverse covariance matrices from high-dimensional data consisting of distinct classes. An $ell_2$-penalized maximum likelihood approach is employed. The suggested approach is flexible and generic, incorporating several other $ell_2$-penalized estimators as special cases. In addition, the approach allows specification of target matrices through which prior knowledge may be incorporated and which can stabilize the estimation procedure in high-dimensional settings. The result is a targeted fused ridge estimator that is of use when the precision matrices of the constituent classes are believed to chiefly share the same structure while potentially differing in a number of locations of interest. It has many applications in (multi)factorial study designs. We focus on the graphical interpretation of precision matrices with the proposed estimator then serving as a basis for integrative or meta-analytic Gaussian graphical modeling. Situations are considered in which the classes are defined by data sets and subtypes of diseases. The performance of the proposed estimator in the graphical modeling setting is assessed through extensive simulation experiments. Its practical usability is illustrated by the differential network modeling of 12 large-scale gene expression data sets of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma subtypes. The estimator and its related procedures are incorporated into the R-package rags2ridges.

In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent factors (or features) within the building such as the number of individuals, the turning on and off of electrical devices, power surges, etc. These latent factors are usually present for a contiguous period of time before disappearing; further, multiple factors could be present at a time. This paper develops new probabilistic methodology and inference methods for random object generation influenced by latent features exhibiting temporal persistence. Every datum is associated with subsets of a potentially infinite number of hidden, persistent features that account for temporal dynamics in an observation. The ensuing class of dynamic models constructed by adapting the Indian Buffet Process — a probability measure on the space of random, unbounded binary matrices — finds use in a variety of applications arising in operations, signal processing, biomedicine, marketing, image analysis, etc. Illustrations using synthetic and real data are provided.

Consider an unknown smooth function $f: [0,1]^d ightarrow mathbb{R}$, and assume we are given $n$ noisy mod 1 samples of $f$, i.e., $y_i = (f(x_i) + eta_i) mod 1$, for $x_i in [0,1]^d$, where $eta_i$ denotes the noise. Given the samples $(x_i,y_i)_{i=1}^{n}$, our goal is to recover smooth, robust estimates of the clean samples $f(x_i) mod 1$. We formulate a natural approach for solving this problem, which works with angular embeddings of the noisy mod 1 samples over the unit circle, inspired by the angular synchronization framework. This amounts to solving a smoothness regularized least-squares problem -- a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP) -- where the variables are constrained to lie on the unit circle. Our proposed approach is based on solving its relaxation, which is a trust-region sub-problem and hence solvable efficiently. We provide theoretical guarantees demonstrating its robustness to noise for adversarial, as well as random Gaussian and Bernoulli noise models. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first such theoretical results for this problem. We demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of our proposed approach via extensive numerical simulations on synthetic data, along with a simple least-squares based solution for the unwrapping stage, that recovers the original samples of $f$ (up to a global shift). It is shown to perform well at high levels of noise, when taking as input the denoised modulo $1$ samples. Finally, we also consider two other approaches for denoising the modulo 1 samples that leverage tools from Riemannian optimization on manifolds, including a Burer-Monteiro approach for a semidefinite programming relaxation of our formulation. For the two-dimensional version of the problem, which has applications in synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), we are able to solve instances of real-world data with a million sample points in under 10 seconds, on a personal laptop.

We study bipartite community detection in networks, or more generally the network biclustering problem. We present a fast two-stage procedure based on spectral initialization followed by the application of a pseudo-likelihood classifier twice. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish the weak consistency of the procedure (i.e., the convergence of the misclassification rate to zero) under a general bipartite stochastic block model. We show that the procedure is optimal in the sense that it achieves the optimal convergence rate that is achievable by a biclustering oracle, adaptively over the whole class, up to constants. This is further formalized by deriving a minimax lower bound over a class of biclustering problems. The optimal rate we obtain sharpens some of the existing results and generalizes others to a wide regime of average degree growth, from sparse networks with average degrees growing arbitrarily slowly to fairly dense networks with average degrees of order $sqrt{n}$. As a special case, we recover the known exact recovery threshold in the $log n$ regime of sparsity. To obtain the consistency result, as part of the provable version of the algorithm, we introduce a sub-block partitioning scheme that is also computationally attractive, allowing for distributed implementation of the algorithm without sacrificing optimality. The provable algorithm is derived from a general class of pseudo-likelihood biclustering algorithms that employ simple EM type updates. We show the effectiveness of this general class by numerical simulations.

pyts is an open-source Python package for time series classification. This versatile toolbox provides implementations of many algorithms published in the literature, preprocessing functionalities, and data set loading utilities. pyts relies on the standard scientific Python packages numpy, scipy, scikit-learn, joblib, and numba, and is distributed under the BSD-3-Clause license. Documentation contains installation instructions, a detailed user guide, a full API description, and concrete self-contained examples.

We consider the standard model of distributed optimization of a sum of functions $F(mathbf z) = sum_{i=1}^n f_i(mathbf z)$, where node $i$ in a network holds the function $f_i(mathbf z)$. We allow for a harsh network model characterized by asynchronous updates, message delays, unpredictable message losses, and directed communication among nodes. In this setting, we analyze a modification of the Gradient-Push method for distributed optimization, assuming that (i) node $i$ is capable of generating gradients of its function $f_i(mathbf z)$ corrupted by zero-mean bounded-support additive noise at each step, (ii) $F(mathbf z)$ is strongly convex, and (iii) each $f_i(mathbf z)$ has Lipschitz gradients. We show that our proposed method asymptotically performs as well as the best bounds on centralized gradient descent that takes steps in the direction of the sum of the noisy gradients of all the functions $f_1(mathbf z), ldots, f_n(mathbf z)$ at each step.

We develop an encompassing framework for matching, covariate balancing, and doubly-robust methods for causal inference from observational data called generalized optimal matching (GOM). The framework is given by generalizing a new functional-analytical formulation of optimal matching, giving rise to the class of GOM methods, for which we provide a single unified theory to analyze tractability and consistency. Many commonly used existing methods are included in GOM and, using their GOM interpretation, can be extended to optimally and automatically trade off balance for variance and outperform their standard counterparts. As a subclass, GOM gives rise to kernel optimal matching (KOM), which, as supported by new theoretical and empirical results, is notable for combining many of the positive properties of other methods in one. KOM, which is solved as a linearly-constrained convex-quadratic optimization problem, inherits both the interpretability and model-free consistency of matching but can also achieve the $sqrt{n}$-consistency of well-specified regression and the bias reduction and robustness of doubly robust methods. In settings of limited overlap, KOM enables a very transparent method for interval estimation for partial identification and robust coverage. We demonstrate this in examples with both synthetic and real data.

Derivatives play an important role in bandwidth selection methods (e.g., plug-ins), data analysis and bias-corrected confidence intervals. Therefore, obtaining accurate derivative information is crucial. Although many derivative estimation methods exist, the majority require a fixed design assumption. In this paper, we propose an effective and fully data-driven framework to estimate the first and second order derivative in random design. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed derivative estimator, and also propose a fast selection method for the tuning parameters. The performance and flexibility of the method is illustrated via an extensive simulation study.

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a fundamental algorithm in stochastic optimization. Recent work by Zhang et al. (2017) presents an analysis for the hitting time of SGLD for the first and second order stationary points. The proof in Zhang et al. (2017) is a two-stage procedure through bounding the Cheeger's constant, which is rather complicated and leads to loose bounds. In this paper, using intuitions from stochastic differential equations, we provide a direct analysis for the hitting times of SGLD to the first and second order stationary points. Our analysis is straightforward. It only relies on basic linear algebra and probability theory tools. Our direct analysis also leads to tighter bounds comparing to Zhang et al. (2017) and shows the explicit dependence of the hitting time on different factors, including dimensionality, smoothness, noise strength, and step size effects. Under suitable conditions, we show that the hitting time of SGLD to first-order stationary points can be dimension-independent. Moreover, we apply our analysis to study several important online estimation problems in machine learning, including linear regression, matrix factorization, and online PCA.

We consider the problem of estimating the latent structure of a social network based on the observed information diffusion events, or cascades, where the observations for a given cascade consist of only the timestamps of infection for infected nodes but not the source of the infection. Most of the existing work on this problem has focused on estimating a diffusion matrix without any structural assumptions on it. In this paper, we propose a novel model based on the intuition that an information is more likely to propagate among two nodes if they are interested in similar topics which are also prominent in the information content. In particular, our model endows each node with an influence vector (which measures how authoritative the node is on each topic) and a receptivity vector (which measures how susceptible the node is for each topic). We show how this node-topic structure can be estimated from the observed cascades, and prove the consistency of the estimator. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the improved performance and better interpretability of our model compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Raj Kamal Maurya, Yogesh Mani Tripathi.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 2, 345--369.

Abstract:
We consider estimation of the multicomponent stress-strength reliability under progressive Type II censoring under the assumption that stress and strength variables follow Burr XII distributions with a common shape parameter. Maximum likelihood estimates of the reliability are obtained along with asymptotic intervals when common shape parameter may be known or unknown. Bayes estimates are also derived under the squared error loss function using different approximation methods. Further, we obtain exact Bayes and uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates of the reliability for the case common shape parameter is known. The highest posterior density intervals are also obtained. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to compare the performance of proposed estimates and present a discussion based on this study. Finally, two real data sets are analyzed for illustration purposes.

Mohd Arshad, Omer Abdalghani.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 167--182.

Abstract:
Suppose that $pi_{1},pi_{2},ldots ,pi_{k}$ be $k(geq2)$ independent exponential populations having unknown location parameters $mu_{1},mu_{2},ldots,mu_{k}$ and known scale parameters $sigma_{1},ldots,sigma_{k}$. Let $mu_{[k]}=max {mu_{1},ldots,mu_{k}}$. For selecting the population associated with $mu_{[k]}$, a class of selection rules (proposed by Arshad and Misra [ Statistical Papers 57 (2016) 605–621]) is considered. We consider the problem of estimating the location parameter $mu_{S}$ of the selected population under the criterion of the LINEX loss function. We consider three natural estimators $delta_{N,1},delta_{N,2}$ and $delta_{N,3}$ of $mu_{S}$, based on the maximum likelihood estimators, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) and minimum risk equivariant estimator (MREE) of $mu_{i}$’s, respectively. The uniformly minimum risk unbiased estimator (UMRUE) and the generalized Bayes estimator of $mu_{S}$ are derived. Under the LINEX loss function, a general result for improving a location-equivariant estimator of $mu_{S}$ is derived. Using this result, estimator better than the natural estimator $delta_{N,1}$ is obtained. We also shown that the estimator $delta_{N,1}$ is dominated by the natural estimator $delta_{N,3}$. Finally, we perform a simulation study to evaluate and compare risk functions among various competing estimators of $mu_{S}$.

Andreas Anastasiou, Robert E. Gaunt.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 136--149.

Abstract:
We use the delta method and Stein’s method to derive, under regularity conditions, explicit upper bounds for the distributional distance between the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a $d$-dimensional parameter and its asymptotic multivariate normal distribution. Our bounds apply in situations in which the MLE can be written as a function of a sum of i.i.d. $t$-dimensional random vectors. We apply our general bound to establish a bound for the multivariate normal approximation of the MLE of the normal distribution with unknown mean and variance.

Glaura C. Franco, Helio S. Migon, Marcos O. Prates.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 756--781.

Abstract:
Observation and parameter driven models are commonly used in the literature to analyse time series of counts. In this paper, we study the characteristics of a variety of models and point out the main differences and similarities among these procedures, concerning parameter estimation, model fitting and forecasting. Alternatively to the literature, all inference was performed under the Bayesian paradigm. The models are fitted with a latent AR($p$) process in the mean, which accounts for autocorrelation in the data. An extensive simulation study shows that the estimates for the covariate parameters are remarkably similar across the different models. However, estimates for autoregressive coefficients and forecasts of future values depend heavily on the underlying process which generates the data. A real data set of bankruptcy in the United States is also analysed.

Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 706--733.

Abstract:
Finite mixture models and their extensions to Markov mixture and mixture of experts models are very popular in analysing data of various kind. A challenge for these models is choosing the number of components based on marginal likelihoods. The present paper suggests two innovative, generic bridge sampling estimators of the marginal likelihood that are based on constructing balanced importance densities from the conditional densities arising during Gibbs sampling. The full permutation bridge sampling estimator is derived from considering all possible permutations of the mixture labels for a subset of these densities. For the double random permutation bridge sampling estimator, two levels of random permutations are applied, first to permute the labels of the MCMC draws and second to randomly permute the labels of the conditional densities arising during Gibbs sampling. Various applications show very good performance of these estimators in comparison to importance and to reciprocal importance sampling estimators derived from the same importance densities.

Xiufang Liu, Dehui Wang.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 3, 638--673.

Abstract:
This paper discusses a $p$th-order dependence-driven random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive time series model ($operatorname{DDRCINAR}(p)$). Stationarity and ergodicity properties are proved. Conditional least squares, weighted least squares and maximum quasi-likelihood are used to estimate the model parameters. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are presented. The performances of these estimators are investigated and compared via simulations. In certain regions of the parameter space, simulative analysis shows that maximum quasi-likelihood estimators perform better than the estimators of conditional least squares and weighted least squares in terms of the proportion of within-$Omega$ estimates. At last, the model is applied to two real data sets.

Rodrigo Citton P. dos Reis, Enrico A. Colosimo, Gustavo L. Gilardoni.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 374--396.

Abstract:
In the data analysis from multiple repairable systems, it is usual to observe both different truncation times and heterogeneity among the systems. Among other reasons, the latter is caused by different manufacturing lines and maintenance teams of the systems. In this paper, a hierarchical model is proposed for the statistical analysis of multiple repairable systems under different truncation times. A reparameterization of the power law process is proposed in order to obtain a quasi-conjugate bayesian analysis. An empirical Bayes approach is used to estimate model hyperparameters. The uncertainty in the estimate of these quantities are corrected by using a parametric bootstrap approach. The results are illustrated in a real data set of failure times of power transformers from an electric company in Brazil.

Emilia Athayde, Assis Azevedo, Michelli Barros, Víctor Leiva.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 301--328.

Abstract:
The Birnbaum–Saunders (BS) distribution has been largely studied and applied. A random variable with BS distribution is a transformation of another random variable with standard normal distribution. Generalized BS distributions are obtained when the normally distributed random variable is replaced by another symmetrically distributed random variable. This allows us to obtain a wide class of positively skewed models with lighter and heavier tails than the BS model. Its failure rate admits several shapes, including the unimodal case, with its change-point being able to be used for different purposes. For example, to establish the reduction in a dose, and then in the cost of the medical treatment. We analyze the failure rates of generalized BS distributions obtained by the logistic, normal and Student-t distributions, considering their shape and change-point, estimating them, evaluating their robustness, assessing their performance by simulations, and applying the results to real data from different areas.

Kushal K. Dey, Sourabh Bhattacharya.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 222--266.

Abstract:
Transformation based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) was proposed by Dutta and Bhattacharya ( Statistical Methodology 16 (2014) 100–116) as an efficient alternative to the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, especially in high dimensions. The main advantage of this algorithm is that it simultaneously updates all components of a high dimensional parameter using appropriate move types defined by deterministic transformation of a single random variable. This results in reduction in time complexity at each step of the chain and enhances the acceptance rate. In this paper, we first provide a brief review of the optimal scaling theory for various existing MCMC approaches, comparing and contrasting them with the corresponding TMCMC approaches.The optimal scaling of the simplest form of TMCMC, namely additive TMCMC , has been studied extensively for the Gaussian proposal density in Dey and Bhattacharya (2017a). Here, we discuss diffusion-based optimal scaling behavior of additive TMCMC for non-Gaussian proposal densities—in particular, uniform, Student’s $t$ and Cauchy proposals. Although we could not formally prove our diffusion result for the Cauchy proposal, simulation based results lead us to conjecture that at least the recipe for obtaining general optimal scaling and optimal acceptance rate holds for the Cauchy case as well. We also consider diffusion based optimal scaling of TMCMC when the target density is discontinuous. Such non-regular situations have been studied in the case of Random Walk Metropolis Hastings (RWMH) algorithm by Neal and Roberts ( Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 13 (2011) 583–601) using expected squared jumping distance (ESJD), but the diffusion theory based scaling has not been considered. We compare our diffusion based optimally scaled TMCMC approach with the ESJD based optimally scaled RWM with simulation studies involving several target distributions and proposal distributions including the challenging Cauchy proposal case, showing that additive TMCMC outperforms RWMH in almost all cases considered.

Alain Desgagné, Philippe Gagnon.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 205--221.

Abstract:
Whole robustness is a nice property to have for statistical models. It implies that the impact of outliers gradually vanishes as they approach plus or minus infinity. So far, the Bayesian literature provides results that ensure whole robustness for the location-scale model. In this paper, we make two contributions. First, we generalise the results to attain whole robustness in simple linear regression through the origin, which is a necessary step towards results for general linear regression models. We allow the variance of the error term to depend on the explanatory variable. This flexibility leads to the second contribution: we provide a simple Bayesian approach to robustly estimate finite population means and ratios. The strategy to attain whole robustness is simple since it lies in replacing the traditional normal assumption on the error term by a super heavy-tailed distribution assumption. As a result, users can estimate the parameters as usual, using the posterior distribution.

Ivana Ilić, Vladica M. Veličković.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 1, 192--203.

Abstract:
Financial returns are known to be nonnormal and tend to have fat-tailed distribution. Also, the dependence of large values in a stochastic process is an important topic in risk, insurance and finance. In the presence of missing values, we deal with the asymptotic properties of a simple “median” estimator of the tail index based on random variables with the heavy-tailed distribution function and certain dependence among the extremes. Weak consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are established. The estimator is a special case of a well-known estimator defined in Bacro and Brito [ Statistics & Decisions 3 (1993) 133–143]. The advantage of the estimator is its robustness against deviations and compared to Hill’s, it is less affected by the fluctuations related to the maximum of the sample or by the presence of outliers. Several examples are analyzed in order to support the proofs.

Caio L. N. Azevedo, Dalton F. Andrade

Source: Braz. J. Probab. Stat., Volume 24, Number 3, 415--433.

Abstract:
The nominal response model (NRM) was proposed by Bock [ Psychometrika 37 (1972) 29–51] in order to improve the latent trait (ability) estimation in multiple choice tests with nominal items. When the item parameters are known, expectation a posteriori or maximum a posteriori methods are commonly employed to estimate the latent traits, considering a standard symmetric normal distribution as the latent traits prior density. However, when this item set is presented to a new group of examinees, it is not only necessary to estimate their latent traits but also the population parameters of this group. This article has two main purposes: first, to develop a Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm to estimate both latent traits and population parameters concurrently. This algorithm comprises the Metropolis–Hastings within Gibbs sampling algorithm (MHWGS) proposed by Patz and Junker [ Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 24 (1999b) 346–366]. Second, to compare, in the latent trait recovering, the performance of this method with three other methods: maximum likelihood, expectation a posteriori and maximum a posteriori. The comparisons were performed by varying the total number of items (NI), the number of categories and the values of the mean and the variance of the latent trait distribution. The results showed that MHWGS outperforms the other methods concerning the latent traits estimation as well as it recoveries properly the population parameters. Furthermore, we found that NI accounts for the highest percentage of the variability in the accuracy of latent trait estimation.

Umberto Amato, Anestis Antoniadis, Italia De Feis.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 14, 32--70.

Abstract:
We present and compare some nonparametric estimation methods (wavelet and/or spline-based) designed to recover a one-dimensional piecewise-smooth regression function in both a fixed equidistant or not equidistant design regression model and a random design model. Wavelet methods are known to be very competitive in terms of denoising and compression, due to the simultaneous localization property of a function in time and frequency. However, boundary assumptions, such as periodicity or symmetry, generate bias and artificial wiggles which degrade overall accuracy. Simple methods have been proposed in the literature for reducing the bias at the boundaries. We introduce new ones based on adaptive combinations of two estimators. The underlying idea is to combine a highly accurate method for non-regular functions, e.g., wavelets, with one well behaved at boundaries, e.g., Splines or Local Polynomial. We provide some asymptotic optimal results supporting our approach. All the methods can handle data with a random design. We also sketch some generalization to the multidimensional setting. To study the performance of the proposed approaches we have conducted an extensive set of simulations on synthetic data. An interesting regression analysis of two real data applications using these procedures unambiguously demonstrates their effectiveness.

Si Cheng, Daniel J. Eck, Forrest W. Crawford.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 14, 1--31.

Abstract:
A finite set is “hidden” if its elements are not directly enumerable or if its size cannot be ascertained via a deterministic query. In public health, epidemiology, demography, ecology and intelligence analysis, researchers have developed a wide variety of indirect statistical approaches, under different models for sampling and observation, for estimating the size of a hidden set. Some methods make use of random sampling with known or estimable sampling probabilities, and others make structural assumptions about relationships (e.g. ordering or network information) between the elements that comprise the hidden set. In this review, we describe models and methods for learning about the size of a hidden finite set, with special attention to asymptotic properties of estimators. We study the properties of these methods under two asymptotic regimes, “infill” in which the number of fixed-size samples increases, but the population size remains constant, and “outfill” in which the sample size and population size grow together. Statistical properties under these two regimes can be dramatically different.

Didier Chauveau, David R. Hunter, Michael Levine.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 9, 1--31.

Abstract:
The conditional independence assumption for nonparametric multivariate finite mixture models, a weaker form of the well-known conditional independence assumption for random effects models for longitudinal data, is the subject of an increasing number of theoretical and algorithmic developments in the statistical literature. After presenting a survey of this literature, including an in-depth discussion of the all-important identifiability results, this article describes and extends an algorithm for estimation of the parameters in these models. The algorithm works for any number of components in three or more dimensions. It possesses a descent property and can be easily adapted to situations where the data are grouped in blocks of conditionally independent variables. We discuss how to adapt this algorithm to various location-scale models that link component densities, and we even adapt it to a particular class of univariate mixture problems in which the components are assumed symmetric. We give a bandwidth selection procedure for our algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm using a simulation study and two psychometric datasets.

Data-space inversion (DSI) and related procedures represent a family of methods applicable for data assimilation in subsurface flow settings. These methods differ from model-based techniques in that they provide only posterior predictions for quantities (time series) of interest, not posterior models with calibrated parameters. DSI methods require a large number of flow simulations to first be performed on prior geological realizations. Given observed data, posterior predictions can then be generated directly. DSI operates in a Bayesian setting and provides posterior samples of the data vector. In this work we develop and evaluate a new approach for data parameterization in DSI. Parameterization reduces the number of variables to determine in the inversion, and it maintains the physical character of the data variables. The new parameterization uses a recurrent autoencoder (RAE) for dimension reduction, and a long-short-term memory (LSTM) network to represent flow-rate time series. The RAE-based parameterization is combined with an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) for posterior generation. Results are presented for two- and three-phase flow in a 2D channelized system and a 3D multi-Gaussian model. The RAE procedure, along with existing DSI treatments, are assessed through comparison to reference rejection sampling (RS) results. The new DSI methodology is shown to consistently outperform existing approaches, in terms of statistical agreement with RS results. The method is also shown to accurately capture derived quantities, which are computed from variables considered directly in DSI. This requires correlation and covariance between variables to be properly captured, and accuracy in these relationships is demonstrated. The RAE-based parameterization developed here is clearly useful in DSI, and it may also find application in other subsurface flow problems.

This paper develops a general framework for analyzing asymptotics of $V$-statistics. Previous literature on limiting distribution mainly focuses on the cases when $n o infty$ with fixed kernel size $k$. Under some regularity conditions, we demonstrate asymptotic normality when $k$ grows with $n$ by utilizing existing results for $U$-statistics. The key in our approach lies in a mathematical reduction to $U$-statistics by designing an equivalent kernel for $V$-statistics. We also provide a unified treatment on variance estimation for both $U$- and $V$-statistics by observing connections to existing methods and proposing an empirically more accurate estimator. Ensemble methods such as random forests, where multiple base learners are trained and aggregated for prediction purposes, serve as a running example throughout the paper because they are a natural and flexible application of $V$-statistics.

We study the problem of parameter estimation for a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model defined as $dX_t=(mu+ heta X_t)dt+dG_t, tgeq0$ with unknown parameters $ heta>0$ and $muinR$, where $G$ is a Gaussian process. We provide least square-type estimators $widetilde{ heta}_T$ and $widetilde{mu}_T$ respectively for the drift parameters $ heta$ and $mu$ based on continuous-time observations ${X_t, tin[0,T]}$ as $T ightarrowinfty$.

Our aim is to derive some sufficient conditions on the driving Gaussian process $G$ in order to ensure that $widetilde{ heta}_T$ and $widetilde{mu}_T$ are strongly consistent, the limit distribution of $widetilde{ heta}_T$ is a Cauchy-type distribution and $widetilde{mu}_T$ is asymptotically normal. We apply our result to fractional Vasicek, subfractional Vasicek and bifractional Vasicek processes. In addition, this work extends the result of cite{EEO} studied in the case where $mu=0$.

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which extit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is straightforward to show that they have the same $mathcal{O}(1/sqrt{N})$ convergence rate as standard importance samplers, where $N$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples, the behaviour of adaptive importance samplers over the number of iterations has been left relatively unexplored. In this work, we investigate an adaptation strategy based on convex optimisation which leads to a class of adaptive importance samplers termed extit{optimised adaptive importance samplers} (OAIS). These samplers rely on the iterative minimisation of the $chi^2$-divergence between an exponential-family proposal and the target. The analysed algorithms are closely related to the class of adaptive importance samplers which minimise the variance of the weight function. We first prove non-asymptotic error bounds for the mean squared errors (MSEs) of these algorithms, which explicitly depend on the number of iterations and the number of samples together. The non-asymptotic bounds derived in this paper imply that when the target belongs to the exponential family, the $L_2$ errors of the optimised samplers converge to the optimal rate of $mathcal{O}(1/sqrt{N})$ and the rate of convergence in the number of iterations are explicitly provided. When the target does not belong to the exponential family, the rate of convergence is the same but the asymptotic $L_2$ error increases by a factor $sqrt{ ho^star} > 1$, where $ ho^star - 1$ is the minimum $chi^2$-divergence between the target and an exponential-family proposal.

When the response mechanism is believed to be not missing at random (NMAR), a valid analysis requires stronger assumptions on the response mechanism than standard statistical methods would otherwise require. Semiparametric estimators have been developed under the model assumptions on the response mechanism. In this paper, a new statistical test is proposed to guarantee model identifiability without using any instrumental variable. Furthermore, we develop optimal semiparametric estimation for parameters such as the population mean. Specifically, we propose two semiparametric optimal estimators that do not require any model assumptions other than the response mechanism. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are discussed. An extensive simulation study is presented to compare with some existing methods. We present an application of our method using Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey data.

The $p$-tensor Curie-Weiss model is a two-parameter discrete exponential family for modeling dependent binary data, where the sufficient statistic has a linear term and a term with degree $p geq 2$. This is a special case of the tensor Ising model and the natural generalization of the matrix Curie-Weiss model, which provides a convenient mathematical abstraction for capturing, not just pairwise, but higher-order dependencies. In this paper we provide a complete description of the limiting properties of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the natural parameters, given a single sample from the $p$-tensor Curie-Weiss model, for $p geq 3$, complementing the well-known results in the matrix ($p=2$) case (Comets and Gidas (1991)). Our results unearth various new phase transitions and surprising limit theorems, such as the existence of a 'critical' curve in the parameter space, where the limiting distribution of the ML estimates is a mixture with both continuous and discrete components. The number of mixture components is either two or three, depending on, among other things, the sign of one of the parameters and the parity of $p$. Another interesting revelation is the existence of certain 'special' points in the parameter space where the ML estimates exhibit a superefficiency phenomenon, converging to a non-Gaussian limiting distribution at rate $N^{frac{3}{4}}$. We discuss how these results can be used to construct confidence intervals for the model parameters and, as a byproduct of our analysis, obtain limit theorems for the sample mean, which provide key insights into the statistical properties of the model.

This paper considers the problem of estimation of the Fisher information for location from a random sample of size $n$. First, an estimator proposed by Bhattacharya is revisited and improved convergence rates are derived. Second, a new estimator, termed a clipped estimator, is proposed. Superior upper bounds on the rates of convergence can be shown for the new estimator compared to the Bhattacharya estimator, albeit with different regularity conditions. Third, both of the estimators are evaluated for the practically relevant case of a random variable contaminated by Gaussian noise. Moreover, using Brown's identity, which relates the Fisher information and the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) in Gaussian noise, two corresponding consistent estimators for the MMSE are proposed. Simulation examples for the Bhattacharya estimator and the clipped estimator as well as the MMSE estimators are presented. The examples demonstrate that the clipped estimator can significantly reduce the required sample size to guarantee a specific confidence interval compared to the Bhattacharya estimator.

This paper studies a service system in which arriving customers are provided with information about the delay they will experience. Based on this information they decide to wait for service or to leave the system. The main objective is to estimate the customers' patience-level distribution and the corresponding potential arrival rate, using knowledge of the actual workload process only. We cast the system as a queueing model, so as to evaluate the corresponding likelihood function. Estimating the unknown parameters relying on a maximum likelihood procedure, we prove strong consistency and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error. Several applications and extensions of the method are discussed. In particular, we indicate how our method generalizes to a multi-server setting. The performance of our approach is assessed through a series of numerical experiments. By fitting parameters of hyperexponential and generalized-hyperexponential distributions our method provides a robust estimation framework for any continuous patience-level distribution.

As an important type of reinforcement learning algorithms, actor-critic (AC) and natural actor-critic (NAC) algorithms are often executed in two ways for finding optimal policies. In the first nested-loop design, actor's one update of policy is followed by an entire loop of critic's updates of the value function, and the finite-sample analysis of such AC and NAC algorithms have been recently well established. The second two time-scale design, in which actor and critic update simultaneously but with different learning rates, has much fewer tuning parameters than the nested-loop design and is hence substantially easier to implement. Although two time-scale AC and NAC have been shown to converge in the literature, the finite-sample convergence rate has not been established. In this paper, we provide the first such non-asymptotic convergence rate for two time-scale AC and NAC under Markovian sampling and with actor having general policy class approximation. We show that two time-scale AC requires the overall sample complexity at the order of $mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-2.5}log^3(epsilon^{-1}))$ to attain an $epsilon$-accurate stationary point, and two time-scale NAC requires the overall sample complexity at the order of $mathcal{O}(epsilon^{-4}log^2(epsilon^{-1}))$ to attain an $epsilon$-accurate global optimal point. We develop novel techniques for bounding the bias error of the actor due to dynamically changing Markovian sampling and for analyzing the convergence rate of the linear critic with dynamically changing base functions and transition kernel.

We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class of semiparametric Markov diffusion models with parametric dynamic copulas and nonparametric marginal distributions. We provide primitive conditions for the identification of the UPD parameters together with the unknown transformations from discrete samples. Likelihood-based estimators of both parametric and nonparametric components are developed and we analyze the asymptotic properties of these. Kernel-based drift and diffusion estimators are also proposed and shown to be normally distributed in large samples. A simulation study investigates the finite sample performance of our estimators in the context of modelling US short-term interest rates. We also present a simple application of the proposed method for modelling the CBOE volatility index data.

This paper deals with robust marginal estimation under a general regression model when missing data occur in the response and also in some of covariates. The target is a marginal location parameter which is given through an $M-$functional. To obtain robust Fisher--consistent estimators, properly defined marginal distribution function estimators are considered. These estimators avoid the bias due to missing values by assuming a missing at random condition. Three methods are considered to estimate the marginal distribution function which allows to obtain the $M-$location of interest: the well-known inverse probability weighting, a convolution--based method that makes use of the regression model and an augmented inverse probability weighting procedure that prevents against misspecification. The robust proposed estimators and the classical ones are compared through a numerical study under different missing models including clean and contaminated samples. We illustrate the estimators behaviour under a nonlinear model. A real data set is also analysed.