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Moving towards multicenter therapeutic trials in ALS: feasibility of data pooling using different TSPO positron emission tomography (PET) radioligands.

Rationale: Neuroinflammation has been implicated in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) and can be visualized using translocator protein (TSPO) radioligands. To become a reliable pharmacodynamic biomarker for ALS multicenter trials, some challenges have to be overcome. We aimed to investigate whether multicenter data pooling of different TSPO tracers (11C-PBR28 and 18F-DPA714) is feasible, after validation of an established 11C-PBR28 PET pseudoreference analysis technique for 18F-DPA714. Methods: 7 ALS-Belgium (58.9±6.7 years,5M) and 8 HV-Belgium (52.1±15.2 years,3M); and 7 ALS-US (53.4±9.8 years,5M) and 7 HV-US (54.6±9.6 years,4M) from a previously published study (1) underwent dynamic 18F-DPA714 (Leuven, Belgium) or 11C-PBR28 (Boston, US) PET-MR scans. For 18F-DPA714, volume of distribution (VT) maps were compared to standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR)40-60 calculated using the pseudoreference regions (1)cerebellum, (2)occipital cortex, and (3)whole brain without ventricles (WB-ventricles). Also for 11C-PBR28, SUVR60-90 using WB-ventricles were calculated. Results: In line with previous studies, increased 18F-DPA714 uptake (17.0±5.6%) in primary motor cortices was observed in ALS, as measured by both VT and SUVR40-60 approaches. Highest sensitivity was found for SUVRWB-ventricles (average cluster 21.6±0.1%). 18F-DPA714 VT ratio and SUVR40-60 results were highly correlated (r>0.8, p<0.001). A similar pattern of increased uptake (average cluster 20.5±0.5%) in primary motor cortices was observed in ALS with 11C-PBR28 using the SUVRWB-ventricles. Analysis of the 18F-DPA714 and 11C-PBR28 data together, resulted in a more extensive pattern of significant increased glial activation in the bilateral primary motor cortices. Conclusion: The same pseudoreference region analysis technique for 11C-PBR28 PET imaging can be extended towards 18F-DPA714 PET. Therefore, in ALS, standardized analysis across these two tracers enables pooling of TSPO PET data across multiple centers and increase power of TSPO as biomarker for future therapeutic trials.




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Lesion detection and administered activity




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FDG-PET assessment of malignant pleural mesothelioma: Total Lesion volume and Total Lesion Glycolysis; the central role of volume.

Cancer Survival is related to tumor volume. FDG PET measurement of tumor volume holds promise but is not yet a clinical tool. Measurements come in two forms: the total lesion volume (TLV) based on the number of voxels in the tumor and secondly the total lesion glycolysis (TLG) which is the TLV multiplied by the average SUL per voxel of the tumor (SUL is the standardize uptake value normalized for lean mass). In this study we measured tumor volume in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). METHODS: A threshold-based program in IDL was developed to measure tumor volume in FDG PET images. 19 patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) were studied before and after two cycles (6 weeks) of chemo-immunotherapy. Measurements included the total lesion volume (TLV), Total Lesion Glycolysis (TLG), the sum of the SULs in the tumor (SUL- total), a measure of total FDG uptake, and the average SUL per voxel. RESULTS: Baseline MPM volumes (TLV) ranged from 11 to 2610 cc. TLG values ranged from 32 to 8552 SUL-cc and were strongly correlated with TLV. While tumor volumes ranged over 3 orders of magnitude, the average SUL per voxel, SUL-average, stayed within a narrow range of 2.4 to 5.3 units. Thus, TLV was the major component of TLG while SUL-average was a minor component and was essentially constant. Further evaluation of SUL-average showed that in this cohort it’s two components SUL-total and tumor volume changed in parallel and were strongly correlated, r= 0.99, p<.01. Thus, whether the tumors were large or small, the FDG uptake as measured by SUL-total was proportional to the total tumor volume. Conclusion: TLG equals TLV multiplied by the average SUL per voxel, essentially TLV multiplied by a constant. Thus TLG, commonly considered a measure of "metabolic activity" in tumors, is also in this cohort a measure of tumor volume. The constancy of SUL per voxel is due to FDG uptake being proportional to tumor volume. Thus, in this study, the FDG uptake was also a measure of volume.




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Biodistribution of a CD3/EpCAM bispecific T-cell engager is driven by the CD3 arm

BiTE® (Bispecific T-cell engager) molecules are designed to engage and activate cytotoxic T-cells to kill tumor cells. Little is known about their biodistribution in immunocompetent settings. To explore their pharmacokinetics and the role of the immune cells, BiTE molecules were radiolabeled with positron emission tomography (PET) isotope zirconium-89 (89Zr) and studied in immunocompetent and immunodeficient mouse models. PET images and ex-vivo biodistribution in immunocompetent mice with 89Zr-muS110, targeting mouse CD3 (Kd = 2.9 nM) and mouse EpCAM (Kd = 21 nM), and 89Zr-hyS110, targeting only mouse CD3 (Kd = 2.9 nM), showed uptake in tumor, spleen and other lymphoid organs, while the human-specific control BiTE 89Zr-AMG 110 showed similar tumor uptake but lacked spleen uptake. 89Zr-muS110 spleen uptake was lower in immunodeficient than in immunocompetent mice. After repeated administration of non-radiolabeled muS110 to immunocompetent mice 89Zr-muS110 uptake in spleen, and other lymphoid tissues, decreased and was comparable to uptake in immunodeficient mice, indicating saturation of CD3 binding sites. Autoradiography and immunohistochemistry demonstrated colocalization of 89Zr-muS110 and 89Zr-hyS110 with CD3-positive T-cells in the tumor and spleen but not with EpCAM expression. Also, uptake in the duodenum correlated with a high incidence of T-cells. This study shows that in immunocompetent mice the BiTE 89Zr-muS110 distribution is predominantly based on its high affinity CD3 binding arm. Significance: 89Zr-muS110 biodistribution is mainly dependent on the T-cell targeting arm with limited contribution of its second arm, targeting EpCAM. These findings highlight the need for extensive biodistribution studies of novel bispecific constructs as results might have implications for their respective drug development and clinical translation.




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The Changing Face of Nuclear Cardiology: Guiding Cardiovascular Care towards Molecular Medicine

Radionuclide imaging of myocardial perfusion, function, and viability has been established for decades and remains a robust, evidence-based and broadly available means for clinical workup and therapeutic guidance in ischemic heart disease. Yet, powerful alternative modalities have emerged for this purpose, and their growth has resulted in increasing competition. But the potential of the tracer principle goes beyond the assessment of physiology and function, towards the interrogation of biology and molecular pathways. This is a unique selling point of radionuclide imaging, which has been under-recognized in cardiovascular medicine until recently. Now, molecular imaging methods for the detection of myocardial infiltration, device infection and cardiovascular inflammation are successfully gaining clinical acceptance. This is further strengthened by the symbiotic quest of cardiac imaging and therapy for an increasing implementation of molecular-targeted procedures, where specific therapeutic interventions require specific diagnostic guidance towards the most suitable candidates. This review will summarize the current advent of clinical cardiovascular molecular imaging and highlight its transformative contribution to the evolution of cardiovascular therapy beyond mechanical interventions and broad "blockbuster" medication, towards a future of novel, individualized molecular targeted and molecular imaging-guided therapies.




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Factors predicting metastatic disease in 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET positive osseous lesions in prostate cancer

Bone is the most common site of distant metastatic spread in prostate adenocarcinoma. Prostate-specific membrane antigen uptake has been described in both benign and malignant bone lesions, which can lead to false-positive findings on 68Ga-prostate-specific membrane antigen-11 positron emission tomography (68Ga-PSMA-11 PET). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET for osseous prostate cancer metastases and improve bone uptake interpretation using semi-quantitative metrics. METHODS: 56 prostate cancer patients (18 pre-prostatectomy, 38 biochemical recurrence) who underwent 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI or PET/CT examinations with osseous PSMA-ligand uptake were included in the study. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively by board-certified nuclear radiologists to determine true or false positivity based on a composite endpoint. For each avid osseous lesion, biological volume, size, PSMA-RADS rating, maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), and ratio of lesion SUVmax to liver, blood pool, and background bone SUVmax were measured. Differences between benign and malignant lesions were evaluated for statistical significance, and cut-off values for these parameters were determined to maximize diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: Among 56 participants, 13 patients (22.8%) had false-positive osseous 68Ga-PSMA-11 findings and 43 patients (76.8%) had true-positive osseous 68Ga-PSMA-11 findings. Twenty-two patients (39%) had 1 osseous lesion, 18 (32%) had 2-4 lesions, and 16 (29%) had 5 or more lesions. Cut-off values resulting in statistically significant (p<0.005) differences between benign and malignant lesions were: PSMA-RADS ≥4, SUVmax ≥4.1, SUVmax ratio of lesion to blood pool ≥2.11, to liver ≥0.55, and to bone ≥4.4. These measurements corresponded to lesion-based 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET lesion detection rate for malignancy of 80%, 93%, 89%, 21%, 89%, and a specificity of 73%, 73%, 73%, 93%, 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: PSMA-RADS rating, SUVmax, and SUVmax ratio of lesion to blood pool can help differentiate benign from malignant lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET. SUVmax ratio to blood pool above 2.2 is a reasonable parameter to support image interpretation and presented superior lesion detection rate and specificity when compared to visual interpretation by PSMA RADS. These parameters hold clinical value by improving diagnostic accuracy for metastatic prostate cancer on 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI and PET/CT.




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CXCR4-targeted positron emission tomography imaging of central nervous system B-cell lymphoma

C-X-C chemokine receptor 4 is a transmembrane chemokine receptor involved in growth, survival, and dissemination of cancer, including aggressive B-cell lymphoma. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the standard imaging technology for central nervous system involvement of B-cell lymphoma and provides high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Therefore, novel molecular and functional imaging strategies are urgently required. Methods: In this proof-of-concept study, 11 patients with lymphoma of the CNS (CNSL, n = 8 primary and n = 3 secondary involvement) were imaged with the CXCR4-directed positron emission tomography (PET) tracer 68Ga-Pentixafor. To evaluate the predictive value of this imaging modality, treatment response, as determined by MRI, was correlated with quantification of CXCR4 expression by 68Ga-Pentixafor PET in vivo before initiation of treatment in 7 of 11 patients. Results: 68Ga-Pentixafor-PET showed excellent contrast characteristics to the surrounding brain parenchyma in all patients with active disease. Furthermore, initial CXCR4 uptake determined by PET correlated with subsequent treatment response as assessed by MRI. Conclusion: 68Ga-Pentixafor-PET represents a novel diagnostic tool for central nervous system lymphoma with potential implications for theranostic approaches as well as response and risk assessment.




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Targeting Fibroblast Activation Protein:Radiosynthesis and Preclinical Evaluation of an 18F-labeled FAP Inhibitor

Fibroblast activation protein (FAP) has emerged as an interesting molecular target used in the imaging and therapy of various types of cancers. Gallium-68–labeled chelator-linked FAP inhibitors (FAPIs) have been successfully applied to positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of various tumor types. To broaden the spectrum of applicable PET tracers for extended imaging studies of FAP-dependent diseases, we herein report the radiosynthesis and preclinical evaluation of an 18F–labeled glycosylated FAP inhibitor ([18F]FGlc-FAPI). Methods: An alkyne-bearing precursor was synthesized and subjected to click chemistry–based radiosynthesis of [18F]FGlc-FAPI by two-step 18F-fluoroglycosylation. FAP-expressing HT1080hFAP cells were used to study competitive binding to FAP, cellular uptake, internalization, and efflux of [18F]FGlc-FAPI in vitro. Biodistribution studies and in vivo small animal PET studies of [18F]FGlc-FAPI compared to [68Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 were conducted in nude mice bearing HT1080hFAP tumors or U87MG xenografts. Results: [18F]FGlc-FAPI was synthesized with a 15% radioactivity yield and a high radiochemical purity of >99%. In HT1080hFAP cells, [18F]FGlc-FAPI showed specific uptake, a high internalized fraction, and low cellular efflux. Compared to FAPI-04 (IC50 = 32 nM), the glycoconjugate, FGlc-FAPI (IC50 = 167 nM), showed slightly lower affinity for FAP in vitro, while plasma protein binding was higher for [18F]FGlc-FAPI. Biodistribution studies revealed significant hepatobiliary excretion of [18F]FGlc-FAPI; however, small animal PET studies in HT1080hFAP xenografts showed higher specific tumor uptake of [18F]FGlc-FAPI (4.5 % injected dose per gram of tissue [ID/g]) compared to [68Ga]Ga-FAPI-04 (2 %ID/g). In U87MG tumor–bearing mice, both tracers showed similar tumor uptake, but [18F]FGlc-FAPI showed a higher tumor retention. Interestingly, [18F]FGlc-FAPI demonstrated high specific uptake in bone structures and joints. Conclusion: [18F]FGlc-FAPI is an interesting candidate for translation to the clinic, taking advantage of the longer half-life and physical imaging properties of F-18. The availability of [18F]FGlc-FAPI may allow extended PET studies of FAP-related diseases, such as cancer, but also arthritis, heart diseases, or pulmonary fibrosis.




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Semi-automatically quantified tumor volume using Ga-68-PSMA-11-PET as biomarker for survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer

Prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA) targeting Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is becoming the reference standard for prostate cancer (PC) staging, especially in advanced disease. Yet, the implications of PSMA-PET derived whole-body tumor volume for overall survival are poorly elucidated to date. This might be due to the fact that (semi-) automated quantification of whole-body tumor volume as PSMA-PET biomarker is an unmet clinical challenge. Therefore, a novel semi-automated software is proposed and evaluated by the present study, which enables the semi-automated quantification of PSMA-PET biomarkers such as whole-body tumor volume. Methods: The proposed quantification is implemented as a research prototype (MI Whole Body Analysis Suite, v1.0, Siemens Medical Solutions USA, Inc., Knoxville, TN). PSMA accumulating foci were automatically segmented by a percental threshold (50% of local SUVmax). Neural networks were trained to segment organs in PET-CT acquisitions (training CTs: 8,632, validation CTs: 53). Thereby, PSMA foci within organs of physiologic PSMA uptake were semi-automatically excluded from the analysis. Pretherapeutic PSMA-PET-CTs of 40 consecutive patients treated with 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy were evaluated in this analysis. The volumetric whole-body tumor volume (PSMATV50), SUVmax, SUVmean and other whole-body imaging biomarkers were calculated for each patient. Semi-automatically derived results were compared with manual readings in a sub-cohort (by one nuclear medicine physician using syngo.MM Oncology software, Siemens Healthineers, Knoxville, TN). Additionally, an inter-observer evaluation of the semi-automated approach was performed in a sub-cohort (by two nuclear medicine physicians). Results: Manually and semi automatically derived PSMA metrics were highly correlated (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001). The inter-observer agreement of the semi-automated workflow was also high (PSMATV50: R2=1.000; p<0.001; ICC=1.000; SUVmax: R2=0.988; p<0.001; ICC=0.997). PSMATV50 [ml] was a significant predictor of overall survival (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006, P = 0.002) and remained so in a multivariate regression including other biomarkers (HR: 1.004; 95%CI: 1.001-1.006 P = 0.004). Conclusion: PSMATV50 is a promising PSMA-PET biomarker that is reproducible and easily quantified by the proposed semi-automated software. Moreover, PSMATV50 is a significant predictor of overall survival in patients with advanced prostate cancer that receive 177Lu-PSMA-617 therapy.




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Radioiodine Ablation of Remaining Thyroid Lobe in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Treated by Lobectomy. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Purpose: We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting the performance of radioactive iodine therapy (131-I therapy) in differentiating thyroid cancer (DTC) patients requiring a completion treatment following lobectomy. We also evaluated the response to 131-I therapy according to 2015ATA guidelines and the adverse events. Methods: A specific search strategy was designed to find articles evaluating the use of I-131 in patients with evidence of DTC after lobectomy. PubMed, CENTRAL, Scopus and Web of Science were searched. The search was updated until January 2020, without language restriction. Data were cross-checked and any discrepancy discussed. A proportion meta-analysis (with 95%CI) was performed using the random-effects model. Meta-regressions on I-131 success were attempted. Results: The pooled success ablation rate was 69% with better results in patients receiving a single administration of about 3.7 GBq; high heterogeneity was found (I2 85%), and publication bias was absent (Egger test: P = 0.57). Incomplete structural responses were recorded in only 14 of 695 (2%) patients enrolled in our analysis. Incomplete biochemical responses were observed in 8 to 24% of patients, with higher rates (24%) in patients receiving low radioiodine activities (~1.1 GBq) and lower rates (from 8 to 18%) in patients receiving higher activities of radioiodine (~3.7 Gbq). Neck pain due to thyroiditis was reported in up to 18% of patients but, in most cases, symptoms resolved after oral paracetamol or a short course of prednisone. Conclusion: Lobar ablation with 131-I is effective especially when high 131I activities are used. However, the rate of incomplete biochemical response to initial treatment appears to be slightly higher than the classical scheme of initial treatment of DTC. "Radioisotopic lobectomy" should be considered for patients with low-to-intermediate risk DTC requiring completion treatment after lobectomy due to specific individual risk factors and/or patient’s preferences.




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Yttrium-90 Radioembolization: Telemedicine during COVID-19 outbreak, opportunity for prime time.




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The Impact of Radiobiologically-Informed Dose Prescription on the Clinical Benefit of Yttrium-90 SIRT in Colorectal Cancer Patients

The purpose of this study was to establish the dose-response relationship of selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), when informed by radiobiological sensitivity parameters derived from mCRC cell lines exposed to yttrium-90 (90Y). Methods: 23 mCRC patients with liver metastases refractory to chemotherapy were included. 90Y bremsstrahlung SPECT images were transformed into dose maps assuming the local dose deposition method. Baseline and follow-up CT scans were segmented to derive liver and tumor volumes. Mean, median, and D70 (minimum dose to 70% of tumor volume) values determined from dose maps were correlated with change in tumor volume and vRECIST response using linear and logistic regression, respectively. Radiosensitivity parameters determined by clonogenic assays of mCRC cell lines HT-29 and DLD-1 after exposure to 90Y or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT; 6MV photons) were used in biological effective dose (BED) calculations. Results: Mean administered radioactivity was 1469±428 MBq (847-2185 MBq), achieving a mean radiation absorbed tumor dose of 35.5±9.4 Gy and mean normal liver dose of 26.4±6.8 Gy. A 1.0 Gy increase in mean, median, and D70 absorbed dose was associated with reduction in tumor volume of 1.8%, 1.8%, and 1.5%, respectively, and increased probability of vRECIST response (odds ratio: 1.09, 1.09, and 1.10 respectively). Threshold mean, median and D70 doses for response were 48.3, 48.8, and 41.8 Gy respectively. EBRT-equivalent BEDs for 90Y are up to 50% smaller than those calculated by applying protraction-corrected radiobiological parameters derived from EBRT alone. Conclusion: Dosimetric studies have assumed equivalence between 90Y SIRT and EBRT, leading to inflation of BED for SIRT and possible under-treatment. Radiobiological parameters for 90Y were applied to a BED model, providing a calculation method that has the potential to improve assessment of tumor control.




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Reshaping the amyloid buildup curve in Alzheimer's disease? - Partial volume effect correction of longitudinal amyloid PET data

It was hypothesized that the brain β-amyloid buildup curve plateaus at an early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease (AD) stage. Atrophy-related partial volume effects (PVEs) degrade signal in hot-spot imaging techniques, such as amyloid positron emission tomography (PET). This longitudinal analysis of amyloid-sensitive PET data investigated the shape of the β-amyloid curve in AD applying PVE correction (PVEC). We analyzed baseline and 2-year follow-up data of 216 symptomatic individuals on the AD continuum (positive amyloid status) enrolled in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (17 AD dementia, 199 mild cognitive impairment), including 18F-florbetapir PET, magnetic resonance imaging and mini mental state examination (MMSE) scores. For PVEC, the modified Müller-Gärtner method was performed. Compared to non-PVE-corrected data, PVE-corrected data yielded significantly higher regional and composite standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) changes over time (P=0.0002 for composite SUVRs). Longitudinal SUVR changes in relation to MMSE decreases showed a significantly higher slope of the regression line in the PVE-corrected as compared to the non-PVE-corrected PET data (F=7.1, P=0.008). These PVEC results indicate that the β-amyloid buildup curve does not plateau at an early symptomatic disease stage. A further evaluation of the impact of PVEC on the in-vivo characterization of time-dependent AD pathology, including the reliable assessment and comparison of other amyloid tracers, is warranted.




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Molecular imaging of PD-L1 expression and dynamics with the adnectin-based PET tracer 18F-BMS-986192

18F-BMS-986192, an adnectin-based human programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) tracer, was developed to non-invasively determine whole-body PD-L1 expression by positron emission tomography (PET). We evaluated usability of 18F-BMS-986192 PET to detect different PD-L1 expression levels and therapy-induced changes of PD-L1 expression in tumors. Methods: In vitro binding assays with 18F-BMS-986192 were performed in human tumor cell lines with different total cellular and membrane PD-L1 protein expression levels. Subsequently, PET imaging was executed in immunodeficient mice xenografted with these cell lines. Mice were treated with interferon gamma (IFN) intraperitoneally for 3 days or with the mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK1/2) inhibitor selumetinib by oral gavage for 24 hours. Thereafter 18F-BMS-986192 was administered intravenously, followed by a 60-minute dynamic PET scan. Tracer uptake was expressed as percentage injected dose per gram tissue (%ID/g). Tissues were collected to evaluate ex vivo tracer biodistribution and to perform flow cytometric, Western blot, and immunohistochemical tumor analyses. Results: 18F-BMS-986192 uptake reflected PD-L1 membrane levels in tumor cell lines, and tumor tracer uptake in mice was associated with PD-L1 expression measured immunohistochemically. In vitro IFN treatment increased PD-L1 expression in the tumor cell lines and caused up to 12-fold increase in tracer binding. In vivo, IFN did neither affect PD-L1 tumor expression measured immunohistochemically nor 18F-BMS-986192 tumor uptake. In vitro, selumetinib downregulated cellular and membrane levels of PD-L1 of tumor cells by 50% as measured by Western blotting and flow cytometry. In mice, selumetinib lowered cellular, but not membrane PD-L1 levels of tumors and consequently no treatment-induced change in 18F-BMS-986192 tumor uptake was observed. Conclusion: 18F-BMS-986192 PET imaging allows detection of membrane-expressed PD-L1, as soon as 60 minutes after tracer injection. The tracer can discriminate a range of tumor cell PD-L1 membrane expression levels.




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177Lu-EB-PSMA radioligand therapy with escalating doses in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

Purpose: This study is designed to assess the safety and therapeutic response to 177Lu-EB-PSMA treatment with escalating doses in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Methods: With institutional review board approval and informed consent, patients were randomly divided into three groups: Group A (n = 10) were treated with 1.18 ± 0.09 GBq/dose of 177Lu-EB-PSMA. Group B (n = 10) were treated with 2.12 ± 0.19 GBq/dose of 177Lu-EB-PSMA. Group C (n = 8) were treated with 3.52 ± 0.58 GBq/dose of 177Lu-EB-PSMA. Eligible patients received up to three cycles of 177Lu-EB-PSMA therapy, at eight-week intervals. Results: Due to disease progression or bone marrow suppression, 4 out of 10, 5 out of 10, and 5 out of 10 patients completed three cycles therapy as planned in Groups A, B, and C, respectively. The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response was correlated with treatment dose, with PSA disease control rates in Group B (70%) and C (75%) being higher than that in Group A (10%) (P = 0.007), but no correlation between Group B and Group C was found. 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT showed response in all the treatment groups, however, there was no significant difference between the three groups. Hematologic toxicity study found that platelets in Group B and Group C decreased more than those in Group A, and that Grade 4 thrombocytopenia occurred in 2 (25.0%) patients in Group C. No serious nephritic or hepatic side effects were observed. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that 2.12 GBq/dose of 177Lu-EB-PSMA seems to be safe and adequate in tumor treatment. Further investigations with increased number of patients are warranted.




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NEMESIS: Non-inferiority, Individual Patient Meta-analysis of Selective Internal Radiation Therapy with Yttrium-90 Resin Microspheres versus Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

In randomized clinical trials (RCTs), no survival benefit has been observed for selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) over sorafenib in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC). This study aimed to assess by means of a meta-analysis whether overall survival (OS) with SIRT, as monotherapy or followed by sorafenib, is non-inferior to sorafenib, and compare safety profiles for patients with aHCC. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library up to February 2019 to identify RCTs comparing SIRT as monotherapy, or followed by sorafenib, to sorafenib monotherapy among patients with aHCC. The main outcomes were OS and frequency of treatment-related severe adverse events (AEs grade ≥3). The per-protocol population was the primary analysis population. A non-inferiority margin of 1.08 in terms of hazard ratio (HR) was pre-specified for the upper boundary of 95% confidence interval (CI) for OS. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed. Results: Three RCTs, involving 1,243 patients, comparing sorafenib with SIRT (SIRveNIB and SARAH) or SIRT followed by sorafenib (SORAMIC), were included. After randomization, 411/635 (64.7%) patients allocated to SIRT and 522/608 (85.8%) allocated to sorafenib completed the studies without major protocol deviations. Median OS with SIRT, whether or not followed by sorafenib, was non-inferior to sorafenib (10.2 and 9.2 months, [HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.78–1.05]). Treatment-related severe adverse events were reported in 149/515 patients (28.9%) who received SIRT and 249/575 (43.3%) who received sorafenib only (p<0.01). Conclusion: SIRT as initial therapy for aHCC is non-inferior to sorafenib in terms of OS, and offers a better safety profile.




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Unexplained Hyperthyroglobulinemia in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Patients Indicates Radioiodine Adjuvant Therapy: A Prospective Multicenter Study

Background: The management for totally thyroidectomized differentiated thyroid cancer (TT-DTC) patients with unexplained hyperthyroglobulinemia remains indeterminate due to evidence scarcity. This multicenter study aimed at prospectively evaluating the response to radioiodine (131I) adjuvant therapy (RAT) and its potential role in risk stratification and causal clarification. Methods: TT-DTC patients with stimulated serum thyroglobulin (Tgoff) levels > 10 ng/mL but no structurally evident disease were consecutively enrolled in five tertiary care institutions. After the administration of 5.55 GBq of 131I, the risk of presence of persistent/recurrent/metastatic DTC (prmDTC) was compared to that before RAT. The causes of hyperthyroglobulinemia were explored and the response to RAT was assessed 6-12 months post RAT. The change in suppressed thyroglobulin (Tgon) level was reported. Results: A cohort of 254 subjects with a median Tgoff of 27.1 ng/mL was enrolled for the analyses. Immediately after RAT, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk were identified in 5.9%, 88.6%, and 5.5% patients, respectively, with no significant difference in risk stratification compared with that before RAT (P = 0.952). During the follow-up (median, 10.6 months), hyperthyroglobulinemia was ultimately attributed to thyroid remnant, biochemical disease, and structural/functional disease in 17.3%, 54.3%, and 28.3% of subjects, respectively. In addition, excellent, indeterminate, biochemical incomplete, and structural/functional incomplete responses were achieved in 18.1%, 27.2%, 36.2%, and 18.5% of patients, respectively. Notably, distribution for either cause of hyperthyroglobulinemia or response to RAT was comparable among the three postoperative risk groups. Tgon levels in patients who merely received RAT declined significantly over time. Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that over 90% of TT-DTC patients with unexplained hyperthyroglobulinemia are stratified as intermediate-high risk, and RAT using 5.55 GBq of 131I reveals biochemical/functional/structural disease and yields non-structural/functional incomplete response in more than 80% patients, suggesting TT-DTC patients with unexplained hyperthyroglobulinemia as explicit candidates for RAT.




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Receptor-targeted photodynamic therapy of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor positive lesions

Treatment of hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia is challenging. Surgical treatment of insulinomas and focal lesions in congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI) is invasive and carries major risks of morbidity. Medication to treat nesidioblastosis and diffuse CHI has varying efficacy and causes significant side effects. Here, we describe a novel method for therapy of hyperinsulinemic hyperglycemia, highly selectively killing beta cells by targeted photodynamic therapy (tPDT) with exendin-4-IRDye700DX, targeting the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (GLP-1R). A competitive binding assay was performed using Chinese hamster lung (CHL) cells transfected with the GLP-1R. The efficacy and specificity of tPDT with exendin-4-IRDye700DX was examined in vitro in cells with different levels of GLP-1R expression. Tracer biodistribution was determined in BALB/c nude mice bearing subcutaneous CHL-GLP-1R xenografts. Induction of cellular damage and the effect on tumor growth were analyzed to determine treatment efficacy. Exendin-4-IRDye700DX has a high affinity for the GLP-1R with an IC50 value of 6.3 nM. TPDT caused significant specific phototoxicity in GLP-1R positive cells (2.3 ± 0.8 % and 2.7 ± 0.3 % remaining cell viability in CHL-GLP-1R and INS-1 cells resp.). The tracer accumulates dose-dependently in GLP-1R positive tumors. In vivo tPDT induces cellular damage in tumors, shown by strong expression of cleaved-caspase-3 and leads to a prolonged median survival of the mice (36.5 vs. 22.5 days resp. p<0.05). These data show in vitro as well as in vivo evidence for the potency of tPDT using exendin-4-IRDye700DX. This could in the future provide a new, minimally invasive and highly specific treatment method for hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia.




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Confirmation of 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT (ioflupane) quantification methods in dementia with Lewy body and other neurodegenerative disorders

Rationale: To conduct a retrospective study comparing three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative methods in patients with neurodegenerative syndromes as referenced to neuropathological findings. Methods: 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT and neuropathological findings among patients with neurodegenerative syndromes from the Mayo Alzheimer's Disease Research Center and Mayo Clinic Study of Aging were examined. Three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative assessment Methods: MIMneuro (MIM Software Inc.), DaTQUANT (GE Healthcare), and manual region of interest (ROI) creation on an Advantage Workstation (GE Healthcare) were compared to neuropathological findings describing the presence or absence of Lewy body disease (LBD). Striatum to background ratios (SBRs) generated by DaTQUANT were compared to the calculated SBRs of the manual method and MIMneuro. The left and right SBRs for caudate, putamen and striatum were evaluated with the manual method. For DaTQUANT and MIMneuro the left, right, total and average SBRs and z-scores for whole striatum, caudate, putamen, anterior putamen, and posterior putamen were calculated. Results: The cohort included 24 patients [20 (83%) male, aged 75.4 +/- 10.0 at death]. The antemortem clinical diagnoses were Alzheimer’s disease dementia (ADem, N = 6), probable dementia with Lewy bodies (pDLB, N = 12), mixed ADem/pDLB (N = 1), Parkinson’s disease with mild cognitive impairment (N = 2), corticobasal syndrome (N = 1), idiopathic rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) (N = 1) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (N = 1). Seventeen (71%) had LBD pathology. All three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative methods had area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) values above 0.93 and up to 1.000 (p<0.001) and showed excellent discrimination between LBD and non-LBD patients in each region assessed, p<.001. There was no significant difference between the accuracy of the regions in discriminating the two groups, with good discrimination for both caudate and putamen. Conclusion: All three 123I-FP-CIT-SPECT quantitative methods showed excellent discrimination between LBD and non-LBD patients in each region assessed, using both SBRs and z-scores.




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Interim PET evaluation in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma employing published recommendations: Comparison of the Deauville 5-point scale and the {Delta}SUVmax method

The value of interim 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (iPET) guided treatment decisions in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been the subject of much debate. This investigation focuses on a comparison of the Deauville score and the deltaSUVmax (SUVmax) approach – two methods to assess early metabolic response to standard chemotherapy in DLBCL. Methods: Of 609 DLBCL patients participating in the Positron Emission Tomography-guided Therapy of Aggressive non-Hodgkin Lymphomas (PETAL) trial, iPET scans of 596 patients originally evaluated using the SUVmax method were available for post-hoc assessment of the Deauville score. A commonly used definition of an unfavorable iPET result according to the Deauville score is an uptake greater than that of the liver, whereas an unfavorable iPET scan with regard to the SUVmax approach is characterized as a relative reduction of the maximum standardized uptake value between baseline and iPET staging of less than or equal to 66%. We investigated the two methods’ correlation and concordance by Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and the agreement in classification, respectively. We further used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression to assess differences in survival between patient subgroups defined by the pre-specified cut-offs. Time-dependent receiver operating curve analysis provided information on the methods’ respective discrimination performance. Results: Deauville score and SUVmax approach differed in their iPET-based prognosis. The SUVmax approach outperformed the Deauville score in terms of discrimination performance – most likely due to a high number of false-positive decisions by the Deauville score. Cut-off-independent discrimination performance remained low for both methods, but cut-off-related analyses showed promising results. Both favored the SUVmax approach, e.g. for the segregation by iPET response, where the event-free survival hazard ratio was 3.14 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.22 – 4.46) for SUVmax and 1.70 (95% CI: 1.29 – 2.24) for the Deauville score. Conclusion: When considering treatment intensification, the currently used Deauville score cut-off of an uptake above that of the liver seems to be inappropriate and associated with potential harm for DLBCL patients. The SUVmax criterion of a relative reduction of the maximum standardized uptake value of less than or equal to 66% should be considered as an alternative.




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The effects of monosodium glutamate on PSMA radiotracer uptake in men with recurrent prostate cancer: a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled intra-individual imaging study.

The prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) is an excellent target for theranostic applications in prostate cancer (PCa). However, PSMA-targeted radioligand therapy can cause undesirable effects due to high accumulation of PSMA radiotracers in salivary glands and kidneys. This study assessed orally administered monosodium glutamate (MSG) as a potential means of reducing kidney and salivary gland radiation exposure using a PSMA targeting radiotracer. Methods: This prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled 10 biochemically recurrent PCa patients. Each subject served as his own control. [18F]DCFPyl PET/CT imaging sessions were performed 3 – 7 days apart, following oral administration of either 12.7 g of MSG or placebo. Data from the two sets of images were analyzed by placing regions of interest on lacrimal, parotid and submandibular glands, left ventricle, liver, spleen, kidneys, bowel, urinary bladder, gluteus muscle and malignant lesions. The results from MSG and placebo scans were compared by paired analysis of the ROI data. Results: A total of 142 pathological lesions along with normal tissues were analyzed. As hypothesized a priori, there was a significant decrease in maximal standardized uptake values corrected for lean body mass (SULmax) on images obtained following MSG administration in the parotids (24 ± 14%, P = 0.001), submandibular glands (35 ± 11%, P<0.001) and kidneys (23 ± 26%, P = 0.014). Significant decreases were also observed in lacrimal glands (49 ± 13%, P<0.001), liver (15 ± 6%, P<0.001), spleen (28 ± 13%, P = 0.001) and bowel (44 ± 13%, P<0.001). Mildly lower blood pool SULmean was observed after MSG administration (decrease of 11 ± 13%, P = 0.021). However, significantly lower radiotracer uptake in terms of SULmean, SULpeak, and SULmax was observed in malignant lesions on scans performed after MSG administration compared to the placebo studies (SULmax median decrease 33%, range -1 to 75%, P<0.001). No significant adverse events occurred and vital signs were stable following placebo or MSG administration. Conclusion: Orally administered MSG significantly decreased salivary gland, kidney and other normal organ PSMA radiotracer uptake in human subjects, using [18F]DCFPyL as an exemplar. However, MSG caused a corresponding reduction in tumor uptake, which may limit the benefits of this approach for diagnostic and therapeutic applications.




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Discussions with Leaders: A Conversation Between Johnese Spisso and Johannes Czernin




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Time for a Next-Generation Nuclear Medicine Gamma Camera? [NEWSLINE]




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Inclusive Growth and Job Creation in Africa: The Outlook for 2019 and Beyond

Invitation Only Research Event

30 September 2019 - 1:30pm to 2:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director, African Department, International Monetary Fund
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Head and Research Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

The IMF projects real GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in 2019 for sub-Saharan Africa but there is a mixed picture across the continent with growth in Mauritania, Senegal, Ethiopia and Rwanda outstripping projected growth rates for South Africa and Nigeria, for example, while a handful of economies seek to emerge from crisis. Yet, as is increasingly well documented, even strong growth has not delivered lasting socio-economic transformation in many contexts. And that most pressing of needs – job creation including to accommodate, in the next 15 years, an increase in the working age population greater than that in the rest of the world combined – remains a pressing concern for governments and societies. With populations continuing to grow at faster rates than economic growth, and a significant proportion of jobs outside agriculture being in the informal sector, investment in formal labour markets is crucial to creating inclusive economic growth.
 
At this event, the International Monetary Fund’s Africa Director, Abebe Aemro Selassie will discuss the outlook for sub-Saharan African economies in 2019 and progress towards achieving inclusive economic growth to accommodate future demographic change.
 
Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Yusuf Hassan

Parliamentary and Media Outreach Assistant, Africa Programme
+44 (0) 20 7314 3645




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Violent Extremist Groups in Africa: Local and Global Factors

Research Event

10 October 2019 - 5:00pm to 6:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Stig Jarle Hansen, Professor, Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Author, Horn, Sahel and Rift: Fault-lines of the African Jihad
Bulama Bukarti, PhD Candidate, SOAS, University of London; Analyst, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Chair: Aoife McCullough, PhD Candidate, LSE

Islamist-inspired radical organizations in Africa have had a historical presence that extends well beyond the more recent emergence of groups including Al Shabaab, Boko Haram, Ansar Dine and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.
  
Despite more than three decades of international efforts to immobilize these organizations, they have proven to be adaptable and resilient, continuing to engage in insurgent campaigns against the state and employing terrorist violence against civilians. As they operate within and across different states and regions, the key to understanding this persistence – as well as the challenges of responding to it – often lies in the interaction between global dynamics and frequently underappreciated local factors.
 
At this event, which will launch the book Horn, Sahel and Rift: Fault-lines of the African Jihad, speakers will discuss key factors leading to the emergence of radical Islamist violence in Africa, its impact and the outlook ahead for African and other actors in addressing these issues.
 
THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED. 

Yusuf Hassan

Parliamentary and Media Outreach Assistant, Africa Programme
+44 (0) 20 7314 3645




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Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues: Options for Economic Stabilization, Recovery and Inclusive Growth

3 October 2019

The Chatham House Africa Programme designed the Sudan Stakeholder Dialogues series to help identify the factors that have led to the current economic crisis, the immediate steps that need to be taken to avert collapse and stabilize the economy, and the longer-term structural reforms required to set Sudan on the path to recovery. The project is funded by Humanity United.

Ahmed Soliman

Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Africa Programme

2019-10-03-Sudan.jpg

An employee removes bread from the oven at a bakery in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on 24 May 2019. Photo: Getty Images.

Three private roundtable meetings were convened in the first quarter of 2019, with the aim of generating informed and constructive new thinking on policy options and reforms that could help Sudan build a more economically prosperous, stable and inclusive nation. The roundtables were held under the Chatham House Rule.

The project sought to offer a neutral space for discussion to policymakers and influencers from a broad range of backgrounds: Sudanese government officials, opposition figures, economists, experts on Sudan’s political economy and governance, civil society figures, representatives of international financial institutions, and other international policymakers.

This paper draws together the key themes and findings from each of the three roundtables, ranging from broad structural economic issues to sector-specific priority interventions. It presents options and recommendations for Sudanese leaders, including the transitional government, in support of building a more economically prosperous, peaceful and inclusive nation.




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Mobilizing Multinational Military Operations in Africa: Quick Fixes or Sustainable Solutions?

Research Event

25 October 2019 - 9:30am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Tony Chafer, University of Portsmouth
Professor Gordon Cumming, Cardiff University
Dr Roel van der Velde, Cardiff University
Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Chatham House
Dr Elisa Lopez Lucia, Université Libre de Bruxelles; University of Portsmouth
Chair: Janet Adama Mohammed, West Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources

Peacekeeping missions which have sought to address evolving forms of conflict and instability on the African continent – led by the United Nations, African Union and European Union – have frequently been overstretched.

Across regions including the Sahel, the Horn and West Africa, the issues of violent extremism and criminality – often set against a backdrop of collapsing or severely weakened central states – have led to the mobilisation of a diverse set of new collective responses.

These include notable African-led efforts such as AMISOM in Somalia or more recently the G5 Sahel, where France have played a pivotal role in initiating new and more ad hoc approaches to coalition-building.

As existing multinational missions in Africa continue to evolve on the ground and while new collective opportunities increasingly present themselves, it is critical for policymakers to understand how far such efforts reflect meaningful long-term solutions to the challenges of conflict and insecurity.

At this roundtable event, participants will reflect on how such missions become mobilised and legitimised, the extent to which they can be defined as ‘new’, and whether they represent a truly sustainable means to tackle the issue of conflict in Africa.

This roundtable is held in partnership with Cardiff University and the University of Portsmouth and is supported by the Leverhulme Trust.

Fergus Kell

Projects Assistant, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3671




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The Relevance of Intergovernmental Organizations to African States: The International Organization of La Francophonie

Research Event

6 November 2019 - 10:00am to 11:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Louise Mushikiwabo, Secretary General, Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF)
Chair: Bob Dewar CMG, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

African states are well represented in intergovernmental organizations linked by official language and colonial history such as the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), the Comunidade dos Países de Língua Portuguesa (CPLP) and the Commonwealth. These organizations aim to provide support in addressing matters of mutual interest – in addition to responding to significant policy challenges such as improving sustainable growth prospects and opportunities to young populations – and citizens are increasingly vocal on key issues such as democracy, human rights and the rule of law. This event series examines the importance of these intergovernmental organizations in working with their members to responsibly and sustainably respond to policy challenges in Africa.

At this event, Louise Mushikiwabo, secretary general of the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), will discuss the organisation’s relevance to African states and the future of the organization on the continent.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS NOW CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Côte d'Ivoire’s 2020 Elections: Contestation and Change

Invitation Only Research Event

8 November 2019 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Hon Guillaume Soro, Chairman, Rassemblement Pour la Côte d’Ivoire (RACI)
Chair: Paul Melly, Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

As Côte d'Ivoire enters a critical final 12 months before presidential elections scheduled for October 2020, the political atmosphere remains highly uncertain, stoked by the fracturing of the RDR-PDCI alliance and the potential candidacy of a range of high-profile political names. While President Ouattara’s two terms in office have ushered in an improved business environment, with annual economic growth averaging 8 per cent since 2012, political instability over the next 12 months may pose a threat to recent progress and raises wider security concerns in light of the major post-election violence witnessed a decade previously.

At this event, Ivorian presidential contender, and former prime minister and parliamentary speaker, Guillaume Soro, will assess the prime-election context in Côte d'Ivoire and the policies required to deliver inclusive growth and future stability for its citizens.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Rebel diplomacy and digital communication: public diplomacy in the Sahel

6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6

Michèle Bos and Jan Melissen

Most research on social media as a tool for public diplomacy focuses on its use by recognized international actors to advance their national interest and reputation, deliver foreign policy objectives or promote their global interests. This article highlights the need for paying more attention to non-state diplomacy in conflict situations outside the western world. We examine how rebel groups use new media to enhance their communications, and what the motivations behind this are. Our public diplomacy perspective helps convey the scope of rebel communications with external actors and provides insights for policy-makers seeking to ascertain the nature, intentions and capacities of myriad rebel groups. Our focus is on the Sahel region, where numerous such groups vying for international attention and support make use of multiple social media channels. We analyse two groups in Mali: the MNLA, a Tuareg secessionist group; and Ansar Dine, a Salafist insurgency with ties to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Our qualitative analysis of Ansar Dine and MNLA communications on several digital platforms helps identify these African rebel groups' international and local framing activities. Rebel groups use public diplomacy nimbly and pragmatically. The digital age has fundamentally changed which stakeholders such groups can reach, and we suggest that social media increase the power they are able to carve out for themselves on the international stage.




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China's ivory bans: enhancing soft power through wildlife conservation

6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6

Jonas Gamso

China has been a major market for elephant ivory for centuries. However, the Chinese government recently enacted bans on imports and exports of ivory (2015) and on the domestic ivory trade (2017). These bans appear to have come in response to intensive influence campaigns and public shaming from domestic and foreign activists, who cited declining elephant populations and highlighted China's role. However, this shaming-narrative is at odds with conventional wisdom regarding Chinese policy-making: China typically resists international pressures and its authoritarian government is thought to be largely insulated from domestic efforts by civil society groups. This article reconciles Beijing's ivory policy with these conventional beliefs about policy-making in China. I argue that the Chinese government saw unique benefits to banning the ivory trade, under growing international scrutiny, as doing so enhanced Chinese soft power while having very little impact on its sovereignty or development. Non-government organizations (NGOs) operating both inside and outside of China played a role as well: NGOs in China helped to shift Chinese public opinion towards favouring the bans, while those operating abroad led public relations efforts to publicize Chinese demand for ivory to foreign audiences. Efforts by the latter group of NGOs intensified pressure on the Chinese government to rein in the ivory market, while increasing the soft power benefits that banning ivory would bring to Beijing.




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Somalia's Electoral Road-Map and Federal Relations

Research Event

15 November 2019 - 10:30am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, Leader, Wadajir Party, Federal Republic of Somalia
Chair: Ahmed Soliman, Research Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

As Somalia heads into an electoral cycle, its political landscape and federal picture appear unstable. The federal government is seeking to implement a feasible electoral model that will further the country’s democratic transition ahead of elections set for late 2020 and early 2021. An expanded and more inclusive process will require an agreement on election modalities and approved electoral law, the completion of the constitutional review and improved security provision.
 
Reconciliation and dialogue between the federal government and federal member states will be critical to making further progress on political, security and economic reforms. Recent contestations in the regions of Jubaland, Galmudug and Puntland do not bode well. Somalia’s political leaders are readying themselves for a tough contest with several opposition parties recently merging to form the Forum for National Parties (FNP), led by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.
 
At this event, the Abdirahman Warsame, leader of the Wadajir Party, will analyse the political and federal transition in Somalia and give his perspective on how to improve the often-fractious relationship between the centre and the regions.
 
THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Diversity and Unity: African Agency in International Affairs

22 November 2019

Professor Carlos Lopes

Associate Fellow, Africa Programme
More and more, African countries are able to act in concert to stand up for the interests of the continent.

2019-11-22-AU.jpg

Delegates leave the plenary hall of the Africa Union headquarters in Addis Ababa in January 2018. Photo: Getty Images.

The conventional wisdom is that Africa is at the periphery of international affairs, and the perpetual subject – or victim – of decisions by powerful political or economic actors from outside the continent. The argument then goes on that the diversity of African countries, their atomization and fragmentation, further weakens the ability of the continent to act as a unified whole. As with much cliché about Africa, it does not tell the whole story. 

Soft vs hard power

There is no denying that the structure of international affairs, built on foundations which preceded the independence of the vast majority of African states, places limits on the continent’s ability to independently shape the course of its development and its international engagements. African countries lack the hard power that would typically allow them to be bolder in the global scene.

But Africa has long found softer approaches to exercise its agency, through international institutions and diplomatic arrangements. The collective mobilization at the level of the UN, leading up to the successful 1969 declaration by the General Assembly of apartheid as a crime against humanity, is a good example of early post-independence collective influence.

The last two decades have further empowered African countries, as economic development has been translated into increased diplomatic capacity, and socioeconomic potential has given weight to a more assertive leadership.

There are many examples, including: the successful integration of African priorities in the Sustainable Development Goals, notably financing for development; the push to include a substantial climate financing component for developing countries in the Paris Agreement; enhanced coordination between African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council; the condemnation of the International Criminal Court; or the solid resistance to reversals of the Doha Round at the World Trade Organization.

A fragmented unity?

It is also correct to note that individual African countries are quite diverse. Today, there are 55 member states of the African Union (AU); 30 are middle income economies with the rest towards the bottom of various indexes measuring progress and wellbeing. Socioeconomic and political divergences undeniably exist within the continent. But these factors have not prevented the continent from demonstrating some impressive feats of collective agency.

The internal processes put in place by the AU have created a level of continental diplomacy which is more coordinated than any other continental block bar the EU. African countries have also proved adept at using other diplomatic alliances to exercise collective agency, for instance as the most powerful voice within the G77, a coalition of developing nations.

Africa’s Future in a Changing Global Order: Agency in International Relations

HE Jakaya Kikwete, former president of the Republic of Tanzania, addresses a Chatham House conference on the role that African states and citizens play in international relations.

This has allowed Africa to build tactical alliances with countries and blocs from across the globe, resisting being drawn into any one sphere of influence. It has thus retained ultimate control of decision-making, even on issues of traditional ‘hard’ politics, notably the establishment of the African Peace and Security Architecture and the subsequent building of African capacity to collectively manage its peace and security efforts.

Among other things, this collective political will has powered African opposition to a formal permanent presence of US Africa Command (AFRICOM) and helped resolve conflicts from West Africa to Zimbabwe and Lesotho.

Another extraordinary example of collective political resistance can be observed in the trade discussions taking place between Africa and Europe. The EU is Africa's number-one trading partner. It designed and aggressively promoted new bilateral economic partnership agreements (EPAs) at a time when Africans were busy putting together a continental free-trade area. The apparent imbalance between the collective weight of the EU and the weakness of African states seemed likely to end African aspirations to continental integration.

But, to the surprise of many, the majority of African countries were able to resist pressure to sign the EPAs. Almost 20 years into the negotiations, only 15 countries have signed them, with 5 of these being interim agreements. Comparatively, 54 African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement in 2018, and 28 have so far ratified.

The ongoing debate between Europe and Africa on migration is an equally useful illustration of how the continent has become more protective of its interests. Despite pressure, the continent has collectively resisted attempts to externalize the EU’s internal migration management challenges to Africa. Rather, it has emphasized finding solutions that would also benefit its nationals through a mobility framework that privileges the management of intra-Africa migration.   

Diversity and unity

There are of course different levels of agency at work. The power of African countries is uneven both vis-à-vis the international community and within the continent itself, where development pathways are increasingly divergent. Achieving collective positions and joint action demands the careful balancing of regional and bilateral objectives and assuaging multiple – and sometimes contradictory – concerns. It is not easy in Africa, like for any other region.

However, there is no denying that Africans have realized the need for bolder action in the international arena, and the importance of unity in achieving their goals. The call by Africa’s leaders for the reform of their continental organization, the AU, demonstrates their recognition of its current limitations. This must now go beyond good intentions.

This article is the first of a series on African agency in international affairs.




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Economic Recovery and Anticorruption in South Africa: Assessing Progress on the Reform Agenda

Invitation Only Research Event

4 December 2019 - 3:00pm to 4:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Nick Binedell, Founding Director and Sasol Chair of Strategic Management, Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), University of Pretoria

South Africa has significant economic potential based on its resource endowment, quality human capital and well-developed infrastructure compared to the region. However, the country’s economic growth rate has not topped 2 per cent since 2013, and in 2018, was below 1 per cent. This has put a strain on citizens and communities in a country that still suffers from structural inequality, poverty and high unemployment. Economic recovery and anti-corruption were the central pillars of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2019 electoral campaign and he has set an investment target of $100 billion. However, voters and investors alike are demanding faster and more visible progress from the country’s enigmatic leader who has a reputation for caution and calculation.

At this event, Professor Nick Binedell will discuss the progress of and opposition to the president’s economic reform agenda and the opportunities for international investment to support long term inclusive and sustainable growth in South Africa.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Can the New European Commission Deliver on Its Promises to Africa?

4 December 2019

Fergus Kell

Projects Assistant, Africa Programme

Damir Kurtagic

Former Academy Robert Bosch Fellow, Africa Programme
Familiar promises of equal partnership must be backed by bolder action, including an expanded budget, internal reform and a rethink of its approach to trade negotiations.

2019-12-03-Urpilainen.jpg

Jutta Urpilainen, new EU commissioner for international partnerships, at the European Parliament in Brussels in October. Photo: Getty Images.

The new European Commission, headed by Ursula von der Leyen, assumed office on 1 December, and there are early signs that Africa will begin near the top of their foreign policy priorities. Policy towards Africa under the new EU administration is yet to be fully defined, but its contours are already visible in the selection of commissioners and assignment of portfolios.  

Although rumours of a dedicated commissioner for Africa were unfounded, the appointment of Jutta Urpilainen to the new role of commissioner for international partnerships – replacing the former post of development commissioner – is a strong signal of ongoing change in EU development thinking, away from bilateral aid towards trade and investment, including by the private sector. 

This may have significant consequences for the EU’s relationship with Africa. In her mission letter to Urpilainen in September, von der Leyen listed the first objective as a new ‘comprehensive strategy for Africa’. Urpilainen, Finland’s finance minister before being posted to Ethiopia as special representative on mediation, has also described her appointment as an opportunity to move on from traditional measures of aid delivery. 

Ambition or incoherence? 

However, this ambition may be at odds with other EU priorities and practices, notably managing migration and institutions and instruments for governing EU–Africa relations that remain rooted in a ‘traditional’ model of North–South development cooperation rather than equitable partnership.

Another newly created post will see Margaritis Schinas assume the role of vice-president for promoting the European way of life – formerly ‘protecting our European way of life’ before a backlash saw it changed – a reminder that migration will remain high on the EU’s foreign policy agenda. The new high representative for foreign and security policy and chief EU diplomat, Josep Borrell, has highlighted the need for bilateral partnership with countries of origin and transit, mainly in Africa. 

Negotiations also continue to stall on a replacement to the Cotonou Agreement, the 20-year partnership framework between the EU and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of states, which now looks certain to be extended for at least 12 months beyond its expiry in February 2020.

Ambiguities in the EU’s negotiating approach have certainly contributed to the delay: having pushed initially for a separate regional pillar for Africa that would be opened to the North African countries (who are not ACP members) and include a loosely defined role for the African Union, this would later be abandoned in favour of a dual-track process on separate new agreements with the AU and ACP respectively.

The EU also continues to pursue controversial economic partnership agreements under the aegis of Cotonou, despite their increasing appearance of incompatibility with the pathbreaking African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – one of the clearest expressions to date of African agency.

The EU has so far attempted to gloss over this incoherence, claiming that EPAs can somehow act as the ‘building blocks’ for Africa-wide economic integration. But tensions are appearing between EU departments and within the commission, with the European External Action Service inclined to prioritize a more strategic continental relationship with the AU, while the Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development remains committed to the ACP as the conduit for financial support and aid delivery.

And it is unlikely to get away with such incoherence for much longer. Change is now urgent, as numerous countries in sub-Saharan Africa continue to attract the strategic and commercial interests of the EU’s competitors: from established players such as China and potentially in future the UK, which is intent on remodelling its Africa ties post-Brexit, to emerging actors such as Turkey or Russia, which held its first Africa summit in October. 

The need for delivery

If the EU is serious about its rhetoric on equal partnership, it must therefore move beyond convoluted hybrid proposals. Delivering on the Juncker administration’s proposal to increase funding for external action by 30 per cent for 2021–27 would mark an important first step, particularly as this involves streamlining that would see the European Development Fund – the financial instrument for EU-ACP relations – incorporated into the main EU budget.

The new commission should therefore continue to exert pressure on the European Council and European Parliament to adopt this proposal, as negotiations on this financial framework have been repeatedly subject to delay and may not be resolved before the end of the year. 

Beyond this, proactive support for the AfCFTA and for structural transformation more broadly must be prioritized ahead of vague promises for a continent-to-continent free trade agreement, as held out by Juncker in his final State of the Union address in 2018. 

The significance of internal EU reforms for Africa should also not be discounted. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, for instance, has placed the African sector at a particular disadvantage and has made it harder to compete even in domestic markets, let alone in the distant EU export markets. EU efforts to stimulate inflows of private investments into the African agricultural sector, abolish import tariffs and offer technical support for African producers to satisfy EU health and safety regulations will be of little use if they are undermined by heavy subsidies across Europe.

Ultimately, changes to job titles alone will be insufficient. The new commission’s rhetoric, while ambitious, differs little from that of the previous decade – Africa has heard the promise of a ‘partnership of equals’ and of ‘shared ownership’ since before the advent of the Joint Africa–EU Strategy in 2007. Now is the time for truly bold steps to implement this vision.




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The African Continental Free Trade Area Could Boost African Agency in International Trade

10 December 2019

Tighisti Amare

Assistant Director, Africa Programme

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga

Director, Trade and Industry, African Union Commission (2012–19)
The agreement, which entered into force in May, could be a major step for Africa’s role in international trade, if the continent can overcome barriers to implementation.

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Delegates arrive at the closing ceremony of the African Union summit in Niger in July. Photo: Getty Images.

The entry into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on 30 May, after only three years of negotiations, is an economic, political and diplomatic milestone for the African Union (AU) and its member states, crucial for economic growth, job creation, and making Africa a meaningful player in international trade. But the continent will have to work together to ensure that the potential benefits are fully realized.

A necessary innovation

With its advances in maintaining peace and security, abundant natural resources, high growth rates, improved linkages to global supply chains and a youthful population, Africa is emerging as a new global centre of economic growth, increasingly sought after as a partner by the world’s biggest economies. Governments from across Africa have been taking a more assertive role in international markets, including through proactive diversification of trading partners, and the continent remains a strong advocate for the multilateral trading system.

However, this is not yet reflected in outcomes. The African Union does not have observer status at the World Trade Organization, despite diplomatic efforts in the past decade. Africa has less than a three per cent share of global trade, and the growing trend towards protectionism across the global economy may only increase the vulnerability of a disunited Africa. Its fractured internal market means that trade within Africa is lower than for any other region on the globe, with intra-African trade just 18 per cent of overall exports, as compared to 70 per cent in Europe.

The AfCFTA is the continent’s tool to address the disparity between Africa’s growing economic significance and its peripheral place in the global trade system, to build a bridge between present fragmentation and future prosperity. It is an ambitious, comprehensive agreement covering trade in goods, services, investment, intellectual property rights and competition policy. It has been signed by all of Africa’s states with the exception of Eritrea.

It is the AU's Agenda 2063 flagship project, brought about by the decisions taken at the January 2012 African Union Summit to boost intra-African trade and to fast track the establishment of the Continental Free Trade Area. It builds upon ambitions enshrined in successive agreements including the Lagos Plan of Action and the Abuja Treaty. Access to new regional markets and reduced non-tariff barriers are intended to help companies scale up, driving job creation and poverty reduction, as well as attracting inward investment to even Africa’s smaller economies.

The signing in 2018 of the instruments governing the Single Air Transport Market and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Right of Establishment provided another step towards the gradual elimination of barriers to the movement of goods, services and people within the continent.

Tests to come

However, while progress is being made towards the ratification of the AfCFTA, much remains to be done before African countries can fully trade under its terms. The framework for implementation is still under development, and the creation of enabling infrastructure that is critical for connectivity will take time to develop and requires extensive investment.

Africa’s Future in a Changing Global Order: Africa’s Economic Diplomacy

Treasure Thembisile Maphanga talks about the international implications of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

So, the first test for the AfCFTA will be the level to which Africa’s leaders make it a domestic priority, and whether a consensus can be maintained across the AU’s member states as the costs of implementation become clear.

There is no guarantee that the gains of free trade will be evenly distributed. They will mainly depend on the extent to which countries embrace industrialization, liberalization of their markets and opening of their borders for free movement of goods and people – policies that some incumbent leaders may be reluctant to implement. Political will to maintain a unified negotiating position with diverse stakeholders, including the private sector, will come under increasing stress.  

A second challenge is how the AfCFTA relates to already existing trade arrangements, notably with the EU.  The AU has long preferred to pursue a continent-to-continent trading arrangement instead of the bilateral Economic Partnership Agreements being sought by the EU under the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) framework to which, with the exception of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and South Africa, all African states belong. The signing of the AfCFTA is one important step towards making this possible.

But there are currently negotiations under the ACP to replace the Cotonou Accord (the framework governing trade between ACP members and the EU, including Economic Partnership Agreements [EPAs], that is due to expire in 2020). Negotiations on the African pillar of the accord are due to take place after the AfCFTA has entered into force. So African states and the AU will face the challenge of balancing their commitment to the ACP bloc with pursuing their own interests.

And though the AfCFTA should supersede any other agreements, the EPAs or their successors, will continue to govern day-to-day trading, in parallel to the new pan-African market. It is not yet clear how these contradictions will be reconciled.

A new role for the AU?

The AU will need to play an active role as the main interlocutor with Africa´s international trading partners, with the AfCFTA secretariat being the arbiter of internal tensions and trade disputes. The AU´s engagement at continental level has to date revolved mainly around headline political diplomacy, security and peacekeeping. With the continental free market becoming a reality, an effective pivot to economic diplomacy will be critical for growth and development.

With the AfCFTA, the AU has endeavoured to address Africa’s unsustainable position in global trade, to stimulate growth, economic diversification and jobs for its growing population. Much will depend on the commitment of African leaders to maintaining a unified negotiating position to implement the agreement and the AU’s capacity to effectively move from political to economic diplomacy.




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Can Liberation Movements Really Rid Southern Africa of Corruption?

17 December 2019

Christopher Vandome

Research Fellow, Africa Programme
Southern Africa’s national liberation movements have survived ‘end of decade’ elections across the region. Combating corruption has been at the heart of many of the campaigns, but the question is can they succeed?

2019-12-16-Namibia-Election.jpg

Supporters of the Namibian incumbent president and ruling party South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) presidential candidate Hage Geingob cheer and dance. Photo by GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP via Getty Images.

Swapo’s victory in Namibia two weeks ago was the last in a series of recent ‘end of decade’ elections that have returned dominant parties to power across Southern Africa. However, the “enduring appeal of liberation” is wearing thin.

Experiences across the region show that if governments are to deliver on their electoral promises, they must empower institutions, actively promote a culture of accountability and transparency within their party ranks and pursue economic reforms that untangle the web of party-state-business alliances. Such actions are critical for the survival of national liberation movements as the dominant force in the politics of Southern Africa – but will be difficult to implement.

Avoid political factionalism

South Africa, Botswana, Angola and Zimbabwe all saw new presidents take over just before elections. All used the rhetoric of anti-corruption to distance themselves from the tainted image of their predecessors. But acting on this requires a shift in mind-set in parties that have always preferred to deal with their problems behind closed doors. High profile adversaries from past regimes make tempting targets but could also drive party divisions.

In Angola, the transition of power was safeguarded by an agreement that former president José Eduardo dos Santos would be immune from prosecution. But this week his son faced corruption charges before the country’s supreme court, a high-profile example of a wave of anti-corruption cases across Southern Africa, driven by dominant parties wary of their future.

The allegations against José Filemino De Sousa Dos Santos, nickname ‘Zenu’, include a $500-million fraud involving the country’s central bank. Pressure is also mounting on Zenu’s sister Isabel — once prominent in Angola, she is now absent from public life.

Other leaders have had to tread more carefully. Immunity was a luxury Cyril Ramaphosa was neither willing nor politically able to grant Jacob Zuma in South Africa. Reliant on a few close allies at the top of the party, Ramaphosa lacks foot soldiers at the grassroots level, and his campaign against corruption within the ANC has faced persistent opposition.

Rebuilding institutions and empowering authorities takes time, and with few high-profile cases to point to, people are getting restless. This is also the case in Zimbabwe, where a worsening economic situation has left policy reformers politically isolated.

Party, state, and business

Long term incumbency has blurred the distinction between the party and the state. Liberation movements have created vast party-linked business empires. Political allegiance grants access to economic resources through appointments to lucrative positions in state-owned enterprises, preferential bids for tenders and licenses, and direct access to decision makers.

In Angola, this was fuelled by oil revenues. In South Africa, state capture flourished in an environment where the ANC and its constituent elements had significant power on the panels that chose leaders for state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In Namibia, an Icelandic fishing company paid backhanders to officials for fishing rights in what has become known as the ‘Fishrot’ scandal. Zanu-PF officials’ access to preferential foreign exchange rates present them with lucrative opportunities in Zimbabwe.

Ending this bureaucratic rent seeking goes beyond appointing ‘clean’ officials, which has been central to the anti-corruption campaigns in Angola and South Africa. Governments must also allow scrutiny of the state and empower those institutions designed for that role, such as the National Prosecuting Authority and the Public Protector in South Africa. Zimbabwe’s auditor general has published an in-depth report of the state of corruption in the country’s SOEs.

Companies must also be held to account for their role in aiding, and at worst directly benefitting, from state graft. International businesses have actively sought to benefit from corruption. They are now starting to face the consequences. A former Credit Suisse banker has pleaded guilty in the US over handling alleged kickbacks in Mozambique’s $2-billion “tuna bond” scandal. Global banks and consultancies continue to feel the squeeze for their complicity in state capture in South Africa.

Competition and pluralism

National liberation movements may only have a limited window within which to act. Across the region civil society campaigns and investigative journalists have shed light on some of the worst abuses of power. Anti-corruption campaigns are starting to bite. The state will continue to play a central role in Southern African economies, an important arbiter of economic transformation able to balance the region’s highly unequal and resource-dependent economies.

But opposition, civil society and the media are also critical for the progression towards democratic competition and pluralism in Southern Africa. Parliaments remain vital for holding rulers to account. Long used to unchallenged dominance, liberation movements have significant adjustments to make to rise to the challenge of a new era.

This article was originally published in the Mail and Guardian.




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Côte d'Ivoire’s 2020 Elections and Beyond: Ensuring Stability and Inclusion

Research Event

21 January 2020 - 11:30am to 12:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

HE Alassane Ouattara, President, Republic of Côte d'Ivoire
Chair: Bob Dewar CMG, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Please note, the second video on this page is from an interview with the president outside the event.

HE Alassane Ouattara, president of Côte d'Ivoire, discusses governance and domestic priorities ahead of and beyond elections, as well as efforts to sustain stability and support an inclusive electoral process.

Presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer and the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), will be held ‪on 31st October 2020 against a backdrop of marked political dynamism in the country and wider region.

Possible constitutional amendments and a newly announced major reform of the currency regime are among significant issues drawing focus.

A credible and inclusive electoral process is critical for the improvement of socio-development outcomes and for the maintenance of a positive investment environment.

But instability remains a serious risk and the stakes are high for Côte d'Ivoire and the wider region.




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Angola's Business Promise: Evaluating the Progress of Privatization and Other Economic Reforms

Research Event

21 January 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Hon. Manuel José Nunes Júnior, Minister of State for Economic Coordination, Republic of Angola
Chair: Dr Alex Vines OBE, Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Minister Nunes Júnior will discuss the progress of the Angolan government’s economic stabilization plans and business reform agenda including the privatization of some state-owned enterprises. These reforms could expand Angola’s exports beyond oil and stimulate new industries and more inclusive economic growth.

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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The UK, US and Mauritius: Decolonization, Security, Chagos and the ICJ

Invitation Only Research Event

30 January 2020 - 8:15am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Philippe Sands QC, Professor of Law, UCL 
Richard Burt, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme; Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy, Chatham House

The Chagos archipelago in the Indian Ocean has garnered media attention recently after the UK failed to abide by a UN deadline to return the islands to Mauritius. The US has landed in the middle of the dispute as a 1965 agreement with the UK has allowed the US to establish a military base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia, which has since become instrumental in US missions in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. 

In February 2019, an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the Chagos archipelago was unlawfully dismembered from Mauritius, in violation of the right to self-determination and that the United Kingdom is under an obligation to end its administration of the Chagos archipelago ‘as rapidly as possible’. The UN General Assembly subsequently voted overwhelmingly in favour of the UK leaving the islands by the end of November 2019 and the right of the former residents who were removed by the UK to return. The UK does not accept the ICJ and UN rulings and argues that the islands are needed to protect Britain from security threats while Mauritius has made clear the base can remain.

Professor Philippe Sands QC, professor of law at University College London and lead counsel for Mauritius on the ICJ case on Legal Consequences of the Separation of the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius in 1965, will be joining Ambassador Richard Burt, US chief negotiator in the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the former Soviet Union for a discussion on the fate of the archipelago including the future of the military base and the right of return of former residents.  

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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The Central African Republic: Security, Development and Responding to the Humanitarian Situation

Invitation Only Research Event

3 February 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Denise Brown, United Nations Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in the Central African Republic
Chair: Ben Shepherd, Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

With two-thirds of the country’s population estimated to be in need of humanitarian aid and one-quarter either internally displaced or living as refugees in neighbouring countries, the Central African Republic (CAR) continues to face serious and complex humanitarian challenges. The country’s forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for December 2020 risk inflaming CAR’s volatile security situation particularly with the return of former leader, François Bozizé, ousted by the Séléka rebel coalition leader, Michel Djotodia, who has also returned from exile.

At this event, Denise Brown will discuss CAR’s current security, humanitarian and development situations and the role of actors such as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). She will also discuss prospects for much-needed governance reform and reconciliation.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Decentralization and Cross-border Integration in the Horn of Africa

Research Event

4 February 2020 - 5:00pm to 6:15pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Mohamed Guleid, Chief Executive Officer, Frontier Counties Development Council
Nuradin Dirie, Chair, Puntland Presidential Advisory Council
Aden Abdi, Horn of Africa Programme Director, Conciliation Resources
Chair: Dr Zahbia Yousuf, Senior Research Advisor, Saferworld 

The interdependence of communities across the Horn of Africa results from social, familial, linguistic and cultural ties that cross territorial borders. Such linkages are reinforced by established patterns of movement and trade, often leading to stronger political and social connections between communities on either side of borders, than with their respective national capitals. States in the region are increasingly being challenged by demands for decentralization and more effective local governance. Improved understanding of the complexity of sub-national and cross-border political and economic contexts will be required to meet these demands and support enhanced governance so that challenges such as marginalization, intercommunal conflict and more equitable sharing of resources can be effectively addressed.

At this event, speakers will examine some of the key subnational and cross-border relations in the Horn of Africa. They will also discuss initiatives and stakeholders needed to support common solutions to building peace, furthering development and bolstering inclusive growth and integration. 

THIS EVENT IS NOW FULL AND REGISTRATION HAS CLOSED.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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POSTPONED: Pursuing Economic Reform and Growth in South Africa: the view from the African National Congress

Research Event

18 March 2020 - 10:30am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Paul Mashatile, Treasurer General, African National Congress (ANC)

The government of South Africa is pursuing a programme of reform to revitalize the economy, strengthen institutions and combat corruption. The State of the Nation Address (SONA) on 13 February and the budget speech of 26 February represent the most significant articulation of the government’s economic strategy. Central to this is the government’s plans for the energy sector, which is fundamental for reviving the economy, and the reform of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). But questions remain about possible divergence of the approach taken by government ministers from the policy position of the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), and what this might mean for the sustainability and progress of reform.  

At this event, Paul Mashatile, Treasurer General of the ANC, will discuss the party’s assessment of reform efforts to date and priorities for delivering on inclusive growth.

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Sahar Eljack

Programme Administrator, Africa Programme
+ 44 (0) 20 7314 3660




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Webinar: Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for African Economies and Development

Research Event

21 April 2020 - 4:30pm to 5:30pm

Event participants

Dr Hafez Ghanem, Vice President for Africa, World Bank
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Dr Hafez Ghanem discusses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for African economies and their development and poverty reduction efforts, and assesses the priorities and obstacles for establishing a comprehensive response to the crisis.
 
While the acute strain placed on health systems by the COVID-19 pandemic is already in evidence, the long-term economic fallout from the crisis is yet to fully manifest.
 
For Africa it is the economic impact that may leave the most enduring legacy: from the direct expense of measures to treat, detect and reduce the spread of the virus; to the indirect costs of domestic lockdown measures, global supply chain disruptions and plummeting commodity prices.
 
As decision-makers globally start to plan for the scale of this economic shock, strategizing in and on Africa to meet the challenge will require unprecedented planning and commitment - and will need to be matched by support from international partners to enable long-term recovery.
 

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Webinar: Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Food Security and Resilience in Africa

Research Event

23 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Dr Arif Husain, Chief Economist and Director of Research, Assessment and Monitoring, United Nations World Food Programme
Respondent: Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Professor Tim Benton, Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House
Dr Arif Husain gives his assessment of the potential impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on food security in Africa and what can be done to prevent a food security emergency.
 
Linked to the immediate public health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are those of economic and food security, particularly significant for low- and middle-income countries. Currently more than 821 million people globally go hungry, with 100 million of those suffering acute hunger, and this will worsen if the evolving economic emergency becomes a food security emergency.
 
Sub-Saharan African countries rely on trade for food security and for revenue; they imported more than 40 million tons of cereal from around the world in 2018, according to the World Food Programme (WFP). The region faces stark new challenges due to the pandemic.

This event launches the WFP paper COVID-19: Potential impact on the world’s poorest people.

Department/project

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Beyond Lockdown: Africa’s Options for Responding to COVID-19

21 April 2020

Ben Shepherd

Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme

Nina van der Mark

Research Analyst, Global Health Programme
The continent’s enormous diversity means that there will be no one African experience of COVID-19, nor a uniform governmental response. But there are some common challenges across the continent, and a chance to get the response right.

2020-04-22-Africa-COVID-Dakar

Dakar after the Interior Ministry announced compulsory wearing of masks in public and private services, shops and transport, under penalty of sanctions. Photo by SEYLLOU/AFP via Getty Images.

African policymakers face a dilemma when it comes to COVID-19. The first hope is to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold at all, and many African states have significant experience of managing infectious disease outbreaks. The establishment of the Africa Centre for Disease Control highlights the hugely increased focus on public health in recent years.

But capacities to track, test and isolate vary wildly, notably between neighbours with porous and poorly controlled borders and, in most cases, sustained national-level disease control is difficult. Initial clusters of COVID-19 cases are already established in many places, but a lack of testing capacity makes it hard to know the full extent of transmission.

It is not obvious what African states should do as a response. Lack of information about COVID-19 means the proportion of asymptomatic or mild cases is not known, still less the ways in which this is influenced by human geography and demographics.

Africa is an overwhelmingly young continent with a median age under 20. But it also faces chronic malnutrition, which may weaken immune responses, and infectious diseases such as malaria, TB and HIV are widespread which could worsen the impact of COVID-19, particularly if treatment for these diseases is interrupted.

Complex and unknown

Ultimately, how all these factors interact with COVID-19 is complex and remains largely unknown. Africa may escape with a relatively light toll. Or it could be hit harder than anywhere else.

What is clear, however, is that cost of simply following the rest of the world into lockdown could be high. Africa is relatively rural but has higher populations living in informal settlements than anywhere in the world. Many live in cramped and overcrowded accommodation without clean water or reliable electricity, making handwashing a challenge and working from home impossible.

And the benefits appear limited. The goal of lockdowns in most places is not to eliminate the virus but to accept the economic and social costs as a price worth paying in order to ‘flatten the curve’ of infection and protect healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. But this logic does not hold when many of Africa’s healthcare systems are barely coping with pre-coronavirus levels of disease.

Africa suffers in comparison to much of the rest of the world in terms of access to quality and affordable healthcare, critical care beds and specialist personnel. For example, in 2017, Nigeria had just 120 ICU beds for a country of 200 million, equating to 0.07 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 12.5 per 100,000 in Italy and 3.6 per 100,000 in China.

The pandemic’s ruinous economic impacts could also be more acute for Africa than anywhere else. The continent is highly vulnerable to potential drops in output and relies heavily on demand from China and Europe. Many states are already facing sharply falling natural resource revenues, and investment, tourism and remittances will suffer - all on top of a high existing debt burden.

Analysis by the World Bank shows that Africa will likely face its first recession in 25 years, with the continental economy contracting by up to 5.1% in 2020. Africa will have scant financial ammunition to use in the fight against COVID-19 with currencies weakening, food prices rising, local agri-food supply chains disrupted and food imports likely to decrease as well. A food security emergency appears a strong possibility.

So, although several states have imposed national lockdowns and others closed major urban centres, lockdowns are difficult to manage and sustain, especially in places where the daily hustle of the informal sector or subsistence agriculture are the only means of survival and where the state has neither the trust of the population nor the capacity to replace lost earnings or meet basic needs.

Of course, this is not simply a binary choice between lockdown or no lockdown - a range of intermediate options exist, such as some restriction on movement, curfews, shutting places of worship, banning only large gatherings, or closing pubs, schools and borders.

A significant number of African states have so far taken this middle path. This will not prevent the virus from spreading nor, in all probability, be enough to ensure adequate healthcare for all Africans infected with COVID-19. But it may help slow the spread and buy invaluable time for African states and partners to prepare.

How this time is used is therefore of paramount importance. Popular trust in the state is low in many African countries so strategies must empower communities, not alienate them. Africa’s experience of previous epidemics and long traditions of collective resilience and community-based crisis response - which persist in many places – are significant strengths.

The right messages must be carried by the right messengers, and policies - including cash transfers and food distribution - implemented sensitively. If not, or if responses become militarized, public consent is unlikely to be sustained for long.




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Webinar: Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for African Elections and Democracy

Research Event

6 May 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Dr Christopher Fomunyoh, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Central and West Africa, National Democratic Institute (NDI)
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
2020 was anticipated to be a year of landmark elections across Africa, including general elections scheduled in Somalia and Ethiopia – countries at critical junctures in their transitions to electoral democracy – as well as a re-run of annulled presidential elections in Malawi.
 
The COVID-19 pandemic has created new challenges for African countries seeking to hold elections or further democratization – including the practicalities of adapting containment measures to electoral processes in the context of strained financial and logistical resources. It may also be used as a pretext for the pursuit of repressive legislation and constitutional amendments to preclude elections or bolster authoritarianism, compounded by new constraints on accountability mechanisms such as election observation missions.
 
At this event, Dr Christopher Fomunyoh discusses the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on elections and democracy in various African countries, as well as responses and measures to meet the multifaceted challenges posed.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
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Natasha Kimani, Academy Associate, Chatham House; Head of Partnerships and Programmes, Shujaaz Inc.
Chair: Tighisti Amare, Assistant Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
While gender equality was enshrined in Kenyan law under the 2010 constitution, gender-based marginalization remains a significant issue across all levels of society. The advent of devolution in 2013 raised hopes of enhanced gender awareness in policymaking and budgeting, with the 47 newly instituted county governments expected to tackle the dynamics of inequality close to home, but implementation has so far failed to match this initial promise. As Kenya approaches the tenth anniversary of the constitution, and with the COVID-19 pandemic throwing the challenges of gender inequality into sharper relief, it is critical to ensure that constitutional pathways are followed with the requisite level of urgency, commitment and investment to address entrenched gender issues.
 
This event, which will launch the report, Meeting the Promise of the 2010 Constitution: Devolution, Gender and Equality in Kenya, will assess the current status of efforts to devolve and adopt gender-responsive budgeting and decision-making in Kenya, and the priorities and potential future avenues to tackle the implementation gap.
 
This event will be held on the record.

To express your interest in attending, please follow this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Deletion of fatty acid transport protein 2 (FATP2) in the mouse liver changes the metabolic landscape by increasing the expression of PPAR{alpha}-regulated genes [Lipids]

Fatty acid transport protein 2 (FATP2) is highly expressed in the liver, small intestine, and kidney, where it functions in both the transport of exogenous long-chain fatty acids and the activation of very-long-chain fatty acids. Here, using a murine model, we investigated the phenotypic impacts of deleting FATP2, followed by a transcriptomic analysis using unbiased RNA-Seq to identify concomitant changes in the liver transcriptome. WT and FATP2-null (Fatp2−/−) mice (5 weeks) were maintained on a standard chow diet for 6 weeks. The Fatp2−/− mice had reduced weight gain, lowered serum triglyceride, and increased serum cholesterol levels and attenuated dietary fatty acid absorption. Transcriptomic analysis of the liver revealed 258 differentially expressed genes in male Fatp2−/− mice and a total of 91 in female Fatp2−/− mice. These genes mapped to the following gene ontology categories: fatty acid degradation, peroxisome biogenesis, fatty acid synthesis, and retinol and arachidonic acid metabolism. Targeted RT-quantitative PCR verified the altered expression of selected genes. Of note, most of the genes with increased expression were known to be regulated by peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor α (PPARα), suggesting that FATP2 activity is linked to a PPARα-specific proximal ligand. Targeted metabolomic experiments in the Fatp2−/− liver revealed increases of total C16:0, C16:1, and C18:1 fatty acids; increases in lipoxin A4 and prostaglandin J2; and a decrease in 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid. We conclude that the expression of FATP2 in the liver broadly affects the metabolic landscape through PPARα, indicating that FATP2 provides an important role in liver lipid metabolism through its transport or activation activities.




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Phosphoproteomic characterization of the signaling network resulting from activation of the chemokine receptor CCR2 [Genomics and Proteomics]

Leukocyte recruitment is a universal feature of tissue inflammation and regulated by the interactions of chemokines with their G protein–coupled receptors. Activation of CC chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2) by its cognate chemokine ligands, including CC chemokine ligand 2 (CCL2), plays a central role in recruitment of monocytes in several inflammatory diseases. In this study, we used phosphoproteomics to conduct an unbiased characterization of the signaling network resulting from CCL2 activation of CCR2. Using data-independent acquisition MS analysis, we quantified both the proteome and phosphoproteome in FlpIn-HEK293T cells stably expressing CCR2 at six time points after activation with CCL2. Differential expression analysis identified 699 significantly regulated phosphorylation sites on 441 proteins. As expected, many of these proteins are known to participate in canonical signal transduction pathways and in the regulation of actin cytoskeleton dynamics, including numerous guanine nucleotide exchange factors and GTPase-activating proteins. Moreover, we identified regulated phosphorylation sites in numerous proteins that function in the nucleus, including several constituents of the nuclear pore complex. The results of this study provide an unprecedented level of detail of CCR2 signaling and identify potential targets for regulation of CCR2 function.