se

Send Daily Email Digests to Friends, Colleagues or Even to Yourself

When we announced our v13 update, we mentioned a new feature called Email Digests that we’ll explain further in this…




se

Autologous Umbilical Cord Blood Transfusion in Young Children With Type 1 Diabetes Fails to Preserve C-Peptide

OBJECTIVE

We conducted an open-label, phase I study using autologous umbilical cord blood (UCB) infusion to ameliorate type 1 diabetes (T1D). Having previously reported on the first 15 patients reaching 1 year of follow-up, herein we report on the complete cohort after 2 years of follow-up.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 24 T1D patients (median age 5.1 years) received a single intravenous infusion of autologous UCB cells and underwent metabolic and immunologic assessments.

RESULTS

No infusion-related adverse events were observed. β-Cell function declined after UCB infusion. Area under the curve C-peptide was 24.3% of baseline 1 year postinfusion (P < 0.001) and 2% of baseline 2 years after infusion (P < 0.001). Flow cytometry revealed increased regulatory T cells (Tregs) (P = 0.04) and naive Tregs (P = 0.001) 6 and 9 months after infusion, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Autologous UCB infusion in children with T1D is safe and induces changes in Treg frequency but fails to preserve C-peptide.




se

Effects of MK-0941, a Novel Glucokinase Activator, on Glycemic Control in Insulin-Treated Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of MK-0941, a glucokinase activator (GKA), when added to stable-dose insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this double-blind study, 587 patients taking stable-dose insulin glargine (±metformin ≥1,500 mg/day) were randomized (1:1:1:1:1) to MK-0941 10, 20, 30, or 40 mg or matching placebo t.i.d. before meals (a.c.). This study included an initial 14-week, dose-ranging phase followed by a 40-week treatment phase during which patients were to be uptitrated as tolerated to 40 mg (or placebo) t.i.d. a.c. The primary efficacy end point was change from baseline in A1C at Week 14.

RESULTS

At Week 14, A1C and 2-h postmeal glucose (PMG) improved significantly versus placebo with all MK-0941 doses. Maximal placebo-adjusted least squares mean changes from baseline in A1C (baseline A1C 9.0%) and 2-h PMG were –0.8% and –37 mg/dL (–2 mmol/L), respectively. No significant effects on fasting plasma glucose were observed at any dose versus placebo. By 30 weeks, the initial glycemic responses noted at 14 weeks were not sustained. MK-0941 at one or more doses was associated with significant increases in the incidence of hypoglycemia, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, and proportion of patients meeting criteria for predefined limits of change for increased diastolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients receiving stable-dose insulin glargine, the GKA MK-0941 led to improvements in glycemic control that were not sustained. MK-0941 was associated with an increased incidence of hypoglycemia and elevations in triglycerides and blood pressure.




se

Effectively Serving Immigrant and Dual Language Learner Families through Home Visiting Programs

Marking a policy brief's release, this webinar explores the promise of home visiting services that support new parents alongside their infants and toddlers, plus strategies for improving how these programs work with immigrant and linguistically diverse families.




se

The Colombian Response to the Venezuelan Migration Crisis: A Dialogue with Colombia’s Migration Czar

Felipe Muñoz, Advisor to the President of Colombia for the Colombian-Venezuelan Border, discusses how Colombia is coping with the influx of Venezuelan migrants, plans for future policy decisions surrounding this migration, and developments in regional and international cooperation.




se

Latin American Responses to the Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migration Crises

Leading policymakers and key stakeholders from Latin America, as well as representatives of major international institutions, offer their views on the challenges ahead as Latin American governments seek to chart strategies for responding to large-scale forced migration flows, such as those from Venezuela and Nicaragua. Spanish and English versions of the remarks are available.




se

Respuestas latinoamericanas a las crisis migratorias venezolanas y nicaragüenses

Responsables de políticos principales y partes interesadas de América Latina, así como representantes de instituciones internacionales claves, ofrecen sus puntos de vista sobre los desafíos futuros mientras gobiernos latinoamericanos buscan establecer las estrategias para responder a flujos migratorios forzados a gran escala, como los de Venezuela y Nicaragua.




se

Turning the Tide: Addressing the Long-Term Challenges of EU Mobility for Sending Countries

Amid ongoing debates about the costs and benefits of free movement, this MPI webinar examines evidence from the EU-funded REMINDER project on different types of East-West mobility. Speakers examine big-picture trends of East-West migration; consider possible policy responses at regional, national, and EU levels to alleviate some of the challenges; and reflect on realistic actions that could be taken under a new European Commission.




se

Employment Services for Refugees: Leveraging Mainstream U.S. Systems and Funding

On this webinar, experts and state refugee resettlement program leaders discuss activities that can be key parts of a broader strategy for sustaining and improving employment services for refugees, including partnerships with experts in workforce development strategies, access to federal workforce development funding, and other policies and resources.




se

Is the Door Closing? Latin American and Caribbean Responses to Venezuelan Migration

Fleeing crisis, nearly 4 million Venezuelans have moved to other Latin American and Caribbean countries over the past few years. This webinar marked the launch of a Latin American and Caribbean Migration Portal, and a report examining the migration and integration policy responses in the region. 




se

¿Se Están Cerrando las Puertas? Respuestas a la Migración Venezolana en América Latina y el Caribe

MPI llevó a cabo un seminario en línea para marcar el lanzamiento de: Un portal sobre Migración en América Latina y el Caribe; y un informe que examina los efectos de las políticas migratorias y de integración en 11 países en América Latina y el Caribe ante el aumento de la migración venezolana y nicaragüense.




se

Seasonal Worker Programs in Europe: Lessons Learned and Ways Forward

As the European Union prepares to review the implementation of its Seasonal Workers Directive, as well as countries such as the United Kingdom continue to explore new approaches to selecting seasonal workers, this webinar features findings from a policy brief on the topic. 




se

Expert Podcast: Meeting Seasonal Labor Needs in the Age of COVID-19

Governments are facing urgent pandemic-related questions. One of the more pressing ones: Who is going to harvest crops in countries that rely heavily on seasonal foreign workers? In this podcast, MPI experts examine ways in which countries could address labor shortages in agriculture, including recruiting native-born workers and letting already present seasonal workers stay longer. Catch an interesting discussion as border closures have halted the movement of seasonal workers even as crops are approaching harvest in some places.




se

Mental Health Risks and Resilience among Somali and Bhutanese Refugee Parents

Somali and Bhutanese refugees are two of the largest groups recently resettled in the United States and Canada. This report examines factors that might promote or undermine the mental health and overall well-being of children of these refugees, with regard to factors such as past exposure to trauma, parental mental health, educational attainment, social support, and discrimination.




se

The Nutritional Health of Young Refugee Children Resettling in Washington State

Refugee children are vulnerable to health and nutrition risks that can have long-term consequences for their development and well-being. This report examines the prevalence of malnutrition—from stunting and wasting to overweight and obesity—among refugee children from birth to age 10, using data from an overseas medical screening exam before they were resettled in Washington State between 2012 and 2014.




se

Chilling Effects: The Expected Public Charge Rule and Its Impact on Legal Immigrant Families’ Public Benefits Use

According to leaked drafts, the Trump administration is considering a rule that could have sweeping effects on both legal immigration to the United States and the use of public benefits by legal immigrants and their families. This report examines the potential scale of the expected rule’s impact, including at national and state levels and among children, as well as Hispanic and Asian American/Pacific Islander immigrants.




se

Leveraging the Potential of Home Visiting Programs to Serve Immigrant and Dual Language Learner Families

Home visiting programs for young families are growing in popularity across the United States, and have demonstrated their effectiveness in supporting maternal health and child well-being. At the same time, more infants and toddlers are growing up in immigrant families and households where a language other than English is spoken. Why then are these children under-represented in these programs? This brief explores common barriers, ways to address them, and why it is important to do so.




se

Green Cards and Public Charge: Who Could Be Denied Based on Benefits Use?

On this webinar MPI experts discuss their estimates of the populations that could be deemed ineligible for a green card based on existing benefits use. They also discuss the broader consequences of the public-charge rule implemented in February 2020, through its "chilling effects" and imposition of a wealth test aimed at assessing whether green-card applicants ever would be likely to use a public benefit in the future. 




se

The Public-Charge Rule: Broad Impacts, But Few Will Be Denied Green Cards Based on Actual Benefits Use

While the Trump administration public-charge rule is likely to vastly reshape legal immigration based on its test to assess if a person might ever use public benefits in the future, the universe of noncitizens who could be denied a green card based on current benefits use is quite small. That's because very few benefit programs are open to noncitizens who do not hold a green card. This commentary offers estimates of who might be affected.




se

Green Cards and Public Charge: Who Could Be Denied Based on Benefits Use?

On this webinar, MPI experts discussed the public-charge rule and released estimates of the populations that could be deemed ineligible for a green card based on existing benefits use. They examined the far larger consequences of the rule, through its "chilling effects" and imposition of a test aimed at assessing whether green-card applicants are likely to ever use a public benefit in the future. And they discussed how the latter holds the potential to reshape legal immigration to the United States. 




se

As U.S. Health-Care System Buckles under Pandemic, Immigrant &amp; Refugee Professionals Could Represent a Critical Resource

In a time of critical shortages of U.S. health-care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic, retired doctors are being called back to work and medical students are graduating on a fast track. There is another important pool that could be tapped: Immigrants and refugees who have college degrees in health fields but are working in low-skilled jobs or out of work. MPI estimates 263,000 immigrants are experiencing skill underutilization and could be a valuable resource.




se

The Diabetes Attitudes, Wishes and Needs Second Study

Martha M. Funnell
Jan 1, 2015; 33:32-36
Translating Research to Practice




se

Case Study: Potential Pitfalls of Using Hemoglobin A1c as the Sole Measure of Glycemic Control

Huy A. Tran
Jul 1, 2004; 22:141-143
Case Studies




se

Diabetes and Back Pain: Markers of Diabetes Disease Progression Are Associated With Chronic Back Pain

Lorenzo Rinaldo
Jul 1, 2017; 35:126-131
Feature Articles




se

Diabetes Self-management Education and Support in Type 2 Diabetes: A Joint Position Statement of the American Diabetes Association, the American Association of Diabetes Educators, and the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics

Margaret A. Powers
Apr 1, 2016; 34:70-80
Position Statements




se

Self-Monitoring of Blood Glucose: The Basics

Evan M. Benjamin
Jan 1, 2002; 20:
Practical Pointers




se

Persistence of Continuous Glucose Monitoring Use in a Community Setting 1 Year After Purchase

James Chamberlain
Jul 1, 2013; 31:106-109
Feature Articles




se

Interdisciplinary Team Care for Diabetic Patients by Primary Care Physicians, Advanced Practice Nurses, and Clinical Pharmacists

David Willens
Apr 1, 2011; 29:60-68
Feature Articles




se

Diabetes Management Issues for Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Kerri L. Cavanaugh
Jul 1, 2007; 25:90-97
Feature Articles




se

Engaging Patients in Education for Self-Management in an Accountable Care Environment

Christine A. Beebe
Jul 1, 2011; 29:123-126
Practical Pointers




se

Diabetes Self-Management in a Community Health Center: Improving Health Behaviors and Clinical Outcomes for Underserved Patients

Daren Anderson
Jan 1, 2008; 26:22-27
Bridges to Excellence




se

Empowerment and Self-Management of Diabetes

Martha M. Funnell
Jul 1, 2004; 22:123-127
Feature Articles




se

The Miniseries ‘Devs’ Delivers a Delicious Dose of Heroism and Villainy

By Scott T. Allison Devs is the ideal TV mini-series for people to sink their teeth into, for many reasons: (1) It’s both science and science-fiction; (2) it’s brilliant mix of psychology, philosophy, religion, and technology; (3) it tantalizes us with the mysteries of love, life, death, time, and space; and (4) it features a … Continue reading The Miniseries ‘Devs’ Delivers a Delicious Dose of Heroism and Villainy



  • Commentary and Analysis

se

Baseball and Linguistic Uncertainty

In my youth I played an inordinate amount of baseball, collected baseball cards, and idolized baseball players. I've outgrown all that but when I'm in the States during baseball season I do enjoy watching a few innings on the TV.

So I was watching a baseball game recently and the commentator was talking about the art of pitching. Throwing a baseball, he said, is like shooting a shotgun. You get a spray. As a pitcher, you have to know your spray. You learn to control it, but you know that it is there. The ball won't always go where you want it. And furthermore, where you want the ball depends on the batter's style and strategy, which vary from pitch to pitch for every batter.

That's baseball talk, but it stuck in my mind. Baseball pitchers must manage uncertainty! And it is not enough to reduce it and hope for the best. Suppose you want to throw a strike. It's not a good strategy to aim directly at, say, the lower outside corner of the strike zone, because of the spray of the ball's path and because the batter's stance can shift. Especially if the spray is skewed down and out, you'll want to move up and in a bit.

This is all very similar to the ambiguity of human speech when we pitch words at each other. Words don't have precise meanings; meanings spread out like the pitcher's spray. If we want to communicate precisely we need to be aware of this uncertainty, and manage it, taking account of the listener's propensities.

Take the word "liberal" as it is used in political discussion.

For many decades, "liberals" have tended to support high taxes to provide generous welfare, public medical insurance, and low-cost housing. They advocate liberal (meaning magnanimous or abundant) government involvement for the citizens' benefit.

A "liberal" might also be someone who is open-minded and tolerant, who is not strict in applying rules to other people, or even to him or herself. Such a person might be called "liberal" (meaning advocating individual rights) for opposing extensive government involvement in private decisions. For instance, liberals (in this second sense) might oppose high taxes since they reduce individuals' ability to make independent choices. As another example, John Stuart Mill opposed laws which restricted the rights of women to work (at night, for instance), even though these laws were intended to promote the welfare of women. Women, insisted Mill, are intelligent adults and can judge for themselves what is good for them.

Returning to the first meaning of "liberal" mentioned above, people of that strain may support restrictions of trade to countries which ignore the health and safety of workers. The other type of "liberal" might tend to support unrestricted trade.

Sending out words and pitching baseballs are both like shooting a shotgun: meanings (and baseballs) spray out. You must know what meaning you wish to convey, and what other meanings the word can have. The choice of the word, and the crafting of its context, must manage the uncertainty of where the word will land in the listener's mind.


Let's go back to baseball again.

If there were no uncertainty in the pitcher's pitch and the batter's swing, then baseball would be a dreadfully boring game. If the batter knows exactly where and when the ball will arrive, and can completely control the bat, then every swing will be a homer. Or conversely, if the pitcher always knows exactly how the batter will swing, and if each throw is perfectly controlled, then every batter will strike out. But which is it? Whose certainty dominates? The batter's or the pitcher's? It can't be both. There is some deep philosophical problem here. Clearly there cannot be complete certainty in a world which has some element of free will, or surprise, or discovery. This is not just a tautology, a necessary result of what we mean by "uncertainty" and "surprise". It is an implication of limited human knowledge. Uncertainty - which makes baseball and life interesting - is inevitable in the human world.

How does this carry over to human speech?

It is said of the Wright brothers that they thought so synergistically that one brother could finish an idea or sentence begun by the other. If there is no uncertainty in what I am going to say, then you will be bored with my conversation, or at least, you won't learn anything from me. It is because you don't know what I mean by, for instance, "robustness", that my speech on this topic is enlightening (and maybe interesting). And it is because you disagree with me about what robustness means (and you tell me so), that I can perhaps extend my own understanding.

So, uncertainty is inevitable in a world that is rich enough to have surprise or free will. Furthermore, this uncertainty leads to a process - through speech - of discovery and new understanding. Uncertainty, and the use of language, leads to discovery.

Isn't baseball an interesting game?




se

Picking a Theory is Like Building a Boat at Sea


"We are like sailors who on the open sea must reconstruct their ship
 but are never able to start afresh from the bottom." 
Otto Neurath's analogy in the words of Willard V. Quine

Engineers, economists, social planners, security strategists, and others base their plans and decisions on theories. They often argue long and hard over which theory to use. Is it ever right to use a theory that we know is empirically wrong, especially if a true (or truer) theory is available? Why is it so difficult to pick a theory?

Let's consider two introductory examples.

You are an engineer designing a robot. You must calculate the forces needed to achieve specified motions of the robotic arms. You can base these calculations on either of two theories. One theory assumes that an object comes to rest unless a force acts upon it. Let's call this axiom A. The other theory assumes that an object moves at constant speed unless a force acts upon it. Let's call this axiom G. Axiom A agrees with observation: Nothing moves continuously without the exertion of force; an object will come to rest unless you keep pushing it. Axiom G contradicts all observation; no experiment illustrates the perpetual motion postulated by the axiom. If all else is the same, which theory should you choose?

Axiom A is Aristotle's law of inertia, which contributed little to the development of mechanical dynamics. Axiom G is Galileo's law of inertia: one of the most fruitful scientific ideas of all time. Why is an undemonstrable assertion - axiom G - a good starting point for a theory?

Consider another example.

You are an economist designing a market-based policy to induce firms to reduce pollution. You will use an economic theory to choose between policies. One theory assumes that firms face pure competition, meaning that no single firm can influence market prices. Another theory provides agent-based game-theoretic characterization of how firms interact (without colluding) by observing and responding to price behavior of other firms and of consumers.

Pure competition is a stylized idealization (like axiom G). Game theory is much more realistic (like axiom A), but may obscure essential patterns in its massive detail. Which theory should you use?

We will not address the question of how to choose a theory upon which to base a decision. We will focus on the question: why is theory selection so difficult? We will discuss four trade offs.

"Thanks to the negation sign, there are as many truths as falsehoods;
we just can't always be sure which are which." Willard V. Quine

The tension between right and right. The number of possible theories is infinite, and sometimes it's hard to separate the wheat from the chaff, as suggested by the quote from Quine. As an example, I have a book called A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought by Snowdon, Vane and Wynarczyk. It's a wonderful overview of about a dozen theories developed by leading economic scholars, many of them Nobel Prize Laureates. The theories are all fundamentally different. They use different axioms and concepts and they compete for adoption by economists. These theories have been studied and tested upside down and backwards. However, economic processes are very complex and variable, and the various theories succeed in different ways or in different situations, so the jury is still out. The choice of a theory is no simple matter because many different theories can all seem right in one way or another.

"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." Archilochus

The fox-hedgehog tension. This aphorism by Archilochus metaphorically describes two types of theories (and two types of people). Fox-like theories are comprehensive and include all relevant aspects of the problem. Hedgehog-like theories, in contrast, skip the details and focus on essentials. Axiom A is fox-like because the complications of friction are acknowledged from the start. Axiom G is hedgehog-like because inertial resistance to change is acknowledged but the complications of friction are left for later. It is difficult to choose between these types of theories because it is difficult to balance comprehensiveness against essentialism. On the one hand, all relevant aspects of the problem should be considered. On the other hand, don't get bogged down in endless details. This fox-hedgehog tension can be managed by weighing the context, goals and implications of the decision. We won't expand on this idea since we're not considering how to choose a theory; we're only examining why it's a difficult choice. However, the idea of resolving this tension by goal-directed choice motivates the third tension.

"Beyond this island of meanings which in their own nature are true or false
lies the ocean of meanings to which truth and falsity are irrelevant." John Dewey

The truth-meaning tension. Theories are collections of statements like axioms A and G in our first example. Statements carry meaning, and statements can be either true or false. Truth and meaning are different. For instance, "Archilochus was a Japanese belly dancer" has meaning, but is not true. The quote from Dewey expresses the idea that "meaning" is a broader description of statements than "truth". All true statements mean something, but not all meaningful statements are true. That does not imply, however, that all untrue meaningful statements are false, as we will see.

We know the meanings of words and sentences from experience with language and life. A child learns the meanings of words - chair, mom, love, good, bad - by experience. Meanings are learned by pointing - this is a chair - and also by experiencing what it means to love or to be good or bad.

Truth is a different concept. John Dewey wrote that

"truths are but one class of meanings, namely, those in which a claim to verifiability by their consequences is an intrinsic part of their meaning. Beyond this island of meanings which in their own nature are true or false lies the ocean of meanings to which truth and falsity are irrelevant. We do not inquire whether Greek civilization was true or false, but we are immensely concerned to penetrate its meaning."

A true statement, in Dewey's sense, is one that can be confirmed by experience. Many statements are meaningful, even important and useful, but neither true nor false in this experimental sense. Axiom G is an example.

Our quest is to understand why the selection of a theory is difficult. Part of the challenge derives from the tension between meaning and truth. We select a theory for use in formulating and evaluating a plan or decision. The decision has implications: what would it mean to do this rather than that? Hence it is important that the meaning of the theory fit the context of the decision. Indeed, hedgehogs would say that getting the meaning and implication right is the essence of good decision making.

But what if a relevantly meaningful theory is unprovable or even false? Should we use a theory that is meaningful but not verifiable by experience? Should we use a meaningful theory that is even wrong? This quandary is related to the fox-hedgehog tension because the fox's theory is so full of true statements that its meaning may be obscured, while the hedgehog's bare-bones theory has clear relevance to the decision to be made, but may be either false or too idealized to be tested.

Galileo's axiom of inertia is an idealization that is unsupported by experience because friction can never be avoided. Axiom G assumes conditions that cannot be realized so the axiom can never be tested. Likewise, pure competition is an idealization that is rarely if ever encountered in practice. But these theories capture the essence of many situations. In practical terms, what it means to get the robotic arm from here to there is to apply net forces that overcome Galilean inertia. But actually designing a robot requires considering details of dissipative forces like friction. What it means to be a small business is that the market price of your product is beyond your control. But actually running a business requires following and reacting to prices in the store next door.

It is difficult to choose between a relevantly meaningful but unverifiable theory, and a true theory that is perhaps not quite what we mean.

The knowledge-ignorance tension. Recall that we are discussing theories in the service of decision-making by engineers, social scientists and others. A theory should facilitate the use of our knowledge and understanding. However, in some situations our ignorance is vast and our knowledge will grow. Hence a theory should also account for ignorance and be able to accommodate new knowledge.

Let's take an example from theories of decision. The independence axiom is fundamental in various decision theories, for instance in von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory. It says that one's choices should be independent of irrelevant alternatives. Suppose you are offered the dinner choice between chicken and fish, and you choose chicken. The server returns a few minutes later saying that beef is also available. If you switch your choice from chicken to fish you are violating the independence axiom. You prefer beef less than both chicken and fish, so the beef option shouldn't alter the fish-chicken preference.

But let's suppose that when the server returned and mentioned beef, your physician advised you to reduce your cholesterol intake (so your preference for beef is lowest) which prompted your wife to say that you should eat fish at least twice a week because of vitamins in the oil. So you switch from chicken to fish. Beef is not chosen, but new information that resulted from introducing the irrelevant alternative has altered the chicken-fish preference.

One could argue for the independence axiom by saying that it applies only when all relevant information (like considerations of cholesterol and fish oil) are taken into account. On the other hand, one can argue against the independence axiom by saying that new relevant information quite often surfaces unexpectedly. The difficulty is to judge the extent to which ignorance and the emergence of new knowledge should be central in a decision theory.

Wrapping up. Theories express our knowledge and understanding about the unknown and confusing world. Knowledge begets knowledge. We use knowledge and understanding - that is, theory - in choosing a theory. The process is difficult because it's like building a boat on the open sea as Otto Neurath once said. 




se

We're Just Getting Started: A Glimpse at the History of Uncertainty


We've had our cerebral cortex for several tens of thousands of years. We've lived in more or less sedentary settlements and produced excess food for 7 or 8 thousand years. We've written down our thoughts for roughly 5 thousand years. And Science? The ancient Greeks had some, but science and its systematic application are overwhelmingly a European invention of the past 500 years. We can be proud of our accomplishments (quantum theory, polio vaccine, powered machines), and we should worry about our destructive capabilities (atomic, biological and chemical weapons). But it is quite plausible, as Koestler suggests, that we've only just begun to discover our cerebral capabilities. It is more than just plausible that the mysteries of the universe are still largely hidden from us. As evidence, consider the fact that the main theories of physics - general relativity, quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, thermodynamics - are still not unified. And it goes without say that the consilient unity of science is still far from us.

What holds for science in general, holds also for the study of uncertainty. The ancient Greeks invented the axiomatic method and used it in the study of mathematics. Some medieval thinkers explored the mathematics of uncertainty, but it wasn't until around 1600 that serious thought was directed to the systematic study of uncertainty, and statistics as a separate and mature discipline emerged only in the 19th century. The 20th century saw a florescence of uncertainty models. Lukaczewicz discovered 3-valued logic in 1917, and in 1965 Zadeh introduced his work on fuzzy logic. In between, Wald formulated a modern version of min-max in 1945. A plethora of other theories, including P-boxes, lower previsions, Dempster-Shafer theory, generalized information theory and info-gap theory all suggest that the study of uncertainty will continue to grow and diversify.

In short, we have learned many facts and begun to understand our world and its uncertainties, but the disputes and open questions are still rampant and the yet-unformulated questions are endless. This means that innovations, discoveries, inventions, surprises, errors, and misunderstandings are to be expected in the study or management of uncertainty. We are just getting started. 




se

Habit: A Response to the Unknown


David Hume explained that we believe by habit that logs will burn, stones will fall, and endless other past patterns will recur. No experiment can prove the future recurrence of past events. An experiment belongs to the future only until it is implemented; once completed, it becomes part of the past. In order for past experiments to prove something about the future, we must assume that the past will recur in the future. That's as circular as it gets.

But without the habit of believing that past patterns will recur, we would be incapacitated and ineffectual (and probably reduced to moping and sobbing). Who would dare climb stairs or fly planes or eat bread and drink wine, without the belief that, like in the past, the stairs will bear our weight, the wings will carry us aloft, and the bread and wine will nourish our body and soul. Without such habits we would become a jittering jelly of indecision in the face of the unknown.

But you can't just pull a habit out of a hat. We spend great effort instilling good habits in our children: to brush their teeth, tell the truth, and not pick on their little sister even if she deserves it.

As we get older, and I mean really older, we begin to worry that our habits become frozen, stodgy, closed-minded and constraining. Younger folks smile at our rigid ways, and try to loosen us up to the new wonders of the world: technological, culinary or musical. Changing your habits, or staying young when you aren't, isn't always easy. Without habits we're lost in an unknowable world.

And yet, openness to new ideas, tastes, sounds and other experiences of many sorts can itself be a habit, and perhaps a good one. It is the habit of testing the unknown, of acknowledging the great gap between what we do know and what we can know. That gap is an invitation to growth and awe, as well as to fear and danger.

The habit of openness to change is not a contradiction. It is simply a recognition that habits are a response to the unknown. Not everything changes all the time (or so we're in the habit of thinking), and some things are new under the sun (as newspapers and Nobel prize committees periodically remind us).

Habits, including the habit of open-mindedness, are a good thing precisely because we can never know for sure how good or bad they really are.






se

New History of Psychiatry: Melancholy, Madness, Chinese Psychiatry, Psychedelic Therapy, and More

The June 2020 issue of History of Psychiatry is now online. Full details follow below: “Wild melancholy. On the historical plausibility of a black bile theory of blood madness, or hæmatomania,” Jan Verplaetse. Abstract: Nineteenth-century art historian John Addington Symonds coined the term hæmatomania (blood madness) for the extremely bloodthirsty behaviour of a number of … Continue reading New History of Psychiatry: Melancholy, Madness, Chinese Psychiatry, Psychedelic Therapy, and More




se

CfP: Shaping the ‘Socialist Self’? The Role of Psy-Sciences in Communist States of the Eastern Bloc (1948–1989)

CALL FOR PAPERSINTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP Shaping the ‘Socialist Self’? The Role of Psy-Sciences in Communist States of the Eastern Bloc (1948–1989) Date: 6 November 2020 Venue: Prague, Czech Republic Deadline for applications: 30 June 2020 Organizing institutions: CEFRES (French Research Center in Humanities and Social Sciences in Prague) Institute of Contemporary History of the Czech Academy of Sciences Collegium Carolinum … Continue reading CfP: Shaping the ‘Socialist Self’? The Role of Psy-Sciences in Communist States of the Eastern Bloc (1948–1989)




se

May HoP, including a Special Section: Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy

Photographs of John Watson (left) and Rosalie Rayner (right) via Ben Harris. The May 2020 issue of History of Psychology is now online. The issue includes a special section on “Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy.” Full details follow below. Special Section: Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy“Journals, referees, and gatekeepers in the … Continue reading May HoP, including a Special Section: Who Was Little Albert? The Historical Controversy




se

Forthcoming in HHS: Homosexual Aversion Therapy, Comte on Organism-Environment Relationships

Two forthcoming pieces in History of the Human Sciences may be of interest to AHP readers. Full details below. “Cold War Pavlov: Homosexual aversion therapy in the 1960s,” by Kate Davison. Abstract: Homosexual aversion therapy enjoyed two brief but intense periods of clinical experimentation: between 1950 and 1962 in Czechoslovakia, and between 1962 and 1975 … Continue reading Forthcoming in HHS: Homosexual Aversion Therapy, Comte on Organism-Environment Relationships




se

This Essential Mineral Linked To COVID-19 Recovery

An essential mineral in the body have been linked to recovery of COVID-19 patients.

Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

→ Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:




se

Stress Has Risen In This Age Group More Than Any Other (M)

Even before the pandemic, this age group were reporting record levels of levels.

Support PsyBlog for just $5 per month. Enables access to articles marked (M) and removes ads.

→ Explore PsyBlog's ebooks, all written by Dr Jeremy Dean:




se

How Phone Counseling May Help Save Lives During the Covid-19 Lockdown

With the covid-19 pandemic now affecting virtually every country on earth, it is understandable that much of the world’s focus has been on protecting people’s physical health. Hand washing and social distancing is important in the fight against the coronavirus. However, it is important to remember that mental health issues may lead to loss of […]




se

Seeking Participants for a Study on How COVID-19 is Affecting Sex and Relationships

The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is causing a number of societal changes that are new to nearly all of us, with governments around the world locking down cities and countries in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus. This situation is pushing some people together, but pulling others apart—and we’ve never seen anything quite like it in the modern era. Countless media articles have been written about the ways in which this is affecting people’s sex lives and relationships; however, most of them are purely speculative. This led some of my colleagues at the Kinsey Institute and I to wonder what’s really happening—and we’ve designed a study to help us better understand how emergency situations like this affect people’s sexual and romantic lives, which may help us to better plan and prepare for similar events in the future.



  • Professional Issues in Psychology

se

Women Who Buy Sex: Why They Do It, And What Their Experiences Are Like

Most research on people who patronize sex workers has focused on men. In some ways, this isn’t surprising because men are much more likely to report having paid for sex than are women. For example, in a recent YouGov survey of 1,000 adult Americans, 12% of men reported having paid for sex before compared to just 1% of women. Similarly, in a nationally representative survey of more than 20,000 Australians aged 16-69, researchers found that 17% of men said they had paid for sex, while only 0.3% of women said the same [1]. However, these figures may significantly underreport the actual number of women who have ever engaged the services of a sex worker.




se

How Do You Help a Partner Who is Depressed? Advice From a Sex Therapist

Depression is one of the most common mental health issues in the United States. In fact, according to the National Institutes of Mental Health, 1 in 14 Americans experienced an episode of major depression in the last year alone. Given the circumstances surrounding the current COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, many in the mental health community predict that the number will be even higher this year because these circumstances are creating a “perfect storm” of depression risks. The widespread prevalence of depression has a lot of implications for our lives, even if we don’t personally have depression ourselves. Many of us will have loved ones, such as a romantic partner, who develops depression at some point. In these situations, it’s common for people to wonder how they can help their partner most effectively. So what should they do?




se

Lockdown Reading Recommendations for People Who Like to Read About Sex

I know that many of you are bored and horny right now during this lockdown and quarantine period, so allow me to recommend some of my favorite sex books! If you follow me on Instagram, you’ve probably already seen a few of my recommendations, but here’s a more extensive reading list.



  • Featured Books and Films