A new study from Poland has confirmed the potential of fungal Trichoderma species to control diseases of oilseed rape crops. The use of Trichoderma can reduce the growth of disease-causing oilseed rape pathogens, which may allow a decrease in the use of harmful pesticides.

New tool helps Housing Connector place individuals and families experiencing homelessness into privately owned homes and apartments quickly and efficiently

THE gently lapping waters of the bay are the soundtrack to this outstanding modern home at Lindisfarne.

SUFFOLK – VDOT Hampton Roads employees celebrated a major address change today with a ribbon-cutting at their new north Suffolk headquarters. The...

SUFFOLK – The Virginia Department of Transportation Hampton Roads District (VDOT) is suspending lane closures on Interstate 64 and Interstate 664...

This file is in PDF format, requiring the Adobe Acrobat Reader to open.

This file is in PDF format, requiring the Adobe Acrobat Reader to open.

The post Satellite tracking discovers elusive whale feeding grounds appeared first on The Lead SA.

Transport secretary Grant Shapps has announced a series of plans to increase cycling and walking and to ensure less public transport usage for when lockdown restrictions ease.

LYNCHBURG —What a difference a day makes. At least as far as the weather is concerned. The heavy rain and strong winds from yesterday have given way to sunny skies and a calm breeze. Unfortunately, Tropical Storm Michael’s aftermath remains a reminder.

LYNCHBURG —(4 pm) Road conditions have improved across the Lynchburg District this weekend; however, approximately 140 roads remain closed from the effects of Tropical Storm Michael late last week. Motorists, particularly those in Halifax and Pittsylvania counties, should prepare now for their morning commute. Several detours are in place and can be expected to add time to travel. In addition, caution is urged as some may be unfamiliar with the routes being used.

LYNCHBURG —(10 a.m.) Road conditions continue to improve across the Lynchburg District; however, approximately 130 roads remain closed as a result of weather from Tropical Storm Michael.

LYNCHBURG —Over a week after the rain and wind of Tropical Storm Michael took aim on the Commonwealth, the Virginia Department of Transportation continues to assess roads and bridges in the Lynchburg District affected by the storm. By the time Michael exited the area, over 220 road and 360 structures were under water and as of today (Friday, October 19) only six short-term closures, in addition to the long-term closures below, remain.

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STAUNTON – The following is a list of highway work that may affect traffic in the Staunton transportation district during the coming weeks. The Staunton district consists of 11 counties from the Alleghany Highlands to the northern Shenandoah Valley:  Alleghany, Bath, Rockbridge, Highland, Augusta, Rockingham, Page, Shenandoah, Frederick, Clarke and Warren. Scheduled work is subject to change due to inclement weather and material supplies. Motorists are advised to watch for slow-moving tractors during mowing operations. When traveling through a work zone, be alert to periodic changes in traffic patterns and lane closures.

The following is a list of highway work that may affect traffic in the Staunton transportation district during the coming weeks. The Staunton district consists of 11 counties from the Alleghany Highlands to the northern Shenandoah Valley:  Alleghany, Bath, Rockbridge, Highland, Augusta, Rockingham, Page, Shenandoah, Frederick, Clarke and Warren.

The following is a list of highway work that may affect traffic in the Staunton transportation district during the coming weeks. The Staunton district consists of 11 counties from the Alleghany Highlands to the northern Shenandoah Valley:  Alleghany, Bath, Rockbridge, Highland, Augusta, Rockingham, Page, Shenandoah, Frederick, Clarke and Warren.

This file is in PDF format, requiring the Adobe Acrobat Reader to open.

000
AGXX40 KNHC 091920
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM EDT Sat May 9 2020

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from extends from the Florida Big Bend to 28N90W to
25N95W then transitions to a stationary front to 22N98W. A
surface trough is ahead of the front in the Bay of Campeche. The
front will move to the central Gulf waters today and gradually
stall through Sun. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the SW Gulf today, and track NE toward South
Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition back to a
cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon. Numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most of the
southern and eastern Gulf waters this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sun night. The
aerial extent of the strong trades will diminish and reduce to
the south-central Caribbean for the remainder period.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front extending from 31N77W to 29N81W will move across
the waters N of the Bahamas through Sun. Weak low pressure in
the Gulf of Mexico will track NE across south Florida into the
Bahamas Sun through Mon night enhancing winds and generating
numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the low, a
cold front will move across the northern and central waters
through Mon night, then stall from near 29N65W to central Cuba
late Tue.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Ramos. National Hurricane Center.

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 161752
TCMEP2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVENTEEN-E
SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172019
1800 UTC WED OCT 16 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 96.6W AT 16/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 96.6W AT 16/1800Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 96.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 
 000
 TCCA23 KNHC 251546
 STDWCA
 SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 1545 UTC SAT APR 25 2020
  
 SYSTEM NAME                       DATE/TIME          LOCATION
 -----------                       ---------          --------
 INVEST [90E]                      25/1200 UTC          14N 116W 
 
 RAINFALL ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE VIA QMORPH...
 24-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 12-12 UTC- 130MM AT 13N 119W
 6-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 06-12 UTC- 30MM AT 13N 119W
 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN MM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM 06-12 UTC...
  
 LATITUDE............................LONGITUDE......................
 .......119W-118W 118W-117W 117W-116W 116W-115W 115W-114W 114W-113W
 16N-17N   0- 10     0- 10     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 15N-16N   0-  0     0- 10     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 14N-15N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 13N-14N   0- 20     0- 20     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 12N-13N  10- 30     0- 10     0- 10     0- 20     0- 30     0-  0
 11N-12N   0- 20     0- 10     0- 10     0- 20     0- 20     0- 10
 ...................................................................
 
 RAINFALL ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE VIA NRL-BLEND...
 24-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 12-12 UTC- 0MM AT 0N 0W
 6-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 06-12 UTC- 0MM AT 0N 0W
 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN MM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM 06-12 UTC...
  
 LATITUDE............................LONGITUDE......................
 .......119W-118W 118W-117W 117W-116W 116W-115W 115W-114W 114W-113W
 16N-17N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 15N-16N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 14N-15N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 13N-14N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 12N-13N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 11N-12N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 ...................................................................
 
 RAINFALL ESTIMATED FROM 06 UTC 25 APR GFS MODEL RUN...
 24-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 12-12 UTC- 260MM AT 13N 116W
 6-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 06-12 UTC- 50MM AT 13N 116W
 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN MM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM 06-12 UTC...
  
 LATITUDE............................LONGITUDE......................
 .......119W-118W 118W-117W 117W-116W 116W-115W 115W-114W 114W-113W
 16N-17N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 15N-16N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0-  0     0-  0
 14N-15N   0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10
 13N-14N   0-  0     0-  0     0- 50     0- 30     0-  0     0- 10
 12N-13N   0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 10     0-  0    10- 10
 11N-12N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 10
 ...................................................................
 
 
 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SATELLITE AND MODEL-DERIVED RAINFALL
 ESTIMATES INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED
 
 RAINFALL MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF TERRAIN
 
 PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY FOR THE
 OFFICIAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES
 
 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
 HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE/RAINFALL
 
 FORECASTER TAFB
 
 $$
  
  
  
 NNNN
 

 
 000
 TCCA21 KNHC 191546
 STDECA
 SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 1545 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019
  
 SYSTEM NAME                       DATE/TIME          LOCATION
 -----------                       ---------          --------
 INVEST [90L]                      19/1200 UTC          20N 59W 
 
 RAINFALL ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE VIA QMORPH...
 24-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 12-12 UTC- 40MM AT 22N 56W
 6-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 06-12 UTC- 10MM AT 22N 56W
 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN MM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM 06-12 UTC...
  
 LATITUDE............................LONGITUDE......................
 ....... 62W- 61W  61W- 60W  60W- 59W  59W- 58W  58W- 57W  57W- 56W
 22N-23N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0- 10
 21N-22N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0- 10
 20N-21N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 19N-20N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 18N-19N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 17N-18N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0-  0
 ...................................................................
 
 RAINFALL ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE VIA NRL-BLEND...
 24-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 12-12 UTC- 0MM AT 0N 0W
 6-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 06-12 UTC- 0MM AT 0N 0W
 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN MM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM 06-12 UTC...
  
 LATITUDE............................LONGITUDE......................
 ....... 62W- 61W  61W- 60W  60W- 59W  59W- 58W  58W- 57W  57W- 56W
 22N-23N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 21N-22N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 20N-21N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 19N-20N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 18N-19N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 17N-18N 999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999   999-999
 ...................................................................
 
 RAINFALL ESTIMATED FROM 06 UTC 19 NOV GFS MODEL RUN...
 24-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 12-12 UTC- 180MM AT 20N 57W
 6-HR RAINFALL MAXIMUM FROM 06-12 UTC- 30MM AT 20N 57W
 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN MM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS FROM 06-12 UTC...
  
 LATITUDE............................LONGITUDE......................
 ....... 62W- 61W  61W- 60W  60W- 59W  59W- 58W  58W- 57W  57W- 56W
 22N-23N   0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10
 21N-22N   0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10
 20N-21N   0-  0     0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 20     0- 20
 19N-20N   0-  0     0- 10     0- 10    10- 10    10- 30    10- 30
 18N-19N   0-  0     0- 10     0- 10    10- 10    10- 10     0- 10
 17N-18N   0-  0     0-  0     0- 10     0- 10     0- 10    10- 10
 ...................................................................
 
 
 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SATELLITE AND MODEL-DERIVED RAINFALL
 ESTIMATES INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED
 
 RAINFALL MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF TERRAIN
 
 PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY FOR THE
 OFFICIAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES
 
 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
 HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE/RAINFALL
 
 FORECASTER TAFB
 
 $$
  
  
  
 NNNN
 

Infectious Disease Advisor editor Natasha Priya Dyal, M.D., joins The PR Week to discuss the one topic on everyone's mind: COVID-19.

PwC external communications leader Megan DiSciullo talks about her switch from agency life to leading external comms at PwC, as well as the latest industry news.

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091543
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1503 UTC Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 07N122W. The
ITCZ extends from there to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 90W, from 03N to
11N between 94W and 114W, and from 05N to 07W west of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from 30N128W through the
Revillagigedo Islands to 14N96W. As a result, winds this morning
off of Mexico and in the Gulf of California were only moderate
breeze or weaker. High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico
will promote strong N gap winds across the Tehuantepec region
late tonight and continue through Mon night. Peak seas should
reach 10-12 ft due to N wind waves and SW swell. Elsewhere
tranquil conditions are expected across the area through at least
Wed night.

Long period SW swell will impact the waters through Monday. An
altimeter pass showed peak seas of 8 to 9 ft south of Mexico
late last night.

Haze and areas of smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may
reduce visibilities near the coast from the Tehuantepec region to
near Cabo Corrientes.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A flat pressure gradient over the waters is forcing winds of
only fresh breeze or weaker. Winds will remain tranquil during
the next several days.

Large, long period SW swell will continue to impact the offshore
waters of Central America, Ecuador and Colombia through the
weekend before gradually fading. Peak seas observed by an
altimeter pass last night were around 10 ft between the Galapagos
and Ecuador.

Haze and areas of smoke may reduce visibilities near the coasts
of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala during the next few
days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends from 30N128W through the
Revillagigedo Islands to 14N96W. The relatively flat pressure
gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ is causing NE trades of
generally moderate breeze or weaker this morning. Peak seas are 8
to 10 ft east of 120W and south of 15N, primarily due to long-
period SW swell.

A weak cold front will reach our NW corner of 30N140W Sun morning
and progress to 30N132W to 24N140W Mon morning, before
dissipating by Tue morning. SW winds ahead and NW winds behind
the front should remain fresh breeze or weaker. A NW swell of 8
to 10 ft will impact the waters north of 25N west of 130W Sun
night through Tue morning. Elsewhere winds should remain tranquil
through at least Wed night.

Large, long period SW swell will continue to impact the high seas
waters south of 15N and east of 125W through the weekend before
gradually fading. Peak seas observed by an altimeter pass last
night were around 10 ft well west of the Galapagos.

$$
Landsea

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EDT Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N24W to 00N38W to 00N50W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between 09W-
22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 300 nm of the
ITCZ between 32W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida to 28N93W to 26N96W,
then transitions to a stationary front from 26N96W to the coast
of Mexico near 22N98W and inland to beyond 25N101W. As of 1500
UTC, a weak 1014 low is analyzed along the front near 25N96W.
Numerous strong convection is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico
from 19N-24N between 93.5W-96.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is elsewhere inside the points
bounded by 29N96W to 29N90W to 25N92W to 23N86W to 19N97W to
29N96W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds over the
northern Gulf, north of the cold front and northwest of the
surface low near the Texas coast.

An area of strong winds are also seen off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SE
Gulf, as an E-W surface ridge is seen extending along 25N from
73W-88W.

The cold front will move S to the central Gulf waters later
today and gradually stall through Sun. The weak low pressure
over the SW Gulf will track east-northeastward toward South
Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition back to a
cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will impact most of the southern and
eastern Gulf waters through the rest of this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging prevails over the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over
the western Caribbean. A weak surface trough over Cuba is
inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms north of 20N
between 77W-88W.

Farther south, troughing extending from the east Pacific over
Central America is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from
the eastern coast of Honduras to Panama, and extending out
offshore to 60 nm from the Caribbean coast of Central America. A
recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades between 67W-75W, with
fresh trades elsewhere from 10.5N-18N between 63W-79W. Moderate
winds are seen elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sun night. The
aerial extent of the strong trades will diminish and will be
confined to the south-central Caribbean through the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the waters east of northern Florida and
extends from 32N75W to Daytona Beach Florida to the western Gulf
of Mexico. Fresh winds prevail on both sides of the cold front
north of 28N between 69W-81W. Strong winds are north of 30N.
Only isolated showers are noted with this front. The front will
move across the waters N of the Bahamas through Sun.

A cold front extends from 32N46W to 28N52W to 25.5N61W. It
continues WSW as a stationary front from 25.5N61W to the Bahamas
near 23N75W. A surface trough is analyzed from 23N75W across
Cuba to 21N83W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over
portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas from 22N-24N
between 72.5W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
elsewhere within 60 nm of the surface trough and stationary
front. Isolated showers are along the cold front. A 1025 mb high
is centered near 29N37W. A weak surface trough extends across
the Canary Islands from 31N14W to 25N23W with isolated showers.

Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will track ENE across
South Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon night, enhancing
winds and generating numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the
wake of the low, a cold front will move across the waters east
of Florida and the northern Bahamas through Mon night, then
stall from near 29N65W to central Cuba late Tue.

$$
Hagen

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250232
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019
1100 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019

Sebastien has lost its tropical characteristics this evening. The
deep convection has decoupled from the low-level circulation, and
these features are now separated by a distance of 100 n mi and
increasing. Two partial ASCAT passes revealed that the surface low
is becoming stretched out, and there is some evidence of a boundary,
possibly a front, extending northeast from the center. Furthermore,
recent observations from Corbo and Flores islands in the Azores
indicated a slight temperature decrease as the center passed by to
the north of those islands, suggesting that a weak cold front is
associated with the the cyclone. Based on all of these data, there
is high confidence that Sebastien has transitioned to an
extratropical cyclone. The initial advisory intensity is 50 kt which
is based on 47 kt winds sampled by the scatterometer and a
subjective intensity estimate from TAFB.

Post-tropical cyclone Sebastien is moving northeastward at 35 kt,
embedded in the strong flow to the southeast of a mid- to upper-
level trough. This motion, and the cyclone's current intensity, is
expected to persist for the next day or so, before the cyclone
merges with a higher-latitude low.

The cyclone will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains to
portions of the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products
issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere
(IPMA) for more details.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 41.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 22.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/0000Z 48.1N 14.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

...

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171432
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019

Raymond has degenerated into a remnant low with 25-kt winds.
Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated and that
the thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of minimum
pressure due to very strong wind shear. In addition, observations
from the Mexican Navy automatic station at Isla Socorro which is
located near Raymond indicate that winds are between 15 and 20 kt.

The low is moving northward around 14 kt, but this motion is
uncertain since the circulation is elongated and poorly defined.
Raymond's remnants are expected to move northward and then
north-northwestward and eventually become absorbed by a large
developing trough west of the Baja California peninsula in about 24
to 36 hours.

The combination of the remnants of Raymond and the developing
trough west of the peninsula will bring heavy rains into southern
portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

This is the last NHC advisory on Raymond. For additional information
about the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

807
WTPZ44 KNHC 210234
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Priscilla Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The rugged terrain of Mexico has taken a toll on Priscilla. Surface
observations indicate that the system no longer has a closed
surface circulation, and therefore this is the last advisory
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

Even though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is
still a fair amount of deep convection associated with the
remnant trough over portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico. Since the surface trough is expected to linger for another
couple of days over southwestern Mexico, there remains a significant
threat of heavy rains and flash flooding over that region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.0N 104.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Neptune Energy has revealed that two 'important' hydrocarbon discoveries have been made northwestern Germany.

Operations have been completed on the Ehecatl-1 exploration well on Block 7, located in the Sureste Basin Offshore Mexico.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161752
TCDEP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance has become less organized, and there is no sign of a
new center forming offshore at this time. So, while there is still
a small chance that the system could form into a tropical cyclone,
the system no longer poses a threat of bringing tropical-storm
conditions to the coast of Mexico, and this special advisory is
being issued to discontinue the tropical storm watch for the coast
of Mexico. The disturbance should continue to interact with the
mountains of southern Mexico during the next day or so, which should
most likely cause its dissipation after 12 h.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system unless the threat of tropical storm conditions
increases along the coast of Mexico. However, the heavy rainfall
threat, as well as the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
in southern Mexico, should continue for the next day or two.
Please refer to forecasts and warnings from the Meteorological
Service of Mexico for more information on this ongoing threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1800Z 16.6N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT42 KNHC 260253
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga made by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone
becoming embedded within a cold front. Strong northwesterly flow was
observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga's center and a sharp
temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone.
It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any
significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface
observations suggest that either the front passes through the center
of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based
on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this
is the last NHC advisory.

Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas
associated the front are now considered to be representative of the
overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at
45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt
found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga's
strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday
morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi
Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great
Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated
before the end of the weekend.

Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated
tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical
Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible
tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information
specific to your area, please see products from your local weather
service office at weather.gov.

Key messages:

1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about
hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes
can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service
forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 27.8N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
WTNT43 KNHC 281440
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection
near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and
showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now
become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to
35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the
scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force
winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with
Pablo.

The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over
the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger
mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the
Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 262035
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020
200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

The cyclone has lacked significant organized deep convection for at
least 10 hours, and the system is moving into increasingly more
stable air and over sub-25C deg C SSTs. Therefore, the depression
has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. The initial
intensity is 25 kt is based on several 23-25 kt wind vectors located
n-e of the low-level center in a 1718 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. Although
the system may still produce some sporadic convection late tonight
during the convective maximum period, dry and stable air along with
strong westerly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection
from persisting over the next day or so. This should cause the
remnant low to weaken and then open up into a trough in 36-48 hours.

The initial motion remains 305/08 kt. A substantial low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually
nudge the shallow low toward the west-northwest later this
afternoon, followed by a westward motion tonight, with that motion
continuing until the system dissipates Monday night. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010832
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rebekah Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019
500 AM AST Fri Nov 01 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Rebekah has degenerated to a
remnant low as the circulation remains void of deep convection. In
addition, the system is starting to merge with a weak frontal system
over the northeastern Atlantic. Re-development of deep convection
appears unlikely, and the remnants of Rebekah are expected to
weaken to a trough between 12-24 h.

The initial motion is 095/17, and a slightly faster eastward motion
is expected until the system dissipates.

This is the last advisory issued on Rebekah by the National
Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2. Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular
products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and
Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at
https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 40.6N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 01/1800Z 40.2N 24.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192041
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on
St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that
center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between
Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new
center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded
frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved
inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on
a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters
elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia.

The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt.
Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or
so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the
North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is
expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a
weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should
then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore
of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the
tightly packed model guidance envelope.

Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the
robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far
western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The
official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200
UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Key Messages:

1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters
and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and
spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday.

2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart