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Metabolic Endotoxemia Initiates Obesity and Insulin Resistance

Patrice D. Cani
Jul 1, 2007; 56:1761-1772
Obesity Studies




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Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and the Development of Type 2 Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Bruce B. Duncan
Jul 1, 2003; 52:1799-1805
Pathophysiology




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Diabetes in China: Epidemiology and Genetic Risk Factors and Their Clinical Utility in Personalized Medication

Cheng Hu
Jan 1, 2018; 67:3-11
Perspectives in Diabetes




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The Pathobiology of Diabetic Complications: A Unifying Mechanism

Michael Brownlee
Jun 1, 2005; 54:1615-1625
Banting Lecture 2004




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Latent Autoimmune Diabetes in Adults: Definition, Prevalence, {beta}-Cell Function, and Treatment

Gunnar Stenström
Dec 1, 2005; 54:S68-S72
Section II: Type 1-Related Forms of Diabetes




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Correction: A dual druggable genome-wide siRNA and compound library screening approach identifies modulators of parkin recruitment to mitochondria. [Additions and Corrections]

VOLUME 295 (2020) PAGES 3285–3300An incorrect graph was used in Fig. 5C. This error has now been corrected. Additionally, some of the statistics reported in the legend and text referring to Fig. 5C were incorrect. The F statistics for Fig. 5C should state Fken(3,16) = 7.454, p < 0.01; FCCCP(1,16) = 102.9, p < 0.0001; Finteraction(3,16) = 7.480, p < 0.01. This correction does not affect the results or conclusions of this work.jbc;295/17/5835/F5F1F5Figure 5C.




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Posey expects to be ready for Opening Day

Buster Posey plans to be on the field when Giants pitchers and catchers begin their first workout at Scottsdale Stadium on Wednesday, and if his rehab from right hip surgery continues to go well, he expects the same for Opening Day.




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Predicting the Giants' Opening Day roster

With Spring Training set to kick off Tuesday, it feels like an opportune time to put together a way-too-early look at who might be with the Giants when they begin their regular season against the Padres on March 28.




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Uniform patch to mark 150 years of pro baseball

All 30 Major League teams will wear special "MLB 150" patches on their uniforms for the entire 2019 season in honor of the 150th anniversary of the 1869 Cincinnati Red Stockings, the first openly all-salaried professional baseball team.




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The Giants' Spring Training battle to watch

The next five weeks will see lots of shuffling on Major League rosters. Here are the most intriguing positional battles on each of the 30 MLB clubs.




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Widening the drug trial net has the potential to reduce respiratory failure




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Online CBT is trialled for children with chronic fatigue syndrome




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How changes to drug prohibition could be good for the UK—an essay by Molly Meacher and Nick Clegg




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Chronic insomnia: diagnosis and non-pharmacological management




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Marking failure, making space: feminist intervention in Security Council policy

6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6

Sam Cook

Feminist interventions in international politics are, more often than not, understood (and visible) as interventions in relation to policy documents. These policies—in this case the United Nations Security Council's resolutions on Women, Peace and Security—often feature as the end point of feminist advocacy efforts or as the starting point for feminist analysis and critique. In this article the author responds to the provocations throughout Marysia Zalewski's work to think (and tell) the spaces of international politics differently, in this case by working with the concept of feminist failure as it is produced in feminist policy critique. Inspired by Zalewski's Feminist International Relations: exquisite corpse, the article explores the material and imaginary spaces in which both policies and critique are produced. It picks up and reflects upon a narrative refrain recognizable in feminist critiques on Women, Peace and Security policy—that we must not make war safe for women—as a way to reflect on the inevitability of failure and the ostensible boundaries between theory and practice. The author takes permission from Zalewski's creative interventions and her recognition of the value of the ‘detritus of the everyday’—here a walk from New York's Grand Central Station to the UN Headquarters, musings on the flash of a particular shade of blue, and the contents of a footnoted acknowledgement, begin to trace an international political space that is produced through embodied and quotidian practice.




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Brexit and the UN Security Council: declining British influence?

6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6

Jess Gifkins, Samuel Jarvis and Jason Ralph

The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union has ramifications beyond the UK and the EU. This article analyses the impact of the Brexit referendum on the UK's political capital in the United Nations Security Council; a dimension of Brexit that has received little attention thus far. Drawing on extensive elite interviews we show that the UK has considerable political capital in the Council, where it is seen as one of the most effective actors, but the reputational costs of Brexit are tarnishing this image. With case-studies on the UK's role in Somalia and Yemen we show how the UK has been able to further its interests with dual roles in the EU and Security Council, and the risks posed by tensions between trade and human rights after Brexit. We also analyse what it takes to be influential within the Security Council and argue that more attention should be paid to the practices of diplomacy. Influence is gained via penholding, strong diplomatic skill and a well-regarded UN permanent representative. The UK accrues political capital as a leader on the humanitarian and human rights side of the Council's agenda, but this reputation is at risk as it exits the EU.




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Investigating Violations of International Humanitarian Law

Research Event

21 January 2020 - 5:30pm to 7:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Andrew Cayley, Director, Service Prosecuting Authority, UK Ministry of Defence
Larry Lewis, Vice President and Director, Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence, CNA
Jelena Pejic, Senior Legal Adviser, International Committee of the Red Cross
Chair: Elizabeth Wilmshurst, Distinguished Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House
Countries should have adequate systems in place for investigating violations of international humanitarian law, for launching criminal prosecutions for war crimes and for inquiring into responsibility for unlawful actions of national armed forces. There also needs to be proper counting and recording of the civilian casualties of military operations.
 
This event, which will be introduced by the director of the UK Service Prosecuting Authority, Andrew Cayley, will discuss the new report by the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law, Guidelines on Investigating Violations of International Humanitarian Law: Law, Policy and Good Practice, as well as the problems and challenges associated with recording civilian casualties of armed conflict.
 
This meeting is the third in a series of three commemorating the 70th anniversary of the 1949 Geneva Conventions supported by the British Red Cross. It will be followed by a drinks reception.

Jacqueline Rowe

Programme Assistant, International Law Programme
020 7389 3287




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Webinar: International Humanitarian Law Amid Coronavirus

Members Event Webinar

15 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm
Add to Calendar

Emanuela-Chiara Gillard, Associate Fellow, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Chair: Chanu Peiris, Programme Manager, International Law Programme, Chatham House

Further speakers to be announced.

In April 2020, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for a global ceasefire in order for communities and states to focus efforts on responding to the coronavirus outbreak. The consequences of armed conflict – including displacement, detention, lack of access to health services and disrupted social infrastructures – mean that those in conflict-ridden areas are amongst the most vulnerable to the virus. Observing international humanitarian law (IHL) could be one way of safeguarding against, at least, the provision of vital medical supplies and personnel for vulnerable groups. Against the backdrop of a growing health and economic emergency that is otherwise dominating government agendas, how do we emphasise the importance of humanitarian action and guarantee - or improve - compliance?

The panellists will discuss the remit and limitations of international humanitarian law and how the pandemic might complicate compliance. What is the framework for humanitarian action under international humanitarian law? What are the challenges to delivering relief? And how has COVID-19 impacted humanitarian action in conflict-ridden areas?

This event is for Chatham House members only. Not a member? Find out more.




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Accountability, denial and the future-proofing of British torture

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Ruth Blakeley and Sam Raphael

When powerful liberal democratic states are found to be complicit in extreme violations of human rights, how do they respond and why do they respond as they do? Drawing on the example of the United Kingdom's complicity in torture since 9/11, this article demonstrates how reluctant the UK has been to permit a full reckoning with its torturous past. We demonstrate that successive UK governments engaged in various forms of denial, obfuscation and attempts to obstruct investigation and avoid accountability. The net effect of their responses has been to deny the victims redress, through adequate judicial processes, and to deny the public adequate state accountability. These responses are not simply aimed at shielding from prosecution the perpetrators and those who have oversight of them, nor preventing political embarrassment. The various forms of denial and obstruction are also designed to ensure that collusion can continue uninterrupted. A core concern of intelligence officials and ministers has been to prevent any process that would lead to a comprehensive prohibition on involvement in operations where torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment are a real possibility. The door remains wide open, and deliberately so, for British involvement in torture.




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Louis Nirenberg

Louis Nirenberg died January 26, 2020 at the age of 94.  He made tremendous contributions to the field of partial differential equations and global analysis.   Nirenberg spent essentially his entire career at the Courant Institute at NYU.  Indeed, he … Continue reading




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The UK, US and Mauritius: Decolonization, Security, Chagos and the ICJ

Invitation Only Research Event

30 January 2020 - 8:15am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Professor Philippe Sands QC, Professor of Law, UCL 
Richard Burt, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme; Dean, Queen Elizabeth II Academy, Chatham House

The Chagos archipelago in the Indian Ocean has garnered media attention recently after the UK failed to abide by a UN deadline to return the islands to Mauritius. The US has landed in the middle of the dispute as a 1965 agreement with the UK has allowed the US to establish a military base on one of the islands, Diego Garcia, which has since become instrumental in US missions in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. 

In February 2019, an Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that the Chagos archipelago was unlawfully dismembered from Mauritius, in violation of the right to self-determination and that the United Kingdom is under an obligation to end its administration of the Chagos archipelago ‘as rapidly as possible’. The UN General Assembly subsequently voted overwhelmingly in favour of the UK leaving the islands by the end of November 2019 and the right of the former residents who were removed by the UK to return. The UK does not accept the ICJ and UN rulings and argues that the islands are needed to protect Britain from security threats while Mauritius has made clear the base can remain.

Professor Philippe Sands QC, professor of law at University College London and lead counsel for Mauritius on the ICJ case on Legal Consequences of the Separation of the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius in 1965, will be joining Ambassador Richard Burt, US chief negotiator in the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks with the former Soviet Union for a discussion on the fate of the archipelago including the future of the military base and the right of return of former residents.  

Attendance at this event is by invitation only. 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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Reflections from the Munich Security Conference on America’s Role in the World

Invitation Only Research Event

17 February 2020 - 8:00am to 9:15am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Senator Chris Coons, United States Senator, Delaware
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme

In the aftermath of World War II, the United States cemented its role as the leader of a new global order, characterized by the creation of international institutions and treaties like the United Nations and North Atlantic Treaty Organization. More recently, however, the United States has appeared to take an inward turn, a trend which has been mirrored across the globe and has led to the international order being challenged more now than ever before.

As the Trump administration and US members of Congress attempt to address multiple challenges from a rising China and a disruptive Russia to a nuclear North Korea and shifting Middle East, Senator Chris Coons will offer his vision for restoring American leadership on the world stage.What is the role of Congress in setting and shaping US foreign policy?  How will the outcome of the consequential 2020 elections shape the future of America’s global role? Would a change in administration necessarily increase prospects of American reengagement, and if so, across which international spheres?

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

US and Americas Programme




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Exploring the Obstacles and Opportunities for Expanded UK-Latin American Trade and Investment

Invitation Only Research Event

14 January 2020 - 8:30am to 11:00am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Trade and investment between the UK and Latin America is woefully underdeveloped. Latin America’s agricultural powerhouses Brazil and Argentina only accounted for a total of 1.6% of the UK’s agricultural market across eight sectors in 2018, all of those areas in which Argentina and Brazil have substantial comparative advantages. 

Conversely, UK exports to the large Latin American economies remain far below their potential.  To cite a few examples, in 2018 in the electrical equipment sector, the UK only exported $95.7 million of those products to Brazil, making the ninth largest economy in the world only the 42nd export market for those goods from the UK; Mexico only imported $91.4 million of UK-made electrical goods, placing it directly behind Brazil as UK’s market for those goods.

As we look to the future, any improvement to the relationship will depend on two factors: 1) how the UK leaves the EU and 2) whether Latin American agricultural producers can improve their environmental practices and can meet the production standards established by the EU and likely maintained by a potential post-Brexit Britain.

In the first meeting of the working group,  Chatham House convened a range of policymakers, practitioners and academics to explore this topic in depth, identify the key issues driving this trend, and begin to consider how improvements might best be made. Subsequent meetings will focus on specific sectors in commerce and investment.

We would like to thank BTG Pactual, Cairn Energy plc, Diageo, Equinor, Fresnillo Management Services, HSBC Holdings plc and Wintershall Dea for their generous support of the Latin America Initiative.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

US and Americas Programme




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Virtual Roundtable: Tectonic Plates of 2020 – Developments in the US Presidential Race

Invitation Only Research Event

18 March 2020 - 1:00pm to 1:45pm

Event participants

John Zogby, Founder and Senior Partner, John Zogby Strategies
Chair: Dr Lindsay Newman, Senior Research Fellow, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US, Americas and the State of the World and will take place virtually only. Participants should not come to Chatham House for these events.

US and Americas Programme




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Virtual Roundtable: The End of Globalism? Remaining Interconnected While Under Increased Pressure to Isolate

Invitation Only Research Event

30 March 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Zoom Audio Call

Event participants

Fred Hochberg, Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of the United States, 2009 -17
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. We would like to take this opportunity to to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc and EY for their generous support of the forum. 

US and Americas Programme




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Reimagining Trade Rules to Address Climate Change in a Post-Pandemic World

Webinar Research Event

5 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

James Bacchus, Distinguished University Professor of Global Affairs and Director of the Center for Global Economic and Environmental Opportunity at the University of Central Florida; Member and Chair, WTO Appellate Body, 1995 - 2003
Chair: Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum and will take place virtually only.

International trade has a crucial role to play in tackling climate change. The production and transport of goods is a major contributor to green-house gas emissions, as is the delivery of certain cross-border services. At the same time, it looks inevitable that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a radical re-think of global supply chains as companies and governments seek to build in greater resilience while at the same time preserving as far as possible the efficiency gains and lower costs that global supply chains generate when operating normally.

Future international trade rules will have a crucial role to play in addressing both challenges; they represent both an opportunity and a risk. If designed well, they could play a very important role in re-enforcing moves towards a more sustainable use of resources, greater overall alignment of economies with the Paris Agreement, and greater economic resilience. But they could also, if poorly designed and implemented, or overly influenced by strategic political considerations, have significant unintended and negative implications. These include: reduced economic efficiency, increased poverty, unnecessary economic decoupling and reduced consensus on the broader mitigation and adaptation measures required to meet the challenge of climate change.

Against this background, a number of key questions arise: In what areas, if any, do we need to modify or adapt key principles underlying the system of global trade rules in order to respond to the twin challenges of responding to climate change and building greater economic resilience?  Which are the most promising/practical areas on which trade policy experts should focus now to re-launch/re-energize discussions on WTO reform, including, for example, dispute settlement? What national economic policies will be needed to complement the development of new/reformed trade disciplines in these areas? How might future political changes, such as a change in the US administration, affect the prospects for and political momentum behind such deliberations? What in any eventuality is the best way to build the required political momentum?
 
This roundtable is convened by the Global Economy and Finance Programme and the US and the Americas Programme and it is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. The event will take place virtually only.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc, and EY for their generous support of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.

Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST.




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Diabetes Core Update: Covid-19 - Planning Sick Days April 2019

This special issue focuses on Diabetes, Covid-19 and managing patient’s diabetes when they are sick.

Recorded April 1, 2020.

This podcast will cover:

  1. How do we help our patients with diabetes stay safe
  2. Helping patient negotiate safety issues in the workplace
  3. Safety Issues when people do not come in for care
  4. Managing SGLT-2 inhibitors during the pandemic
  5. Home detection and care of DKA
  6. Renewing Medications
  7. Telemedicine Visits

Intended for practicing physicians and health care professionals, Diabetes Core Update discusses how the latest research and information published in journals of the American Diabetes Association are relevant to clinical practice and can be applied in a treatment setting.

Presented by:

Louis Philipson, MD, PhD, ADA Past President, Medicine & Science, University of Chicago

Anne Peters, MD, Diabetologist, University of Southern California




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NICE recommends implantable monitor to identify atrial fibrillation after stroke




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Covid-19: NHS bosses told to assess risk to ethnic minority staff who may be at greater risk




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Covid-19: GPs have a fortnight to start organising weekly care home reviews, says NHS




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Covid-19: Lack of capacity led to halting of community testing in March, admits deputy chief medical officer




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Covid-19: Nightingale hospitals set to shut down after seeing few patients




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Covid-19: Trump says added deaths are necessary price for reopening US businesses




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The soaring joy of a family reunion




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PERMEN AILIDA CANDY OBAT PERANGSANG WANITA - Rahasia Pria

Permen Ailida Candy Obat Perangsang merupakan perangsang wanita herbal yang berbentu permen candy denga rasa manis seperti buah untuk meningkatkan gairah



  • Sports and Health

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Fly Obat Perangsang Wanita Cair herbal Cepat Reaksi - Rahasia Pria

Fly Obat Perangsang Wanita Cair Alami adalah perangsang khusus wanita frigid berbentuk cair yang di teteskan di minuman untuk merangsang menambah libido



  • Sports and Health

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POTENZOL OBAT PERANGSANG WANITA CAIR ALAMI - Rahasia Pria

Potenzol Obat Perangsang Wanita produk jerman menyandang predikat obat perangsang dengan reaksi spontan menaikkan libido wanita menjadi lebih bergairah



  • Sports and Health

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Obat Perangsang Libido Wanita Blue Wizard - Rahasia Pria

Obat Perangsang Libido Wanita Blue Wizard Adalah Obat Perangsang Wanita Alami Yang Berasal Dari Jerman, Sangat Manjur Untuk Wanita Kurang Bergairah (Firgid)



  • Sports and Health

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US$10,000 gofundme launched to support animals at Hope Zoo

A gofundme account has been launched with the hope of keeping animals feed and to preserve endangered wildlife at the Hope Zoo in St Andrew. Curator, Joey Brown, organiser of the fundraiser, indicated that as a non-profit organisation,...




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UTech community in mourning over passing of lecturer

The University of Technology, Jamaica (UTech) fraternity has been plunged into mourning following the death of lecturer Jamar Thelwell. The 34-year-old passed away yesterday from cancer. His colleague Jerome Shepherd said Thelwell’s death has...




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Some 25 charities, organisations to benefit from AFJ grant

The Open Arms Development Centre, a homeless shelter in downtown Kingston, and Jamaica’s COVID-19 Response Fund Food Relief are among 25 charitable and community organisations across the island to benefit from the latest round of grants from US-...




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Thirty Years of Armenian-Azerbaijani Rivalry: Dynamics, Problems and Prospects

Invitation Only Research Event

20 November 2019 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Lubica Pollakova, Senior Programme Manager, Russia and Eurasia Programme

The Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict for control of the mountainous territory of Nagorny Karabakh is the longest-running dispute in post-Soviet Eurasia.

Laurence Broers, author of Armenia and Azerbaijan: Anatomy of a Rivalry, will discuss how decades of dynamic territorial politics, shifting power relations, international diffusion and unsuccessful mediation efforts have contributed to the resilience of this stubbornly unresolved dispute.

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Ryhor Astapenia

Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme

Biography

Ryhor’s research examines the roles of the Belarusian political elites in the decision-making process within the country, and their interaction with the European Union institutions.

Ryhor is founder of the Centre for New Ideas, a Minsk-based nonpartisan CSO promoting democratic reforms in Belarus. He received his PhD in Political Science at the University of Warsaw and previously worked as a development director and analyst at the Ostrogorski Centre, a Belarusian think tank.

Ryhor has cooperated with a number of civil society organisations in Eastern Europe and has written for Belarusian and Western media outlets and think tanks, including the Washington Post, the Guardian, the European Council on Foreign Relations, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

Areas of expertise

  • Belarusian domestic politics
  • Belarusian foreign policy
  • Belarusian political economy
  • Transformations in post-Soviet space

Past experience

2012 - presentFounder, Centre for New Ideas
2013-18PhD in Political Science, Warsaw University
2012-17Analyst and development director, Ostrogorski Centre




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The New Orthodox Church of Ukraine: Opportunities and Challenges of Canonical Independence

Invitation Only Research Event

22 January 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Archbishop Yevstraty (Zoria) of Chernihiv, Deputy Head of Department for External Church Relations, Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Orthodox Church of Ukraine)

In January 2019, the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople granted the Orthodox Church of Ukraine a self-governing status, ending its centuries-long subordination to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Russian Orthodox Church condemned this decision and severed its links with the Constantinople Patriarchate.

More than 500 parishes have left the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to join the newly independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

What challenges is the new church facing? Has its independence been recognized by other Orthodox churches? How is it affected by the schism between Constantinople and Moscow? What are UOC’s priorities in relations with the West and with the Orthodox world?

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Screening Room: Parts of a Circle - History of the Karabakh Conflict

Members Event

18 February 2020 - 6:00pm to 8:00pm

Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

Event participants

Jenny Norton, Producer, Parts of a Circle: History of the Karabakh Conflict
Famil Ismayilov, Journalist
Leon Aslanov, Middle East Analyst, Integrity UK
Chair: Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House; Director, Caucasus Programme, Conciliation Resources

Once an autonomous region populated mainly by Armenians in Soviet Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh, is a contested territory in the Caucasus. Since the late 1980s, its contested status has driven popular mobilization among Armenians and Azerbaijanis and an all-out war between 1992-94. After a quarter-century of enmity and military build-up, in 2019, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders agreed to ‘prepare their populations for peace’ but how would this work in practice?

Parts of a Circle: History of the Karabakh Conflict (2019) chronicles the disputed history of the decades-old conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Supported by the European Union and based on a series of three documentary films jointly produced over four years by Armenian and Azerbaijani production teams, the film showcases journalistic cooperation in bridging societies in conflict.

The screening was followed by a panel discussion that will explore the state of the conflict and the efforts to end it. Why have efforts to resolve the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia not been successful? How can both sides build grassroot support for peace after years of fomenting hatred? And what can the international community do in support?

A short film about the making of the documentary can be seen here.

Members Events Team




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Beware Russian and Chinese Positioning for After the Pandemic

9 April 2020

Keir Giles

Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Authoritarian regimes can use the COVID-19 crisis to improve their international standing, taking advantage of others’ distraction. Their aims are different, but their methods have much in common.

2020-04-09-Russia-Aid-Serbia

An airlifter of the Russian Aerospace Forces prepares to fly to Serbia carrying equipment and professionals during the COVID-19 crisis. Photo by Russian Defence MinistryTASS via Getty Images.

Both Russia and China have mounted combined charm offensives and disinformation campaigns on the back of the pandemic. Shipments of ‘aid’ – reportedly of questionable utility and quality - have gone hand in hand with a concerted effort to deflect any blame from China for the early spread, and an ongoing drive by Russia to undermine states’ confidence and have sanctions lifted.

These concurrent operations have very different objectives, as Russia seeks to subvert international order while China is continuing its bid to demonstrate global leadership - but in both cases, they are seeking long-term gains by exploiting the inattention and distraction of their targets.

Both seek to present themselves as globally responsible stakeholders, but for divergent reasons – especially China which needs the rest of the world to recover and return to stability to ensure its own economic recovery. But despite this, the two campaigns appear superficially similar.

Fertile ground for disinformation

One reason lies in the unique nature of the current crisis. Unlike political issues that are local or regional in nature, COVID-19 affects everybody worldwide. The perceived lack of reliable information about the virus provides fertile ground for information and disinformation campaigns, especially feeding on fear, uncertainty and doubt. But Russia in particular would not be succeeding in its objectives without mis-steps and inattention by Western governments.

Confused reporting on Russia sending medical supplies to the United States showed Moscow taking advantage of a US administration in apparent disarray. Claims Russia was sending ’humanitarian aid’ were only belatedly countered by the US State Department pointing out it had been paid for. Meanwhile the earlier arrival of Russian military equipment in Italy also scored a propaganda victory for Russia, facilitated by curious passivity by the Italian government.

In both cases Russia also achieved secondary objectives. With the United States, Russia scored bonus points by shipping equipment produced by a subsidiary of a company under US sanctions. In the case of Italy, Russian state media made good use of misleading or heavily edited video clips to give the impression of widespread Italian acclaim for Russian aid, combined with disdain for the efforts of the EU.

Beijing’s external information campaigns have sought to deflect or defuse criticism of its early mishandling and misinformation on coronavirus and counter accusations of secrecy and falsifying data while also pursuing an opportunity to exercise soft power. For Moscow, current efforts boost a long-standing and intensive campaign to induce the lifting of sanctions, demonstrating if nothing else that sanctions are indeed an effective measure. Official and unofficial lobbying has intensified in numerous capital cities, and will inevitably find supporters.

But both the aid and the information campaigns are seriously flawed. While appropriate and useful aid for countries that are struggling should of course be welcomed, both Russian and Chinese equipment delivered to Europe has repeatedly been found to be inappropriate or defective

Russian photographs of cardboard boxes stacked loose and unsecured in a transport aircraft bound for the United States sparked alarm and disbelief among military and aviation experts - and there has still been no US statement on what exactly was purchased, and whether it was found to be fit for purpose when it arrived.

Reporting from Italy that the Russian equipment delivered there was ‘80% useless’ has not been contradicted by the Italian authorities. In fact, although the Italian sources criticizing Russia remain anonymous it is striking that - President Trump aside - no government has publicly endorsed materials and assistance received from Russia as actually being useful and helpful.

Even in Serbia, with its traditionally close ties with Russia, the only information forthcoming on the activities of the Russian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops and their equipment that arrived on April 3 was from Russian press releases.

Both countries’ strategic communications efforts are similarly fallible. China’s notoriously heavy-handed approach to its critics is of only limited use in the face of such a severe and immediate threat. One suggestion that the virus originated in the US – an early response to US criticism – has already been walked back by the Chinese diplomat who made it.

And Russia continues to be capable of spectacularly misjudging its targets. When investigative journalists looked more closely at the nature of the assistance to Italy, Russia’s official response was rage and personal threats, laying bare the real nature of the campaign and immediately alienating many of those whom Moscow had sought to win over.

Errors and deficiencies such as these provide opportunities to mitigate the worst side-effects of the campaigns. And actions by individuals can also mitigate much of the impact. The most effective disinformation plays on deeply emotional issues and triggers visceral rather than rational reactions.

Advocates of ’informational distancing’ as well as social distancing suggest a tactical pause to assess information calmly, instead of reacting or spreading it further unthinkingly. This approach would bolster not only calm dispassionate assessment of the real impact of Russian and Chinese actions, but also counter spreading of misinformation on the pandemic as a whole - especially when key sources of disinformation are national leaders seeking to politicize or profit from the crisis.

Limitations of Russian and Chinese altruism must be stated clearly and frankly to fill gaps in public understanding. Where help is genuine, it should of course be welcomed: but if it is the case that assistance received from Moscow or Beijing is not appropriate, not useful, or not fit for purpose, this should be acknowledged publicly.

Even without central direction or coordination with other Russian strategic communications efforts, the self-perpetuating Russian disinformation ecosystem continues to push narratives designed to undermine confidence in institutions and their ability to deal with the crisis. This too must continue to be monitored closely and countered where it matters.

In all cases, miscalculations by Russia or China that expose the true intent of their campaigns – no matter how different their objectives might be - should be watched for closely and highlighted where they occur.

Despite the enormity of the present emergency it is not a time for any government to relax its vigilance over longer-term threats. States must not lose sight of manoeuvres seeking to exploit weakness and distraction. If Russia and China emerge from the current crisis with enhanced authority and unjustifiably restored reputations, this will make it still harder to resist their respective challenges to the current rules-based international order in the future.




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Fighting COVID-19 the Ukrainian Way

28 April 2020

Orysia Lutsevych

Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme
Coronavirus has exposed vulnerabilities in Ukraine but also activated private sector and citizen engagement in delivering help. This could accelerate social change if a smart response is adopted and political reforms follow.

2020-04-28-Ukraine-COVID-Chernobyl

Girls wearing face masks at the monument to Chernobyl victims in Slavutich during a memorial ceremony amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images.

Ukrainians are accustomed to crisis. As COVID-19 spread, forest fires were raging in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, turning Kyiv into the most polluted city in the world. The fighting in Donbas continued, claiming the lives of more Ukrainian soldiers, bringing the total to more than 4,000 — and, on top of that, President Zelenskyy overhauled his government. So Ukraine is fighting three battles at the same time — war with Russia, the struggle against its own ineffective system, and now COVID-19.

Every crisis is a reality check — the coronavirus provoked and exposed the strategic vulnerabilities and deep-rooted features of Ukraine’s system of governance. Three trends have come to the fore. First, the inefficiency and paralysis of many state agencies, particularly the lack of coordination between them and the prevalence of vested interests. Second, the reliance of the country’s leaders on large financial-industrial groups (FIGs) to compensate for weak institutional capacity. Third, a strong societal and private sector mobilization to fill the gaps in the dilapidated public health system.

State agencies are rigid and ineffective. Despite the modern Prozorro digital public procurement system, and the government’s allocation of $2.5 million from the early days of the epidemic, the Ministry of Health blocked COVID-related purchases for over a month. This was a tactic by — now ex-minister — Yemets to pressure the state medical procurement agency into appointing a protégé of his as one of its deputy heads.

Lowest testing rate in Europe

Similarly, in some regions, notably Odesa, procurement stalled and orders went to politically connected businesses at higher-than-market prices. Lack of tests and laboratory equipment means Ukraine has administered only 72,000 tests within a population of 42 million to date — the lowest rate in Europe.

Doctors were given orders to ensure they only test patients in hospitals with COVID-19 symptoms and only those arriving from Asia, while ignoring the fact that millions of Ukrainian labour migrants were in Europe. Indeed, the first confirmed case was imported from Italy.

Ukrainian government and public health officials lack information to take informed decisions. There is no accurate electronic database of registered deaths and reporting is lagging behind events. Information on testing availability in the regions is missing.

Thirteen days after the first case of the virus was recorded, Zelenskyy exhorted business tycoons to come to the rescue. Taking a populist tone, Zelenskyy said ‘Ukraine has been feeding you for a long time and it is time that you helped the country’. The tycoons divided the regions among themselves to deliver relief efforts according to the location of their enterprises.

It is believed FIGs have donated around $25 million to procure testing kits, ventilators, personal protective equipment (PPE) and disinfectants. This may sound impressive, but many of those same tycoons actually owe millions to the state, some even billions, and cause serious problems by perpetuating the current rent-seeking system, where public resources benefit those groups resulting in serious social losses.

Reliance on these groups makes Zelenskyy a hostage to their favour in any potential reform efforts. It is a dangerous solution, as these tycoons often obstruct Ukraine’s economic development.

An alternative — and more transformative — trend of public-private partnerships is emerging in some regions. Across Ukraine, hundreds of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have led efforts to deliver PPE, support the vulnerable with food supplies, and to procure ventilators for key hospitals.

They have mobilised hundreds of volunteers to deliver assistance and partnered with local non-profits. Fundraising initiatives have begun in Lviv, Odesa, Kyiv and Poltava with donations and expenditure has been posted online for transparency. Companies have repurposed to produce PPE kits and medical equipment. The efforts unfolded quickly and, in some cases, in smooth collaboration with municipal and regional authorities.

Ukraine cannot afford to ‘waste’ this crisis, which could help accelerate healthcare reform, decentralization, modernize governance, and boost citizen empowerment. But for this to happen, the country has to deploy a ‘smart response’.

Such ‘smart response’ means applying a resilience framework that nurtures the agility of the system of governance, ensures a diversity of actors in decision-making, supporting both self-regulation and better coordination. Rather than reaching out to tycoons, Zelenskyy should enter a coalition with true agents of change — SME leaders, volunteers, and mayors who have mobilized effective grassroots action. These actors demand a level playing field with accountable governance and effective state institutions.

Civic COVID-19 response hubs and local authorities should be joined in a network that spans the regions, and connected with the national agencies designing pandemic responses. For a national strategy to be effective, central headquarters should draw information from local communities and manage a ‘team of teams’ in a decentralised fashion.

Ensuring effective public service delivery without compromising integrity and keeping the risk of corruption low should also be a priority of political reform, with volunteers and the private sector ensuring civic oversight of both regional and national funding.

Civic engagement such as this can be transformative as it defies the Soviet legacy of paternalism and expands the belief among citizens that society can work for them. By assisting the relief effort, citizens are gaining valuable insights into quality of public services and participate in holding them to account.

Citizens are also developing a better understanding of the purpose of having effective armed forces, police, border guards and modern hospitals. They are coming to understand the value of taxpayer money and witnessing how corruption erodes institutions.

This survival mobilization — if properly harnessed by the state — could drive transformative change and make Ukraine more resilient, not just against present crises, but future ones too.




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