Russia is facing the mounting risk of stagflation, a think tank tied to the Kremlin said. The nation's high interest rates will trigger an economic a downturn while inflation remains high, TsMAKP said. Tight monetary policy is costing Russian business profitability and risks spurring…

"The Russian economy is effectively facing the threat of stagflation — simultaneous stagnation or even recession and high inflation."

[The Conversation Africa] The current capitalist system has created two related crises: ecological decline and social injustice. It has led to environmental damage like climate change, which affects some people more than others.

When economists and policymakers talk about getting inflation under control, there's an assumption they often make: bringing inflation down will probably result in some degree of layoffs and job loss. But that is not the way things have played out since inflation spiked last year. Instead, so far, inflation has come down, and unemployment has stayed low.

So where does the idea of this tradeoff – between inflation and unemployment – come from?

That story starts in the 1940s, with a soft-spoken electrical engineer-turned-crocodile hunter-turned-economist named Bill Phillips. Phillips was consumed by the notion that there are underlying forces at work in the economy. He thought that if macroeconomists could only understand how those forces work, they could keep the economy stable.

On today's show, how the Phillips Curve was born, why it went mainstream, and why universal truths remain elusive in macroeconomics.

This episode was hosted by Willa Rubin and Nick Fountain, and produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Molly Messick, and engineered by Maggie Luthar. Sierra Juarez checked the facts.

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(For our story on this year's Nobel in Economics, check out our daily show, The Indicator!)

Let's face it. Economics is filled with terms that don't always make sense to the average person. Terms that sometimes mean what you think they mean, but sometimes not at all. Not even close.

We surveyed 188 economists. And we asked them: What are the most misunderstood terms in the field of economics?

On today's show, their answers! Hear stories about near recessions, a problem with insurance, econ at your local movie theater, and... an economics term that will make undergrads blush. Strap in, and bring your popcorn!

This episode was hosted by Amanda Aronczyk and Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler with help from Sean Saldana. It was edited by Jess Jiang, engineered by Valentina Rodríguez Sánchez and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.

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(Center Square) — Monumental Sports and Entertainment have been in talks this summer of a future move to northern Virginia for some of Washington, D.C.’s professional sports teams if the city doesn’t chip in more for improvements to their sports arena, the Washington Post has reported.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has left little question about the sort of economic policies he will pursue when he is sworn in for a second term as president in January. The once-and-future president has promised to extend existing tax cuts and implement new ones; to pursue a deregulation agenda, particularly when it comes to energy production; to reinstate a strong protectionist trade policy, including substantial tariffs on imports; and to undertake a "mass deportation" program that would remove a large number of the millions of undocumented immigrants currently residing in the United States. While there may be little doubt about the kind of policies Trump will implement, the degree to which he will pursue them is an open question. "The problem that all economists are dealing with is they don't know how much of what Trump said on the campaign trail to take seriously," Steven B. Kamin, a senior fellow at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute, told VOA. "They don't know if he's going to do a lot of these things, or if he is, how far he'll take it." When it comes to tariffs, Trump has promised across-the-board 10%-20% levies on all imports, and charges of up to 60% on goods coming from China, which experts warn would be economically ruinous. His rhetoric about fossil fuel extraction suggests he will drive up oil and gas production, even though the U.S. is currently producing more energy than it ever has. On immigration, he and his advisers have vacillated between suggesting that all undocumented people will be forcibly removed and describing a much more targeted operation. Tax policy One thing that appears certain is that Trump will work with Congress — which seems likely to be fully controlled by the Republican Party — to extend the tax cuts that became law as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which he signed into law in 2017. Those tax cuts reduced the income taxes paid by many American workers and reduced taxable income by increasing the standard deduction. They also sharply cut the top business income tax bracket from 39% to 21%. Those provisions are all scheduled to expire over the next several years, some as soon as 2025, and Trump has proposed making them permanent. Trump has also floated the idea of other tax cuts, including further reducing the business income tax to a maximum of 15%, and making income from overtime wages, tips and Social Security payments nontaxable, all of which would reduce government revenues. Kamin said the stimulative impact of Trump's proposed additional tax changes would likely not be great, but the impact on the country's debt might be, because they will virtually guarantee additional government borrowing to finance deficit spending. "The real concern for folks that are concerned about the fiscal balance — and I'm one of them — is that by cementing in place large fiscal deficits as far as the eye can see, even in environments of strong economic activity when we should be running surpluses, that leads to increases in the debt," he said. "That, eventually, should lead to crowding out of private investment, rising interest rates, and more worries about the government's sustainability position," Kamin added. "But when the debt will reach a level that will be worrisome in that respect, nobody knows." Cost-cutting In theory, some of the deficit spending made necessary by large tax cuts could be offset by a reduction in government spending, something Trump has also floated on the campaign trail. In particular, the president-elect has proposed creating a Department of Government Efficiency, to be headed by Elon Musk, the billionaire founder of the electric car company Tesla and the rocket builder SpaceX, and the owner of X, the social network formerly known as Twitter. For his part, Musk has mused that it should be possible to slash federal spending by as much as $2 trillion per year, or about 30%. Reductions of that magnitude would require deep cuts to a vast array of programs, including elements of the social safety net such as Social Security and federal health programs like Medicaid. However, it is unclear how Trump would persuade even a Republican Congress to enact such a wide-ranging reduction in government services. Immigration policy If Trump follows through on a policy of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, it is virtually certain to have a negative impact on economic sectors where they are present as laborers in significant concentrations, especially agriculture and construction, said Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "If you take lots of people out of the labor force, you reduce the amount of output, because there's less labor available, and you raise prices," Noland told VOA. "These people are not distributed evenly across the United States economy," he said. "They're concentrated in agriculture and construction, so you would disrupt those sectors the most, especially if you combine it with tariffs." Trade policy Trump's tariff proposals, especially if he follows through with his maximalist proposals from the campaign trail, could be significantly damaging. While theoretically meant to stimulate American manufacturing, Noland warned that they could have the opposite effect. "Some modeling that I worked on suggest that those tariff policies, instead of reviving the industrial sector, will actually reduce industrial activity in the United States," he warned. Blanket tariffs on imports, and especially high levies on Chinese goods, would create severe challenges for U.S. manufacturers. "The reason is that you would increase the price of industrial inputs, and so, the United States would become a high-cost place to produce," he said. "Investment would fall — and investment is intensive in industrial materials — so, ironically, it has the opposite effect of what its proponents say."

Here’s what economists had to say about the July jobs report.

Nela Richardson, chief economist for brokerage Redfin Corp., and Selma Hepp, chief economist for Zillow Group’s Trulia real-estate website, both said builders aren’t constructing enough entry-level housing to meet demand. They’re focusing more of their resources instead, the economists said, on building pricey homes for buyers with ample credit.

The national supply of homes for sale is getting squeezed by the small amount of equity millions of would-be sellers have in their properties and relatively weak output from home builders, according to economists speaking Friday at a real-estate conference in Miami.

Indian economy grew 7.6% in Q2FY24

National Bureau of Economic Research

The recommendations are part of a report titled 'COVID-19: Challenges for the Indian Economy - Trade and Foreign Policy Effects'.

Eight months before the upcoming WTO ministerial of December 2005, prominent economists are closing ranks to dwarf sustained criticism of agricultural subsidies in developed nations. Devinder Sharma asserts that the continued undermining of food self-sufficiency in developing nations is economic lunacy.

Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit NOEL KING, HOST: The news from the Labor Department this morning is staggering - 20.5 million jobs, that's how much the U.S. lost last month. The unemployment rate is now at 14.7%. By way of comparison, in February, the unemployment rate in this country was about 3.5%. This is the worst it's been since 1940. What does this mean as we move forward, and can we learn anything from the past? With me now to help answer that, Heidi Shierholz, who's an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, and Claudia Goldin, who's an economic historian and a professor of economics at Harvard. Good morning to you both. HEIDI SHIERHOLZ: Good morning. CLAUDIA GOLDIN: Good morning. KING: Heidi, let me start with you. We're looking at job losses of, as I said, more than 20 million, with unemployment pushing toward 15%. Which of those numbers is more helpful to understanding how we are doing? SHIERHOLZ: They're both useful, but the 20 million is more - it gives more of

What do the latest unemployment rates mean for the U.S. economy? NPR's Noel King speaks with Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute and Claudia Goldin of Harvard University.

What do the latest unemployment rates mean for the U.S. economy? NPR's Noel King speaks with Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute and Claudia Goldin of Harvard University.

So @jimtankersley talked to Kevin Hassett about the whole "cubic model" mess, and long story short, I'm pretty sure Hassett owes @NateSilver538 $538.

Economics professors Susan Harmeling and Nico Voigtländer break down Netflix's social allegory "The Platform," exploring how the Spanish thriller is even more resonant in wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Members of the future American workforce could see losses of earnings that add up to trillions of dollars, depending on how long coronavirus-related school closures persist.

The post Economists Expect Huge Future Earnings Loss for Students Missing School Due to COVID-19 appeared first on Market Brief.

On cronies, cranks and the coronavirus.

IPC China President Phil Carmichael shares his insights, as well as those of some of his colleagues, into the current state of the general economy in China.

Figures released by the Department of Finance last week show the budget is now back in deficit by $4.8 billion. Now some economists doubt the government will be able to reach the projected surplus, including former Treasury advisor Warren Hogan.

The lack of diversity in the field of economics – in addition to the lack of progress relative to other STEM fields – is drawing increasing attention in the profession, but nearly all the focus has been on economists at academic institutions, and little attention has been devoted to the diversity of the economists employed…

Never before has the U.S. fallen into a recession led by the services sector, so there is no real road map for the recovery.

Greece’s former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and Irish economist David McWilliams on the hope for a global new deal

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David McWilliams: I think it is fair to say that capitalism – in the course of this unprecedented crisis – has been suspended. We are not going back to where we were, to business as usual. The state has come back, and this episode will not be forgotten by the electorate. I don’t know where we are going, but one thing seems clear: we are not going back.

Yanis Varoufakis: I like this phrase: capitalism has been suspended. The last time capitalism was suspended in the west was during the second world war, with the advent of the war economy: a command economy that fixed prices. The war economy marked the transcendence of the standard capitalist model.

The fact that Germany is now in the same pile of shit as the rest of us offers a glimmer of hope

My sense is that the period when you could travel, engage, move, we might have reached the end of that open period.

This is an edited version of a conversation that will appear in A Vision for Europe 2020: Nothing But an Alternative, published this month by Eris.

Seoul, 2-4 May 2018: This workshop, co-organised by the OECD-Korean Policy Centre and the International Competition Network, provided senior and chief economists with a comprehensive programme on competition economics that will include merger simulation, buyer power, big data, platforms and multi-sided markets, fundamentals of IO and Game Theory among others.

Forecast of a quick rebound from crisis without sustaining any persistent damage is disputed

The US private sector shed a record 20m jobs in April as coronavirus lockdowns and the resulting closure of non-essential businesses led to historic joblessness

Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP, loan approvals are more concentrated in areas with existing small business-bank partnerships instead of regions hit hardest by the coronavirus, Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists wrote Wednesday. Virus hotspots including New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are receiving fewer PPP loan approvals per small business than less-affected states.The economists found "strong similarity" between states with high proportions of small business-bank financing relationships and PPP loan issuance.States with larger shares of community banks also issued a greater proportion of relief loans, the Fed found.Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.Emergency loans issued by the Small Business Administration have been more concentrated in areas

President Donald Trump has said the economy will take off like a rocket when the COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing ends.The Congressional Budget Office predicts the unemployment rate will still be at 9% at the end of 2021.Historically, high unemployment rates during recessions and pandemics have taken a long time to come back down to full employment levels.Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.Following is a transcript of the video.Narrator: If you watch President Trump's daily briefings, you might think everything will immediately go back to normal when social distancing is no longer necessary.President Trump: And you will see our economy skyrocket.Narrator: But Congress' own budget office thinks things will be pretty bleak for much longer. At the beginning of April, the

When seasonally adjusted numbers continue to exhibit the influences of seasonal effects, much as first-quarter readings on gross domestic product have regularly been doing, statisticians refer to it as residual seasonality. And that effect hampers seasoned economists from making clear-eyed judgments on the strength of the economy.

Winner of the 2013 Economics Nobel, Robert J Shiller adds the latest perspective to a long-standing, heated debate on whether Economics can be called a science at all, and if it merits the prestigious award. Shankar Jaganathan recounts the many points of view on the subject.

Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2019.

Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2020.

Dewey Library - HB195.B65 2020

'India was seen as a natural alternative. While there’s been a lot of talk about supply chains shifting, in reality nothing much has happened. Much of the FDI in India in the past two years have been investments by Chinese handset producers and online marketing companies.'

The lockdown of economies around the world causes a much sharper decline in economic activity than in normal recessions, says World Bank chief economist south Asia region, Hans Timmer

Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020

Fed funds futures, which are a gauge of where markets expect the Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate to be, are now pricing in a slightly negative rate environment beginning in December

Dewey Library - HJ8015.S68 2020