Planning pays off for creators of garden oasis in St. Bonifacius.

Minnesota high schools are manufacturing protective gear

Dozens of residents and staff members have tested positive for the virus.

The congressman cosponsored a proposal to back $900 billion more in small business loans.

He talked to C4 about the "confusing" and unprecedented dual elections ahear.

Kweisi Mfume returns to Washington in chaotic times.

Allied Racing Stable LLC's By My Standards, after securing a stalking position from post 12, overhauled front-running Warrior's Charge in midstretch to win the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap by 1 ¾ lengths under Gabriel Saez on Saturday. By My Standards (3 for 3 this year) was exiting a three-length score in the $400,000 New Orleans […]

The post Oaklawn Handicap Winner By My Standards Will Target Breeders’ Cup Classic appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Bracing the nation for a death toll that could exceed 100,000 people, President Trump on Sunday extended restrictive social distancing guidelines through April.

Steo is taking steps to ensure the safety of buyers and sellers in an uncertain time.

Since 1926, Howard's Point Marina in Excelsior on Lake Minnetonka has served up live bait, fishing accessories, refreshments and other necessities for enjoying time on the water.

Flavio Bartmann writes: Over the last few days, as COVID-19 posed some serious issues for policy makers who, both in the US and elsewhere, have employed statistical models to develop mitigation strategies, a number of non-statisticians have criticized the use of such models as useless or worse. A typical example is this article by Victor […]

Uros Seljak writes: You may be interested in our Gaussian Process counterfactual analysis of Italy mortality data that we just posted. Our results are in a strong disagreement with the Stanford seropositive paper that appeared on Friday. Their work was all over the news, but is completely misleading and needs to be countered: they claim […]

So, there’s this new study doing the rounds. Some economists decided to study the twitter followers of prominent coronavirus skeptics and fearmongers, and it seems that followers of Nassim Taleb were more likely to shelter in place, and less like to die of coronavirus, than followers of Richard Epstein or Cass Sunstein. And the differences […]

Steven Wood writes: There now some controversy regarding the effectiveness of Remdesivir for treatment of Covid. With the inadvertent posting of results on the WHO website. https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/ One of the pillars of hope for this treatment is the monkey treatment trial (the paper is here). As an experience clinical trialist I was immediately skeptical of […]

Simas Kucinskas writes: I would like to share some recent research (pdf here). In this paper, I develop a new method for estimating R in real time, and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on standard epidemiological theory, but the approach itself is heavily inspired by time-series statistics. I […]

Seth Flaxman et al. have an updated version of their model of coronavirus progression. Flaxman writes: Countries with successful control strategies (for example, Greece) never got above small numbers thanks to early, drastic action. Or put another way: if we did China and showed % of population infected (or death rate), we’d erroneously conclude that […]

tl;dr: Their 95% interval for the infection rate, given the data available, is [0.7%, 1.8%]. My Bayesian interval is [0.3%, 2.4%]. Most of what makes my interval wider is the possibility that the specificity and sensitivity of the tests can vary across labs. To get a narrower interval, you’d need additional assumptions regarding the specificity […]

We’ve had lots of discussions here and elsewhere online about fundamental flaws in statistics culture: the whole p-value thing, statistics used for confirmation rather than falsification, corruption of the pizzagate variety, soft corruption in which statistics is used in the service of country-club-style backslapping, junk science routinely getting the imprimatur of the National Academy of […]

The other day we posted some Stan models of coronavirus infection rate from the Stanford study in Santa Clara county. The Bayesian setup worked well because it allowed us to directly incorporate uncertainty in the specificity, sensitivity, and underlying infection rate. Mitzi Morris put all this in a Google Collab notebook so you can run […]

The University of Washington in Seattle is a big place. It includes the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which has produced a widely-circulated and widely-criticized coronavirus model. As we’ve discussed, the IHME model is essentially a curve-fitting exercise that makes projections using the second derivative of the time trend on the log scale. […]

Part 1 Andrew Lilley, Gianluca Rinaldi, and Matthew Lilley write: You might be familiar with a recent paper by Correira, Luck, and Verner who argued that cities that enacted non-pharmaceutical interventions earlier / for longer during the Spanish Flu of 1918 had higher subsequent economic growth. The paper has had extensive media coverage – e.g. […]

Robin Lee writes: To check for linearity and homoscedasticity, we are taught to plot residuals against y fitted value in many statistics classes. However, plotting residuals against y fitted value has always been a confusing practice that I know that I should use but can’t quite explain why. It is not until this week I […]

By default, ggplot expands the space above and below the x-axis (and to the left and right of the y-axis). Andrew has made it pretty clear that he thinks the x axis should be drawn at y = 0. To remove the extra space around the axes when you have continuous (not discrete or log […]

David Rohde points us to this new seminar series that has the following description: Machine learning is changing the world we live in at a break neck pace. From image recognition and generation, to the deployment of recommender systems, it seems to be breaking new ground constantly and influencing almost every aspect of our lives. […]

After getting 80 zillion comments on that last post with all that political content, I wanted to share something that’s purely technical. It’s something Bob Carpenter wrote in a conversation regarding implementing algorithms in Stan: One thing we are doing is having the matrix library return more expression templates rather than copying on return as […]

After closing amid the coronavirus pandemic, the National Park Service is testing public access at several parks across the nation, including two in Utah, with limited offerings and services. Visitor centers and campgrounds remain largely shuttered at Bryce Canyon and Capitol Reef, but visitors are welcome at some of the sites.

Bank runs should not be a concern, thanks to the system that protects your deposits.

After snapping up more than $500 billion in emergency loans in just three weeks, small-business owners have lost interest in the federal Paycheck Protection Program. Minnesota business owners are among those who may give back a chunk of their forgivable loans.

Companies are rushing to readjust their office designs as they prepare to reopen workplaces amid the pandemic. Strategists and designers are putting aside past concerns about branding and flashy office amenities to focus on employee safety.

Declining state and local government spending really can make an economic downturn worse. And this recession is bad enough already.

By all accounts, the second division of Saturday's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., going as the 13th race on the 14-race closing-day program, is much deeper in quality than the first division, which is dominated by the Speightstown colt Charlatan, likely an odds-on favorite. Nadal, who like Charlatan is an […]

The post Triple Crown News Minute Presented By Kentucky Equine Research: Arkansas Derby’s Deeper Division appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

In the latest installment of Ask Ray, Paulick Report publisher Ray Paulick answers questions from readers on several topics, and it's apparent from his responses that he's a little edgy after being in isolation since mid-March. A question about why California workouts are almost all designated as “handily” while the rest of the country's workouts […]

The post Ask Ray: Workout Designations, DRF Mystery, Arizona ADW And Edgar Prado appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

For your business or personal needs we’re sure that you are going to need to get some files from either your customers, business associates or friends.  You might be needing to collect job applications, portfolio submissions, consent letters or just plain Christmas photos that your great aunt took last year. As these files start to...

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Looking for the right plugins to install on your new WordPress site? The flexibility to use plugins to improve and enhance your site is undoubtedly one of WordPress’s best features. But, it can be quite overwhelming to just get started. At the last count, there were over 54,000 WordPress plugins available on WordPress.org and thousands...

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https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/implementation-of-south-rim-visitor-transportation-plan.htm

https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/grand-canyon-school-rediological-study.htm

The National Park Service (NPS), with the assistance of the Department Public Safety, searched today for three individuals last seen earlier today in the Colorado River near Phantom Ranch. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-missing-4-30.htm

Construction began this week on visitor improvements outlined in Grand Canyon National Park's South Rim Visitor Transportation Plan.  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-01-phase-i.htm

At approximately 12:30 p.m. today, National Park Service (NPS) search and rescue personnel found the body of a young man in the Colorado River near Phantom Ranch. The body has been identified as one of three young men missing since yesterday. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-01a-missing.htm

Search continues for two still missing in the Colorado River https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/search-continues-for-two-still-missing.htm

Two young men still missing in Colorado River https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/two-still-missing.htm

Grand Canyon National Park (GRCA) search and rescue personnel are currently searching for a man last seen outside of the park's Backcountry Information Center on Saturday, May 23, 2009. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-28-search.htm

Sixty-nine year old Robert A. Williams of Surprise, Arizona has not been located, and search efforts have yielded no additional clues as to his whereabouts. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/news-2009-05-30-search.htm