Schools must make the critical decision whether to reinforce the learning that students have already done this year or introduce new content.

The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, states like Vermont and Rhode Island, and companies such as AltSchool all generated headlines about personalized learning in 2017.

In 2017 the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and Australian Defence Force (Australian Army) undertook a joint review of the Army Aboriginal Community Assistance Programme (AACAP) to assess its efficiency and effectiveness. The review found AACAP is a highly regarded and effective means of achieving positive environmental and primary health outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities while providing valuable training outcomes for Army. AACAP's objectives align with the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) 'Closing the Gap' targets in Indigenous disadvantage and with the Australian Government's Indigenous Advancement Strategy (IAS). The report identified areas for potential improvement, recommending greater support for the sustainability of infrastructure and project investment, enhanced employment and training opportunities and strengthening of project governance.

London : Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown, and Green, 1834.

Resurrecting an old idea about assessing school quality could allow schools to examine a broad range of data on performance and practices and lead to improvement.

Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, 1981.

Washington, D.C. : Wynne Associates, 1974.

Glaura C. Franco, Helio S. Migon, Marcos O. Prates.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 4, 756--781.

Abstract:
Observation and parameter driven models are commonly used in the literature to analyse time series of counts. In this paper, we study the characteristics of a variety of models and point out the main differences and similarities among these procedures, concerning parameter estimation, model fitting and forecasting. Alternatively to the literature, all inference was performed under the Bayesian paradigm. The models are fitted with a latent AR($p$) process in the mean, which accounts for autocorrelation in the data. An extensive simulation study shows that the estimates for the covariate parameters are remarkably similar across the different models. However, estimates for autoregressive coefficients and forecasts of future values depend heavily on the underlying process which generates the data. A real data set of bankruptcy in the United States is also analysed.

Kushal K. Dey, Sourabh Bhattacharya.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 2, 222--266.

Abstract:
Transformation based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) was proposed by Dutta and Bhattacharya ( Statistical Methodology 16 (2014) 100–116) as an efficient alternative to the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, especially in high dimensions. The main advantage of this algorithm is that it simultaneously updates all components of a high dimensional parameter using appropriate move types defined by deterministic transformation of a single random variable. This results in reduction in time complexity at each step of the chain and enhances the acceptance rate. In this paper, we first provide a brief review of the optimal scaling theory for various existing MCMC approaches, comparing and contrasting them with the corresponding TMCMC approaches.The optimal scaling of the simplest form of TMCMC, namely additive TMCMC , has been studied extensively for the Gaussian proposal density in Dey and Bhattacharya (2017a). Here, we discuss diffusion-based optimal scaling behavior of additive TMCMC for non-Gaussian proposal densities—in particular, uniform, Student’s $t$ and Cauchy proposals. Although we could not formally prove our diffusion result for the Cauchy proposal, simulation based results lead us to conjecture that at least the recipe for obtaining general optimal scaling and optimal acceptance rate holds for the Cauchy case as well. We also consider diffusion based optimal scaling of TMCMC when the target density is discontinuous. Such non-regular situations have been studied in the case of Random Walk Metropolis Hastings (RWMH) algorithm by Neal and Roberts ( Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability 13 (2011) 583–601) using expected squared jumping distance (ESJD), but the diffusion theory based scaling has not been considered. We compare our diffusion based optimally scaled TMCMC approach with the ESJD based optimally scaled RWM with simulation studies involving several target distributions and proposal distributions including the challenging Cauchy proposal case, showing that additive TMCMC outperforms RWMH in almost all cases considered.

Bomin Kim, Kevin H. Lee, Lingzhou Xue, Xiaoyue Niu.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 12, 105--135.

Abstract:
We present a selective review of statistical modeling of dynamic networks. We focus on models with latent variables, specifically, the latent space models and the latent class models (or stochastic blockmodels), which investigate both the observed features and the unobserved structure of networks. We begin with an overview of the static models, and then we introduce the dynamic extensions. For each dynamic model, we also discuss its applications that have been studied in the literature, with the data source listed in Appendix. Based on the review, we summarize a list of open problems and challenges in dynamic network modeling with latent variables.

Kevin McGoff, Sayan Mukherjee, Natesh Pillai.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 9, 209--252.

Abstract:
The topic of statistical inference for dynamical systems has been studied widely across several fields. In this survey we focus on methods related to parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamical systems. Our objective is to place results across distinct disciplines in a common setting and highlight opportunities for further research.

Adrien Saumard, Jon A. Wellner.

Source: Statistics Surveys, Volume 8, 45--114.

Abstract:
We review and formulate results concerning log-concavity and strong-log-concavity in both discrete and continuous settings. We show how preservation of log-concavity and strong log-concavity on $mathbb{R}$ under convolution follows from a fundamental monotonicity result of Efron (1965). We provide a new proof of Efron’s theorem using the recent asymmetric Brascamp-Lieb inequality due to Otto and Menz (2013). Along the way we review connections between log-concavity and other areas of mathematics and statistics, including concentration of measure, log-Sobolev inequalities, convex geometry, MCMC algorithms, Laplace approximations, and machine learning.

Imad Bou-Hamad, Denis Larocque, Hatem Ben-Ameur

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 44--71.

Abstract:
This paper presents a non–technical account of the developments in tree–based methods for the analysis of survival data with censoring. This review describes the initial developments, which mainly extended the existing basic tree methodologies to censored data as well as to more recent work. We also cover more complex models, more specialized methods, and more specific problems such as multivariate data, the use of time–varying covariates, discrete–scale survival data, and ensemble methods applied to survival trees. A data example is used to illustrate some methods that are implemented in R.

Gregory J. Matthews, Ofer Harel

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 1--29.

Abstract:
There is an ever increasing demand from researchers for access to useful microdata files. However, there are also growing concerns regarding the privacy of the individuals contained in the microdata. Ideally, microdata could be released in such a way that a balance between usefulness of the data and privacy is struck. This paper presents a review of proposed methods of statistical disclosure control and techniques for assessing the privacy of such methods under different definitions of disclosure.

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Matthews, G.J., Harel, O., Aseltine, R.H., 2010a. Assessing database privacy using the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology 10 (1), 1–15.

Matthews, G.J., Harel, O., Aseltine, R.H., 2010b. Examining the robustness of fully synthetic data techniques for data with binary variables. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 80 (6), 609–624.

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Ningshan Zhang, Kyle Schmaus, Patrick O. Perry.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2260--2288.

Abstract:
We consider a particular instance of a common problem in recommender systems, using a database of book reviews to inform user-targeted recommendations. In our dataset, books are categorized into genres and subgenres. To exploit this nested taxonomy, we use a hierarchical model that enables information pooling across across similar items at many levels within the genre hierarchy. The main challenge in deploying this model is computational. The data sizes are large and fitting the model at scale using off-the-shelf maximum likelihood procedures is prohibitive. To get around this computational bottleneck, we extend a moment-based fitting procedure proposed for fitting single-level hierarchical models to the general case of arbitrarily deep hierarchies. This extension is an order of magnitude faster than standard maximum likelihood procedures. The fitting method can be deployed beyond recommender systems to general contexts with deeply nested hierarchical generalized linear mixed models.

Lei Liu, Ya-Chen Tina Shih, Robert L. Strawderman, Daowen Zhang, Bankole A. Johnson, Haitao Chai.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 253--279.

Abstract:
Zero-inflated nonnegative continuous (or semicontinuous) data arise frequently in biomedical, economical, and ecological studies. Examples include substance abuse, medical costs, medical care utilization, biomarkers (e.g., CD4 cell counts, coronary artery calcium scores), single cell gene expression rates, and (relative) abundance of microbiome. Such data are often characterized by the presence of a large portion of zero values and positive continuous values that are skewed to the right and heteroscedastic. Both of these features suggest that no simple parametric distribution may be suitable for modeling such type of outcomes. In this paper, we review statistical methods for analyzing zero-inflated nonnegative outcome data. We will start with the cross-sectional setting, discussing ways to separate zero and positive values and introducing flexible models to characterize right skewness and heteroscedasticity in the positive values. We will then present models of correlated zero-inflated nonnegative continuous data, using random effects to tackle the correlation on repeated measures from the same subject and that across different parts of the model. We will also discuss expansion to related topics, for example, zero-inflated count and survival data, nonlinear covariate effects, and joint models of longitudinal zero-inflated nonnegative continuous data and survival. Finally, we will present applications to three real datasets (i.e., microbiome, medical costs, and alcohol drinking) to illustrate these methods. Example code will be provided to facilitate applications of these methods.

Elizabeth A. Stuart

Source: Statist. Sci., Volume 25, Number 1, 1--21.

Abstract:
When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be achieved by choosing well-matched samples of the original treated and control groups, thereby reducing bias due to the covariates. Since the 1970s, work on matching methods has examined how to best choose treated and control subjects for comparison. Matching methods are gaining popularity in fields such as economics, epidemiology, medicine and political science. However, until now the literature and related advice has been scattered across disciplines. Researchers who are interested in using matching methods—or developing methods related to matching—do not have a single place to turn to learn about past and current research. This paper provides a structure for thinking about matching methods and guidance on their use, coalescing the existing research (both old and new) and providing a summary of where the literature on matching methods is now and where it should be headed.

On-the-record remarks of the September 2019 Quarterly Review media briefing by Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, and Mr Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research, 20 September 2019.

On-the-record remarks of the December 2019 Quarterly Review media briefing by Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, and Mr Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research, 6 December 2019.

On-the-record remarks of the March 2020 Quarterly Review media briefing by Mr Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, and Mr Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research, 28 February 2020.

A review of FAO’s fight against hunger and malnutrition and challenges ahead with the participation of José Graziano da Silva, Director-General of FAO. 

Where: Sheikh Zayed Centre at FAO headquarters 

When: Friday, 26th [...]

BIS Bulletin No 7, April 2020. Past epidemics had long-lasting effects on economies through illness and the loss of lives, while Covid-19 is marked by widespread containment measures and relatively lower fatalities among young people. The short-term costs of Covid-19 will probably dwarf those of past epidemics, due to the unprecedented and synchronised global sudden stop in economic activity induced by containment measures. The current estimated impact on global GDP growth for 2020 is around -4%, with substantial downside risks if containment policies are prolonged. Output losses are larger for major economies.

BIS Press Release - Easing trade tensions lift sentiment: BIS Quarterly Review, 8 December 2019

Basel Committee Press release "Basel Committee meets to review vulnerabilities and emerging risks, advance supervisory initiatives and promote Basel III implementationl", 27 February 2020.

BIS Press Release - Shaping the future of payments: BIS Quarterly Review, 1 March 2020

A woman found not criminally responsible for fatally stabbing a stranger in the heart at the makeup counter of a Toronto drugstore five years ago could ultimately be allowed to live in the community if the mental health facility where she is staying decides she can, the Ontario Review Board says.

By Andrea Picciotti-Bayer

Our parish’s fall festival was coming to an end. As I rounded up my little ones, I spotted an acquaintance. Antoinette is almost 95 years old and now wheelchair bound, but her incandescent smile inevitably draws people towards her. “Have you had a nice evening?” I asked.
 
 “Oh yes,” she replied, “I spoke for a long time with Father.” 
 
“You know,” I said in a hushed tone, “I think he is a mystic.”
 
 “Yes,” Antoinette said, taking a deep breath, “he saw right to my soul.”
 
A mystic is not some sort of Catholic tarot card reader. A mystic is, in the eyes of traditional Christianity, someone God has given certain gifts and graces to accomplish a specific purpose for the salvation of souls. Some of the Church’s notable mystics include great saints like St. Padre Pio, St. John of the Cross, St. Teresa of Avila and St. Catherine of Siena. Their extraordinary ability to sense God transformed their hearts. Theirs were hearts moved to quiet and solitude when necessary, but also to action and service to souls and the Church. They were obedient to God and Church, and – not unrelatedly – they were profoundly humble. 
 
Now, we shouldn’t think that the exceptional relationship that mystics had with God is just for an elite, holy few. No, not at all. Mystics walk among us in our everyday lives – Antoinette’s and my parish priest, for example – and a mystical relationship with God is open to us all. In fact, God longs to connect with each one of our hearts and transform them for His glory. To that end, National Review’s Kathryn Jean Lopez has just compiled a beautiful daily devotional, A Year with the Mystics: Visionary Wisdom for Daily Living, that can help open our hearts to such prayerful, mystical encounters with God. Lopez’ message is simple: “You too can be a mystic.”
 
“I don’t pretend to either be a mystic or an expert on mysticism,” she writes. “But I do pray enough to know that so very few us of us have plumbed the depths of what God wants to reveal to us and do in us through prayer.”
 
A Year with the Mystics features brief, daily meditations grounded in the writings and prayers of the Catholic Church’s well-known mystics – Padre Pio, Teresa of Avila, and John of the Cross, for example.  Lopez also includes the words of “active saints in the world,” figures not conventionally thought of as mystics such as Mother Teresa and Mother Angelica.
 
The book is not a formulaic, chapter-by-chapter guide to the interior life. Rather, each day’s reflection invites the reader into a particular contemplation. “Entering into the light,” “Divine friendship,” “Looking in the mirror, seeing light and virtue,” “Pray without ceasing? A how-to” are some of my most favorite daily invitations. Lopez follows up with a brief introduction to an inspired writing, the excerpt itself, a consideration and then a final prayer. The reading and daily meditation takes a brief 15 minutes, but it can inspire an entire holy hour or direct your entire day. It’s worth pointing out that the book is beautifully bound and sturdy enough to survive transport in a purse, briefcase, or the door pocket of the car so that not one day of contemplation is missed.    
 
I have turned to this little volume often in my prayers since receiving my review copy. And I have found great consolation – the kind of consolation I saw on Antoinette’s smiling face after she spoke with Father John at the parish festival.  
 
For most of us, the mystical union with God will be found as contemplatives in an often loud and busy world. Inviting the mystics to accompany us along our journey of contemplation presents an opportunity for incredible growth in our prayerful encounter with God. In A Year with the Mystics, Kathryn Jean Lopez has mapped a lovely and useful path to facilitate this encounter. “Be not afraid as you’ve heard and will read,” she writes “Let him bring you to a peace that surpasses all understanding, even as he brings you into a deeper understanding in the heart of the Trinity.”

By Andrea Picciotti-Bayer

Two years ago, I joined a Catholic women’s symposium that discusses the weighty matters affecting our Church and our culture. One member of our group recently told us that her elderly father was in his last days. She asked for prayers and any resources we might have to guide her and her siblings and mother in navigating weighty end-of-life issues she expected they would face. There was a flurry of supportive responses and commitments to pray, but it took a while before anyone could forward along any helpful material. For my part, I knew of nothing to suggest off-hand.

I won’t face this problem again, thanks to Father Jeffrey Kirby’s We are the Lord’s: A Catholic Guide to Difficult End-of-Life Questions. A copy of this excellent, straight-forward end-of-life book arrived in the mail a few weeks ago, though, alas, a few days after my colleague’s father passed away (a “happy death” with family around, she relayed) and the email thread ended. Kirby sets forth basic principles of discernment for answering some of the hardest – and most common – questions surrounding end-of-life medical care and treatment. He also addresses the challenging practical issues that face the dying and their family members at this time.

Father Kirby begins by confronting the great modern misunderstanding of the human condition and dying. “No person is a burden,” he writes. Yes, this may seem obvious to so many us, but it’s no less important a truth, because we live in a culture that is “intoxicated with utilitarianism” – the notion that “any inconvenience for another person, or any service that makes us uncomfortable, is unmerited.” Christian teaching, however, has “always asserted that the only response to a person is love.” Loving the dying – seeking their good, delighting in them – exposes, Kirby argues, the “selfishness that disguises as compassion.” For children of God, Kirby reminds us, “quality of life” is “matured by love and an openness to live with inconvenience, discomfort, imperfection and suffering.”

Kirby outlines three important principles of discernment to guide bioethical and end-of-life decisions. One, we must recognize God as our Creator and accept the existence of an objective order of moral truth that is beyond us. “Our personal will, or desire for autonomy, are not sovereign,” he writes. “These must be placed within our human dignity and the objective order of moral goodness.” Two, we must understand our particular vocation. That is, we have to consider our duties and responsibilities toward others, our talents and capabilities, as well as the state of our souls. Three, we must appreciate the difference between what is morally obligatory (ordinary care, in the medical context) and what is morally optional (extraordinary care).

My own parents recently told me that they have “all of their affairs in order.” One such affair is the advanced directive, a summary of a person’s wishes in various medical situations. Father Kirby notes, however, that while such planning is prudent, it does not completely resolve end-of-life questions. As bioethicists often say, “When you have one situation, you have one situation.” Advanced directives, therefore, must always should be understood as guidelines and, most importantly, never can betray moral truths in light of the unique set of circumstances a person faces.

On a most practical level, We are the Lord’s includes a chapter that addresses specific medical questions. It’s a quick reference for readers facing urgent decisions. One common medical concern, for instance, is the continued provision of nutrition and hydration. Kirby is unequivocal in explaining that unless a person’s body cannot assimilate them or it becomes harmful, at no point should a sick person be denied food or water.

The overarching lesson of We are the Lord’s is to abide, and encourage our loved ones to abide, in a spirit of abandonment to the will of God. In living. And dying. The book’s title – coming, as it does, from Saint Paul’s letter to the Romans —reminds us how end-of-life decisions for ourselves or others should be faced: “For if we live, we live for the Lord, and if we die, we die for the Lord; so then, whether we live or die, we are the Lord’s.”

I’d not only recommend reading We are the Lord’s, I’d also suggest having a copy or two of Father Jeffrey Kirk’s handy guide available for the next time a friend, family member or colleague faces an end-of-life issue.

CONTEXT:

Recommendations conflict regarding universal application of formal screening instruments in primary care (PC) and PC-like settings for autism spectrum disorder (ASD).

CONTEXT:

Research reveals racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in autism diagnosis; there is limited information on potential disparities related to other dimensions of services.

The Importance of Being Earnest

As far as viral beauty trends go there’s no denying that the use of charcoal-based products is still going strong from face masks and sponges to teeth whitening powders.

SPENDING less on skin care products can be tempting. Aren’t all the products the same? Don’t they all just use the same ingredients? You’re basically just paying for the brand name, right? It’s far too easy to fall into this trap – the trap which leads us to try and convince ourselves that the dollar store brand stuff is just as good as high-end beauty products.

Dandelion Cafe

MY mother was known for her pizza but they were never round, not when we were growing up anyway. She would pull them from the ancient coal-fired cast iron range in the living room on long blackened oblong trays, the dough she had spent the day making puffed and undulating but always thin and super chewy.

Calabash African Restaurant

British Olympic Association chairman Sir Hugh Robertson has been selected to lead an independent governance review of World Rugby.

Celtic Connections