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Nuclear Tensions Must Not Be Sidelined During Coronavirus

1 May 2020

Ana Alecsandru

Research Assistant, International Security Programme
Although the pandemic means the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) is postponed, the delay could be an opportunity to better the health of the NPT regime.

2020-05-01-Iran-Peace-Nuclear

Painted stairs in Tehran, Iran symbolizing hope. Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Despite face-to-face diplomatic meetings being increasingly rare during the current disruption, COVID-19 will ultimately force a redefinition of national security and defence spending priorities, and this could provide the possibility of an improved political climate at RevCon when it happens in 2021.

With US presidential elections due in November and a gradual engagement growing between the EU and Iran, there could be a new context for more cooperation between states by 2021. Two key areas of focus over the coming months will be the arms control talks between the United States and Russia, and Iran’s compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal.

It is too early to discern the medium- and longer-term consequences of COVID-19 for defence ministries, but a greater focus on societal resilience and reinvigorating economic productivity will likely undercut the rationale for expensive nuclear modernization.

Therefore, extending the current New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) would be the best, most practical option to give both Russia and the United States time to explore more ambitious multilateral arms control measures, while allowing their current focus to remain on the pandemic and economic relief.

Continuing distrust

But with the current treaty — which limits nuclear warheads, missiles, bombers, and launchers — due to expire in February 2021, the continuing distrust between the United States and Russia makes this extension hard to achieve, and a follow-on treaty even less likely.

Prospects for future bilateral negotiations are hindered by President Donald Trump’s vision for a trilateral arms control initiative involving both China and Russia. But China opposes this on the grounds that its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than that of the two others.

While there appears to be agreement that the nuclear arsenals of China, France, and the UK (the NPT nuclear-weapons states) and those of the states outside the treaty (India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel) will all have to be taken into account going forward, a practical mechanism for doing so proves elusive.

If Joe Biden wins the US presidency he seems likely to pursue an extension of the New START treaty and could also prevent a withdrawal from the Open Skies treaty, the latest arms control agreement targeted by the Trump administration.

Under a Biden administration, the United States would also probably re-join the JCPOA, provided Tehran returned to strict compliance with the deal. Biden could even use the team that negotiated the Iran deal to advance the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

For an NPT regime already confronted by a series of longstanding divergences, it is essential that Iran remains a signatory especially as tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated recently — due to the Qassim Suleimani assassination and the recent claim by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps to have successfully placed the country’s first military satellite into orbit.

This announcement raised red flags among experts about whether Iran is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles due to the dual-use nature of space technology. The satellite launch — deeply troubling for Iran’s neighbours and the EU countries — may strengthen the US argument that it is a cover for the development of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

However, as with many other countries, Iran is struggling with a severe coronavirus crisis and will be pouring its scientific expertise and funds into that rather than other efforts — including the nuclear programme.

Those European countries supporting the trading mechanism INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) for sending humanitarian goods into Iran could use this crisis to encourage Iran to remain in compliance with the JCPOA and its NPT obligations.

France, Germany and the UK (the E3) have already successfully concluded the first transaction, which was to facilitate the export of medical goods from Europe to Iran. But the recent Iranian escalatory steps will most certainly place a strain on the preservation of this arrangement.

COVID-19 might have delayed Iran’s next breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement but Tehran will inevitably seek to strengthen its hand before any potential negotiations with the United States after the presidential elections.

As frosty US-Iranian relations — exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic — prevent diplomatic negotiations, this constructive engagement between the E3 and Iran might prove instrumental in reviving the JCPOA and ensuring Iran stays committed to both nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

While countries focus their efforts on tackling the coronavirus pandemic, it is understandable resources may be limited for other global challenges, such as the increasing risk of nuclear weapons use across several regions.

But the potential ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis for the NPT regime are profound. Ongoing tensions between the nuclear-armed states must not be ignored while the world’s focus is elsewhere, and the nuclear community should continue to work together to progress nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, building bridges of cooperation and trust that can long outlast the pandemic.




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It's a man's world: carnal spectatorship and dissonant masculinities in Islamic State videos

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Manni Crone

Islamic State videos have often been associated with savage violence and beheadings. An in-depth scrutiny however reveals another striking feature: that female bodies are absent, blurred or mute. Examining a few Islamic State videos in depth, the article suggests that the invisibility of women in tandem with the ostentatious visibility of male bodies enable gendered and embodied spectators to indulge in homoerotic as well as heterosexual imaginaries. In contrast to studies on visual security and online radicalization which assert that images affect an audience, this article focuses on the interaction between video and audience and argues that spectators are not only rational and emotional but embodied and gendered as well. Islamic State videos do not only attract western foreign fighters through religious–ideological rhetoric or emotional impact but also through gendered forms of pleasure and desire that enable carnal imagination and identification. The article probes the analytical purchase of carnal aesthetics and spectatorship.




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Politics, policy-making and the presence of images of suffering children

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helen Berents

In 2017 Trump expressed pity for the ‘beautiful babies’ killed in a gas attack on Khan Shaykhun in Syria before launching airstrikes against President Assad's regime. Images of suffering children in world politics are often used as a synecdoche for a broader conflict or disaster. Injured, suffering, or dead; the ways in which images of children circulate in global public discourse must be critically examined to uncover the assumptions that operate in these environments. This article explores reactions to images of children by representatives and leaders of states to trace the interconnected affective and political dimensions of these images. In contrast to attending to the expected empathetic responses prompted by images of children, this article particularly focuses on when such images prompt bellicose foreign policy decision-making. In doing this, the article forwards a way of thinking about images as contentious affective objects in international relations. The ways in which images of children's bodies and suffering are strategically deployed by politicians deserves closer scrutiny to uncover the visual politics of childhood inherent in these moments of international politics and policy-making.




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Social media and the visibility of horrific violence

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Constance Duncombe

Images are central to social media communication. Billions of images are shared across different social media platforms every day: photos, cartoons, GIFs and short video clips are exchanged by users, facilitating or framing discourse on participatory sites such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Many of these images depict events of extreme violence, which circulate uninhibited by the conventional constraints associated with traditional news media censorship. A question arises here as to how such images mobilize public and policy-making responses to atrocities. This article examines the political dynamics of violent social media images. I argue that the particular qualities of social media can play an important role in how the digital visibility of horrific violence influences policy-making as a response to such atrocities. There is an important connection between the properties of social media platforms that allow user images to reach a global audience in real time and the emotional responses that this level of circulation generates. In turn, the pressure created by events made globally visible through the circulation of violent images and the audience responses to those images puts governments in a position where they are forced to act, which has significant implications for policy-making.




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Horror, apocalypse and world politics (free)

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Tim Aistrope and Stefanie Fishel

World politics generates a long list of anxiety-inspiring scenarios that threaten to unravel everyday life with sudden and violent destruction. From total war and the concentration camps, through nuclear firestorms, global pandemics and climate disaster, the diabolical violence of the recent past and conceivable future is the stuff of nightmares. Yet International Relations scholars and practitioners are often criticized for being disconnected from the human realities of international calamity. The challenge for both is to engage world politics in a way that foregrounds the human consequences of extreme violence and depravation. In this article, we explore these difficult experiences through popular culture representations of the apocalypse, a subject of intense interest for researchers in a discipline where global destruction is a distinct possibility. However, we take a different route by engaging the apocalypse through the horror genre, the one place where human suffering is explicitly accentuated. We argue that the horror genre is at once an access point for ethical engagement with the human consequences of extreme violence and a complex terrain where dark imaginings can be politically loaded, culturally specific and ethically ambiguous.




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Soundscapes of war: the audio-visual performance of war by Shi'a militias in Iraq and Syria

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Helle Malmvig

This article sets out to bring sound and music to the field of visual studies in International Relations. It argues that IR largely has approached the visual field as if it was without sound; neglecting how audial landscapes frame and direct our interpretation of moving imagery. Sound and music contribute to making imagery intelligible to us, we ‘hear the pictures’ often without noticing. The audial can for instance articulate a visual absence, or blast visual signs, bring out certain emotional stages or subjects’ inner life. Audial frames steer us in distinct directions, they can mute the cries of the wounded in war, or amplify the sounds of joy of soldiers shooting in the air. To bring the audial and the visual analytically and empirically together, the article therefore proposes four key analytical themes: 1) the audial–visual frame, 2) point of view/point of audition, 3) modes of audio-visual synchronization and 4) aesthetics moods. These are applied to a study of ‘war music videos’ in Iraq and Syria made and circulated by Shi'a militias currently fighting there. Such war music videos, it is suggested, are not just artefacts of popular culture, but have become integral parts of how warfare is practiced today, and one that is shared by soldiers in the US and Europe. War music videos are performing war, just as they shape how war is known by spectators and participants alike.




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Accountability, denial and the future-proofing of British torture

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Ruth Blakeley and Sam Raphael

When powerful liberal democratic states are found to be complicit in extreme violations of human rights, how do they respond and why do they respond as they do? Drawing on the example of the United Kingdom's complicity in torture since 9/11, this article demonstrates how reluctant the UK has been to permit a full reckoning with its torturous past. We demonstrate that successive UK governments engaged in various forms of denial, obfuscation and attempts to obstruct investigation and avoid accountability. The net effect of their responses has been to deny the victims redress, through adequate judicial processes, and to deny the public adequate state accountability. These responses are not simply aimed at shielding from prosecution the perpetrators and those who have oversight of them, nor preventing political embarrassment. The various forms of denial and obstruction are also designed to ensure that collusion can continue uninterrupted. A core concern of intelligence officials and ministers has been to prevent any process that would lead to a comprehensive prohibition on involvement in operations where torture and cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment are a real possibility. The door remains wide open, and deliberately so, for British involvement in torture.




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Power and diplomacy in the post-liberal cyberspace

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

André Barrinha and Thomas Renard

It is becoming widely accepted that we have transitioned, or are now transitioning, from an international liberal order to a different reality. Whether that reality is different solely in terms of power dynamics, or also in terms of values and institutions, is up for discussion. The growing body of literature on ‘post-liberalism’ is used as an entry-point for this article, which aims to explore how the post-liberal transition applies to cyberspace. We explore how power dynamics are evolving in cyberspace, as well as how established norms, values and institutions are contested. The article then looks at the emergence of cyber diplomacy as a consequence and response to the post-liberal transition. As it will be argued, if cyberspace was a creation of the liberal order, cyber-diplomacy is a post-liberal world practice. What role it plays in shaping a new order or building bridges between different political visions, and what it means for the future of cyberspace, will constitute key points of discussion.




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Let's talk about the interregnum: Gramsci and the crisis of the liberal world order

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Milan Babic

The liberal international order (LIO) is in crisis. Numerous publications, debates and events have time and again made it clear that we are in the midst of a grand transformation of world order. While most contributions focus on either what is slowly dying (the LIO) or what might come next (China, multipolarity, chaos?), there is less analytical engagement with what lies in between those two phases of world order. Under the assumption that this period could last years or even decades, a set of analytical tools to understand this interregnum is urgently needed. This article proposes an analytical framework that builds on Gramscian concepts of crisis that will help us understand the current crisis of the LIO in a more systematic way. It addresses a gap in the literature on changing world order by elaborating three Gramsci-inspired crisis characteristics—processuality, organicity and morbidity—that sketch the current crisis landscape in a systematic way. Building on this framework, the article suggests different empirical entry points to the study of the crisis of the LIO and calls for a research agenda that takes this crisis seriously as a distinct period of changing world orders.




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China and Russia in R2P debates at the UN Security Council

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

Zheng Chen and Hang Yin

While China and Russia's general policies towards the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are similar, the two reveal nuanced differences in addressing specific emergencies. Both express support for the first two pillars of R2P while resisting coercive intervention under its aegis, as they share anxieties of domestic political security and concerns about their international image. Nonetheless, addressing cases like the Syrian crisis, Russian statements are more assertive and even aggressive while Chinese ones are usually vague and reactive. This article highlights the two states’ different tones through computer-assisted text analyses. It argues that diplomatic styles reflect Russian and Chinese perceptions of their own place in the evolving international order. Experiences in past decades create divergent reference points and status prospects for them, which leads to their different strategies in signalling Great Power status. As Beijing is optimistic about its status-rising prospects, it exercises more self-restraint in order to avoid external containments and is reluctant to act as an independent ‘spoiler’. Meanwhile, Moscow interprets its Great Power status more from a frame of ‘loss’ and therefore is inclined to adopt a sterner approach to signal its status. Although their policies complement each other on many occasions, there is nothing akin to a Sino–Russian ‘bloc’.




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Violence, visuality and world politics

7 May 2020 , Volume 96, Number 3

In the May 2020 issue of International Affairs, we explore the many uses of images in the conduct of global politics.

Helen Berents and Constance Duncombe

This special section brings together diverse spaces and modes of visuality through specific, sustained attention to the various types of violence depicted. In doing so, these articles draw out a concern for the visual constitution of violence in global politics, and its emotional and political consequences. Individually and collectively, the contributions highlight the ways in which policy-makers and researchers are daily confronted by violent images that influence how complex political problems are seen and consequently understood. Paying attention to the power of the visuality of violence is necessary to understand how certain kinds of policy responses to direct and indirect violence unfold.




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Webinar: Director's Briefing – US Elections: The Road to November 2020

Corporate Members Event Webinar Partners and Major Corporates

16 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Online

Event participants

Edward Luce, US National Editor and Columnist, Financial Times
Dr Lindsay Newman, Senior Research Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

As the coronavirus crisis deepens globally, the effects have reverberated through the American economy, and in only a few short weeks, the US presidential election race has changed beyond recognition. Unemployment claims have hit unprecedented levels and look set to continue to rise with stark warnings that the worst is still to come. Polling, however, has suggested that over half the country approves of the way President Trump is handling the crisis. No issue is likely to be more important to voters come November than the recovery and rebuilding of America once the pandemic subsides.
 
In this discussion, Ed Luce and Dr Lindsay Newman will examine the new uncertain outlook for the November 2020 election and discuss how it might play out in these challenging circumstances. Where are we versus where we thought we would be at this point in the election cycle? What should we be watching for in the coming months as the US looks to hold elections in these uncharted waters? Will the elections effectively become a referendum on Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic? And what will this mean for potential policy priorities of the president?

This event is only open to Major Corporate Member and Partner organizations and selected giving circles of Chatham House. If you'd like to attend, please RSVP to rsvp@chathamhouse.org.




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Webinar: Are the Gulf Standoffs Resolvable?

Research Event

21 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

David Roberts, Assistant Professor and School of Security Studies Lead for Regional Security and Development, King's College London
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Sanam Vakil, Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

This webinar, part of the MENA Programme Webinar Series, will examine the trajectory of political and security dynamics in the Gulf in view of the ongoing rift within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the death of Sultan Qaboos in Oman, the escalation of tensions between Iran and the United States, and the COVID-19 crisis.

Speakers will explore the orientation of the GCC under a new Secretary-General and the prospects for mediation between Qatar and its neighbours, the future of Omani domestic and foreign policy under Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, eventual transitions to new leadership in Bahrain and Kuwait, and whether the impact of COVID-19 may help replace the confrontation within the GCC with closer coordination among its six member states.

The webinar will be livestreamed on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Webinar: Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for African Economies and Development

Research Event

21 April 2020 - 4:30pm to 5:30pm

Event participants

Dr Hafez Ghanem, Vice President for Africa, World Bank
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Dr Hafez Ghanem discusses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for African economies and their development and poverty reduction efforts, and assesses the priorities and obstacles for establishing a comprehensive response to the crisis.
 
While the acute strain placed on health systems by the COVID-19 pandemic is already in evidence, the long-term economic fallout from the crisis is yet to fully manifest.
 
For Africa it is the economic impact that may leave the most enduring legacy: from the direct expense of measures to treat, detect and reduce the spread of the virus; to the indirect costs of domestic lockdown measures, global supply chain disruptions and plummeting commodity prices.
 
As decision-makers globally start to plan for the scale of this economic shock, strategizing in and on Africa to meet the challenge will require unprecedented planning and commitment - and will need to be matched by support from international partners to enable long-term recovery.
 

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Webinar: Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Food Security and Resilience in Africa

Research Event

23 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Dr Arif Husain, Chief Economist and Director of Research, Assessment and Monitoring, United Nations World Food Programme
Respondent: Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Professor Tim Benton, Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House
Dr Arif Husain gives his assessment of the potential impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on food security in Africa and what can be done to prevent a food security emergency.
 
Linked to the immediate public health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are those of economic and food security, particularly significant for low- and middle-income countries. Currently more than 821 million people globally go hungry, with 100 million of those suffering acute hunger, and this will worsen if the evolving economic emergency becomes a food security emergency.
 
Sub-Saharan African countries rely on trade for food security and for revenue; they imported more than 40 million tons of cereal from around the world in 2018, according to the World Food Programme (WFP). The region faces stark new challenges due to the pandemic.

This event launches the WFP paper COVID-19: Potential impact on the world’s poorest people.

Department/project

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Webinar: Reimagining the Role of State and Non-State Actors in (Re)building National Health Systems in the Arab World

Research Event

22 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Fadi El-Jardali, Professor of Health Policy and Systems, American University of Beirut
Moderator: Nadim Houry, Executive Director, Arab Reform Initiative

As new cases of COVID-19 continue to surge, countries around the world struggle to mitigate the public health and economic effects of the virus. It is becoming increasingly clear that an effective pandemic response requires a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach. In the Arab world, where health systems are already strained by armed conflicts and displaced populations, a whole-of-society response to the pandemic is particularly critical as countries have become increasingly dependent on non-state actors, notably the private sector, for healthcare provision and any response that includes the state alone may not be sufficient to address the pandemic.

In a recent article, Fadi El-Jardali, argued that while the pandemic will have grave health and economic consequences for years to come, it brings with it a valuable opportunity to re-envision the role of state and non-state actors in strengthening health systems. The article addressed the need for increased collaboration between state and non-state actors, and the rethinking of existing cooperation models to provide quality healthcare services for all.  

In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, Dr El-Jardali will discuss how state and non-state actors can collaborate more effectively to address the shortcomings of national health care systems amidst the pandemic and beyond. The article’s author will share insights on the different capacities available in Arab societies that governments can draw upon to ensure that Universal Health Coverage, equity considerations and social justice are at the core of health systems.

You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

 

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Online Study Group: All Lukashenka’s Men: The Belarusian Ruling Elite and Why It Matters

Invitation Only Research Event

22 April 2020 - 2:30pm to 4:00pm

Event participants

Ryhor Astapenia, Robert Bosch Stiftung Academy Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House

Soon after assuming power in 1994, President Aliaksandr Lukashenka turned his back on democratic norms and overpowered the Belarusian political elite. However, the influence of the governing elite in Belarus is growing again. It seems likely that the current governing class could rule the country after Lukashenka leaves. It is thus important to study Belarusian elites not only to understand the current regime, but also to better forecast and navigate the political system that will one day replace it. 

This study group aims to disentangle how the Belarusian political system works, outline the types of individuals that make up the Belarusian ruling elite, assess the interaction of the elite and institutions with the West, and suggest changes that Western political actors might make to their approach to the Belarusian ruling class.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Webinar: Idlib at Risk – Doctors and First Responders in Northwest Syria

Members Event Webinar

23 April 2020 - 5:00pm to 6:00pm

Online

Event participants

Dr Munzer al-Khalil, Head, Idlib Health Directorate
Raed Al Saleh, Director, Syria Civil Defence (The White Helmets)
Alaa Rajaa Mughrabieh, Child Protection Officer, Hurras Network
Chair: Dr Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

 

In Syria, uncertainty about the safety of the ceasefire agreed between Russia and Turkey last month is inhibiting 1 million people who have been displaced since December 2019 from returning home.

The looming COVID-19 global health crisis threatens to further devastate those most vulnerable as the conditions in northwest Syria’s refugee camps make it hard to practice common social distancing guidelines. Added to this, the medical infrastructure in the region has been decimated after years of bombings which has disabled over 70 health facilities since April 2019.

This webinar highlights the potentially catastrophic risks of a coronavirus outbreak in Idlib and displacement camps in northwest Syria by speaking with medical and civil society actors working in the region. How are doctors and local humanitarian organizations scaling up their medical and prevention response to the COVID-19 outbreak?

What key supplies such as ventilators, testing kits and critical sanitary equipment are still lacking? And how can the international community step in to help mitigate the potentially devastating consequences of an outbreak in these refugee camps?

This event is run in collaboration with The Syria Campaign, a human rights organization working with Syrian civil society to raise the voices of those struggling for democracy, and support frontline activists and humanitarians.




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Webinar: The Opportunity of Crisis? Transitioning to a Sustainable Global Economy

Corporate Members Event Webinar

22 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 1:45pm

Event participants

Professor Tim Benton, Research Director, Emerging Risks and Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House

Creon Butler, Research Director, Trade, Investment & New Governance Models; Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

Elsa Palanza, Managing Director, Global Head of Sustainability and ESG, Barclays

Chair: Laura Wellesley, Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham House

With the Asian Development Bank estimating that the COVID-19 outbreak’s global cost could reach $4.1 trillion and the OECD warning that the shock caused by the pandemic is already greater than the financial crisis of 2007, the global economic impact of the health emergency is not only vast but also unpredictable. The disruption to a number of industries and sectors including, but not limited to, the airline and energy industries, could result in long-term damage to global trade flows, supply and demand. But does the pandemic also present an opportunity to build sustainable economies that can cope with such threats?

This panel will explore the ways in which the coronavirus outbreak has highlighted vulnerabilities in global systems and what this might mean for a transition towards a sustainable economy. How do we explain the failure of businesses and governments to prepare for systemic shocks and the lack of resilience in global structures and models? How should governments prepare to reshape policy, business practices and societal behaviour to better tackle climate change while addressing the current emergency? And might the emergency offer opportunities to kick start a sustainable path towards a greener future?

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members and giving circles.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.




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Webinar: The Global Economy after COVID-19

Members Event

20 April 2020 - 6:00pm to 7:00pm

Online

Event participants

The Rt Hon Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer (2016-19)
Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House
 

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to expand and claim lives across the globe, the OECD has warned that the economic shock it has caused has already surpassed that of the financial crisis of 2007/8.

With strict social distancing measures imposing an enormous cost on world economies, governments are faced with the difficult task of determining how best to design policy response with a view of saving lives and minimizing economic loss alike. 

Against this backdrop, former UK chancellor of the exchequer Philip Hammond considers the economic implications for a world that has practically ground to a halt and provide his reflections on the future of the global economy.

Members Events Team




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Virtual Roundtable: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Wider FSU Region

Invitation Only Research Event

21 April 2020 - 10:00am to 11:30am

Event participants

Christopher Davis, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford
Nino Evgenidze, Executive Director, EPRC
Katya Gorchinskaya, Journalist, former CEO of Hromadske.ua
Konstantin Sokulskiy, Head of Governance, UNDP, Kazakhstan
Chair: James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House

COVID-19 has put a serious strain on healthcare and economic systems around the world. This virtual roundtable will explore its impact on Russia, Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Through a comparative examination of government and society responses, this event will show how COVID-19 has laid bare the region’s broader social, economic and political challenges.

Department/project

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Webinar: Turkey’s Challenging Post-COVID 19 Outlook

Invitation Only Research Event

7 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Dr Murat Ucer, Turkey Country Analyst, GlobalSource Partners 
Chair: Fadi Hakura, Manager, Turkey Project, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has so far refused to impose a nation-wide lockdown to suppress the spread of coronavirus in the country. In late March, Turkish health officials announced that they expect the virus to peak in three weeks' time and for Turkey to overcome it quickly. At the same time, Turkey has ruled out turning to the IMF for help in dealing with the crisis despite growing pressures on the Lira and the wider economy. The country's relations with its traditional allies, the US and Europe, remain thorny.
 
This event will focus on the likely impact of the epidemic on Turkey's economy and politics. What are the reasons behind Erdogan’s reluctance to implement a comprehensive lockdown to break the chain of virus transmission? Why is Turkey resolutely opposed to agreeing a funding package with the IMF? What is the macro outlook for 2020 and beyond for the country's economy? And how may the government's long-term popularity be affected?

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Department/project

Alina Lyadova

Europe Programme Coordinator




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Webinar: Coordinating the Fight Against Financial Crime

Corporate Members Event Webinar

1 July 2020 - 5:00pm to 6:00pm
Add to Calendar

Che Sidanius, Global Head of Regulation & Industry Affairs, Refinitiv

Patricia Sullivan, Global Co-Head, Financial Crime Compliance, Standard Chartered

Dame Sara Thornton, Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner, UK

Chair: Tom Keatinge, Director, Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies, RUSI

 

Illicit finance not only threatens financial stability and inclusion but also provides support for terrorism and is a primary incentive for human trafficking, the illegal wildlife trade and narcotics smuggling. Frequently, actors capitalize on loopholes and inefficiencies resulting from the lack of a coordinated response to financial crime and an underpowered global system for tracking illicit financial flows. Enhanced public-private partnerships, in addition to investment in tackling financial crime from governments, international bodies and private industries, are necessary to develop regulatory frameworks, effective responses and valuable coordination between law enforcement, policymakers, regulators and financial institutions. But how should businesses structure their efforts so that their business interests are protected and the work they do is of use to others fighting financial crime?

This webinar will explore solutions to enable public-private partnerships to work together to combat financial crime. What do successful partnerships need from each side to ensure that the work being done is efficient and effective? How can the industry’s internal effectiveness impact the ‘real-world’ victims? And what barriers impede public-private partnerships operating as a force for good? 

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members and giving circles.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.




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Webinar: Global Economic Recovery and Resilience to Systemic Shocks

Corporate Members Event Webinar

20 May 2020 - 5:00pm to 5:45pm
Add to Calendar

Francesca Viliani, Consultant Researcher, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Director, Public Health, International SOS

Sven Smit, Co-Chair, McKinsey Global Institute and Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company, Amsterdam

Chair: Creon Butler, Research Director, Trade, Investment & New Governance Models: Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

 

The outbreak of COVID-19 has demonstrated the wide-ranging and immediate impact a systemic shock can have on the global economy including the financial loss caused by the emergency shutdown of many retail operations, the loss of income for individuals who are forced to stay indoors and the major disruption to supply chains. The longer term impacts are still being realized and depend heavily on the ability of industry and the government to respond effectively to the direct economic shock caused by the pandemic.

Systemic shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic demand immediate responses, but should also encourage governments and industries to re-examine their recovery processes, their resilience and their forward planning. In this webinar, the panellists will discuss the short and long-term impacts of the current crisis and explore how industry can help ensure that the global economy is able to recover from, and build resilience to, future systemic shocks. How do business leaders move from making decisions to reimagining a ‘new normal’ and reforming their practices? What are the critical decisions that businesses should consider when planning for this 'new normal'? And how far can these decisions be based on expected changes to governmental or intergovernmental regulation of different sectors?   

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members and giving circles.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.




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Webinar: US Foreign Policy in a Post COVID-19 World

Research Event

29 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

Tony Blinken, Senior Advisor, Biden for President; US Deputy Secretary of State, 2015 - 17
In Conversation with: Sir Peter Westmacott, Associate Fellow, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House; British Ambassador to the United States, 2012 - 16
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House
The coronavirus crisis has accentuated the need for US leadership and international cooperation to address the global health emergency and economic crisis. The pandemic comes at a time of profound uncertainty over America's future role in the world, its commitments to transatlantic security, and its relationship with China.
 
As we face the 2020 US Presidential elections, America's European partners look ahead to the potential foreign policy priorities of the next US administration.
 
In this conversation, Tony Blinken, US Deputy Secretary of State 2015 – 17, speaks with Sir Peter Westmacott, British Ambassador to the US 2012 – 16, about the impact of COVID-19 and the 2020 US presidential elections on America’s global role.

US and Americas Programme




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Webinar: Homeland Security and the Emergency Response to Coronavirus in the US

Research Event

26 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar

Secretary Jeh Johnson, Partner, Paul, Weiss; US Secretary of Homeland Security, 2013 - 17
Chair: Amy Pope, Partner, Schillings; Associate Fellow, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House

This  event is  part of the US and Americas Programme Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US and the State of the World and will take place virtually only.

Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST. 

US and Americas Programme

Department/project




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Webinar: Does COVID-19 Spell the End of America's Interest in Globalization?

Research Event

19 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar
Dr Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO, New America
Professor Stephen Walt, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House
This  event is  part of the US and Americas Programme Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US and the State of the World and will take place virtually only.
 
Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST.

US and Americas Programme

Department/project




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Webinar: Egypt and the Gulf: Allies and Rivals

Research Event

23 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Speaker: David Butter, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Moderator: Mohamed El Dahshan, Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

The webinar will be livestreamed on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Egypt and the Gulf Arab region have long been important poles of political, military, economic and cultural power and influence in the Middle East. A recently published Chatham House paper examines the strategic and economic relationship between Egypt and the Gulf, focusing in particular on the period since Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi came to power in Egypt. Author David Butter offers a detailed evaluation of these economic relationships, in the broader context of a strategic alliance that, since 2013, has been informed by a common commitment between Egypt and the UAE in particular to keep in check the Muslim Brotherhood and its regional state supporters, primarily Turkey and Qatar.

In this webinar, the author will discuss the paper’s main argument, namely, that the degree of Egypt’s dependence on Gulf countries has fluctuated, and that by 2019, Egypt’s direct financial dependence on the Gulf was significantly reduced by comparison with the initial three years of the Sisi era, although other economic linkages such as investment, trade, remittances and tourism remained strong, with potential for growth. The speaker will also discuss the impact of the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on Egypt’s and Gulf countries’ economies and will explore the implications for the relationship between Egypt and the Gulf.

This webinar is part of the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme's Online Event Series. The event will be held on the record.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Virtual Breakfast: Europe in the Age of COVID-19: Priorities and Debates

Invitation Only Research Event

6 May 2020 - 9:00am to 10:00am

Event participants

Duncan Robinson, Charlemagne Columnist; Brussels Bureau Chief, the Economist
Chair: Pepijn Bergsen, Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

The new European Commission had a bold new agenda when it began its work in December 2019, with climate change, digital transformation and strengthening European democracy among its priorities. Less than six months later, the European continent is in the midst of the worst crisis since the second World War and business as usual has been taken over by crisis management.

Has COVID-19 monopolized the agenda in Brussels? What priorities are still on the table and what debates have fallen victim to the coronavirus? Is the current crisis reigniting and exacerbating existing faultlines in the EU or creating new ones?

Reflecting on his first four months as the Economist’s Charlemagne columnist, the speaker will share what decision-making in Brussels looks like during a pandemic and what debates are dominating conversations in the EU capital today.

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Alina Lyadova

Europe Programme Coordinator




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Money Matters: Climate Finance and the COP

Research Event

20 April 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Event participants

Tenzin Wangmo, Lead Negotiator of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group 
Mattias Frumerie, Director at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Rachel Ward, Programme Director and Head of Policy at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change
Iseoluwa Akintunde, Mo Ibrahim Academy Fellow at Chatham House
Chair: Kirsty Hamilton, Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Finance plays a key role in enabling climate change mitigation and adaptation. It is also a contested issue in the UN climate negotiations. The fourth event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series will explore the politics of climate finance in the context of the COP, and provide a comprehensive update of the main climate finance-related negotiation items and processes. The topic is particularly timely given that the UK Government has made climate finance one of its top thematic priorities for COP26 and that 2020 constitutes the deadline for developed countries to mobilise USD 100 billion per year to support climate action in developing countries.

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series: Climate Change and National Security

Research Event

25 March 2020 - 9:00am to 10:30am

Event participants

Lieutenant General Richard Nugee, Departmental Lead for Climate Change and Sustainability in the UK Ministry of Defence
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, Vice Dean (Public Policy) Engineering Sciences at the University College London and Associate Fellow at Chatham House
Dr. Patricia Lewis, Research Director for Conflict, Science and Technology, and Director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House
Professor Yacob Mulugetta, Professor of Energy and Development Policy at the University College London
Chair: Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House
Extreme weather, rising sea levels and a melting Arctic - the effects of climate change are posing an increasingly large threat to national security worldwide. Although the issue has gained traction within the international community in recent years, including within the UN Security Council, it is urgent that governments act more decisively to mitigate and respond to the threat, not least given that climate change is happening faster and in a more powerful way than originally anticipated.
 
The third event in the Chatham House COP26 Diplomatic Briefing Series – 'Climate Change and National Security' - will analyze how climate change acts as a threat multiplier, fuelling instability and endangering economic, social and political systems across the globe. The briefing will also provide recommendations of what governments and other stakeholders should do to develop effective responses.
 

Anna Aberg

Research Analyst, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme
020 7314 3629




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Virtual Roundtable: Re-integration or Dis-integration: What Does the Future Hold for Occupied Donbas?

Invitation Only Research Event

28 April 2020 - 4:00pm to 5:30pm

Event participants

Paul D’anieri, Professor of Public Policy and Political Science, University of California, Riverside
Vlad Mykhnenko, Associate Professor of Sustainable Urban Development, St Peter’s College, University of Oxford
Chair: Orysia Lutsevych, Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House

The armed conflict in Donbas has now entered its seventh year. President Zelenskyy, who came to power in May 2019, promised to end the war with Russia and bring peace to Ukraine.

Since assuming office, Zelenskyy has managed to revive the Normandy Format talks, complete military disengagement at three points along the line of contact and negotiate the release of over a hundred Ukrainians held as prisoners of war in Russia. However, ceasefire violations continue to occur frequently.

Looking at the origins of the armed conflict in Donbas and the region’s economic role in Ukraine’s economy, this event discusses the prospects for conflict resolution. Do the recent events signify an opportunity for peace? Does Zelenskyy have a viable plan for re-integrating Donbas or will the region be cut off from mainland Ukraine for the foreseeable future?

The speakers assess the strategy and track record of the Ukrainian government and its Western allies in bringing parts of the occupied Donbas under Kyiv’s control. They also review possible policy implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the conflict.

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Webinar: Russian Disinformation's Golden Moment: Challenges and Responses in the COVID-19 Era

Invitation Only Research Event

7 May 2020 - 3:00pm to 4:30pm

Event participants

Anneli Ahonen, Head, StratCom East Task Force, European External Action Service
Keir Giles, Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Thomas Kent, Adjunct Associate Professor, Harriman Institute, Columbia University; Senior Fellow, the Jamestown Foundation
Chairs:
James Nixey, Programme Director, Russia and Eurasia, Chatham House
Glen Howard, President, The Jamestown Foundation
The COVID-19 pandemic provides the ideal environment for malign influence to thrive as it feeds on fear and a vacuum of authoritative information. What are the current challenges posed by Russian disinformation, and how should Western nations be responding?
 
In this discussion, jointly hosted by the Jamestown Foundation and the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme, the speakers will consider what best practice looks like in safeguarding Western societies against the pernicious effects of disinformation. 
 
This event will be held on the record.

Anna Morgan

Administrator, Ukraine Forum
+44 (0)20 7389 3274




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Webinar: Weekly COVID-19 Pandemic Briefing – The Swedish Approach

Members Event Webinar

29 April 2020 - 10:00am to 11:00am

Online

Event participants

Professor Johan Giesecke, MD, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Karolinska Institute Medical University, Stockholm; State Epidemiologist, Sweden (1995-05)
Professor David Heymann CBE, Distinguished Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Executive Director, Communicable Diseases Cluster, World Health Organization (1998-03)
Chair: Emma Ross, Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House

The coronavirus pandemic continues to claim lives around the world. As countries grapple with how best to tackle the virus, and the reverberations the pandemic is sending through their societies and economies, scientific understanding of how the COVID-19 virus is behaving and what measures might best combat it continues to advance.

Join us for the sixth in a weekly series of interactive webinars on the coronavirus with Professor David Heymann and special guest, Johan Giesecke, helping us to understand the facts and make sense of the latest developments in the global crisis. What strategy has Sweden embraced and why? Can a herd immunity strategy work in the fight against COVID-19? How insightful is it to compare different nations’ approaches and what does the degree of variation reveal?

Professor Heymann is a world-leading authority on infectious disease outbreaks. He led the World Health Organization’s response to SARS and has been advising the organization on its response to the coronavirus. 

Professor Giesecke is professor emeritus of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute Medical University in Stockholm. He was state epidemiologist for Sweden from 1995 to 2005 and the first chief scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) from 2005 to 2014.




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Webinar: Responding to COVID-19 – International Coordination and Cooperation

Members Event Webinar

1 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 1:45pm

Event participants

Yanzhong Huang, Senior Fellow for Global Health, Council on Foreign Relations

Dr Olive Shisana, President and CEO, Evidence Based Solutions; Special Advisor on Social Policy to President Cyril Ramaphosa 

Rob Yates, Director, Global Health Programme; Executive Director, Centre for Universal Health, Chatham House

Chair: Dr Champa Patel, Director, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House

 

As a body with a relatively small operating budget and no formal mechanisms, or authority, to sanction member states that fail to comply with its guidance, the World Health Organization has been limited in its ability to coordinate a global response to the COVID-19 outbreak. At the same time, the organization is reliant on an international order that the current coronavirus crisis is, arguably, disrupting: as containment measures become more important in stemming the spread of the virus, the temptation to implement protectionist policies is increasing among nations. For example, the UK did not participate in an EU scheme to buy PPE and Germany has accused the US of ‘piracy’ after it reportedly diverted a shipment of masks intended for Berlin. Elsewhere, despite rhetorical commitments from the G7 and G20, a detailed plan for a comprehensive international response has not been forthcoming. 

The panel will discuss issues of coordination and cooperation in the international response to COVID-19. Have global trends prior to the outbreak contributed to the slow and disjointed international response? How has the pandemic exposed fissures in the extent to which nations are willing to cooperate? And what is the capacity of international organizations such as the WHO to coordinate a concerted transnational response and what could the implications be for the future of globalization and the international liberal order?

This event is open to Chatham House Members. Not a member? Find out more.




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Webinar: European Democracy in the Last 100 Years: Economic Crises and Political Upheaval

Members Event Webinar

6 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Pepijn Bergsen, Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

Dr Sheri Berman, Professor of Political Science, Barnard College

Chair: Hans Kundnani, Senior Research Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House

 

In the last 100 years, global economic crises from the Great Depression of the 1930s to the 2008 financial crash have contributed to significant political changes in Europe, often leading to a rise in popularity for extremist parties and politics. As Europe contends with a perceived crisis of democracy - now compounded by the varied responses to the coronavirus outbreak - how should we understand the relationship between externally-driven economic crises, political upheaval and democracy?

The panellists will consider the parallels between the political responses to some of the greatest economic crises Europe has experienced in the last century. Given that economic crises often transcend borders, why does political disruption vary between democracies? What can history tell us about the potential political impact of the unfolding COVID-19-related economic crisis? And will the unprecedented financial interventions by governments across Europe fundamentally change the expectations citizens have of the role government should play in their lives?

This event is based on a recent article in The World Today by Hans Kundnani and Pepijn Bergsen who are both researchers in Chatham House's Europe Programme. 'Crawling from the Wreckage' is the first in a series of articles that look at key themes in European political discourse from the last century. You can read the article here

This event is open to Chatham House Members. Not a member? Find out more.




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Webinar: Assessing the Twists and Turns in the US-Iran Stalemate

Research Event

28 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, Founder and Publisher, Bourse & Bazaar
Nasser Hadian, Professor of Political Sciences, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences, University of Tehran
Azadeh Zamirirad, Deputy Head, Middle East and Africa Division, SWP Berlin
Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, US German Marshall Fund; Adjunct Senior Research Scholar, SIPA
Moderator: Sanam Vakil, Deputy Head and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
The webinar will be livestreamed on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Since the start of 2020, Iran has been beset with multiple challenges including the spread of COVID-19, economic pressure from US sanctions, parliamentary elections in February, the killing of Qassem Soleimani and an increase in tensions in Iraq. The Trump administration interprets these domestic and regional challenges faces by Iran as evidence that its maximum pressure campaign is proving to be effective.

In this webinar, speakers will examine the economic and political impact of the Trump administration's policy towards Iran. Panelists will consider how these events are impacting internal dynamics in Iran and examine the economic impact of sanctions. They will also evaluate European diplomatic efforts to preserve the Iran nuclear agreement, and consider the future trajectory of US Iran policy and the potential for escalation in the region.
 
This webinar is part of the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme's Online Event Series. The event will be held on the record.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Webinar: Coronavirus Crisis – Implications for an Evolving Cybersecurity Landscape

Corporate Members Event Webinar

7 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Neil Walsh, Chief, Cybercrime and Anti-Money Laundering Department, UN Office of Drugs and Crime

Lisa Quest, Head, Public Sector, UK & Ireland, Oliver Wyman

Chair: Joyce Hakmeh, Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme; Co-Editor, Journal of Cyber Policy, Chatham House

Further speakers to be announced.

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on the cybersecurity landscape - both amplifying already-existing cyber threats and creating new vulnerabilities for state and non-state actors. The crisis has highlighted the importance of protecting key national and international infrastructures, with the World Health Organization, US Department of Health and Human Services and hospitals across Europe suffering cyber-attacks, undermining their ability to tackle the coronavirus outbreak. Changing patterns of work resulting from widespread lockdowns are also creating new vulnerabilities for organizations with many employees now working from home and using personal devices to work remotely.

In light of these developments, the panellists will discuss the evolving cyber threats resulting from the pandemic. How are they impacting ongoing conversations around cybersecurity? How can governments, private sector and civil society organizations work together to effectively mitigate and respond to them? And what could the implications of such cooperation be beyond the crisis? 

This event is part of a fortnightly series of 'Business in Focus' webinars reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on areas of particular professional interest for our corporate members and giving circles.

Not a corporate member? Find out more.




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The US Role in Shaping World Trade

Webinar Research Event

21 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
Add to Calendar

Clete Willems, Partner, Akin Gump; Deputy Director, US National Economic Council, 2018 - 19
Chair: Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Senior Research Fellow, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House

This event is  part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum and will take place virtually only.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc, and EY for their generous support of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.

Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST. 




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A Transatlantic Partnership for WTO Reform in the Age of Coronavirus

Webinar Research Event

28 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

Ignacio Garcia Bercero, Director, Directorate General for Trade of the European Commission; European Union Visiting Fellow, Oxford University
Jennifer Hillman, Senior Fellow for Trade and International Political Economy, Council on Foreign Relations; Member, WTO Appellate Body, 2007 - 11
Chair: Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, Senior Research Fellow, US and Americas Programme, Chatham House

Global trade and the WTO – which has been at the heart of the rules-based international trade system since its creation in 1995 – faced a critical moment even before COVID-19. The Appellate Body’s demise in December 2019 led to a renewed focus on the future of the WTO. But the challenges facing the WTO run deeper than that – the organization has lost relevance as a negotiation forum, resulting in the global trade rules not having kept pace with changes in technology and the rise of China. While the WTO provides a forum for international cooperation to address the trade fallout from COVID-19, what implications will the pandemic have for the long-term reform of the global trade system?

Both the US and EU have proposed various WTO reform strategies and taken steps towards collaboration, but is a transatlantic partnership for WTO reform feasible? Do the US and EU believe that a rules-based international trade system is in their interest – especially in light of COVID-19? What are the biggest issues dividing the US and EU on reforming the WTO, and is there a common assessment of the key problems? What steps can the US and EU take to address the dispute settlement function of the WTO and to modernize the trade rules? Are there broader issues, such as environmental and social sustainability, that should be included in a transatlantic agenda for WTO reform?

This event is  part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum and will take place virtually only.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc, and EY for their generous support of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.




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Reimagining Trade Rules to Address Climate Change in a Post-Pandemic World

Webinar Research Event

5 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

James Bacchus, Distinguished University Professor of Global Affairs and Director of the Center for Global Economic and Environmental Opportunity at the University of Central Florida; Member and Chair, WTO Appellate Body, 1995 - 2003
Chair: Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

This event is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum and will take place virtually only.

International trade has a crucial role to play in tackling climate change. The production and transport of goods is a major contributor to green-house gas emissions, as is the delivery of certain cross-border services. At the same time, it looks inevitable that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a radical re-think of global supply chains as companies and governments seek to build in greater resilience while at the same time preserving as far as possible the efficiency gains and lower costs that global supply chains generate when operating normally.

Future international trade rules will have a crucial role to play in addressing both challenges; they represent both an opportunity and a risk. If designed well, they could play a very important role in re-enforcing moves towards a more sustainable use of resources, greater overall alignment of economies with the Paris Agreement, and greater economic resilience. But they could also, if poorly designed and implemented, or overly influenced by strategic political considerations, have significant unintended and negative implications. These include: reduced economic efficiency, increased poverty, unnecessary economic decoupling and reduced consensus on the broader mitigation and adaptation measures required to meet the challenge of climate change.

Against this background, a number of key questions arise: In what areas, if any, do we need to modify or adapt key principles underlying the system of global trade rules in order to respond to the twin challenges of responding to climate change and building greater economic resilience?  Which are the most promising/practical areas on which trade policy experts should focus now to re-launch/re-energize discussions on WTO reform, including, for example, dispute settlement? What national economic policies will be needed to complement the development of new/reformed trade disciplines in these areas? How might future political changes, such as a change in the US administration, affect the prospects for and political momentum behind such deliberations? What in any eventuality is the best way to build the required political momentum?
 
This roundtable is convened by the Global Economy and Finance Programme and the US and the Americas Programme and it is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. The event will take place virtually only.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank founding partner AIG and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo plc, and EY for their generous support of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum.

Please note this event is taking place between 2pm to 3pm BST.




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Webinar: Director's Briefing – Democracy in the Americas

Corporate Members Event Webinar Partners and Major Corporates

30 April 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Online

Event participants

Luis Almagro, Secretary General, Organization of American States (OAS); Foreign Minister, Uruguay (2010-15)
Respondent: Dr Elena Lazarou, Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House
Respondent: Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Dr Robin Niblett, Director and Chief Executive, Chatham House

As governments in the Americas grapple with the economic and health emergencies posed by COVID-19, the region continues to face socioeconomic and political challenges reflected in the protests that erupted in many countries in 2019. According to an annual survey by Latinóbarometro, of 18 countries across Latin America, trust in government dropped from 45 per cent in 2009 to 22 per cent in 2018, and those expressing dissatisfaction with democracy has increased from 51 per cent to 71 per cent. 

Recently re-elected to a new term, Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States, will reflect on the state of democracy in the Americas. What are the greatest threats and opportunities to democratic governance and political participation in the region? How can multilateral organizations and states defend democratic institutions and human rights in a changing global environment? To what extent might the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic provide leaders with an opportunity to undemocratically consolidate power? Or, conversely, might the crisis spark a new understanding of the social contract between states and governed and greater consensus around national policies and leadership?  

This event is only open to Major Corporate Member and Partner organizations and selected giving circles of Chatham House. If you'd like to attend, please RSVP to lbedford@chathamhouse.org.




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Webinar: Make or Break: China and the Geopolitical Impacts of COVID-19

Research Event

28 April 2020 - 12:00pm to 12:45pm

Event participants

Yu Jie, Senior Research Fellow on China, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Kerry Brown, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House; Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of Lau China Institute, King’s College London

The COVID-19 crisis has accelerated geopolitical tensions that, in part, have arisen from US-China tensions. At a time when the world needs strong and collective leadership to fight the coronavirus, both countries have been locked in a battle of words characterized by escalating hostility, polarizing narratives, blame and misinformation. Caught in the crossfire, many people of Chinese descent across differing countries have reported an increase in xenophobic attacks.

Middle powers such as the UK and Australia have swerved between recognition of the global collaboration needed to solve this pandemic and calls for China to be held ‘accountable’ for its initial response. Others such, as France and Japan, have been trying to foster international cooperation. 

Against this context, speakers will discuss China’s response to the crisis, including the initial delay and Beijing’s later containment strategies. How do we best assess the delay amidst all the heated rhetoric? What was the response of people within China to the measures? Does COVID-19 mark a point of no return for US-China relations? How might this impact on relations between US allies and China? And what kind of China will emerge from this current crisis?

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761




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Webinar: Will COVID-19 Mark the Endgame for Iraq's Muhasasa Ta'ifia?

Research Event

30 April 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm

Event participants

Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Investment Officer, Asia Frontier Capital Iraq Fund; Adjunct Assistant Professor, American University of Iraq Sulaimani
Moderator: Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Control of oil rents underpins Iraq’s post-2003 political order. This political order, known as Muhasasa Ta’ifia (ethno-sectarian apportionment), features an elite bargain inclusive of all major ethnic and sect-based political groups. It has enabled the state's continuity and apparent stability through multiple crises, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 oil crisis, and the war with ISIS.

In a recent article, Ahmed Tabaqchali examines how the crash in oil rents, brought about by COVID-19’s disruption of the world economy, exposes the structural inconsistencies and inherent contradictions of the Muhasasa Tai’fia system. The article argues that the current Iraqi political elite is ill-equipped to resolve the multi-faceted challenge facing the country because of its increasing fragmentation and the erosion of its legitimacy, advanced institutional decay and fundamentally different oil dynamics.

In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, the article’s author will discuss the deficiencies of the Muhasasa Ta’ifia system and will offer his insight into the future of this governance model in the context of a worsening economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and existing demographic pressures.
 
You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.
 

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Webinar: Weekly COVID-19 Pandemic Briefing – The Geopolitics of the Coronavirus

Members Event Webinar

6 May 2020 - 10:00am to 10:45am

Online

Event participants

Professor Ilona Kickbusch, Associate Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Founding Director and Chair, Global Health Centre, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies 
Professor David Heymann CBE, Distinguished Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House; Executive Director, Communicable Diseases Cluster, World Health Organization (1998-03)
Chair: Emma Ross, Senior Consulting Fellow, Global Health Programme, Chatham House

The coronavirus pandemic continues to claim lives around the world. As countries grapple with how best to tackle the virus and the reverberations the pandemic is sending through their societies and economies, scientific understanding of how the coronavirus is behaving, and what measures might best combat it, continues to advance.

Join us for the seventh in a weekly series of interactive webinars on the coronavirus with Professor David Heymann and special guest Professor Ilona Kickbusch helping us to understand the facts and make sense of the latest developments in the global crisis.

What will the geopolitics of the pandemic mean for multilateralism? As the US retreats, what dynamics are emerging around other actors and what are the implications for the World Health Organization? Is the EU stepping up to play a bigger role in global health? Will the pandemic galvanize the global cooperation long called for?

Professor Heymann is a world-leading authority on infectious disease outbreaks. He led the World Health Organization’s response to SARS and has been advising the organization on its response to the coronavirus. 

Professor Kickbusch is one of the world’s leading experts in global health diplomacy and governance. She advises international organizations, national governments, NGOs and the private sector on new directions and innovations in global health, governance for health and health promotion.




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Lebanese Women and the Politics of Disruption

Research Event

6 May 2020 - 1:00pm to 2:00pm

Event participants

Carmen Geha, Assistant Professor of Public Administration, Leadership and Organisational Development, American University of Beirut
Moderator: Lina Khatib, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Lebanese women have been at the forefront of the protest movement that has shaken Lebanon since October 2019. The active participation by women and their visibility in Lebanon's protest movement has challenged the gender norms prevalent in Lebanese society and politics. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the nationwide lockdown that ensued has disrupted women's ability to organize, and is threatening the fragile progress towards female inclusion in the political process.
 
In a recent article, Carmen Geha discussed the politics of representation in the context of women's participation in public life in Lebanon and argued that the country's political system is maintained through tightly-knit informal power relations among sectarian politicians, making women's participation in politics virtually impossible. The article explained how the October 2019 revolution challenged that norm by creating inclusive spaces where women activists could confront politicians and thus, transform the way women participate in politics and public life.
 
In this webinar, part of the Chatham House project on the future of the state in the Middle East and North Africa, the article's author will discuss how women's activism in Lebanon has been affected by the coronavirus-induced lockdown. The speaker will consider how, under current circumstances, women activists can speak up collectively and bring back a movement to contest gender norms in order to build an alternative political model that can better represent women's priorities.
 
You can express your interest in attending by following this link. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on the MENA Programme Facebook page.

Reni Zhelyazkova

Programme Coordinator, Middle East and North Africa Programme
+44 (0)20 7314 3624




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Virtual Roundtable: Where in the World Are We Headed?

Research Event

12 May 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:00pm
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Ambassador Wendy R. Sherman, Director, Center for Public Leadership, Harvard Kennedy School; US Under Secretary of State for Political  Affairs, 2011 – 2015.
Lord Kim Darroch, Crossbench Life Peer, House of Lords; British Ambassador to the US, 2016 – 19
Chair: Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Director, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House
The outbreak of COVID-19 has disrupted world affairs at a time when US global leadership was already a cause of grave concern for many longstanding US partners.  While the US and China have recently signed the first phase of a trade agreement, the pandemic is leading to heightened tension between these two major powers.  Domestically, the virus has upended the health and economic security of many Americans during a crucial election year, and also raised genuine concern about the ability to hold a free and fair election. How will the US government navigate this unprecedented crisis and what does this mean for the future of US leadership? 
 
This event is part of the US and Americas Programme Inaugural Virtual Roundtable Series on the US and the State of the World and will take place virtually only. 

US and Americas Programme

Department/project




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Webinar: Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for African Elections and Democracy

Research Event

6 May 2020 - 2:30pm to 3:30pm

Event participants

Dr Christopher Fomunyoh, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Central and West Africa, National Democratic Institute (NDI)
Chair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Director, Africa Programme, Chatham House
2020 was anticipated to be a year of landmark elections across Africa, including general elections scheduled in Somalia and Ethiopia – countries at critical junctures in their transitions to electoral democracy – as well as a re-run of annulled presidential elections in Malawi.
 
The COVID-19 pandemic has created new challenges for African countries seeking to hold elections or further democratization – including the practicalities of adapting containment measures to electoral processes in the context of strained financial and logistical resources. It may also be used as a pretext for the pursuit of repressive legislation and constitutional amendments to preclude elections or bolster authoritarianism, compounded by new constraints on accountability mechanisms such as election observation missions.
 
At this event, Dr Christopher Fomunyoh discusses the likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on elections and democracy in various African countries, as well as responses and measures to meet the multifaceted challenges posed.

Hanna Desta

Programme Assistant, Africa Programme




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Webinar: COVID-19 and the Impact on Latin American Migration

Research Event

14 May 2020 - 3:00pm to 4:00pm
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Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan, Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House; Mexican Ambassador to the US, 2007 - 13
Professor Anita Isaacs, Benjamin R. Collins Professor of Social Sciences, Haverford College
Chair: Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

The US government recently announced restrictions on immigration, stating the new measures were necessary due to COVID-19 and the effect the pandemic has had on the US economy. But what is the role of immigrants in the essential official and unofficial services in the COVID-19 stay-at-home era? How is COVID-19 affecting immigration from Central America and Mexico? 

Separately, there have also been instances of outbreaks among detainees in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement centers and claims that immigrants who are returning to Guatemala are spreading the virus. How have US immigration policies affected infection rates in Central America and Mexico and among its citizens?

Arturo Sarukhan, Mexican Ambassador to the US from 2007 - 13, and Anita Isaacs, Benjamin R. Collins Professor of Social Sciences, Haverford College, will join us to discuss the impact COVID-19 is having on migrants.

Chatham House would like to thank BTG Pactual, Cairn Energy plc, Diageo plc, Equinor, Fresnillo Management Services, HSBC Holdings plc and Wintershall Dea for their generous support of the Latin America Initiative.

This event is scheduled to take place from 15:00 – 16:00 BST.

US and Americas Programme




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Virtual Roundtable: Evaluating Outcomes in Fragile Contexts: Adapting Research Methods in the Time of COVID-19

Invitation Only Research Event

5 May 2020 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm

Event participants

Rebecca Wolfe, Lecturer, Harris School for Public Policy and Associate, Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Global Conflicts, University of Chicago
Tom Gillhespy, Principal Consultant, Itad
Shodmon Hojibekov, Chief Executive Officer, Aga Khan Agency for Habitat (Afghanistan)
Chair: Champa Patel, Director, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House

This virtual roundtable has been co-convened by Chatham House and the Aga Khan Foundation.  

While conducting research in fragile and conflict-affected contexts has always presented challenges, the outbreak of COVID-19 creates additional challenges including travel restrictions, ethical challenges, and disruptions to usual modes of working. This virtual roundtable will explore how organizations can adapt their research and monitoring and evaluation models in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This event aims to discuss the research methods being used to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis; the important role of technology; and ways to engage policy and decision-makers during this time.

 

Event attributes

Chatham House Rule

Lucy Ridout

Programme Administrator, Asia-Pacific Programme
+44 (0) 207 314 2761