People learn to discriminate between classes without explicit exposure to negative examples. On the contrary, traditional machine learning algorithms often rely on negative examples, otherwise the model would be prone to collapse and always-true predictions. Therefore, it is crucial to design the learning objective which leads the model to converge and to perform predictions unbiasedly without explicit negative signals. In this paper, we propose a Collectively loss function to learn from only Positive and Unlabeled data (cPU). We theoretically elicit the loss function from the setting of PU learning. We perform intensive experiments on the benchmark and real-world datasets. The results show that cPU consistently outperforms the current state-of-the-art PU learning methods.

Hyperbolic balance laws with uncertain (random) parameters and inputs are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Quantification of uncertainty in predictions derived from such laws, and reduction of predictive uncertainty via data assimilation, remain an open challenge. That is due to nonlinearity of governing equations, whose solutions are highly non-Gaussian and often discontinuous. To ameliorate these issues in a computationally efficient way, we use the method of distributions, which here takes the form of a deterministic equation for spatiotemporal evolution of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the random system state, as a means of forward uncertainty propagation. Uncertainty reduction is achieved by recasting the standard loss function, i.e., discrepancy between observations and model predictions, in distributional terms. This step exploits the equivalence between minimization of the square error discrepancy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The loss function is regularized by adding a Lagrangian constraint enforcing fulfillment of the CDF equation. Minimization is performed sequentially, progressively updating the parameters of the CDF equation as more measurements are assimilated.

The large volumes of Sentinel-1 data produced over Europe are being used to develop pan-national ground motion services. However, simple analysis techniques like thresholding cannot detect and classify complex deformation signals reliably making providing usable information to a broad range of non-expert stakeholders a challenge. Here we explore the applicability of deep learning approaches by adapting a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect deformation in a national-scale velocity field. For our proof-of-concept, we focus on the UK where previously identified deformation is associated with coal-mining, ground water withdrawal, landslides and tunnelling. The sparsity of measurement points and the presence of spike noise make this a challenging application for deep learning networks, which involve calculations of the spatial convolution between images. Moreover, insufficient ground truth data exists to construct a balanced training data set, and the deformation signals are slower and more localised than in previous applications. We propose three enhancement methods to tackle these problems: i) spatial interpolation with modified matrix completion, ii) a synthetic training dataset based on the characteristics of real UK velocity map, and iii) enhanced over-wrapping techniques. Using velocity maps spanning 2015-2019, our framework detects several areas of coal mining subsidence, uplift due to dewatering, slate quarries, landslides and tunnel engineering works. The results demonstrate the potential applicability of the proposed framework to the development of automated ground motion analysis systems.

Online multiple kernel learning (OMKL) has provided an attractive performance in nonlinear function learning tasks. Leveraging a random feature approximation, the major drawback of OMKL, known as the curse of dimensionality, has been recently alleviated. In this paper, we introduce a new research problem, termed (stream-based) active multiple kernel learning (AMKL), in which a learner is allowed to label selected data from an oracle according to a selection criterion. This is necessary in many real-world applications as acquiring true labels is costly or time-consuming. We prove that AMKL achieves an optimal sublinear regret, implying that the proposed selection criterion indeed avoids unuseful label-requests. Furthermore, we propose AMKL with an adaptive kernel selection (AMKL-AKS) in which irrelevant kernels can be excluded from a kernel dictionary 'on the fly'. This approach can improve the efficiency of active learning as well as the accuracy of a function approximation. Via numerical tests with various real datasets, it is demonstrated that AMKL-AKS yields a similar or better performance than the best-known OMKL, with a smaller number of labeled data.

The History of Pre-Modern Medicine seminar series returns this month. The 2017–18 series – organised by a group of historians of medicine based at London universities and hosted by the Wellcome Library – will conclude with four seminars. The series… Continue reading

Ammunition Depot comments on Judge Roger T. Benitez ruling that Californians may again purchase ammo without a background check and order ammo online.

(PRWeb April 24, 2020)

Read the full story at https://www.prweb.com/releases/gun_rights_california_gun_owners_ammo_dealers_fire_back_against_proposition_63/prweb17075447.htm

Aryeh Kontorovich, Iosif Pinelis.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 5, 2822--2854.

Abstract:
We provide an exact nonasymptotic lower bound on the minimax expected excess risk (EER) in the agnostic probably-approximately-correct (PAC) machine learning classification model and identify minimax learning algorithms as certain maximally symmetric and minimally randomized “voting” procedures. Based on this result, an exact asymptotic lower bound on the minimax EER is provided. This bound is of the simple form $c_{infty}/sqrt{ u}$ as $ u oinfty$, where $c_{infty}=0.16997dots$ is a universal constant, $ u=m/d$, $m$ is the size of the training sample and $d$ is the Vapnik–Chervonenkis dimension of the hypothesis class. It is shown that the differences between these asymptotic and nonasymptotic bounds, as well as the differences between these two bounds and the maximum EER of any learning algorithms that minimize the empirical risk, are asymptotically negligible, and all these differences are due to ties in the mentioned “voting” procedures. A few easy to compute nonasymptotic lower bounds on the minimax EER are also obtained, which are shown to be close to the exact asymptotic lower bound $c_{infty}/sqrt{ u}$ even for rather small values of the ratio $ u=m/d$. As an application of these results, we substantially improve existing lower bounds on the tail probability of the excess risk. Among the tools used are Bayes estimation and apparently new identities and inequalities for binomial distributions.

Benedikt Bauer, Michael Kohler.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 4, 2261--2285.

Abstract:
Assuming that a smoothness condition and a suitable restriction on the structure of the regression function hold, it is shown that least squares estimates based on multilayer feedforward neural networks are able to circumvent the curse of dimensionality in nonparametric regression. The proof is based on new approximation results concerning multilayer feedforward neural networks with bounded weights and a bounded number of hidden neurons. The estimates are compared with various other approaches by using simulated data.

How an organization controls its actions. Governance describes the mechanisms an organization uses to ensure that its constituents follow its established processes and policies. It is the primary means of maintaining oversight and accountability in a loosely coupled organizational structure. A proper governance strategy implements systems to monitor and record what is going on, takes steps to ensure compliance with agreed policies, and provides for corrective action in cases where the rules have been ignored or misconstrued.

Alex Diana, Eleni Matechou, Jim Griffin, Alison Johnston.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 473--493.

Abstract:
Environmental changes in recent years have been linked to phenological shifts which in turn are linked to the survival of species. The work in this paper is motivated by capture-recapture data on blackcaps collected by the British Trust for Ornithology as part of the Constant Effort Sites monitoring scheme. Blackcaps overwinter abroad and migrate to the UK annually for breeding purposes. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach for expressing the bivariate density of individual arrival and departure times at different sites across a number of years as a mixture model. The new model combines the ideas of the hierarchical and the dependent Dirichlet process, allowing the estimation of site-specific weights and year-specific mixture locations, which are modelled as functions of environmental covariates using a multivariate extension of the Gaussian process. The proposed modelling framework is extremely general and can be used in any context where multivariate density estimation is performed jointly across different groups and in the presence of a continuous covariate.

Medha Uppala, Mark S. Handcock.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 339--356.

Abstract:
This paper focuses on spatial and temporal modeling of point processes on linear networks. Point processes on linear networks can simply be defined as point events occurring on or near line segment network structures embedded in a certain space. A separable modeling framework is introduced that posits separate formation and dissolution models of point processes on linear networks over time. While the model was inspired by spider web building activity in brick mortar lines, the focus is on modeling wildfire ignition origins near road networks over a span of 14 years. As most wildfires in California have human-related origins, modeling the origin locations with respect to the road network provides insight into how human, vehicular and structural densities affect ignition occurrence. Model results show that roads that traverse different types of regions such as residential, interface and wildland regions have higher ignition intensities compared to roads that only exist in each of the mentioned region types.

Seth Flaxman, Michael Chirico, Pau Pereira, Charles Loeffler.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2564--2585.

Abstract:
We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method which we developed for the National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ) Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge (National Institute of Justice (2017)). Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable randomized Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) methods for approximating Gaussian processes with autoregressive smoothing kernels in a regularized supervised learning framework. While the smoothing kernels capture the two main approaches in current use in the field of crime forecasting, kernel density estimation (KDE) and self-exciting point process (SEPP) models, the RKHS component of the model can be understood as an approximation to the popular log-Gaussian Cox Process model. For inference, we discretize the spatiotemporal point pattern and learn a log-intensity function using the Poisson likelihood and highly efficient gradient-based optimization methods. Model hyperparameters including quality of RKHS approximation, spatial and temporal kernel lengthscales, number of autoregressive lags and bandwidths for smoothing kernels as well as cell shape, size and rotation, were learned using cross validation. Resulting predictions significantly exceeded baseline KDE estimates and SEPP models for sparse events.

Kun Liang.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2452--2482.

Abstract:
Finding differentially expressed genes is a common task in high-throughput transcriptome studies. While traditional statistical methods rank the genes by their test statistics alone, we analyze an RNA sequencing dataset using the auxiliary information of gene length and the test statistics from a related microarray study. Given the auxiliary information, we propose a novel nonparametric empirical Bayes procedure to estimate the posterior probability of differential expression for each gene. We demonstrate the advantage of our procedure in extensive simulation studies and a psoriasis RNA sequencing study. The companion R package calm is available at Bioconductor.

Yiyi Liu, Joshua L. Warren, Hongyu Zhao.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1733--1752.

Abstract:
Understanding the heterogeneity of cells is an important biological question. The development of single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) technology provides high resolution data for such inquiry. A key challenge in scRNA-seq analysis is the high variability of measured RNA expression levels and frequent dropouts (missing values) due to limited input RNA compared to bulk RNA-seq measurement. Existing clustering methods do not perform well for these noisy and zero-inflated scRNA-seq data. In this manuscript we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model, called BasClu, to appropriately characterize important features of scRNA-seq data in order to more accurately cluster cells. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with extensive simulation studies and applications to three real scRNA-seq datasets.

Gaoxiang Jia, Xinlei Wang, Qiwei Li, Wei Lu, Ximing Tang, Ignacio Wistuba, Yang Xie.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1617--1647.

Abstract:
Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples have great potential for biomarker discovery, retrospective studies and diagnosis or prognosis of diseases. Their application, however, is hindered by the unsatisfactory performance of traditional gene expression profiling techniques on damaged RNAs. NanoString nCounter platform is well suited for profiling of FFPE samples and measures gene expression with high sensitivity which may greatly facilitate realization of scientific and clinical values of FFPE samples. However, methodological development for normalization, a critical step when analyzing this type of data, is far behind. Existing methods designed for the platform use information from different types of internal controls separately and rely on an overly-simplified assumption that expression of housekeeping genes is constant across samples for global scaling. Thus, these methods are not optimized for the nCounter system, not mentioning that they were not developed for FFPE samples. We construct an integrated system of random-coefficient hierarchical regression models to capture main patterns and characteristics observed from NanoString data of FFPE samples and develop a Bayesian approach to estimate parameters and normalize gene expression across samples. Our method, labeled RCRnorm, incorporates information from all aspects of the experimental design and simultaneously removes biases from various sources. It eliminates the unrealistic assumption on housekeeping genes and offers great interpretability. Furthermore, it is applicable to freshly frozen or like samples that can be generally viewed as a reduced case of FFPE samples. Simulation and applications showed the superior performance of RCRnorm.

Galatia Cleanthous, Athanasios G. Georgiadis, Gerard Kerkyacharian, Pencho Petrushev, Dominique Picard.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 1832--1862.

Abstract:
We consider the problem of estimating the density of observations taking values in classical or nonclassical spaces such as manifolds and more general metric spaces. Our setting is quite general but also sufficiently rich in allowing the development of smooth functional calculus with well localized spectral kernels, Besov regularity spaces, and wavelet type systems. Kernel and both linear and nonlinear wavelet density estimators are introduced and studied. Convergence rates for these estimators are established and discussed.

Ivan Nourdin, Giovanni Peccati, Stéphane Seuret.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 1619--1634.

Abstract:
We describe the size of the sets of sojourn times $E_{gamma }={tgeq 0:|B_{t}|leq t^{gamma }}$ associated with a fractional Brownian motion $B$ in terms of various large scale dimensions.

Amir Najafi, Seyed Abolfazl Motahari, Hamid R. Rabiee.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 2, 1535--1559.

Abstract:
A Bernoulli Mixture Model (BMM) is a finite mixture of random binary vectors with independent dimensions. The problem of clustering BMM data arises in a variety of real-world applications, ranging from population genetics to activity analysis in social networks. In this paper, we analyze the clusterability of BMMs from a theoretical perspective, when the number of clusters is unknown. In particular, we stipulate a set of conditions on the sample complexity and dimension of the model in order to guarantee the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC)-clusterability of a dataset. To the best of our knowledge, these findings are the first non-asymptotic bounds on the sample complexity of learning or clustering BMMs.

Moore, Amy, 1908-2005 -- Family.

Siekmann, Francis Heinrich Ernst, 1830-1917.

Hewish Henry -- Family.

Gambling (Family)

Traeger, Ernst Wilhelm, 1805-1874.