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Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

729 
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   6(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  10(16)   9(25)   6(31)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   3(23)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   6( 6)  25(31)  14(45)  21(66)   3(69)   1(70)
GUANAJA        50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)  10(22)   2(24)   1(25)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

Publicado en 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

986 
WTCA44 KNHC 141149
TASAT4

BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Diecinueve Advertencia Intermedia Número 3A
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL192024
700 AM EST jueves 14 de noviembre de 2024

...SE ESPERAN INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA EN
HONDURAS HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA...


RESUMEN DE 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN...15.9N 82.2W
ALREDEDOR DE 250 MI...400 KM E DE ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ALREDEDOR DE 90 MI...150 KM AL NE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA
FRONTERA DE NIC/HON
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 265 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS VIVOS:

Una Vigilancia de Huracán está vigente para...
* Punta Castilla, a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Punta Sal a la Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua
* Las Islas de la Bahía de Honduras

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está vigente para...
* Frontera de Honduras/Nicaragua a Puerto Cabezas

Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles condiciones de
huracán dentro del área de vigilancia. Se suele emitir una
vigilancia 48 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia de vientos con
fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que dificultan o hacen los
preparativos al aire libre al exterior.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso dentro
de las 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que las condiciones de
tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área de vigilancia,
generalmente dentro de las 48 horas.

Los intereses en otros lugares de Honduras, Guatemala, Belice y la
Península de Yucatán deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.

Para información de tormentas específica de su área, monitoree los
productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico nacional.


DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Diecinueve se localizó cerca de la latitud de 15.9 Norte, longitud
82.2 Oeste. La depresión se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 15
mph (24 km/h). Este movimiento debe continuar hasta hoy, llevando el
sistema a través del Mar Caribe occidental. Se espera que la
depresión se detenga y serpentee cerca de la costa norte de Honduras
hasta el viernes y hasta el fin de semana.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento en las
próximas 48 horas. Se pronostica que la depresión se convertirá en
tormenta tropical más tarde hoy y continuará fortaleciéndose si
permanece sobre el agua.

La presión central mínima estimada es de 1004 mb (29.65 pulgadas).


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para la depresión tropical diecinueve se pueden
encontrar en el
Ciclón Tropical Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT4 y el
encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

LLUVIA: Hasta principios de la próxima semana, se esperan cantidades
de lluvia de 10 a 20 pulgadas con totales de tormenta aisladas
alrededor de 30 pulgadas sobre el norte de Honduras.Esta lluvia
provocará inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra que
amenazarán la vida y potencialmente catastróficas, especialmente a
lo largo de la Sierra La Esperanza y cerca de ella.

En otras partes del resto de Honduras, Belice, El Salvador, el este
de Guatemala y el oeste de Nicaragua, se espera que la Depresión
Tropical de Diecinueve produzca de 5 a 10 pulgadas de lluvia con
totales localizados alrededor de 15 pulgadas hasta principios de la
próxima semana. Esto resultará en áreas de inundaciones repentinas,
tal vez significativas, junto con el potencial de deslizamientos de
tierra.

Para obtener una descripción completa del pronóstico de lluvia
asociado a la Depresión Tropical Diecinueve, consulte el Gráfico de
Lluvia Total de Tormentas del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,
disponible en
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

VIENTO: Son posibles condiciones de huracán dentro del área de
vigilancia para el viernes. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta
tropical en el área de aviso y es posible que se produzca en el área
de vigilancia a partir de hoy.

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles
de agua hasta entre 1 y 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea
normales a lo largo de la costa inmediata en áreas de vientos
terrestres a lo largo de la costa norte de Honduras. Cerca de la
costa, la marejada estará acompañada de olas grandes y destructivas.


PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 AM EST.

$$
Pronosticador Kelly


*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

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