Jose Ameijeiras-Alonso, Akli Benali, Rosa M. Crujeiras, Alberto Rodríguez-Casal, José M. C. Pereira.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2120--2139.

Abstract:
Understanding the role of vegetation fires in the Earth system is an important environmental problem. Although fire occurrence is influenced by natural factors, human activity related to land use and management has altered the temporal patterns of fire in several regions of the world. Hence, for a better insight into fires regimes it is of special interest to analyze where human activity has altered fire seasonality. For doing so, multimodality tests are a useful tool for determining the number of annual fire peaks. The periodicity of fires and their complex distributional features motivate the use of nonparametric circular statistics. The unsatisfactory performance of previous circular nonparametric proposals for testing multimodality justifies the introduction of a new approach, considering an adapted version of the excess mass statistic, jointly with a bootstrap calibration algorithm. A systematic application of the test on the Russia–Kazakhstan area is presented in order to determine how many fire peaks can be identified in this region. A False Discovery Rate correction, accounting for the spatial dependence of the data, is also required.

Arkaprava Roy, Subhashis Ghosal, Jeffrey Prescott, Kingshuk Roy Choudhury.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1791--1816.

Abstract:
We study possible relations between Alzheimer’s disease progression and the structure of the connectome which is white matter connecting different regions of the brain. Regression models in covariates including age, gender and disease status for the extent of white matter connecting each pair of regions of the brain are proposed. Subject inhomogeneity is also incorporated in the model through random effects with an unknown distribution. As there is a large number of pairs of regions, we also adopt a dimension reduction technique through graphon ( J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 96 (2006) 933–957) functions which reduces the functions of pairs of regions to functions of regions. The connecting graphon functions are considered unknown but the assumed smoothness allows putting priors of low complexity on these functions. We pursue a nonparametric Bayesian approach by assigning a Dirichlet process scale mixture of zero to mean normal prior on the distributions of the random effects and finite random series of tensor products of B-splines priors on the underlying graphon functions. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for drawing samples for the posterior distributions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The proposed Bayesian method overwhelmingly outperforms a competing method based on ANCOVA models in the simulation setup. The proposed Bayesian approach is applied on a dataset of 100 subjects and 83 brain regions and key regions implicated in the changing connectome are identified.

Ying Chen, J. S. Marron, Jiejie Zhang.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1590--1616.

Abstract:
Electricity prices are high dimensional, serially dependent and have seasonal variations. We propose a Warping Functional AutoRegressive (WFAR) model that simultaneously accounts for the cross time-dependence and seasonal variations of the large dimensional data. In particular, electricity price curves are obtained by smoothing over the $24$ discrete hourly prices on each day. In the functional domain, seasonal phase variations are separated from level amplitude changes in a warping process with the Fisher–Rao distance metric, and the aligned (season-adjusted) electricity price curves are modeled in the functional autoregression framework. In a real application, the WFAR model provides superior out-of-sample forecast accuracy in both a normal functioning market, Nord Pool, and an extreme situation, the California market. The forecast performance as well as the relative accuracy improvement are stable for different markets and different time periods.

Abhirup Datta, Sudipto Banerjee, James S. Hodges, Leiwen Gao.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 4, 1221--1244.

Abstract:
Hierarchical models for regionally aggregated disease incidence data commonly involve region specific latent random effects that are modeled jointly as having a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The covariance or precision matrix incorporates the spatial dependence between the regions. Common choices for the precision matrix include the widely used ICAR model, which is singular, and its nonsingular extension which lacks interpretability. We propose a new parametric model for the precision matrix based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) representation of the spatial dependence. Our model guarantees positive definiteness and, hence, in addition to being a valid prior for regional spatially correlated random effects, can also directly model the outcome from dependent data like images and networks. Theoretical results establish a link between the parameters in our model and the variance and covariances of the random effects. Simulation studies demonstrate that the improved interpretability of our model reaps benefits in terms of accurately recovering the latent spatial random effects as well as for inference on the spatial covariance parameters. Under modest spatial correlation, our model far outperforms the CAR models, while the performances are similar when the spatial correlation is strong. We also assess sensitivity to the choice of the ordering in the DAG construction using theoretical and empirical results which testify to the robustness of our model. We also present a large-scale public health application demonstrating the competitive performance of the model.

Peter J. Diggle, Emanuele Giorgi, Julienne Atsame, Sylvie Ntsame Ella, Kisito Ogoussan, Katherine Gass.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 35, Number 1, 42--50.

Abstract:
Vector-borne diseases have long presented major challenges to the health of rural communities in the wet tropical regions of the world, but especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we describe the contribution that statistical modelling has made to the global elimination programme for one vector-borne disease, onchocerciasis. We explain why information on the spatial distribution of a second vector-borne disease, Loa loa, is needed before communities at high risk of onchocerciasis can be treated safely with mass distribution of ivermectin, an antifiarial medication. We show how a model-based geostatistical analysis of Loa loa prevalence survey data can be used to map the predictive probability that each location in the region of interest meets a WHO policy guideline for safe mass distribution of ivermectin and describe two applications: one is to data from Cameroon that assesses prevalence using traditional blood-smear microscopy; the other is to Africa-wide data that uses a low-cost questionnaire-based method. We describe how a recent technological development in image-based microscopy has resulted in a change of emphasis from prevalence alone to the bivariate spatial distribution of prevalence and the intensity of infection among infected individuals. We discuss how statistical modelling of the kind described here can contribute to health policy guidelines and decision-making in two ways. One is to ensure that, in a resource-limited setting, prevalence surveys are designed, and the resulting data analysed, as efficiently as possible. The other is to provide an honest quantification of the uncertainty attached to any binary decision by reporting predictive probabilities that a policy-defined condition for action is or is not met.

Subhash Kulkarni
Oct 31, 2018; 38:9346-9354
Symposium and Mini-Symposium

Sibylle Béchet
Apr 8, 2020; 40:3104-3118
Neurobiology of Disease

Randy L. Buckner
Feb 11, 2009; 29:1860-1873
Neurobiology of Disease

Krabbe's disease is an infantile neurodegenerative disease, which is affected by mutations in the lysosomal enzyme galactocerebrosidase, leading to the accumulation of its metabolite psychosine. We have shown previously that the S1P receptor agonist fingolimod (FTY720) attenuates psychosine-induced glial cell death and demyelination both in vitro and ex vivo models. These data, together with a lack of therapies for Krabbe's disease, prompted the current preclinical study examining the effects of fingolimod in twitcher mice, a murine model of Krabbe's disease. Twitcher mice, both male and female, carrying a natural mutation in the galc gene were given fingolimod via drinking water (1 mg/kg/d). The direct impact of fingolimod administration was assessed via histochemical and biochemical analysis using markers of myelin, astrocytes, microglia, neurons, globoid cells, and immune cells. The effects of fingolimod on twitching behavior and life span were also demonstrated. Our results show that treatment of twitcher mice with fingolimod significantly rescued myelin levels compared with vehicle-treated animals and also regulated astrocyte and microglial reactivity. Furthermore, nonphosphorylated neurofilament levels were decreased, indicating neuroprotective and neurorestorative processes. These protective effects of fingolimod on twitcher mice brain pathology was reflected by an increased life span of fingolimod-treated twitcher mice. These in vivo findings corroborate initial in vitro studies and highlight the potential use of S1P receptors as drug targets for treatment of Krabbe's disease.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This study demonstrates that the administration of the therapy known as fingolimod in a mouse model of Krabbe's disease (namely, the twitcher mouse model) significantly rescues myelin levels. Further, the drug fingolimod also regulates the reactivity of glial cells, astrocytes and microglia, in this mouse model. These protective effects of fingolimod result in an increased life span of twitcher mice.

The transcription factor Nurr1 has been identified to be ectopically induced in the striatum of rodents expressing l-DOPA-induced dyskinesia (LID). In the present study, we sought to characterize Nurr1 as a causative factor in LID expression. We used rAAV2/5 to overexpress Nurr1 or GFP in the parkinsonian striatum of LID-resistant Lewis or LID-prone Fischer-344 (F344) male rats. In a second cohort, rats received the Nurr1 agonist amodiaquine (AQ) together with l-DOPA or ropinirole. All rats received a chronic DA agonist and were evaluated for LID severity. Finally, we performed single-unit recordings and dendritic spine analyses on striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) in drug-naïve rAAV-injected male parkinsonian rats. rAAV-GFP injected LID-resistant hemi-parkinsonian Lewis rats displayed mild LID and no induction of striatal Nurr1 despite receiving a high dose of l-DOPA. However, Lewis rats overexpressing Nurr1 developed severe LID. Nurr1 agonism with AQ exacerbated LID in F344 rats. We additionally determined that in l-DOPA-naïve rats striatal rAAV-Nurr1 overexpression (1) increased cortically-evoked firing in a subpopulation of identified striatonigral MSNs, and (2) altered spine density and thin-spine morphology on striatal MSNs; both phenomena mimicking changes seen in dyskinetic rats. Finally, we provide postmortem evidence of Nurr1 expression in striatal neurons of l-DOPA-treated PD patients. Our data demonstrate that ectopic induction of striatal Nurr1 is capable of inducing LID behavior and associated neuropathology, even in resistant subjects. These data support a direct role of Nurr1 in aberrant neuronal plasticity and LID induction, providing a potential novel target for therapeutic development.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The transcription factor Nurr1 is ectopically induced in striatal neurons of rats exhibiting levodopa-induced dyskinesia [LID; a side-effect to dopamine replacement strategies in Parkinson's disease (PD)]. Here we asked whether Nurr1 is causing LID. Indeed, rAAV-mediated expression of Nurr1 in striatal neurons was sufficient to overcome LID-resistance, and Nurr1 agonism exacerbated LID severity in dyskinetic rats. Moreover, we found that expression of Nurr1 in l-DOPA naïve hemi-parkinsonian rats resulted in the formation of morphologic and electrophysiological signatures of maladaptive neuronal plasticity; a phenomenon associated with LID. Finally, we determined that ectopic Nurr1 expression can be found in the putamen of l-DOPA-treated PD patients. These data suggest that striatal Nurr1 is an important mediator of the formation of LID.

Today’s fisheries sector hosts a multibillion dollar industry that is a vital source of food and nutrition, employment, trade, economic wellbeing and recreation. What is blue growth? The concept of a "blue economy" came out of the 2012 Rio+20 Conference and emphasizes conservation and sustainable management, based on the premise that healthy ocean ecosystems are more productive and a must for sustainable [...]

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) or sheep and goat plague is a highly contagious animal disease affecting small ruminants. An estimated 300 million families who rely on small ruminants, such as sheep and goats, as a source of food and income are at risk of losing their livelihoods and may be forced to migrate, particularly in areas where food insecurity, other resource shortages [...]

New research hints at how different environments impact animal behavior and the spread of infection

Illustrators are sharing artwork of Amabie, a spirit first popularized during the Edo period, on social media

The Northwoods League announced Thursday that its 2020 season will not begin on May 26, as originally scheduled, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

A doctor on Manitoulin Island is encouraging seasonal residents to stay home and not to come visit during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Holland America and Princess cruise lines issued notices this week cancelling the remainder of the season in Atlantic Canada, citing global health concerns, and that's taking a huge bite out of the Port of Sydney's budget.

The Korean baseball league opens its delayed season Tuesday in empty stadiums across South Korea and Canada's Jamie Romak, along with the rest of the league's players, are getting used to a new baseball normal that includes rules against high fives and spitting, daily temperature checks and the absence of fans.

Tourism Cavendish Beach says it is hopeful the Confederation Bridge and province will reopen to certain visitors as soon as it is safe to do so.

National Basketball Association executives and player agents are calling on the league to cancel the remainder of the 2019-20 season due to health concerns over the novel coronavirus outbreak, CNBC reported on Thursday.

The German soccer league reported 10 positive tests for the coronavirus among 36 clubs in the Bundesliga and second division on Monday.

The CFL and CFL Players' Association are going to get back to talking. A league source said Monday the two sides have agreed to resume discussions on potential contingency plans for the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The NFL campaign and an abbreviated baseball season may be possible if games are played without fans and players are kept in lockdown, U.S. President Donald Trump’s leading infectious disease adviser said Wednesday.

The National Football League (NFL), the only major American sporting league so far largely unaffected by the coronavirus outbreak, says it is on course to begin its season on time in September.

The Kansas City Chiefs will open defence of their Super Bowl championship by hosting Houston on Sept. 10 in the NFL's annual kickoff game — pending developments in the coronavirus pandemic, of course.

A normal draft year would see NHL scouts and executives spend the spring crisscrossing Europe and North America collecting information. The circumstances surrounding a 2020 draft and the COVID-19 pandemic, however, aren't anything resembling normal.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Sunday that NHL players would — at a minimum — need to follow quarantine protocols if they were to arrive in Canada while the border remains closed due to the pandemic.

The post FIRST Tech Challenge – Kick off the 2019-2020 season with SOLIDWORKS appeared first on SOLIDWORKS Education Blog.

Times are changing for OM Mexico, with new staff and a new office.

Veracruz, Mexico :: An overview of the various initiatives crewmembers have dispersed to while Logos Hope undergoes her annual maintenance.

A long-termer shares how she, as a childless woman, has been given opportunity to speak into local women’s lives in North Africa.

Vatican City, May 4, 2020 / 07:29 am (CNA).- Jesus died for everyone, but disordered attachment to one’s own ideas can cause divisions which break the unity of God’s people, Pope Francis said at Mass on Monday.

“There are ideas, positions that create division, to the point that the division is more important than unity,” the pope said May 4. People think “my idea is more important than the Holy Spirit who guides us.”

Francis called division a “disease of the Church, a disease which arises from ideologies or religious factions…”

Throughout the Church’s history there has always been a spirit of thinking one’s self to be righteous and others to be sinners, he said, describing it as an “us and the others” attitude, which says others are already condemned, while “we have the right position before God.”

Speaking from the chapel of his Vatican residence, the Casa Santa Marta, Francis emphasized that Jesus died for everyone.

Imagining a dialogue with someone questioning the statement, he said, “‘But did [Jesus] also die for that low-life who made my life impossible?’ He died for him too. ‘And for that crook?’ He died for him.”

“For everyone,” Francis underlined. “And also for people who do not believe in him or are of other religions: he died for everyone.”

Without using a name, the pope referenced a retired cardinal living inside the Vatican, who, he said, likes to say “the Church is like a river,” with different people being like different parts of the river.

“But the important thing is that everyone is inside the river,” the pope said. “This is the unity of the Church.”

The Church is a wide river, “because the Lord wants it so.”

Pope Francis quoted a verse from the day’s Gospel reading, John 10:11-18, when Jesus says: “I have other sheep that do not belong to this fold. These also I must lead, and they will hear my voice, and there will be one flock, one shepherd.”

Jesus is saying “I am Shepherd of everyone,” the pope explained. “Everyone: Big and small, rich and poor, good and bad.”

Pointing to the divisions in the Church after the Second Vatican Council, he said it is permissible to think differently from one another, but always “in the unity of the Church, under Jesus the Shepherd.”

He prayed that the Lord would free Catholics from the illness of division and help them to see “this great thing from Jesus, that in him we are all brothers and he is the Shepherd of all.”

Pope Francis offered the day’s Mass for families, that in this time of quarantine because of the coronavirus pandemic they will continue to try new and creative things together and with their children.

He also acknowledged the reality of domestic violence, asking for prayers for families “to continue in peace with creativity and patience in this quarantine.”

After Mass the pope led those following the Mass via livestream in an act of spiritual communion. He concluded with Eucharistic adoration and benediction.

 

A church planting team shares their faith with Muslim friends and neighbours during a time set aside for sowing intentionally in people’s lives.

Consumers who buy European lottery tickets with their credit cards are in contravention of foreign exchange regulations and may be liable to steep levies.

THERE will be many of us who embrace technology with all the ham-fisted ineptitude of a fumbling, muttering old colonel trying to unravel the stubborn, sticky wrapping of a barley sugar.

Both the AFT and the NEA vowed to engage their members more deeply this year in deciding who to back for the White House. How well have they done?

An exchange between two of the top-tier candidates for president highlighted how segregation in education could prove to be a potent issue in the Democratic Party's 2020 primary.

The first season of the Netflix political potboiler was rich with education-policy plotlines, and we're hoping for more of the same.