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Trump’s mystifying victory lap at the UN

After 614 nights with Donald Trump in office, we know quite a lot about the president’s foreign policy. He has visceral beliefs about America’s role in the world that date back 30 years, most notably skepticism of alliances, opposition to free trade, and support for authoritarian strongmen. Many of his administration’s senior officials do not…

      
 
 




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Congress and Trump have produced four emergency pandemic bills. Don’t expect a fifth anytime soon.

       




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COVID-19 is hitting the nation’s largest metros the hardest, making a “restart” of the economy more difficult

The coronavirus pandemic has thrown America into a coast-to-coast lockdown, spurring ubiquitous economic impacts. Data on smartphone movement indicate that virtually all regions of the nation are practicing some degree of social distancing, resulting in less foot traffic and sales for businesses. Meanwhile, last week’s release of unemployment insurance claims confirms that every state is seeing a significant…

       




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Class Notes: Harvard Discrimination, California’s Shelter-in-Place Order, and More

This week in Class Notes: California's shelter-in-place order was effective at mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Asian Americans experience significant discrimination in the Harvard admissions process. The U.S. tax system is biased against labor in favor of capital, which has resulted in inefficiently high levels of automation. Our top chart shows that poor workers are much more likely to keep commuting in…

       




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Saria’s story: Life as a Syrian refugee

The international refugee crisis is one of the defining political issues of our time. Haunting images—a father passing his infant between barbed wire, a stunned and bloodied five-year-old Omran—have offered powerful proof of the human cost of this crisis. As an amateur photographer, Saria Samakie—himself a Syrian refugee—understands the power of such images and of…

       




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DOE’s justification for rescinding Gainful Employment rules distorts research

The Department of Education has rescinded the Gainful Employment regulations developed by the Obama administration. These regulations were designed to cut off federal student aid to postsecondary programs that produce earnings too low to support the debt students incur while earning credentials that promise to lead to good jobs. This action is a significant step…

       




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Artificial intelligence and bias: Four key challenges

It is not news that, for all its promised benefits, artificial intelligence has a bias problem. Concerns regarding racial or gender bias in AI have arisen in applications as varied as hiring, policing, judicial sentencing, and financial services. If this extraordinary technology is going to reach its full potential, addressing bias will need to be…

       




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Artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and the uncertain future of truth

Deepfakes are videos that have been constructed to make a person appear to say or do something that they never said or did. With artificial intelligence-based methods for creating deepfakes becoming increasingly sophisticated and accessible, deepfakes are raising a set of challenging policy, technology, and legal issues. Deepfakes can be used in ways that are…

       




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Ways to mitigate artificial intelligence problems

The world is experiencing extraordinary advances in artificial intelligence, with applications being deployed in finance, health care, education, e-commerce, criminal justice, and national defense, among other areas. As AI technology advances across industries and into everyday use around the world, important questions must be addressed regarding transparency, fairness, privacy, ethics, and human safety. What are…

       




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Artificial intelligence, geopolitics, and information integrity

Much has been written, and rightly so, about the potential that artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to create and promote misinformation. But there is a less well-recognized but equally important application for AI in helping to detect misinformation and limit its spread. This dual role will be particularly important in geopolitics, which is closely…

       




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Italy’s hazardous new experiment: Genetically modified populism

Finally, three months after its elections, Italy has produced a new creature in the political biosphere: a “populist but technocratic” government. What we will be watching is not really the result of a Frankenstein experiment, rather something closer to a genetically modified organism. Such a pairing is probably something unheard of in history: Into a…

       




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Artificial Intelligence Won’t Save Us From Coronavirus

       




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COVID-19 trends from Germany show different impacts by gender and age

The world is in the midst of a global pandemic and all countries have been impacted significantly. In Europe, the most successful policy response to the pandemic has been by Germany, as measured by the decline in new COVID-19 cases in recent weeks and consistent increase in recovered’ cases. This is also reflected in the…

       




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Artificial Intelligence Won’t Save Us From Coronavirus

       




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Innovation Is Not an Unqualified Good


Innovation is the driver of long-term economic growth and a key ingredient for improvements in healthcare, safety, and security, not to mention those little comforts and conveniences to which we have grown so accustomed. But innovation is not an unqualified good; it taxes society with costs.

The market system internalizes only a portion of the total costs of innovation. Other costs, however, are not included in market prices. Among the most important sources for those unaccounted costs are creative destruction, externalities, and weak safeguards for unwanted consequences.

Creative Destruction and Innovation

Schumpeter described creative destruction as the process by which innovative entrepreneurs outcompete older firms who unable to adapt to a new productive platform go out of business, laying off their employees and writing off their productive assets. Innovation, thus, also produces job loss and wealth destruction. Externalities are side effects with costs not priced in the marketplace such as environmental degradation and pollution. While externalities are largely invisible in the accounting books, they levy very real costs to society in terms of human health and increased vulnerability to environmental shocks. In addition, new technologies are bound to have unwanted deleterious effects, some of which are harmful to workers and consumers, and often, even to third parties not participating in those markets. Yet, there are little financial or cultural incentives for innovators to design new technologies with safeguards against those effects.

Indeed, innovation imposes unaccounted costs and those costs are not allocated in proportion of the benefits. Nothing in the market system obligates the winners of creative destruction to compensate the unemployed of phased-out industries, nor mandates producers to compensate those shouldering the costs of externalities, nor places incentives to invest in preventing unwanted effects in new production processes and new products. It is the role of policy to create the appropriate incentives for a fair distribution of those social costs. As a matter of national policy we must continue every effort to foster innovation, but we must do so recognizing the trade-offs.

Strengthening the Social Safety Net

Society as a whole benefits from creative destruction; society as a whole must then strengthen the safety net for the unemployed and double up efforts to help workers retrain and find employment in emerging industries. Regulators and industry will always disagree on many things but they could agree to collaborate on a system of regulatory incentives to ease transition to productive platforms with low externality costs. Fostering innovation should also mean promoting a culture of anticipation to better manage unwanted consequences.

Let’s invest in innovation with optimism, but let’s be pragmatic about it. To reap the most net social benefit from innovation, we must work on two fronts, to maximize benefits and to minimize the social costs, particularly those costs not traditionally accounted. The challenge for policymakers is to do it fairly and smartly, creating a correspondence of benefits and costs, and not unnecessarily encumbering innovative activity.

Commentary published in The International Economy magazine, Spring 2014 issue, as part of a symposium of experts responding to the question: Does Innovation Lead to prosperity for all?

Image Source: © Suzanne Plunkett / Reuters
     
 
 




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Inspectors general will drain the swamp, if Trump stops attacking them

Over the past month, President Trump has fired one inspector general, removed an acting inspector general set to oversee the pandemic response and its more than $2 trillion dollars in new funding, and publicly criticized another from the White House briefing room. These sustained attacks against the federal government’s watchdogs fly in the face of…

       




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If you can’t keep hackers out, find and remove them faster

In the wake of recent intrusions into government systems, it is difficult to identify anyone who believes defenders have the advantage in cyberspace. Digital adversaries seem to achieve their objectives at will, spending months inside target networks before someone, usually a third party, discovers the breach. Following the announcement, managers and stakeholders commit to improving…

       




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New cybersecurity mantra: “If you can’t protect it, don’t collect it”

In early August I attended my 11th Black Hat USA conference in sunny Las Vegas, Nevada. Black Hat is the somewhat more corporate sibling of the annual DEF CON hacker convention, which follows Black Hat. Since my first visit to both conferences in 2002, I’ve kept tabs on the themes expressed by computer security practitioners.…

       




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Make way for mayors: Why the UK’s biggest power shift may not be the June 8 general election

United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for a snap general election on June 8 has threatened to overshadow another important vote that could reshape the landscape of urban leadership in England. On May 4, voters in six regions, including the large metros of Manchester and Liverpool, will head to the polls for the very…

       




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Classifying Sustainable Development Goal trajectories: A country-level methodology for identifying which issues and people are getting left behind

       




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Getting specific to leave no one behind

World leaders are gathering in New York this week to attend the first major stocktaking summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). When the SDGs were agreed by all countries in 2015, they were intended to help countries accelerate their transition to more sustainable paths by 2030, with sustainability understood to include economic, environmental, and…

       




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Leave no one behind: Time for specifics on the sustainable development goals

A central theme of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is a pledge “that no one will be left behind.” Since the establishment of the SDGs in 2015, the importance of this commitment has only grown in political resonance throughout all parts of the globe. Yet, to drive meaningful results, the mantra needs to be matched…

       




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Scaling Up Programs for the Rural Poor: IFAD's Experience, Lessons and Prospects (Phase 2)


The challenge of rural poverty and food insecurity in the developing world remains daunting. Recent estimates show that “there are still about 1.2 billion extremely poor people in the world. In addition, about 870 million people are undernourished, and about 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiency. About 70 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas, and many have some dependency on agriculture,” (Cleaver 2012). Addressing this challenge by assisting rural small-holder farmers in developing countries is the mandate of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), an international financial institution based in Rome.

The International Fund for Agricultural Development is a relatively small donor in the global aid architecture, accounting for approximately one-half of 1 percent of all aid paid directly to developing countries in 2010. Although more significant in its core area of agricultural and rural development, IFAD still accounts for less than 5 percent of total official development assistance in that sector.1 Confronted with the gap between its small size and the large scale of the problem it has been mandated to address, IFAD seeks ways to increase its impact for every dollar it invests in agriculture and rural development on behalf of its member states. One indicator of this intention to scale up is that it has set a goal to reach 90 million rural poor between 2012 and 2015 and lift 80 million out of poverty during that time. These numbers are roughly three times the number of poor IFAD has reached previously during a similar time span. More generally, IFAD has declared that scaling up is “mission critical,” and this scaling-up objective is now firmly embedded in its corporate strategy and planning statements. Also, increasingly, IFAD’s operational practices are geared towards helping its clients achieve scaling up on the ground with the support of its loans and grants.

This was not always the case. For many years, IFAD stressed innovation as the key to success, giving little attention to systematically replicating and building on successful innovations. In this regard, IFAD was not alone. In fact, few aid agencies have systematically pursued the scaling up of successful projects. However, in 2009, IFAD management decided to explore how it could increase its focus on scaling up. It gave a grant to the Brookings Institution to review IFAD’s experience with scaling up and to assess its operational strategies, policies and processes with a view to strengthening its approach to scaling up. Based on an extensive review of IFAD documentation, two country case studies and intensive interactions with IFAD staff and managers, the Brookings team prepared a report that it submitted to IFAD management in June 2010 and published as a Brookings Global Working Paper in early 2011 (Linn et al. 2011).

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Image Source: © Andrew Biraj / Reuters
     
 
 




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Do social protection programs improve life satisfaction? Lessons from Iraq

There is much debate now—in both developed and developing economies—on the merits or de-merits of universal basic income (UBI), with strong opinions on either side. Advocates clash with those who see targeted transfers to the poor—such as the conditional cash transfers first pioneered in Latin America—as better at providing incentives for long-term investments in health,…

       




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Do social protection programs improve life satisfaction?

An extensive literature examines the link between social protection-related public spending and objective outcomes of well-being such as income, employment, education, and health (see Department for International Development [DFID], 2011; ILO, 2010; World Bank, 2012). Much less attention has been given to how government social protection policies influence individuals’ own sense of well-being, particularly in…

       




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Does decarbonization mean de-coalification? Discussing carbon reduction policies

In September, the Energy Security and Climate Initiative (ESCI) at Brookings held the third meeting of its Coal Task Force (CTF), during which participants discussed the dynamics of three carbon policy instruments: performance standards, cap and trade, and a carbon tax. The dialogue revolved around lessons learned from implementing these policy mechanisms, especially as they…

       




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End of life planning: An idea whose time has come?


Far too many people reach their advanced years without planning for how they want their lives to end. The result too often is needless suffering, reduced dignity and autonomy, and agonizing decisions for family members.

Addressing these end-of-life issues is difficult. Most of us don’t want to confront them for ourselves or our family members. And until recently, many people resisted the idea of reimbursing doctors for end-of-life counselling sessions. In 2009, Sarah Palin labelled such sessions as the first step in establishing “death panels.” Although no such thing was contemplated when Representative Earl Blumenauer (D- Oregon) proposed such reimbursement, the majority of the public believed that death panels and euthanasia were just around the corner. Even the Obama Administration subsequently backed away from efforts to allow such reimbursement.

Fortunately, this is now history. In the past year or two the tenor of the debate has shifted toward greater acceptance of the need to deal openly with these issues. At least three developments illustrate the shift.

First, talk of “death panels” has receded, and new regulations, approved in late 2015 to take effect in January of this year, now allow Medicare reimbursement for end of life counselling. The comment period leading up to this decision was, according to most accounts, relatively free of the divisive rhetoric characterizing earlier debates. Both the American Medical Association and the American Hospital Association have signaled their support.

Second, physicians are increasingly recognizing that the objective of extending life must be balanced against the expressed priorities of their patients which often include the quality and not just the length of remaining life. Atal Gwande’s best-selling book, Being Mortal, beautifully illustrates the challenges for both doctors and patients. With well-grounded and persuasive logic, Gwande speaks of the need to de-medicalize death and dying.

The third development is perhaps the most surprising. It is a bold proposal advanced by Governor Jeb Bush before he bowed out of the Presidential race, suggesting that eligibility for Medicare be conditioned on having an advanced directive. His interest in these issues goes back to the time when as governor of Florida he became embroiled in a dispute about the removal of a feeding tube from a comatose Terry Schiavo. Ms. Schiavo’s husband and parents were at odds about what to do, her husband favoring removal and her parents wishing to sustain life. In the end, although the Governor sided with the parents, the courts decided in favor of the husband and allowed her to die. If an advanced directive had existed, the family disagreement along with a long and contentious court battle could have been avoided.

The point of such directives is not to pressure people into choosing one option over another but simply to insure that they consider their own preferences while they are still able. Making this a requirement for receipt of Medicare would almost surely encourage more people to think seriously about the type of care they would like toward the end of life and to talk with both their doctors and their family about these views. However, for many others, it would be a step too far and might reverse the new openness to advanced planning. A softer version nudging Medicare applicants to address these issues might be more acceptable. They would be asked to review several advance directive protocols, to choose one (or substitute their own). If they felt strongly that such planning was inappropriate, they could opt out of the process entirely and still receive their benefits.

Advanced care planning should not be linked only to Medicare. We should encourage people to make these decisions earlier in their lives and provide opportunities for them to revisit their initial decisions. This could be accomplished by implementing a similar nudge-like process for Medicaid recipients and those covered by private insurance.

Right now too few people are well informed about their end-of-life options, have talked to their doctors or their family members, or have created the necessary documents. Only about half of all of those who have reached the age of 60 have an advanced directive such as a living will or a power of attorney specifying their wishes. Individual preferences will naturally vary. Some will want every possible treatment to forestall death even if it comes with some suffering and only a small hope of recovery; others will want to avoid this by being allowed to die sooner or in greater comfort. Research suggests that when given a choice, most people will choose comfort care over extended life.

In the absence of advance planning, the choice of how one dies is often left to doctors, hospitals, and relatives whose wishes may or may not represent the preferences of the individual in their care. For example, most people would prefer to die at home but the majority do not. Physicians are committed to saving lives and relatives often feel guilty about letting a loved one “go.”

The costs of prolonging life when there is little point in doing so can be high. The average Medicare patient in their last year of life costs the government $33,000 with spending in that final year accounting for 25 percent of all Medicare spending. Granted no one knows in advance which year is “their last” so these data exaggerate the savings that better advance planning might yield, but even if it is 10% that represents over $50 billion a year. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, an expert in this area, notes that hospice care can reduce costs by 10 to 20 percent for cancer patients but warns that little or no savings have accompanied palliative care for heart failure or emphysema patients, for example. This could reflect the late use of palliative care in such cases or the fact that palliative care is more expensive than assumed.

In the end, Dr. Emanuel concludes, and I heartily agree, that a call for better advance planning should not be based primarily on its potential cost savings but rather on the respect it affords the individual to die in dignity and in accordance with their own preferences.


Editor's note: This piece originally appeared in Inside Sources.

Publication: Inside Sources
     
 
 




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Experts assess the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 50 years after it went into effect

March 5, 2020 marks the 50th anniversary of the entry into effect of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Five decades on, is the treaty achieving what was originally envisioned? Where is it succeeding in curbing the spread of nuclear weapons, and where might it be falling short? Four Brookings experts on defense…

       




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Managing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East

This paper appears as chapter 4 of Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President. See the book overview and executive summaries for information on other chapters. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CURRENT U.S. EFFORTS to stop Iran’s nuclear program have failed. Fortunately, however, because of technical limits, Iran appears to be two to three years…

       




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Why more women should choose a daily uniform

There's a lot to be said for simplifying one's wardrobe.




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7 ways to welcome winter wildlife into your yard

Little things, like leaving brush piles and unraked leaves, can provide shelter to animals in a harsh season.




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Brazil: Bolsonaro intensifies the crisis of bourgeois institutions

Bolsonaro's goverment in Brazil is wracked with splits and crises. The ruling class is hopelessly divided over the coronavirus pandemic and the economic calamity facing the country.




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My totally unscientific ranking of public transit systems

The New York subway, The Los Angeles Metro, and more ranked by someone who travels a lot but never drives.




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First residential building certified to the Fitwel standard

Fitwel is all about healthy living, and it's going to be big.




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Thrift stores are tired of getting people's useless junk

"Don't donate if you wouldn't give it to a mate."




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California Utility Opens First Sustainable Campus as Model Utility Site

Burbank Water & Power opens a sustainable power plant campus as a model for re-adapting industrial sites from water reclamation to solar




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Green gifts for the darkly romantic Valentine

From carnivorous plants to occult-inspired tokens of affection, these are not your grandmother's Valentine's gifts.




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Don't rush out to buy a last-minute Valentine's Day gift

It's important to remember that every physical gift comes at a cost that's both financial and environmental.




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The Starck difference between two "green" prefabs

The differences between the new prefabs by Philippe Starck for RIKO and the Bright Built Homes are instructive.




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Beautiful Bike Wedding in Sao Paulo

It might not be a first, but you have to give this couple credit for marrying on a bike in a city where traffic is so heavy that even pedestrians beat cars.




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A gift registry for people who don't want stuff

More love, less waste. That's the idea behind a new gift registry. And it's an idea that might just take off.




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World Environment Day 2015 to promote sustainable lifestyles

The UN Environment Program takes aim at unsustainable consumption in 2015.




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Are environmental laws to blame for California's wildfires?

A certain Commander in Chief says that wildfires are being made 'so much worse by the bad environmental laws.' Here's what's really happening.




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From Wildlife Photography to Conservation Projects and Beyond, a Look at 2012 According to Jaymi

Looking back on this year, so much happened! I wanted to take a moment to go look back on the articles I had the most fun writing, the issues I had the most fun covering, and the adventures I had the most fun experiencing. Enjoy this look back!




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Wineries For Climate Protection – the Manifesto!

Here's the manifesto by the Spanish wine industry to fight climate change by making wineries more eco-friendly. Vines are very sensitive to climate change and so their environment, landscape, culture and tradition need protecting.




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US Wildlife Services killed 1.3 million non-invasive animals in 2017

From foxes and falcons to otters and owls, the USDA program is doing away with wildlife in droves.




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Lazivores unite: A manifesto for lazy gardening

It's time that the lazy gardeners among us rise up and take an explicit stand.




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Rare Footage of Wildlife in Thailand's Forests Shows That Anti-Poaching Efforts Work (Video)

Elephants, tigers, and other threatened species are thriving in Thailand's Western Forest Complex thanks to conservation efforts.




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A New Form of Subsidized Housing and Urban Intensification: Living in a Billboard

It makes sense; They have great views, lots of exposure to wind and sun, and think of all the exercise you'll get climbing up.




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Over 200 Animals Rescued From Wildlife Traffickers in Thailand

Among the hundreds of animals seized were 5 tigers, 13 white lions, three pumas, three kangaroos, four flamingos, two crowned cranes, 66 marmosets, two orangutans, and two red pandas.