Paris : G. Steinheil, 1888.

Oxford : printed by W. Baxter, 1843.

Paris : Steinheil, 1888.

[London], [1827?]

NHL fans have to stay busy somehow, right? Their HockeyAtHome videos are almost too good to be true. By Brooke Destra

Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, 1981.

In this paper, we extend the methodology developed for Support Vector Machines (SVM) using the $ell_2$-norm ($ell_2$-SVM) to the more general case of $ell_p$-norms with $p>1$ ($ell_p$-SVM). We derive second order cone formulations for the resulting dual and primal problems. The concept of kernel function, widely applied in $ell_2$-SVM, is extended to the more general case of $ell_p$-norms with $p>1$ by defining a new operator called multidimensional kernel. This object gives rise to reformulations of dual problems, in a transformed space of the original data, where the dependence on the original data always appear as homogeneous polynomials. We adapt known solution algorithms to efficiently solve the primal and dual resulting problems and some computational experiments on real-world datasets are presented showing rather good behavior in terms of the accuracy of $ell_p$-SVM with $p>1$.

Data-driven modelling and computational predictions based on maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt-principle) aim at finding as-simple-as-possible - but not simpler then necessary - models that allow to avoid the data overfitting problem. We derive a multivariate non-parametric and non-stationary formulation of the MaxEnt-principle and show that its solution can be approximated through a numerical maximisation of the sparse constrained optimization problem with regularization. Application of the resulting algorithm to popular financial benchmarks reveals memoryless models allowing for simple and qualitative descriptions of the major stock market indexes data. We compare the obtained MaxEnt-models to the heteroschedastic models from the computational econometrics (GARCH, GARCH-GJR, MS-GARCH, GARCH-PML4) in terms of the model fit, complexity and prediction quality. We compare the resulting model log-likelihoods, the values of the Bayesian Information Criterion, posterior model probabilities, the quality of the data autocorrelation function fits as well as the Value-at-Risk prediction quality. We show that all of the considered seven major financial benchmark time series (DJI, SPX, FTSE, STOXX, SMI, HSI and N225) are better described by conditionally memoryless MaxEnt-models with nonstationary regime-switching than by the common econometric models with finite memory. This analysis also reveals a sparse network of statistically-significant temporal relations for the positive and negative latent variance changes among different markets. The code is provided for open access.

Peggy Cénac, Basile de Loynes, Yoann Offret, Arnaud Rousselle.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 2, 858--892.

Abstract:
The recurrence and transience of persistent random walks built from variable length Markov chains are investigated. It turns out that these stochastic processes can be seen as Lévy walks for which the persistence times depend on some internal Markov chain: they admit Markov random walk skeletons. A recurrence versus transience dichotomy is highlighted. Assuming the positive recurrence of the driving chain, a sufficient Fourier criterion for the recurrence, close to the usual Chung–Fuchs one, is given and a series criterion is derived. The key tool is the Nagaev–Guivarc’h method. Finally, we focus on particular two-dimensional persistent random walks, including directionally reinforced random walks, for which necessary and sufficient Fourier and series criteria are obtained. Inspired by ( Adv. Math. 208 (2007) 680–698), we produce a genuine counterexample to the conjecture of ( Adv. Math. 117 (1996) 239–252). As for the one-dimensional case studied in ( J. Theoret. Probab. 31 (2018) 232–243), it is easier for a persistent random walk than its skeleton to be recurrent. However, such examples are much more difficult to exhibit in the higher dimensional context. These results are based on a surprisingly novel – to our knowledge – upper bound for the Lévy concentration function associated with symmetric distributions.

Peter Klivenyi
Jan 1, 2000; 20:1-7
Cellular

The Library Street Collective's "We All Rise" coloring book features drawings by around 30 contemporary artists

A sled in the Smithsonian collections marks the historic race

Veteran musher Lance Mackey has had his 21st place finish in this year's Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race vacated because of a failed drug test, race officials announced Thursday.

The liquidity trap is synonymous with ineffective monetary policy. The common wisdom is that, as the short-term interest rate nears its effective lower bound, monetary policy cannot do much to stimulate the economy. However, central banks have resorted to alternative instruments, such as QE, credit easing and forward guidance.

The Covid-19 shock is placing enormous strains on corporates cash buffers. Corporate financial statements from 2019 suggest that 50% of firms do not have sufficient cash to cover total debt servicing costs over the coming year. Credit lines could provide firms with additional liquidity. On average undrawn credit stood around 120% of debt servicing costs at end 2019. However, access is uneven and banks may be reluctant to renew or extend them in the current environment. Sticky operating expenses result in many firms running operating losses, placing an additional burden on cash buffers. Estimates indicate that following a 10% drop in revenues, operating expenses only fall by 6% on average. Simulations suggest that if revenues fall by 25% in 2020, then closing the entire funding gap with debt would raise firm leverage by around 10 percentage points.

Everyone is rooting for Korean baseball to succeed right now because, if it fails, we're left with a pretty dark thought: If they can't pull this off, what hope do we have?

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 4% year on year at end-June 2019, to reach $11.9 trillion. Foreign currency credit denominated in euros and Japanese yen continued to expand at a faster pace than that in US dollars, growing at annual rates of 9% and 8%, respectively. US dollar credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) grew at an annual rate of 2% (to reach $3.7 trillion), though growth varied substantially across regions.

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 5% year on year at end-September 2019, to reach $12.1 trillion. Euro-denominated credit outside the euro area continued to expand at a fast pace (9%). In contrast, the growth rate of yen-denominated credit outside Japan fell to 1%. Strong debt securities issuance drove expansions in US dollar and euro credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). US dollar credit to EMDEs grew at an annual rate of 3% (to reach $3.8 trillion); euro credit to EMDEs expanded by 9% (to reach €0.7 trillion).

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 6% in 2019, to reach $12.2 trillion at end-2019. The annual growth rate of euro-denominated credit outside the euro area slowed to 6%, while that of yen-denominated credit outside Japan turned negative (-1%). In 2019, euro-denominated credit overtook US dollar-denominated credit as the largest stock of foreign currency credit to emerging Europe. The debt securities share in US dollar credit outside the United States has risen considerably over the past decade across a number of major borrowing regions.

The term global liquidity is used by the BIS to mean the ease of financing in global financial markets. Credit is among the key indicators of global liquidity, and is the focus of the quarterly indicators estimated by the BIS.

The Mississauga Food Bank says a $100,000 donation made earlier this week by New York Knicks rookie RJ Barrett will provide 200,000 meals as part of the community's fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

We develop a parsimonious model to study the effect of regulations aimed at reducing counterparty risk on the structure of over-the-counter securities markets. We find that such regulations promote entry of dealers, thus fostering competition and lowering spreads. Greater competition, however, has an indirect negative effect on market-making profitability.

Bank for International Settlements BIS Working Papers by Francesca Carapella and Cyril Monnet

European Central Bank Working Papers by Marien Ferdinandusse, Maximilian Freier and Annukka Ristiniemi

CME will be updating liquidity parameters for Interest Rate Swap contracts denominated in BRL and MXN. These changes only impact portfolios with larger BRL or MXN exposures. For MXN, the impact to liquidity add-on is approx. 5-10% for portfolios with aggregated DV01 above 100M+ DV01 in local currency. For BRL, the impact to liquidity add-on is 30%+ for portfolios with aggregated DV01 above 10M+ in local currency. Based on current exposures, CME Clearing expects that there will be no impact to existing portfolios at this time. These changes will be available for testing in our New Release environment April 29, 2020, with a production date of May 4, 2020.

Click here for the full text of the advisory

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Andy Murray does not think getting the professional tennis circuit back up and running should be a priority any time soon.

An armoured car guarded the Grand Place in Brussels city centre yesterday as a group of women sat drinking coffee at an outdoor table. A reporter asked one of them what she would do if terrorists started shooting? She said: "Smile. Sit. Drink coffee. Enjoy – even if it is the last."

In two-parent households, who's taking on the biggest role as schoolwork supervisor? It appears that the answer depends on who you ask.

The associations between food insecurity and child well-being have been well studied on the basis of household levels of food insecurity, as reported by heads of households.

Household measures, however, may not capture gender biases in food insecurity and morbidity. This study assessed adolescents' own experience with food insecurity and how it was associated with morbidity and the effect of gender in this process. (Read the full article)

Although China has the largest birth population in the world and a number of multicenter studies of neonatal respiratory failure are reported, there is a paucity of data regarding outcome measurement of very premature neonates requiring respiratory care and surfactant therapy.

This study is the largest survey, to date, in a Chinese network of 55 NICUs that presents the incidence, morbidity, and mortality rates, with risk factors of neonatal respiratory failure, with special emphasis on surfactant-treated very immature infants. (Read the full article)

Infants weighing 501 to 1500 g are at high risk for mortality and for neonatal morbidities associated with both short- and long-term adverse consequences.

Mortality and major neonatal morbidity in survivors decreased for infants 501 to 1500 g between 2000 and 2009. However, in 2009, a high proportion of these infants still either died or survived after experiencing ≥1 major neonatal morbidity. (Read the full article)

Preterm children born between 29 and 36 gestational weeks are at higher risk of developmental delay. The Ages and Stages Questionnaires (ASQ) have been recommended as a developmental screening tool.

At 12 months’ corrected age (CA), the ASQ was insufficient in identifying delays on both mental and psychomotor scales of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development but was accurate in detecting mental delay at CA of 24 months. (Read the full article)

Literature about polymorphic expression of an apparent life-threatening event (ALTE), particularly that concerning discrimination between ALTE with evident cause and idiopathic ALTE, is scarce. Relationships between SIDS and ALTEs have been supposed but data are still controversial and no genetic data are available.

Genetic analysis (5HTT and MAOA) on ALTEs and idiopathic ALTEs discriminated the 2 syndromes and found a link between the idiopathic form and SIDS. Consequently, we hypothesized that the 2 latter syndromes could be different phenotype expressions of a common genetic base. (Read the full article)

Moderately preterm-born children (32–35^6/7 weeks’ gestation) are at risk for both neonatal morbidities after birth and developmental delays in early childhood. It is unknown whether neonatal morbidities contribute to the developmental delays of this particular group.

Of all neonatal morbidities commonly seen in moderately preterm-born children, only hypoglycemia increased the risk of developmental delay after moderately preterm birth. A concerted effort to prevent hypoglycemia after birth might enhance developmental outcome in this group. (Read the full article)

Children without any underlying medical condition who walk on their toes are referred to as idiopathic toe-walkers. The prevalence and early course of idiopathic toe-walking are unknown.

This study establishes the prevalence and early spontaneous course of idiopathic toe-walking in a large, well-defined cohort of 5.5-year-old children. (Read the full article)

Mortality of very low birth weight infants varies widely between regions and countries; however, the variation in morbidities after adjusting for confounders has not been adequately studied.

Composite outcome of mortality or short-term morbidity for very low birth weight infants was lower in Japan than in Canada. However, marked variations in mortality and individual morbidity exist, revealing areas for improvement in each country. (Read the full article)

Significant variation in congenital hypothyroidism screening operations/performance has been observed in the United States. The origin of this variation remains unknown, in part because of a lack of evaluation. Accordingly, debates persist about optimal screening operations including laboratory testing methods.

Four distinct screening protocols applied to Michigan resident infants are compared in detecting congenital hypothyroidism overall and specific to cases characterized by high initial thyrotropin concentrations thought to have a more severe form of the disease. (Read the full article)

Chlorhexidine cleansing of the cord can reduce mortality in high-risk settings. Time to separation may increase with topical applications of chlorhexidine; 1 previous community trial quantified this increase and did not measure whether caretakers perceived the delay.

Single and multiple cleansing of the umbilical cord increases time to separation by ~50%, or an average of 2 to 2.5 days. Caretakers were able to detect this difference and expressed dissatisfaction, while still accepting the intervention. (Read the full article)

Heated, humidified high-flow nasal cannula (HHHFNC) is a noninvasive mode of respiratory support that is commonly used in the majority of US NICUs. No large randomized trial has evaluated safety or efficacy of HHHFNC.

This large randomized controlled trial suggests that HHHFNC is as effective as nCPAP for noninvasive respiratory support and can be safely applied to a wide range of neonates. (Read the full article)

The Ages and Stages Questionnaires (ASQ) has been validated in many countries and translated into numerous languages. In most publications, it has been reported that the ASQ is accurate in detecting true problems in apparently healthy children and even in children with biological risk factors.

This report compares the third version of the ASQ and the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition, assessments. Psychometric properties showed a tendency to improve with testing age and when comparing term versus extremely preterm children. (Read the full article)

Randomized controlled trials have shown that zinc supplementation during diarrhea substantially reduces the incidence and severity. However, the effect of short-course prophylactic zinc supplementation has been observed only in children >12 months of age.

The current study was able to show that short-course prophylactic zinc supplementation significantly reduced diarrhea morbidity in apparently healthy infants of 6 to 11 months even after 5 months of follow-up. (Read the full article)

Pediatric early warning scores (PEWS) for hospital inpatients have been developed to identify patients at risk for deterioration. Beyond triage, similar systems that identify ill patients and predict requirements for a higher level of care are needed in the emergency department.

The validity of the different PEWS in pediatric emergency care patients has never been evaluated. This study showed that PEWS are capable of detecting children in need of ICU admission. (Read the full article)

Parents influence their child’s overweight development through lifestyle-related parenting practices. Although broader parenting dimensions may also affect children’s BMI, reverse causality is possible and there have been calls to examine the possible impacts of fathers.

More consistent parenting prospectively predicted lower child BMI with effects equally strong for fathers and mothers. There was little evidence of child BMI influencing parenting. Improved child BMI could be among the benefits of promoting parenting consistency of both parents. (Read the full article)

Individuals with autism spectrum disorders have a higher comorbidity burden than the general pediatric population, including higher rates of seizures, psychiatric illness, and gastrointestinal disorders.

Comorbidities do not occur evenly. Our clustering analysis reveals subgroups characterized by seizure, psychiatric disorders, and complex multisystem disorders including auditory and gastrointestinal disorders. Correlations between seizure, psychiatric disorders, and gastrointestinal disorders are validated on a sample from a second hospital. (Read the full article)

Infants with trisomy 13 (T13) or trisomy 18 (T18) are known to have poor survival. Little is known about how very low birth weight (VLBW) impacts survival and morbidities among infants with T13 or T18.

We examined the risks of mortality and neonatal morbidities for VLBW infants with T13 or T18 compared with VLBW infants with trisomy 21 and VLBW infants without birth defects in a 16-year cohort from the Neonatal Research Network. (Read the full article)

The incidence of invasive candidiasis in hospitalized infants is related to postnatal exposures, but large-scale studies relating the incidence of invasive candidiasis to changes in exposures over time are not available.

This study describes the association between the incidence of invasive candidiasis and changes in use of antifungal prophylaxis, empirical antifungal therapy, and broad-spectrum antibacterial antibiotics over time. (Read the full article)

Little is known about the epidemiology and pathogenicity of Clostridium difficile infection among children, particularly those aged ≤3 years in whom colonization is common and pathogenicity uncertain.

Young children, 1 to 3 years of age, had the highest Clostridium difficile infection incidence. Considering that clinical presentation, outcomes, and disease severity were similar across age groups, C difficile infection in the youngest age group likely represents true disease and not asymptomatic colonization. (Read the full article)