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The Duration Risk in Equities

Equities have rallied since 2017 and yet the expected growth in dividends has declined since then. Is the fall in long-term interest rates to be blamed?




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Mavs owner Mark Cuban sees too much risk in reopening practice facilities

The NBA gave its approval for teams to reopen their practice facilities on a limited basis on Friday, but only three teams have confirmed they will. And Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is in no hurry for his team to join the list.



  • Sports/Basketball/NBA

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Evacuation order and alert issued due to landslide risk in Quesnel, B.C., area

An evacuation order and alert have been issued for eight properties near Quesnel, British Columbia, due to risk of a landslide from flooding.



  • News/Canada/British Columbia

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Progress in adopting the Principles for effective risk data aggregation and risk reporting

This report outlines the progress made by banks in implementing the Basel Committee's Principles for effective risk data aggregation and risk reporting ("the Principles" or "BCBS 239")1 based on supervisors' assessments conducted in 2019.




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Basel Committee publishes stocktake report on climate-related financial risk initiatives

BCBS Press release "Basel Committee publishes stocktake report on climate-related financial risk initiatives'", 30 April 2020




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Climate-related financial risks: a survey on current initiatives

This report summarises the main results of a stocktake conducted by the Basel Committee of its members' initiatives on climate-related financial risks.




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The Duration Risk in Equities

Equities have rallied since 2017 and yet the expected growth in dividends has declined since then. Is the fall in long-term interest rates to be blamed?




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The making of a cyber crash: a conceptual model for systemic risk in the financial sector

European Systemic Risk Board Occasional Papers by Greg Ros




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Measuring Systemic Risk: A Quantile Factor Analysis

Central Bank of Chile Working Papers by Andrés Sagner




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Many of Bangladesh's indigenous out of work and at risk, advocates warn

CNA Staff, Apr 21, 2020 / 02:19 pm (CNA).- Indigenous rights groups are warning that many families in Bangladesh who have lost jobs and income because of the coronavirus pandemic are not yet receiving aid, and many are facing starvation.

A joint statement from three Bangladeshi indigenous rights groups warns that the vast majority of those living in rural areas are day laborers, and are now out of work.

Bangladesh, a low lying county situated just east of India, has 3,400 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and has recorded 110 deaths. Officials say actual numbers are likely higher due to a lack of testing kits.

Romen Kisku, a Catholic father of five and member of the Santal ethnic group, told UCA News that his family has received a small amount of food aid from a charity, but he worries it will not be enough to feed his 10-member family. He and his family live in the northern region of Dinajpur, and he said he hopes to find work in a neighboring region as a paddy farmer.

“Three men of our family are day laborers and our income pays for everything. Now we cannot go to work and government aid has not reached us. The minimal aid was too little for our family, so we have to go on starving if things don’t improve,” Kisku told UCA News.

Ethnic-minority Santal people live mostly in northwestern Bangladesh as well as parts of India and Nepal. About eight percent are Christian.

Bangladesh has a low percentage of Catholics— as low as 0.3% in some areas— and the Catholic aid group Caritas is struggling to raise funds for the poor.

“We have made an appeal to people in our parishes and areas, so they come up with whatever they can to assist those having hard times during this crisis. The suffering of people will intensify if the crisis lingers, so we need to help people any way possible,” Bishop Sebastian Tudu of Dinajpur told UCA News.

Though the government and charitable organizations are mobilizing to provide relief, the remoteness of the areas where many indigenous people live mean that in some areas, very few families have yet received government assistance.

Though Catholic Relief Services is active in providing aid in refugee camps in Bangladesh, a CRS spokesperson confirmed to CNA that CRS is not currently active in the Dinajpur region.

The branch of Caritas in the southeastern port city of Chittagong has taken two emergency cash handouts of 2,250 taka (US$27) and 1,547 taka to support 950 families on the hills, UCA News reported.

Bangladesh’s government started food relief and subsidized food sales at the end of March, aiming to support about 50 million poor and needy people across the country, UCA News reports.

Bangladesh imposed a nationwide lockdown March 26, with a restriction of no more than five people allowed to congregate in prayer in a mosque, the New York Post reported. Despite this, on April 18 a crowd of some 100,000 people gathered for a funeral in Brahmanbaria, in the eastern part of the country.



  • Asia - Pacific

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Red Cell Transfusion and Thrombotic Risk in Children




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Perspectives on Informed Consent Practices for Minimal-Risk Research Involving Foster Youth




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Scotland at risk of missing affordable homes target as Brexit bites

SCOTLAND is struggling to meet its targets for new affordable homes despite government funding.




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Martin Hannan: When is watching a game worth risking your life over?

WITH the usual proviso that nothing, but nothing, in sport is in any way important when human lives are at stake due to coronavirus, nevertheless I do think it is time for some realism to surface in rugby – and other sports I could name.




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Coronavirus: 'Low inherent risk' anglers fish for a way back onto Scottish waters

SCOTLAND's foremost angling organisation has set out a bid to allow people to take part in the sport as lockdown measures are eased saying it carries a "low inherent potential" for Covid-19 transmission.




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Equity-Focused Leadership Is Risky. Do It Anyway

As superintendents, we must make the system work for all students—however socially, politically, and professionally dangerous it may be, writes Demond A. Means.




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K-12 Tech Leaders Prioritize Cybersecurity, But Many Underestimate Risks, Survey Says

Less than 20 percent of respondents to a new CoSN survey marked any items on a list of cybersecurity threats as "high-risk" from their perspective.




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The Risks of Ed-Tech Entrepreneurship, Part 2

While ed-tech entrepreneurship may be less risky than other sectors, there are still many uncertainties to be aware of. Financial, technology, and market sectors are all areas for deep thought and caution.




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The Risks of Ed-Tech Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is often considered a "risky" endeavor. But I think ed-tech startups are often less risky that startups in other industries.




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Fish-Oil Fat Emulsion Supplementation May Reduce the Risk of Severe Retinopathy in VLBW Infants

Docosahexaenoic acid is important for fetal brain development and visual acuity in infants. Infants born prematurely are at particular risk for docosahexaenoic acid insufficiency because they may not have benefited from a full trimester of the mother's lipid stores.

This is the first study in which the administration of fish-oil lipid emulsion in very low birth weight infants from the first day of life is described. The influence of fish-oil lipid emulsion on the regression of retinopathy seems to be worthy of further investigation. (Read the full article)




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A Prospective Study of the Effects of Optimism on Adolescent Health Risks

Optimism later in life is protective against a range of health problems. It has commonly been a focus in adolescent mental health promotion. Cross-sectional studies suggest a protective effect against adolescent health risks, but prospective studies have been lacking.

Optimism is somewhat protective against adolescent health risks; the strongest effect was seen against the onset of new depressive symptoms. Its protective effect against heavier substance use and antisocial behavior was modest and only for the highest categories compared to the lowest. Promoting optimism along with other positive aspects of psychological and emotional style has a role in mental health promotion that is likely to be enhanced if an intervention also addresses risk and protective factors in an adolescent's social context. (Read the full article)




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Water Consumption and Use, Trihalomethane Exposure, and the Risk of Hypospadias

Few epidemiological studies, which included varied exposure assessment, have investigated the relation between drinking-water–disinfection byproducts such as trihalomethanes and hypospadias, and their results have been inconclusive.

Little evidence was found for an association between trihalomethanes and hypospadias, but a novel association between water consumption and hypospadias was found. Factors that influence maternal water consumption, or other contaminants in tap or bottled water, might explain this finding. (Read the full article)




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Clustering of Risk Factors: A Simple Method of Detecting Cardiovascular Disease in Youth

Cardiovascular risk factors predict the development of premature atherosclerosis. As the number of risk factors increases, so does the extent of these lesions. Assessment of cardiovascular risk factors is an accepted practice in adults but is not used in pediatrics.

In this study, the authors discuss how the presence of ≥2 cardiovascular risk factors is associated with vascular changes in adolescents. The findings were compared with the Patholobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth risk score to demonstrate that a simple method of clustering is a reliable tool to use in clinical practice. (Read the full article)




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Risk Stratification of Children Being Evaluated for Intussusception

Intussusception is the most common cause of intestinal obstruction in young children. To date, there have been no prospective studies that have been able to develop a reliable clinical prediction model to determine which patients are at low risk for intussusception.

This study is the largest prospective cohort study to date to evaluate children with possible intussusception. It includes both univariate and multivariate analyses to develop clinical prediction models for patients at low risk for intussusception. (Read the full article)




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Childhood Cumulative Risk and Obesity: The Mediating Role of Self-Regulatory Ability

Pediatric weight gain is a critical aspect of the obesity epidemic. Chronic stress produces physiologic perturbations capable of altering brain mechanisms related to eating as well as those implicated in self-regulatory behaviors.

We show that early childhood risk exposures are associated with weight gain in adolescence, independent of childhood BMI. We also find that deficiencies in self-regulatory processes help explain the link between chronic stress and adiposity. (Read the full article)




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Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Symptomatic Pediatric Gallbladder Disease

Gallbladder disease in children is an evolving entity and studies suggest an increasing frequency of symptomatic pediatric gallbladder disease and resultant cholecystectomies.

Hispanic ethnicity and obesity are epidemiologically significant risk factors for symptomatic gallbladder disease in the pediatric population. (Read the full article)




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Histologic Chorioamnionitis Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Late-Onset Sepsis in Preterm Infants

Chorioamnionitis is associated with preterm birth and an increased risk of common adverse outcomes of prematurity, including early-onset sepsis and neurodevelopmental impairment. The effect of chorioamnionitis on postnatal immune function and risk of late-onset infection is unknown.

Chorioamnionitis, which complicates many preterm births, is independently associated with a significantly reduced risk of late-onset sepsis in preterm infants. The findings suggest that chorioamnionitis may modulate the development of postnatal immunity in a clinically significant manner. (Read the full article)




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Quality of Early Maternal-Child Relationship and Risk of Adolescent Obesity

The quality of the relationship between mother and child affects the child’s neurodevelopment, emotion regulation, and stress response. Extreme or sustained stress responses are associated with dysregulation of physiologic systems involved in energy balance, which could lead to obesity.

The prevalence of obesity in adolescence was more than twice as high among those youth who in early childhood had poor-quality relationships with their mothers compared with those with better relationships. (Read the full article)




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The Risk of Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura After Vaccination in Children and Adolescents

Studies on vaccine safety are crucial to the ongoing success of our national immunization program. ITP has a known association with MMR in young children, occurring in 1 in 40 000 doses. The risk after other childhood vaccines is unknown.

This study found no increased risk of ITP after vaccines other than MMR in young children, confirmed an association of ITP with MMR, and also found that ITP may occur after certain other vaccines in older children. (Read the full article)




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Maternal Asthma Medication Use and the Risk of Selected Birth Defects

Asthma is a common obstructive pulmonary disease experienced during pregnancy. Clinical guidelines recommend women with asthma maintain asthma medication use during pregnancy. Epidemiologic studies suggest an association between several types of defects and asthma or asthma medication use during pregnancy.

Data from a large, population-based, multicenter, case-control study was used. This provides the opportunity to study specific birth defects with minimal heterogeneity in case groups, as well as control for a variety of potential confounders. (Read the full article)




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Early Childhood Family Intervention and Long-term Obesity Prevention Among High-risk Minority Youth

The evidence base for obesity prevention is extremely limited. Although minority youth are at higher risk of obesity, and early childhood is a critical period for prevention, only 1 program has demonstrated sustained effects on obesity in young minority children.

Among youth at high risk for obesity based on income, minority status, and child behavior problems, early intervention that promotes effective parenting led to meaningful differences in obesity in preadolescence. Early family intervention is an innovative and promising approach. (Read the full article)




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Childhood Gender Nonconformity: A Risk Indicator for Childhood Abuse and Posttraumatic Stress in Youth

Childhood gender nonconformity has been associated with poorer relationships with parents, but it is unknown if childhood gender nonconformity is associated with childhood abuse or with posttraumatic stress disorder.

We identify gender nonconformity before age 11 years as a risk indicator for physical, sexual, and psychological abuse in childhood and lifetime probable posttraumatic stress disorder in youth. (Read the full article)




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Shifts in BMI Category and Associated Cardiometabolic Risk: Prospective Results From HEALTHY Study

Changes in BMI category appear to be common in young children and are associated with cardiometabolic risk in cross-sectional studies. However, there are few longitudinal studies and little information from multiethnic samples of US middle school children.

Findings demonstrate that shifts in BMI category are common in middle-school-aged children and associated with clinically meaningful changes in cardiometabolic risk factors. Programs to promote decreases in BMI, prevent increases, and moderate risk are indicated. (Read the full article)




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Risk Factor Changes for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome After Initiation of Back-to-Sleep Campaign

Prone sleep, bed-sharing, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and prematurity increase the risk of sudden infant death syndrome. The sudden infant death syndrome rate initially declined dramatically after the initiation of the US Back-to-Sleep campaign in 1994, but subsequently plateaued.

The risk profile has changed since the Back-to-Sleep campaign; the prevalence of simultaneous risks has remained consistent. Intrinsic and extrinsic risks provide unification into 1 underlying triple-risk model and insights into potential underlying mechanisms. (Read the full article)




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Maternal Metabolic Conditions and Risk for Autism and Other Neurodevelopmental Disorders

Diabetes during pregnancy has been associated with general development impairments in offspring; however, associations between autism and maternal diabetes have been inconsistent. Few studies have examined related conditions accompanied by underlying increased insulin resistance and their association with developmental outcomes.

This population-based study in young children provides evidence that maternal metabolic conditions are a risk factor for autism, developmental delay without autistic symptoms, and impairments in several domains of development, particularly expressive language, after adjusting for sociodemographic and other characteristics. (Read the full article)




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Intakes of Alcohol and Folate During Adolescence and Risk of Proliferative Benign Breast Disease

Alcohol consumption during adolescence and early adulthood has been associated with an increased risk of biopsy-confirmed benign breast disease (BBD), an established risk factor of breast cancer.

This is the first study to analyze the association between adolescent alcohol consumption and risk of biopsy-confirmed proliferative BBD by adolescent folate intake. The result provides no evidence for protective effects of adolescent folate intake on risk of alcohol-associated BBD. (Read the full article)




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Health Risks of Oregon Eighth-Grade Participants in the "Choking Game": Results From a Population-Based Survey

Estimates of youth participation in strangulation activity, commonly referred to as the "choking game," range from 5% to 11%. Previous studies have documented correlations between youth choking game participation and health risks such as substance use and mental health issues.

Among Oregon eighth-graders surveyed, >6% had ever participated in the choking game. Participation was linked to poor nutrition and gambling among females, exposure to violence among males, and sexual activity and substance use among both genders. (Read the full article)




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Risk Factors for Hospitalization With Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in Children in Rural Alaska

Rural Alaska children have high rates of hospitalization with lower respiratory tract infections from a variety of pathogens. Past studies of risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus infection associated medically high-risk status, household crowding, and infant feeding practices with hospitalization.

This study reveals the importance of medically high-risk status and infant feeding practices as important factors in respiratory hospitalization. In addition, we identified woodstove use and the absence of 2 or more sinks in household as risk factors for hospitalization. (Read the full article)




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Cumulative Social Risk and Obesity in Early Childhood

Cumulative social factors in childhood have been associated with obesity in adulthood. Little is known regarding the role of accumulation of social stressors and obesity in early life.

Cumulative social adversities were associated with increased odds of early-onset obesity among girls. In addition, those with a higher number of stressors at a single time period had elevated odds for obesity by 5 years of age. (Read the full article)




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Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Among US Adolescents, 1999-2008

Overweight and obese children have a higher prevalence of several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. There is growing evidence demonstrating that CVD risk factors present during childhood persist into adulthood.

US adolescents had no significant change in prehypertension/hypertension and borderline-high/ high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol prevalence from 1999–2000 to 2007–2008; however, prediabetes/diabetes increased by 14%. (Read the full article)




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Risky Music-Listening Behaviors and Associated Health-Risk Behaviors

Traditional health-risk behaviors, such as problem drinking, smoking, marijuana use, and unsafe sexual behavior are interrelated and not isolated events in the life of adolescents. New health-risk behaviors are emerging: risky music-listening behaviors, which may induce hearing loss.

Risky music-listening behaviors are highly associated with traditional health-risk behaviors. Risky MP3-player listeners are often cannabis users. Frequent visitors of music venues are less often cannabis users, but are often binge drinkers and have sexual intercourse without using a condom. (Read the full article)




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Missed Opportunities in the Referral of High-Risk Infants to Early Intervention

Neonatal follow-up programs are designed in part to identify developmental delays among high-risk infants after NICU hospitalization and make referrals to state-funded early intervention. Early intervention has been shown to benefit children with developmental delays.

Many high-risk infants demonstrating developmental delays at neonatal follow-up programs are not referred to early intervention. Subspecialty clinics share responsibility with the medical home in referring children from birth through three years with developmental problems to early intervention services. (Read the full article)




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A 4-Year Exercise Program in Children Increases Bone Mass Without Increasing Fracture Risk

Observation studies and short-term prospective intervention studies have shown that physical activity positively affects the accrual of bone mass and size during growth; however, fracture risk has not been evaluated.

This study reports the long-term results of a prospective intervention with increased physical activity at a population-based level and for the first time evaluated the clinical relevant end point, fracture risk. (Read the full article)




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Early Vaccinations Are Not Risk Factors for Celiac Disease

Celiac disease is an immunologic disorder with autoimmune features. Sweden experienced an epidemic of celiac disease in infants (1984–1996). Early vaccinations might influence the risk for autoimmune diseases, and could potentially have contributed to celiac disease risk and the epidemic.

Early vaccinations within the national Swedish program are not risk factors for celiac disease, nor do changes over time contribute to explaining the Swedish epidemic. A protective effect by vaccination against tuberculosis (bacillus Calmette-Guérin) is suggested. (Read the full article)




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Caffeine Intake During Pregnancy and Risk of Problem Behavior in 5- to 6-Year-Old Children

In humans, evidence for an association between maternal caffeine intake during pregnancy and alterations in fetal brain development with persistent alterations in the offspring’s brain and behavior in later life is inconclusive.

Prenatal caffeine intake is not associated with a higher risk for behavior problems in young children. Results do not provide evidence to advise pregnant women to reduce their caffeine intake to prevent problem behavior in their children. (Read the full article)




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Risk Factors for In-Hospital Mortality Among Children With Tuberculosis: The 25-Year Experience in Peru

Because most childhood tuberculosis cases are sputum smear-negative, diagnosis relies largely upon clinical presentation, tuberculin skin testing, and chest radiograph. Diagnostic limitations contribute to treatment delays and high mortality. However, childhood tuberculosis (TB) mortality risk factors are not well documented.

This study demonstrates that false-negative TST is common in children with active TB and is associated with increased risk of death. A negative TST should not delay anti-TB therapy. Improved diagnostic modalities are urgently needed in resource-limited settings. (Read the full article)




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Randomized Trial of Vitamin D Supplementation and Risk of Acute Respiratory Tract Infection in Mongolia

A growing number of epidemiologic studies suggest that individuals with lower vitamin D levels are at higher risk of acute respiratory tract infection. Randomized controlled trials are needed to determine if vitamin D supplementation would decrease this risk.

In a randomized controlled trial of 247 Mongolian children with vitamin D deficiency in winter, with double-blinding and 99% follow-up, vitamin D supplementation significantly reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infections. (Read the full article)




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Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia in the Low-Intermediate-Risk Category on the Bilirubin Nomogram

The higher the predischarge bilirubin percentile reading on the hour of life–specific nomogram, the higher becomes that infant's risk of developing significant hyperbilirubinemia. Neonates in the low-risk zones (≤75th percentile) have a low risk of developing hyperbilirubinemia.

Thirty-two percent of newborns readmitted for hyperbilirubinemia had low-risk zone predischarge bilirubin percentile values, predominantly in the intermediate low-risk zone (41st–75th percentile). The intermediate low-risk zone may not be as low risk as previously thought. (Read the full article)




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Risk Adjustment for Neonatal Surgery: A Method for Comparison of In-Hospital Mortality

Evaluation of neonatal surgical outcomes is necessary to guide improvements in the quality of care. Meaningful comparisons must adjust for factors that alter outcomes independent of the surgical procedures.

Herein is described a method that permits risk adjustment for the broad range of noncardiac neonatal surgery, regardless of gestational age, to permit useful comparisons for quality improvement. (Read the full article)




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Bottle-feeding and the Risk of Pyloric Stenosis

Pyloric stenosis is the most common condition requiring surgery in infants. It is typically not present at birth but develops within the first weeks after birth. The etiology is largely unknown, but bottle-feeding has been suggested as a risk factor.

This study demonstrated that bottle-fed infants had a 4.6-fold increased risk of developing pyloric stenosis compared with infants who were not bottle-fed. The result adds to the evidence supporting the advantage of exclusive breastfeeding in the first months after birth. (Read the full article)