The phrase ‘emerging risk’ has been widely used in scientific and business communities, but without consensus on how to define and govern such a risk. A new study proposes that risk emergence goes through four states, from ‘unknown unknowns’ to risks that are fully in the public domain. Understanding emergence as a process can help decision makers detect and manage risks on the basis of scientific evidence.

Over 8% of land in Europe could be at moderate-to-high risk of wind-driven soil erosion, a new study has estimated. In the first assessment of its kind, the researchers produced maps which show wind erosion risk across 36 countries. This information could help guide actions to tackle land degradation.

An analysis of flash flood forecasting in Europe has produced recommendations for emergency planners and others to improve flood risk management in vulnerable regions. In particular, the researchers recommend improved data collection and sharing, a common European policy for flash flood forecasting, and that local risk management recognises the specific challenges presented by flash floods.

Researchers have created a simple tool to analyse the risk of river flooding across almost all of Europe, and to estimate the associated economic losses. They found that Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Austria and the UK are the regions and countries most at threat.

Effective flood-risk communications should include specific information on how householders can protect themselves and their property against flooding, a recent Dutch study concludes. The researchers’ evaluation of communication strategies also highlights an important role for social media in spreading messages about flood risk and protection.

Effective flood-risk management requires accurate risk-analysis models. Conventional analysis approaches, however, are based on the evaluation of spatially homogenous scenarios, which do not account for variation in flooding across a river reach/ region. Since flood events are often spatially heterogeneous (i.e. unevenly distributed), this paves the way for error. Now, scientists have developed a novel framework for risk analysis that accounts for their heterogeneity, and successfully demonstrated the accuracy of the approach by applying it in a proof-of-concept exercise in Vorarlberg, Austria. By facilitating improved prediction and quantification of flood events, this model is likely to inform future flood-risk management and related decision-making.

28 Aug 2016: The Mediterranean diet is associated with a reduced risk of death in patients with a history of cardiovascular disease, according to results from the observational Moli-sani study presented at ESC Congress 2016 today.1

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Patients with cancer have heightened risks of unintentional and intentional injuries during the diagnostic process, reveal findings from a large study published by The BMJ today.

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Scientists involved in a pan-European project to develop better methods of risk assessment say maps that show such cumulative risks geographically are easy to interpret and should be considered as practical tools for conveying risk information to decision makers and the general public.

Increasing noise levels are a global environmental concern, and have been linked to important health issues, such as heart disease and cognitive development. New Danish research has now shown that it is also associated with an increased risk of diabetes.

People exposed to fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone pollution are at increased risk of suffering out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, according to a recent Finnish study. Cardiac arrest is more likely within 24 hours after exposure to PM2.5 and up to several days after exposure to ozone.

Increasing noise levels are a global environmental concern, and have been linked to important health issues, such as heart disease and cognitive development. New Danish research has now shown that it is also associated with an increased risk of diabetes.

The noise generated by commercial shipping can impair the ability of the critically endangered European eel to avoid predators, new research has found. The results show that marine noise can have serious effects on these animals with potentially fatal consequences.

A recent study has analysed risks to European renewable industries from the Chinese supply of critical raw materials. The offshore wind sector was found to be the most vulnerable of the renewable industries to supply risks. EU and industry strategies should be able to deal with these supply risks in the short term, but there are potential long-term risks to solar and wind sectors. The development of alternative technologies less reliant on these raw materials, and methods to recycle these materials is, therefore, a priority.

Risk analysis and technology assessment (RATA) involves assessing the possible human, environmental and societal risks of a novel technology at various stages of the development process. However, best practices for RATA’s successful incorporation into large-scale research programmes are still in development. In a recent study, researchers present a case study of their efforts to bring RATA into practice within a large Dutch nanotechnology consortium. By outlining the procedures and products they developed and reflecting on their experiences, the researchers provide valuable insights for the future integration of RATA in technology development projects. The findings are relevant to stakeholders with an interest in supporting the design of key enabling technologies, including governmental agencies and industrial partners.

Continuing economic development and public health measures are likely to outweigh the impact of climate change on malaria prevalence, according to new research. The research found that the prevalence of malaria has declined over the past century despite rising temperatures.

The risk of contamination of ground and surface waters and leakage of methane emissions remain key concerns associated with shale gas projects, according to a recent assessment. This is particularly the case if monitoring and regulatory systems are not rigorously enforced. In addition, investment in shale gas could divert resources needed to develop a low-carbon economy, suggest the report’s authors.

Elderly people are at particular risk from the damaging health effects of hot summers in European Mediterranean cities, such as Athens, Barcelona and Lisbon, but in North African and Middle-Eastern Mediterranean cities, such as Tunis and Tel-Aviv, younger people are more vulnerable, a recent study concludes. This is particularly concerning, the researchers suggest, given the insufficient resources available to deal with this public health problem in some countries.

Science not communicated is said to be science not done, but journalists’ portrayal of scientific findings can sometimes have a negative impact on public perceptions of science and even create false controversy. This study examined how presenting opposing scientific viewpoints affects public perceptions of environmental risk.

The risk of drought in the Norrström drainage basin, Sweden, increased during the 20th century, a new study has found. As the frequency of the dry periods increased, less water was available in the landscape for agriculture and for the resupply of groundwater — despite an increase in precipitation in the area over the same period. The researchers reached this conclusion after screening soil moisture conditions in the basin over the course of the century.

Glaciers are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study focused on hanging glaciers in the French Alps, where warming is increasing the risk of glaciers collapsing. The authors applied a state-of-the-art numerical model to a particularly hazardous glacier in Mont Blanc to simulate how it will respond to climate change. The results suggest the glacier may become unstable in the current century, posing a risk to the inhabitants of the valley below.

Floods are devastating natural hazards, which can cause loss of life and substantial damage to buildings and other infrastructure. Assessing future flood risk is complicated by the influence of climate change, land-use change and economic development in an area. A study on an Alpine valley suggests that land- use change and urbanisation will affect future flood risk by 2030 more than climate change, but risks can be reduced by adopting low-cost adaptation strategies, such as building restrictions in flood-prone areas and residents taking their own precautions against flooding.

Fishing in most of Norway’s counties is at ‘moderate’ to ‘high’ risk from ocean acidification, concludes a new study. The researchers reached this conclusion with the use of an integrated risk-assessment method that accounts for environmental, economic and social factors within the 19 counties. They call for immediate action to protect the fishing industry against the effects of ocean acidification.

A recent overview and analysis shows that increasing amounts of gas drilling at Groningen, the largest gas field in Europe, led to a dramatic rise in regional earthquakes between 2001 and 2013. After a reduction in extraction was introduced by the Dutch Government, earthquake numbers started to fall. Statistical analysis reveals that if high extraction rates were resumed, about 35 earthquakes, with a magnitude (M) of over 1.5 on the Richter scale, might occur annually from the year 2021 onwards, including four with a damaging magnitude of over 2.5.

Spanish medical and public health researchers have found no clear evidence for increased heavy metal levels in adults living near a recently-built urban solid waste incinerator over two years of operation. Concentrations of lead, chromium and mercury in blood and urine samples taken around the plant were not significantly higher than for populations who lived further away.

Recycling ships for scrap is a known asbestos exposure hazard, yet this study is one of few to trace asbestos-related cancer rates in shipbreaking workers. The results, obtained from former shipbreakers in Taiwan, show higher rates of cancer overall, especially oesophageal and lung cancers.

Regular use of green space in a city setting may be linked to reduced risk of heart disease, a new Lithuanian study suggests. The authors found that people who lived closer to green spaces suffered fewer symptoms of heart disease over a four-year period, and that regular park users were at lower risk based on factors such as weight, physical activity and diabetes.

Living near to green spaces may reduce likelihood of death due to any cause, and especially due to cardiovascular disease, according to a new study. The review is the first to systematically evaluate the evidence linking green spaces to risk of death.

Satellite observations are valuable aids to detect and monitor fire activity. A recent study has investigated how satellite images of fire activity, together with information on vegetation cover and fire risk associated with long and short-term atmospheric conditions could be used to help authorities better manage the risk of wildfires in Mediterranean Europe.

A new study has found evidence for lung toxicity of different forms of ‘cellulose nanocrystals’ (CNCs) in mice. The study suggests that physical characteristics, such as length, of the CNC relates to the type of effect it has on the lung. These nanosized crystals, made from plant-derived materials, are increasingly being used in novel applications, such as cleaning up oil spills in water and flexible electronic displays, and consumer products, which raises concerns about their potential health impacts.

A new oil-spill risk-management system has been developed by researchers, which shows the likely effects of a coastal spill on the environment and economic activities for specific locations. It provides maps of oil-spill risk through a web portal and could help decision makers and emergency-response authorities protect the local environment and businesses through targeted and efficient planning and responses.

A new screening tool to assess the potential seismic risks (earthquake activity) from deep geothermal energy projects has been outlined in a recent study. The tool provides categories of seismicity risk for projects, which are dependent on factors including geological aspects, as well as social concern and location in relation to urban areas.

A new review of the potential uses of visual soil evaluation (VSE) shows how this tool can be used to indicate risks of erosion, compaction, greenhouse gas emission or storage and surface-water run-off. Assessing soils in this way is not only useful for agriculture, but has implications for the wider environment, due to the vital role that soil plays in the provision of ecosystem services, for example as a habitat for biodiversity and as a carbon sink.

Assessment (ERA), each with different goals. The researchers find that overlaps between the three assessments could be combined to create a more comprehensive form of ERA, usable by regulators and environmental decision makers.

The Art of Connecting is Rethinking the Risk. Be clear on where you stand with BT Security

Reducing forest fire risk within a tight budget can be successfully achieved, according to researchers. The study simulated the economic and fire risk effects of five management plans and found that a combination of removing low level trees and selective positioning of woodland produced the most economic and least destructive results

A new study has identified the factors that cause deterioration of Mediterranean pine plantations, to develop a model of that can predict the risk of forest decline to help inform forests management strategies under a changing climate. It suggests that loss of needles is the most useful predictor of decline for the species studied.

Understanding the social context of Swedish forestry is key to understanding how the sector could be persuaded to move beyond ‘business-as-usual’ practices, to prepare for future climate risks, argues a new study. Using an approach that provides insights for future behavioural change more widely, the researchers explore the influences on forest managers’ behaviour, and highlight certification schemes as one important driver of actions which make forests better adapted to climate change. Knowledge on climate change risks and actions in itself is not enough to change behaviour, the study finds. For many environmentalists it may seem ‘logical’ for forestry to adapt now to future climate change: it epitomises an industry where actions taken today will determine long-term development, given that trees will not be harvested until 70–90 years after planting. However, the sector has taken limited actions to adapt, despite an abundance of available information on the impacts of climate change — such as storms, drought and changes in insect population.

Gaul, Gilbert M., author

How can stakeholders best be involved in the implementation of the EU Floods Directive? According to recent research examining Germany as a case study, three types of strategy are being pursued across the country’s 16 federal states: the first draws on Water Framework Directive (WFD) procedures, the second meets only minimum requirements for participation and the third involves stakeholders more intensively.

We need a better understanding of how the public perceive the risks of population growth, a new discussion paper argues. Research into public perceptions of the environmental and social challenges of population growth could guide behavioural-change communications to help limit growth and manage the difficulties. Specific communication issues include how to convey statistical information and the complex impacts of population growth.

A new tool has been developed to map the sensitivity of seabirds to offshore wind farm development. The Seabird Mapping and Sensitivity Tool (SeaMaST), currently for use in English waters, combines information on the sensitivity of seabird species to wind turbines with data on the birds’ distribution. It provides maps that can be used for both the offshore wind farm industry and marine spatial planning.

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and occurrence of regional floods in Europe. A recent study has examined existing natural and constructed retention (or holding) basins that can be adapted to provide flood defences. As part of the study, a classification system for flood defence structures was developed to help Member States design sustainable flood risk management plans.

New research in the Netherlands indicates that spatial planning to manage flood risk, such as the elevation of residential areas and the exclusion of vulnerable land uses from flood-prone areas, is underused. Its use appears to depend on governmental requirements, previous experience of flooding and previous experience of using spatial planning as a mitigation strategy.

Long-term, low level exposure to arsenic in drinking water may increase a person’s risk of skin cancer, according to a new study conducted in Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. The study suggests that levels of inorganic arsenic previously thought to be harmless may have a carcinogenic effect over a longer period of time.

A new study provides the first global estimates of river and coastal flooding, highlighting past and future trends, and indicates that Asia and Europe are two of the regions that are worst affected. The researchers suggest that their methods could be useful in developing a global framework for flood risk assessment.

The majority of respondents to a recent, large-scale European survey claim not to have prepared themselves for floods, even though they know their property is at risk of flooding and they are worried about the effects. A set of key recommendations for flood communications wrer developed from the survey’s findings, intended to improve community preparedness as part of effective flood management plans.

A tool to calculate the risk of food and waterborne diseases under current or future climate change conditions has been presented in a recent study. Free to use, the online tool can help guide climate change adaptation, such as improvements to water management, by estimating the likelihood of contracting four diseases under a range of environmental conditions.

Climate change may increase the amount of pathogens entering bathing waters in some areas, finds a new study. The research, carried out in a lagoon in the Baltic Sea, found that, although higher temperatures can reduce microorganism populations, this is likely to be outweighed by contamination due to runoff caused by increased rainfall. The authors are currently developing a system for alerting local authorities and the public to potentially hazardous bathing water.