ue

Varvel: How to draw the Democrats' blue wave

Watch Gary Varvel's time lapse video of his process of drawing the blue wave.

      




ue

Cartoonist Gary Varvel: A blue wave in the U.S. House

Could a Trump investigation wash up?

      




ue

Tully: A few questions for bumbling Statehouse Republicans

The need for a special session shows once again that Statehouse Republicans have lost their way.

      




ue

Tully: 8 takeaways from Tuesday's primaries

A lot of interesting storylines emerged from Tuesday's primaries. Here are several of them.

       




ue

Tully: Hard questions surround charging of Noblesville shooter

At what age should crime suspects be charged as adults? It's a question that elicits strong opinions. It's a conversation Indiana needs to have.

       




ue

Brownsburg Little League off to hot start in pool play of state tournament

Brownsburg, Broad Ripple Haverford fighting for spots in Great Lakes Regional.

      




ue

Photos: Oinking Acres Pig Rescue and Sanctuary saves pigs in Brownsburg

Oinking Acres Pig Rescue and Sanctuary is making a difference in the Brownsburg community by saving more than 150 potbellied pigs.

       




ue

'You have to show up for the animals': Brownsburg teen's sanctuary has rescued 150+ pigs

Olivia Head discovered there was a high demand for fostering and adopting potbellied pigs. Thus, Oinking Acres Pig Rescue and Sanctuary was born.

       




ue

Could Germany afford Irish, Greek and Portuguese default?

The Western world remains where it has been for some time, delicately poised between anaemic recovery and a shock that could tip us back into economic contraction.

Perhaps the most conspicuous manifestation of the instability is that investors can't make up their minds whether the greater risk comes from surging inflation that stems largely from China's irrepressible growth or the deflationary impact of the unsustainable burden of debt on peripheral and not-so-peripheral eurozone (and other) economies.

And whence do investors flee when it all looks scary and uncertain, especially when there's a heightened probability of specie debasement - to gold, of course.

Unsurprisingly, with the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, implying that a writedown of Greece's sovereign obligations is an option, and with consumer inflation in China hitting 5.4% in March, there has been a flight to the putative safety of precious metal: the gold price hit a new record of $1,480.50 per ounce for June delivery yesterday and could well break through $1,500 within days (say the analysts). Silver is hitting 30-year highs.

In a way, if a sovereign borrower were to turn €100bn of debts (for example) into an obligation to repay 70bn euros, that would be a form of inflation - it has the same economic impact, a degradation of value, for the lender. But it is a localised inflation; only the specific creditors suffer directly (though there may be all sorts of spillover damage for others).

And only this morning there was another blow to the perceived value of a chunk of euro-denominated sovereign obligations. Moody's has downgraded Irish government debt to one level above junk - which is the equivalent of a bookmaker lengthening the odds the on that country's ability to avoid controlled or uncontrolled default.

Some would say that the Irish government has made a start in writing down debt, with the disclosure by the Irish finance minister Michael Noonan yesterday that he would want to impose up to 6bn euros of losses on holders of so-called subordinated loans to Irish banks.

But I suppose the big story in the eurozone, following the decision by the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, is that the region's excessive government and bank debts are more likely to be cut down to manageable size by a restructuring - writedowns of the amount owed - than by generalised inflation that erodes the real value of the principal.

The decision of the ECB to raise rates has to be seen as a policy decision that - in a worst case - a sovereign default by an Ireland, or Greece or Portugal would be less harmful than endemic inflation.

But is that right? How much damage would be wreaked if Greece or Ireland or Portugal attempted to reduce the nominal amount they owe to levels they felt they could afford?

Let's push to one side the reputational and economic costs to those countries - which are quite big things to ignore, by the way - and simply look at the damage to external creditors from a debt write down.

And I am also going to ignore the difference between a planned, consensual reduction in sums owed - a restructuring that takes place with the blessing of the rest of the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund - and a unilateral declaration of de facto bankruptcy by a Greece, Ireland or Portugal (although the shock value of the latter could have much graver consequences for the health of the financial system).

So the first question is how much of the impaired debt is held by institutions and investors that could not afford to take the losses.

Now I hope it isn't naive to assume that pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds and central banks that hold Greek, or Irish or Portuguese debt can cope with losses generated by a debt restructuring.

The reason for mild optimism in that sense is that those who finance investments made by pension funds and insurers - that's you and me by the way - can't get their money out quickly or easily. We simply have to grin and bear the losses to the value of our savings, when the stewards of our savings make lousy investment decisions.

As for hedge funds, when they make bad bets, they can suffer devastating withdrawals of finance by their investors, as and when the returns generated swing from positive to negative. But so long as those hedge funds haven't borrowed too much, so long as they are not too leveraged - and most aren't these days - the impact on the financial system shouldn't be significant.

Finally, if the European Central Bank - for example - ends up incurring big losses on its substantial holdings of Greek, Portuguese and Irish debt, it can always be recapitalised by solvent eurozone nations, notably by Germany and France.

However this is to ignore the node of fragility in the financial system, the faultline - which is the banking industry.

In the financial system's network of interconnecting assets and liabilities, it is the banks as a cluster that always have the potential to amplify the impact of debt writedowns, in a way that can wreak wider havoc.

That's built into their main function, as maturity transformers. Since banks' creditors can always demand their money back at whim, but banks can't retrieve their loans from their creditors (homeowners, businesses, governments), bank losses above the norm can be painful both for banks and for the rest of us.

Any event that undermines confidence in the safety of money lent to banks, will - in a best case - make it more difficult for a bank to borrow and lend, and will, in the worst case, tip the bank into insolvency.


Which, of course, is what we saw on a global systemic scale from the summer of 2007 to the end of 2008. That's when creditors to banks became increasingly anxious about potential losses faced by banks from a great range of loans and investments, starting with US sub-prime.

So what we need to know is whether the banking system could afford losses generated by Greek, Irish and Portuguese defaults.

And to assess this, we need to know how much overseas banks have lent to the governments of these countries and also - probably - to the banks of these countries, in that recent painful experience has told us that bank liabilities become sovereign liabilities, when the going gets tough.

According to the latest published analysis by the Bank for International Settlements (the central bankers'central bank), the total exposure of overseas banks to the governments and banks of Greece, Portugal and Ireland is "just" $362.2bn, or £224bn,

Now let's make the heroic guess that a rational writedown of this debt to a sustainable level would see a third of it written off - which would generate $121bn (£75bn) of losses for banks outside the countries concerned.

If those loans were spread relatively evenly between banks around the world, losses on that scale would be a headache, but nothing worse.

But this tainted cookie doesn't crumble quite like that. Just under a third of the relevant exposure to public sector and banks of the three debt-challenged states, some $118bn, sits on the balance sheets of German banks, according to the BIS.

For all the formidable strength of the German economy, the balance sheets of Germany's banks are by no means the strongest in the world. German banks would not be able to shrug off $39bn or £24bn of potential losses on Portuguese, Irish and Greek loans as a matter of little consequence.

This suggests that it is in the German national interest to help Portugal, Ireland and Greece avoid default.

If you are a Greek, Portuguese or Irish citizen this might bring on something of a wry smile - because you would probably be aware that the more punitive of the bailout terms imposed by the eurozone on these countries (or about to be imposed in Portugal's case) is the expression of a German desire to spank reckless borrowers.

But as I have mentioned here before, reckless lending can be the moral (or immoral) equivalent of reckless borrowing. And German banks were not models of Lutheran prudence in that regard.

If punitive bailout terms make it more likely that Ireland, Greece or Portugal will eventually default, you might wonder whether there has been an element of masochism in the German government's negotiating position.




ue

Avon Schools is closing due to coronavirus concerns. Here's what parents need to know.

After a coronavirus update that a second student was showing symptoms, Avon schools decided to close all buildings ahead of spring break.

      




ue

Indiana schools continue to pay teachers, other staff during coronavirus closures

Indiana schools will be closed until at least May 1, but districts are ensuring employees continue to get paid.

      




ue

An untrue April Fools' Day prank scared students and angered officials

The April Fools' prank is being shared in Indiana and other states across the nation.

      




ue

IU student files lawsuit, seeks reimbursement after class moved online due to coronavirus

An Indiana University student is suing the school, looking for a partial reimbursement on tuition and fees paid for the spring semester.

       




ue

Sintomas do coronavírus: quais os novos sinais de covid-19 que as autoridades americanas acrescentaram à lista

Ao longo da pandemia e com rápida propagação do vírus, que já atingiu mais de 3 milhões de pessoas, tem surgido diversos outros sinais associados à enfermidade, como tremores e calafrios persistentes.




ue

Coronavírus: por que alguns pacientes já recuperados voltam a ter teste positivo para covid-19, segundo OMS

Infectologista da organização explica que células mortas expelidas do pulmão fazem exames darem positivo mais de uma vez — mas não necessariamente quer dizer que a pessoa voltou a ficar infectada pelo coronavírus.




ue

O que se sabe sobre a 'invasão frustrada' que terminou com a prisão de dois americanos na Venezuela

A tentativa resultou em pelo menos oito mortes e a prisão até agora de 13 pessoas, incluindo dois cidadãos americanos.




ue

O sul-coreano que dá abrigo e aula em casa para 10 meninos que fugiram da Coreia do Norte

Kim Tae- hoon, de 45 anos, cuida de 10 meninos norte-coreanos que desertaram do regime repressivo de Pyongyang sem seus pais; o mais novo tem apenas 10 anos e o mais velho, 22.




ue

Os 6 casos envolvendo aliados ou família de Bolsonaro que ficam em evidência com mudança de comando da PF

Ex-juiz da Lava Jato, Moro anunciou sua demissão do governo e acusou o presidente Bolsonaro de tentar interferir em investigações.




ue

Coronavírus: as lições dos países que estão saindo do isolamento

Enquanto em alguns países ainda é impensável abrir empresas e escolas, outros já começaram a retomar a atividade, embora atentos a possíveis surtos.




ue

Coronavírus: 'Países vão ter que se endividar para salvar o emprego e a vida das pessoas', diz presidente do BID

Para Luis Alberto Moreno, pandemia deixou ainda mais evidente a desigualdade da América Latina e mostrou necessidade de se investir na saúde pública regional.




ue

Por que 1ª pessoa infectada por coronavírus no Brasil pode nunca ser descoberta

Especialistas apontam que propagação de vírus pode ter começado antes de 25 de fevereiro, quando primeiro paciente foi diagnosticado com a covid-19.




ue

Coronavírus: o mapa interativo que mostra as medidas e tipos de isolamento adotados na América Latina

Mapa interativo mostra medidas que países vizinhos vêm tomando desde primeiros casos registrados de covid-19 para restringir movimento dos cidadãos.




ue

Família de Aldir Blanc desmente Regina Duarte e diz que recebeu condolências de assessor

Em entrevista à CNN Brasil, secretária Especial da Cultura diz que optou por mandar mensagens privadas às famílias, em vez de fazer homenagens públicas.




ue

Coronavírus: os sete erros que põem Brasil na rota do 'lockdown', segundo especialistas

Gestores já consideram confinamento obrigatório em algumas regiões do país em que sistemas de saúde chegaram a estado de calamidade; segundo especialistas, Brasil ia bem, mas houve erros.




ue

O culto religioso que levou o coronavírus a cidade de MS

Cerimônia religiosa com mais de 30 pessoas foi organizada para receber dupla vinda de Osasco (SP); dias depois, os dois testaram positivo para covid-19.




ue

Coronavírus: os pacientes de covid-19 que não conseguem se livrar da doença

A maioria dos pacientes se recupera rapidamente da covid-19 — os dados sugerem uma média de duas semanas; mas para alguns, os sintomas duram por muito mais tempo.




ue

A descoberta nas fontes termais de Yellowstone, nos EUA, que se tornou chave para os testes da covid-19

Há meio século, Thomas Brock descobriu uma bactéria capaz de sobreviver a altas temperaturas; saiba como essa descoberta cruza com o combate à pandemia do novo coronavírus.




ue

Eta Aquáridas: a impressionante chuva de meteoros do cometa Halley que atinge seu clímax nesta semana

Passagem da Terra pela trilha de resquícios do cometa Halley traz espetáculo de chuva de meteoros todos os anos; países da América do Sul estão entre os melhores posicionados para assistir a esse show noturno.




ue

Coronavírus: as mutações do Sars-Cov-2 que intrigam cientistas

Mudanças naturais na estrutura do vírus podem mudar o quão infeccioso ele é e afetar o desenvolvimento de vacinas.




ue

Fim da quarentena do coronavírus: o que são as 'bolhas sociais', estratégia para o fim do isolamento adotada pela Nova Zelândia e outros países

Um dos países de maior sucesso na luta contra a covid-19, a Nova Zelândia permitiu que seus cidadãos expandissem, de forma limitada, o círculo de contatos; entenda como essa proposta funciona e por que está sendo avaliada por vários governos.




ue

'Parece uma cidade após a guerra': brasileiros em Wuhan descrevem recomeço em primeiro epicentro do coronavírus

Cidade em que pandemia começou, concentrou o maior número de mortes na China e foi a primeira a impor rigoroso lockdown; habitantes, antes acostumados a apertos e aglomerações, agora vivem outra realidade.




ue

Coronavírus: os sete tipos de pessoas que inventam e disseminam fake news

Investigamos centenas de histórias enganosas durante a pandemia. Isso nos deu uma ideia sobre quem está por trás da desinformação - e o que os motiva. Aqui estão sete tipos de pessoas que iniciam e espalham falsidades.




ue

Coronavírus: o mapa que mostra o alcance mundial da doença

Batizada de covid-19, a doença é uma infecção respiratória que começa com sintomas como febre e tosse seca e, ao fim de uma semana, pode provocar falta de ar. Cerca de 80% dos casos são leves, e 5%, graves.




ue

6 momentos dos ataques de Bolsonaro contra a imprensa

Presidente reagiu mal a reportagens ou perguntas sobre o assassinato de Marielle Franco, baixo crescimento do PIB e denúncias contra seus filhos.




ue

Coronavírus: cidade sueca usa cocô de galinha pra conter disseminação da covid-19

Em Lund, gramados de parque receberam fezes para que odor espantasse frequentadores, evitando aglomerações.




ue

A indignação nos EUA pelo assassinato de jovem negro que se exercitava na rua

Ahmaud Arbery estava se exercitando em uma rua residencial em fevereiro quando um ex-policial e seu filho atiraram nele; caso tem causado enorme comoção no país.




ue

Coronavírus: estudo com coquetel de remédios tem bons resultados contra a covid-19, mostra The Lancet

Em estudo clínico randomizado controlado, pessoas que receberam as substâncias interferon beta 1-b, lopinavir-ritonavir e ribavirin tiveram tempo menor para alta e desaparecimento do vírus, na comparação com o grupo controle.




ue

Fila para UTI e falta de testes: os relatos do colapso na saúde que leva o Rio a planejar lockdown

Profissionais de enfermagem relatam falta de equipamentos de proteção, baixas nas equipes e lotação; em ofício, governador Witzel reconhece que esforços contra a covid-19 não foram suficientes e que estuda endurecer confinamento.




ue

'Não quero morrer sem revê-la': as mães que doaram seus filhos no passado e hoje lutam para reencontrá-los

Mulheres que doaram os filhos décadas atrás relatam angústia e tristeza em busca de respostas sobre paradeiros das crianças.




ue

Os 15 capítulos na queda de braço sobre exames de covid-19 de Bolsonaro

O presidente do STJ, João Otávio Noronha, suspendeu decisão que obrigava o presidente Jair Bolsonaro a entregar laudos de exames para detectar se ele foi infectado pelo coronavírus.




ue

Purdue, IU are prioritizing Brandon Newman — but there's a sleeper Big Ten school to watch

Purdue and Indiana have prioritized the Valparaiso product for their 2019 class, but they aren't short on competition.

      




ue

Where IU basketball stands in race for blue-blood darling Matthew Hurt

Right now, there's a 1 in 8 chance the Hoosiers land the consensus top-10 talent out of Minnesota. But they're competing with NCAA royalty.

      




ue

Hunter Dickinson likes that 'big-man factory' Purdue is prioritizing him

Purdue, along with Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Louisville and Kentucky are recruiting Dickinson. Duke is also in the mix but has yet to offer Dickinson.

       




ue

'Mind Your Banners' podcast: Time to answer your questions

IU Insider Zach Osterman sits down with Chronic Hoosier to answer your questions, talking everything from IU sports to Btown eats to memories and more

       




ue

'There's no more important issue in collegiate sports.' How IU, Big Ten approach mental health

Key players at IU: Mental health providers battle depression among athletes

       




ue

Mooresville teammates pass 'eye test' as Purdue builds future offensive line

The Boilermakers have seven commitments in the 2021 recruiting class, including two from Mooresville

       




ue

Preps podcast: Kyle Neddenriep talks basketball with 3 guests

High school basketball players Sincere McMahon and Connor Hickman, and coach Jeremy Rauch talk with IndyStar's Kyle Neddenriep

       




ue

Indiana, once a last bastion of blue laws, considers alcohol sales 'essential'

Indiana was among the last states to give up blue laws. Now, in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, alcohol is considered an essential product

      




ue

Indiana state revenues plunge in March, leading to speculation governor will cut spending

Gov. Eric Holcomb will have tough spending decisions as tax revenues decline amid COVID-19 pandemic.

       




ue

Indiana Democrats to host state convention online due to coronavirus fears

Indiana Democrats announced today they will hold the June 13 state convention virtually.