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The Global Pandemic Has Spawned New Forms of Activism — and They're Flourishing

The authors have identified nearly 100 distinct methods of nonviolent action that include physical, virtual and hybrid actions.




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This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




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The U.S. Is Now Resorting to Plan C

Americans are not going to wait for sufficient testing. So what happens then? Juliette Kayyem describes "opening up" as a high-stakes version of a coloring book. States can use more and more crayons, but the goal is to avoid going over the edges.




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The Arctic is Transforming… Can We?

Joel Clement describes how the Arctic is transforming into a warmer, wetter, and less predictable climate state, what the consequences are for the Arctic's indigenous inhabitants, and what measures can be taken to build resilience.




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Trump Turned the Death Count Into a Story About Himself

Official figures exclude thousands who have died during the pandemic. To draw the right lessons, the United States needs an accurate tally of the victims.




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We Must Prepare for the Next Pandemic

Bruce Schneier explains why accurate information will be just as important as effective treatments when the next pandemic strikes.




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Capital Choices: Sectoral Politics and the Variation of Sovereign Wealth

Capital Choices analyzes the creation of different SWFs from a comparative political economy perspective, arguing that different state-society structures at the sectoral level are the drivers for SWF variation. Juergen Braunstein focuses on the early formation period of SWFs, a critical but little understood area given the high levels of political sensitivity and lack of transparency that surround SWF creation. Braunstein’s novel analytical framework provides practical lessons for the business and finance organizations and policymakers of countries that have created, or are planning to create, SWFs.




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Juergen Braunstein: Can Swiss Afford a State Fund?

The idea of a Swiss sovereign wealth fund (SWF) which could use a part of the country’s massive reserves for investments arose after Switzerland had established in 2011 its currency link to the Euro. Since then various sovereign wealth options have been discussed, from a SWF with a savings mandate to a fund with a strategic investment mandate, a private equity-type fund that invests in technology start-ups and protects against hostile foreign takeovers of strategic companies.




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ISIS is a Survivor

Stephen Walt explains ISIS's ability to hang around despite its unrelieved brutality and its near-total failure to deliver on any its promises.




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Sending Refugees Back Makes the World More Dangerous

Repatriating refugees to dangerous countries violates international law and breeds conflict, instability, and future crises. Regional work visas and long-term integration into host countries are more promising solutions.




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How to Topple Dictators and Transform Society

Nonviolent resistance scholar Erica Chenoweth explains the key ingredients of successful social movements.




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Will the Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?

At the start of this year, things seemed to be looking up for the global economy. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019: from 2.9% to 2.3% in the United States, and from 3.6% to 2.9% globally. Still, there had been no recession, and as recently as January, the International Monetary Fund projected a global growth rebound in 2020. The new coronavirus, COVID-19, has changed all of that.




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Factoring Pandemic Risks into Financial Modelling

Today’s economic crisis leaves us with an unsettling and perplexing regret. Why weren’t financial portfolios already adjusted for risks that stem from health events such as pandemics? After all, financial portfolios are adjusted for liquidity risks, market risks, credit risks, and even operational and political risks.




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Coronavirus Crisis Shows Cracks in the U.S. Governing System, Analysts Say

China’s autocratic system has performed better in some aspects than America’s democracy so far in responding to the coronavirus pandemic, but it is too early to write off the United States despite its many early missteps, analysts at a China Institute event said.




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Coronavirus Blame Game ‘a Childish Distraction’

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, China and the US have been engaged in a wide spectrum of competition that has enhanced their rivalry. We have seen debates and arguments about China's one-party system versus the US democratic system, the China-US blame game, and the ideology-centered media war. How will the pandemic reshape China-US relations? Is cooperation still possible to address the unexpected global challenge posed by the virus? Global Times (GT) reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Graham Allison (Allison), professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?, on these issues.




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China After Coronavirus – Should We Ever Trust Beijing Again?

The coronavirus has exposed even deeper fault lines in the increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship. The U.S. is now taking appropriate measures to mitigate the risk to our national security of relying on China for critical technology, precious metals and medical supplies.




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No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




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So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert.

In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings.




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This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




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Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




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The United States Forgot Its Strategy for Winning Cold Wars

Stephen Walt writes that arguments against U.S. offshore balancing misunderstand history. The strategy that worked against the Soviet Union can work against China.




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Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




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Defense Playbook for Campaigns

The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) is predicated on a single organizing principle: America’s military pre-eminence is rapidly eroding. This is not a new concept. For years, experts have warned that the economic and technological advancements of U.S. adversaries, coupled with the 2008 financial crisis and America’s focus on peripheral conflicts, have caused a decline in America’s military dominance. 

In this context, the advances of near-peer competitors such as China and Russia have created plausible “theories of victory” in potential conflicts across Eastern Europe and East Asia. Competitors’ unaddressed improvements in strategic innovation, economic investment, and dual-use technology increases the risk of conflict and strains the U.S. alliance system. It is urgent that the United States reestablish and maintain credible deterrents against these near-peer competitors. After decades of focusing on post-Cold War ‘shaping’ operations, the American military needs to reinvigorate for full spectrum great power competition.

This report is intended as a blueprint on how to begin that process from graduate students at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. Contained inside are 12 memorandums. Each provides a high-level overview and specific recommendations on a key issue of American defense policy. 




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Joseph S. Nye: U.S. and China Need a More Cooperative Security Stance

Joseph S. Nye: U.S. and China Need a More Cooperative Security Stance




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Spies Are Fighting a Shadow War Against the Coronavirus

Calder Walton describes four ways how intelligence services are certain to contribute to defeating COVID-19 and why pandemic intelligence will become a central part of future U.S. national security.




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No, the Coronavirus Will Not Change the Global Order

Joseph Nye advises skepticism toward claims that the pandemic changes everything. China won't benefit, and the United States will remain preeminent.




or

So Do Morals Matter in U.S. Foreign Policy? I Asked the Expert.

In his new book, Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, Joseph S. Nye developed a scorecard to determine how U.S. presidents since 1945 factored questions of ethics and morality into their foreign policy. In an interview, Henry Farrell asked him a few questions to get to the heart of his findings.




or

This Virus Is Tough, but History Provides Perspective: The 1968 Pandemic and the Vietnam War

Nathaniel L. Moir recounts the events of 1968: The war in Vietnam and extensive civil unrest in the United States — and yet another big problem that made life harder. In 1968, the H3N2 pandemic killed more individuals in the United States than the combined total number of American fatalities during both the Vietnam and Korean Wars.




or

Romney's Reckless China Rhetoric Risks New Cold War

Rachel Esplin Odell argues for a wiser and more conservative strategy that resists the temptation to exaggerate the challenge posed by China.




or

The United States Forgot Its Strategy for Winning Cold Wars

Stephen Walt writes that arguments against U.S. offshore balancing misunderstand history. The strategy that worked against the Soviet Union can work against China.




or

Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam

Nathaniel Moir reviews Maxwell Taylor's Cold War: From Berlin to Vietnam by Ingo Trauschweizer.




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Washington Should Take Action on AI or Stay Out of the Way

Federal and local regulations are part of the solution to tough issues related to Artificial Intelligence, writes K. Gretchen Greene, but no regulatory approach on its own can fully answer these questions today. "Finding answers will require significant investments in research and development, collaboration, negotiation, and experimentation, deep and careful thought across many fields and leadership at all levels, across and between governments. The U.S. federal government is well positioned to lead, but if it won't, it should at least stay out of the way."




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In Memoriam: Patricia McLaughlin

Patricia (Pat) McLaughlin, our beloved colleague and friend at the Center since 2001, passed away in February after a brief illness. Hired as Faculty Assistant to John Holdren, Co-Director of the Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP) nearly 20 years ago, she continued to work with STPP and with John until her illness.




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Bruce Schneier on Cybersecurity in the Age of Coronavirus

Is Zoom secure? What about your home computer? Cyber expert Bruce Schneier says that we all need to be aware of the things cyber criminals thrive on during the confusion caused by coronavirus.




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How to Topple Dictators and Transform Society

Nonviolent resistance scholar Erica Chenoweth explains the key ingredients of successful social movements.




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What Makes for a Moral Foreign Policy?

Joseph Nye's new book rates the efforts of presidents from FDR to Trump.




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Lebanon has formed a controversial new government in a polarised, charged atmosphere, and protesters are not going to be easily pacified by its promises, explains Rami Khoury.

The fourth consecutive month of Lebanon's unprecedented political and economic crisis kicked off this week with three dramatic developments that will interplay in the coming months to define the country's direction for years to come: Escalating protests on the streets, heightened security measures by an increasingly militarising state, and now, a new cabinet of controversial so-called "independent technocrats" led by Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab.

Seeking to increase pressure on the political elite to act responsibly amid inaction vis-a-vis the slow collapse of the economy, the protesters had launched the fourth month of their protest movement, which had begun on 17 October last year, with a 'Week of Anger', stepping up their tactics and targeting banks and government institutions.




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Grow Up About Dictators, America!

The U.S. Democratic primary has exposed an obsession with morality when it comes to foreign policy that is harmful to strategic and moral objectives alike, Stephen M. Walt writes.




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How Do Past Presidents Rank in Foreign Policy?

How do presidents incorporate morality into decisions involving the national interest? Moral considerations explain why Truman, who authorized the use of nuclear weapons in Japan during World War II, later refused General MacArthur's request to use them in China during the Korean War. What is contextual intelligence, and how does it explain why Bush 41 is ranked first in foreign policy, but Bush 43 is found wanting? Is it possible for a president to lie in the service of the public interest? In this episode, Professor Joseph S. Nye considers these questions as he explores the role of morality in presidential decision-making from FDR to Trump.