It was the eighth inning of a late September game against the Dodgers when D-backs right-hander Yoan Lopez showed that not only might he have the stuff to be a future closer, but also the moxie of one as well.

The action mechanisms revealed by the biochemical and structural analyses of replicative and translesion synthesis (TLS) DNA polymerases (Pols) are retained in their cellular roles. In this regard, DNA polymerase θ differs from other Pols in that whereas purified Polθ misincorporates an A opposite 1,N6-ethenodeoxyadenosine (ϵdA) using an abasic-like mode, Polθ performs predominantly error-free TLS in human cells. To test the hypothesis that Polθ adopts a different mechanism for replicating through ϵdA in human cells than in the purified Pol, here we analyze the effects of mutations in the two highly conserved tyrosine residues, Tyr-2387 and Tyr-2391, in the Polθ active site. Our findings that these residues are indispensable for TLS by the purified Pol but are not required in human cells, as well as other findings, provide strong evidence that the Polθ active site is reconfigured in human cells to stabilize ϵdA in the syn conformation for Hoogsteen base pairing with the correct nucleotide. The evidence that a DNA polymerase can configure its active site entirely differently in human cells than in the purified Pol establishes a new paradigm for DNA polymerase function.

A new, point-of-care testing kit for COVID-19 that can deliver results in 15 minutes accurately diagnoses people more than 80 percent of time, an analysis has found.

Rupert Grint, who played Ron Weasley in the "Harry Potter" films, welcomed his first child, a daughter, with his girlfriend, Georgia Groome.

When Warren Buffett announced last week that he will be giving away more than $30 billion to improve health, nutrition and education, people all over America reflected on his remarkable generosity, pondered all the noble things the gift would achieve and asked themselves what they would do if...

In the face of mounting public and political opposition to the war in Iraq, recent reports from the White House suggest that President Bush remains serenely confident.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to confirm a bidirectional association between severe hypoglycemic events (SHEs) and cardiovascular (CV) event risk and to characterize individuals at dual risk.

McMillan, Peter -- Travel.

Berlin : T.C.F. Enslin, 1830.

Berlin : Rucker und Puchler, 1837-1838.

London : Kenny & Co, [1895?]

[Manchester] : School of Nursing Studies, University of Manchester, [1995?]

Laurent Gardes.

Source: Electronic Journal of Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 661--701.

Abstract:
The first part of the paper is dedicated to the construction of a $gamma$ - nonparametric confidence interval for a conditional quantile with a level depending on the sample size. When this level tends to 0 or 1 as the sample size increases, the conditional quantile is said to be extreme and is located in the tail of the conditional distribution. The proposed confidence interval is constructed by approximating the distribution of the order statistics selected with a nearest neighbor approach by a Beta distribution. We show that its coverage probability converges to the preselected probability $gamma $ and its accuracy is illustrated on a simulation study. When the dimension of the covariate increases, the coverage probability of the confidence interval can be very different from $gamma $. This is a well known consequence of the data sparsity especially in the tail of the distribution. In a second part, a dimension reduction procedure is proposed in order to select more appropriate nearest neighbors in the right tail of the distribution and in turn to obtain a better coverage probability for extreme conditional quantiles. This procedure is based on the Tail Conditional Independence assumption introduced in (Gardes, Extremes , pp. 57–95, 18(3) , 2018).

Kazuki Okamura.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 33, Number 3, 586--637.

Abstract:
We consider a random object that is associated with both random walks and random media, specifically, the superposition of a configuration of subcritical Bernoulli percolation on an infinite connected graph and the trace of the simple random walk on the same graph. We investigate asymptotics for the number of vertices of the enlargement of the trace of the walk until a fixed time, when the time tends to infinity. This process is more highly self-interacting than the range of random walk, which yields difficulties. We show a law of large numbers on vertex-transitive transient graphs. We compare the process on a vertex-transitive graph with the process on a finitely modified graph of the original vertex-transitive graph and show their behaviors are similar. We show that the process fluctuates almost surely on a certain non-vertex-transitive graph. On the two-dimensional integer lattice, by investigating the size of the boundary of the trace, we give an estimate for variances of the process implying a law of large numbers. We give an example of a graph with unbounded degrees on which the process behaves in a singular manner. As by-products, some results for the range and the boundary, which will be of independent interest, are obtained.

Gregory J. Matthews, Ofer Harel

Source: Statist. Surv., Volume 5, 1--29.

Abstract:
There is an ever increasing demand from researchers for access to useful microdata files. However, there are also growing concerns regarding the privacy of the individuals contained in the microdata. Ideally, microdata could be released in such a way that a balance between usefulness of the data and privacy is struck. This paper presents a review of proposed methods of statistical disclosure control and techniques for assessing the privacy of such methods under different definitions of disclosure.

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Sparse estimation via penalized likelihood (PL) is now a popular approach to learn the associations among a large set of variables. This paper describes an R package called lslx that implements PL methods for semi-confirmatory structural equation modeling (SEM). In this semi-confirmatory approach, each model parameter can be specified as free/fixed for theory testing, or penalized for exploration. By incorporating either a L1 or minimax concave penalty, the sparsity pattern of the parameter matrix can be efficiently explored. Package lslx minimizes the PL criterion through a quasi-Newton method. The algorithm conducts line search and checks the first-order condition in each iteration to ensure the optimality of the obtained solution. A numerical comparison between competing packages shows that lslx can reliably find PL estimates with the least time. The current package also supports other advanced functionalities, including a two-stage method with auxiliary variables for missing data handling and a reparameterized multi-group SEM to explore population heterogeneity.

François Bachoc, David Preinerstorfer, Lukas Steinberger.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 440--463.

Abstract:
We suggest general methods to construct asymptotically uniformly valid confidence intervals post-model-selection. The constructions are based on principles recently proposed by Berk et al. ( Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 802–837). In particular, the candidate models used can be misspecified, the target of inference is model-specific, and coverage is guaranteed for any data-driven model selection procedure. After developing a general theory, we apply our methods to practically important situations where the candidate set of models, from which a working model is selected, consists of fixed design homoskedastic or heteroskedastic linear models, or of binary regression models with general link functions. In an extensive simulation study, we find that the proposed confidence intervals perform remarkably well, even when compared to existing methods that are tailored only for specific model selection procedures.

Stephen M. S. Lee, Puyudi Yang.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 274--299.

Abstract:
Suppose that a confidence region is desired for a subvector $ heta $ of a multidimensional parameter $xi =( heta ,psi )$, based on an M-estimator $hat{xi }_{n}=(hat{ heta }_{n},hat{psi }_{n})$ calculated from a random sample of size $n$. Under nonstandard conditions $hat{xi }_{n}$ often converges at a nonregular rate $r_{n}$, in which case consistent estimation of the distribution of $r_{n}(hat{ heta }_{n}- heta )$, a pivot commonly chosen for confidence region construction, is most conveniently effected by the $m$ out of $n$ bootstrap. The above choice of pivot has three drawbacks: (i) the shape of the region is either subjectively prescribed or controlled by a computationally intensive depth function; (ii) the region is not transformation equivariant; (iii) $hat{xi }_{n}$ may not be uniquely defined. To resolve the above difficulties, we propose a one-dimensional pivot derived from the criterion function, and prove that its distribution can be consistently estimated by the $m$ out of $n$ bootstrap, or by a modified version of the perturbation bootstrap. This leads to a new method for constructing confidence regions which are transformation equivariant and have shapes driven solely by the criterion function. A subsampling procedure is proposed for selecting $m$ in practice. Empirical performance of the new method is illustrated with examples drawn from different nonstandard M-estimation settings. Extension of our theory to row-wise independent triangular arrays is also explored.

Joshua Cape, Minh Tang, Carey E. Priebe.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 5, 2405--2439.

Abstract:
The singular value matrix decomposition plays a ubiquitous role throughout statistics and related fields. Myriad applications including clustering, classification, and dimensionality reduction involve studying and exploiting the geometric structure of singular values and singular vectors. This paper provides a novel collection of technical and theoretical tools for studying the geometry of singular subspaces using the two-to-infinity norm. Motivated by preliminary deterministic Procrustes analysis, we consider a general matrix perturbation setting in which we derive a new Procrustean matrix decomposition. Together with flexible machinery developed for the two-to-infinity norm, this allows us to conduct a refined analysis of the induced perturbation geometry with respect to the underlying singular vectors even in the presence of singular value multiplicity. Our analysis yields singular vector entrywise perturbation bounds for a range of popular matrix noise models, each of which has a meaningful associated statistical inference task. In addition, we demonstrate how the two-to-infinity norm is the preferred norm in certain statistical settings. Specific applications discussed in this paper include covariance estimation, singular subspace recovery, and multiple graph inference. Both our Procrustean matrix decomposition and the technical machinery developed for the two-to-infinity norm may be of independent interest.

Elizabeth Lorenzi, Ricardo Henao, Katherine Heller.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2637--2661.

Abstract:
Nearly a third of all surgeries performed in the United States occur for patients over the age of 65; these older adults experience a higher rate of postoperative morbidity and mortality. To improve the care for these patients, we aim to identify and characterize high risk geriatric patients to send to a specialized perioperative clinic while leveraging the overall surgical population to improve learning. To this end, we develop a hierarchical infinite latent factor model (HIFM) to appropriately account for the covariance structure across subpopulations in data. We propose a novel Hierarchical Dirichlet Process shrinkage prior on the loadings matrix that flexibly captures the underlying structure of our data while sharing information across subpopulations to improve inference and prediction. The stick-breaking construction of the prior assumes an infinite number of factors and allows for each subpopulation to utilize different subsets of the factor space and select the number of factors needed to best explain the variation. We develop the model into a latent factor regression method that excels at prediction and inference of regression coefficients. Simulations validate this strong performance compared to baseline methods. We apply this work to the problem of predicting surgical complications using electronic health record data for geriatric patients and all surgical patients at Duke University Health System (DUHS). The motivating application demonstrates the improved predictive performance when using HIFM in both area under the ROC curve and area under the PR Curve while providing interpretable coefficients that may lead to actionable interventions.

Tom Alberts, Firas Rassoul-Agha, Mackenzie Simper.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 1927--1955.

Abstract:
We prove that given any fixed asymptotic velocity, the finite length O’Connell–Yor polymer has an infinite length limit satisfying the law of large numbers with this velocity. By a Markovian property of the quenched polymer this reduces to showing the existence of Busemann functions : almost sure limits of ratios of random point-to-point partition functions. The key ingredients are the Burke property of the O’Connell–Yor polymer and a comparison lemma for the ratios of partition functions. We also show the existence of infinite length limits in the Brownian last passage percolation model.

Eduard Belitser, Nurzhan Nurushev.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 1, 191--225.

Abstract:
In the general signal$+$noise (allowing non-normal, non-independent observations) model, we construct an empirical Bayes posterior which we then use for uncertainty quantification for the unknown, possibly sparse, signal. We introduce a novel excessive bias restriction (EBR) condition, which gives rise to a new slicing of the entire space that is suitable for uncertainty quantification. Under EBR and some mild exchangeable exponential moment condition on the noise, we establish the local (oracle) optimality of the proposed confidence ball. Without EBR, we propose another confidence ball of full coverage, but its radius contains an additional $sigma n^{1/4}$-term. In passing, we also get the local optimal results for estimation , posterior contraction problems, and the problem of weak recovery of sparsity structure . Adaptive minimax results (also for the estimation and posterior contraction problems) over various sparsity classes follow from our local results.

French translation of the Press Release on the pre-release of two special chapters of the Annual Economic Report of the BIS, 17 June 2018. Trust is the missing link in today's cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies' model of generating trust limits their potential to replace conventional money, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report (AER), a new title launched this year.

Spanish translation of the Press Release on the pre-release of two special chapters of the Annual Economic Report of the BIS, 17 June 2018. Trust is the missing link in today's cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies' model of generating trust limits their potential to replace conventional money, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) writes in its Annual Economic Report (AER), a new title launched this year.

We're highlighting newly released titles may have been lost in the news as the nation endures the coronavirus pandemic

The Thunder Bay District Health Unit (TBDHU) confirmed one new case of COVID-19 in its catchment area Thursday, bringing the total in the area to 77, with 65 of those listed as resolved.

BIS statement, 16 March 2020.

The current deconfinement plan in the Montreal area could lead to a rapid increase in deaths in the city, according to findings by Quebec's public health institute. 

Police say the two men, ages 38 and 45, were confined and assaulted in a motel in the 600 block of Idylwyld Drive on Tuesday between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. CST.

Provincial health officers say they have confirmed 29 new cases of the virus and one additional death from COVID-19 in the last 24 hours.

Region of Waterloo Public Health says there are 44 positive cases of COVID-19 at the Breslau meat processing facility Conestoga Meats.

Ontario reported its lowest new COVID-19 case count of the week on Saturday with 346 new confirmed cases of the virus. Meanwhile, the government has issued an emergency order allowing school board employees to be voluntarily redeployed to hospitals, long-term care homes, retirement homes and women's shelters.

An inmate at the Calgary Remand Centre has tested positive for COVID-19, marking the first time a case has been reported at an Alberta correctional facility.

Denver Newsroom, May 7, 2020 / 03:48 pm (CNA).- For the first time in over a century, the annual May 13 celebrations at the Fatima shrine will take place without the physical presence of pilgrims, the bishop of Fatima confirmed this week.

Cardinal Antonio Marto said in a May 3 statement that the celebrations for the Feast of Our Lady of Fatima “will take place as was announced April 6, without the physical presence of pilgrims, in the name of prudence to avoid the risk of spreading the novel coronavirus.”

“As planned in conjunction with the civil authorities, the May 12 and 13 celebrations for this year cannot have the physical presence of the pilgrims and will be transmitted by broadcast and digital media,” he continued.

The cardinal explained that hosting “an unpredictable multitude of people” gathering at a time when the coronavirus pandemic is still a serious threat would go against the efforts of health authorities to gradually lift restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the virus.

“We therefore respect, in an attitude of collaboration with the competent civil authorities, the guidelines for these celebrations to be held with a symbolic presence of participants,” Marto said.

The clarification over the Fatima feast day came as the Portuguese government gradually begins to ease restrictions that had been put in place in response to the pandemic, prompting speculation over whether the May 13 celebrations would be able to take place as normal. The annual event typically draws hundreds of thousands from around the world to the shrine.

The Portuguese Bishops’ Conference had announced earlier this month that public Masses could tentatively resume the weekend of Pentecost, May 30-31, in accordance with guidelines to be established by the country’s health department and the Catholic Church.

Cardinal Marto stressed that the decision to suspend public religious celebrations was based in a sense of responsibility toward the public health, as a way of loving one’s neighbor.

“[A]s much as our hearts would like to be in Fatima celebrating together in the same place, as has been the case since 1917, prudence counsels us not to do so this time,” he said, adding that Catholics can look forward to an end to the pandemic and an opportunity to gather together joyfully in the future.

Fr. Carlos Cabecinhas, rector of the Shrine of Our Lady of Fatima, encouraged pilgrims who are unable to physically attend the events to make an interior pilgrimage, participating in the events of the Solemnity of Our Lady of Fatima through the internet or social media.

“This is a painful time: the shrine exists to welcome the pilgrims and we cannot do so, this is a cause for great sadness; but this decision is also an act of responsibility toward the pilgrims, protecting their health and welfare,” the priest said.

The shrine’s website offers four steps to guide people on this interior pilgrimage.

According to the website, “the celebrations of May 12 and 13 will maintain the usual schedule with recitation of the Rosary at 9:30 p.m. followed by the Candlelight Procession. On the 13th the Rosary will be prayed at 9:00 a.m. followed by the International Mass and the Farewell Procession.”

In March, 24 countries were consecrated to the Sacred Heart of Jesus and the Immaculate Heart of Mary at the Shrine of Our Lady of Fatima.

At that ceremony, Cardinal Marto recalled that Saints Francisco and Jacinto Marto, shepherd children to whom an angel, and then the Blessed Virgin Mary appeared in 1916 and 1917 at Fatima, both died amid the victims of the Spanish flu pandemic.

To date, Johns Hopkins University has reported 26,182 cases of novel coronavirus in Portugal, with 1089 deaths.

 

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