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In a series of pieces during the past two weeks (see here, here, and here), I've laid out the evidence for two propositions: The president's economic record will be at the heart of the 2012 election, and he cannot win without focusing on the heartland — the swing states stretching from Pennsylvania to Iowa.

The case for the first proposition goes as follows:

To an extent that we haven't seen since 1992 (and maybe not even then), the 2012 election will focus on a single issue: economic growth and job creation.

For that reason above all, President Obama will be waging an uphill battle for reelection, because the American people are giving his management of the economy very low grades. (Recent CBS/NYT surveys have placed approval of his performance on the economy and job creation at below 40 percent.)

While for understandable reasons the president's campaign team wants to turn the election into a choice between two futures, the odds of success for that strategy seem low. Most political scientists who have studied the question conclude that when there's an incumbent in the race, the principal issue is that candidate's job performance. (That's why Reagan's "Are you better off..." was such a killer question against Carter in 1980.)

President Obama, therefore, has no choice but to address the economic question head-on, which will require him to offer a much more persuasive defense of his record than he has up to now.

The case for my second proposition — the Heartland Strategy — is this:

The president's team hopes to recreate the "new majority" strategy that expanded the playing field and led to victories in states such as Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada in 2008 and perhaps Arizona and Georgia as well in 2012. This does not seem realistic, however: while the president's support among African Americans remains strong, it has dropped sharply among Hispanics disappointed by what they see as his failure to push for comprehensive immigration reform and his administration's aggressive deportation strategy. And every survey and focus group points to diminished enthusiasm among the young adults whose relentless networking on Obama's behalf contributed significantly to his historic victory.

To make matters worse, the president's numbers in Florida are dismal, he trails likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 10 points in New Hampshire, and he has no chance of repeating his 2008 miracle victory in Indiana.

These facts underscore the crucial importance of the heartland states — especially Ohio and Pennsylvania. As a matter of history and simple arithmetic, is very unlikely that President Obama can be reelected without carrying them both.

Although Pennsylvania is usually 3 to 4 points more Democratic than Ohio, the evidence suggests that Obama is surprisingly weak there and needs to do some real work to shore up his standing in a state that Democrats often regard as being in the bag.

As for Ohio, the last Democrat to take the White house without winning that state was John Kennedy, who did it with electoral votes from Texas and other southern states that Obama will not receive. (The last Republican to win the presidency without Ohio? There hasn't been one since the founding of the party in the 1850s.)

Ohio is pivotal, election after election, because it is a demographic and political microcosm of the country. If a presidential candidate can win a majority there, he or she can almost certainly do so in the nation as well. And that's why both parties should pay close attention to the results of last week's election, in which the Ohio electorate overwhelmingly rejected both Gov. Kasich's assault on public sector unions and the individual mandate at the heart of President Obama's health reform law.

If these two core propositions are correct — if the 2012 election will be about Obama's economic stewardship and will be won or lost in the heartland — then the key question is this: How can the president defend his economic record in a region much of which has not enjoyed robust growth for quite some time?

Let's look at some basics:

It's hard to imagine Obama losing Illinois or winning Indiana in 2012. That leaves six key heartland states. Note what they have in common: despite widely varying rates of unemployment, none of them has experienced a rapid decline in that rate over the past year. Because there's no sense of dynamism in the region, hope and confidence in the future are at a low ebb. That's the reality the president must speak to, there and elsewhere.

How can Obama recast the economic discussion? Here's my best shot:

First, he must acknowledge Americans' sense of being stuck and then explain why recovery from this downturn has been so painfully slow — in particular, the impact of the financial collapse and our excessive debt burden, private as well as public.

Second, he must display some humility and acknowledge that he didn't get everything right. It was a mistake not to underscore the difficulty of our circumstances right from the start. It was a mistake to predict that unemployment would peak at 8 percent if his stimulus bill were enacted. While it was necessary to save the big financial institutions from a total meltdown, it was a mistake to ask so little from them institutions in return. And it was a mistake to act so timidly in the face of a housing and mortgage crisis that has cost the middle class many trillions of dollars in lost wealth.

Third, he should emphasize what most Americans believe: without the steps his administration took at the depth of the crisis, there might well have been a second Great Depression. Sure, "It could have been much worse" isn't much of a bumper sticker, but it's a place to start, and it has the merit of being true.

Fourth, what he has done so far has not only halted the decline but has yielded more than twenty consecutive months of growth in private sector jobs — progress that would be more noticeable if states and localities hadn't been shedding so many employees in response to the squeeze on their budgets.

Fifth, while most Americans didn't like it when his administration intervened to save GM and Chrysler, it was the right thing to do, not only for auto workers, but for much of the heartland's economy as well. Allowing these two firms to dissolve would have broken the back of regions already struggling with double-digit unemployment. Leadership means doing what's necessary and right, even when it's unpopular.

Sixth, we now have the opportunity to build on the foundation laid during this painful period in our history. Obama can emphasize steps such as: a bold new response to housing foreclosures and underwater mortgages; an infrastructure bank that mobilizes both domestic and foreign capital to put Americans back to work on projects that will strengthen our economy; and a tougher stance vis-à-vis Chinese policies that have taken their toll on American workers and firms. And yes, we need to come together around fundamental spending and tax reform that can stabilize our fiscal future without further undermining the hard-pressed middle class.

That's the guts of the affirmative case Obama can make. (No doubt he believes he's already doing it, but he hasn't been frank, comprehensive, and persistent enough to break through.) And if he does make it relentlessly until next Labor Day, he can then pivot and ask, What's the alternative? What is my opponent offering? If you think that an agenda of deregulation for big polluters, more tax breaks for the wealthy, and a laissez-faire policy that allows the housing sector to "hit bottom" is the way to jump start job creation, the by all means vote for him. If you don't, you have a chance to continue moving down a path that can move us from the shadows of stagnation to the sunlight of opportunity and to build a new economy in which all Americans — not just a favored few — enjoy the fruits of growth.

       

Event Information

On August 1-3, 2012, Brookings Global Economy and Development hosted the ninth annual Brookings Blum Roundtable on Global Poverty in Aspen, Colorado. The year’s roundtable theme, "Innovation and Technology for Development", brought together global leaders, entrepreneurs and practioners to discuss how technology and innovation can be seized to help solve some of the world's most pressing global development challenges.

2012 Brookings Blum Roundtable: Related Materials
	Read the roundtable report - Clicks into Bricks, Technology into Transformation, and the Fight Against Poverty »  View videos from roundtable participants »  Download the participant list » (PDF)  Download the scene setter » (PDF)  Download the full roundtable agenda » (PDF)

Global development challenges are of massive scale: 61 million children out of school and many more failing to learn basic literacy and numeracy skills; 850 million facing hunger; 1 billion living in slums and 1.3 billion without access to electricity. Yet remarkably little is understood about successful strategies for designing scalable solutions, the impediments to reaching scale, or the most appropriate pathways for getting there.

However, a batch of new technologies offers the promise of a breakthrough by encouraging innovative business models, pushing down transaction costs and disintermediating complex activities. Mobile money could realistically reach over 1 billion poor people in the next decade and directly connect millions of rich individuals with millions of poor people. Real-time data can allow resources to be better targeted and managed. New media can sharpen accountability and reduce waste and overlap.

 

Roundtable Agenda

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Welcome: 8:40AM - 9:00AM
Brookings Welcome
• Strobe Talbott, Brookings

Opening Remarks
• Richard C. Blum, Blum Capital Partners, LP and Founder of the Blum Center for Developing Economies at Berkeley
• Mark Suzman, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• Kemal Derviş, Global Economy and Development, Brookings

Session I: 9:00AM - 10:30AM
Framing Session: Translating Technological Innovations into Transformational Impact
In this opening discussion, participants will explore the overarching questions for the roundtable: If the poor can readily be identified and if they have access to financial services and participate in technology-driven communication networks, how does this change the development paradigm? How can effective partnerships be forged to combine the efforts of different international and local actors (businesses, governments, foundations, NGOs, and universities) in propagating solutions? Can scalable technologies raise the profile and potential of new business models, approaches and partnerships?

Moderator
• Homi Kharas, Brookings

Introductory Remarks
• Thomas A. Kalil, White House Office of Science and Technology
• Michael Kubzansky, Monitor Group 
• Lalitesh Katragadda, Google India
• Smita Singh, Independent

Session II: 10:50AM - 12:20PM
Mobile Money and Mass Payments
Participants will explore the following questions for the rountable: Is the rapid uptake of mobile money/payment technology throughout the developing world assured and if not, what (or whom) are the impediments? What is required to enable successful mass payments systems that employ mobile money technology? What is the optimal role of government, non-profits and private actors in supporting mobile money services? How can mass payments systems be used to implement national safety nets?

Moderator
• Gillian Tett, Financial Times

Introductory Remarks
• Neal Keny-Guyer, Mercy Corps
• Mwangi Kimenyi, Brookings
• Mung Ki Woo, MasterCard Worldwide Group Executive Mobile

Dinner Program: 7:30PM - 9:15PM
Aspen Institute Madeleine K. Albright Global Development Lecture

Featuring
• Rajiv Shah, Administrator, United States Agency for International Development

Click here to read Rajiv Shah's remarks »

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Thursday, August 2, 2012 

Session III: 9:00AM - 10:30AM 
Mass Networks: Leveraging Information from the Crowd
Participants will explore the following questions for the rountable: What are the most promising examples of using social media, crowdsourcing and “big data” to advance development and humanitarian outcomes? How can traditional foreign assistance make use of virtual networks to support transparency, democratic governance and improved service delivery? How can technologies be used to understand clients, promote beneficiary feedback and learning to fine tune business models in base of the pyramid markets?

Moderator
• Walter Isaacson, Aspen Institute

Introductory Remarks
• Anne-Marie Slaughter, Princeton University
• Juliana Rotich, Ushahidi
• Robert Kirkpatrick, UN Global Pulse Initiative
• Rakesh Rajani, Twaweza

Session IV: 10:50AM - 12:20PM
Innovation and Technology for Green Growth
Participants will explore the following questions for the rountable: How advanced is green growth technology vis-à-vis the scale and urgency of the global climate challenge? What is the role of pricing and intellectual property and push and pull mechanisms in speeding up propagation within developed and developing markets? How can the goal of “sustainable energy for all” be achieved, and is it feasible in all countries?

Moderator
• Al Gore, The Climate Reality Project

Introductory Remarks
• Mary Robinson, Mary Robinson Foundation - Climate Justice
• Helen Clark, United Nations Development Programme
• Arthur Njagi, International Finance Corporation
• Viswanathan Shankar, Standard Chartered Bank

Lunch Program: 12:30PM - 2:00PM
Partnering with Academic Research Institutions
This discussion will explore partnerships between public sector development institutions and academic research institutions to support global development goals. Topics will include the constraints to research; how to make research more relevant to developing country problems; issues around incentives for scientists and universities; and relationships between universities, financiers and implementers.

Moderator
• Javier Solana, ESADE

Panel
• Richard C. Blum, Blum Capital Partners, LP and Founder of the Blum Center for Developing Economies at Berkeley
• Luis Alberto Moreno, Inter-American Development Bank
• Shankar Sastry, University of California, Berkeley
• Alex Deghan, United States Agency for International Development

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Friday, August 3, 2012 

Session V: 9:00AM - 10:30AM
Business Solutions and Private Sector Development
Participants will explore the following questions for the rountable: What role can the new breed of socially conscious private actors (e.g., social enterprises and impact investors) play in overcoming finance and delivery constraints and scaling up development impact? Where is the need for investment finance most acute, and who or what can fill these gaps? How are management approaches evolving to suit base of the pyramid markets? What are the impediments to the adoption or adaptation of scalable technologies by developing country enterprises, and are southern innovations being efficiently spread? What is constraining private sector development in Africa, and is technology a key bottleneck?

Moderator
• Laura Tyson, University of California, Berkeley

Introductory Remarks
• Rob Mosbacher, Mosbacher Energy Company
• Mathews Chikaonda, Press Corporation Limited
• Elizabeth Littlefield, Overseas Private Investment Corporation
• Amy Klement, Omidyar Network

Session VI: 10:50AM - 12:20PM
Delivering U.S. Leadership: Role for the Public Sector
Participants will explore the following questions for the rountable: What is an appropriate role for the U.S. government in promoting technological solutions for development and scaling these up? How should the government leverage new private sector players? What are the best examples of, and lessons learned from, earlier and on-going public private partnerships? How can the U.S. government work more effectively to support local innovation and technology in developing countries?

Moderator
• Sylvia Burwell, Walmart Foundation

Introductory Remarks
• Rajiv Shah, Administrator, United States Agency for International Development
• Sam Worthington, InterAction
• Henrietta Fore, Holsman International

Closing Remarks: 12:20PM - 12:30PM

• Richard C. Blum, Blum Capital Partners, LP and Founder of the Blum Center for Developing Economies at Berkeley
• Kemal Derviş, Global Economy and Development, Brookings

Lunch Program: 12:30PM - 2:00PM
A Conversation with Michael Froman and Thomas Nides
This conversation will focus on the politics and finance of the US government’s efforts on global development, including its specific initiatives regarding technology and innovation for development.

Moderator
• Madeleine K. Albright, Albright Stronebridge Group

Live Webcast Event: 4:00PM - 5:30PM
Brookings and the Aspen Institute Present: "A Conversation with Former World Bank President Robert Zoellick"

Global Economy and Development at Brookings and the Aspen Strategy Group will host Robert Zoellick, who recently stepped down as president of the World Bank after serving in that office for the past five years. Mr. Zoellick has held several senior positions in the U.S. Government, including deputy secretary of state and U.S. trade representative under President George W. Bush. This event will be webcast live on the Brookings website. Click here for more details.

Introduction
• R. Nicholas Burns, Director, Aspen Strategy Group and Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics, Harvard Kennedy School of Government

Moderator
• Strobe Talbott, President, Brookings

       

Ordering Information:

• {9ABF977A-E4A6-41C8-B030-0FD655E07DBF}, 978-0-8157-2488-9, $36.00 Add to Cart

      

Event Information

From “American Crossroads” to “Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow,” so-called "super PACs" have emerged as the dominant new force in campaign finance. Created in the aftermath of two landmark court decisions and regulatory action and inaction by the Federal Election Commission (FEC), these independent spending-only political action committees are collecting unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations and unions to advocate for or against political candidates. The legal requirements they face—disclosure of donors and non-coordination with the candidates and campaigns they are supporting—have proven embarrassingly porous. Increasingly, super PACs are being formed to boost a single candidate and are often organized and funded by that candidate’s close friends, relatives and former staff members. Their presence is most visible in presidential elections but they are quickly moving to Senate and House elections.

On March 1, on the heels of the FEC’s February filing deadline, the Governance Studies program at Brookings hosted a discussion exploring the role of super PACs in the broader campaign finance landscape this election season. Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Colby College and a leading authority on campaign finance, and Trevor Potter, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a former chairman of the FEC and lawyer to Comedy Central’s Stephen Colbert, presented. 

After the panel discussion, the speakers took audience questions. Participants joined the discussion on Twitter by using the hashtag #BISuperPAC.

Video

• Full Video: The Rise of Super PACs
• Why Corporations Spend on Elections
• GOP Likely to Benefit Most from Super PACs

Audio

• Campaign Finance in the 2012 Elections: The Rise of Super PACs

Transcript

• Uncorrected Transcript (.pdf)

Event Materials

• 20120301_super_pacs

       

Super PACs have already spent tens of millions of dollars in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with more to come. Expert Anthony Corrado says that the unlimited spending by the PACs, made possible by two Supreme Court decisions, is giving wealthy individuals unprecedented influence in the 2012 elections.

Video

• The Influence of Super PACs on the 2012 Elections

Audio

• @Brookings Podcast: The Influence of Super PACs on the 2012 Elections

       

Leaders will head to the G-20 Summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, among renewed serious concern about the world economy. The turmoil that started with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has resulted in now almost five years of ongoing instability. The emerging market economies fared much better than the advanced economies and pulled out of the crisis already in 2009, but the slowdown we are now facing in 2012 is again global, demonstrating the interdependence in the world economy. The emerging market economies have stronger underlying trend growth rates, but they remain vulnerable to a downturn in the advanced economies. The center of concern is now squarely on Europe, with a recession threatening most European countries, even those that had reasonably good performances so far. After an encouraging start in 2012, the U.S. economy, while not close to a recession, is also showing signs of a slowdown rather than the hoped for steady acceleration of growth. And the slowdown is spreading across the globe.

At a time like this it would be desirable and necessary that the G-20 show real initiative and cohesion. The essays in this collection look at the challenge from various angles. There is concern that the G-20 is losing its sense of purpose, that cohesion is decreasing rather than increasing, and that policy initiatives are reactive to events rather than proactive. Let us hope that at this moment of great difficulty, the G-20 will succeed in giving the world economy a new sense of direction and confidence. It is much needed.

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