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ReactomeGSA - Efficient Multi-Omics Comparative Pathway Analysis [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Pathway analyses are key methods to analyze 'omics experiments. Nevertheless, integrating data from different 'omics technologies and different species still requires considerable bioinformatics knowledge.

Here we present the novel ReactomeGSA resource for comparative pathway analyses of multi-omics datasets. ReactomeGSA can be used through Reactome's existing web interface and the novel ReactomeGSA R Bioconductor package with explicit support for scRNA-seq data. Data from different species is automatically mapped to a common pathway space. Public data from ExpressionAtlas and Single Cell ExpressionAtlas can be directly integrated in the analysis. ReactomeGSA greatly reduces the technical barrier for multi-omics, cross-species, comparative pathway analyses.

We used ReactomeGSA to characterize the role of B cells in anti-tumor immunity. We compared B cell rich and poor human cancer samples from five of the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) transcriptomics and two of the Clinical Proteomic Tumor Analysis Consortium (CPTAC) proteomics studies. B cell-rich lung adenocarcinoma samples lacked the otherwise present activation through NFkappaB. This may be linked to the presence of a specific subset of tumor associated IgG+ plasma cells that lack NFkappaB activation in scRNA-seq data from human melanoma. This showcases how ReactomeGSA can derive novel biomedical insights by integrating large multi-omics datasets.




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Novel Proteomic Profiling of Epididymal Extracellular Vesicles in the Domestic Cat Reveals Proteins Related to Sequential Sperm Maturation with Differences Observed between Normospermic and Teratospermic Individuals [Research]

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) secreted by the epididymal epithelium transfer to spermatozoa key proteins that are essential in promoting motility and subsequent fertilization success. Using the domestic cat model, the objectives were to (1) characterize and compare protein content of EVs between segments of the epididymis, and (2) compare EV protein compositions between normo- and teratospermic individuals (producing >60% of abnormal spermatozoa). Epididymal EVs from adult cats were isolated and assessed via liquid chromatography tandem MS. Both male types shared 3008 proteins in total, with 98 and 20 EV proteins unique to normospermic and teratospermic males, respectively. Expression levels of several proteins changed between epididymal segments in both male types. Several proteins in both groups were related to sperm motility (e.g. hexokinase 1, adenylate kinase isoenzyme) and zona pellucida or oolemma binding (e.g. disintegrin and metalloproteinase domain proteins, zona binding proteins 1 and 2). Interestingly, seven cauda-derived EV proteins trended downward in teratospermic compared with normospermic males, which may relate to poor sperm quality. Collective results revealed, for the first time, EV proteins related to sequential sperm maturation with differences observed between normospermic and teratospermic individuals.




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Kinome Profiling of Primary Endometrial Tumors Using Multiplexed Inhibitor Beads and Mass Spectrometry Identifies SRPK1 as Candidate Therapeutic Target [Research]

Endometrial carcinoma (EC) is the most common gynecologic malignancy in the United States, with limited effective targeted therapies. Endometrial tumors exhibit frequent alterations in protein kinases, yet only a small fraction of the kinome has been therapeutically explored. To identify kinase therapeutic avenues for EC, we profiled the kinome of endometrial tumors and normal endometrial tissues using Multiplexed Inhibitor Beads and Mass Spectrometry (MIB-MS). Our proteomics analysis identified a network of kinases overexpressed in tumors, including Serine/Arginine-Rich Splicing Factor Kinase 1 (SRPK1). Immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of endometrial tumors confirmed MIB-MS findings and showed SRPK1 protein levels were highly expressed in endometrioid and uterine serous cancer (USC) histological subtypes. Moreover, querying large-scale genomics studies of EC tumors revealed high expression of SRPK1 correlated with poor survival. Loss-of-function studies targeting SRPK1 in an established USC cell line demonstrated SRPK1 was integral for RNA splicing, as well as cell cycle progression and survival under nutrient deficient conditions. Profiling of USC cells identified a compensatory response to SRPK1 inhibition that involved EGFR and the up-regulation of IGF1R and downstream AKT signaling. Co-targeting SRPK1 and EGFR or IGF1R synergistically enhanced growth inhibition in serous and endometrioid cell lines, representing a promising combination therapy for EC.




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Mutation-independent Proteomic Signatures of Pathological Progression in Murine Models of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy [Research]

The absence of the dystrophin protein in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) results in myofiber fragility and a plethora of downstream secondary pathologies. Although a variety of experimental therapies are in development, achieving effective treatments for DMD remains exceptionally challenging, not least because the pathological consequences of dystrophin loss are incompletely understood. Here we have performed proteome profiling in tibialis anterior muscles from two murine DMD models (mdx and mdx52) at three ages (8, 16, and 80 weeks of age), all n = 3. High-resolution isoelectric focusing liquid chromatography-tandem MS (HiRIEF-LC–MS/MS) was used to quantify the expression of 4974 proteins across all 27 samples. The two dystrophic models were found to be highly similar, whereas multiple proteins were differentially expressed relative to WT (C57BL/6) controls at each age. Furthermore, 1795 proteins were differentially expressed when samples were pooled across ages and dystrophic strains. These included numerous proteins associated with the extracellular matrix and muscle function that have not been reported previously. Pathway analysis revealed multiple perturbed pathways and predicted upstream regulators, which together are indicative of cross-talk between inflammatory, metabolic, and muscle growth pathways (e.g. TNF, INF, NF-B, SIRT1, AMPK, PGC-1α, PPARs, ILK, and AKT/PI3K). Upregulation of CAV3, MVP and PAK1 protein expression was validated in dystrophic muscle by Western blot. Furthermore, MVP was upregulated during, but not required for, the differentiation of C2C12 myoblasts suggesting that this protein may affect muscle regeneration. This study provides novel insights into mutation-independent proteomic signatures characteristic of the dystrophic phenotype and its progression with aging.




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Citrus Vascular Proteomics Highlights the Role of Peroxidases and Serine Proteases during Huanglongbing Disease Progression [Research]

Huanglongbing (HLB) is the most devastating and widespread citrus disease. All commercial citrus varieties are susceptible to the HLB-associated bacterium, Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas), which resides in the phloem. The phloem is part of the plant vascular system and is involved in sugar transport. To investigate the plant response to CLas, we enriched for proteins surrounding the phloem in an HLB susceptible sweet orange variety, Washington navel (Citrus sinensis (L) Osbeck). Quantitative proteomics revealed global changes in the citrus proteome after CLas inoculation. Plant metabolism and translation were suppressed, whereas defense-related proteins such as peroxidases, proteases and protease inhibitors were induced in the vasculature. Transcript accumulation and enzymatic activity of plant peroxidases in CLas infected sweet orange varieties under greenhouse and field conditions were assessed. Although peroxidase transcript accumulation was induced in CLas infected sweet orange varieties, peroxidase enzymatic activity varied. Specific serine proteases were up-regulated in Washington navel in the presence of CLas based on quantitative proteomics. Subsequent activity-based protein profiling revealed increased activity of two serine proteases, and reduced activity of one protease in two C. sinensis sweet orange varieties under greenhouse and field conditions. The observations in the current study highlight global reprogramming of the citrus vascular proteome and differential regulation of enzyme classes in response to CLas infection. These results open an avenue for further investigation of diverse responses to HLB across different environmental conditions and citrus genotypes.




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A Mouse Brain-based Multi-omics Integrative Approach Reveals Potential Blood Biomarkers for Ischemic Stroke [Research]

Stroke remains a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite continuous advances, the identification of key molecular signatures in the hyper-acute phase of ischemic stroke is still a primary interest for translational research on stroke diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. Data integration from high-throughput -omics techniques has become crucial to unraveling key interactions among different molecular elements in complex biological contexts, such as ischemic stroke. Thus, we used advanced data integration methods for a multi-level joint analysis of transcriptomics and proteomics data sets obtained from mouse brains at 2 h after cerebral ischemia. By modeling net-like correlation structures, we identified an integrated network of genes and proteins that are differentially expressed at a very early stage after stroke. We validated 10 of these deregulated elements in acute stroke, and changes in their expression pattern over time after cerebral ischemia were described. Of these, CLDN20, GADD45G, RGS2, BAG5, and CTNND2 were next evaluated as blood biomarkers of cerebral ischemia in mice and human blood samples, which were obtained from stroke patients and patients presenting stroke-mimicking conditions. Our findings indicate that CTNND2 levels in blood might potentially be useful for distinguishing ischemic strokes from stroke-mimicking conditions in the hyper-acute phase of the disease. Furthermore, circulating GADD45G content within the first 6 h after stroke could also play a key role in predicting poor outcomes in stroke patients. For the first time, we have used an integrative biostatistical approach to elucidate key molecules in the initial stages of stroke pathophysiology and highlight new notable molecules that might be further considered as blood biomarkers of ischemic stroke.




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Douleurs côté droit sous les côtes : comment les soulager naturellement

En fonction de leurs causes, les douleurs du côté droit peuvent se manifester de différentes manières. Les symptômes de ces douleurs peuvent également varier d’une personne à une autre. Certaines personnes décrivent les douleurs du côté comme des sensations de crampes, de brûlures ou de piqûres. D’autres en revanche parlent de douleurs sourdes ou lancinantes qui irradient […]

L’article Douleurs côté droit sous les côtes : comment les soulager naturellement est apparu en premier sur Ortho Doc France.




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Quelques remèdes de grand-mère pour soulager les symptômes de la fibromyalgie

En France, environ 2 à 4 % de la population, souvent des femmes, est touchée par la fibromyalgie. Mais en réalité, qu’est-ce que la fibromyalgie ? Quelles sont les astuces naturelles permettant de soulager les patients qui présentent des symptômes de cette maladie ? Quels sont les symptômes de la fibromyalgie ? La fibromyalgie, ou syndrome fibromyalgique, […]

L’article Quelques remèdes de grand-mère pour soulager les symptômes de la fibromyalgie est apparu en premier sur Ortho Doc France.




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Detection of multiple autoantibodies in patients with ankylosing spondylitis using nucleic acid programmable protein arrays [11. Microarrays/Combinatorics/Display Technology]

Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a common, inflammatory rheumatic disease, which primarily affects the axial skeleton and is associated with sacroiliitis, uveitis and enthesitis. Unlike other autoimmune rheumatic diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis or systemic lupus erythematosus, autoantibodies have not yet been reported to be a feature of AS. We therefore wished to determine if plasma from patients with AS contained autoantibodies and if so, characterize and quantify this response in comparison to patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) and healthy controls. Two high-density nucleic acid programmable protein arrays expressing a total of 3498 proteins were screened with plasma from 25 patients with AS, 17 with RA and 25 healthy controls. Autoantigens identified were subjected to Ingenuity Pathway Analysis in order to determine patterns of signalling cascades or tissue origin. 44% of patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis demonstrated a broad autoantibody response, as compared to 33% of patients with RA and only 8% of healthy controls. Individuals with AS demonstrated autoantibody responses to shared autoantigens, and 60% of autoantigens identified in the AS cohort were restricted to that group. The AS patients autoantibody responses were targeted towards connective, skeletal and muscular tissue, unlike those of RA patients or healthy controls. Thus, patients with AS show evidence of systemic humoral autoimmunity and multispecific autoantibody production. Nucleic Acid Programmable Protein Arrays constitute a powerful tool to study autoimmune diseases.




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Multiple hypothesis testing in proteomics: A strategy for experimental work [Invited]

In quantitative proteomics work, the differences in expression of many separate proteins are routinely examined to test for significant differences between treatments. This leads to the multiple hypothesis testing problem: when many separate tests are performed many will be significant by chance and be false positive results. Statistical methods such as the false discovery rate (FDR) method that deal with this problem have been disseminated for more than one decade. However a survey of proteomics journals shows that such tests are not widely implemented in one commonly used technique, quantitative proteomics using two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE). We outline a selection of multiple hypothesis testing methods, including some that are well known and some lesser known, and present a simple strategy for their use by the experimental scientist in quantitative proteomics work generally. The strategy focuses on the desirability of simultaneous use of several different methods, the choice and emphasis dependent on research priorities and the results in hand. This approach is demonstrated using case scenarios with experimental and simulated model data.




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Oxidative stress-mediated regulation of proteasome complexes [Other]

Oxidative stress has been implicated in aging and many human diseases, notably neurodegenerative disorders and various cancers. The reactive oxygen species that are generated by aerobic metabolism and environmental stressors can chemically modify proteins and alter their biological functions. Cells possess protein repair pathways to rescue oxidized proteins and restore their functions. If these repair processes fail, oxidized proteins may become cytotoxic. Cell homeostasis and viability are therefore dependent on the removal of oxidatively damaged proteins. Numerous studies have demonstrated that the proteasome plays a pivotal role in the selective recognition and degradation of oxidized proteins. Despite extensive research, oxidative stress-triggered regulation of proteasome complexes remains poorly defined. Better understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying proteasome function in response to oxidative stress will provide a basis for developing new strategies aimed at improving cell viability and recovery as well as attenuating oxidation-induced cytotoxicity associated with aging and disease. Here we highlight recent advances in the understanding of proteasome structure and function during oxidative stress and describe how cells cope with oxidative stress through proteasome-dependent degradation pathways.




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Quantitative profiling of protein tyrosine kinases in human cancer cell lines by multiplexed parallel reaction monitoring assays [Technology]

Protein tyrosine kinases (PTKs) play key roles in cellular signal transduction, cell cycle regulation, cell division, and cell differentiation. Dysregulation of PTK-activated pathways, often by receptor overexpression, gene amplification, or genetic mutation, is a causal factor underlying numerous cancers. In this study, we have developed a parallel reaction monitoring (PRM)-based assay for quantitative profiling of 83 PTKs. The assay detects 308 proteotypic peptides from 54 receptor tyrosine kinases and 29 nonreceptor tyrosine kinases in a single run. Quantitative comparisons were based on the labeled reference peptide method. We implemented the assay in four cell models: 1) a comparison of proliferating versus epidermal growth factor (EGF)-stimulated A431 cells, 2) a comparison of SW480Null (mutant APC) and SW480APC (APC restored) colon tumor cell lines, and 3) a comparison of 10 colorectal cancer cell lines with different genomic abnormalities, and 4) lung cancer cell lines with either susceptibility (11-18) or acquired resistance (11-18R) to the epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor erlotinib. We observed distinct PTK expression changes that were induced by stimuli, genomic features or drug resistance, which were consistent with previous reports. However, most of the measured expression differences were novel observations. For example, acquired resistance to erlotinib in the 11-18 cell model was associated not only with previously reported upregulation of MET, but also with upregulation of FLK2 and downregulation of LYN and PTK7. Immunoblot analyses and shotgun proteomics data were highly consistent with PRM data. Multiplexed PRM assays provide a targeted, systems-level profiling approach to evaluate cancer-related proteotypes and adaptations. Data are available through Proteome eXchange Accession PXD002706.




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Calculating glycoprotein similarities from mass spectrometric data [Review]

Complex protein glycosylation occurs through biosynthetic steps in the secretory pathway that create macro- and microheterogeneity of structure and function.  Required for all life forms, glycosylation diversifies and adapts protein interactions with binding partners that underpin interactions at cell surfaces and pericellular and extracellular environments. Because these biological effects arise from heterogeneity of structure and function, it is necessary to measure their changes as part of the quest to understand nature.  Quite often, however, the assumption behind proteomics that post-translational modifications are discrete additions that can be modeled using the genome as a template does not apply to protein glycosylation.  Rather, it is necessary to quantify the glycosylation distribution at each glycosite and to aggregate this information into a population of mature glycoproteins that exist in a given biological system.  To date, mass spectrometric methods for assigning singly glycosylated peptides are well-established.  But it is necessary to quantify glycosylation heterogeneity accurately in order to gauge the alterations that occur during biological processes.  The task is to quantify the glycosylated peptide forms as accurately as possible and then apply appropriate bioinformatics algorithms to the calculation of micro- and macro-similarities.  In this review, we summarize current approaches for protein quantification as they apply to this glycoprotein similarity problem.




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Thyroglobulin interactome profiling defines altered proteostasis topology associated with thyroid dyshormonogenesis [Research]

Thyroglobulin (Tg) is a secreted iodoglycoprotein serving as the precursor for T3 and T4 hormones. Many characterized Tg gene mutations produce secretion-defective variants resulting in congenital hypothyroidism (CH). Tg processing and secretion is controlled by extensive interactions with chaperone, trafficking, and degradation factors comprising the secretory proteostasis network. While dependencies on individual proteostasis network components are known, the integration of proteostasis pathways mediating Tg protein quality control and the molecular basis of mutant Tg misprocessing remain poorly understood. We employ a multiplexed quantitative affinity purification–mass spectrometry approach to define the Tg proteostasis interactome and changes between WT and several CH-variants. Mutant Tg processing is associated with common imbalances in proteostasis engagement including increased chaperoning, oxidative folding, and engagement by targeting factors for ER-associated degradation (ERAD). Furthermore, we reveal mutation-specific changes in engagement with N-glycosylation components, suggesting distinct requirements for one Tg variant on dual engagement of both oligosaccharyltransferase complex isoforms for degradation. Modulating dysregulated proteostasis components and pathways may serve as a therapeutic strategy to restore Tg secretion and thyroid hormone biosynthesis.




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A proteomic approach to understand the clinical significance of acute myeloid leukemia-derived extracellular vesicles reflecting essential characteristics of leukemia [Research]

Extracellular vesicle (EV) proteins from acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cell lines were analyzed using mass spectrometry. The analyses identified 2450 proteins, including 461 differentially expressed proteins (290 upregulated and 171 downregulated). CD53 and CD47 were upregulated and were selected as candidate biomarkers. The association between survival of patients with AML and the expression levels of CD53 and CD47 at diagnosis was analyzed using mRNA expression data from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. Patients with higher expression levels showed significantly inferior survival than those with lower expression levels. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay results of the expression levels of CD53 and CD47 from EVs in the bone marrow of patients with AML at diagnosis and at the time of complete remission with induction chemotherapy revealed that patients with downregulated CD53 and CD47 expression appeared to relapse less frequently. Network model analysis of EV proteins revealed several upregulated kinases, including LYN, CSNK2A1, SYK, CSK, and PTK2B. The potential cytotoxicity of several clinically applicable drugs that inhibit these kinases was tested in AML cell lines. The drugs lowered the viability of AML cells. The collective data suggest that AML-derived EVs could reflect essential leukemia biology.




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PTM-Shepherd: analysis and summarization of post-translational and chemical modifications from open search results [Technological Innovation and Resources]

Open searching has proven to be an effective strategy for identifying both known and unknown modifications in shotgun proteomics experiments. Rather than being limited to a small set of user-specified modifications, open searches identify peptides with any mass shift that may correspond to a single modification or a combination of several modifications. Here we present PTM-Shepherd, a bioinformatics tool that automates characterization of PTM profiles detected in open searches based on attributes such as amino acid localization, fragmentation spectra similarity, retention time shifts, and relative modification rates. PTM-Shepherd can also perform multi-experiment comparisons for studying changes in modification profiles, e.g. in data generated in different laboratories or under different conditions. We demonstrate how PTM-Shepherd improves the analysis of data from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples, detects extreme underalkylation of cysteine in some datasets, discovers an artefactual modification introduced during peptide synthesis, and uncovers site-specific biases in sample preparation artifacts in a multi-center proteomics profiling study.




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The Mechanism of NEDD8 Activation of CUL5 Ubiquitin E3 Ligases [Research]

Cullin RING E3 Ligases (CRLs) ubiquitylate hundreds of important cellular substrates. Here we have assembled and purified the Ankyrin repeat and SOCS Box protein 9 CUL5 RBX2 Ligase (ASB9-CRL) in vitro and show how it ubiquitylates one of its substrates, CKB. CRLs occasionally collaborate with RING between RING E3 ligases (RBRLs) and indeed, mass spectrometry analysis showed that CKB is specifically ubiquitylated by the ASB9-CRL-ARIH2-UBE2L3 complex. Addition of other E2s such as UBE2R1 or UBE2D2 contribute to polyubiquitylation but do not alter the sites of CKB ubiquitylation. Hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX-MS) analysis revealed that CUL5 neddylation allosterically exposes its ARIH2 binding site, promoting high affinity binding, and it also sequesters the NEDD8 E2 (UBE2F) binding site on RBX2. Once bound, ARIH2 helices near the Ariadne domain active site are exposed, presumably relieving its autoinhibition. These results allow us to propose a model of how neddylation activates ASB-CRLs to ubiquitylate their substrates.




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Multi-sample mass spectrometry-based approach for discovering injury markers in chronic kidney disease [Research]

Urinary proteomics studies have primarily focused on identifying markers of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Here, we aimed to determine urinary markers of CKD renal parenchymal injury through proteomics analysis in animal kidney tissues and cells and in the urine of patients with CKD. Label-free quantitative proteomics analysis based on liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was performed on urine samples obtained from 6 normal controls and 9, 11, and 10 patients with CKD stages 1, 3, and 5, respectively, and on kidney tissue samples from a rat CKD model by 5/6 nephrectomy. Tandem mass tag-based quantitative proteomics analysis was performed for primary cultured glomerular endothelial cells (GECs) and proximal tubular epithelial cells (PTECs) before and after inducing 24-h hypoxia injury. Upon hierarchical clustering, out of 858 differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) in the urine of CKD patients, the levels of 416 decreased and 403 increased sequentially according to the disease stage, respectively. Among 2965 DEPs across 5/6 nephrectomized and sham-operated rat kidney tissues, 86 DEPs showed same expression patterns in the urine and kidney tissue. After cross-validation with two external animal proteome datasets, 38 DEPs were organized; only 10 DEPs, including serotransferrin, gelsolin, poly ADP-ribose polymerase 1, neuroblast differentiation-associated protein AHNAK, microtubule-associated protein 4, galectin-1, protein S, thymosin beta-4, myristoylated alanine-rich C-kinase substrate, and vimentin were finalized by screening human GECs and PTECs data. Among these ten potential candidates for universal CKD marker, validation analyses for protein S and galectin-1 were conducted. Galectin-1 was observed to have a significant inverse correlation with renal function as well as higher expression in glomerulus with chronic injury than protein S. This constitutes the first multi-sample proteomics study for identifying key renal-expressed proteins associated with CKD progression. The discovered proteins represent potential markers of chronic renal cell and tissue damage and candidate contributors to CKD pathophysiology.




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Nuclear Disarmament and the Protection of Cultural Heritage

Nuclear Disarmament and the Protection of Cultural Heritage Research paper sysadmin 6 October 2017

States possessing nuclear weapons should be called upon to consider and publish the risks posed to cultural heritage, and their mitigation strategies, in their nuclear-weapons doctrines and policies.

A woman walks on the roof of the Great Mosque of Djenné, a World Heritage Site, after praying. Photo: United Nations.

Summary

  • Renewed risk assessments for nuclear weapons and policies are taking place around the world in light of nuclear modernization and the changing geostrategic environment that is making the use of nuclear weapons more likely. As such the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons and tests have received increased attention. However, the effect on cultural heritage has so far been neglected.
  • The potential for armed conflict to destroy cultural heritage has been recognized in international law since 1954. There is significant evidence on the impact of nuclear weapons on cultural heritage including the consequences of their use in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the effect of nuclear-testing programmes in places of cultural significance since 1945. States that possess nuclear weapons have increased liabilities and responsibilities to protect cultural heritage and cultural rights. The need to protect cultural heritage should strengthen the case for reducing and eliminating nuclear weapons.
  • Failure to take into account the protection of heritage in the development of nuclear weapons policies – including disarmament, non-proliferation and arms-control negotiations – significantly undermines states’ existing commitments to protecting heritage threatened by conflict.
  • Risk assessments of the impact of nuclear weapons on cultural heritage and important cultural artefacts – and methods of preventing such catastrophic damage – should be part of protecting cultural heritage in every country and the subject of informed public debate. A new body of knowledge on the full range of nuclear weapons impacts would introduce a fresh perspective to inform decision-makers, international organizations and the public in thinking about nuclear weapons policies and practices.
  • Risk and resilience frameworks, which provide sets of solutions for risk assessments, would allow assessments of nuclear weapons threats to heritage and highlight vulnerabilities that need to be addressed. Such frameworks would provide a basis for policymakers to identify the world’s cultural heritage most at risk and help develop mitigation strategies to ensure that it is protected. In particular, states possessing nuclear weapons should be called upon to consider and publish the risks posed to cultural heritage, and their mitigation strategies, in their nuclear weapons doctrines and policies, as a contribution to transparency and confidence-building, and as a responsibility to the world’s shared heritage. International organizations, such as the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), have a role to play in bridging security perspectives with protecting cultural heritage.




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Exploring Transatlantic Responses to Far-right Populism in Europe: Simulation Exercise

Exploring Transatlantic Responses to Far-right Populism in Europe: Simulation Exercise Research paper sysadmin 1 May 2018

A new paper summarizes the findings of a recent simulation exercise exploring how governments on both sides of the Atlantic might respond to a descent towards populist authoritarianism in an EU member state.

Young protester, Serbia. Photo: urbazon/Getty Images.

Summary

  • To better understand how governments on both sides of the Atlantic might respond to a descent towards populist authoritarianism in an EU member state, Chatham House organized a simulation event involving a group of experts drawn from the public sector, academia and NGOs.
  • Simulation exercises enable the testing and modelling of the responses of different actors when presented with specific situations; participants’ interactions in a given set of circumstances are explored, and patterns of negotiation are captured and analysed.
  • In this simulation, European, US and multilateral representatives were given the task of managing relations with Baltia, a fictional Eastern European state on the verge of electing a far-right nationalist, Eurosceptic government. They were then challenged to manage their relationship with Baltia after it had elected such a government, which was pushing for a ‘leave’ vote in a planned referendum on the country’s continued EU membership.
  • The simulation highlighted a number of issues:
    • Limited instruments are available to liberal democratic governments where there is cause for concern regarding the outcome of an election in an allied country. There are relatively few tools at the disposal of governments to support political allies, or to prevent outcomes that are perceived as threatening democratic norms. The simulation reinforced the view that interventionist moves, either from the European Commission or from individual national governments, would be more likely to come in response to an unfavourable development rather than pre-emptively.
    • The EU, and caucuses of European states, are the main international interlocutors in this type of political crisis involving an EU member state. The US opted to play a limited role in the negotiations; the same was largely true for NATO, aside from its action in sharing intelligence about a potential coup in Baltia. France and Germany formed a natural working partnership, taking meetings together and coordinating policies first before discussing them with a wider European circle, although their positions did not always align.
    • The UK’s capacity to shape the outcome of collective EU discussions appeared more restricted, while Brexit also seemed to shape the response of other EU states to the developing situation in Baltia. Although member states were undoubtedly reluctant to see another country go down this route, they were also resolute in demonstrating a unity of approach and limited flexibility in the face of the new populist government’s attempt to divide them.




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Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West

Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West Book sysadmin 17 January 2019

Keir Giles surveys Russia’s history and the present day to explain why its current leadership feels it has no choice but to challenge and attack the West. Recognising and accepting that this will not change in the near future will help the West find a way of dealing with Russia without risking a deeper conflict.

This book is for anyone that cannot understand why Russia and its leaders behave as they do.

The relationship between Russia and the West is once again deep in crisis. A major reason is that Western leaders have too often believed or hoped that Russia sees the world as they do — but things look very different from Moscow. This book shows that efforts at engagement with Russia that do not take this into account are a key reason for repeated disappointment and crisis.

In confronting the West, Russia is implementing strategic and doctrinal approaches that have been consistent for centuries. The roots of current Russian behaviour and demands can be traced not just to the Soviet era, but back into Tsarist foreign and domestic policy, and further to the structure and rules of Russian society. But this also gives the US and the West pointers for how to behave — and how not to — in order to manage the challenge of Russia effectively, based on past experience of both successful and unsuccessful engagement with Moscow.

The book recognizes the reality of confrontation and provides an essential introduction to grasping why Russia sees it as inevitable. Consequently, it offers a basis for building a less crisis-prone relationship with Russia.

This book is part of the Insights series.

Praise for Moscow Rules

My only regret is that I did not have this book 35 years ago

Toomas Ilves, former President of Estonia

Should be required reading for all who deal with Western policy towards Russia

Roderic Lyne, former British Ambassador to Moscow

About the author

Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs. He also works with the Conflict Studies Research Centre (CSRC), a group of subject matter experts in Eurasian security with a particular focus on the wide range of security challenges coming from Russia.

Purchase




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Subsidies and Sustainable Agriculture: Mapping the Policy Landscape

Subsidies and Sustainable Agriculture: Mapping the Policy Landscape Research paper sysadmin 10 December 2019

Agricultural subsidies shape production and consumption patterns, with potentially significant effects on poverty, nutrition and other sustainability concerns. This paper maps the different types of support provided by governments to the agricultural sector, and highlights some of the complex political economy dynamics that underpin the relevant policies.

Aerial view of a wheat field on 24 May 2019 in Linyi, Shandong Province of China. Photo: Getty Images.

Summary

  • Agricultural subsidies, a mainstay of government policy, have a large part in shaping production and consumption patterns, with potentially significant effects as regards poverty, food security, nutrition, and other sustainability concerns such as climate change, land use practices and biodiversity.
  • There are multiple types of direct and indirect support provided by governments to various actors in the agricultural sector; and in terms of political economy, there are complex dynamics underpinning the policies that sustain these subsidies.
  • Overall, subsidies targeting producers have the most significant effect on production, and the greater trade-distorting effect. These subsidies promote domestic production and discourage imports, leading to overproduction that is largely disposed of on the international market, with the help of export subsidies. This can tend to intensify negative environmental agricultural practices, such as cultivating marginal land, unsustainable types of intensification, or incentivizing excessive pesticide and fertilizer use.
  • On the other hand, producer subsidies that are not tied to output of a specific commodity (i.e. delinked) have far fewer distorting impacts and could help to deliver sustainable outcomes. For example, this type of subsidies can require crop diversification or be linked to conservation of permanent grassland.
  • Subsidies that enable transfers to consumers, for example through food stamp programmes, also serve to delink production from consumption, can foster healthier diets, can play an important role in delivering food accessibility and security among low-income groups, and can represent one of the less trade-distorting subsidies.
  • If subsidies are to be reformed to help promote healthier diets and encourage more sustainable production, it is essential to understand not only the type and amount of support that key countries provide, but also the domestic dynamics that can shape such policies.
  • While price support, input subsidies or investment aids remain the central pillars of programmes in large developing countries such as Brazil, China or India, other economies – notably including the EU and Japan – focus on direct payments, support for general services and set-aside schemes, as well as significant border protection. The US, for its part, has tended to focus on subsidized insurance schemes and food programmes for poorer consumers.
  • If subsidies are to deliver policy objectives, their design and implementation should delink production from consumption. For example, consumer subsidies designed to deliver nutrition and food security, or payments for environmental services to enable more environmentally friendly production systems, could prove to be the most effective, least trade-distorting means of achieving more sustainable and equitable agricultural production.
  • The political economy of food means that the removal of subsidies is often highly sensitive, and tends to be met with significant resistance. However, reform that delinks support from production through a gradual transition process could ultimately prove successful in delivering effective subsidy schemes.
  • Effective subsidy schemes must by design be truly result- and performance-based, supported by robust and objective indicators. At the same time, engaging multiple actors along key commodity value chains – including leading importing and exporting countries, traders and transporters – could lead to the development of international, commodity-specific arrangements that are able to deliver effective nutrition and sustainability goals.




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30 low-key acquisitions who could pay off big

Fans and analysts spend the entire offseason speculating where the top free agents could go, but sometimes an under-the-radar pickup can end up making a world of difference. As positional competitions begin to heat up at Spring Training camps this month, MLB.com's beat writers were asked to identify one potentially overlooked acquisition for each of the 30 clubs. Here's who they came up with.




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Prospects who should vie for a roster spot

The 30 prospects below all are getting very long looks this spring with an eye toward breaking camp with the parent club. Even if they start the year in the Minors, they all should get the chance to contribute at some point in the very near future.




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Eickhoff throws first bullpen since setback

Jerad Eickhoff took his latest first step on Sunday morning at Spectrum Field. He threw a bullpen session, his first since sustaining a setback last month following carpal tunnel surgery in October.




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Hoskins would love to play alongside Harper

Will Rhys Hoskins be bummed if Bryce Harper signs elsewhere?




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Around the Horn: Angels eye improved bullpen

Leading up to the start of Spring Training, the Around the Horn series will examine each of the Angels' positional groupings heading into the 2019 season. Here's a look at the bullpen.




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30 low-key acquisitions who could pay off big

Fans and analysts spend the entire offseason speculating where the top free agents could go, but sometimes an under-the-radar pickup can end up making a world of difference. As positional competitions begin to heat up at Spring Training camps this month, MLB.com's beat writers were asked to identify one potentially overlooked acquisition for each of the 30 clubs. Here's who they came up with.




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Prospects who should vie for a roster spot

The 30 prospects below all are getting very long looks this spring with an eye toward breaking camp with the parent club. Even if they start the year in the Minors, they all should get the chance to contribute at some point in the very near future.




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Targeted TB screening could help halt rise in cases, says Public Health Scotland




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Tuberculosis: Disruption to health services from pandemic has allowed cases to reach record levels worldwide




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Correction: Functional domain and motif analyses of androgen receptor coregulator ARA70 and its differential expression in prostate cancer. [Additions and Corrections]

VOLUME 279 (2004) PAGES 33438–33446For Fig. 1B, the second, third, and fifth panels were mistakenly duplicated during article preparation as no yeast colonies were observed in these conditions. The corrected images are presented in the revised Fig. 1B. This correction does not affect the results or conclusions of the work. The authors apologize for the error.jbc;295/50/17382/F1F1F1Figure 1B.




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Low molecular weight heparin does not prevent VTE after knee arthroscopy, studies show




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Anti-bullying programme is launched by orthopaedic trainees




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Afonso Dhlakama’s Death Changes the Calculation for Peace Prospects in Mozambique

Afonso Dhlakama’s Death Changes the Calculation for Peace Prospects in Mozambique Expert comment sysadmin 4 May 2018

If politicians continue to act in good faith, the death of the opposition leader may be a significant opportunity to finally draw a line under Mozambique’s long war.

Afonso Dhlakama addresses a crowd of supporters at a campaign rally in 2014. Photo: Getty Images.

The unexpected death of opposition and ex-rebel leader Afonso Dhlakama on 3 May is a game changer for Mozambique’s politics and an almost-completed peace process. The 65-year old Dhlakama, who died of a heart attack, had led Renamo for 38 years and had totally dominated his party. Dhlakama regularly boasted that he was Mozambique’s ‘father of democracy’, despite not allowing competition within his own party, and he leaves a legacy of more than 30 years of struggle, through both armed action and peaceful politics.

A long war

Originally Renamo had been a tool for the white minority regimes of Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa to challenge the socialist Frelimo political party that took power in Mozambique in 1975. But under Dhlakama’s command, by the late 1980s Renamo had become increasingly independent and rooted in Mozambique. After Renamo’s long war with Frelimo ground to a hurting stalemate, a transition led to Mozambique’s first multiparty elections in 1994, and the creation of a new joint army. A ‘pay and scatter’ programme successfully dispersed and reintegrated many thousands of ex-combatants.

But early post-election gains did not translate to lasting peace. Disarmament was a time-limited, technical process, and devoted declining resources and attention to clusters of ex-combatants that failed to disperse. In addition, Dhlakama was allowed to maintain an armed militia under the guise of a presidential guard.

Mounting economic inequality, notably in opposition strongholds such as central Mozambique, saw Renamo made political gains and Dhlakama nearly won the 1999 presidential elections. (Some believe he did.) The result focused Frelimo’s attention on the threat that Renamo posed and, ultimately, a strategy of pursuing total Frelimo domination across the country, culminating in a crushing Frelimo victory at the 2009 elections.

This humiliated and marginalized former Renamo rebels, resulting in Dhlakama ordering their return to targeted armed violence in 2013. Frelimo’s new leader, President Filipe Nyusi, took power in 2015 and sought direct dialogue with Dhlakama. Five rounds of internationally mediated peace talks took place from July to December. Finally, in late December 2016, Dhlakama announced a unilateral truce, which was extended twice and subsequently made indefinite.

New peace talks also started and, in August 2017 and February 2018, President Nyusi and Dhlakama showed the courage to meet in person, near Renamo’s base in central Mozambique, to build up mutual trust and discuss the details of the emerging peace deal – including the demobilization or integration into government security forces for Renamo’s now mostly middle-aged gunmen.

Dhlakama the ‘Big Man’

Dhlakama’s sudden death has fundamentally changed the negotiation dynamics. He never allowed for any serious succession planning, and ensured all key decisions were his and his alone. Renamo had already decided that he would be its presidential candidate for the 2019 national elections.

His party is significantly weakened by his death and unlikely able to fully recover – but needs to try and reach consensus quickly on a successor, as it will also compete in municipal elections in October and was expecting significant gains. There will be a number of contenders to succeed him including from the parliamentary wing, led by his niece Ivone Soares, its secretary general, Manuel Bissopo, and a few others.

But Renamo’s key leverage for now remains some 1,000 middle-aged gunmen in central Mozambique who have been stoically loyal to Dhlakama since the 1980s and who have little respect for the younger generation of professional politicians based in Maputo. Some may be bought off by government offers, others integrated into localised organized crime groups and others into internal Renamo sectarianism. The risk of fragmentation is real.

Renamo’s weakness could also embolden Frelimo hardliners to seek a return to unilateral domination of Mozambique’s political landscape, and to undermine the peace process. That would be a serious tactical mistake by Frelimo, as a lasting deal is close and the death of Dhlakama could actually assist in making this settlement lasting. Dhlakama was quixotic and prone to changing his mind, often influenced by the last person he spoke to – his death potentially introduces greater predictability in negotiations and in any post-deal implementation.

President Nyusi is clearly aware of this as he hailed on state television TVM that Dhlakama was ‘a citizen who has always worked for Mozambique’ and said he was distraught at the news of his death. He stated, ‘I hope that we as Mozambicans can continue to do everything so things do not go down.’ He also addressed Renamo’s support base by saying that ‘[Dhlakama] did everything so that there would be peace. The last time he spoke to me, he said he was not going to miss out anything in peace negotiations.’

Renamo’s gunmen are fatigued and want to retire with dignity but are vulnerable to manipulation and political miscalculation by Mozambican’s positioning politicians. International partners and investors can engage, by emphasizing that sustainable peace is the only pathway to poverty reduction and inclusive economic development.

This includes assisting development and reconciliation projects in areas impacted by the renewed conflict since 2013. Long-term investment for development in Renamo’s key constituencies could help avoid fragmentation at a critical time – faith groups and NGOs may also have a key role to play.

If Mozambique’s politicians continue to act in good faith, the death of Dhlakama may constitute a significant opportunity to finally draw a line under Mozambique’s long war.




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Use of antiviral drug in poultry is blamed for drug resistant strains of avian flu




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Patients taking dabigatran to prevent stroke should avoid simvastatin and lovastatin, study suggests




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Patients’ “gut feelings” about symptoms should be taken seriously, say researchers




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Association between prediabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis




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Swimming, aerobics, and racquet sports are linked to lowest risk of cardiovascular death




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Development and validation of outcome prediction models for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: the SAHIT multinational cohort study




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Endovascular treatment for acute ischaemic stroke in routine clinical practice: prospective, observational cohort study (MR CLEAN Registry)




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GLP-1 receptor agonists: European drug regulator asks makers for evidence of self-harm




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Diabetes: Once weekly insulin could be as effective as daily injections, studies indicate




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In conversation with Rahul Gandhi

In conversation with Rahul Gandhi 6 March 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 27 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

The former president of the Indian National Congress discusses how today’s world will set the path for the world’s biggest democracy.

Soon to be the world’s largest population, and with a rapidly growing economy and an increasing presence in global affairs, India’s place in the world is changing.

Hosting the G20 this year, the New Delhi summit in September 2023 is a symbol of India’s growing might, moving from emerging to prominent player on the world stage.

However, challenges faced by the country are substantial. Frosty relations with China, ongoing tension with Pakistan, climate catastrophe, and food insecurity all represent significant global concerns to India.

Internally, the hurdles are imposing. Millions still live below the poverty line and demographic instability poses risks to the country. The state of democracy across the country is consistently questioned.

At this event, Rahul Gandhi explores key questions including:

  • How does India see the impact of the war in Ukraine?
  • Will New Delhi be able to balance relations between the West and Russia?
  • Can India offer an alternative vision for Asia that challenges China?
  • Internally, to what extent is democracy in India under strain?
  • Can India’s economy evolve to create a wide-reaching, prosperous nation in the coming years?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.




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Russia’s aggression and a crisis for multilateralism

Russia’s aggression and a crisis for multilateralism 30 March 2023 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 23 March 2023 Chatham House and Online

In conversation with Dmytro Kuleba, minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine, about how multilateral organizations struggle to respond adequately to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia pursues this war in defiance of the umbrella organization’s multiple resolutions condemning the invasion, along with its war crimes, annexation of territory, deliberate targeting of civilian nuclear infrastructure, cultural extermination, and global disinformation campaign. 

This event explores the following questions: 

  • How should the response of the UN to Russian aggression be assessed? 
  • What can be done to uphold the guiding principles of the UN Charter? 
  • Is there a ‘UN problem’ or a ‘Russia problem’? 
  • How can trust and the legitimacy of multilateral cooperation be restored in times of strategic rivalry and rising global tensions?
  • Who can drive such an effort? 
  • Is post-Soviet transfer of the UN Security Council seat to Russia a cause of current impunity? 

This event features a live in-person audience in Kyiv as well as in London and online.




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All women with suspected endometriosis should be offered ultrasound scans, says NICE

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) has recommended that all women with suspected endometriosis be offered an early transvaginal ultrasound scan, even if the pelvic or abdominal examination is normal.In its updated guideline1 on the diagnosis and management of endometriosis, NICE recommends specialist ultrasound as an alternative to magnetic resonance imaging for investigating suspected cases of the condition in secondary care.The updated guideline follows recent reports from both the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death2 and Endometriosis UK which highlighted problems with delayed diagnoses, partly owing to a lack of awareness among healthcare professionals of the condition and how it presents. Such delays can result in prolonged suffering, ill health, and risks to fertility, the reports warned.Other new and updated recommendations include asking women with suspected endometriosis if any first degree relatives have a history of the condition, and considering neurodiversity when taking into account...




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The law as a tool for EU integration could be ending

The law as a tool for EU integration could be ending Expert comment NCapeling 15 October 2021

Poland is not the only EU member state challenging the supremacy of European law, as historic change is happening in how European integration functions.

The Polish Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling that several articles of the European treaties are incompatible with the Polish constitution is prompting much debate, especially in terms of both the similarities and differences between it and rulings by the German constitutional court which have also challenged the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Pro-Europeans are keen to draw a sharp distinction between the reasoning deployed by the two courts. They see the Polish court’s challenge as an exceptional case which the European Union (EU) cannot ‘tolerate’ because it would lead to the ‘demolition of the EU’s legal order from within’ and argue the EU must take a tough approach to Poland by re-asserting the supremacy of EU law.

But this view misses a bigger long-term shift in the EU. Both the German and Polish cases illustrate some of the basic conflicts within the EU’s legal system for decades. What is being challenged increasingly openly – even since the UK left the EU – is the idea of the EU as a de facto federation in which non-majoritarian institutions such as the ECJ have final say about the quality of democracy in member states.

ECJ’s quiet revolution

Historically ‘integration through law’ was central to the European project and the ECJ was a key institution driving forward integration – usually benefiting from what Erik Stein called ‘benign neglect by the powers that be and the mass media’. Even when European integration in the form of treaties stalled in the 1960s and 1970s, ‘judicial integration’ through the ECJ continued, including its notable 1964 decision that EU law was supreme.

According to the German court’s theory of ‘constitutional pluralism’, there is in effect a constant dialogue and accommodation between the national and EU level rather than a simple primacy of EU law over national law

This self-empowerment of the ECJ – what another scholar of European constitutionalism Joseph Weiler calls ‘a quiet revolution’ – was possible because there was a ‘permissive consensus’ in member states which allowed judicial integration to continue largely unchallenged. But this has now changed as both politicians and national courts are more willing to challenge what they see as judicial overreach.

There are important differences between the approach of the German and the Polish constitutional courts. The Law and Justice Party has politicized the Polish court, packing it with judges sympathetic to that party, whereas the German court is more independent.

In addition, whereas the German court made qualified and subdued objections to measures taken in response to the euro crisis during the past decade and, in particular, the steps towards the mutualization of eurozone debt – but often backed down with ‘all bark and no bite’ as Christoph Schmid put it – the Polish court is driven by political considerations and has challenged the supremacy of EU law in a more direct and general way.

However, the German court has made it clear it is the guardian of the German constitution and seeks to impose limits on the ECJ’s self-empowerment by arguing Europe is not a federation. According to the German court’s theory of ‘constitutional pluralism’, there is in effect a constant dialogue and accommodation between the national and EU level rather than a simple primacy of EU law over national law.

The court sees itself as the ultimate arbiter of whether steps in European integration are consistent with the German constitution, and is likely to challenge any further steps in fiscal integration even if the ECJ deems them in accordance with the treaties – as it did with the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme.

Supremacy of EU law is under pressure

Right across Europe, courts and politicians are increasingly challenging the ECJ and questioning the supremacy of EU law. Michel Barnier called for France to regain ‘legal sovereignty’ and should no longer be subject to the judgments of the ECJ – an extraordinary demand from the EU Brexit negotiator who regularly lectured the UK about the sanctity of the EU’s legal order.

The Polish challenge is part of a historic change in how European integration functions – or does not function

Other possible French presidential candidates such as Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour are also openly challenging the primacy of EU law. The UK, of course, is fighting its own battle with the EU about the ECJ’s role in the Northern Ireland Protocol.

It was not the current Polish government but the people of France and the Netherlands who blocked the attempt at explicit constitutionalisation of the EU in a referendum just one year after the 2004 enlargement. Whereas the Constitutional Treaty ‘would have codified the doctrine of EU legal supremacy’, that provision was dropped from its successor the Lisbon Treaty, again indicating consensus on EU legal supremacy is not as strong as is often claimed.




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Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally

Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally Expert comment NCapeling 16 March 2022

The effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict.

Russia and Ukraine rank 11th and 55th respectively in terms of their national economies but, for the global supply of critical resources such as energy, food, and minerals, these two countries together are far bigger hitters – and both the threat and reality of resource flows from them being reduced have already driven up global prices.

The world is already facing a cost-of-living squeeze coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, so further price spikes or supply constraints have the potential to seriously undermine food and energy security, equitable access to basic goods and services, and social stability around the world – which can then potentially create systemic risks for economies and societies.

The global implications of the Ukraine conflict are only just beginning to be explored fully but the immediate impacts of the crisis on global markets are already well-documented. In the first few days after Russia’s invasion, energy prices spiked, triggering further fertilizer price rises – as fertilizer production is highly energy intensive – which in turn is contributing to food price rises because fertilizer costs are an important factor in food production.

Further price spikes or supply constraints have the potential to seriously undermine food and energy security, equitable access to basic goods and services, and social stability around the world

Interruptions to shipping in the region around Ukraine – as well as globally – have impeded the flow of goods which pushed prices up even further, while economic sanctions on cross-border flows of goods and finance are further adding to market pressures. But this is just the start – these impacts will bring ripple effects which propagate far beyond their point of origin, known as ‘cascading risks’.

Risk is a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability – in terms of the Ukraine invasion, the hazard is the conflict and its immediate impacts on the societies and economies of Ukraine and Russia, while exposure relates to the degree to which other countries are likely to be affected depending on how much they are integrated into the global economy or the ‘just in time’ nature of their supply chains.

Vulnerability relates to a society’s capacity to mitigate the harmful impacts of the conflict, such as controlling borders, sourcing alternative goods from suppliers, or protecting against price or supply shocks.

Risk cascades – the second- and third-order impacts of the original hazard and of responses to that hazard – can interact across sectoral boundaries – as with energy and food, for example – and their compound effect can lead to overall systemic risks for society.

Anticipating this potential is essential to understanding the nature and scale of the global ramifications being felt from the Ukraine conflict. Recent work in the UK to assess levels of cascading risks resulting from a changing climate – the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – provides a valuable framework for thinking about this area.

It examines key pathways for risk to cascade through global systems – when applied to the situation in Ukraine, these pathways and their interactions offer an indication of the scale of crisis that citizens face far beyond Ukraine’s and Russia’s borders.

Interruptions to the flows of goods and energy

In globalized trade networks, localized disruption to supply chains rapidly yields widespread international impacts – of particular concern is the immediate supply of food because most countries rely on lean supply chains and some may only have a few days food within their own borders.

Experience from previous food price crises indicate even small interruptions to trade can result in runs on the market and rapid price inflation. In the case of this conflict, the trade interruption will be far from small because, between them, Russia and Ukraine export around one-quarter of all traded wheat, more than three-quarters of traded sunflower oil, and one-sixth of traded maize.

Given many people are understandably fleeing this conflict, other countries may struggle to cope as the cost-of-living crisis and urgent efforts to bolster national security infrastructure may squeeze available public funds

Energy markets are also a concern because many countries use more energy than they produce and therefore rely on imports of energy or fuel for domestic use. Russia produces around ten per cent of the world’s commercial energy with a concentration of sales in major regions such as the European Union (EU) and China.

As with food, a shortfall in energy provision leads to market runs and rapid inflation as actors compete in a tightening space, while poorly designed policy interventions by nations trying to ensure their own security add further pressure to global supply and worsen price rises. In addition, the closely interconnected nature of energy markets means disruption to one fuel – such as gas in this case – affects global prices for other forms of energy.

The impact of moving people and money

As the last decade richly illustrates, the cross-border flows of people impact those societies absorbing them – for example, contributing to a rise in nationalism – as well as increase the costs of supplying essential resources. Given many people are understandably fleeing this conflict, other countries may struggle to cope as the cost-of-living crisis and urgent efforts to bolster national security infrastructure may squeeze available public funds.

Financial flows are crucial to the functioning of global economies, whether for inward investment or insurance and – as Russian citizens may be about to discover – restricting the global flow of money has a serious impact on households. Beyond Russia, the outflow of money from major financial centres such as London to meet insurance claims or to enable infrastructure reinvestment post-conflict may also have severe knock-on economic impacts.

The impact on governance and health

The global spikes in energy and food prices resulting from these supply chain disruptions will see many countries struggle with rising food and energy insecurity as well as increased inequality. Taken together these conditions create many issues beyond immigration pressures and the associated politics, including increased inequality and civil unrest.

This potentially destabilizes governments which has consequences for the stability of an entire region such as interrupted supply chains, the need to deploy peacekeeping forces, or significant flows of aid – all with global consequences far beyond the countries in question.

Populations may suffer mental health impacts arising from the Ukraine invasion, whether from the trauma of being forced to leave home to escape conflict, anxiety for the wellbeing and safety of families and friends caught up in it, or a more general anxiety arising from the perception of living in an unstable world.




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Culture notes: Populists of the world unite

Culture notes: Populists of the world unite The World Today rsoppelsa.drupal 25 May 2022

America’s hard-right has successfully played a long game at home, and now it’s schmoozing Europe. We should be worried, says Catherine Fieschi

The politics of advanced democracies is a rather Janus-faced affair these days. No sooner have we breathed a sigh of relief at the results of the French presidential election than a leaked United States Supreme Court document on Roe v Wade signals American abortion rights are under threat. 

Yes, Europe seems to be maintaining political unity in its support of Ukraine, and the US is lavishing eye-watering sums on it both in military and humanitarian aid. Yet one cannot help but feel that these might be short-lived spells of relief in the face of mounting storm clouds on the political horizon. Both at the domestic and international level, populist politics looks to be gathering pace still. 

On the domestic front, we should be cautious in our relief. In the French elections Emmanuel Macron was indeed re-elected, and comfortably so, but there is no denying the space occupied by populist politicians on the left and the right. In the first round, Marine Le Pen gained 23 per cent of the vote, left populist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon 22 per cent, and far-right candidate Éric Zemmour 7 per cent. Add to this a record low turnout, and the picture is one of a system in which mainstream politics has overall been rejected in favour of various populist options. 

The Hungarians weren’t so lucky, and Viktor Orbán’s capture of the media and quashing of the opposition over his years in power delivered solid victory. 

What should be cause for further concern is what is happening in the United States, as well as its potential impact on European politics. A quick flick through American politics today suggests dysfunctionalities of staggering magnitude and depth, and the full extent of the success of the right-wing Republican project, as confirmed by the intention to reverse Roe v Wade. 

Any reversal of Roe v Wade is a further step towards a drastic re-territorialization of American politics: into red states and blue states, into urban v rural, into places where taxes fund public education and public goods and where they won’t. It is also about a re-territorialization of institutional power away from the federal and into state institutions. 

The words of JD Vance, the Ohio Republican senatorial candidate – author of the rather good memoir Hillbilly Elegy – pander to an ‘American heartlands’ view of the United States’ role in the world. Asked about the fate of Ukraine, Vance simply replied that he ‘didn’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another’. 

On an even more basic level, we would do well to keep in mind that there were 440 anti-voter bills in 49 states at the end of 2021 and rising, calling into question citizens’ basic rights to vote. Republicans have pursued this agenda relentlessly. They have played a long game and invested in media, education and minor and not so minor projects – all of which have secured them a social and political base that is well-disposed towards the deep reversal of the American liberal global project and that of its allies across the world.

The arrival of the Fox News-driven Conservative Political Action Conference in Hungary in May is deeply worrying

And it is perhaps on this last point that we should be most alarmed. Between May 18-20, the Conservative Political Action Conference, an American conclave of the right, was held in Europe. Viktor Orbán gave the keynote speech, and other speakers included the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, and the president of Spain’s far-right party Vox, Santiago Abascal, as well as some well-known American Trumpian voices, including Trump himself. Marine Le Pen, whose earlier appearance at the conference had met with rapturous applause, chose not to cosy-up too closely to Orbán in the run-up to the French parliamentary elections in June but she sent her deputy. 

The export of the Fox News-driven conference from across the Atlantic is deeply worrying. Up until now populists have failed in their attempts at international alliances. At the European Union level their nationalism has always been in the way of their working together, and their groups tend to be short-lived or ineffective as a result. As for American attempts in Europe, the one led by Steve Bannon, the former White House adviser, in 2020 that aimed to create an Academy for the Judeo-Christian West ended as a damp squib – possibly not helped by his dismissal from the White House amid charges of defrauding donors.

But something may be changing: the conference’s embrace of Orbán and an international smattering of ‘strongmen’ hailing from the hard-right, aligned with Putin and sup-ported by Trump and a media empire, suggests that we are entering a Trumpian-infused second act that in its triumphal revanchism is seeking to create an international right-wing populist, or even authoritarian front. This is about politics, media, but also money – something European populist parties have been short of. As Marine Le Pen explained to French voters, her party is so poor it had to borrow money from a Russian bank.  

As some have pointed out, the Russian aggression against Ukraine has complicated matters when it comes to Russian funding of disinformation to the West. Many routes have been shut down. But a new route between the US and Hungary as a platform to floss Europe with dirty money is a good replacement to the old Russian route.