The story of Thomas & Ann Stone family : including Helping Hobart's Orphans, the King's Orphan School for Boys 1831-1836 / Alexander E.H. Stone.
The Kuerschner story : 1848 - 1999 / compiled by Gerald Kuerschner.
Our Lady of Grace family page of history : a bookweek bicentennial project / edited by Janeen Brian.
A family history Siglin to Siegele 1530 to 2019 : from Ditzingen, Germany over land and sea / Ian G. Siegele.
South Australian history sources / by Andrew Guy Peake.
Traegers in Australia. 3, Ernst's story : the story of Ernst Wilhelm Traeger and Johanne Dorothea nee Lissmann, and their descendants, 1856-2018.
Fuhlbohm family history : a collection of memorabilia of our ancestors and families in Germany, USA, and Australia / by Oscar Fuhlbohm.
Living through English history : stories of the Urlwin, Brittridge, Vasper, Partridge and Ellerby families / Janet McLeod.
From Wends we came : the story of Johann and Maria Huppatz & their descendants / compiled by Frank Huppatz and Rone McDonnell.
From alms house to first nation : a story of my ancestors in South Australia : a Sherwell family story / by Pamela Coad (nee Sherwell).
Geoff Nixon, man of the land : a history of Gunniguldrie and the Nixon family / Robert Nixon.
Volume 24 Item 04: William Thomas Manners and customs of Aborigines - Miscellaneous scraps, ca. 1858
CNN legal analysts say Barr dropping the Flynn case shows 'the fix was in.' Barr says winners write history.
The Justice Department announced Thursday that it is dropping its criminal case against President Trump's first national security adviser Michael Flynn. Flynn twice admitted in court he lied to the FBI about his conversations with Russia's U.S. ambassador, and then cooperated in Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation. It was an unusual move by the Justice Department, and CNN's legal and political analysts smelled a rat."Attorney General [William] Barr is already being accused of creating a special justice system just for President Trump's friends," and this will only feed that perception, CNN's Jake Tapper suggested. Political correspondent Sara Murray agreed, noting that the prosecutor in the case, Brandon Van Grack, withdrew right before the Justice Department submitted its filing, just like when Barr intervened to request a reduced sentence for Roger Stone.National security correspondent Jim Sciutto laid out several reason why the substance of Flynn's admitted lie was a big deal, and chief legal analyst Jeffrey Toobin was appalled. "It is one of the most incredible legal documents I have read, and certainly something that I never expected to see from the United States Department of Justice," Toobin said. "The idea that the Justice Department would invent an argument -- an argument that the judge in this case has already rejected -- and say that's a basis for dropping a case where a defendant admitted his guilt shows that this is a case where the fix was in."Barr told CBS News' Cathrine Herridge on Thursday that dropping Flynn's case actually "sends the message that there is one standard of justice in this country." Herridge told Barr he would take flak for this, asking: "When history looks back on this decision, how do you think it will be written?" Barr laughed: "Well, history's written by the winners. So it largely depends on who's writing the history." Watch below. More stories from theweek.com Outed CIA agent Valerie Plame is running for Congress, and her launch video looks like a spy movie trailer 7 scathing cartoons about America's rush to reopen Trump says he couldn't have exposed WWII vets to COVID-19 because the wind was blowing the wrong way
Bayes Factors for Partially Observed Stochastic Epidemic Models
Muteb Alharthi, Theodore Kypraios, Philip D. O’Neill.
Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 927--956.
Abstract:
We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic modelling literature before, they can be hard to compute and little attention has been given to fundamental questions concerning their utility. In this paper we derive analytic expressions for Bayes factors given complete observation through time, which suggest practical guidelines for model choice problems. We adapt the power posterior method for computing Bayes factors so as to account for missing data and apply this approach to partially observed epidemics. For comparison, we also explore the use of a deviance information criterion for missing data scenarios. The methods are illustrated via examples involving both simulated and real data.
Jointly Robust Prior for Gaussian Stochastic Process in Emulation, Calibration and Variable Selection
Mengyang Gu.
Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 877--905.
Abstract:
Gaussian stochastic process (GaSP) has been widely used in two fundamental problems in uncertainty quantification, namely the emulation and calibration of mathematical models. Some objective priors, such as the reference prior, are studied in the context of emulating (approximating) computationally expensive mathematical models. In this work, we introduce a new class of priors, called the jointly robust prior, for both the emulation and calibration. This prior is designed to maintain various advantages from the reference prior. In emulation, the jointly robust prior has an appropriate tail decay rate as the reference prior, and is computationally simpler than the reference prior in parameter estimation. Moreover, the marginal posterior mode estimation with the jointly robust prior can separate the influential and inert inputs in mathematical models, while the reference prior does not have this property. We establish the posterior propriety for a large class of priors in calibration, including the reference prior and jointly robust prior in general scenarios, but the jointly robust prior is preferred because the calibrated mathematical model typically predicts the reality well. The jointly robust prior is used as the default prior in two new R packages, called “RobustGaSP” and “RobustCalibration”, available on CRAN for emulation and calibration, respectively.
Stochastic Approximations to the Pitman–Yor Process
Julyan Arbel, Pierpaolo De Blasi, Igor Prünster.
Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 753--771.
Abstract:
In this paper we consider approximations to the popular Pitman–Yor process obtained by truncating the stick-breaking representation. The truncation is determined by a random stopping rule that achieves an almost sure control on the approximation error in total variation distance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the random truncation point as the approximation error $epsilon$ goes to zero in terms of a polynomially tilted positive stable random variable. The practical usefulness and effectiveness of this theoretical result is demonstrated by devising a sampling algorithm to approximate functionals of the $epsilon$ -version of the Pitman–Yor process.
Statistical Inference for the Evolutionary History of Cancer Genomes
Khanh N. Dinh, Roman Jaksik, Marek Kimmel, Amaury Lambert, Simon Tavaré.
Source: Statistical Science, Volume 35, Number 1, 129--144.
Abstract:
Recent years have seen considerable work on inference about cancer evolution from mutations identified in cancer samples. Much of the modeling work has been based on classical models of population genetics, generalized to accommodate time-varying cell population size. Reverse-time, genealogical views of such models, commonly known as coalescents, have been used to infer aspects of the past of growing populations. Another approach is to use branching processes, the simplest scenario being the classical linear birth-death process. Inference from evolutionary models of DNA often exploits summary statistics of the sequence data, a common one being the so-called Site Frequency Spectrum (SFS). In a bulk tumor sequencing experiment, we can estimate for each site at which a novel somatic point mutation has arisen, the proportion of cells that carry that mutation. These numbers are then grouped into collections of sites which have similar mutant fractions. We examine how the SFS based on birth-death processes differs from those based on the coalescent model. This may stem from the different sampling mechanisms in the two approaches. However, we also show that despite this, they are quantitatively comparable for the range of parameters typical for tumor cell populations. We also present a model of tumor evolution with selective sweeps, and demonstrate how it may help in understanding the history of a tumor as well as the influence of data pre-processing. We illustrate the theory with applications to several examples from The Cancer Genome Atlas tumors.
Rassegna trimestrale BRI settembre 2017: Le prospettive positive in un contesto di bassa inflazione alimentano l'assunzione di rischio
Italian translation of the BIS press release about the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2017
End-of-day stock quote: WTFC: 38.64
Wintrust Financial Corporation Announces Cash Dividends, Increasing Quarterly Common Stock Dividend Rate 12%
Wintrust Financial Corporation to Present at Raymond James 41st Annual Institutional Investors Conference
Wintrust Financial Corporation Announces Pricing of $250 Million Preferred Stock Offering
How AI Can Improve Customer Retention
Customer attrition and churn are not new problems. Anyone who has spent time in the sales world has heard statistics around the cost of acquiring a new customer. It can be five to 25 times more expensive to acquire a new customer than to retain an existing one. Improving customer retention by just 5 percent can increase profits by 25-95 percent, depending on your industry and company size.
How to Adapt Your Customer Service When Crisis Strikes
Customer service doesn't have to suffer while your company goes through a difficult transition. In fact, 78 percent of consumers said they stopped doing business with a company because of poor customer service. Now is the time to show your most valuable buyers how you'll keep them informed, updated and respected throughout this crisis by adapting your practices to the moment.
[~21.8 MB mp3] A Leading Figure In The New Apostolic Reformation
Story: Several apostles affiliated with the movement helped organize or spoke at Rick Perry's recent prayer rally. A leading apostle, C. Peter Wagner, talks about the movement and its missions, which include acquiring leadership positions in government, the media, and arts and entertainment.
From plot to plate – a ‘kitchen garden' story
In its simplest form, a kitchen garden produces fresh fruits, vegetables and herbs for delicious, healthy meals. Research suggests that kitchen gardens can supply up to half of all non-staple food needs, as well as a significant number of vitamins and minerals. This makes them an invaluable tool for food security in vulnerable communities. ‘Imagine one day you lost everything you owned. [...]
Keeping food histories alive
We often talk about the future of food, but what about its history? In our day to day lives, we might not realize that some of our staple foods have come from extraordinary agricultural traditions that are deeply rooted in our cultures and identity.
First report on the SDG indicators under FAO custodianship
Four years into the 2030 Agenda and there is a pressing need to understand where the world stands in eradicating hunger and food insecurity, as well as ensuring sustainable [...]
SDG indicators under FAO custodianship: What's new?
Since the adoption of the 2030 Agenda, FAO has produced a wealth of materials aimed at promoting knowledge and understanding related to the SDG Indicators under FAO custodianship.
As the custodian [...]
A Brief History of Smokey Bear, the Forest Service's Legendary Mascot
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 2001 ☚ ☚ ☚ A slavish adaptation of a book with potential
Why Shipbuilders Were Forced to Stop Using British Oak
After the Napoleonic Wars caused a shortage of British Oak, frigate builders looked all over the empire for an alternative. They found one in India
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Stolen Collection of Persian Poetry Found With Help of 'Indiana Jones of the Art World' Goes on Auction
Thrift Store Find Identified as Original Salvador Dalí Print
The Spanish Surrealist painted a series of 100 watercolors inspired by Dante's "Divine Comedy"