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Will COVID-19 rebalance America’s uneven economic geography? Don’t bet on it.

With the national economy virtually immobilized as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it might seem like the crisis is going to mute the issue of regional economic divergence and its pattern of booming superstar cities and depressed, left-behind places. But don’t be so sure about that. In fact, the pandemic might intensify the unevenness…

       




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How COVID-19 will change the nation’s long-term economic trends, according to Brookings Metro scholars

Will the coronavirus change everything? While that sentiment feels true to the enormity of the crisis, it likely isn’t quite right, as scholars from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program have been exploring since the pandemic began. Instead, the COVID-19 crisis seems poised to accelerate or intensify many economic and metropolitan trends that were already underway, with huge…

       




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The next COVID-19 relief bill must include massive aid to states, especially the hardest-hit areas

Amid rising layoffs and rampant uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s a good thing that Democrats in the House of Representatives say they plan to move quickly to advance the next big coronavirus relief package. Especially important is the fact that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) seems determined to build the next package around a generous infusion…

       




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The economic costs of reopening too soon

       




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The effect of COVID-19 and disease suppression policies on labor markets: A preliminary analysis of the data

World leaders are deliberating when and how to re-open business operations amidst considerable uncertainty as to the economic consequences of the coronavirus. One pressing question is whether or not countries that have remained relatively open have managed to escape at least some of the economic harm, and whether that harm is related to the spread…

       




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What COVID-19 means for America’s child welfare system

The COVID-19 crisis has allowed a revealing look into the shortcomings of the U.S.’s child welfare system. While no institution has proved strong enough to operate effectively and efficiently under the unprecedented circumstances brought on by COVID-19, the crisis has unveiled holes in the child welfare system that call for both immediate and long-term action.…

       




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Students have lost learning due to COVID-19. Here are the economic consequences.

Because of the COVID-19 crisis, the US economy has nearly ground to a halt. Tens of millions of workers are now seeing their jobs and livelihoods disappear—in some cases, permanently. Many businesses will never reopen, especially those that have or had large debts to manage. State and federal lawmakers have responded by pouring trillions of…

       




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Women’s work boosts middle class incomes but creates a family time squeeze that needs to be eased

In the early part of the 20th century, women sought and gained many legal rights, including the right to vote as part of the 19th Amendment. Their entry into the workforce, into occupations previously reserved for men, and into the social and political life of the nation should be celebrated. The biggest remaining challenge is…

       




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Supporting students and promoting economic recovery in the time of COVID-19

COVID-19 has upended, along with everything else, the balance sheets of the nation’s elementary and secondary schools. As soon as school buildings closed, districts faced new costs associated with distance learning, ranging from physically distributing instructional packets and up to three meals a day, to supplying instructional programming for television and distributing Chromebooks and internet…

       




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The Complex Interplay of Cities, Corporations and Climate

Across the world, cities are grappling with climate change. While half of the world’s population now lives in cities, more than 70 percent of carbon emissions originate in cities. The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the UN’s 2016 Sustainable Development Goals, and the recent UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany have all recognized that cities…

       




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When climate activism and nationalism collide

There is an overwhelming consensus among scientists that this decade will be the last window for humanity to change the current global trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions so that the world can get close to zero net emissions by around 2050, and thus avoid potentially catastrophic climate risks. But although the massive technological and economic…

       




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What COVID-19 means for international cooperation

Throughout history, crisis and human progress have often gone hand in hand. While the growing COVID-19 pandemic could strengthen nationalism and isolationism and accelerate the retreat from globalization, the outbreak also could spur a new wave of international cooperation of the sort that emerged after World War II. COVID-19 may become not only a huge…

       




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A social distancing reading list from Brookings Global Economy and Development

During this unusual time of flexible schedules and more time at home, many of us may have increased opportunities for long-form reading. Below, the scholars and staff from the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings offer their recommendations for books to read during this time. Max Bouchet recommends The Nation City: Why Mayors Are…

       




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The COVID-19 solidarity test

The COVID-19 crisis represents an unprecedented test of human solidarity. Will the wealthy—or, indeed, all those with stable incomes or savings cushions—embrace measures to support the poor and economically insecure? Will the young, among whom the mortality rate is lower, make sacrifices to protect the old? And will people in rich countries accept resource transfers…

       




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President Hu Jintao’s Visit: The Economic Challenges and Opportunities

On the eve of President Hu Jintao's long-anticipated visit to Washington, critical economic policy issues loom large for both the U.S. and China. Over the past two decades, China has transformed into a major economic power and continues to play a growing role in the global community. Its ascension is likely to be one of…

       




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People In Transition: Assessing the Economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS

After 17 years of transition to market economies in central and eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), are people better off now than they were in 1989? Brookings Global recently hosted a presentation by Senior Fellow and European Bank for Reconstruction & Development (EBRD) Chief Economist, Erik Berglöf, on the 2007 Transition…

       




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The future of school accountability under ESSA

With the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) replacing No Child Left Behind as the new federal education law, states have gained greater freedom to personalize their education policies. ESSA’s promise of decentralization is a victory for state education leaders, but also transfers to them the responsibility of ensuring that school systems are held accountable. During…

       




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An open letter to America’s college presidents and education school deans:

Schools of education are providing one of the most important services in America today, training our future teachers who will prepare our children to succeed in work and in life. No other responsibility is more directly linked to our future. The world’s strongest economy relies on a skilled and creative workforce. The world’s oldest democracy…

       




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Educational equality and excellence will drive a stronger economy

This election taught me two things. The first is obvious: We live in a deeply divided nation. The second, while subtle, is incredibly important: The election was a massive cry for help. People across the country–on both sides of the political spectrum–feel they have been left behind and are fearful their basic needs will continue…

       




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Free college for all will power our 21st-century economy and empower our democracy

Education beyond high school is essential for Americans to prosper in the 21st century. Looking into the past, we have seen the majority of those earning a college degree or other postsecondary credential achieve higher earnings, quality of life, civic engagement, and other positive outcomes. Looking ahead, we see a new future where the vast…

       




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Comments on “How automation and other forms of IT affect the middle class: Assessing the estimates” by Jaimovich and Siu

Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu have written a very helpful and useful paper that summarizes the empirical literature by labor economists on how automation affect the labor market and the middle class. Their main arguments can be summarized as follows: The labor markets in the US (and other industrialized countries) has become increasingly “polarized” in…

       




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Think Tank 20 - Growth, Convergence, and Income Distribution: The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit


      
 
 




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Turkey after the coup attempt


Event Information

July 20, 2016
9:30 AM - 11:00 AM EDT

Falk Auditorium
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Register for the Event

The failed coup in Turkey on July 15 to 16, organized by factions within the Turkish military in an attempt to overthrow the government of President Erdoğan, represents both a victory and a new trial for Turkish democracy. Although the Turkish citizenry brought the country back from the brink of anarchy and civil war, many analysts see last week’s events as a consequence of the political instability and discord that has been mounting for years as Erdoğan has consolidated powers, marginalized the opposition, and redefined Turkey’s democracy. How will the president react in the aftermath of the coup? Will the democratic backsliding intensify, or can the thwarted coup offer new opportunity for reconciling the deeply-polarized nation?

The upheaval and political instability in Turkey also holds significant implications for Turkey’s foreign policy and the fate of a neighboring region already in turmoil from the war in Syria and insecurity in Iraq. The West desperately needs a stable, democratic, and predictable partner in its NATO-ally Turkey to address the many challenges besetting the region and to fight the Islamic State (or ISIS). How will recent events affect regional stability and Turkey’s cooperation with the West on security issues, including the resettlement of Syrian refugees? What does the failed coup mean for the coalition against ISIS engagement in Syria?

On July 20, the Foreign Policy program (FP) at Brookings hosted a panel discussion to consider these questions and other domestic and international consequences of the coup attempt in Turkey. Brookings Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on the United States and Europe Fiona Hill introduced and moderated a wide-ranging conversation featuring FP Senior Fellows Shadi Hamid, Kemal Kirişci, Michael O'Hanlon, and Ömer Taşpınar.

After the discussion, the speakers took questions from the audience.

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What’s the government done to relieve student loan borrowers of their burden during the corona crisis?

Forty-two million Americans, or one in every eight, have student loans, and they owe a total of $1.6 trillion, the second largest pool of consumer credit after mortgages. According to the Federal Reserve, 20 percent of adult borrowers who borrowed for their own educations were behind on their payments in 2018. Of those who are…

       




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Webinar: Reopening the coronavirus-closed economy — Principles and tradeoffs

In an extraordinary response to an extraordinary public health challenge, the U.S. government has forced much of the economy to shut down. We now face the challenge of deciding when and how to reopen it. This is both vital and complicated. Wait too long—maintain the lockdown until we have a vaccine, for instance—and we’ll have another Great Depression. Move too soon, and we…

       




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Hutchins Roundup: Consumer spending, salary history bans, and more.

Studies in this week’s Hutchins Roundup find that consumer spending has fallen sharply because of COVID-19, salary history bans have increased women’s earnings relative to men’s, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Consumer spending falls sharply because of COVID-19…

       




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What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?

The coronavirus crisis in the United States—and the associated business closures, event cancellations, and work-from-home policies—has triggered a deep economic downturn of uncertain duration. The Federal Reserve has stepped in with a broad array of actions to limit the economic damage from the pandemic, including up to $2.3 trillion in lending to support households, employers, financial…

       




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How did COVID-19 disrupt the market for U.S. Treasury debt?

The COVID-19 pandemic—in addition to posing a severe threat to public health—has disrupted the economy and financial markets, and prompted a strong desire among investors for safe and liquid securities. In that environment, one might expect U.S. Treasury securities to be the investment of choice, but for a while in March, the $18 trillion market…

       




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The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery

The economic activity of the U.S. has plummeted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment has soared—largely the result of social distancing policies designed to slow the spread of the virus. The depth and speed of the decline will rival that of the Great Depression. But will the aftermath be as painful? Or…

       




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Making sense of the monthly jobs report during the COVID-19 pandemic

The monthly jobs report—the unemployment rate from one survey and the change in employer payrolls from another survey—is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, particularly at a time of an economic crisis like today. Here’s a look at how these data are collected and how to interpret them during the COVID-19 pandemic. What…

       




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How well-intentioned privacy laws can contribute to wrongful convictions

In 2019, an innocent man was jailed in New York City after the complaining witness showed police screenshots of harassing text messages and recordings of threatening voicemails that the man allegedly sent in violation of a protective order. The man’s Legal Aid Society defense attorney subpoenaed records from SpoofCard, a company that lets people send…

       




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Why a proposed HUD rule could worsen algorithm-driven housing discrimination

In 1968 Congress passed and President Lyndon B. Johnson then signed into law the Fair Housing Act (FHA), which prohibits housing-related discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, disability, familial status, and national origin. Administrative rulemaking and court cases in the decades since the FHA’s enactment have helped shape a framework that, for…

       




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Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach

Abstract

An individual-based computational model of smallpox epidemics in a two-town county is presented and used to develop strategies for bioterror containment. A powerful and feasible combination of preemptive and reactive vaccination and isolation strategies is developed which achieves epidemic quenching while minimizing risks of adverse side effects. Calibration of the model to historical data is described. Various model extensions and applications to other public health problems are noted.

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Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror : An Individual-Based Computational Approach


Brookings Institution Press 2004 55pp.

In the United States, routine smallpox vaccination ended in 1972. The level of immunity remaining in the U.S. population is uncertain, but is generally assumed to be quite low. Smallpox is a deadly and infectious pathogen with a fatality rate of 30 percent. If smallpox were successfully deployed as an agent of bioterrorism today, the public health and economic consequences could be devastating.

Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror describes the scientific results and policy implications of a simulation of a smallpox epidemic in a two-town county. The model was developed by an interdisicplinary team from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Brookings Institution Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, employing agent-based and other advanced computational techniques. Such models are playing a critical role in the crafting of a national strategy for the containment of smallpox by providing public health policymakers with a variety of novel and feasible approaches to vaccination and isolation under different circumstances. The extension of these techniques to the containment of emerging pathogens, such as SARS, is discussed.

About the Authors:
Joshua M. Epstein and Shubha Chakravarty are with the Brookings Institution. Derek A. T. Cummings, Ramesh M. Singha, and Donald S. Burke are with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Derek Cummings
Donald S. Burke
Joshua M. Epstein
Ramesh M. Singa
Shubha Chakravarty

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  • {9ABF977A-E4A6-41C8-B030-0FD655E07DBF}, 978-0-8157-2455-1, $19.95 Add to Cart
      
 
 




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Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations

Published version of the CSED October 2007 Working Paper

ABSTRACT

Background

In classical mathematical epidemiology, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during epidemics. They do not endogenously engage, for example, in social distancing based on fear. Yet, adaptive behavior is well-documented in true epidemics. We explore the effect of including such behavior in models of epidemic dynamics.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using both nonlinear dynamical systems and agent-based computation, we model two interacting contagion processes: one of disease and one of fear of the disease. Individuals can “contract” fear through contact with individuals who are infected with the disease (the sick), infected with fear only (the scared), and infected with both fear and disease (the sick and scared). Scared individuals–whether sick or not–may remove themselves from circulation with some probability, which affects the contact dynamic, and thus the disease epidemic proper. If we allow individuals to recover from fear and return to circulation, the coupled dynamics become quite rich, and can include multiple waves of infection. We also study flight as a behavioral response.

Conclusions/Significance

In a spatially extended setting, even relatively small levels of fear-inspired flight can have a dramatic impact on spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics. Self-isolation and spatial flight are only two of many possible actions that fear-infected individuals may take. Our main point is that behavioral adaptation of some sort must be considered.”

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View factsheet »

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Publication: PLoS One Journal
      
 
 




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Made in Africa: manufacturing and economic growth on the continent

In this week’s episode, John Page, a senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program, assesses the potential role of several economic strategies in transforming Africa’s industrial development for the global economy. “Between now and about 2030, the estimates are that as many as 85 million jobs at [the] bottom end of manufacturing will…

      
 
 




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Commodities, industry, and the African Growth Miracle

The 2016 Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank occur during uncertain times for the “African Growth Miracle.” After more than two decades of sustained economic expansion, growth in sub-Saharan Africa slowed to 3.4 percent in 2015, the weakest performance since 2009. The growth slow-down reflects lower commodity prices, declining growth…

      
 
 




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Made in Africa: Toward an industrialization strategy for the continent

Since 1995, Africa’s explosive economic growth has taken place without the changes in economic structure that normally occur as incomes per person rise. In particular, Africa’s experience with industrialization has been disappointing, especially as, historically, industry has been a driving force behind structural change. The East Asian “Miracle” is a manufacturing success story, but sub-Saharan…

      
 
 




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Overcoming barriers: Sustainable development, productive cities, and structural transformation in Africa

Against a background of protracted decline in global commodity prices and renewed focus on the Africa rising narrative, Africa is proving resilient, underpinned by strong economic performance in non-commodity exporting countries. The rise of African cities contains the potential for new engines for the continent’s structural transformation, if harnessed properly. However, the susceptibility of Africa’s…

      
 
 




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Are certain countries doomed to remain emerging?

1.1 What's the issue? Incomes in developed and developing countries have been converging, especially since the turn of the century, but the unevenness of that trajectory merits further examination. Beginning in the early the 2000s, the average per capita income of developing countries (adjusted for purchasing power parity) has increased substantially relative to the average…

      
 
 




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“The people vs. finance”: Europe needs a new strategy to counter Italian populists

Rather than Italy leaving the euro, it’s now that the euros are leaving Italy. In the recent weeks, after doubts emerged about the government’s will to remain in the European monetary union, Italians have transferred dozens of billions of euros across the borders.  Only a few days after the formation of the new government, the financial situation almost slid out of control. Italy’s liabilities with the euro-area (as tracked by…

       




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Trans-Atlantic Scorecard – January 2019

Welcome to the second edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations…

       




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Trans-Atlantic Scorecard – April 2019

Welcome to the third edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations…

       




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Italy’s political turmoil shows that parliaments can confront populists

Italy has a certain experience in changes of government, having seen 68 different governments in 73 years. However, even by Italian standards, what happened this summer to the first populist government in an advanced economy is unusual, to say the least. It is also instructive for other countries, showing the key roles of parliaments and…

       




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Trans-Atlantic Scorecard – October 2019

Welcome to the fifth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations…

       




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Trans-Atlantic Scorecard – January 2020

Welcome to the sixth edition of the Trans-Atlantic Scorecard, a quarterly evaluation of U.S.-European relations produced by Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), as part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. To produce the Scorecard, we poll Brookings scholars and other experts on the present state of U.S. relations…

       




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Transportation and the Economy

Opportunity 08 hosted U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters for a discussion of America's transportation infrastructure. Secretary Peters focused on the challenges facing the nation’s transportation network, and how local, state and national leaders can take advantage of new technology and approaches to unleash a new wave of transportation investments in this country.

      
 
 




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What About Microeconomics?

Robert Crandall and Clifford Winston respond to Paul Krugman's recent New York Times Magazine article which laments the current state of macroeconomics. The authors call attention to the fact that Krugman did not mention the state of microeconomics which, they argue, has not suffered any serious intellectual setbacks from the current Great Recession.

      
 
 




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Unleashing True Competition in Telecommunications

The long-awaited transition to a competitive local telecommunications service market is mired down in regulatory and court proceedings that deal with the implementation of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and proposed mergers among major players in the industry. Was the Telecommunications Act of 1996 a move in the right direction? Are any of the new […]

      
 
 




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Islamic Comrades No More

The coup last July in Egypt opened a new divide in the Middle East, alienating the Gulf monarchies from the Muslim Brotherhood. Vali Nasr looks at why this is a momentous change in the region’s strategic landscape that promises to influence governments and regional alliances for years to come.