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Avoiding the COVID-19 slump: Making up for lost school time

In 1996, Harris Cooper of Duke University and his colleagues first reported on the effects of what came to be known as summer slide, or summer slump. Over the summer months, when children are not in school, those from under-resourced communities tend to lose roughly 30 percent of the gains they made in math during…

       




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How school closures during COVID-19 further marginalize vulnerable children in Kenya

On March 15, 2020, the Kenyan government abruptly closed schools and colleges nationwide in response to COVID-19, disrupting nearly 17 million learners countrywide. The social and economic costs will not be borne evenly, however, with devastating consequences for marginalized learners. This is especially the case for girls in rural, marginalized communities like the Maasai, Samburu,…

       




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During COVID-19, underperforming school districts have no excuse for standstill on student learning

During the COVID-19 pandemic, only 44% of school districts are both providing instruction online and monitoring students’ attendance and progress. Kids in these districts have a good chance of staying on grade-level during the coronavirus shutdown. Kids in the majority of districts, which are either providing no instruction or offering instruction but not tracking progress,…

       




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Supporting students and promoting economic recovery in the time of COVID-19

COVID-19 has upended, along with everything else, the balance sheets of the nation’s elementary and secondary schools. As soon as school buildings closed, districts faced new costs associated with distance learning, ranging from physically distributing instructional packets and up to three meals a day, to supplying instructional programming for television and distributing Chromebooks and internet…

       




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The fundamental connection between education and Boko Haram in Nigeria

On April 2, as Nigeria’s megacity Lagos and its capital Abuja locked down to control the spread of the coronavirus, the country’s military announced a massive operation — joining forces with neighboring Chad and Niger — against the terrorist group Boko Haram and its offshoot, the Islamic State’s West Africa Province. This spring offensive was…

       




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Webinar: Great levelers or great stratifiers? College access, admissions, and the American middle class

One year after Operation Varsity Blues, and in the midst of one of the greatest crises higher education has ever seen, college admissions and access have never been more important. A college degree has long been seen as a ticket into the middle class, but it is increasingly clear that not all institutions lead to…

     




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Webinar: The impact of COVID-19 on prisons

Across America, incarcerated people are being hit hard by COVID-19. The infection rate in Washington, D.C., jails is 14 times higher than the general population of the city. In one Michigan correctional facility, more than 600 incarcerated people have tested positive — almost 50% of the prison's total population. In Arkansas, about 40% of the…

     




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Webinar: Reopening and revitalization in Asia – Recommendations from cities and sectors

As COVID-19 continues to spread through communities around the world, Asian countries that had been on the front lines of combatting the virus have also been the first to navigate the reviving of their societies and economies. Cities and economic sectors have confronted similar challenges with varying levels of success. What best practices have been…

     




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Webinar: Reopening the coronavirus-closed economy — Principles and tradeoffs

In an extraordinary response to an extraordinary public health challenge, the U.S. government has forced much of the economy to shut down. We now face the challenge of deciding when and how to reopen it. This is both vital and complicated. Wait too long—maintain the lockdown until we have a vaccine, for instance—and we’ll have another Great Depression. Move too soon, and we…

     




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Webinar: Policing in the era of COVID-19

The consequences of the novel coronavirus pandemic stretch across the entirety of government services. Major police agencies have reported absentee rates as high as 20% due to officers who are either themselves afflicted with the virus or in need of self-quarantine. Reported crimes are generally down in America’s cities as a result of the many…

     




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Webinar: Public health and COVID-19 in MENA: Impact, response and outlook

The coronavirus pandemic has exacted a devastating human toll on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with over 300,000 confirmed cases and 11,000 deaths to date. It has also pushed the region’s public healthcare systems to their limits, though countries differ greatly in their capacities to test, trace, quarantine, and treat affected individuals. MENA governments…

     




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Why Salafists in Lebanon have become disempowered

Once considered rising political players in Lebanese politics, the Salafists who were active in aiding the Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime are now in retreat. Geneive Abdo writes that after three years of monitoring their activities, a recent visit to their mosques and homes showed clearly that the weight and power of Hezbollah and its cooperation with the Lebanese intelligence and Armed Forces, and the changing dynamics in the Syrian war that have kept Assad in power, have all led to the Salafists’ decline.

      
 
 




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Not likely to go home: Syrian refugees and the challenges to Turkey—and the international community

Elizabeth Ferris and Kemal Kirişci examine the extent and impact the Syrian refugee crisis has had on Turkey—and the international community—drawing on their visits to the country starting in October 2013.

      
 
 




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2008 Brookings Blum Roundtable: Development in the Balance - How Will the World’s Poor Cope with Climate Change?


Event Information

August 1-3, 2008

Global poverty and climate change are two of the most pressing challenges for global policymakers today, and require policy prescriptions that address their interrelated issues. Effective climate solutions must empower development by improving livelihoods, health and economic prospects while poverty alleviation must become a central strategy for both mitigating emissions and reducing the poor’s vulnerability to climate change.

2008 Brookings Blum Roundtable: Related Materials

In its fifth annual gathering, led by Lael Brainard and co-chaired by Strobe Talbott and Richard C. Blum, the Brookings Blum Roundtable addressed the challenges of climate change and development and convened leaders from both the development and climate change communities from August 1-3, 2008, to discuss and debate policy ideas that could benefit both fronts. By examining common challenges—accountability, effective deployment of resources, agenda-setting, mobilizing the public and financial resources, and achieving scale and sustainability—the Roundtable established a solid foundation for collaboration among the climate change and development communities and fostered ideas for policy action.

Keynote Sessions

Keynote Panel: “Noble Nobels: Solutions to Save the Planet”

  • Steven Chu, University of California, Berkeley
  • Al Gore, Generation Investment Management; 45th Vice President of the United States

Keynote Panel: Legal Empowerment of the Poor

  • Mary Robinson, Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative
  • Madeline Albright, The Albright Group; Former U.S. Secretary of State

Keynote Panel: “How Do We Achieve Climate Justice?”

  • Kumi Naidoo, CIVICUS and the Global Call to Action Against Poverty
  • Mary Robinson, Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative

      
 
 




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2009 Brookings Blum Roundtable: Climate Crisis, Credit Crisis - Overcoming Obstacles to Build a Climate Resilient World


Event Information

July 30 - August 1, 2009

In the midst of a global economic downturn, the world’s climate change negotiators will descend on Copenhagen in December to craft a post-2012 climate regime. But with the timing and impacts of climate change still uncertain—not to mention the ongoing transitions brought about by globalization and the increased cost of capital investment due to weak financial markets—tensions across countries are evident. Policy-makers must now think creatively to realize their goal of revitalizing the global economy through low carbon growth models.

2009 Brookings Blum Roundtable: Related Materials

In its sixth annual gathering, led by Kemal Derviş and co-chaired by Strobe Talbott and Richard C. Blum, the Brookings Blum Roundtable convened leaders from the climate change and global development communities from July 30 through August 1, 2009 to discuss and debate policy options to stimulate green, pro-poor growth. By examining the challenges and opportunities policymakers face, the roundtable forged sustainable solutions to solve the climate crisis in a way that revitalizes the global economy and lifts the lives of the poor.

Lunch Briefing: 

“Towards a Global Climate Agreement: Key Insights from Project Catalyst”

    Keynote Sessions:

    “A Blueprint for Transatlantic Climate Cooperation”

      “Compounding Crises: How Can and How Are the Poor Protecting Themselves?”

        “Greening Business: Engaging the Private Sector in Climate Change Solutions”

        • Hal Harvey, ClimateWorks Foundation
        • Thomas Heller, Stanford Law School
        • Moderator: William Antholis, Brookings
        • John Podesta, Center for American Progress
        • Cem Özdemir, German Green Party
        • Moderator: Timothy Wirth, United Nations Foundation
        • Ernest Aryeetey, University of Ghana and Director, Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings
        • Helen Clark, United Nations Development Program
        • Raymond Offenheiser, Oxfam America
        • Moderator: Karen Kornbluh, Center for American Progress
        • Meg McDonald, Alcoa Foundation
        • Jane Nelson, Harvard Kennedy School of Government
        • Glenn Prickett, Conservation International
        • Mark Tercek, the Nature Conservancy
        •       
           
           




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          2011 Brookings Blum Roundtable: From Aid to Global Development Cooperation


          Event Information

          August 3-5, 2011

          Aspen, Colorado

          Register for the Event

          The context for aid is changing. Globalization has spurred economic convergence, upending the twentieth century economic balance and creating a smaller world where both problems and solutions spill across national borders more readily. This has given rise to a legion of new development actors, including emerging economies, NGOs, private businesses, and coordinating networks, who have brought fresh energy and resources to the field while rendering the prospect of genuine donor coordination ever more difficult. Global integration and competition for resources has raised the prominence of global public goods, whose equitable and sustainable provision requires international collective action. Meanwhile, poor countries are demanding a new form of partnership with the international community, built upon the principles of country ownership and mutual accountability.

          2011 Brookings Blum Roundtable: Related Materials

          From G-20 meetings and the upcoming High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Korea to unfolding events in the Middle East and North Africa, leadership from the United States is crucial, placing pressure on the Obama administration to deliver on its promise of far-reaching reforms to U.S. global development efforts. And amidst this shifting global landscape is the issue of effectively communicating the importance of global development cooperation to both a national and global public, at a time when budget pressures are being felt across many of the world’s major economies

          At the eighth annual Brookings Blum Roundtable, co-chaired by Kemal Derviş and Richard C. Blum, 50 thought-leaders in international development came together to discuss a new role for global development cooperation, one that employs inclusive and innovative approaches for tackling contemporary development problems and that leverages the resources of a large field of actors.


          Roundtable Agenda

          Wednesday, August 3, 2011

          Welcome: 8:40 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
          Open Remarks
          • Richard C. Blum, Blum Capital Partners, LP and Founder of the Blum Center for 
          Developing Economies at Berkeley
          • Mark Suzman, Global Development Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
          • Kemal Derviş, Global Economy and Development, Brookings

          Statement of Purpose, Scene Setter, Comments on the Agenda
          • Homi Kharas, Brookings

          Session I: 9:00AM - 10:30AM
          Reframing Development Cooperation
          In almost any discussion of international development, foreign aid takes center stage. But while 
          aid can certainly be a catalyst for development, it does not work in isolation. Participants will 
          discuss the key objectives of development cooperation, consider what measures of development 
          cooperation are most valuable for recipients, and explore an effective balance of roles and 
          responsibilities - including both public and private players - in today’s evolving development 
          landscape.

          Moderator
          • Walter Isaacson, Aspen Institute

          Introductory Remarks
          • Owen Barder, Center for Global Development
          • Donald Kaberuka, African Development Bank Group
          • Ananya Roy, University of California, Berkeley
          • Elizabeth Littlefield, Overseas Private Investment Corporation

          Session II: 10:50AM - 12:20PM
          The G-20's Development Agenda
          Last year’s G-20 meeting in Seoul marked the first time the group formally took up the issue of development. There they announced the Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth and the Multi-Year Action Plan for Development: two far-reaching policies which are expected to guide the G20’s future agenda. What is the G-20’s comparative advantage vis-à-vis development, and how can the group’s development efforts be strengthened and supported?

          Moderator
          • Mark Suzman, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

          Introductory Remarks
          • Alan Hirsch, The Presidency, South Africa
          • Suman Bery, International Growth Centre
          • Homi Kharas, Brookings

          Dinner Program: 6:00PM - 9:00PM
          A Conversation with Al Gore and Mary Robinson

          Topic: "Energy Security and Climate Justice"

          Moderator
          • Kemal Derviş, Global Economy and Development, Brookings


          Thursday, August 4, 2012 

          Session III9:00AM - 10:30AM 
          The Road to Buscan
          In November, participants from over 150 countries, including ministers of developing and developed countries, heads of bilateral and multilateral development institutions, and civil society representatives, will take part in the fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea. The forum is intended to take account of the development community’s progress in achieving greater impact through aid and to redefine the aid effectiveness agenda to adjust to a changing global landscape. What would constitute success or failure at Busan?

          Moderator
          • Raymond Offenheiser, Oxfam America

          Introductory Remarks
          • J. Brian Atwood, Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development, 
          Development Assistance Committee 
          • Wonhyuk Lim, Korean Development Institute
          • Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, World Bank 
          • Steven Radelet, U.S. Agency for International Development 

          Session IV: 10:50AM - 12:20PM 
          Lessons from the Middle East on Governance and Aid
          Popular protests across the Middle East against authoritarian regimes have prompted reflection 
          on the role of aid to non-democratic and poorly governed countries. Some critics believe that aid 
          should only be given to relatively well-governed countries where it is more likely to be effective, 
          but for others, this amounts to collective punishment for the people who suffer under such 
          governments. Do aid allocation models need to change and what role can the development 
          community now play in supporting peaceful, democratic reform in the Middle East?

          Moderator
          • Madeleine K. Albright, Albright Stonebridge Group

          Introductory Remarks
          • Ragui Assaad, University of Minnesota
          • Sheila Herrling, Millennium Challenge Corporation
          • Tarik Yousef, Silatech

          Lunch Program: 12:30PM - 2:00PM
          A Conversation with Thomas R. Nides, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources

          Moderator
          • Richard C. Blum, Blum Capital Partners, LP and Founder of the Blum Center for Developing Economies at Berkeley


          Friday, August 5, 2012 

          Session V: 9:00AM - 10:30AM
          Implementing U.S. Development Reforms 

          The end of 2010 saw the completion of two major policy reviews in Washington concerned with 
          international development: the Presidential Policy Directive on Global Development and the 
          Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. Progress on implementation has been 
          significant in many respects and meager in others. Additionally, despite directives to deliver on 
          many valuable priorities for improvement, essential components of fundamental reform are still 
          in need of address. Casting a shadow across the exercise, or alternatively serving as a spur to 
          focus, the budget environment has soured.

          Moderator
          • Jim Kolbe, German Marshall Fund of the United States

          Introductory Remarks
          • Rajiv Shah, U.S. Agency for International Development
          • Samina Ahmed, International Crisis Group
          • Robert Mosbacher, Jr., Mosbacher Energy Company

          Session VI: 10:50AM - 12:20PM
          Communicating Development Cooperation
          Public interest in and support for aid matter. Yet in many aid giving countries, there is 
          widespread cynicism as to what end aid programs serve and ignorance as to what activities they 
          actually involve. What are the best examples of development efforts which have been 
          communicated successfully and what can we learn from this to shore up support for 
          development cooperation now and in the future?

          Moderator 
          • Liz Schrayer, U.S. Global Leadership Coalition

          Introductory Remarks 
          • Steven Kull, Program on International Policy Attitudes
          • Joshua Bolten, ONE
          • S. Shankar Sastry, University of California, Berkeley
          • Jack Leslie, Weber Shandwick

          Closing Remarks: 12:20PM- 12:30PM
          • Richard C. Blum, Blum Capital Partners, LP and Founder of the Blum Center for 
          Developing Economies at Berkeley
          • Kemal Derviş, Global Economy and Development, Brookings

          Public Event: 4:00PM - 5:30PM
          Brookings and the Aspen Institute present “Development as National Security?”: A Conversation with Rajiv Shah, U.S. Agency for International Development; Sylvia Mathews Burwell, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Richard J. Danzig, Center for a New American Security; and Susan C. Schwab, University of Maryland.

          Moderator
          • Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

          Welcome and Introductions
          • Kemal Derviş, Brookings

          Hosts
          • Richard C. Blum and Senator Dianne Feinstein

                
           
           




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          On Apil 30, 2020, Jung H. Pak discussed COVID-19 in North Korea at the Korea Economic Institute of America

          On Apil 30, 2020, Jung H. Pak discussed the current uncertainty in North Korea's ability to handle the challenges posed by COVID-19 outbreak with the Korea Economic Institute of America.

                 




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          On May 4, 2020, Jung H. Pak discussed her recent publication, Becoming Kim Jong Un, with Politics and Prose

          On May 4, 2020, Jung H. Pak discussed her recent publication, “Becoming Kim Jong Un,” with Politics and Prose.

                 




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          Clouded thinking in Washington and Beijing on COVID-19 crisis

          In 2015, an action movie about a group of elite paratroopers from the People’s Liberation Army, “Wolf Warrior,” dominated box offices across China. In 2020, the nationalistic chest-thumping spirit of that movie is defining Chinese diplomacy, or at least the propaganda surrounding it. This aggressive new style is known as “wolf warrior diplomacy,” and although…

                 




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          Technology competition between the US and a Global China

          In this special edition of the Brookings Cafeteria Podcast, Lindsey Ford, a David M. Rubenstein Fellow in Foreign Policy, interviews two scholars on some of the key issues in the U.S.-China technology competition, which is the topic of the most recent release of papers in the Global China series. Tom Stefanick is a visiting fellow…

                 




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          “Becoming Kim Jong Un”

                 




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          A modern tragedy? COVID-19 and US-China relations

          Executive Summary This policy brief invokes the standards of ancient Greek drama to analyze the COVID-19 pandemic as a potential tragedy in U.S.-China relations and a potential tragedy for the world. The nature of the two countries’ political realities in 2020 have led to initial mismanagement of the crisis on both sides of the Pacific.…

                 




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          Webinar: Reopening and revitalization in Asia – Recommendations from cities and sectors

          As COVID-19 continues to spread through communities around the world, Asian countries that had been on the front lines of combatting the virus have also been the first to navigate the reviving of their societies and economies. Cities and economic sectors have confronted similar challenges with varying levels of success. What best practices have been…

                 




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          Updating communications law and regulations for the mobile era


          Event Information

          March 24, 2015
          10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT

          Saul Room/Zilkha Lounge
          Brookings Institution
          1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
          Washington, DC 20036

          Register for the Event

          The last time policymakers substantially reviewed federal communications policy, it was the early 1990s. At that time, the Internet was only beginning to reveal itself to be the dynamic technology seen today. Mobile devices and services, such as 100 megabit broadband, smartphones, applications, social networks, tablets, and digital streaming, were barely imagined, let alone factored into policy discussions. As the recent debate around net neutrality highlights, policymakers today can be hamstrung in efforts to fit today's communications technologies and services into last century's communications law. Given that most major communications laws are out of step with today’s advanced mobile capabilities, what shape would smart, updated legislation and regulatory changes take? What are the major changes to U.S. communications law that most need to be addressed and implemented?

          On March 24, the Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings hosted a conversation with Craig Silliman, general counsel and executive vice president for public policy at Verizon, to examine what 21st century communications polices might look like.

          Video

          Audio

          Transcript

          Event Materials

               
           
           




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          How mobile apps will empower health care consumers


          Choosing a health plan on one of the new public or private exchanges is no easy task. That’s especially true for those with medical conditions who want to be very sure the plan they enroll in will provide the services they need.

          This challenge is not unique to buying health plans, however. It’s always hard for consumers to buy complex and technical services or products when they have little or no expertise in the field. Health insurance can be especially daunting, with so many factors to consider, and even the terminology can be confusing.

          Standardizing choices and terms can be helpful to a point. Grouping health plans according to premiums and out-of-pocket costs – bronze, silver, gold and platinum plans – has worked well in the public exchanges. But standardization will always be in tension with innovation, and the reality is that most exchanges will carry a larger inventory of plans than what the typical consumer wants to scroll through. So the question of “choice architecture” – how the plans are filtered or screened – will come to the fore. 

          Consumers will have many questions.  What is the price? How do I assess the trade-off between lower premiums and higher cost sharing? Is my doctor in the plan’s network? Are the drugs I take in the formulary (whatever that is)? Things can get real complicated real fast, and it can feel like there are too many, not too few, choices. No wonder some call that “choice anxiety”.

          But that view overlooks how technology is likely to reduce choice anxiety in health care, just as it has for other complicated searches.  It used to take a librarian to find an obscure article or a travel agent to plan a vacation. Today a few keystrokes on Google locates the article, and Travelocity makes vacation planning a cakewalk, with everything from on-time flight arrival data to pictures of hotel rooms and customer reviews arranged by star ratings.

          Expect technology to have the same dramatic impact on buying health coverage in the near future. There are several reasons for this:

          The presentation of consumer information will get better. When large new markets for products and services are created and the demand for buyers’ information rises sharply, the incentive for entrepreneurs – both for-profit and nonprofit – to provide customer-friendly information also rises. We’ve already seen this in parts of the health care market where there has been plenty of choice. Millions of federal employees have for many years been able choose among a wide range of plans with differing benefits.  Many have turned to the highly regarded Consumers’ Checkbook to help them understand and readily compare plans in the federal program.

          Checkbook has launched a similar comparison tool for the  Illinois exchange and recently won the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s (RWJF) first "Plan Choice Challenge," a nationwide competition to design a technology application that helps people choose their best health plan options.

          Navigation technology will make searches simple and quick.  Most consumers don’t want to spend a lot of time comparing plans; they want to find the best buy for their situation as quickly as possible.  That’s why brokers have traditionally encouraged employers to offer their employees a carefully limited set of shopping choices, but we expect plan navigation technology to constantly improve the shopping experience in ways that will help customers search a larger inventory and still make choices more easily.   Stride Health, a San Francisco startup and finalist in the RWJF Challenge, has developed a recommendation technology that searches massive data sets on networks and formularies in seconds to help consumers find a “match” that fits their budget and health care needs.  (Full disclosure – author Joel Ario is an investor).  

          Stride is one of more than 40 “web brokers” that has met federal consumer protection and privacy standards enabling it to work with the federal exchange to enroll subsidy-eligible individuals in coverage.  Expect increasing collaboration between public exchanges and private vendors, with a surge of apps and gadgets to make navigation easier and easier in health exchanges.

          Technology will allow choices to be tailored to medical history.  Advances in technology won’t just make it technically easier to pick and choose by price and reputation. These advances will also empower Americans to base their choices on their likely medical needs. Today, tailoring your coverage to your medical condition usually means trying to get a doctor– or several doctors– to help you figure out what you should look for in a plan. Even with that help, for the average person it’s still a hit-or-miss proposition. But new forms of choice technology are beginning to utilize questions about medical history to guide buyers towards the plans that are most suited to their condition.  

          Checkbook and Stride already allow consumers to enter more detailed health histories and get more sophisticated assistance, and this will only improve as exchanges publish more data in machine readable formats.   Expect more and increasingly sophisticated customized navigators, especially as patients get more access to their electronic medical records.  Also expect sellers to respond with products than bundle services to meet the new demand.

          Does this mean that an iPhone app will be all that’s needed to ensure that every consumer can find his or her perfect plan? Not quite.  Health insurance marketplaces will continue to present thorny regulatory challenges.  Insurance regulators will need to guard against unfair practices, such as insurers’ designing benefit plans to drive away applicants with certain health conditions; privacy concerns will be raised whenever apps ask for medical history; and new forms of provider integration will test antitrust doctrine.

          But one thing is clear. Improving technology will soon make picking the right health plan a far more precise and simple process – easy enough for many of our children to do on their smart phones or whatever gadget comes next.

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          Obama’s trip to Kenya: Economic highlights


          In advance of President Obama’s trip to East Africa on July 23, the Africa Growth Initiative has prepared short travel companions on the economic environments in both Ethiopia and Kenya. The president’s visit to Kenya, one of the larger economies on the continent and a major driver of growth in the East Africa region, underlies the United States’ commitment to trade and investment on the continent. Below are key facts on Kenya’s economy to consider as President Obama travels to the region. Facts on Ethiopia can be found here.

          Kenya enjoys middle-income status. Earlier this month the World Bank confirmed Kenya’s lower-middle-income country status according to their latest estimates of the gross national income per capita. This followed from the statistical reassessment of GDP figures that increased the size of its economy by 25 percent  ($53.3 billion up from $42.6 billion) last September, making it the continent’s ninth-biggest economy, accounting for over 2 percent of the continent’s GDP.

          Kenya has undertaken initiatives to attract private sector investment. According to the late Brookings Senior Fellow Mwangi Kimenyi, the nation’s strong private sector evolved under relatively market-friendly policies for most of the post-independence era. Foreign direct investment is further expected to take the lead in growth acceleration, especially in the extractive sector if the newly discovered oil deposits are found to be commercially viable. Large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the Mombasa-Kigali standard-gauge railway and the Lamu Port and Southern Sudan and Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor, also incentivize private sector engagement. Kenya has been among the top recipients of external financing for infrastructure investment during 2009-2012, primarily led by Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Financing.

          Kenya was the first African country to build geothermal energy sources. Geothermal energy provides 51 percent of Kenya’s energy, allowing electricity bills to decrease by 30 percent since 2014 (World Bank).

          Kenya acts as a hub for regional integration and the East African Community (EAC). Among the six Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) indicators of the African Development Bank, infrastructure and regional integration registered the score of 4.6 in Kenya, the second best in Africa. As a regional export and financial hub, Kenya plays a leading role in the EAC and regional integration. Two Kenyan cities, Nairobi and Mombasa, are the biggest city and port (respectively) between Cairo and Johannesburg, making Kenya the commercial and transportation hub of East Africa.

          Kenya has experienced service-led growth over the last decade. Kenya’s market-based economy enjoys some of the strongest service-sector industries, including the financial and the information and communication technology sectors, which play key roles in economic transformation and job creation in Kenya. Besides, travel and tourism made up 12.1 percent of Kenya’s GDP in 2013, and the nation is frequently cited as one of the best tourist destinations in Africa.

          More than two-thirds of the adult population engages in mobile commerce, making Kenya the world leader in mobile payments. At 86 percent mobile payments penetration among Kenyan households, M-Pesa is redefining the way Kenyans perform transactions and has also facilitated financial inclusion by promoting savings and financial transactions among the unbanked.

          Nearly one out of every two women in Kenya is a member of a women’s saving group, which are voluntary groups formed to  help women overcome barriers to financial participation. Called chamas, these groups allow women to mobilize savings and collectively invest to improve their livelihoods by contributing a certain amount of money to a pooled fund.

          Kenya has a thriving manufacturing sector. Kenya is slowly diversifying exports away from agricultural commodities and increasing value-added processing. In 2014, roughly 70 percent of Kenya’s exports to the U.S. were textile- and garment-based, in which the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has played a key role. The recent extension of AGOA for another decade opens up further opportunities for growth and revival of the textile and apparel industry in Kenya.

          Kenya’s well-diversified economy and sound economic reform program are important steps in its quest to reach emerging market status. However, the following key challenges could undermine economic development:

          Youth in Kenya are experiencing much higher unemployment rates than the rest of the Kenyan population. Though Kenya boasts of its young, educated and English-speaking human resource pool (especially in the urban areas), it continues to struggle with high unemployment rate among young people, which is estimated to be double the national level of unemployment of 12.7.

          Spatially unbalanced growth in the Kenyan economy continues to be evident. Kenya has made substantial progress towards achieving towards achieving the targets associated with the Millennium Development Goals, including child mortality and near universal primary school enrolment. However, it still has a long way to reach the set targets: Over 40 percent of its 44 million population continues to be extremely poor living on less than $1.25 a day, with women being particularly at risk.

          Implementation challenges of fiscal decentralization remain. Under the new constitution, county governments are entitled to not less than 15 percent of the total national revenue collected by the Kenyan central government. This fiscal devolution can bolster social cohesion, by increasing accountability in the management of public resources, and improving the quality of services delivery. However, it is crucial that this devolution is implemented successfully with equitable access to resources to all parts of the country. AGI’s Kenya Devolution and Revenue Sharing Calculator serves as a web interactive allowing users to explore and adjust the government of Kenya’s allocation formula for revenue distribution to county governance structures.

          Kenya’s infrastructure remains insufficiently developed in spite of the fact that over the last five years, nearly 27 percent of the national budget has been allocated to transport, energy, water and sanitation, and environment-related infrastructure. Kenya was a pioneer in the use of infrastructure bonds in Africa, with its first issuance in 2009 of a 12-year bond which raised $ 232.6 million but further substantial investment in infrastructure is critical to achieving  Kenya Vision 2030 to become a globally competitive country.

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          Connected learning: How mobile technology can improve education


          Education is at a critical juncture in many nations around the world. It is vital for student learning, workforce development, and economic prosperity. For example, research in Turkey has found that raising the compulsory education requirement from five to eight years increased the percentage of women having eight years of school by 11 percentage points, and had a variety of positive social consequences.

          Yet despite the emergence of digital learning, most countries still design their educational systems for agrarian and industrial eras, not the 21st century. This creates major problems for young people who enter the labor force as well as teachers and parents who want children to compete effectively in the global economy.

          In this paper, Darrell West examines how mobile devices with cellular connectivity improve learning and engage students and teachers. Wireless technology and mobile devices:

          • Provide new content and facilitate information access wherever a student is located
          • Enable, empower, and engage learning in ways that transform the environment for students inside and outside school
          • Allow students to connect, communicate, collaborate, and create using rich digital resources, preparing them to adapt to quickly evolving new technologies
          • Incorporate real-time assessment of student performance
          • Catalyze student development in areas of critical-thinking and collaborative learning, giving students a competitive edge

          Downloads

          Authors

          Image Source: Adam Hunger / Reuters
                
           
           




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          Workers and the online gig economy


          Recent developments in the U.S. economy present opportunities and challenges for how to effectively promote widely shared economic prosperity in a changing labor market. The proliferation of nontraditional and contingent employment relationships, fostered in part by new technology platforms, creates new opportunities, but also new regulatory, legal, and public policy challenges. Consumers and workers alike now use online technology and apps to contract for specific, on-demand services such as cleaning, handiwork, shopping, cooking, driving, and landscaping. These developments constitute what has been referred to as the “online gig” or “on-demand” economy, where work is taking place in a series of one-off gigs, rather than in an ongoing relationship with a single employer. The emergence of the online gig economy has increased policy interest in the issue of contingent work arrangements, which broadly include independent contractors as well as part-time, temporary, seasonal, or subcontracted workers.

          In some respects, these on-demand gigs benefit both workers and the economy, and help to support job growth and household incomes in the post–Great Recession labor market recovery. Such gigs often feature flexible hours, low or no training costs, and generally few barriers to worker entry. These features have enabled gig-economy workers, including those with other jobs, to generate new income or to supplement their primary incomes during difficult times in a strained job market. Moreover, customers purchasing such on-demand services have benefited from the convenience and availability of services as well as the low cost at which they are often offered.

          However, other aspects of the gig economy have raised some concerns. First, these jobs generally confer few employer-provided benefits and workplace protections. This stands in contrast to traditional employer–employee relationships that often come with manifold assurances and protections, such as overtime compensation, minimum wage protections, health insurance, disability insurance, unemployment insurance, maternity and paternity leave, employer-sponsored retirement plans, workers’ compensation for injuries, paid sick leave, and the ability to engage in collective action. Second, technological developments occurring in the workplace have come to blur the legal definitions of the terms “employee” and “employer” in ways that were unimaginable when employment regulations like the Wagner Act of 1935 and the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 were written. The evolution of the work relationship over time has led to important regulatory gaps. Some observers perceive that the online gig economy is leading to a rise in the share of work arrangements that are precarious, as compared to traditional employer–employee arrangements, and that the enhanced flexibility of the marketplace has come at a cost of economic security for many workers. In fact, systematic and timely data on contingent work arrangements are hard to come by so economists are still trying to figure out how common and widespread they are and what their impact on workers’ economic security might be. The absence of systematic data makes it all the more difficult to analyze the costs and benefits of contingent work arrangements for workers and businesses, and thus inform the appropriate policy and regulatory response. While the online gig economy is bringing this challenge to the fore, the broader issues surrounding classification and protection of contingent workers are not new or isolated. Importantly, the use of subcontracted and temporary workers, and workers with irregular or on-call shifts, also may require new regulatory frameworks.

          In this framing paper, The Hamilton Project describes the broader economic context of contingent employer–employee relationships and where the emerging on-demand gig economy fits in this context. It also highlights the regulatory and measurement gaps that need to be resolved.

          Downloads

          Publication: The Hamilton Project
                
           
           




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          The ABCs of the post-COVID economic recovery

          The economic activity of the U.S. has plummeted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment has soared—largely the result of social distancing policies designed to slow the spread of the virus. The depth and speed of the decline will rival that of the Great Depression. But will the aftermath be as painful? Or…

                 




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          GCC News Roundup: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait implement new economic measures (April 1-30)

          Gulf economies struggle as crude futures collapse Gulf debt and equity markets fell on April 21 and the Saudi currency dropped in the forward market, after U.S. crude oil futures collapsed below $0 on a coronavirus-induced supply glut. Saudi Arabia’s central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20…

                 




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          Making sense of the monthly jobs report during the COVID-19 pandemic

          The monthly jobs report—the unemployment rate from one survey and the change in employer payrolls from another survey—is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, particularly at a time of an economic crisis like today. Here’s a look at how these data are collected and how to interpret them during the COVID-19 pandemic. What…

                 




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          District Mineral Foundation funds crucial resource for ensuring income security in mining areas post COVID-19

          The Prime Minister of India held a meeting on April 30, 2020 to consider reforms in the mines and coal sector to jump-start the Indian economy in the backdrop of COVID-19. The mining sector, which is a primary supplier of raw materials to the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, is being considered to play a crucial…

                 




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          The COVID-19 crisis has already left too many children hungry in America

          Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, food insecurity has increased in the United States. This is particularly true for households with young children. I document new evidence from two nationally representative surveys that were initiated to provide up-to-date estimates of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the incidence of food insecurity. Food insecurity…

                 




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          The Trump administration misplayed the International Criminal Court and Americans may now face justice for crimes in Afghanistan

          At the start of the long war in Afghanistan, acts of torture and related war crimes were committed by the U.S. military and the CIA at the Bagram Internment Facility and in so-called “black sites” in eastern Europe. Such actions, even though they were not a standard U.S. practice and were stopped by an Executive…

                 




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          On April 9, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown discussed “Is the War in Afghanistan Really Over?” via teleconference with the Pacific Council on International Policy.

          On April 9, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown discussed "Is the War in Afghanistan Really Over?" via teleconference with the Pacific Council on International Policy.

                 




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          On April 30, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown participated in an event with the Middle East Institute on the “Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Potential Social, Political and Economic Impact.”

          On April 30, 2020, Vanda Felbab-Brown participated in an event with the Middle East Institute on the "Pandemic in Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Potential Social, Political and Economic Impact."

                 




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          COVID-19, Africans’ hardships in China, and the future of Africa-China relations

          In the midst of the global scramble to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, relations have ruptured at a most unexpected front—between China and Africa. Since April 8, reports and social media discussions about the eviction and maltreatment of Africans in the Chinese city of Guangzhou have gone viral, leading to a series of formal and…

                 




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          Africa in the news: African governments, multilaterals address COVID-19 emergency, debt relief

          International community looks to support Africa with debt relief, health aid This week, the G-20 nations agreed to suspend bilateral debt service payments until the end of the year for 76 low-income countries eligible for the World Bank’s most concessional lending via the International Development Association. The list of eligible countries includes 40 sub-Saharan African…

                 




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          COVID-19 and debt standstill for Africa: The G-20’s action is an important first step that must be complemented, scaled up, and broadened

          African countries, like others around the world, are contending with an unprecedented shock, which merits substantial and unconditional financial assistance in the spirit of Draghi’s “whatever it takes.” The region is already facing an unprecedented synchronized and deep crisis. At all levels—health, economic, social—institutions are already overstretched. Africa was almost at a sudden stop economically…

                 




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          Africa in the news: South Africa looks to open up; COVID-19 complicates food security, malaria response

          South Africa announces stimulus plan and a pathway for opening up As of this writing, the African continent has registered over 27,800 COVID-19 cases, with over 1,300 confirmed deaths, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Countries around the continent continue to instate various forms of social distancing restrictions: For example, in…

                 




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          Africa in the news: COVID-19, Côte d’Ivoire, and Safaricom updates

          African governments take varying approaches to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 As of this writing, Africa has registered over 39,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,600 deaths, with most cases concentrated in the north of the continent as well as in South Africa. African countries have enacted various forms of lockdowns, external and internal border closures,…

                 




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          Figures of the week: The costs of financing Africa’s response to COVID-19

          Last month’s edition of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s biannual Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, which discusses economic developments and prospects for the region, pays special attention to the financial channels through which COVID-19 has—and will—impact the economic growth of the region. Notably, the authors of the report reduced their GDP growth estimates from…

                 




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          Putting women and girls’ safety first in Africa’s response to COVID-19

          Women and girls in Africa are among the most vulnerable groups exposed to the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Although preliminary evidence from China, Italy, and New York shows that men are at higher risk of contraction and death from the disease—more than 58 percent of COVID-19 patients were men, and they had an…

                 




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          Africa in the news: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, COVID-19, and AfCFTA updates

          Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan political updates Ethiopia-Eritrea relations continue to thaw, as on Sunday, May 3, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki, Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, and Presidential Advisor Yemane Ghebreab, visited Ethiopia, where they were received by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. During the two-day diplomatic visit, the leaders discussed bilateral cooperation and regional issues affecting both states,…

                 




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          From National Responsibility to Response – Part I: General Conclusions on IDP Protection

          Editor's Note: This is the first part of a two piece series on internal displacement that originally appeared online in TerraNullius. The second part is available here.

          The Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement recently released a study entitled "From Responsibility to Response: Assessing National Response to Internal Displacement." The study examined 15 out of the 20 countries with the highest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to conflict, generalized violence and human rights violations—Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Georgia, Iraq, Kenya, Myanmar, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Turkey, Uganda and Yemen.

          According to estimates, these 15 countries represent over 70 percent of the world’s 27.5 million conflict-induced IDPs. Wherever possible, we also tried to include government efforts to address internal displacement by natural disasters. But in this and the subsequent blog post, we will focus on our main general conclusions as well as particular issues around housing, land and property (HLP) rights that emerged from our analysis (see Part II of this posting).

          The study looks at how governments have fared in terms of implementing 12 practical steps (“benchmarks”) to prevent and address internal displacement, as outlined in the 2005 Brookings publication entitled "Addressing Internal Displacement: A Framework for National Responsibility." The 12 benchmarks are as follows:

          1. Prevent displacement and minimize its adverse effects.
          2. Raise national awareness of the problem.
          3. Collect data on the number and conditions of IDPs.
          4. Support training on the rights of IDPs.
          5. Create a legal framework for upholding the rights of IDPs.
          6. Develop a national policy on internal displacement.
          7. Designate an institutional focal point on IDPs.
          8. Support national human rights institutions to integrate internal displacement into their work.
          9. Ensure the participation of IDPs in decisionmaking.
          10. Support durable solutions.
          11. Allocate adequate resources to the problem.
          12. Cooperate with the international community when national capacity is insufficient.

          Stepping back from HLP issues (to be addressed in a subsequent set of comments in Part II of this guest posting), we drew several key observations on our overall findings.

          The study found that political will was the main determining factor of response to internal displacement. Governments cannot always control the factors that cause displacement, or may themselves be responsible for displacement, but they can take measures to improve the lives and uphold the rights and freedoms of IDPs. Internal displacement due to con­flict derives from political issues, and all aspects of a government’s response to it therefore are affected by political considerations, including, for example, acknowledgment of displacement, registration and collection of data on IDPs, ensuring the participation of IDPs in decision-making, assistance and protection offered to different (temporal) caseloads of IDPs, support for durable solutions, which durable solutions are supported, and the facilitation of efforts by international organizations to provide protec­tion and assistance to IDPs.

          While none of the governments surveyed was fully protecting and assisting IDPs, four stand out in particular—Colombia, Georgia, Kenya and Uganda—for implementing their responsibility toward IDPs while three others—Central African Republic, Myanmar and Yemen—had particular difficulties in fulfilling their responsibilities toward IDPs. In Myanmar, the obstacles were primarily political while in Yemen and the Central African Republic, as in many of the countries surveyed, the limitations appear to arise primarily from inadequate government capacity.

          The other eight countries were somewhere in between. For example, some, such as Nepal, have demonstrated a significant commitment at one particular point in time but have failed to follow through. Others, such as Sri Lanka, have at times demonstrated blatant disregard for their responsibility and have moved swiftly to try to bring an end to displacement. Sudan, Pakistan, and to a certain extent, Turkey, have very problematic records with respect to preventing displacement in one part of the country yet have supported efforts to bring an end to displacement in others. In some cases, such as Afghanistan and Yemen, the continuing conflict and the role of nonstate actors (and in Afghanistan, the presence of foreign militaries as well) have made it difficult for the government to respond effectively to internal displacement.

          Prevention of internal displacement is paramount, but is probably the most difficult measure to take and the least likely to be taken in the countries as­sessed, which all had large IDP populations. Given the scale of displacement in the fifteen countries surveyed, it was to be expected that these governments would not have been suc­cessful in preventing displacement. Nearly half of the fifteen countries assessed had adopted some preventive measures on paper, but all fifteen have fallen short of actually prevent­ing displacement in practice.

          Moreover, many national authorities themselves have been or are perpetrators of violence or human rights abuses that have led to displacement, and many states foster a culture of impunity for alleged perpetrators of serious human rights violations. Further, the presence of foreign military forces and/or non-state armed actors limits the abil­ity of many states to exercise full sovereignty over their territory and therefore to prevent the conditions that drive people into displacement. Some countries have taken steps to prevent dis­placement due to natural disasters or develop­ment but not due to conflict, indicating that the former is perhaps less politically taboo and/or practically less difficult to implement than the latter.

          Sustained political attention by the highest authorities is a necessary, though not suffi­cient, condition for taking responsibility for IDPs. Nearly all of the governments surveyed, at least at some point, have exercised their responsibility to IDPs by acknowledging the existence of internal displacement and their responsibility to address it as a national prior­ity, for example, by drawing attention to IDPs’ plight. However, government efforts to raise awareness of internal displacement through public statements was not always a useful indicator of a government’s commitment to upholding the fundamental human rights and freedoms of IDPs.

          Among the five countries with laws on or related to internal displacement, there were notable limitations to the scope of the laws and gaps in implementing them. Legislation was quite comprehensive in scope in at least two cases and was narrow in others, address­ing specific rights of IDPs or a phase of dis­placement. Other countries lacked a national legislative framework on IDPs but had generic legislation relevant to IDPs. Still others had laws that violated or could violate the rights of IDPs. Laws on internal displacement must be viewed in the context of other legislation and administrative acts applicable to the general population (e.g., those related to documenta­tion, residency, housing, land and property, and personal status), which this study reviews to the extent possible, particularly in the case studies on Georgia, Kenya, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. In Africa, the region with the most IDPs, states have recognized in legally binding instruments the importance of addressing internal displace­ment by incorporating the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement into domestic legisla­tion and policy.

          Many of the governments surveyed have adopted policies or action plans to respond to the needs of IDPs, but adequate implementa­tion and dissemination were largely lacking. Nine of the countries surveyed had developed a specific policy, strategy or plan on internal displacement, implemented to varying degrees; those in six of these countries were still active at the time of writing. In addition, at least two countries had national policies in draft form, and one country that does not recognize conflict-induced displacement had a plan for mitigating displacement by cyclones and a plan on disaster risk reduction, although it did not discuss displacement. While in some cases positive steps had been taken, by and large im­plementation of policies on internal displace­ment remains a challenge and has, in some cases, stalled. Available information indicates that efforts to raise awareness of IDP issues and policies have largely been inadequate.

          It is difficult to assess governments’ com­mitment of financial resources to address internal displacement, but some trends were identified. Addressing internal displacement, especially over time, is a costly venture. While it was difficult to obtain a full picture of a coun­try’s expenditure on IDPs, several countries allocated funds to assist IDPs, including a few that had no national laws or policies on IDPs. In at least two countries, funds for assisting IDPs seemed to diminish in recent years. In many countries, difficulties arise at the district or municipal levels, where local authorities bear significant responsibility for addressing internal displacement but face many obstacles, including insufficient funds, to doing so. Allegations of corruption and misallocation of funds intended to benefit IDPs at certain points has been observed in some of the countries as­sessed. Some countries seem to rely on inter­national assistance to IDPs rather than national funds.

          National human rights institutions (NHRIs) contribute invaluably to improving national responses to internal displacement in a number of countries. In recent years, an increasing number of NHRIs around the world have begun to integrate attention to internal displacement into their work. NHRIs have played an impor­tant role in raising awareness of internal dis­placement, monitoring displacement situations and returns, investigating individual complaints, advocating for and advising the government on the drafting of national policies to address inter­nal displacement, and monitoring and reporting on the implementation of national policies and legislation. In particular, the NHRIs of six of the countries surveyed stand out for their efforts to promote the rights of IDPs in their countries. Interestingly, almost all of their work with IDPs is funded by international sources, raising the question of whether national governments themselves should not be doing more to increase their funding of NHRIs in order to support their engagement with IDP issues.

          International actors are valuable resources for efforts aiming to improve government response to IDPs. In many cases, the past Representatives of the UN Secretary-General (RSGs) mandated to study the issue of internal displacement (Francis Deng and his successor Walter Kälin) and the current UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons (Chaloka Beyani) had exercised significant influence on governments in encouraging and supporting action on behalf of IDPs. Along with these actors, UNHCR and the Brookings Project on Internal Displacement have provided technical assis­tance to support governments’ efforts to de­velop national legal frameworks to ensure IDPs’ access to their rights.

          Durable solutions: Return was the durable solution most often supported by the govern­ments assessed. The Framework for National Responsibility identifies three durable solu­tions—return, local integration and settlement elsewhere in the country. However, the fifteen countries surveyed herein reflect a global ten­dency to emphasize return, often excluding the other durable solutions. Yet for solutions to be voluntary, IDPs must be able to choose among them, and local integration or settlement else­where in the country may in fact be some IDPs’ preferred solution. Especially in situations of protracted displacement, those may be the only feasible solutions, at least in the near future.

          The most difficult benchmarks to analyze were those whose underlying concepts are very broad and those for which data was seemingly not publicly available. Chief among these were the benchmarks on preventing internal displacement (Benchmark 1), raising national awareness (Benchmark 2), promoting the participation of IDPs in decisionmaking (Benchmark 9), and allocating adequate resources (Benchmark 11). Analysis on all other benchmarks also faced data constraints as in many cases data were outdated or incomplete or simply were not available. Nonetheless, we found that the twelve benchmarks all directed attention to important issues in governments’ responses to internal displacement.

          We also found that while protection is central to the Framework, the issue is of such importance that there should be a benchmark explicitly focused on it—and specifically on protection as physical security, provided to IDPs during all phases of displacement. This benchmark would also underscore the responsibility of governments to protect the security of humanitarian workers engaged with IDPs.

          Overall, the study found that the Framework for National Responsibility is a valuable tool for analyzing government efforts to prevent dis­placement, to respond to IDPs’ needs for protection and assistance and to support durable solutions. But this study also reveals certain limitations to using the Framework as an assessment tool, particularly in terms of accounting for the responsibility of nonstate actors; accounting for national responsibility for protection, particularly during displacement; and accounting for causes of displacement other than conflict, violence and human rights violations.

          Authors

          Publication: TerraNullius
                
           
           




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          Europe’s Eastern Frontiers: A Conversation with Javier Solana

          Event Information

          April 13, 2012
          10:30 AM - 12:00 PM EDT

          Falk Auditorium
          The Brookings Institution
          1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
          Washington, DC

          Register for the Event

          Stability in Europe’s eastern neighborhood, already precarious, is being further strained. The political prospects of several countries, including Ukraine, Georgia, Turkey and Russia, remain unclear. The region is grappling with the fallout of the economic crisis, and Russia and Turkey, in particular, are threatened by the turmoil in the Arab world.

          On April 13, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) hosted former European Union High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana for a discussion on how the European Union (EU) and NATO should engage with Europe’s strategic partners in the East and Southeast. As a former secretary general of NATO and secretary-general of the Council of the European Union, Solana offered insight into the prospects for future EU and NATO enlargement, the potential impact of the eurozone crisis on the region and how Europeans should attempt to cooperate with their neighbors in tackling global challenges.

          Brookings President Strobe Talbott provided introductory remarks and moderated the discussion.

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          Audio

          Transcript

          Event Materials

                
           
           




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          Georgia Defense Minister: We Are Acting Like a NATO Country, Like a European Country


          Today, the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings hosted Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Alasania for an address on Georgia's vision for Euro-Atlantic integration during a period of increased insecurity in the region. In his remarks, Minister Alasania shared his insights on the upcoming NATO summit and Georgia's approach to enhancing its relations with the West while attempting to normalize relations with Russia to lower tensions still simmering from the war six years ago.

          Minister Alasania said that his country's "path toward NATO and European integration is unchanged" and offered next steps on "how we're going to make sure that the credibility of the west, the credibility of NATO as an organization will continue to be relevant to safeguard the values that we all cherish: freedom, democracy, and a Europe whole and free."

          "We are acting like a NATO country," he said. Continuing:

          We are acting like a European country, because we believe that our future is within Europe. And we regard ourselves as a future member. And this is why we are preparing ourselves institution-wise, in terms of freedom, in terms of democracy, and the military capabilities when ... the historical opportunity will open up to Georgia to join NATO and the EU.

          The defense minister added that "We are looking at the future." We:

          cannot be dragged back to the confrontation of the early 1990s. And we want to make sure that our policies, our economic policies, our foreign policy, [are] specifically working to make sure that the Georgian people who elected us are now moving closer and closer to the European way of living standards. And this only can be done if the efforts that Georgia is making will be validated, will be appreciated by the NATO and the European countries.

          One of the things we are looking forward to is the signing of the association agreement. The next step obviously is the NATO summit. And what the NATO summit will decide is how effectively they can assure the allies, but also the partners, like Georgia.

          On Russia, Minister Alasania spoke in both hopeful and realistic terms, saying that:

          We are now approaching foreign policy and specifically the issue with Russia with a rather mature approach. We don't have any illusions that Russia will change its behavior or policies toward Georgia's territorial integrity or NATO aspirations. But we do hope the diffusion of tensions, the decrease of the military rhetoric between the two countries, will serve Georgia's interests best.

          And it will give us more space to develop ourselves, to develop our relationship with the Abkhazia and South Ossetian areas. This is the cornerstone of our policy actually. Be uncompromising on the territorial integrity. Be uncompromising on NATO aspiration, membership in NATO and the EU. But at the same time be sure that we are not going give a pretext to anybody in the region, specifically to Russians, to attack us politically or otherwise.

          Listen to audio of the event below or on the event's web page to get the full conversation, which was moderated by CUSE Director Fiona Hill.

          Audio

          Authors

          • Fred Dews
                
           
           




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          The human costs of 'strategic partnerships' with South Caucasian states


          I write this as I learn of the beating death of an Azerbaijani journalist Rasim Aliyev. His “crime” was to post a Facebook item about football. What follows seems insignificant compared to his murder.

          Two articles have appeared in prominent Western outlets in the past month addressing developments in the South Caucasus and the need for adjustments in U.S. (and Western) policy toward the region. The first was an excellent, in-depth Brookings report titled "Retracing the Caucasian Circle—Considerations and Constraints for U.S., EU, and Turkish Engagement in the South Caucasus"; the second was a shorter essay that Bill Courtney, Denis Corboy, and I penned for Newsweek on the need to reboot policy toward Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Both reflected the difficulty of writing about the “South Caucasus” as if the three countries had common interests and objectives. Increasingly these interests and objectives are diverging, except for a growing unhappiness with the United States and the West for not paying attention to—or doing enough to support—the region. In the case of Azerbaijan, the frustration stems from U.S. leaders paying too much attention to the appalling human rights situation in the country.

          What’s making the Azerbaijanis so upset with the West?

          The authors of the Brookings report point to elite cynicism over Western disinterest and policy failures in the region as sources of Azerbaijani leaders’ unhappiness. This, in their view, is causing Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan—for different reasons and in different ways—to tack toward Russia.

          We have a different take in our Newsweek piece. We argue that the unhappiness results from governing elites recognizing that U.S. and Western policy regarding human rights, democracy building, corruption, and conflict resolution (especially the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict) threaten regime stability. Therefore, the tacking toward Russia is a conscious choice to avoid pressure and the transparency that closer association with the United States and Europe would involve.

          The new orientation of these countries requires serious adjustment in Western policies. There are four new drivers prompting change (beyond the role of Russia): the regional consequences of the Iran nuclear agreement; the growing economic crisis, which is affecting the South Caucasian states in different ways; the threat of renewed military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan; and the internal security implications of suppression of human rights. While each country responds to these drivers in different ways, they are the source of a new dynamic in the South Caucasus that requires a fresh Western policy approach.

          Three wild cards will shape these drivers and the Western approach to them: First, how hard will Russian President Vladimir Putin push his objective of rolling back the degree of Western influence achieved since the fall of the Soviet Union? Second, how well will Iran play the nuclear agreement card, especially regarding its reentry into global energy markets? Third, how distracting will Turkey’s military response to the Islamic State and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) be for Turkey’s interests in the South Caucasus and its objective of becoming a regional energy hub?

          The shortcomings of soft regionalism

          What is to be done? Faced with such a challenging situation, the default policy response is to provide more assistance (economic and military), dispatch senior officials from Western capitals to visit the region, and indulge (rather than criticize) democracy and human rights abuses, all in the name of developing a strategic partnership. In other words: Show more love.

          That business-as-usual approach is inappropriate for these challenging times. In the case of Azerbaijan, it is an inappropriate response to the continued violations by the Baku regime of basic human rights and freedom of expression.

          The Brookings paper suggests a multilateral approach (involving the United States, EU, and Turkey) based on soft regionalism. I do not believe that soft regionalism will work. The best we can hope for is parallel bilateral engagement on the basis of common interests (e.g. conflict prevention) and shared values (e.g. democratic evolution, observance of human rights). We need to treat the energy issue in the region as a commercial rather than geopolitical one. Changes in the global energy market have undermined the geopolitical significance of Caspian energy resources compared to two decades ago. With low energy prices likely the norm for the near future, energy no longer plays a strategic role for the region. Among other weaknesses, the soft regionalism prescription implies coordinated interests with Turkey—this will be difficult absent an opening in Turkish-Armenian relations.

          Who needs who more?

          The burden of choice in this relationship with the West must shift from the outside parties to the South Caucasian states themselves. The outsiders should stop talking about “strategic” partnerships, trans-Caspian pipelines and Silk Roads because this perpetuates a “you-need-us-more-than-we-need-you” starting point. Rather, the time has come for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to decide on their own where their interests coincide with those of the West. That’s where we and they can begin to develop meaningful relationships, rather than trying to invent a veneer to cover differences—as in the case of Azerbaijan’s record on human rights.

          Another recent article in Newsweek, by Theodore Gerber and Jane Zavisca, raised questions about promoting democracy and human rights where populations and elites are skeptical of U.S. motivations in promoting these issues. Fairly, the article questions the effectiveness of the traditional instruments of promoting opposition political parties and local NGOs as a way of winning “hearts and minds” in the former Soviet Union. Unfortunately, these traditional instruments tend to emphasize the attractiveness of the “American way of life” through student and scientific exchanges. This offers a variant on the soft regionalism theme advanced in the Brookings paper. Both require a receptivity to change that both elites and populations increasingly find threatening. Developing a values-based relationship is difficult when values diverge.

          To the extent our interests do not coincide, then the Western policy focus must be transactional and rest exclusively on conflict prevention and/or amelioration. It also should not shy away from pressing all three South Caucasian states on their obligations to observe international standards regarding human rights, democracy, and freedom of expression.

                
           
           




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          Oil in a post-Covid world

                 




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          20200424 Politico Fiona Hill