Huiping Xu, Xiaochun Li, Changyu Shen, Siu L. Hui, Shaun Grannis.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1753--1790.

Abstract:
The conditional independence assumption of the Felligi and Sunter (FS) model in probabilistic record linkage is often violated when matching real-world data. Ignoring conditional dependence has been shown to seriously bias parameter estimates. However, in record linkage, the ultimate goal is to inform the match status of record pairs and therefore, record linkage algorithms should be evaluated in terms of matching accuracy. In the literature, more flexible models have been proposed to relax the conditional independence assumption, but few studies have assessed whether such accommodations improve matching accuracy. In this paper, we show that incorporating the conditional dependence appropriately yields comparable or improved matching accuracy than the FS model using three real-world data linkage examples. Through a simulation study, we further investigate when conditional dependence models provide improved matching accuracy. Our study shows that the FS model is generally robust to the conditional independence assumption and provides comparable matching accuracy as the more complex conditional dependence models. However, when the match prevalence approaches 0% or 100% and conditional dependence exists in the dominating class, it is necessary to address conditional dependence as the FS model produces suboptimal matching accuracy. The need to address conditional dependence becomes less important when highly discriminating fields are used. Our simulation study also shows that conditional dependence models with misspecified dependence structure could produce less accurate record matching than the FS model and therefore we caution against the blind use of conditional dependence models.

Sébastien Gadat, Sébastien Gerchinovitz, Clément Marteau.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 3, 1797--1831.

Abstract:
We consider the binary supervised classification problem with the Gaussian functional model introduced in ( Math. Methods Statist. 22 (2013) 213–225). Taking advantage of the Gaussian structure, we design a natural plug-in classifier and derive a family of upper bounds on its worst-case excess risk over Sobolev spaces. These bounds are parametrized by a separation distance quantifying the difficulty of the problem, and are proved to be optimal (up to logarithmic factors) through matching minimax lower bounds. Using the recent works of (In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (2014) 3437–3445 Curran Associates) and ( Ann. Statist. 44 (2016) 982–1009), we also derive a logarithmic lower bound showing that the popular $k$-nearest neighbors classifier is far from optimality in this specific functional setting.

Leif Döring, Philip Weissmann.

Source: Bernoulli, Volume 26, Number 2, 980--1015.

Abstract:
Conditioning stable Lévy processes on zero probability events recently became a tractable subject since several explicit formulas emerged from a deep analysis using the Lamperti transformations for self-similar Markov processes. In this article, we derive new harmonic functions and use them to explain how to condition stable processes to hit continuously a compact interval from the outside.

A train in India on Friday plowed through a group of migrant workers who fell asleep on the tracks after walking back home from a coronavirus lockdown, killing 15, the Railways Ministry said. Early this week the government started running trains to carry stranded workers to their home states.

Indian authorities used drones and fire engines to disinfect the pandemic-hit city of Ahmedabad on Saturday, as virus cases surged and police clashed with migrant workers protesting against a reinforced lockdown. The western city of 5.5 million people in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state has become a major concern for authorities as they battle an uptick in coronavirus deaths and cases across India.

Joseph Antonelli, Giovanni Parmigiani, Francesca Dominici.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 3, 825--848.

Abstract:
In observational studies, estimation of a causal effect of a treatment on an outcome relies on proper adjustment for confounding. If the number of the potential confounders ( $p$ ) is larger than the number of observations ( $n$ ), then direct control for all potential confounders is infeasible. Existing approaches for dimension reduction and penalization are generally aimed at predicting the outcome, and are less suited for estimation of causal effects. Under standard penalization approaches (e.g. Lasso), if a variable $X_{j}$ is strongly associated with the treatment $T$ but weakly with the outcome $Y$ , the coefficient $eta_{j}$ will be shrunk towards zero thus leading to confounding bias. Under the assumption of a linear model for the outcome and sparsity, we propose continuous spike and slab priors on the regression coefficients $eta_{j}$ corresponding to the potential confounders $X_{j}$ . Specifically, we introduce a prior distribution that does not heavily shrink to zero the coefficients ( $eta_{j}$ s) of the $X_{j}$ s that are strongly associated with $T$ but weakly associated with $Y$ . We compare our proposed approach to several state of the art methods proposed in the literature. Our proposed approach has the following features: 1) it reduces confounding bias in high dimensional settings; 2) it shrinks towards zero coefficients of instrumental variables; and 3) it achieves good coverages even in small sample sizes. We apply our approach to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data to estimate the causal effects of persistent pesticide exposure on triglyceride levels.

Marcos Oliveira Prates, Renato Martins Assunção, Erica Castilho Rodrigues.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 623--647.

Abstract:
Spatial confounding between the spatial random effects and fixed effects covariates has been recently discovered and showed that it may bring misleading interpretation to the model results. Techniques to alleviate this problem are based on decomposing the spatial random effect and fitting a restricted spatial regression. In this paper, we propose a different approach: a transformation of the geographic space to ensure that the unobserved spatial random effect added to the regression is orthogonal to the fixed effects covariates. Our approach, named SPOCK, has the additional benefit of providing a fast and simple computational method to estimate the parameters. Also, it does not constrain the distribution class assumed for the spatial error term. A simulation study and real data analyses are presented to better understand the advantages of the new method in comparison with the existing ones.

Daniele Durante, Tommaso Rigon.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 3, 472--485.

Abstract:
Variational Bayes (VB) is a common strategy for approximate Bayesian inference, but simple methods are only available for specific classes of models including, in particular, representations having conditionally conjugate constructions within an exponential family. Models with logit components are an apparently notable exception to this class, due to the absence of conjugacy among the logistic likelihood and the Gaussian priors for the coefficients in the linear predictor. To facilitate approximate inference within this widely used class of models, Jaakkola and Jordan ( Stat. Comput. 10 (2000) 25–37) proposed a simple variational approach which relies on a family of tangent quadratic lower bounds of the logistic log-likelihood, thus restoring conjugacy between these approximate bounds and the Gaussian priors. This strategy is still implemented successfully, but few attempts have been made to formally understand the reasons underlying its excellent performance. Following a review on VB for logistic models, we cover this gap by providing a formal connection between the above bound and a recent Pólya-gamma data augmentation for logistic regression. Such a result places the computational methods associated with the aforementioned bounds within the framework of variational inference for conditionally conjugate exponential family models, thereby allowing recent advances for this class to be inherited also by the methods relying on Jaakkola and Jordan ( Stat. Comput. 10 (2000) 25–37).

Jasper Akerboom
Oct 3, 2012; 32:13819-13840
Cellular

John D. Cahoy
Jan 2, 2008; 28:264-278
Cellular

Tatiana Stepanova
Apr 1, 2003; 23:2655-2664
Cellular

Jasper Akerboom
Oct 3, 2012; 32:13819-13840
Cellular

John D. Cahoy
Jan 2, 2008; 28:264-278
Cellular

Discurso del Dr. Agustín Carstens, Director General del Banco de Pagos Internacionales, en la Celebración del 25 Aniversario de la Autonomía del Banco de México, Ciudad de México, 22 de noviembre de 2019.

Giving birth triggers a wide repertoire of physiological and behavioral changes in the mother to enable her to feed and care for her offspring. These changes require coordination and are often orchestrated from the CNS, through as of yet poorly understood mechanisms. A neuronal population with a central role in puerperal changes is the tuberoinfundibular dopamine (TIDA) neurons that control release of the pituitary hormone, prolactin, which triggers key maternal adaptations, including lactation and maternal care. Here, we used Ca²⁺ imaging on mice from both sexes and whole-cell recordings on female mouse TIDA neurons in vitro to examine whether they adapt their cellular and network activity according to reproductive state. In the high-prolactin state of lactation, TIDA neurons shift to faster membrane potential oscillations, a reconfiguration that reverses upon weaning. During the estrous cycle, however, which includes a brief, but pronounced, prolactin peak, oscillation frequency remains stable. An increase in the hyperpolarization-activated mixed cation current, I_h, possibly through unmasking as dopamine release drops during nursing, may partially explain the reconfiguration of TIDA rhythms. These findings identify a reversible plasticity in hypothalamic network activity that can serve to adapt the dam for motherhood.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Motherhood requires profound behavioral and physiological adaptations to enable caring for offspring, but the underlying CNS changes are poorly understood. Here, we show that, during lactation, neuroendocrine dopamine neurons, the "TIDA" cells that control prolactin secretion, reorganize their trademark oscillations to discharge in faster frequencies. Unlike previous studies, which typically have focused on structural and transcriptional changes during pregnancy and lactation, we demonstrate a functional switch in activity and one that, distinct from previously described puerperal modifications, reverses fully on weaning. We further provide evidence that a specific conductance (I_h) contributes to the altered network rhythm. These findings identify a new facet of maternal brain plasticity at the level of membrane properties and consequent ensemble activity.

Biases in sensory perception can arise from both experimental manipulations and personal trait-like features. These idiosyncratic biases and their neural underpinnings are often overlooked in studies on the physiology underlying perception. A potential candidate mechanism reflecting such idiosyncratic biases could be spontaneous alpha band activity, a prominent brain rhythm known to influence perceptual reports in general. Using a temporal order judgment task, we here tested the hypothesis that alpha power reflects the overcoming of an idiosyncratic bias. Importantly, to understand the interplay between idiosyncratic biases and contextual (temporary) biases induced by experimental manipulations, we quantified this relation before and after temporal recalibration. Using EEG recordings in human participants (male and female), we find that prestimulus frontal alpha power correlates with the tendency to respond relative to an own idiosyncratic bias, with stronger α leading to responses matching the bias. In contrast, alpha power does not predict response correctness. These results also hold after temporal recalibration and are specific to the alpha band, suggesting that alpha band activity reflects, directly or indirectly, processes that help to overcome an individual's momentary bias in perception. We propose that combined with established roles of parietal α in the encoding of sensory information frontal α reflects complementary mechanisms influencing perceptual decisions.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The brain is a biased organ, frequently generating systematically distorted percepts of the world, leading each of us to evolve in our own subjective reality. However, such biases are often overlooked or considered noise when studying the neural mechanisms underlying perception. We show that spontaneous alpha band activity predicts the degree of biasedness of human choices in a time perception task, suggesting that alpha activity indexes processes needed to overcome an individual's idiosyncratic bias. This result provides a window onto the neural underpinnings of subjective perception, and offers the possibility to quantify or manipulate such priors in future studies.

Malnutrition isn’t just a problem of hunger in developing countries—it exists in all regions and across socio-economic classes. The effects on human health Besides undernutrition, malnutrition also includes micronutrient-deficient diets and overweight and obesity. Chronic malnutrition can have serious, often life-threatening, health consequences, especially for children. Undernutrition can lead to physical and cognitive stunting, and makes children more susceptible to infectious diseases. Micronutrient deficiencies [...]

Constituting only 5 percent of the world population, indigenous peoples nevertheless are vital stewards of the environment. Traditional indigenous territories encompass 22 percent of the world’s land surface, but 80 percent of the planet’s biodiversity.  A third of global forests, crucial for curbing gas emissions, are primarily managed by indigenous peoples, families, smallholders and local communities. Indigenous foods are also particularly [...]

Four years into the 2030 Agenda and there is a pressing need to understand where the world stands in eradicating hunger and food insecurity, as well as ensuring sustainable [...]

Since the adoption of the 2030 Agenda, FAO has produced a wealth of materials aimed at promoting knowledge and understanding related to the SDG Indicators under FAO custodianship.

As the custodian [...]

For the first time, the indigenous community is allowed to gather the cherished plant on protected land

The 15th-century edition of Hafez's "Divan" will be sold at Sotheby's next month

The missionary who lived in the house during the mid-1800s delivered vaccinations to locals during a smallpox epidemic

Researchers shared a video of this massive siphonophore, one of the longest of its kind ever recorded

The project hasn’t yet been greenlit, but a proposal just got major funding to explore the potential for the lunar observatory

The story behind the image, and its removal, led to mixed reactions from the public, including native communities

The hair-care magnate at the center of the new Netflix series 'Self Made' left her imprint on the city where she launched her career

In the early 20th century, Native people responded to the proclamation of Mother’s Day with powwows, ceremonies, rodeos, feasts, and songs

Veteran musher Lance Mackey has had his 21st place finish in this year's Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race vacated because of a failed drug test, race officials announced Thursday.

Shadunjen van Kampen, a 21-year-old member of the Champagne and Aishihik First Nations in Yukon, recently completed her written exams and flight test. She plans to be a commercial bush pilot. 

Many retailers are eager to hear more details from the province about when and how they should reopen after weeks of being closed to the public. The next phase of recovery is expected to start Friday.

Fire scientist say that Saskatchewan say Canadian Forest Service is updating their interactive maps every month from May to September this year so people can check the fire map in their region. Saskatchewan is one of the highest chances of fire this year.

<span class="topsy_trackback_comment"><span class="topsy_twitter_username"><span class="topsy_trackback_content">12 Cool India Facts [For President Obama's Visit] – RantRave ...: Washington Post12 Cool India Facts [For Presid... http://bit.ly/dmozLC</span></span>

<span class="topsy_trackback_comment"><span class="topsy_twitter_username"><span class="topsy_trackback_content">12 Cool India Facts [For President Obama's Visit] – RantRave ...: Washington Post12 Cool India Facts [For Presid... http://bit.ly/dmozLC</span></span>

Doron's experience on Logos Hope shows him God's faithfulness and uncovers leadership abilities he is using today in a new role.

Durante un viaje misionero de un mes, Eduardo aprendió a escuchar y reconocer la voz de Dios, tanto personalmente como ministrando a otros.

Using a cross-country sample of bank-dependent public fi rms we study the international spillovers of a change in banking regulation on corporate borrowing. For identi cation we examine how US rms' liabilities vis-a-vis banks, non-bank lenders and bond markets evolve after an increase in capital requirements implemented by the European Banking Authority (EBA) in 2011. We find that US firms experience a reduction in credit lines but not in term loans from EU banks.

The National Book Festival Presents series was created to provide a book festival experience to lovers of the event on a year-round basis. Because these programs can no longer be held at the Library, we are offering a virtual multipart series, with authors who have written books about widespread diseases and the worldwide response to them.

Press release about Basel Committee assesses members' implementation of the Net Stable Funding Ratio and large exposures framework, 19 March 2020

A protein shredder that occurs in cell membranes of brain cells apparently also indirectly regulates the fat metabolism.

Cleveland Indians reliever Emmanuel Clase was suspended 80 games by Major League Baseball on Friday for testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing drug.

The Cleveland Indians held a video conference with players and other team officials to lay out the provisional plan for returning to organized workouts with designs on being ready for a potential 2020 opening day of July 1, according to The Athletic.

With opposition parties continuing to call for the legislature to be convened, P.E.I. Premier Dennis King says that opportunity for them to examine the government’s spending is coming.

Tourism Cavendish Beach says it is hopeful the Confederation Bridge and province will reopen to certain visitors as soon as it is safe to do so.

A $28.8 million spending bill nearing legislative approval would allocate funding to combat lead in Michigan drinking water systems and investigate sexual assaults by clergy.

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 4% year on year at end-June 2019, to reach $11.9 trillion. Foreign currency credit denominated in euros and Japanese yen continued to expand at a faster pace than that in US dollars, growing at annual rates of 9% and 8%, respectively. US dollar credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) grew at an annual rate of 2% (to reach $3.7 trillion), though growth varied substantially across regions.

US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States grew by 5% year on year at end-September 2019, to reach $12.1 trillion. Euro-denominated credit outside the euro area continued to expand at a fast pace (9%). In contrast, the growth rate of yen-denominated credit outside Japan fell to 1%. Strong debt securities issuance drove expansions in US dollar and euro credit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). US dollar credit to EMDEs grew at an annual rate of 3% (to reach $3.8 trillion); euro credit to EMDEs expanded by 9% (to reach €0.7 trillion).