nes Huracan Lorenzo Advertencia Numero 29 Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL132019 Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1100 AM AST domingo 29 de septiembre de 2019 ...INTERESES EN AZORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE LOREN By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sun, 29 Sep 2019 15:21:32 +0000 000 WTCA43 TJSJ 291521 TCPSP3 Huracan Lorenzo Advertencia Numero 29 Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL132019 Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1100 AM AST domingo 29 de septiembre de 2019 ...INTERESES EN AZORES DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE LORENZO... ...VIGILANCIAS PUDIERAN SER EMITIDAS PARA ESAS ISLAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O ESTA NOCHE... RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMACION ------------------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACION...25.9 N 44.4 O ALREDEDOR DE 1315 MI...2115 KM AL SO DE LOS AZORES VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...145 MPH...230 KM/H MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NNE O 15 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...938 MILIBARES...27.70 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS -------------------- No hay vigilancias o avisos costeros en efecto. Intereses en los Azores deben monitorear el progres de Lorenzo. DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO ---------------------- A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro del Huracan Lorenzo estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 25.9 norte, longitud 44.4 oeste. Lorenzo se esta moviendo hacia el norte-noreste a cerca de 10 mph (17 km/h) y se espera que este movimiento continue hasta esta noche. Un giro hacia el noreste, en conjunto con un aumento en su velicidad de traslacion deben ocurrir el lunes y continuar hasta el miercoles. Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 145 mph (260 km/h) con rafagas mas fuertes. Lorenzo es un huracan categoria 4 en la escala de vientos de huracan Saffir-Simpson. Se espera un debilitamiento constante durante los proximos dias, pero se sigue esperando que Lorenzo siga siendo un huracan potente para los proximos par de dias. Lorenzo es un huracan grande, con vientos con fuerza de huracan extendiendose hasta 80 millas (135 km) del centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 275 millas (445 km) del centro. La presion central minima estimada es de 938 mb (27.70 pulgadas). PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ADENTRO --------------------------------- LLUVIA: Se espera que Lorenzo produzca un total de acumulacion de lluvia de 3 a 6 pulgadas sobre la mayoria del oeste de Azores y de 1 a 2 pulgadas sobre el centro de Azores el martes y miercoles. Esta lluvia pudiera causar inundaciones repentinas que amenacen la vida en el oeste de Azores. RESACAS: Marejadas generada por Lorenzo se estan desplazando a traves de la mayoria de la cuenca del Atlantico. Estas marejadas son muy probables que caucen condiciones de resacas y corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida. Favor de consultar los productos de su oficina local de meteorologia. PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ------------------- Proxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST. $$ Pronosticador Latto Traduccion FRamos Full Article
nes Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10 By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:41:18 +0000 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States. WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the coastal Carolinas. STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Stewart Full Article
nes Atlantic Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 445 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019 .Post-Tropical Cyclone NESTOR CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL Cyclone WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC Advisor By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:45:40 +0000 000 WTNT81 KNHC 192045 TCVAT1 NESTOR WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 445 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019 .POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD GRIDS. FLZ027-028-034-118-127-128-134-192145- /O.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 445 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2019 $$ ATTN...WFO...TAE... Full Article
nes Halliburton Slashes Spending to Brace for Demand Declines By www.rigzone.com Published On :: Mon, 20 Apr 2020 16:40:32 GMT It set 2020 capital outlays at $800 million, 33 percent below previous guidance and the first sub-$1 billion budget since 2016. Full Article
nes Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone NESTOR Forecast/Advisory Number 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS Advisory... THE TROPICAL Storm WARN By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 21:00:16 +0000 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192059 CCA TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 84.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 84.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 84.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NESTOR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Full Article
nes Ciclon post-tropical Nestor Advertencia Numero 10 SNM Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL162019 Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 500 PM CDT sabado 19 de octubre de 2019 ...CICLON POST-Tropical NESTOR SOBRE TIERRA EN L By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:59:54 +0000 000 WTCA41 TJSJ 192059 TCPSP1 BOLETIN Ciclon post-tropical Nestor Advertencia Numero 10 SNM Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL162019 Traduccion por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 500 PM CDT sabado 19 de octubre de 2019 ...CICLON POST-TROPICAL NESTOR SOBRE TIERRA EN LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA... ...ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA... RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM CDT...2100 UTC... INFORMACION ----------------------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACION...30.4 N 84.1 O CERCA DE 70 MI...115 KM NE DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA CERCA DE 10 MI...20 KM E DE TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NE O 55 GRADOS A 23 MPH...37 KM/H PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS -------------------- RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO: El Aviso de Tormenta Tropical ha sido descontinuado para las costas golfo, Florida. RESUMEN DE AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS EN EFECTO: No existen avisos ni vigilancias tropicales. DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO ---------------------- A las 500 PM CDT (2100 UTC), imagenes satelitales, data del Radar Doppler de la NOAA y observaciones de superficies indicaron que el centro del ciclon post-tropical Nestor estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 30.4 norte, longitud 84.6 oeste. El ciclon post-tropical se esta moviendo hacia el noreste cerca de 23 mph (37 km/h), y este movimiento se espera que continue esta domingo en la noche. En el pronostico de trayectoria, el ciclon post-tropical Nestor se movera sobre tierra sobre el Panhandle de la Florida esta tarde y el domingo. se espera que el cilon se mueva fuera de la costa a Carolina del Norte al oeste de aguas del Atlantico tarde el domingo. Los vientos maximos sostenidosestan han disminuido a cerca de 40 mph (65 km) con rafagas mas altas. Se anticipa un poco de cambio en la intensidad posible el domingo en la noche y el lunes cuando el ciclon post-tropical se mueva sobre el oeste del Atlantico. La presion minima central estimada por observaciones en la superficie es de 999 mb (29.50 pulgadas). PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ------------------------- LLUVIA: Se espera que el ciclon post-tropical Nestor produzca lluvia adiconal de hasta 1 a 3 pulgadas este fin de semana a traves de sectores del sureste de los Estados Unidos. VIENTOS: Vientos de fuerza galerna se desarrollaran a traves de sectores de las costas del Atlantico y sureste de los Estados unidos mas tarde hoy y esta noche. TORNADOS: Algunos tornados son posibles durante mitad del dia en la Peninsula norte y central de Florida y tarde hoy y esta noche sobre areas costeras de Georgia y las Carolinas. MAREJADA CICLONICA: Los niveles de marejada ciclonica continuaran disminuyendo durante esta noche a lo largo de la costa del Golfo de la Florida. PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ------------------- Esta es la ultima advertencia emitida por el Centro nacional de Huracanes sobre Nestor. Informacion adicional sobre este sistema puede ser encontrada en High Seas Forecasts emitido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia... bajo AWIPS encabezado NFDHSFAT1 y WMO encabezado FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Pronosticador Stewart Traduccion Ingles Full Article
nes Black Stone, Aethon Team Up in Haynesville-Bossier Effort By www.rigzone.com Published On :: Thu, 07 May 2020 11:42:51 GMT A minimum of four wells will be drilled in the initial program year, which starts in 3Q 2020. Full Article
nes Pos-Tropical Ciclon Olga Advertencia Numero 3 Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL172019 Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1000 PM CDT viernes 25 de 2019 ...OLGA SE CONVIERTE POS-Tropical... ...SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA LLU By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 26 Oct 2019 03:13:26 +0000 000 WTCA42 TJSJ 260313 RRA TCPSP2 BOLETIN Pos-Tropical Ciclon Olga Advertencia Numero 3 Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL AL172019 Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 1000 PM CDT viernes 25 de 2019 ...OLGA SE CONVIERTE POS-TROPICAL... ...SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA LLUVIA FUERTE Y CONDICIONES SEVERIAS A TRAVES DE LA COSTA CENTRO DEL GOLFO Y EL LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALEY EL SABADO... RESUMEN DE LAS 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACION --------------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACION....27.8 NORTE 92.2 OESTE ALREDEDOR DE 170 MI...275 KM AL SSE DE LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NE O 40 GRADOS A 17 MPH...28 KM/H PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO: ------------------------------------------ No hay vigilancias o aviso costeros de ciclon tropical en efecto. Favor referirse a Pronosticos de Alto Oleaje emitidos por el Servicio Nacional y los productos emitidos por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa para informacion sobre vigilancias y avisos no-tropical asociados a este sistema. DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO ----------------------- A las 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), el centro de Pos-Tropical Ciclon Olga estaba localizada en la latitud 27.8 norte, longitud 92.2 oeste. La pos-tropical ciclon esta moviendose hacia el noreste a cerca de 17 mph (28 km/h) Se pronostica que Olga se mueva rapidamente hacia el norte a norte-noreste el sabado y despues girarse hacia el noreste tarde el sabado o doming. En la trayectoria pronosticada, el centro del ciclon pos-tropical debe moverse a traves del Mississippi Valley manana y hacis los Great Lakes mas tarde el fin de semana. Los vientos maximos sostenidos estan cerca de 50 mph (85 km/h) con rafagas mas fuertes. Se espera que Olga se debilite despues que el sistema se mueva sobre tierra el sabado por la manana. Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 140 millas (220 km) del centro. La presion minima central estimada basado sobre los datos anteriores reportado por el Avion Cazahuracan y observaciones de la superficie sobre el norte del Golfo de Mexico es de 999 mb (29.50 pulgadas). PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ------------------------- VIENTO: Vientos con fuerza de galerna asociado con Olga y sus remenantes deben extenderse sobre sectores de la costa norte del Golfo esta noche y sabado. LLUVIA: El ciclon pos-tropical, y lluvia frente al sistema a lo largo y al norte de la zona frontal a traves de la costa del Golfo Central deben producir acumulaciones totales de lluvia de 3 a 6 pulgadas con totales maximos de 8 pulgadas a traves de la costa del Golfo Central hasta sectores del Lower Mississippi Valley y el oeste del Tennessee Valley hasta el sabado en la manana. Estas lluvias pudieran producir inundaciones repentinas a traves de la costa del Golfo Central hacia Lower Mississippi Valley y y el oeste del Tennessee Valley. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS: Mareas sobre lo normal e inundaciones costeras asociadas son posibles a traves de sectores de la costa norte del Golfo. Favor ver los productos emitidos por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia local para mayor informacion. TORNADOS: Tornados aislados son posible esta noche hasta el sabado por la manana a traves de sectores del sureste de Louisiana, sur de Mississippi, y el oeste de Alabama. PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA ------------------- Este es la ultima advertencia publico emitado por el Servicio Nacional Huracanes sobre este sistema. Para mas informacion adicional sobre este sistema se puede ser encontrados en los pronosticos de alta mar emitidos por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia, debajo del encabezado NFDHSFAT1 de AWIPS, encabezado FZNT01 KWBC, y en la web a ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Informacion adicional sobre lluvias fuertes y vientos en rafgas pudiera ser encontrados en los productos de los resumens de tormentas emitidos por el Centro de Prediccion de Meteorologia en www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html $$ Pronosticador Zelinsky Traduccion JPena Full Article
nes Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone NESTOR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL Cyclone NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WES By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:41:18 +0000 000 FONT11 KNHC 192041 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 44(44) 15(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 61(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 56(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 60(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 66(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SURF CITY NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 68(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 64(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 23 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) COLUMBIA SC 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 67(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 59(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 32 41(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 66 11(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAVANNAH GA 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SAVANNAH GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART Full Article
nes Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10 By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:41:55 +0000 000 WTNT41 KNHC 192041 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor made landfall along on St. Vincent Island, Florida, around 1730 UTC. Since then, that center has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle between Apalachicola and Tallahassee. However, during the past hour, a new center appears to have formed farther west along a quasi-occluded frontal boundary. The earlier 40-45 kt winds over water have moved inland and weakened, and the initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a recent wind report of a sustained wind of 33 kt at 5-meters elevation from NOAA buoy 41008/Gray's Reef, Georgia. The initial motion estimate is now northeastward or 055/20 kt. Nestor is forecast to move northeastward over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the east once the cyclone reaches the North Carolina Outer Banks. On days 2 an 3, upper-level support is expected to weaken and lift out to the northeast, leaving a weakening extratropical cyclone Nestor behind. The cyclone should then dissipate or merge with another frontal system by 96 h offshore of the U.S. east coast. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the center of the tightly packed model guidance envelope. Some slight strengthening is expected on Sunday, mainly due to the robust circulation moving out over the warm waters of the far western Atlantic where less friction will affect the cyclone. The official intensity foreast closely follows an average of the 1200 UTC GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global model intensity forecasts. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. Key Messages: 1. Gale-force winds will gradually develop over the Atlantic waters and along the coasts northeastern Florida and Georgia tonight, and spread northward to the Carolinas on Sunday. 2. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 32.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 35.0N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 36.8N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z 36.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart Full Article
nes Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone NESTOR ICAO Advisory Number 10 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 TC ADVISORY DTG: 20191019/2100Z TCAC: KNHC TC: NESTOR NR: 010 PSN: N3024 W08406 MOV: NE 20KT C: 0999HPA MAX WIND: 035KT By www.nhc.noaa.gov Published On :: Sat, 19 Oct 2019 20:43:28 +0000 000 FKNT21 KNHC 192041 TCANT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 TC ADVISORY DTG: 20191019/2100Z TCAC: KNHC TC: NESTOR NR: 010 PSN: N3024 W08406 MOV: NE 20KT C: 0999HPA MAX WIND: 035KT FCST PSN +6 HR: 20/0300Z N3139 W08218 FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 040KT FCST PSN +12 HR: 20/0900Z N3258 W08013 FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 040KT FCST PSN +18 HR: 20/1500Z N3419 W07752 FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 040KT FCST PSN +24 HR: 20/2100Z N3527 W07531 FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 040KT RMK: THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000... 0600...1200...AND 1800Z. NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP .. Full Article
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