The significance of ICTs in supporting socio-economic development in developing countries is inevitable. As academics of information systems in developing countries, we cannot ignore the need for teaching and building the capacity of our students to become knowledgeable and skilled in Information and Communication Technology for Development (ICT4D) practice and discourse. Furthermore, it is vital to equip our students with the ability to apply their discipline knowledge in addressing some of the ICT discrepancies in current ICT4D practice in their own context. I introduced and teach the ICT4D module to the Honours level course at my university in South Africa. This paper explores the factors that have influenced and shaped the development of the ICT4D module curriculum in the South African context I teach in, using a qualitative ethnographic lens and theoretical study. This provides a practice lens to motivate for and support the introduction of an ICT4D module in tertiary curricula in developing countries.

Aim/Purpose: Bring your own device (BYOD) provides opportunities for both the organization and employees, but the adoption of BYOD also introduces risks. This case study of an organization’s BYOD program identifies key positive and negative influences on the adoption decision. Background: The consumerization of IT introduced the BYOD phenomenon into the enterprise environment. As mobile and Internet technologies improve employees are opting to use their personal devices to access organizational systems to perform their work tasks. Such devices include smartphones, tablets and laptop computers. Methodology: This research uses a case study approach to investigate how business priorities drive the adoption of BYOD and how resulting benefits and risks are realized and managed by the organization. Primary empirical data was collected using semi-structured interviews with 15 senior employees from a large South African financial services organization. Policy documents from the organization were analyzed as secondary data. Contribution: Thematic analysis of the data revealed six major themes: improving employee mobility; improving client service and experience; creating a competitive industry advantage; improving business processes; information security risks; and management best practices. Findings: The themes were analyzed using the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, showing the key positive and negative influences on the adoption decision. Recommendations for Practitioners: Organizations need to clearly understand the reasons they want to introduce BYOD in their organizations. The conceptual framework can be applied by practitioners in their organizations to achieve their BYOD business objectives. Recommendations for Researchers: BYOD remains an important innovation for organizations with several aspects worthy of further study. The TOE framework presents a suitable lens for analysis, but other models should also be considered. Impact on Society: The findings show that organizations can use BYOD to improve client service, gain competitive advantage, and improve their processes using their digital devices and backend systems. The BYOD trend is thus not likely to go away anytime soon. Future Research: The applicability of findings should be validated across additional contexts. Additional models should also be used.

This paper explores the issues facing digital forensics in South Africa. It examines particular cyber threats and cyber threat levels for South Africa and the challenges in addressing the cybercrimes in the country through digital forensics. The paper paints a picture of the cybercrime threats facing South Africa and argues for the need to develop a skill base in digital forensics in order to counter the threats through detection of cybercrime, by analyzing cybercrime reports, consideration of current legislation, and an analysis of computer forensics course provision in South African universities. The paper argues that there is a need to develop digital forensics skills in South Africa through university programs, in addition to associated training courses. The intention in this paper is to promote debate and discussion in order to identify the cyber threats to South Africa and to encourage the development of a framework to counter the threats – through legislation, high tech law enforcement structures and protocols, digital forensics education, digital forensics skills development, and a public and business awareness of cybercrime threats.

Aim/Purpose: This paper explored the factors (enablers and barriers) that affect Bitcoin adoption in South Africa, a Sub-Saharan country with the high potential for Bitcoin adoption. Background: In recent years, Bitcoin has seen a rapid growth as a virtual cryptocurrency throughout the world. Bitcoin is a protocol which allows value to be exchanged over the internet without a central bank or intermediary. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are technological tools that arguably can contribute to reducing transactions costs. This paper explored the factors that affect Bitcoin adoption in South Africa, a Sub-Saharan country with the high potential for Bitcoin adoption, as little is known about the factors that affect Bitcoin adoption and the barriers to adoption. Methodology: A quantitative questionnaire was distributed to South African virtual communities where Bitcoin is a topic of interest, and 237 quantitative responses were received, along with 212 open-ended comments. Contribution: This research contributes to the body of knowledge in information systems by providing insights into factors that affect Bitcoin adoption in South Africa. It raises awareness of incentives and barriers to Bitcoin adoption at a time when financial literacy is a crucial issue both in South Africa and worldwide. Findings: The results indicate that perceived benefit, attitude towards Bitcoin, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control directly affected the participants’ intentions to use Bitcoin. Perceived benefit, usefulness, ease of use, and trust-related risk were found to indirectly affect intention to use Bitcoin. Further, it emerges that the barriers to Bitcoin adoption in South Africa consist of the complex nature of Bitcoin and its high degree of volatility. Recommendations for Practitioners: Bitcoin can contribute to reducing transactions costs, but factors that affect adoption and the barriers to adoption should be taken into consideration. These findings can inform systems and software developers to develop applications that make managing Bitcoin keys and transacting using Bitcoin less complex and more intuitive for end users. Recommendation for Researchers: Bitcoin adoption in South Africa is a topic that has not been previously researched. Researchers could research similarities or differences in the various constructs that were used in this research model. Impact on Society: South African Bitcoin users consider it as a universal currency that makes cross-border payments cheaper. A large number of refugees and workers in South Africa make regular payments across borders. Bitcoin could reduce the costs of these transfers. Future Research: Future research could explore Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) adoption in other developing countries. Researchers could look at factors that influence cryptocurrency adoption in general. The factors affecting adoption of other cryptocurrencies can be compared to the results of this study, and similarities and differences can thus be identified.

Aim/Purpose: This study forms part of the World IT Project, which aims to gain a deeper understanding of individual, personal and organisational factors influencing IT staff in a modern, work environment. The project also aims to provide a global view that complements the traditional American/Western view. The purpose of this study is to investigate and report on some of these factors, in particular, the role that job satisfaction has in turnover intention (i.e., changing jobs within the IT industry) and turn-away intention (i.e., moving to another industry other than IT) in South Africa. Background: Several studies have reported on the importance of an employee’s job satisfaction to organisation success, and the various factors that influence it. Most studies on job satisfaction adopted a Westernised and not a global view. Very few empirical studies have been conducted on job satisfaction of IT workers in South Africa. This paper reports on the individual, personal and organisational factors that influence the job satisfaction of IT staff in South Africa. Methodology: The study uses statistical analysis of survey data acquired through the World IT Project. Both online and paper based questionnaires were used. A sample size of 301 respondents was obtained from the survey, which was conducted over a period of 6 months during 2017. The factors that influence IT job satisfaction were analysed using correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and discriminant analysis. The factors investigated were employee and organisational demographics, aspects of occupational culture, and various job-related individual issues. Contribution: This paper presents the only study focused specifically on turnover and turn-away intention amongst IT staff in South Africa. The final proposed model, grounded in the empirical dataset, clearly shows job satisfaction as a strong mediating construct explaining most of the variance in the IT professional’s intention to leave the organisation (i.e. their turnover intention) and the industry (i.e. their turn-away intention). Findings: The findings revealed that there was a significant correlation between job satisfaction and turnover intention as well as between job satisfaction and turn-away intention of IT staff. Perceived professional self-efficacy, strain and experience were also highly correlated with turnover intention. Professional self-efficacy was also significantly correlated with turn-away intention. Based on the analyses that were conducted, a research model is presented that shows the relationships between the various antecedents of turnover and turn-away intention. Recommendations for Practitioners: Managers in organisations dealing with the shortage of IT skills can use the model to plan interventions to reduce IT staff turnover rates by focussing on addressing the identified individual issues such as strain, job (in)security and work load as well as the personal value and IT occupational culture issues. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers in the field of IT staff recruitment and management can find value for their research in the proposed refined model of IT job satisfaction and turnover intention. Future research could possibly replicate the study in other countries or could focus on different factors. Impact on Society: IT skills play a crucial role in society today and are therefore in high demand. However, this demand is not being satisfied by the current rate of supply. Research into what factors influence IT staff to leave the organisation or the industry can assist managers with improving their employee relations and job conditions so as to reduce this turnover and increase organisations’ and society’s competitiveness and economic growth. Future Research: It would be interesting to determine if the findings are similar for a sample of smaller organisations and/or younger IT employees since this study focussed on larger organisations and more experienced staff. Future research could also compare the findings of South African organisations with those in other countries.

Aim/Purpose: The paper’s objective is to examine the challenges of using the mobile phone to mine location data for effective contact tracing of symptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and asymptomatic individuals and the implications of this technology for public health governance. Background: The COVID-19 crisis has created an unprecedented need for contact tracing across South Africa, requiring thousands of people to be traced and their details captured in government health databases as part of public health efforts aimed at breaking the chains of transmission. Contact tracing for COVID-19 requires the identification of persons who may have been exposed to the virus and following them up daily for 14 days from the last point of exposure. Mining mobile phone location data can play a critical role in locating people from the time they were identified as contacts to the time they access medical assistance. In this case, it aids data flow to various databases designated for COVID-19 work. Methodology: The researchers conducted a review of the available literature on this subject drawing from academic articles published in peer-reviewed journals, research reports, and other relevant national and international government documents reporting on public health and COVID-19. Document analysis was used as the primary research method, drawing on the case studies. Contribution: Contact tracing remains a critical strategy in curbing the deadly COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa and elsewhere in the world. However, given increasing concern regarding its invasive nature and possible infringement of individual liberties, it is imperative to interrogate the challenges related to its implementation to ensure a balance with public governance. The research findings can thus be used to inform policies and practices associated with contact tracing in South Africa. Findings: The study found that contact tracing using mobile phone location data mining can be used to enforce quarantine measures such as lockdowns aimed at mitigating a public health emergency such as COVID-19. However, the use of technology can expose the public to criminal activities by exposing their locations. From a public governance point of view, any exposure of the public to social ills is highly undesirable. Recommendations for Practitioners: In using contact tracing apps to provide pertinent data location caution needs to be exercised to ensure that sensitive private information is not made public to the extent that it compromises citizens’ safety and security. The study recommends the development and implementation of data use protocols to support the use of this technology, in order to mitigate against infringement of individual privacy and other civil liberties. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers should explore ways of improving digital applications in order to improve the acceptability of the use of contact tracing technology to manage pandemics such as COVID-19, paying attention to ethical considerations. Impact on Society: Since contact tracing has implications for privacy and confidentiality it must be conducted with caution. This research highlights the challenges that the authorities must address to ensure that the right to privacy and confidentiality is upheld. Future Research: Future research could focus on collecting primary data to provide insight on contact tracing through mining mobile phone location data. Research could also be conducted on how app-based technology can enhance the effectiveness of contact tracing in order to optimize testing and tracing coverage. This has the potential to minimize transmission whilst also minimizing tracing delays. Moreover, it is important to develop contact tracing apps that are universally inter-operable and privacy-preserving.

Aim/Purpose: This paper identified and explored the factors influencing Bitcoin adoption and use in South Africa. Background: Since its introduction in 2008, the value and popularity of Bitcoin has risen exponentially. Captivating the eyes of the world, from regulators to economists, Bitcoin promises to revolutionize the digital currency space. Despite being over 10 years old, the concept of cryptocurrency is fairly new in South Africa, a developing country. South African’s interest in Bitcoin continues to grow with the country constantly ranking within the top 10 in online searches for “Bitcoin” and “cryptocurrency” on Google. The primary objective of this research was to identify adoption factors amongst South African citizens, an area that has not received much research focus in the past. In addition to this, the study aimed to identify how Bitcoin is primarily used in South Africa. Methodology: A survey-based questionnaire was utilized to obtain responses from adopters of Bitcoin in South Africa. The quantitative survey was completed by 204 respondents. Contribution: This research contributes to the body of knowledge relating to Bitcoin adoption, specifically from a developing country. Adoption factors are identified that can be utilized by businesses that intend to adopt cryptocurrency, to strategically prepare for the potential risks or opportunities brought about by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general. Findings: The findings of this study indicate that while perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, subjective norms, and facilitating conditions positively influence intention to adopt Bitcoin, trust was the only construct that is statistically significant and hence is the greatest driver of adoption in South Africa. In terms of its primary use in South Africa, the study revealed that Bitcoin is used as a speculative instrument for short-term trading in South Africa followed by being used as a long-term investment in the crypto-asset class. No respondent indicated that they utilize Bitcoin as a payment method in South Africa. Recommendations for Practitioners: When developing crypto-based investment products, custodians of assets must ensure that a minimum-security protocol is followed to safeguard these assets. This will enhance the trust that potential investors and customers have in their systems and products. Recommendation for Researchers: This study focused on adoption factors for South African citizens. Future studies should be conducted to identify adoption factors by businesses in South Africa. Impact on Society: Bitcoin offers an alternate trading instrument and investment option, with the possibility of large gains over a relatively short period. Bitcoin also presents the possibility of cross-border transactions at a significantly lower cost compared to traditional cross-border transfers of funds. Future Research: Studies should be conducted to explore the factors influencing the adoption of altcoins to determine if the technological differences influence the adoption of one currency over the other. Research should also be conducted comparing the taxation of cryptocurrency in various countries around the world.

Soft skills are becoming increasingly important and will be critical for success in the Information Systems profession. Employers complain about a lack in soft skills among graduates from tertiary education institutions. No agreement exists about what these skills actually are, which are of importance, and how acquiring these soft skills should be approached in higher education. The aim of this paper is to research the perceptions of lecturers, industry, and students on soft skills development of students and to identify important soft skills that need to be developed. The paper starts with a problem statement emphasizing the importance of soft skills and the possible lack thereof. This is followed by a literature review, a description of the methodology followed for this research, the results, conclusion, and the references. The research was done at a university in South Africa. Questionnaires consisting of open questions were distributed to lecturers, industry, and students respectively, and qualitative analysis was done on the results. Results show that stakeholders feel that soft skills of students are not developed adequately, that there is some uncertainty about who should be responsible for developing soft skills, and that the development of soft skills is seen as a difficult task. A list is compiled of the most important soft skills according to literature, lecturers, industry, and students. This list can be used in further research on the soft skills of IT-students. Recommendations are made for the teaching and learning of soft skills.

Contribution: This study contributes to scientific literature by detailing the impact of specific factors on the privacy concerns of citizens living in an African city Findings: The findings reveal that the more that impersonal data is collected by the Smart City of Cape Town, the lower the privacy concerns of the digital natives. The findings also show that the digital natives have higher privacy concerns when they express a strong need to be aware of the security measure put in place by the city. Recommendations for Practitioners: Practitioners (i.e., policy makers) should ensure that it is a legal requirement to have security measures in place to protect the privacy of the citizens while collecting data within the smart city of Cape Town. These regulations should be made public to appease any apprehensions from its citizens towards smart city implementations. Less personal data should also be collected on the citizens. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers should further investigate issues related to privacy concerns in the context of African developing countries. Such is the case since the population of these countries might have unique cultural and philosophical perspectives that might influence how they perceive privacy. Impact on Society: Cities are becoming “smarter” and in developing world context like Africa, privacy issues might not have as a strong influence as is the case in the developing world. Future Research: Further qualitative studies should be conducted to better understand issues related to perceived benefits, perceived control, awareness of how data is collected, and level of privacy concerns of digital natives in developing countries.

South Africa's Tristan Stubbs celebrates after scoring the winning run. — Reuters/file

An unbeaten 47 from Tristan Stubbs, and a 42-run partnership with Gerald Coetzee, saw South Africa haul themselves over the line for a three-wicket win over India in their Twenty20...

Prince William went on an early-morning nature walk near South Africa's Table Mountain on Tuesday to promote the work of conservation rangers in a unique urban national park.

Children's Geographies; 08/01/2022
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Pam and Wendy Drew are South African identical twins who do everything together; from travel to entering the same career paths and now owning and operating Amawele’s Cuisine in San Francisco. The name of their restaurant came easy—it simply means “The Twins” in Zulu.   Amawele’s Cuisine serves what Wendy and Pam consider to be … Continue reading Amawele’s Cuisine Brings South African Flavors to San Francisco →

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Holly Heywood enjoys an evening of sustainable food, drink and gardening at New Hall.

“Chigumadzi argues that within the liberal international order, it is “reasonable” and “workable” to struggle to end apartheid and racial segregation, while it is “unreasonable” and “unworkable” to struggle to end settler colonialism and indigenous land dispossession. In arguing that apartheid is overrepresented in the International Left’s racial discourse and historiography, Chigumadzi draws from generations of Black South African political activists, philosophers, and historians—most notably from the Pan Africanist-Black Consciousness Tradition. These traditions critique apartheid’s relatively short 54 years of institutionalized racial segregation as the paradigmatic historical framework for analyzing South Africa’s three centuries of settler colonialism and land dispossession. Drawing from this black radical critique, Chigumadzi rejects the liberal notion that apartheid’s end is the object of liberation struggle, and, instead asserts the centrality of the struggle for the return of indigenous lands.” Dr. Panashe Chigumadzi is an award-winning writer and Assistant Professor of African History at Brandeis University. Chigumadzi holds a doctorate from Harvard University’s Department of African and African American Studies, and a masters in African Literature from the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

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What is behind the exodus of Economic Freedom Fighters members to ex-President Jacob Zuma's party?

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South Africa Needs a Strategic Vision for Its Continent Expert comment sysadmin 24 November 2017

South Africa has the potential to catalyse growth across its sub-region and the continent, but the government must develop a comprehensive strategy that aligns political, ideological and commercial interests.

South Africa’s status as the ‘gateway to Africa’ is under serious threat. Its companies continue to flourish, but complex relationships at home and abroad constrain government capacity to match its economic dominance with political reach and influence.

South Africa’s policies towards the rest of the continent are often accused of being inconsistent and incoherent. It has been a development partner to the region and to international donors; a moral leader, championing human rights and exporting its own model of transition; and an advocate and representative for the continent in international forums. However, it has simultaneously been accused of exploiting its economic dominance at the expense of its neighbours; handicapped by the political debts owed by the ANC to other liberation movements for their assistance in the struggle; and criticized for its arrogance in seeking to position itself as the ‘legitimate’ voice of Africa.

At the same time, reputational risks, a weakened policy environment and poor growth have taken the shine off South Africa’s ‘Gateway to Africa’ rhetoric. South Africa faces considerable domestic economic issues. Growth forecasts have fallen from 1.3 to 0.7 per cent, State owned enterprises are a huge burden on the treasury, and the forecast budget deficit is R50.8 billion (£2.7 billion), at a time when the cost of borrowing is increasing following downgrades of the country’s credit ratings.

Political risk is high, lowering investor confidence. Corruption, poor service delivery and the government’s under-delivery on citizen’s expectations are exacerbating social tensions in a country with expanded unemployment at 36.4 per cent, and one of the highest rates of inequality in the world. McKinsey, KPMG and HSBC have all become entangled in scandal relating to their dealings with government entities that have become ‘captured’ by private interests.

Despite these concerns, South Africa nonetheless remains the backbone of the regional economy, and its firms are key players across the continent. Johannesburg hosts the deepest and most sophisticated capital market on the continent, and Pretoria has one of the highest numbers of diplomatic missions in the world. ESKOM provides around 75 per cent of the electricity contribution to the Southern Africa SADC Power pool – comprising 12 countries, including those as far north as DRC and Tanzania – and South African ports facilitate over half of sub-Saharan Africa’s non-commodity trade with the rest of the world.

Post-apartheid expansion across the continent by South African companies was initially met with resistance, but these relationships have improved significantly – and South African firms retain significant advantages. South African retailers have the scale to incorporate regional producers into continental supply chains, purchasing fresh produce at a competitive price from regional agri-businesses, then re-selling further afield. For example, Zambeef supplies meat from Zambia to Shoprite stores in west Africa.

African companies in turn rely on South Africa as a significant consumer of goods, services and primary commodities. A South African government agreement with the DRC to import about half of the electricity that will be produced by a new grand-scale hydro-power project guaranteed its bankability. Mozambique is looking to maximize the potential of its world-class natural gas reserves by building a pipeline into South Africa, thus benefitting from the purchasing power of South African parastatal electricity utility firm ESKOM.

But South Africa’s status as an economic hegemon is not mirrored in its political relationships. South Africa’s GDP is five times higher than the six countries with which it shares a border, combined. But successive ANC governments have been unable to fully flex this economic muscle. Partly this is a legacy of history. It is not forgotten that the regional economic body, the Southern African Development Community, originated as the organization of Front Line States coordinating efforts to end apartheid, and ZANU-PF officials in Zimbabwe lecture their ANC counterparts on liberation.

The pan-African vision of former president Thabo Mbeki, and promotion of South Africa’s transition as a model for the continent, reflected the values that have driven ANC policy since the end of apartheid. But the coherence of South Africa’s foreign policy has been undermined by conflict and contradiction within the government. Appetite for engagement in Africa is dwindling. The country’s ability to project military influence across the continent is in critical decline. Jacob Zuma’s use of regional political bodies as a means of removing political rivals from domestic politics has corroded goodwill.

A new Africa Programme research paper argues that a fresh approach to South African engagement on the continent is both possible and necessary. South Africa can use its relative economic weight to play a stronger developmental role, leveraging the strengths of its business sector and its financial agencies. But it must match this with stronger and more cooperative political engagement, particularly through cultivating relationships with pivotal states such as Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia and Angola.

In December, the ANC will elect a new leader to take the party into elections in 2019. Both leading candidates have international experience – Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was the chair of the African Union, and Cyril Ramaphosa has led regional responses to crises in South Sudan, Lesotho and Burundi. South Africa still has considerable foreign policy resources at its disposal. A new strategic vision for Africa that unites the interests of government and business, both domestically and in partner states, can deliver prosperity for both South Africa and the region – and need not contradict the values that have shaped South Africa’s aspirations for the continent in the post-apartheid era.

South Africa's Land Reform Quandary: Scenarios and Policy 10 July 2018 — 10:00AM TO 11:00AM Anonymous (not verified) 13 June 2018 Chatham House, London

Slow delivery on expectations of land redistribution in South Africa has once again put the issue at the forefront of political debate in the country. A parliamentary public consultation process will consider whether constitutional change is required to accelerate expropriation without compensation. Policymakers face dual - often opposing - pressures due to investors’ fears of negative economic impacts as well as citizens’ frustrations over persistent inequality and hardship. State land and tribal trust land remain contentious issues for rural economic development, but with two thirds of the population now living in urban areas policy responses must be as cognizant of the country’s future as it is of its past.

At this meeting, Terence Corrigan, project manager at the South African Institute of Race Relations, will discuss the current debates on expropriation and present the institute’s latest research on future scenarios of land reform in South Africa.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

Higher Education in South Africa: Demands for Inclusion and the Challenges of Reform 17 October 2018 — 5:00PM TO 6:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 18 September 2018 Chatham House, London

South Africa’s 2019 Election: Polling Data and Party Prospects 13 March 2019 — 12:30PM TO 1:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 7 March 2019 Chatham House, London

On 8 May 2019, South Africans will vote in their sixth national election. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa is leading his ANC party campaign, which promises inclusive economic growth and social transformation, including through a sustainable land reform programme. However, public frustrations with the party’s record of service delivery and government corruption after 25 years in power could threaten the ANC’s electoral dominance especially in urban areas.

At this meeting, Professor David Everatt, head of the Wits School of Governance and political pollster, will present polling data and discuss the prospects and strategies of the main parties and their leaders ahead of the May election.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

South Africa After the Elections: Balancing Domestic and International Policy Priorities 16 May 2019 — 1:30PM TO 2:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 9 May 2019 Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

The government that emerges from the 8 May election in South Africa faces immediate domestic and international foreign policy demands. Attracting Foreign Direct Investment to stimulate job growth, accelerating anti-corruption and good governance efforts are at the forefront of the new government’s agenda.

International ambitions will be upgraded such as UN security council reform, maximizing South Africa’s G20, BRICS and IBSA membership and preparing for South Africa’s chairmanship of the African Union (AU) in 2020.

At this meeting, the speakers – Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chairman of SAIIA and author with Nobantu Mbeki of A Manifesto for Social Change: How to Save South Africa, and Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive of SAIIA and currently co-editing a volume on A South African Foreign Policy for the 2020s which will be published in 2019 – will reflect on the election and discuss the new government’s domestic and international policy agenda. The meeting will be chaired by Ann Grant, former British High Commissioner to South Africa (2000-05) with past experience working for Oxfam, Standard Chartered Bank and Tullow Oil.

Ramaphosa Must Act Fast With New Mandate in South Africa Expert comment sysadmin 23 May 2019

In the wake of South Africa’s election, political constraints will ebb momentarily. The president should seize the opportunity to deliver meaningful change.

On 25 May, Cyril Ramaphosa will be inaugurated as president of South Africa, having dragged the African National Congress (ANC) over the line in the 8 May election. The ANC gained a 57 per cent majority, its lowest vote since 1994, its status as national liberator deeply eroded by successive corruption scandals. Only Ramaphosa’s personal popularity stopped it haemorrhaging more support.

His sustained action against corrupt public servants and promises of job-creating economic growth has attracted support from beyond the ANC’s base, including a significant minority of white voters, and generated significant international goodwill. Ramaphosa now has a short window of opportunity to reset social democracy in South Africa before the political cycle of municipal, party and national elections from 2021 to 2024 forces his attention back to party politics.

Defining ‘Ramaphosa-ism’

But personal popularity is fickle, and goodwill alone will not turn around the ailing economy. To attract investment and keep the electorate on side, Ramaphosa’s government needs to move beyond pragmatic crisis responses and articulate a clear, shared vision for how market intervention can allow the economy to grow while simultaneously delivering social transformation.

Growth will be hard to achieve in the short term. The economy is expected to grow 1.2% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020, according to the IMF. Consumer confidence remains subdued, and a decade of declining GDP per capita and increasing inequality has put a strain on households. A ‘fiscal stimulus’ in 2018 delivered very little new government spending, and over the past 10 years, the government wage bill has increased three times higher than the rate of inflation.

Eskom, the state electricity provider, has debts equating to the GDP of Latvia and is not the only state-owned enterprise (SOE) that has required bailing out by the government. There are plans to break up Eskom into three separate entities but calls for deeper reform – or even privatization – are growing.

The president’s responses to these challenges will go a long way to defining ‘Ramaphosa-ism’ and the role of government in pursuing equitable economy growth.

Economic expectations under Ramaphosa

Ramaphosa was a champion of the introduction of a minimum wage and a proponent of the National Development Plan, which relies on growth to drive job creation. His support for land reform is an individual conviction as much as it is a party line, although his views are softer than many in the party, with state-owned land being the initial target.

Investor uncertainty on land tenure and regulations in mining will need to be addressed through passing key pieces of legislation on land reform and the revised Mining and Petroleum Resources Development Act.

Where Ramaphosa differs from his predecessors is his links with business. Thabo Mbeki enjoyed a relationship of mutual respect with business; this disintegrated under Jacob Zuma. Ramaphosa, however, is part of South Africa’s business community, having founded the Shanduka Group, with investments in multiple sectors including retail, telecoms and extractives, and served as chairman of MTN and Bidvest. As president, he has surrounded himself with close economic advisers from business and banking.

In the short term, anti-corruption measures and competent appointments will ease investor woes. In the long term, there is a need to improve the ease of doing business, including labour market reforms, and to make South Africa a more competitive business environment by reducing the hold of large conglomerates on the economy. Ramaphosa may also make greater use of public-private partnerships for large projects.

Political constraints

Ramaphosa faces few immediate political challenges. The ANC is still deeply divided, but although Ramaphosa does not enjoy the ideological support of the entire party, his opponents are leaderless post-Zuma, and have been unable to offer a coherent alternative. ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule has fallen into the role of interim figurehead of this faction, and allegations of corruption would make it difficult for him to aspire to national leadership.

The need to avoid splits before the election meant Ramaphosa had to make concessions, and his first cabinet in February 2018 included opponents and those accused of corruption or incompetence, such as Malusi Gigaba and Bathabile Dlamini. Such concessions to political opponents are unlikely to continue after the election.

Meanwhile, opposition parties made some advances in the election, but where Zuma was an easy target, they are still grappling with how to confront Ramaphosa. The party with the biggest gains was the Economic Freedom Fighters, whose increase of just over 4 points from the last election gave it 11 per cent of the vote this time. They will likely continue to be an effective disruptor. Ramaphosa may also be challenged by trade unions on his reforms, notably over any break-up of SOEs.

But the biggest and most immediate external political challenge for Ramaphosa will be rebuilding trust between government and society, in a context where social protest has become an alternative form of political participation. A turnout of 65 per cent may be considered normal in Western democracies but is a notable drop for a country as politicized as South Africa, driven by frustration and a sense of exclusion as much as apathy. Turnout by young people was even lower.

Achieving the vision

South Africa has all the platforms it needs to project its renewal and attract vital external investment – it is a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, it will take over as chair of the African Union in 2020, it is a member of BRICS and it is the only African member of the G20. But in the recent past, it has struggled to tell a coherent story about its vision for the future and offer to the world.

In the immediate wake of the election, internal and external political constraints will ebb. Ramaphosa must act fast to deliver results before the election cycle starts again. To attract much needed investment stimulus, he will not only need to articulate and market his vision for South Africa, but also outline how he plans to achieve it.

Economic Recovery and Anticorruption in South Africa: Assessing Progress on the Reform Agenda 4 December 2019 — 3:00PM TO 4:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 25 November 2019 Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

South Africa has significant economic potential based on its resource endowment, quality human capital and well-developed infrastructure compared to the region. However, the country’s economic growth rate has not topped 2 per cent since 2013, and in 2018, was below 1 per cent. This has put a strain on citizens and communities in a country that still suffers from structural inequality, poverty and high unemployment. Economic recovery and anti-corruption were the central pillars of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2019 electoral campaign and he has set an investment target of $100 billion. However, voters and investors alike are demanding faster and more visible progress from the country’s enigmatic leader who has a reputation for caution and calculation.

At this event, Professor Nick Binedell will discuss the progress of and opposition to the president’s economic reform agenda and the opportunities for international investment to support long term inclusive and sustainable growth in South Africa.

Attendance at this event is by invitation only.

POSTPONED: Pursuing Economic Reform and Growth in South Africa: the view from the African National Congress 18 March 2020 — 10:30AM TO 11:30AM Anonymous (not verified) 3 March 2020 Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE

The government of South Africa is pursuing a programme of reform to revitalize the economy, strengthen institutions and combat corruption. The State of the Nation Address (SONA) on 13 February and the budget speech of 26 February represent the most significant articulation of the government’s economic strategy. Central to this is the government’s plans for the energy sector, which is fundamental for reviving the economy, and the reform of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). But questions remain about possible divergence of the approach taken by government ministers from the policy position of the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), and what this might mean for the sustainability and progress of reform.

At this event, Paul Mashatile, Treasurer General of the ANC, will discuss the party’s assessment of reform efforts to date and priorities for delivering on inclusive growth.

PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

COVID-19 in South Africa: Leadership, Resilience and Inequality Expert comment sysadmin 7 May 2020

In a world looking for leadership, South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has been remarkable. One year after he carried the time-worn ANC through a national election, South Africans are crying out for more.

In the COVID-19 crisis so far, Cyril Ramaphosa has been widely praised for displaying the decisive leadership so many hoped for when they cast their ballot for him in May 2019. Buttressed by others such as health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize, and on a simple objective to prevent transmission, South Africa has been a lesson to the world. Act fast. Act hard.

Former president Thabo Mbeki’s disastrous response to the HIV crisis cast a long shadow over his legacy, and Ramaphosa has taken note. South Africa has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the world. No exercise. No cigarettes. No alcohol.

The lockdown was imposed when the country had only around 1,000 recorded cases and just two deaths. As a result, transmission from returning travellers has not yet led to an exponential infection rate within the community. The government’s swift reaction has bought much needed time with the peak now seemingly delayed to September or October.

Continental and national leadership

Ramaphosa has also emerged as a key focal point for Africa-wide responses. As current chair of the African Union (AU) he leads the continental engagement with the World Health Organization (WHO), and the various international finance institutions, while South African officials are working with the AU and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) on a push for African debt restructuring.

He has also been active in trouble shooting to unlock external assistance to the continent, including from China and Russia. Appointing special envoys is typical of his boardroom-honed leadership style.

International and regional partnerships are vital for resilience and the arrival of 217 Cuban doctors to South Africa is strongly reminiscent of the liberationist solidarity of the Cold War era. And regional economies remain dependent on South Africa to protect their own vulnerable citizens. Following the 2008 financial crisis, it was South Africa’s regional trading relationships that remained robust, while trade with its main global partners in China and the US dropped.

Despite the plaudits, Ramaphosa remains vulnerable to challenge at home, notably around his failure to stimulate South Africa’s moribund economy. On the eve of lockdown, Moody’s joined its peers Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in giving South Africa a below investment grade credit rating. The move was a long time coming. Long mooted economic reforms were slow to materialise, and South Africa had fallen into recession.

Ramaphosa depends on a small core of close advisors and allies, initially united in apparent opposition to the kleptocratic rule of President Jacob Zuma and the deep patronage networks he created within both the party and the state. But this allegiance is being tested by economic reality. Support within the party was already drifting prior to the crisis.

Disagreements are not just technocratic – there are big ideological questions in play around the role of the state in the economy, the level of intervention, and its affordability, with key government figures sceptical of rapid market reforms. Energy minister and former union stalwart Gwede Mantashe is wary of job losses, and minister of public enterprises Pravin Gordhan protective of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Before coronavirus hit, Ramaphosa seemed content to allow these policy disputes to play themselves out with little decisive intervention.

Slow progress on reform, against worsening economic performance, left Ramaphosa and his allies exposed. In January the president missed the UK’s African Investment Summit in order to assert control over a party meeting at which it was expected his detractors would seek to remove Gordhan.

COVID-19 has sharpened thinking

As the independently assertive - and eminently quotable - pro-market reformist finance minister Tito Mboweni stated, ‘you can’t eat ideology’. Accelerated reform and restructuring is required if the government turns to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance.

For the first time, Gordhan has been forced to deny a bailout to beleaguered state airline South African Airways (SAA), and the government’s lockdown bailout of R500 billion has been applauded by business. Much like the fiscal stimulus and recovery plan of 2018, it relies on smart spending, targeting sectors with high multiplier effects. It also includes significant reserve bank loans.

But it has been criticised for not doing enough to help the most vulnerable. There is considerable fear of what could happen when the virus takes hold in South Africa’s townships and informal settlements where social distancing is almost impossible, basic toilet facilities are shared, and HIV and TB rates high.

There are mounting concerns of the humanitarian cost of a prolonged lockdown, and the government has been faster than others in implementing a tiered lockdown system, trying to get people back to work and keep the economy afloat.

South Africa has been criticized by the UN for the use of lethal force by security forces in enforcing lockdown and, in a society plagued by corruption, there are fears legislation to stop the spread of false information could be used to restrict legitimate reporting on the virus response or other issues.

COVID-19 shines a spotlight on societies’ fault-lines worldwide. South Africa is often touted as having one of the highest levels of inequality in the world but, in a globalized economy, these divisions are international as much as they are local.

Resilience comes from within, but also depends on regional and global trading and financial systems. South Africans and international partners have long recognised Ramaphosa’s leadership qualities as an impressive voice for the global south.

But he must also be an advocate for South Africa’s poor. This crisis could accelerate implementation of his landmark pro-poor National Health Insurance and Universal Health Care programmes. Or the hit of COVID-19 on top of South Africa’s existing economic woes could see them derailed entirely. Ramaphosa must push through economic reforms at the same time as managing COVID-19 and rebuilding trust in his government.