[Politics] :
A court has ordered a fine of one-point-five million won, or around one-thousand-100 U.S. dollars, for the wife of main opposition Democratic Party(DP) leader Lee Jae-myung upon convicting her of violating the election law during the 2022 presidential primaries. In its ruling on Thursday, the Suwon ...

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[Politics] :
Main opposition Democratic Party chair Lee Jae-myung says he will appeal a court decision to fine his wife one-point-five million won, or around one-thousand-100 U.S. dollars, for violating the Public Official Election Act.  Lee expressed deep regret over the Suwon District Court handing down such a ...

[more...]

Binary chalcogen halogen EX4 species represent intriguing systems in terms of chemical bonding theories, such as hypervalency and stereoactivity of lone electron pairs. Instead of a simple molecular EX4 structure, selenium tetrachloride forms an ionic pair, Cl3Se+Cl−, that assembles into a tetrameric (SeCl4)4 structure, namely, tetra-μ3-chlorido-dodecachloridotetraselenium. This article describes the charge–density analysis of the tetrameric molecule of β-SeCl4 based on the aspherical model obtained from Hirshfeld Atom Refinement of the tetrameric molecule and of an explicit cluster of 15 tetramers that simulates the crystal packing. Deformation density, electron localization function (ELF) and Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM) were used to evaluate the bonding situation, the electron-density distribution around the Se atom and the interaction energy of the tetramer.

Mastercard has introduced Biz360, a digital platform...

Tesoro says it’s been planning for a strike and will continue operating two of the effected refineries, including one in Carson.; Credit: Getty Images

More than 800 workers walked off the job early Sunday at an oil refinery in Carson because of a labor dispute, joining workers at eight other refineries around the country. 

National strikes have been rare in the refining business. The last one happened in 1980, and it took three months to resolve. If this dispute lasts that long, analysts say gas prices could rise.

“It’s very possible we may have seen the last of two dollar gasoline in the near term,” said Carl Larry director of oil and gas at consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. “Without production from these refineries, we’re going to see tighter supply and higher prices."

Making matters worse, many refineries are switching over to summer blend gas, which is cleaner burning, but also more expensive.

Jim Burkhard, Managing Director at IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, cautions that it is too soon to know what the effect of the strike will be, and even though the steelworkers have 64 percent of U.S. oil output in their hands, there’s still a lot of other supply.

 “Remember the oil market overall is very well supplied right now,” said Burkhard. "There's plenty of refining capacity around the world, you would just have some modification of trade flows."

The Carson refinery processes 363,000 barrels per day at peak capacity and employs 1,450 workers. Tesoro Corporation, which operates the plant, says it’s been planning for a strike and will continue operations.

"Tesoro is confident that the Company can continue to safely operate the refineries and meet customer commitments until resolution is reached with the [United Steel Workers]," Tesoro said in a written statement.

The USW represents workers at 65 U.S. refineries. It says the facilities where workers have not walked out will continue operating under a rolling 24-hour contract extension. 

“This work stoppage is about onerous overtime; unsafe staffing levels; dangerous conditions the industry continues to ignore; the daily occurrences of fires, emissions, leaks and explosions that threaten local communities without the industry doing much about it; the industry’s refusal to make opportunities for workers in the trade crafts; the flagrant contracting out that impacts health and safety on the job; and the erosion of our workplace, where qualified and experienced union workers are replaced by contractors when they leave or retire,” USW International Vice President Gary Beevers said in a written statement.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

The LAEDC helped Huy Fong Foods reach a compromise to keep operating its Sriracha factory in Irwindale ; Credit: Maya Sugarman/KPCC

Even as California loses manufacturing jobs, a program run by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation has fought to save some. 

When a company is considering relocating to take advantage of lower costs or an easier business climate, the LAEDC’s business assistance program steps in.  

It did so in the well-publicized case of Huy Fung Foods last year.  

When the city of Irwindale filed a lawsuit against the Sriracha sauce-maker because of bad smells, politicians from other states - most notably Texas - began to circle, offering the company a new home.  

Fighting against those suitors is a  familiar dance for the nonprofit Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation. Many states and municipalities have similar agencies, whose job it is to try to attract and keep employers.

In the Sriracha case, the LAEDC prepared an economic impact analysis, met with the company and the South Coast Air Quality Management District and negotiated a compromise that kept the hot sauce manufacturer here, according to Carrie Rogers, Vice President of Business Assistance and Development with LAEDC.

"We all love Sriracha," she said, adding that she was happy to keep the "180 jobs and really to thwart the efforts of Governor Perry from Texas to try to lure our company away to their state."

The LAEDC estimates its business assistance program has played a role in keeping or luring 200,000 jobs since 1996, when it was formed. It's being recognized by the County Board of Supervisors for those efforts today.

But plenty of jobs still leave.

In a study published in July, the LAEDC said between 1990 and 2012, California lost about 40 percent of its manufacturing jobs – 842,180. 

"We compete internationally so a lot of our competitors have gone to Mexico," said Jeff Hynes, CEO of Covina-based Composites Horizons Incorporated, which makes ceramic structures for jet engines. "A week doesn’t go by that I don’t get a call from an economic development corp out of Texas or the South."

He scored a big contract recently and needed to expand fast to begin fulfilling orders. 

"Los Angeles  - in our particular industry - has a very good supplier base with materials and equipment," he said "but certainly facility costs are lower in other areas of the state and country."  

He said the LAEDC helped him get the permits quickly to buy and modify another building on its street and they decided to stay put. 

Composites Horizons currently employs 200 people but plans to add 50 employees this year and another 50 next year, he said. 

Rogers, of the LAEDC, said that may not seem like much, but it's important to support businesses like this one.

"When you take a step back and think about it, here’s a company that’s growing when many businesses aren’t," she said. "We know there are suppliers that feed into Composites Horizons. So when they get millions of dollars worth of contracts, we know that many more companies and employees around the county will be employed doing work directly for this company."

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

Businesses are cutting back on hours to avoid having to provide health care coverage under the new Affordable Care Act.

Steve Julian: Business analyst Mark Lacter, who's affected here?

Mark Lacter: Thirty hours a week is the magic number for workers to be considered full time under the new law.  If a business has 50 or more full-time employees, health care coverage has to be provided.  Except that a lot business owners say that the additional cost is going to be a financial killer, so instead, some of them have been cutting back hours to below that 30-hour threshold.  More than 200,000 Californians are at risk of losing hours from the health care law - that according to one study.

Julian: What kinds of businesses are doing this?

Lacter: Restaurant chains have received much of the attention, but the city of Long Beach, as an example, is going to reduce hours for a couple of hundred of its workers.  And, last week came word that the L.A.-based clothing chain Forever 21 will cut some of its full-time employees to a maximum 29-and-a-half hours a week, and classify them as part time.  That touched off an outcry on the Internet - people were saying that Forever 21 was being unfair and greedy - though the company says that only a small number of employees are affected, and that its decision has nothing to do with the Affordable Care Act.  There's really no way to know - Forever 21 is a private company, which means it's not obligated to disclose a whole lot.  What we do know is that those people will be losing their health care coverage.

Julian: And, the ultimate impact on businesses and workers?

Lacter: Steve, you're looking at several years before the picture becomes clear.  Here in California, workers not eligible for health care through their employer can get their own individual coverage, and if their income levels are not over a certain amount, they'd be eligible for Medicaid.  And, let's not forget many businesses already provide coverage for their employees.  So, lots of rhetoric - but, not many conclusions to draw from, which does make you wonder why so many business owners are unwilling to at least give this thing a chance.  Just doesn't seem to be much generosity of spirit for their workers, not to mention any recognition that if people can go to a doctor instead of an emergency room we'd probably all be better off.

Julian: Health care is far from the only controversy for Forever 21, true?

Lacter: In some ways, it's one of the biggest Southern California success stories.  Don Chang emigrated here in 1981 from Korea at the age of 18, opened his first store in Highland Park three years later (it was called Fashion 21), and he never looked back.  Today, revenues are approaching $4 billion.  But, the guy must have some pretty hefty legal bills because his company has been accused of all kinds of workplace violations.  The lawsuits alleged that workers preparing items for the Forever 21 stores didn't receive overtime, that they didn't get required work breaks, that they received substandard wages, and that they worked in dirty and unsafe conditions - sweatshop conditions, essentially.

Julian: Are most of their claims settled out of court?  You don't hear much about them.

Lacter: They are, which means there's usually a minimal amount of media coverage.  If a privately held company decides to keep quiet by not releasing financial results or other operational information, there's not likely to be much of a story - unlike what happens with a company like Apple, which is always under scrutiny.  Sometimes, plaintiffs will try to organize class-action suits, but that's extremely tough when you're dealing with low-wage workers who are often very reluctant to get involved because of their legal status.  And, let's not forget that Forever 21 - like any low-cost retailer - is simply catering to the demand for cheap, stylish clothes that are made as quickly as possible.

Julian: I guess you can't make that happen when wages and benefits are appreciably higher than your competition.

Lacter: The next time you walk into a Forever 21 store and wonder how prices can be so reasonable, that's how.

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

We've been reporting on the city of Los Angeles approving major developments without seismic studies attached.

Steve Julian: Business analyst Mark Lacter, why is this?

Mark Lacter: Steve, this is a real gotcha moment for the L.A. Planning Department, the City Council, and everyone else at City Hall who signed off on these projects.  The latest revelation, which was reported by the L.A. Times, shows that a planned 39-story residential tower in Century City is just 300 feet from the active Santa Monica fault.  And, we're only learning about this because the Metropolitan Transportation Authority did its own seismic testing near the site when it was looking for potential subway stops, and officials decided that it was too close to the fault.  This also comes after three large-scale projects in Hollywood were found to be located quite close to the active Hollywood fault.

Julian: The concern is that if any faults were to rupture, the foundation of a building could be split apart.

Lacter: Kind of an inconvenient truth both for the developers, who have millions of dollars riding on these projects, and for L.A. city officials who are betting on a future that will include many more high rises.  And, we should note that more than two-dozen high rises are either in the process of going up, or are at least on the drawing board.  In case you're wondering why there aren't regulations that monitor this sort of thing, the answer is that there are regulations.  California has a law that requires state geologists to map active earthquake faults, and then set zones on either side of the fault line.

Julian: Has the state done this?

Lacter: The state says it hasn't had the time nor the money to map areas within the city of L.A., though the faults have been known to be in the general vicinity of these projects - and so, you'd think the city would want them tested extensively.  Of course, that would mean more delays, which the developers wouldn't be happy with.

Julian: Of course, seismic studies are not always definitive.

Lacter: They're not - and it's possible that different geologists would come up with different findings.  But so far, most of the information seems to be coming from the developers, and you have to wonder whether it's a great idea to rely on folks who have a financial interest in a project to tell us what's safe and what isn't.  Probably not.

Julian: Your article in the new issue of Los Angeles Magazine raises a broader point about the city's business climate.

Lacter: Steve, for many years, L.A. has been branded as a terrible place to do business because of government interference, but that's largely a myth.  If anything, city officials have been too accommodating.  Frankly, the anti-business rap never made much sense when you consider the thousands of companies that start up here each year.  A study by the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers ranks L.A. particularly high when it comes to ease of doing business, which runs counter to the conventional wisdom.

Julian: You're not saying it's truly easy, are you?

Lacter: Easy, no.  There certainly are plenty of reasons for business owners to pull out their hair.  And those hassles, along with an unemployment rate that remains quite high, has given developers and others the leverage to ask for various giveaways.  All they have to do is say that their projects will generate more jobs, and city officials tend to respond favorably - no matter how questionable those proposals might be.  And, by the way, job creation doesn't always determine economic growth, certainly not in the short term.

Julian: We all remember during the mayoral campaign, candidates were talking about how their policies would lead to lower unemployment...

Lacter: ...right, almost like they could pick up jobs at Ralphs.  Well, it doesn't work that way.  Thing is, the city of L.A. doesn't need to cut so many deals - the local economy is rich enough and broad enough to keep prospering.  Which is why city officials would be much better off laying off the incentives, and focusing on the basics - public safety, transportation, the parks, and libraries.  Do that right, and the business climate will take care of itself.

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

Police say TSA agent Gerardo Hernandez was shot and killed last Friday at the base of the escalators of LAX Terminal 3, and not at the checkpoint gates.  Paul Ciancia is accused of killing Hernandez and wounding several others.  Ciancia remains hospitalized in critical condition.

Steve Julian: Business analyst Mark Lacter, how did the airlines respond to shooting and its aftermath?

Mark Lacter: Generally pretty well, Steve, considering that the airport was effectively closed for several hours on Friday, and most of Terminal 3 was out of commission until Saturday afternoon.  You know, there's always this precarious balance in operating airlines and airports, even in the best of circumstances.  Just so many flights coming in and going out, and so many thousands people using the facility at any given time - and it really doesn't take much to upset the balance.  So, when you have something horrific take place and you see all those travelers stranded outside the terminals, the ripple effects are enormous - not just at LAX but all over the country.

Julian: More than a thousand flights were either canceled or delayed on Friday.

Lacter: And, there was a further complication because the airlines flying out of Terminal 3 are not the legacy carriers like United, American, and Delta that have all kinds of resources, but smaller operations with less flexibility.  It's not like there's an empty aircraft just sitting in a hangar waiting to take passengers wherever they want to go.  Actually, the airlines have gotten better at arranging re-bookings when there's a snowstorm or some other emergency that gives them advance warning.  But obviously, there was no advance warning last Friday, so the carriers needed to improvise in handling passengers whose flights were cancelled.

Julian: What did they do?

Lacter: One step was waiving the fees normally charged to re-book flights (and that's gotten to be a pretty penny).  Another was waiving the difference in the price of the original ticket and the re-booked ticket.  But, the policies varied according to the airline, and we heard about travelers not receiving hotel or food vouchers, or having to buy a brand new ticket on another airline if they wanted to avoid the wait - and that can be expensive.  Which raises another issue: planes tend to be completely full these days because airlines have been cutting back on the number of flights.  And that can be a problem if you're taking a route that doesn't have too many flights in the first place.  So, it gets really complicated.

Julian: Why do you think we haven't we heard more horror stories from passengers?

Lacter: Well, look at the cities that the airlines in Terminal 3 fly to - New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Dallas.  They're all served by several other carriers.  L.A. to New York, in particular, is one of the busiest routes in the world, which means that it's also one of the most competitive.  So, even if your flight was cancelled, there's a good chance you'd be able to find space by Saturday (which is normally a slower day for air travel).  This is a big reason, in general, why people like LAX.

Julian: Why don't other local airports handle more of the load?

Lacter: You might remember a few years ago local officials were promoting something called "regionalization" - the idea was that as LAX maxed out on the number of passengers it was allowed to handle each year, then other airports would make up the difference - places like Ontario, Bob Hope in Burbank, and John Wayne in Orange County.

Julian: Right, and they talked about easing traffic congestion by spreading around the flights.

Lacter: Well, regionalization never happened because, first of all, passenger levels at L.A. International didn't come close to maxing out.  But, more importantly, because the airlines decided that using LAX was more efficient for everything from handling baggage to arranging international connections.  So, through the first nine months of the year, passenger traffic at LAX is up 4.2 percent from a year earlier, while at Ontario traffic was down 9.3 percent.  And, we've seen that John Wayne, Bob Hope, and Long Beach are all struggling.  Of course, the challenge at a busy place like LAX is making it as safe as possible, and that will no doubt become a priority in the weeks ahead.

Mark Lacter writes for Los Angeles Magazine and pens the business blog at LA Observed.com.

This content is from Southern California Public Radio. View the original story at SCPR.org.

; Credit: Courtesy Randy Newman

Read the full article at LAist

Using 3D modeling and simulations to target tumors

Will Davidson and his Minecraft creation, modeled off the Santa Cruz Mission; Credit: Steve Henn

Minecraft is a deceptively simple video game. You're dropped into a virtual world, and you get to build things. It's like a digital Lego set, but with infinite pieces.

Its simplicity makes it a big hit with kids, like 10-year old Will Davidson. Last year, Will built a Spanish mission for a school report. He modeled his off the Santa Cruz Mission. "I made a chapel over here," Davidson says. "I also have a bell tower."

After he turned in his report, he added a few things. Like skeleton archers. "And zombies ... and exploding things, and spiders, that try to kill you," he said.

Minecraft is popular with kids because they're free to create almost anything, says Ramin Shokrizade, a game designer.

Also, kids aren't manipulated into clicking buttons to buy add-ons within the game. In other games, designers give players a special power for free at first, then take it away and offer it back at a price.

Zynga, the creator of Farmville, calls this fun pain, according to Shokrizade. "That's the idea that, if you make the consumer uncomfortable enough, and then tell them that for money we'll make you less uncomfortable, then [they] will give us money," he says.

Kids, Shokrizade says, are especially susceptible to this — and Minecraft has a loyal following, in part, because it doesn't do it.

Susan Linn, from the Campaign for a Commercial-Free Childhood, agrees. She says a big reason she likes Minecraft is because after you purchase the game upfront, that's it.

"Parents don't have to worry that their kids are going to be targeted for more marketing," Linn says. "How forward-thinking!"

But Linn is worried. Microsoft bought Mojang, the company that created Minecraft, on Monday for $2.5 billion, and she says that any time a large company spends billions to acquire a smaller company, executives are bound start looking for new ways to get even more money out of it.

We reported last week that layoffs were coming soon to Warner Brothers, but how many positions will be cut is still unknown.  

A spokesman for Warner Brothers Entertainment, Paul McGuire, told KPCC there's no exact number yet. "There is no headcount reduction target, but there is a substantial financial target," Maguire said. 

“This is a budget issue, not a head count issue,” Dee Dee Myers, Warner Brothers Vice President of Corporation Communications told Variety.  The trade publication reports that Warner Brothers is expected to eliminate as many as 1,000 positions worldwide - or about 10 percent of its workforce:

Senior managers are currently assessing their businesses to come up with ways to trim overhead. Only at the end of that process will an exact reduction figure be known. It could be somewhat lower than the current numbers being speculated, but cuts are expected to be substantial.  

News of coming layoffs became public two weeks ago, when KPCC and other media outlets obtained an internal memo written by Warner Bros. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Tsujihara.   

"It pains me to say this, positions will be eliminated—at every level—across the Studio," Tsujihara wrote in the memo. 

Morningstar Analyst Neil Macker told KPCC that management at Warner Brothers is trying to protect the company from another takeover play by Rupert Murdoch.  In July, Murdoch offered to buy parent company Time Warner for $80 billion. He withdrew the offer in August. 

Egan Food Technologies, a confectionery and baking process equipment manufacturer and service provider, will unveil at Pack Expo a new slab-bar forming line that is manufactured and serviced from the company’s headquarters in Grand Rapids, Mich. 

The hyper-detect^® from tna and Safeline is the world’s first non-symmetrical balanced coil metal detector with a conical aperture into the detector.

From its ancient Mediterranean roots, mint throughout history has been widely used for its medicinal properties, as it is rich in vitamin A, C and other healthy minerals. 

POP Gourmet Foods, Tukwila, WA—a manufacturer of high-end popcorn products, as well as chips and croutons—maintains an international customer base in mass merchandise, warehouse/club, specialty and traditional grocery, foodservice, airlines and hotels, among others.

SexyPop has added another unique flavor to its line of gourmet popcorn: Pineapple Habanero.

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:32 GMT

Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:32 GMT

Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:41 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:57 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:39 GMT

KMZ last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:58 GMT

Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:22 GMT

Issued at Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:48:34 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.

Kentucky homeowners are beginning to look at solar to lower their energy costs.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

729 
FONT14 KNHC 140848
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   6(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  10(16)   9(25)   6(31)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   3(23)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   6( 6)  25(31)  14(45)  21(66)   3(69)   1(70)
GUANAJA        50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)  10(22)   2(24)   1(25)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

000
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
 
The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen has been moving faster, just south of 
due west, or 265/14 kt, although it should begin slowing down later 
today.  A mid-level ridge centered to the north of the depression 
over the Straits of Florida should keep it on a westward track until 
Friday, taking the system near the north coast of eastern Honduras, 
and possibly inland.  After that, the ridge is expected to break 
down, and the models agree that the cyclone will meander in weak 
steering currents late Friday through the weekend.  This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America.  By early next week, ridging should become 
re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which 
should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula.  Very little change was made to the first 3 days 
of the track forecast.  Beyond day 3, there has been a notable 
westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC forecast is a bit 
west of the previous forecast beyond day 3, but not as far west as 
the bulk of the latest model guidance.
 
Environmental conditions are conducive for intensification during 
the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low 
vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities. 
However, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in how much 
land interaction with Honduras occurs.  The majority of the models 
are showing the center move just barely inland over Honduras, or 
parking it right on the coastline, between hour 48 and 72. However, 
if the system stays offshore, as shown by the latest HWRF model 
solution, it could take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic conditions and continue to strengthen.  The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but 
then is about 5 kt lower than the previous forecast since this 
forecast shows a bit more land interaction beyond 36 h.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is above the high end of the guidance 
envelope beyond 36 h.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
 
2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for
portions of that area.
 
3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.9N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 140846
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  81.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N  83.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N  85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N  87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N  89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  81.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Nineteen was located near 15.9, -82.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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