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1. Germany to hold snap election in February after government's coalition collapse  ABC News
2. The briefcase, the Porsche and the collapse of the German government – podcast  The Guardian
3. Germany set for snap election following collapse of Olaf Scholz’s coalition  The Conversation
4. President calls German early election plan 'realistic'  DW (English)

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Parties agree 23 February vote after chancellor torpedoed the coalition government by sacking finance minister.

The break-up of Scholz’s coalition government signals the end of Germany’s old economic model Expert comment jon.wallace 12 November 2024

The coalition could not agree how to fund new support for Ukraine and failed to fully implement the ‘Zeitenwende’. A new government must push through reform.

As Europeans were still processing Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election, an acrimonious break up occurred 4000 miles east of Washington DC.

Reports had been circulating for weeks about the fragile state of Germany’s ‘traffic light’ coalition government led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, consisting of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, and liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

The expectation had been that the coalition would hold on for a few more weeks and might even be given a new lease of life by Trump’s re-election. Instead, it collapsed on the day Trump’s win was confirmed. An unusually angry Scholtz announced in a live address that he had fired FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner, effectively breaking up the coalition.

At the heart of the dispute was the so-called ‘debt brake’ – a constitutional mechanism which restricts Germany’s annual public deficit to 0.35 per cent of GDP. Lindner proposed a set of reforms which were unpalatable to the SPD and the Greens. 

In response, Scholz suggested declaring an emergency, which would have suspended the debt brake. That in turn was unacceptable to Lindner, leading to his sacking by the Chancellor.

Practically, this means the SPD and the Greens are now in a minority coalition, without agreement on the 2025 budget or the votes in parliament to pass it. They also still face the challenge of the debt brake.

A vote of confidence will take place in December, with elections to be held before the end of February 2025 latest.

The end of Germany’s economic model

At the root of Germany’s political crisis is the country’s economic model. For decades, Germany relied on a system that depended on cheap Russian gas, cheap imports of consumer goods from China, high-value exports – particularly in the automotive sector – and the US security umbrella.

With Russian energy no longer viable, the global economic landscape shifting, and Donald Trump on his way back to the White House, that model is no longer workable. And Germany’s economy is expected to contract by 0.2 per cent in 2024 – a contraction for the second year running.

The ‘Zeitenwende’, announced by Scholz in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, should have signalled a turnaround of both foreign and economic policy, given how much the two are interconnected. Yet on both fronts, too little changed.

Germany’s reliance on Russian gas did come to an abrupt end in 2022. And Germany is Ukraine’s second largest military aid donor after the US, while accepting the most Ukrainian refugees.

But the ‘Zeitenwende’ turnaround ended there. Scholz’s coalition government failed to prepare for long-term investment in defence at the levels required by creating an off-budget defence spending fund which would have run out in 2027. The draft budget for 2025 showed defence spending would have been cut, as would support for Ukraine.

Germany has also struggled to turn around its economic woes, with the car industry particularly affected. Cheap Chinese EVs and new energy technologies are competing with Germany’s most powerful companies. Volkswagen, the country’s largest car manufacturer, has announced plant closures and layoffs due to shrinking profit margins.  

To the west, Trump’s threat to impose 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on all EU imports meant share prices of Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedez-Benz and Porsche all dropped between 4 to 7 per cent following news of his re-election.

To the east, trade tensions between the EU and China are intensifying. Yet rather than choosing to diversify, German companies have doubled down on their bets in China, with German investment in the country rising from €6.5bn for the whole of 2023 to €7.3bn in the first half of 2024 alone – only exposing carmakers further.

Germany’s support for Ukraine

Like French President Emmanuel Macron, Scholz had already been weakened by the results of the European Parliamentary elections in June. With the collapse of his traffic light coalition, the EU’s Franco-German ‘engine’ is now well and truly stalled – until new leadership can be found. This weakness comes at a perilous moment when clear, united European leadership, and much increased funding, is needed to shore up support for Ukraine.

Expert

14 September 2020

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BERLIN: Germany is headed for snap elections on February 23, the main parties agreed on Tuesday, aiming to form a stable government after Chan­cellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed last week.

The country’s two biggest parties agreed on the early timetable, which will see centre-left leader Scholz seek a vote of confidence on December 16, said the parliamentary leader of Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), Rolf Muetzenich.

This would pave the way for the February vote in a compromise hammered out with the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies CSU.

The agreement seeks to quickly restore political stability at a time when Europe’s biggest economy is set to shrink for a second year in a row and amid heightened geopolitical volatility, with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.

As per agreement between two biggest parties, Chancellor Scholz will seek trust vote on Dec 16

The election date would mean Germany will be ruled by a lame-duck chancellor and stuck in the middle of its campaign period when Donald Trump is inaugurated as US president on January 20.

Embattled Scholz, who wants to run again despite poor poll ratings, initially suggested an election in late March but came under heavy pressure from all other parties to speed up the process.

The CDU is riding high in the polls and its leader Friedrich Merz had pushed strongly for an election as early as possible — a demand backed by two thirds of voters, according to a recent survey.

“We don’t have unlimited time to elect a new government in Germany, regardless of who leads it… because the world around us is not waiting,” Merz said on Tuesday.

“It’s not as if everyone is holding their breath and watching Germany in fascination, as decisions are taken in Europe, Asia and the United States.

“The world expects a Germany that is capable of taking action.”

Winter election campaign

The February 23 date would force politicians to run their campaigns in the dark and cold of winter, when voters will be less enthusiastic to flock to outdoor events than during the usual summer campaign seasons.

Scholz is expected to lose the confidence vote in the lower house of parliament, after which President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag.

Elections have to be held within 60 days of the dissolution.

Scholz took office in late 2021, taking over from the CDU’s Angela Merkel, in a three-way coalition with the left-leaning Greens and the liberal and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).

But mounting differences over economic and fiscal policy came to a head last week when Scholz fired the rebellious FDP finance minister Christian Linder, prompting the small party to leave the government.

Since then, Scholz’s SPD and the Greens have carried on in a minority government that would need opposition support to pass any laws — something the CDU/CSU had rejected in the absence of clarity on an election date.

Future scenarios

Scholz’s coalition marked the first time a tripartite alliance has ruled at the federal level, and it may not be the last, given Germany’s increasingly fragmented political party landscape.

Fears about immigration have driven the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. It is now polling at close to 20 per cent, but other parties have pledged to shun it as a coalition partner.

The latest polls put the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance firmly in the lead at 32pc.

To win a majority, however, the conservatives would likely need the future backing of the SPD, which is currently polling at 15.5pc, in a so-called grand coalition, plus a third party.

Contenders for that spot, according to current polling, would be either the FDP, with five percent support, or possibly the Greens, who are polling at 11pc.

Lindner, who has said he wants to be finance minister again, on Tuesday welcomed the date for new elections, saying:“Happily we now have clarity on this question.” He earlier said that he thought Merz “will almost certainly be the next chancellor of Ger­many. The only question is: Who will chancellor Merz govern with?”

Published in Dawn, November 13th, 2024

Watch Video | Listen to the Audio

JUDY WOODRUFF: But first: Sunday’s elections Austria were the latest ample of a shift to the right Europe’s politics, as 31-year-old Christian Kurz was elected chancellor on an anti-immigration platform.

He may now form a government with a far-right party founded in the 1950s by former Nazis.

That follows recent elections in Germany, where a far-right party roiled the race and dealt a blow to returning leader Angela Merkel.

In Sweden, too, there is a strong challenge from the right and a neo-Nazi group that looks stand in elections next year.

Special correspondent Malcolm Brabant ha been surveying the political landscape in Germany and Sweden, and he begins his report in Scandinavia.

MALCOLM BRABANT, Special Correspondent: In a Gothenburg parking lot, supporters of the Nordic Resistance Movement form up for what they hope will be their biggest-ever march, to propagate an ideology espoused by mother of eight Paulina Forslund.

PAULINA FORSLUND, Nordic Resistance Movement: When white becomes the minority, they will be destroyed. I want my children to have a secure future. I want them not only for them to have a secure Sweden. I want them to have a secure world. And I want other people to fight for the same thing.

MALCOLM BRABANT: When addressing her fellow neo-Nazis, Forslund’s rhetoric sharpens.

PAULINA FORSLUND (through interpreter): I’m the welder’s daughter, the forester’s grandchild. My line consists of hardworking men and women. It’s people like them we can thank for the welfare system that our lying politicians are now giving away to imported scum.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Clearly expecting trouble, the movement’s leaders have a muscular protection detail, marching past a silent protest. The sign reads “No Nazis on our streets.”

This protester would only give her name as Johanna.

JOHANNA, Anti-Nazi Protester: They are racist people. They are people who think that certain people are better than others, and I will not stand for that. It’s not something I think has a place in a modern society.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Experts say the resistance movement is recruiting aggressively, and believe this demonstration is emblematic of the rise of the far right.

It took place on Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement.

Allan Stutzinky is leader of Gothenburg’s Jewish community.

ALLAN STUTZINKY, Jewish Community Leader (through interpreter): Nazism has returned. The descendants of the murderers are organizing the same marches today, waving the same flags, shouting the same slogans, and have the same racist agenda.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Anna Johansson is a member of the governing Social Democrat Party. It’s considering outlawing the Nordic Resistance Movement.

ANNA JOHANSSON, Swedish Social Democratic Party: In Sweden and in Denmark, and in other countries, extreme parties are growing, and the hatred is spreading around.

MALCOLM BRABANT: “Go home to mama,” he shouts. “Nazi pigs,” chant the anti- fascist protesters, as a bottle flies through the air.

DAMON, Nordic Resistance Movement: If someone calls themselves a Nazi, most of us would dissociate with that person. That’s nothing we stand for ourselves. I never call myself a Nazi. I’m a national socialist.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Hitler’s party was also called National Socialist, but Damon, a 40-year-old welder, insists he’s a nonviolent family man.

DAMON: The demographic landscape of our — of the whole of Europe is changing, so, basically, it’s a concern on preserving my heritage for my family and our kin.

MALCOLM BRABANT: This demonstration has been stopped short of its destination. The Nordic Resistance Movement is currently trapped between a line of police and anti-fascist protesters. And it looks as though this demonstration isn’t going any further.

Violence briefly erupts as the resistance movement tries to break through police lines, and several marchers are arrested.

PAULINA FORSLUND: We are not your enemy. We are the government’s enemy.

They say we live in a democracy, but we have never had an election about if we want to take all these people in.

MALCOLM BRABANT: When Europe’s refugee crisis began in 2015, Sweden copied Germany’s open-door policy, and 160,000 migrants entered the country. Two years on, Sweden has tighter borders and has begun deporting some of the newcomers.

The new atmosphere alarms Floid Gumbo, entertaining an anti-Nazi rally.

FLOID GUMBO, Singer Originally from Zimbabwe: I came to Sweden over 20 years ago. The climate in Sweden, the people were so friendly, and things were completely different, more welcoming. And I feel like things have sort of gradually changed.

I’m very concerned, because I have children, because I’m thinking what I experienced here is not the same kind of climate, atmosphere that they are going to experience here.

ANNA JOHANSSON: It’s not so long ago that the Nazis ruined Europe. And that makes me very worried. The German elections were terrifying, I think.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Johansson is referring to last month’s success of the right-wing Alternative For Germany Party, or AFD, when it entered Parliament for the first time with 13 percent of the vote.

HUGH BRONSON, Alternative For Germany Party: The AFD only came into existence because Merkel deserted the traditional conservative Christian voters. They were looking for a home, and the AFD has offered them a safe place.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Hugh Bronson is deputy leader of the AFD in Berlin.

Now his party, the third largest in Parliament, is demanding that Angela Merkel imposes tougher immigration rules.

Your opponents claim that you are a party of hate. What’s your response to that?

HUGH BRONSON: We embrace foreigners who respect our laws, pay their taxes, send their children to school, and go about their normal life. The problem is with people who abuse the system to have a better life, or let others pay for their better lives, or who are criminals.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Outside the opera house in Dresden, former East Germany, singer Luca Bergelt is dismayed by the political landscape shifting to the right.

LUCA BERGELT, Singer: My fear is that they will tear Europe apart. They are going to raise up the walls again. They’re going to build new walls between the countries, and that Europe will get more close into itself.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Anti-immigrant sentiment is strong in Dresden. The city was the birthplace of a pan-European anti-Islamic movement, and it delivered the largest number of votes for the right-wing party.

On a holiday to celebrate German unification after the fall of communism, retired engineer Wilfried Schmidt explained why he sent a message to Angela Merkel.

WILFRIED SCHMIDT, Retired Engineer (through interpretor): Let’s put it this way. We all need to recognize that Germany is undergoing social changes that are becoming harder to control. For one, there is mass immigration from difficult regions that is increasingly uncontrollable, of people with entirely different concepts of life, from fundamental differently structured societies that are problematic.

MALCOLM BRABANT: About one million migrants poured into Germany in 2015. Chancellor Merkel consistently defended her pro-refugee policies, but now she has been punished by voters who believe she ignored their concerns.

Chancellor Merkel has promised to listen to the people who voted for the AFD, and she says she’s going to try to win them over with what she calls good politics. But she will not countenance having the party in her coalition.

But the chancellor needs to find new partners who are prepared to be tough on immigration.

As she tries to forge a coalition, the chancellor has agreed to put an annual cap of 200,000 on the number of immigrants, something she previously refused to do. But will it be enough to woo back people who deserted her at the election?

A question for Werner Patzelt, a political scientist at Dresden University.

WERNER PATZELT, Dresden University: Since Chancellor Merkel has made so many U-turns in German domestic politics, it wouldn’t be a surprise if she would try to do a U-turn, also winning back AFD voters.

But this is a really hard political task, because so many of them are so much disappointed by the Christian Democratic Union in general, and by Chancellor Merkel in particular, that they will do anything to avoid going back.

MALCOLM BRABANT: Back in Sweden, the governing party is horrified at the concept of conceding ground to right-wingers, and is trying to isolate them.

ANNA JOHANSSON: Experience shows that, when you adopt the ideas from these right-wing parties, they spread. These parties have their agenda implemented by other parties. And I wouldn’t want to see that happen in Sweden.

FLOID GUMBO: We’re all human beings. We share this world. We’re all here. There’s enough space for us all.

MALCOLM BRABANT: But that’s an appeal that an increasing number of Swedes are rejecting, as the country and much of Europe go through a crisis of identity.

For the PBS NewsHour, I’m Malcolm Brabant in Gothenburg.

The post Far-right groups gain ground in Sweden and Germany amid migrant influx appeared first on PBS NewsHour.

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