forecasting DFSeer: A Visual Analytics Approach to Facilitate Model Selection for Demand Forecasting. (arXiv:2005.03244v1 [cs.HC]) By arxiv.org Published On :: Selecting an appropriate model to forecast product demand is critical to the manufacturing industry. However, due to the data complexity, market uncertainty and users' demanding requirements for the model, it is challenging for demand analysts to select a proper model. Although existing model selection methods can reduce the manual burden to some extent, they often fail to present model performance details on individual products and reveal the potential risk of the selected model. This paper presents DFSeer, an interactive visualization system to conduct reliable model selection for demand forecasting based on the products with similar historical demand. It supports model comparison and selection with different levels of details. Besides, it shows the difference in model performance on similar products to reveal the risk of model selection and increase users' confidence in choosing a forecasting model. Two case studies and interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of DFSeer. Full Article
forecasting System and method for forecasting production from a hydrocarbon reservoir By www.freepatentsonline.com Published On :: Tue, 26 May 2015 08:00:00 EDT A system and method is taught to substantially automate forecasting for a hydrocarbon producing reservoir through integration of modeling module workflows. A control management module automatically generates static and dynamic offspring models, with static and dynamic modeling software, until a performance objective associated with the forecasting of the reservoir is satisfied. The performance objective can include an experimental design table to determine a sensitivity of a particular parameter or can be directed towards reservoir optimization, i.e., ultimate hydrocarbon recovery, net present value, reservoir percentage yield, reservoir fluid flow rate, or history matching error. Full Article
forecasting How WA is on track to have Australia's most advanced weather forecasting system By www.abc.net.au Published On :: Mon, 06 May 2019 11:02:00 +1000 The weather serves as both a great unifier and obsession for most Australians and now the Bureau of Meteorology is about to bring in the next generation of online forecasting technology. Full Article ABC Great Southern canberra sydney brisbane greatsouthern southwestwa esperance wheatbelt perth Community and Society:History:All Disasters and Accidents:All:All Disasters and Accidents:Storm:All Rural:Agricultural Crops:All Rural:Agricultural Crops:Grain Rural:All:All Rural:Livestock:All Rural:Livestock:Sheep Production Science and Technology:All:All Weather:All:All Australia:ACT:Canberra 2600 Australia:NSW:Sydney 2000 Australia:QLD:All Australia:QLD:Brisbane 4000 Australia:WA:Albany 6330 Australia:WA:All Australia:WA:Bunbury 6230 Australia:WA:Esperance 6450 Australia:WA:Geraldton 6530 Australia:WA:Newdegate 6355 Australia:WA:Perth 6000
forecasting MetLife, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year By news.yahoo.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 10:30:10 -0400 MetLife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors... Full Article
forecasting Forecasting Forum 2020 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 15 Jan 2020 15:35:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 17 February 2020 - 2:00pm to 5:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Professor Tim Benton, Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham HouseProfessor Paul Stevens, Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham HouseAntony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham HouseChair: Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme The Forecasting Forum 2020 will present the latest thinking from the Chatham House Energy, Environment and Resources Department's senior research team on the dynamics that will affect fossil fuel and energy investments and markets in the year ahead.14:00 - 14:30 | Introduction and Climate Risks Outlook In the last decade, following the financial crisis, the literature on systemic risks has grown. Systemic risks occur when complex, non-linear, interconnected systems fail, often through relatively small perturbations, as their impacts cascade and amplify across the system. Within this context, climate change is a 'threat multiplier' with the risks increasing in scale, frequency and magnitude. Just as complex systems can pass thresholds and tip from a functional state to a non-functional state, so can societies and people’s attitudes. Together risk cascades or systemic risks and attitudinal tipping points have the potential to rapidly change the way the world works. Professor Tim Benton will open the Forecasting Forum 2020 with reflections on what this might mean for the pace and linearity of the fossil fuel transition.14:30 - 15:30 | Session 1: An Outlook on Oil Prices in 2020In this session, Professor Paul Stevens will argue that the recent events associated with the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani have exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to political events and brought 'geopolitics' back into global oil prices. Up to 2014, geopolitics played a key role in determining oil prices in the paper markets where perceptions and expectations ruled. By 2014, the world was so oversupplied with real oil barrels that the oil price collapsed and little attention was given to geopolitical events as geopolitics became marginalized in the determination of crude oil prices. However, recent events in the Middle East suggest that prices will become increasingly volatile but, at the same time, benefit from a rising geopolitical premium.15:45 - 16:45 | Session 2: An Outlook for Energy in 2020Recent years have brought significant disruption to the European power sector. Not only are many of Europe’s major utilities restructuring their businesses in light of decarbonization and technological developments but Brexit has distracted - and detracted from - efforts to create more systemic energy linkages between the UK and the rest of Europe. During his presentation, Antony Froggatt will draw on his ongoing research to outline what he believes are the prevailing challenges and opportunities for the European power sector over the coming year while highlighting some of the most significant global trends.Please note, attendance at this event is by invitation only. Event attributes Chatham House Rule Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Sustainable Transitions Series Chloé Prendleloup Email Full Article
forecasting Forecasting Crime Part 1 By www.ams.org Published On :: Tue, 21 Aug 2012 09:49:48 -0400 No one can predict who will commit a crime but in some cities math is helping detect areas where crimes have the greatest chance of occurring. Police then increase patrols in these "hot spots" in order to prevent crime. This innovative practice, called predictive policing, is based on large amounts of data collected from previous crimes, but it involves more than just maps and push pins. Predictive policing identifies hot spots by using algorithms similar to those used to predict aftershocks after major earthquakes. Just as aftershocks are more likely near a recent earthquake.s epicenter, so too are crimes, as criminals do indeed return to, or very close to, the scene of a crime. Cities employing this approach have seen crime rates drop and studies are underway to measure predictive policing.s part in that drop. One fact that has been determined concerns the nature of hot spots. Researchers using partial differential equations and bifurcation theory have discovered two types of hot spots, which respond quite differently to increased patrols. One type will shift to another area of the city while the other will disappear entirely. Unfortunately the two appear the same on the surface, so mathematicians and others are working to help police find ways to differentiate between the two so as to best allocate their resources. Full Article
forecasting Fossil Fuel Expert Roundtable: Forecasting Forum 2017 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 22 Dec 2016 16:38:00 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 31 January 2017 - 2:00pm to 5:30pm Chatham House, London Presenting latest thinking from our senior research fellows on the dynamics that will affect fossil fuels investment and markets in the year ahead and promoting high-level discussion amongst experts.The first session examines the oil price market which faces great uncertainty in 2017 with the OPEC agreement in Algiers raising questions about compliance, supply and impact on the industry's future. It will also assess how US production may alter given the new administration; the state of the nuclear agreement with Iran; and future events in the Middle East.The second session looks at what Brexit and the election of President Trump means for energy and climate policy in the UK and globally, investigating the major challenges, areas of contention, and areas of opportunity for the UK’s climate and energy policy in light of Brexit.The second speaker in this session will outline what the appointment of President Trump will mean for global energy and climate policy.Attendance at this event is by invitation only. Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme Full Article
forecasting Forecasting Forum 2020 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 15 Jan 2020 15:35:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 17 February 2020 - 2:00pm to 5:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Professor Tim Benton, Research Director, Emerging Risks; Director, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham HouseProfessor Paul Stevens, Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham HouseAntony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Chatham HouseChair: Glada Lahn, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme The Forecasting Forum 2020 will present the latest thinking from the Chatham House Energy, Environment and Resources Department's senior research team on the dynamics that will affect fossil fuel and energy investments and markets in the year ahead.14:00 - 14:30 | Introduction and Climate Risks Outlook In the last decade, following the financial crisis, the literature on systemic risks has grown. Systemic risks occur when complex, non-linear, interconnected systems fail, often through relatively small perturbations, as their impacts cascade and amplify across the system. Within this context, climate change is a 'threat multiplier' with the risks increasing in scale, frequency and magnitude. Just as complex systems can pass thresholds and tip from a functional state to a non-functional state, so can societies and people’s attitudes. Together risk cascades or systemic risks and attitudinal tipping points have the potential to rapidly change the way the world works. Professor Tim Benton will open the Forecasting Forum 2020 with reflections on what this might mean for the pace and linearity of the fossil fuel transition.14:30 - 15:30 | Session 1: An Outlook on Oil Prices in 2020In this session, Professor Paul Stevens will argue that the recent events associated with the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani have exacerbated the sensitivity of oil markets to political events and brought 'geopolitics' back into global oil prices. Up to 2014, geopolitics played a key role in determining oil prices in the paper markets where perceptions and expectations ruled. By 2014, the world was so oversupplied with real oil barrels that the oil price collapsed and little attention was given to geopolitical events as geopolitics became marginalized in the determination of crude oil prices. However, recent events in the Middle East suggest that prices will become increasingly volatile but, at the same time, benefit from a rising geopolitical premium.15:45 - 16:45 | Session 2: An Outlook for Energy in 2020Recent years have brought significant disruption to the European power sector. Not only are many of Europe’s major utilities restructuring their businesses in light of decarbonization and technological developments but Brexit has distracted - and detracted from - efforts to create more systemic energy linkages between the UK and the rest of Europe. During his presentation, Antony Froggatt will draw on his ongoing research to outline what he believes are the prevailing challenges and opportunities for the European power sector over the coming year while highlighting some of the most significant global trends.Please note, attendance at this event is by invitation only. Event attributes Chatham House Rule Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Sustainable Transitions Series Chloé Prendleloup Email Full Article
forecasting A Critical Overview of Privacy-Preserving Approaches for Collaborative Forecasting. (arXiv:2004.09612v3 [cs.LG] UPDATED) By arxiv.org Published On :: Cooperation between different data owners may lead to an improvement in forecast quality - for instance by benefiting from spatial-temporal dependencies in geographically distributed time series. Due to business competitive factors and personal data protection questions, said data owners might be unwilling to share their data, which increases the interest in collaborative privacy-preserving forecasting. This paper analyses the state-of-the-art and unveils several shortcomings of existing methods in guaranteeing data privacy when employing Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The paper also provides mathematical proofs and numerical analysis to evaluate existing privacy-preserving methods, dividing them into three groups: data transformation, secure multi-party computations, and decomposition methods. The analysis shows that state-of-the-art techniques have limitations in preserving data privacy, such as a trade-off between privacy and forecasting accuracy, while the original data in iterative model fitting processes, in which intermediate results are shared, can be inferred after some iterations. Full Article
forecasting Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both genders jointly in over 60 countries By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 15 Apr 2020 22:05 EDT Yicheng Li, Adrian E. Raftery. Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 381--408.Abstract: Smoking is one of the leading preventable threats to human health and a major risk factor for lung cancer, upper aerodigestive cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Estimating and forecasting the smoking attributable fraction (SAF) of mortality can yield insights into smoking epidemics and also provide a basis for more accurate mortality and life expectancy projection. Peto et al. ( Lancet 339 (1992) 1268–1278) proposed a method to estimate the SAF using the lung cancer mortality rate as an indicator of exposure to smoking in the population of interest. Here, we use the same method to estimate the all-age SAF (ASAF) for both genders for over 60 countries. We document a strong and cross-nationally consistent pattern of the evolution of the SAF over time. We use this as the basis for a new Bayesian hierarchical model to project future male and female ASAF from over 60 countries simultaneously. This gives forecasts as well as predictive distributions that can be used to find uncertainty intervals for any quantity of interest. We assess the model using out-of-sample predictive validation and find that it provides good forecasts and well-calibrated forecast intervals, comparing favorably with other methods. Full Article
forecasting Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: A winning solution to the NIJ “Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge” By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 27 Nov 2019 22:01 EST Seth Flaxman, Michael Chirico, Pau Pereira, Charles Loeffler. Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2564--2585.Abstract: We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method which we developed for the National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ) Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge (National Institute of Justice (2017)). Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable randomized Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) methods for approximating Gaussian processes with autoregressive smoothing kernels in a regularized supervised learning framework. While the smoothing kernels capture the two main approaches in current use in the field of crime forecasting, kernel density estimation (KDE) and self-exciting point process (SEPP) models, the RKHS component of the model can be understood as an approximation to the popular log-Gaussian Cox Process model. For inference, we discretize the spatiotemporal point pattern and learn a log-intensity function using the Poisson likelihood and highly efficient gradient-based optimization methods. Model hyperparameters including quality of RKHS approximation, spatial and temporal kernel lengthscales, number of autoregressive lags and bandwidths for smoothing kernels as well as cell shape, size and rotation, were learned using cross validation. Resulting predictions significantly exceeded baseline KDE estimates and SEPP models for sparse events. Full Article
forecasting Distributional regression forests for probabilistic precipitation forecasting in complex terrain By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Wed, 16 Oct 2019 22:03 EDT Lisa Schlosser, Torsten Hothorn, Reto Stauffer, Achim Zeileis. Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1564--1589.Abstract: To obtain a probabilistic model for a dependent variable based on some set of explanatory variables, a distributional approach is often adopted where the parameters of the distribution are linked to regressors. In many classical models this only captures the location of the distribution but over the last decade there has been increasing interest in distributional regression approaches modeling all parameters including location, scale and shape. Notably, so-called nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) models both mean and variance of a Gaussian response and is particularly popular in weather forecasting. Moreover, generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) provide a framework where each distribution parameter is modeled separately capturing smooth linear or nonlinear effects. However, when variable selection is required and/or there are nonsmooth dependencies or interactions (especially unknown or of high-order), it is challenging to establish a good GAMLSS. A natural alternative in these situations would be the application of regression trees or random forests but, so far, no general distributional framework is available for these. Therefore, a framework for distributional regression trees and forests is proposed that blends regression trees and random forests with classical distributions from the GAMLSS framework as well as their censored or truncated counterparts. To illustrate these novel approaches in practice, they are employed to obtain probabilistic precipitation forecasts at numerous sites in a mountainous region (Tyrol, Austria) based on a large number of numerical weather prediction quantities. It is shown that the novel distributional regression forests automatically select variables and interactions, performing on par or often even better than GAMLSS specified either through prior meteorological knowledge or a computationally more demanding boosting approach. Full Article
forecasting Bayesian Functional Forecasting with Locally-Autoregressive Dependent Processes By projecteuclid.org Published On :: Thu, 19 Dec 2019 22:10 EST Guillaume Kon Kam King, Antonio Canale, Matteo Ruggiero. Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 4, 1121--1141.Abstract: Motivated by the problem of forecasting demand and offer curves, we introduce a class of nonparametric dynamic models with locally-autoregressive behaviour, and provide a full inferential strategy for forecasting time series of piecewise-constant non-decreasing functions over arbitrary time horizons. The model is induced by a non Markovian system of interacting particles whose evolution is governed by a resampling step and a drift mechanism. The former is based on a global interaction and accounts for the volatility of the functional time series, while the latter is determined by a neighbourhood-based interaction with the past curves and accounts for local trend behaviours, separating these from pure noise. We discuss the implementation of the model for functional forecasting by combining a population Monte Carlo and a semi-automatic learning approach to approximate Bayesian computation which require limited tuning. We validate the inference method with a simulation study, and carry out predictive inference on a real dataset on the Italian natural gas market. Full Article
forecasting Retail forecasting through a pandemic By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 12:00:11 +0000 [Jessica Curtis and Adam Hillman, both Forecasting Advisors at SAS, were co-authors of this post] The world has been dramatically impacted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us are juggling a completely new lifestyle that was forced upon us overnight. As consumers find their way to a new normal, [...] Retail forecasting through a pandemic was published on SAS Voices by Brittany Bullard Full Article Uncategorized coronavirus COVID-19 demand forecasting retail
forecasting M4 Forecasting Competition: Results and Commentary By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 08 Jan 2020 22:44:54 +0000 The International Journal of Forecasting has published its 2020-Q1 issue, guest edited by Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, and dedicated entirely to results and commentary on the M4 Forecasting Competition. This issue should be of great interest and value to business forecasting practitioners, and you get online access to it [...] The post M4 Forecasting Competition: Results and Commentary appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized Foresight Fotios Petropoulos IIF IJF Intenational Journal of Forecasting International Institute of Forecasters M4 Forecasting Competition Spyros Makridakis
forecasting Get ready for M5 with launch of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Centre By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Fri, 10 Jan 2020 17:22:09 +0000 With 2018's M4 Forecasting Competition behind us (although analysis, interpretation, and debate continue), the new M5 Competition starts March 2. Running through June 30, M5 is utilizing actual data provided by Walmart. It will be implemented using Kaggle's Platform, with $100,000 in prize money. Forecasting practitioners are encouraged to participate, [...] The post Get ready for M5 with launch of the Makridakis Open Forecasting Centre appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized Forecasting Competitions International Journal of Forecasting M4 M5 Makridakis Open Forecasting Center MOFC Spyros Makridakis
forecasting 2 first steps to effecting forecasting process change By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 19 Feb 2020 20:17:14 +0000 What if you suspect something is wrong with your forecasting process? What if the process is consuming too much time and too many resources, while still delivering unsatisfactory results (lousy forecasts). What can you do about it? This post looks at the first two steps to effecting meaningful forecasting process [...] The post 2 first steps to effecting forecasting process change appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized
forecasting The difficult step in effecting forecasting process change (1 of 2) By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 05 Mar 2020 21:55:19 +0000 Two weeks ago we looked at the first two steps in effecting forecasting process change: Justify your suspicions with data Communicate your findings That was the easy part. So why is it that so many organization realize they have a forecasting problem, yet are unable to do anything about it? [...] The post The difficult step in effecting forecasting process change (1 of 2) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized FVA M4 M5 Paul Goodwin Robert Fildes
forecasting The difficult step in effecting forecasting process change (2 of 2) By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Fri, 13 Mar 2020 20:10:00 +0000 Fildes and Goodwin (F&G) observed the subject (the regional subsidiary of a pharmaceutical company) was using a statistical forecasting system, but not fully trusting its output. Forecasters were making overrides to the system generated forecast to make it look like what they believed it should (e.g., following a life-cycle curve [...] The post The difficult step in effecting forecasting process change (2 of 2) appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized Robert Fildes; Paul Goodwin; FVA
forecasting Forecasting during chaos: notes from an IBF virtual town hall By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 26 Mar 2020 19:45:54 +0000 Forecasting During Chaos The Institute of Business Forecasting has produced an 80-minute virtual town hall on "Forecasting & Planning During the Chaos of a Global Pandemic." The on-demand video recording is available now and well worth a look. There is much solid practical guidance from an experienced panel: Eric Wilson, [...] The post Forecasting during chaos: notes from an IBF virtual town hall appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized Charlie Chase coronavirus IBF
forecasting Forecasting during chaos: predicting impact on demand and supply By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 11:39:38 +0000 Forecasting is a daunting task during normal conditions, and even more so during a disruption. But in times of greatest stress our smartest and most creative people stand out, and our true leaders emerge. You'll find these kinds of leaders among my colleagues at SAS -- smart and creative people [...] The post Forecasting during chaos: predicting impact on demand and supply appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized The whining puppy
forecasting Forecasting during denial: when management can't handle the truth By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Fri, 01 May 2020 13:11:16 +0000 In recent posts (March 26, April 21) we've looked at forecasting in the face of chaos and disruption. We've seen that traditional time series forecasting methods (used during "normal" times) can be creatively augmented with additional methods like clustering, similarity analysis, epidemiologic models, and simulation. While it is unreasonable to [...] The post Forecasting during denial: when management can't handle the truth appeared first on The Business Forecasting Deal. Full Article Uncategorized forecast value added FVA The whining puppy
forecasting IBM AI – Watson’s role must be expanded to data analysis and forecasting trends By www.financialexpress.com Published On :: 2020-05-09T04:45:00+05:30 ICMR, at present, is only using Watson for backend reporting, but it also needs to deploy it for data analysis and forecasting trends. Full Article Opinion
forecasting Forecasting the Energy Community: Open Call for the Inaugural Season of a Fantasy Energy League By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: 2018-12-07T12:23:42Z Fantasy sports and the energy industry might not have much in common on the surface, but I’ve always personally approached these two passions of mine in similar ways: obsessively reading the breaking news, following my favorite experts in the community on social media, and diving deep into the available statistics to create graphs and try to come up with hot takes. I think the fantasy sports model can be used to encourage an academic and educational exercise in the energy industry, so it struck me—I should establish the first fantasy league for the energy sector! Full Article Hydropower Storage Energy Efficiency Bioenergy Wind Power Opinion & Commentary Solar Geothermal
forecasting Weather forecasting drops up to 90% due to pandemic By news.sky.com Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 14:26:00 +0100 The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the quantity and quality of weather observations and forecasts, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Full Article
forecasting Forecasting urbanization By www.eurekalert.org Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 00:00:00 EDT A new global simulation model offers the first long-term look at how urbanization -- the growth of cities and towns--will unfold in the coming decades. The research team projects the total amount of urban areas on Earth can grow anywhere from 1.8 to 5.9-fold by 2100, building approximately 618,000 square miles. Full Article
forecasting Forecasting 2016: It’s complicated By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 07 Jan 2016 09:04:00 -0500 Keeping with tradition, we start the year with a compendium of forecasts for 2016 from our guest bloggers and ourselves. At the end of the year, we will assess how we did (for last year’s forecasting performance, click here). The prevailing sentiment about economic developments during 2016 is decidedly mixed. There are positive and negative views, sometimes from the same source. Here is a sampling: On the negative side, “emerging economies will continue to disappoint;” “ODA will be squeezed by refugee costs (and climate change financing commitments);” “geopolitical tensions will remain;” “the dollar will be stronger with a severe impact on emerging economies;” and a range of idiosyncratic, political risks: weak governance and terrorist threats in Kenya; declining investor confidence and rising social strife in South Africa; corruption scandals in Brazil; and low oil prices coupled with domestic and geopolitical tensions in Russia. On the positive side, “oil prices will remain low;” “the Islamic State will be defeated;” “the effect of monetary policy normalization will be very limited;” “food prices will remain low or fall, helping reduce global hunger;” “African countries will improve cereal yields;” “OECD countries will accept a record number of refugees and migrants;” “oil exporters will reform their economies;” and “peace agreements to end the wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen will be signed.” An emerging theme is whether the disappointments in developing country growth in 2015 stem from idiosyncratic factors in specific countries—especially the BRICS, Turkey, and Indonesia—or whether those idiosyncratic factors, often associated with domestic political developments, are symptomatic of a broader issue of a slowing down of global convergence. Indeed, this theme of whether convergence remains a strong force that will continue to dominate developing country prospects, or a weak force that is all too easily offset by other factors, will likely remain one of the critical unknowns of 2016. In summary, it is fair to say that with views as diverse as those we received, the picture for 2016 is complicated to say the least. There is no analytical clarity in the global economy, despite forecasts from most major organizations (e.g., the IMF) that growth will be better in 2016 than in 2015 in every region except perhaps East Asia (although Asia will still probably record higher growth than anywhere else). The fears generated by a slowing of one of the main engines of the global economy over the past decade, namely China, are palpable. The big story of 2016 is perhaps that it is an emerging economy, China, which is the major source of uncertainty over this year’s global outlook. While prospects for the major advanced economies—the USA, Europe, and Japan—are relatively stable, it is the developing world where there is the least clarity over the short- term outlook. Certainly, the volatility in global stock markets in the first days of the year suggests that volatility, risk aversion, and differences of views over short-term developments are all high as 2016 begins. But there is at least one bright note. Almost certainly, prospects will improve for almost 200 million people who were living in countries that last year remained outside the scope of a normally functioning global economy. In Myanmar, Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, economic conditions will improve as a result of recent political developments. In addition, in 2016 there will probably be at least 100 million more people joining the global middle class—those living in households with incomes of $10-100 a day (2005 PPP). Good news for them but a reminder that the task of moving towards a world with sustainable consumption and production patterns remains huge. There was one consensus thread among our bloggers—all the Europeans appear consumed by the Euro 2016 soccer event (“Spain, France, or Germany will win”), while only one blogger dared to comment on the Olympics (that Brazil would do twice as well as in 2012). It seems that sports will be less complicated than economics in 2016. Authors Shanta DevarajanWolfgang FenglerHomi Kharas Full Article
forecasting Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Thu, 01 Nov 2012 17:22:00 -0400 Abstract Most pollsters base their election projections off questions of voter intentions, which ask “If the election were held today, who would you vote for?” By contrast, we probe the value of questions probing voters’ expectations, which typically ask: “Regardless of who you plan to vote for, who do you think will win the upcoming election?” We demonstrate that polls of voter expectations consistently yield more accurate forecasts than polls of voter intentions. A small-scale structural model reveals that this is because we are polling from a broader information set, and voters respond as if they had polled twenty of their friends. This model also provides a rational interpretation for why respondents’ forecasts are correlated with their expectations. We also show that we can use expectations polls to extract accurate election forecasts even from extremely skewed samples. I. Introduction Since the advent of scientific polling in the 1930s, political pollsters have asked people whom they intend to vote for; occasionally, they have also asked who they think will win. Our task in this paper is long overdue: we ask which of these questions yields more accurate forecasts. That is, we evaluate the predictive power of the questions probing voters’ intentions with questions probing their expectations. Judging by the attention paid by pollsters, the press, and campaigns, the conventional wisdom appears to be that polls of voters’ intentions are more accurate than polls of their expectations. Yet there are good reasons to believe that asking about expectations yields more greater insight. Survey respondents may possess much more information about the upcoming political race than that probed by the voting intention question. At a minimum, they know their own current voting intention, so the information set feeding into their expectations will be at least as rich as that captured by the voting intention question. Beyond this, they may also have information about the current voting intentions—both the preferred candidate and probability of voting—of their friends and family. So too, they have some sense of the likelihood that today’s expressed intention will be changed before it ultimately becomes an election-day vote. Our research is motivated by idea that the richer information embedded in these expectations data may yield more accurate forecasts. We find robust evidence that polls probing voters’ expectations yield more accurate predictions of election outcomes than the usual questions asking about who they intend to vote for. By comparing the performance of these two questions only when they are asked of the exact same people in exactly the same survey, we effectively difference out the influence of all other factors. Our primary dataset consists of all the state-level electoral presidential college races from 1952 to 2008, where both the intention and expectation question are asked. In the 77 cases in which the intention and expectation question predict different candidates, the expectation question picks the winner 60 times, while the intention question only picked the winner 17 times. That is, 78% of the time that these two approaches disagree, the expectation data was correct. We can also assess the relative accuracy of the two methods by assessing the extent to which each can be informative in forecasting the final vote share; we find that relying on voters’ expectations rather than their intentions yield substantial and statistically significant increases in forecasting accuracy. An optimally-weighted average puts over 90% weight on the expectations-based forecasts. Once one knows the results of a poll of voters expectations, there is very little additional information left in the usual polls of voting intentions. Our findings remain robust to correcting for an array of known biases in voter intentions data. The better performance of forecasts based on asking voters about their expectations rather than their intentions, varies somewhat, depending on the specific context. The expectations question performs particularly well when: voters are embedded in heterogeneous (and thus, informative) social networks; when they don’t rely too much on common information; when small samples are involved (when the extra information elicited by asking about intentions counters the large sampling error in polls of intentions); and at a point in the electoral cycle when voters are sufficiently engaged as to know what their friends and family are thinking. Our findings also speak to several existing strands of research within election forecasting. A literature has emerged documenting that prediction markets tend to yield more accurate forecasts than polls (Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004; Berg, Nelson and Rietz, 2008). More recently, Rothschild (2009) has updated these findings in light of the 2008 Presidential and Senate races, showing that forecasts based on prediction markets yielded systematically more accurate forecasts of the likelihood of Obama winning each state than did the forecasts based on aggregated intention polls compiled by Nate Silver for the website FiveThirtyEight.com. One hypothesis for this superior performance is that because prediction markets ask traders to bet on outcomes, they effectively ask a different question, eliciting the expectations rather than intentions of participants. If correct, this suggests that much of the accuracy of prediction markets could be obtained simply by polling voters on their expectations, rather than intentions. These results also speak to the possibility of producing useful forecasts from non-representative samples (Robinson, 1937), an issue of renewed significance in the era of expensive-to-reach cellphones and cheap online survey panels. Surveys of voting intentions depend critically on being able to poll representative cross-sections of the electorate. By contrast, we find that surveys of voter expectations can still be quite accurate, even when drawn from non-representative samples. The logic of this claim comes from the difference between asking about expectations, which may not systematically differ across demographic groups, and asking about intentions, which clearly do. Again, the connection to prediction markets is useful, as Berg and Rietz (2006) show that prediction markets have yielded accurate forecasts, despite drawing from an unrepresentative pool of overwhelmingly white, male, highly educated, high income, self-selected traders. While questions probing voters’ expectations have been virtually ignored by political forecasters, they have received some interest from psychologists. In particular, Granberg and Brent (1983) document wishful thinking, in which people’s expectation about the likely outcome is positively correlated with what they want to happen. Thus, people who intend to vote Republican are also more likely to predict a Republican victory. This same correlation is also consistent with voters preferring the candidate they think will win, as in bandwagon effects, or gaining utility from being optimistic. We re-interpret this correlation through a rational lens, in which the respondents know their own voting intention with certainty and have knowledge about the voting intentions of their friends and family. Our alternative approach to political forecasting also provides a new narrative of the ebb and flow of campaigns, which should inform ongoing political science research about which events really matter. For instance, through the 2004 campaign, polls of voter intentions suggested a volatile electorate as George W. Bush and John Kerry swapped the lead several times. By contrast, polls of voters’ expectations consistently showed the Bush was expected to win re-election. Likewise in 2008, despite volatility in the polls of voters’ intentions, Obama was expected to win in all of the last 17 expectations polls taken over the final months of the campaign. And in the 2012 Republican primary, polls of voters intentions at different points showed Mitt Romney trailing Donald Trump, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich and then Rick Santorum, while polls of expectations showed him consistently as the likely winner. We believe that our findings provide tantalizing hints that similar methods could be useful in other forecasting domains. Market researchers ask variants of the voter intention question in an array of contexts, asking questions that elicit your preference for one product, over another. Likewise, indices of consumer confidence are partly based on the stated purchasing intentions of consumers, rather than their expectations about the purchase conditions for their community. The same insight that motivated our study—that people also have information on the plans of others—is also likely relevant in these other contexts. Thus, it seems plausible that survey research in many other domains may also benefit from paying greater attention to people’s expectations than to their intentions. The rest of this paper proceeds as follows, In Section II, we describe our first cut of the data, illustrating the relative success of the two approaches to predicting the winner of elections. In Sections III and IV, we focus on evaluating their respective forecasts of the two-party vote share. Initially, in Section III we provide what we call naïve forecasts, which follow current practice by major pollsters; in Section IV we product statistically efficient forecasts, taking account of the insights of sophisticated modern political scientists. Section V provides out-of-sample forecasts based on the 2008 election. Section VI extends the assessment to a secondary data source which required substantial archival research to compile. In Section VII, we provide a small structural model which helps explain the higher degree of accuracy obtained from surveys of voter expectations. Section VIII characterizes the type of information that is reflected in voters’ expectation, arguing that it is largely idiosyncratic, rather than the sort of common information that might come from the mass media. Section IX assesses why it is that people’s expectations are correlated with their intentions. Section VI uses this model to show how we can obtain surprisingly accurate expectation-based forecasts with non-representative samples. We then conclude. To be clear about the structure of the argument: In the first part of the paper (through section IV) we simply present two alternative forecasting technologies and evaluate them, showing that expectations-based forecasts outperform those based on traditional intentions-based polls. We present these data without taking a strong position on why. But then in later sections we turn to trying to assess what explains this better performance. Because this assessment is model-based, our explanations are necessarily based on auxiliary assumptions (which we spell out). Right now, we begin with our simplest and most transparent comparison of the forecasting ability of our two competing approaches. Download the full paper » (PDF) Downloads Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations Authors David RothschildJustin Wolfers Publication: NBER Image Source: © Joe Skipper / Reuters Full Article
forecasting Q & A on Forecasting Based on Voter Expectations By webfeeds.brookings.edu Published On :: Fri, 02 Nov 2012 11:33:00 -0400 Editor's Note: A new academic study by David Rothschild and Justin Wolfers concludes that poll questions about expectations—which ask people whom they think will win—have historically been better guides to the outcome of presidential elections than traditional questions about people’s preferences. David Leonhardt of The New York Times conducted an interview with Wolfers by e-mail, focusing on the implications of the study for current presidential polls. David Leonhardt:In the article, I discussed only briefly the expectations polls about the 2012 race, and some of the Twitter feedback was eager for more. By my count, there have been five recent major polls asking people whom they expect to win — by ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, Politico/George Washington University, New York Times/CBS News, and the University of Connecticut. There is also sixth from Rand asking people the percentage chances they place on each candidate winning. How consistent are the polls? Justin Wolfers: There’s a striking consistency in how people are responding to these polls. The most recent data are from the Gallup poll conducted Oct. 27-28, and they found 54 percent of adults expect Obama to win, versus 34 percent for Romney. Around the same time (Oct. 25-28), there was a comparable New York Times/CBS poll in which 51 percent of likely voters expect Obama to win, versus 34 percent for Romney. But these results aren’t just stable across pollsters, they’ve also been quite stable over the past few weeks, even as the race appeared to tighten for a while. Politico and George Washington University ran a poll of likely voters on Oct. 22-25, finding 54 percent expect Obama to win, versus 36 percent for Romney. The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant poll of likely voters got a somewhat higher share not venturing an answer, with 47 percent expecting Obama to win versus 33 percent for Romney. Finally, the ABC/Washington Post poll of registered voters run Oct. 10-13 found 56 percent expect Obama to win, compared to 35 percent for Romney. I’m rather surprised by the similarities here – across time, across pollsters, across how they word the question, and across different survey populations (likely voters, registered voters, or adults) – but I suspect that is part of the nature of the question. You just don’t see the noise here that you see in the barrage of polls of voter intentions, which are extremely sensitive to all of these factors. I always throw out the folks who don’t have an opinion, and count the proportions as a share of only those who have an opinion. By this measure, the proportion who expect Obama to win is: 61 percent (Gallup), 60 percent (The New York Times), 60 percent (Politico), 59 percent (Hartford Courant), 62 percent (ABC). The corresponding proportions who expect Romney to win are: 39 percent, 40 percent, 40 percent, 41 percent and 38 percent. Taking an average across all these polls: 60.3 percent expect Obama to win. Or if you prefer that I focus only on the freshest two polls, 60.7 percent expect him to win. DL: The results do seem have tightened somewhat since the first debate, which Romney was widely seen to have won, right? Do the patterns — or lack of patterns — in the numbers help solve the issue of what most people are thinking of when they answer the expectation question: Private information (their friends’ voting plans, yard signs in their neighborhood, etc.) or public information (media coverage, speeches, etc.)? JW: The results of the polls of voter intentions seem to have tightened a bit since the first debate. There’s an interesting school of thought in political science that basically says: voters are pretty predictable. But they don’t think too hard about how they’re going to vote until right before the election. So what happens is that public opinion through time just converges to where it “should” be. And viewed through this lens, the first debate was just an opportunity for people who really should always have been in Romney’s camp to figure out that they’re in Romney’s camp. So why did the expectations polls move less sharply than intentions polls? One possibility is that your expectations are explicitly forward-looking, and perhaps people saw the race tightening as they saw that some of the support for Obama was a bit soft. Let me put this another way: There are two problems with how we usually ask folks how they plan to vote. First, the question captures the state of public opinion today, while the expectations question effectively asks you where you think public opinion is going. And second, polls typically demand a yes or no answer, when the reality may be that we know that our support is pretty weak, and it may change, or we aren’t even sure whether we’ll turn up to the polls. The virtue of asking about expectations is that you can think about each of your friends, and think not just about who they’re supporting today, but also whether they may change their minds in the future. I worry that it sounds a bit like I haven’t answered your question, but that’s because I don’t have a super-sharp answer. If I had to summarize, it would be: expectations questions allow you to think about how the dynamics of the race may change, and so they are less sensitive to that change when it happens. DL: Based on your research and the current polls, what does the expectations question suggest is the most likely outcome on Tuesday? JW: If a majority expects Obama to win, then right there, it says that I’m forecasting an Obama victory. But by how much? Here’s where it gets tricky. The fact that 60 percent of people think that Obama is going to win doesn’t mean that he’s going to win 60 percent of the votes. And it doesn’t mean that he’s a 60 percent chance to win. Rather, it simply says that given the information they have, 60 percent of people believe that Obama is going to win. Can we use this to say anything about his likely winning margin? Yes. I’ll spare you the details of the calculation, but it says that if 60.3 percent of people expect Obama to beat Romney, then we can forecast that he’ll win about 52.5 percent of the two-party vote. That would be a solid win, though not as impressive as his seven-point win in 2008. The proportion who expect Obama to win right now looks awfully similar to the proportion who expected George W. Bush to win in a Gallup Poll at a similar point in 2004. Ultimately Bush won 51.2 percent of the two-party vote. Right now, Nate Silver is predicting that Obama will win 50.5 percent of the popular vote, and Romney 48.6 percent. As a share of the two-party vote, this says he’s forecasting Obama to win 51 percent of the vote. Now Silver’s approach aggregates responses from hundreds of thousands of survey respondents, while I have far fewer, so his estimate still deserves a lot of respect. I don’t want to overstate the confidence with which I’m stating my forecast. So let me put it this way: My approach says that it’s likely that Obama will outperform the forecasts of poll-based analysts like Silver. DL: We’ll find out soon enough. Thanks. Authors Justin Wolfers Publication: The New York Times Image Source: © Scott Miller / Reuters Full Article
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