Going for Growth 2015: Key findings for Brazil

Achieving strong growth in the global economy remains elusive, with only a modest recovery in advanced economies and slower activity in emerging markets, according to the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook.

Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) GDP will shrink by between 0.9% and 1% in 2016, according to the latest estimates, the second consecutive year of negative growth and a rate of contraction the region has not seen since the early 1980s. According to the Latin American Economic Outlook 2017, the region should recover in 2017, but with modest GDP growth of between 1.5% and 2%, below expected growth in advanced economies.

Brazil is emerging from its long recession and is headed for solid growth in 2018 and 2019 as recent structural reforms start to bear fruit. Sustaining this recovery, unleashing Brazil’s full economic potential and spreading the benefits fairly will require additional efforts to rein in public spending, increase trade and investment, and further focus social spending on those most in need, according to a new OECD report.

Can both less income inequality and more growth be achieved? A recent OECD study sheds new light on the link between policies that boost growth and the distribution of income.

Public debt in the OECD area passed annual GDP in 2011 and is still rising. This paper was prepared for the Reserve Bank of India Second International Research Conference 2012: “Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt and Financial Stability: The New Trilemma”, 1-2 February, 2012 in Mumbai, India

Korea has weathered the shocks triggered by the global recession and its economy is recovering more quickly and vigorously than most other OECD countries.

Indonesia has improved its macro-economic and structural policies over the last 15 years. Its economy, with strong and stable growth rates of 5–6.6%, is catching up with other countries in the region and allowing Indonesia to focus on its development agenda.

The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt to GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower economic performance in advanced and emerging economies alike.

A return to growth is essential to leave the crisis behind. But the path to growth will be difficult for governments if they do not rebuild trust with their citizens.

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise.

The challenge for fiscal policy in Slovakia is to achieve fiscal consolidation in a way which supports the fragile recovery and protects spending on areas which are important for re-embarking on a trajectory of high trend growth and underpinning a catch-up in living standards.

Brazil’s economic growth has been supported in recent years by important government investment and social programmes that mobilise resources across the country. These programmes could help Brazil to meet its goals of sustaining economic growth and fostering social development, while reducing regional disparities.

Austerity programmes to restore order to public finances can add to the woes of already struggling economies, leading to more job losses and social hardship. But there are ways for governments to put their fiscal houses in order, while supporting growth and reducing income inequality at the same time.

Cities can generate growth and jobs while becoming greener – this is the message of the OECD’s new Green Growth in Cities report. Drawing on case studies of Paris, Chicago, Kitakyushu and Stockholm, the report identifies green policies that can respond to urban growth priorities and suggests how to implement and finance them.

Well-functioning judicial systems play a crucial role in determining economic performance – notably by guaranteeing the security of property rights and the enforcement of contracts – but not all countries’ judiciaries operate at the same level of efficiency.

This study proposes a structured approach to selecting instruments of fiscal consolidation that are consistent with growth, equity and global-rebalancing objectives, which is then illustrated with a particular application.

Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial fiscal consolidation needs. The choices made about which spending areas to curtail and which taxes to hike will have implications for near-term activity and long-term growth as well as for equity and the current account.

This report assesses progress in the implementation of regulatory policy within the MENA region and highlights good practices from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, the Palestinian Authority and Tunisia.

Using panel data for OECD countries, this study investigates the extent to which changes in government spending on education, health and other areas influence long-term growth.

The policy forum officially launches the conceptual framework to the public and offers an opportunity for participants to discuss the key issues for emerging Asia: housing, buildings and energy, land use and transport, water and waste management, green goods and services.

The Japan-OECD Policy Forum on Urban Development and Green Growth will address cities’ unique role in creating synergies between environmental and economic objectives to advance green growth. Asian cities in particular are at the centre of this challenge. This event is organised as a commemorative event for the 50th Anniversary of Japan's Accession to the OECD.

Korea has made significant progress towards decentralising the management of employment and training programmes, but can still do more to create stronger links with employers at the local level, according to a new OECD report.

While the outlook for many OECD countries remains subdued, Emerging Asia is set for healthy growth over the medium term. Annual GDP growth for the ASEAN -10, China and India is forecast to average 6.5% over 2015-19. Growth momentum remains robust in the 10 ASEAN countries, with economic growth averaging 5.6% over 2015-19.

Knowledge sharing is critical in fostering urban green growth. Cities in dynamic Asia urgently need to adopt and strengthen green growth models that take into account rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and motorisation.

The OECD’s Annual Meeting at Ministerial Level reinforced member governments’ support across a broad range of key OECD work.

This working paper explores avenues to improve public sector efficiency in Latvia, a catching-up and ageing economy where spending needs are large.

Governments should do more to improve the design and delivery of new laws, as even small efforts to fix regulatory shortcomings can have a tangible positive impact on economic activity and well-being, according to a new OECD report.

Recent reforms have made pension systems more financially sustainable and pensioners have higher living standards than ever before. But future generations are likely to find their pension entitlements much less generous than today’s and many may face a serious risk of pensioner poverty, according to a new OECD report.

TThe economic literature suggests that a revenue-neutral shift of tax revenues from income taxes to property taxes would increase GDP per capita in the medium term. This paper analyses for Ireland the consequences of such a shift in the tax mix.

This paper examines the potential contribution of RIA to better incorporating the inclusive growth perspective in regulatory decision-making.

Mayors from cities across the United States, Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America gathered in New York to launch a global campaign to address rising inequalities and foster inclusive growth in their cities, in their countries and worldwide.

Ministers and high-level representatives from 41 countries and the European Union committed today at the closure of the OECD’s 2016 Digital Economy Ministerial Meeting in Cancun, Mexico, to work together to preserve an open Internet, close digital divides, promote digital skills and generally do more to seize the potential of the digital economy.

To achieve a euro area fiscal stance that fosters the recovery, countries with fiscal space under the Stability and Growth Pact rules should use budgetary support to raise growth, and existing incentives and flexibility should be taken advantage of to pursue reforms of tax and spending policies.

The global economy remains in a low-growth trap. In our latest Interim Economic Outlook global GDP growth is set to remain flat around 3% in 2016 and improve modestly to 3.2% in 2017.

Mayors and local leaders from around the world launched today a plan of action to help tackle inequality, boost job creation and harness economic development.

The effect of the size and mix of public spending on growth and inequality

Using fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap

This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which raising public investment can sustainably lift growth without deteriorating public finances.

This paper reviews the key issues concerning the impact of public spending and taxation on long-run growth and inequality and takes stock of existing theoretical and empirical studies.

An estimated baseline convergence model capturing the long-term effect of human capital and physical investment on potential output for a panel of OECD countries is augmented with public investment and its components.

This paper provides evidence on the effects of the size and the composition of public spending on long-term growth and inequality.

For the last five years the global economy has been in a low-growth trap, with growth disappointingly low and stuck at around 3 per cent per year. Persistent growth shortfalls have weighed on future output expectations and thereby reduced current spending and potential output gains.

Malaysia has followed a comparatively equitable development path, largely eliminating absolute poverty and greatly reduced ethnic inequality.

Malaysia has followed a comparatively equitable development path, largely eliminating absolute poverty and greatly reduced ethnic inequality.

It is hardly surprising that rising inequality has translated into growing political disaffection, anti-market sentiment and disenchantment with globalisation. In such a context, we desperately need to take action to promote inclusive growth and restore public confidence in the power of policymakers to improve people’s lives.

Tax reforms are crucial to promoting inclusive growth in India.

This study provides critical observations on the state of key global equity markets as recent developments have put into question their efficiency and effectiveness in facilitating capital formation. It covers the top 26 initial public offering (IPO) producing nations, with a particular focus on stock markets in the United States.

This programme focuses on the pivotal role that corporate governance plays for ensuring that the financial sector can serve the needs of non-financial companies in terms of access to capital for innovation, value creation and growth.

The OECD’s Annual Meeting at Ministerial Level reinforced member governments’ support across a broad range of key OECD work.