Research Event

Event participants

Dr Constanze Stelzenmüller, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund
Chair: Xenia Wickett, Project Director, US; Acting Dean, The Academy, Chatham House

(ETH Zurich) Global warming has affected the entire planet's surface, except for one particular area of the ocean, which has bucked the trend. A research team comprising scientists from ETH Zurich and Princeton University has unravelled the causes of this conundrum.

This week David Price is in the presenter chair for the jolliest tech podcast of the year. David is joined by Miriam Harris, staff writer at Digital Arts, to talk about the design trends set to shape 2017. Then online editor at Techworld Scott Carey runs through the hottest tech gifts this Christmas, including games consoles, VR, Amazon gadgets and Star Wars merch (14:30). Finally, staff writer at PC Advisor Dom Preston makes his UKTW debut to chat about the latest Star Wars movie, Rogue One, which includes spoilers (29:00). This is the last UK Tech Weekly podcast of the year. Thank you for listening and we will be back in 2017 to chat about the hottest tech topics all over again.  

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This fact sheet uses U.S. and Mexican apprehensions data to trace the evolving trends in unaccompanied child and family migration from Central America through Mexico and to the United States, and discusses the push factors and pull factors responsible for the increase in flows seen in recent years, as well as the growing role of smuggling organizations.

This report analyzes the evolution of Chinese emigration from the 1970s, when market-oriented reforms began reducing barriers to movement beyond the country's borders, to the present day. High-skilled and high-value emigration is rising fast. Despite liberalized exit controls, low-skilled labor migration is stagnant as a result of complicated and expensive recruitment procedures.

How did the U.S. border enforcement picture go in the span of two years from the lowest levels of illegal immigration since 1971 to a spiraling border security and humanitarian crisis? This report draws on enforcement and other data as well as analysis of changing migration trends and policies to tell this story. The authors outline key elements for a new strategy that can succeed over the long term.

Kasia J. Lipska
Apr 1, 2017; 40:468-475
Emerging Science and Concepts for Management of Diabetes and Aging

Nearly 22 million immigrants—about half of the overall immigrant population—were naturalized U.S. citizens in fiscal year 2017. In the same year, more than 707,000 immigrants became U.S. citizens. Naturalized citizens tend to have higher incomes and educational attainment compared to other immigrants, as this data-rich article explores.

OBJECTIVE

To examine trends in uninsured rates between 2012 and 2016 among low-income adults aged <65 years and to determine whether the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), which expanded Medicaid, impacted insurance coverage in the Diabetes Belt, a region across 15 southern and eastern states in which residents have high rates of diabetes.

According to conventional wisdom, front-runners win presidential nominations. Democrats and Republicans who start the race for a presidential nomination with the largest amount of money and the best poll numbers are supposed to be the ones most likely to walk away with victory months later.

WASHINGTON — The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) today published the annual update to its data-rich article, Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States, offering readers a wealth of information that can help inform understanding about an issue that is the subject of much conversation.

London : King's Fund Institute, 1989.

Adityanand Guntuboyina, Donovan Lieu, Sabyasachi Chatterjee, Bodhisattva Sen.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 48, Number 1, 205--229.

Abstract:
We study trend filtering, a relatively recent method for univariate nonparametric regression. For a given integer $rgeq1$, the $r$th order trend filtering estimator is defined as the minimizer of the sum of squared errors when we constrain (or penalize) the sum of the absolute $r$th order discrete derivatives of the fitted function at the design points. For $r=1$, the estimator reduces to total variation regularization which has received much attention in the statistics and image processing literature. In this paper, we study the performance of the trend filtering estimator for every $rgeq1$, both in the constrained and penalized forms. Our main results show that in the strong sparsity setting when the underlying function is a (discrete) spline with few “knots,” the risk (under the global squared error loss) of the trend filtering estimator (with an appropriate choice of the tuning parameter) achieves the parametric $n^{-1}$-rate, up to a logarithmic (multiplicative) factor. Our results therefore provide support for the use of trend filtering, for every $rgeq1$, in the strong sparsity setting.

Veeranjaneyulu Sadhanala, Ryan J. Tibshirani.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 6, 3032--3068.

Abstract:
We study additive models built with trend filtering, that is, additive models whose components are each regularized by the (discrete) total variation of their $k$th (discrete) derivative, for a chosen integer $kgeq0$. This results in $k$th degree piecewise polynomial components, (e.g., $k=0$ gives piecewise constant components, $k=1$ gives piecewise linear, $k=2$ gives piecewise quadratic, etc.). Analogous to its advantages in the univariate case, additive trend filtering has favorable theoretical and computational properties, thanks in large part to the localized nature of the (discrete) total variation regularizer that it uses. On the theory side, we derive fast error rates for additive trend filtering estimates, and show these rates are minimax optimal when the underlying function is additive and has component functions whose derivatives are of bounded variation. We also show that these rates are unattainable by additive smoothing splines (and by additive models built from linear smoothers, in general). On the computational side, we use backfitting, to leverage fast univariate trend filtering solvers; we also describe a new backfitting algorithm whose iterations can be run in parallel, which (as far as we can tell) is the first of its kind. Lastly, we present a number of experiments to examine the empirical performance of trend filtering.

Cecilia Balocchi, Shane T. Jensen.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2235--2259.

Abstract:
Understanding the relationship between change in crime over time and the geography of urban areas is an important problem for urban planning. Accurate estimation of changing crime rates throughout a city would aid law enforcement as well as enable studies of the association between crime and the built environment. Bayesian modeling is a promising direction since areal data require principled sharing of information to address spatial autocorrelation between proximal neighborhoods. We develop several Bayesian approaches to spatial sharing of information between neighborhoods while modeling trends in crime counts over time. We apply our methodology to estimate changes in crime throughout Philadelphia over the 2006-15 period while also incorporating spatially-varying economic and demographic predictors. We find that the local shrinkage imposed by a conditional autoregressive model has substantial benefits in terms of out-of-sample predictive accuracy of crime. We also explore the possibility of spatial discontinuities between neighborhoods that could represent natural barriers or aspects of the built environment.

Laura Anderlucci, Angela Montanari, Cinzia Viroli.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 280--300.

Abstract:
In this paper, we retrace the recent history of statistics by analyzing all the papers published in five prestigious statistical journals since 1970, namely: The Annals of Statistics , Biometrika , Journal of the American Statistical Association , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B and Statistical Science . The aim is to construct a kind of “taxonomy” of the statistical papers by organizing and clustering them in main themes. In this sense being identified in a cluster means being important enough to be uncluttered in the vast and interconnected world of the statistical research. Since the main statistical research topics naturally born, evolve or die during time, we will also develop a dynamic clustering strategy, where a group in a time period is allowed to migrate or to merge into different groups in the following one. Results show that statistics is a very dynamic and evolving science, stimulated by the rise of new research questions and types of data.

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BIS Bulletin No 8, April 2020. Information on local labour markets and Google searches can be used to construct a measure of the vulnerability of employment in different regions of the United States to the Covid-19 shock. Regional exposure to Covid-19 varies significantly, ranging from a low of 2% to a high of 98% of total local employment. We test for the usefulness of the Covid-19 exposure measure by showing that areas with higher exposure report more Google search queries related to the pandemic and unemployment benefits.

Information technology, health care, and consumer discretionary stocks that outperformed in the last decade have done well in the first four months of 2020.

A B.C. couple who shaved their eyebrows off in the spirit of forcing themselves to stay at home has tackled another isolation challenge — home haircuts. 

Information technology, health care, and consumer discretionary stocks that outperformed in the last decade have done well in the first four months of 2020.

Amid public concerns about school safety fueled by high-profile school shootings, new federal data show reports of student fights, bullying, and other forms of victimization have continued a decades-long decline.

Against the backdrop of black swan events, broken politics, and the increasing priority of initiative, here is a recap of relevant trends and judo instructions for impact investors and "edupreneurs" interested in leveraging some of those trends.

Maker-spaces, adaptive learning, and wearable technologies are among the ed-tech trends to keep an eye on in the next few years, a new report says.

UEFA's technical team of experienced trainers will look at the trends and talking points at UEFA EURO 2012 from a coaching point of view, helping to produce a report on the tournament.

Preventive asthma medications (PAMs) are a primary management strategy to control asthma morbidity. Little is known about changes over time in prevalence of PAM use among children and adolescents in the United States.

Our analysis demonstrates an increase in use of PAMs among children and adolescents with current asthma in the United States from 1988–1994 to 2005–2008, but racial and ethnic disparities in use of PAMs persist. (Read the full article)

In the United States, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional injury death among children (1–19), accounting for >1000 deaths per year. Total lifetime costs in 2000 were estimated to be $2.6 billion for children aged 0 to 14.

National trends in pediatric drowning hospitalizations by age and gender have not been reported. This study provides benchmarks that can be used for state and regional comparisons and monitoring of injury prevention efforts. (Read the full article)

Recent studies report that overall computed tomography utilization in the emergency department has continued to rise. Increased computed tomography use is concerning because of the association with radiation exposure and the potential risk of radiation-induced malignancy, which is highest in children.

Our data showed no overall increase in computed tomography utilization through 2010. In areas where alternative non–radiation-based modalities were options, there were decreased trends in computed tomography use and increased use of potential alternative non–radiation-based modalities. (Read the full article)

The hypothesis that maternal prenatal folic acid lowers risk for childhood malignancy in offspring is supported by experimental and epidemiologic evidence, including 2 Canadian ecologic studies that showed inverse associations for some cancer types in the very young.

Examining Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program data, a decrease in the incidence of some childhood cancers (Wilms tumor, primitive neuroectodermal tumors) was observed in those <5 years after mandatory US folic acid fortification, with stronger effects detected in infants. (Read the full article)

Although obesity is correlated with levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, there is little evidence if the increases in obesity over the last 40 years have resulted in increased blood pressure levels.

Despite increases in obesity in Bogalusa, Louisiana between 1974 and 1993, there was no increase in systolic or diastolic blood pressure levels. It should not be assumed that trends in high blood pressure have paralleled those for obesity. (Read the full article)

A wide variety of prescription drugs are prescribed to US children. Although one of the steps in assessing the risk/benefit of therapies in the pediatric population is to understand how they are used, pediatric drug utilization is not well characterized.

By using large prescription databases, this study examines the frequency and patterns of national outpatient drug utilization (acute and chronic medications) in US infants, children, and adolescents for 2002 through 2010. (Read the full article)

Emphasis on preventing central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) in US health care facilities and prophylactic antifungal medication use in neonates may impact incidence of Candida spp. CLABSIs. However, data on trends in incidence of neonatal Candida spp. CLABSIs are lacking.

Data from a large sample of US NICUs was analyzed to assess trends in incidence over time. This analysis provides a description of the epidemiology of Candida spp. CLABSIs in a national health care-associated infections surveillance system. (Read the full article)

Overall antibiotic prescribing rates for children declined throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. These declines were concurrent with changes in practice related to acute otitis media, the most common reason for antibiotic treatment in young children.

The downward trend in antibiotic-dispensing rates to young children in 16 Massachusetts communities ended by 2004–2005 and remained stable thereafter. This trend was driven by a declining otitis media diagnosis rate. Antibiotic treatment of diagnosed otitis media remained constant. (Read the full article)

Various studies have documented marked racial/ethnic disparities in children’s receipt of dental services at single time points or brief periods.

This study reveals significant improvements in children’s receipt of dental care overall, as well as a dramatic narrowing of African American/white disparities in children’s receipt of dental services over the last 40 years in the United States. (Read the full article)

Although the impact of changes in the economy on child physical abuse rates is not well understood, there is concern that increased numbers of children may have been victims of physical abuse as a result of the recent economic recession.

Results of this study demonstrate that the rate of admissions for physical abuse to pediatric hospitals has increased during the past 10 years and suggest an association between that increase and the housing mortgage crisis. (Read the full article)

Although the natural course of bilirubin levels has been extensively studied in general neonatal populations, there is a paucity of data regarding bilirubin trends in neonates before the development of significant hyperbilirubinemia.

This study provides data on the natural course of transcutaneous bilirubin before the development of significant hyperbilirubinemia, and on the effect of different demographic and perinatal risk factors on the rate of bilirubin increase in neonates with borderline bilirubin values. (Read the full article)

Findings from 3 studies suggest that the diagnosis of venous thromboembolism in hospitalized US children has increased in recent years.

This study provides additional evidence of an increasing trend in the rate of venous thromboembolism-associated hospitalization in US children, as well as a concurrent increase in the prevalence of venous catheter procedures. (Read the full article)

Adolescent physical fighting is an important public health concern with known social origins. However, existing international studies of adolescent fighting provide little evidence about its prevalence, trends over time, or possible socioeconomic determinants.

We studied frequent physical fighting among 494 874 adolescents in 30 countries over an 8-year period. Physical fighting declined in most countries. National measures of absolute wealth but not socioeconomic inequalities related to risk of frequent physical fighting. (Read the full article)

Antimicrobials are a medication class frequently implicated in pediatric adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) is long recognized as a contributor to the burden of these undesired and unpredictable events.

TMP-SMX ADRs increased from 2000 to 2009, with the majority of children taking the antibiotic for skin and soft tissue infections. The significant increase in TMP-SMX prescribing for these infections may result in a continued increase of associated ADRs. (Read the full article)

Although survival of children born with Down syndrome has improved, unexplained racial and ethnic disparities in survival persist in the United States.

This study used population-based data from 10 birth defects monitoring programs in the United States to examine survival trends among children born with Down syndrome and to evaluate the changing influence of survival predictors over the life course. (Read the full article)

Peer victimization predicts numerous health risks. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB)-identified youth report greater peer victimization than do heterosexual-identified youth. No longitudinal studies have been conducted on developmental trends of peer victimization and emotional distress among LGB and heterosexual youth.

We provide the first longitudinal evidence on developmental trends of peer victimization and emotional distress for LGB- and heterosexual-identified youth. The findings suggest peer victimization of LGB-identified youth decreases in absolute, but not necessarily relative, terms and contributes to later emotional distress disparities. (Read the full article)

Among youth with asthma, tobacco smoke exposure causes increased asthma morbidity. Little is known about changes over time in tobacco smoke exposure among youth with asthma in a national sample.

Our analysis reveals a decrease in environmental tobacco smoke exposure among children and adolescents with current asthma in the United States from 1988–1994 to 2005–2010, but a majority of youth with asthma remain exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. (Read the full article)

Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) are a common pediatric condition often requiring inpatient management. Several studies describe recent increases in hospitalizations due to SSTIs.

In addition to rising hospitalizations, analysis of pediatric SSTI resource utilization trends revealed a twofold increase in incisions and drainages over a 13-year period. A growing number of incisions and drainages were performed in younger children. (Read the full article)