Impact of the US Election on Global Climate Politics 25 November 2020 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 16 November 2020 Online

Panellists discuss how Joe Biden’s victory will impact international efforts to tackle climate change. Will climate finally become a common area for global cooperation?

Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump is already having a positive impact on international efforts to tackle climate change. Leaders from across the world, including the UK, Canada, Australia and Fiji, have used their first messages to the President-elect to draw attention to the climate crisis.

Biden has promised to re-join the global community in its commitment to the Paris Agreement – but this could be the easy part. More difficult will be whether and how Biden is able to deliver his ambitious climate plan, and how effectively he is able to integrate climate change into foreign policy efforts and national security strategies.

Global climate action has also moved forward in the last four years. The European Union recently pledged to become climate neutral by 2050, and China, Japan and South Korea have committed to achieving carbon neutral economies.

How will the US re-enter this global landscape of distributed leadership and what difficulties does it face? Will the US be willing to work within a competitive partnership with the EU and China? How will Biden’s win change the dynamic of COP26 next year? 

From local to global: A roadmap for US climate action 14 April 2021 — 6:30PM TO 8:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 28 March 2021 Online

Ahead of Biden’s Earth Day Summit, panellists discuss a range of climate issues, from city-level climate management to the international security implications of climate deals.

On their first day in office, the Biden-Harris administration sent a strong message to Americans and allies by rejoining the Paris Agreement. Experienced climate and environmental leaders were appointed to senior leadership roles as part of a ‘whole of government approach’ to climate action.

Although decisive action is welcomed by many Americans and international partners, the divided domestic perspectives on climate and a changed international landscape pose significant challenges.

Ahead of the Earth Day Summit on April 22, an event hosted by Joe Biden to mark America’s formal return to global climate talks, panellists discuss a range of climate issues, from city-level climate management to the international security implications of climate deals.

• How will post-COVID domestic priorities and policy influence the international approach of the US to climate action?
• How will US policy, both foreign and domestic, need to respond to the security and geopolitical elements posed by climate change?
• What actions are needed during the upcoming Earth Day Summit for the US to establish credibility as a climate leader?
• What shape are key debates taking on US-China climate relations ahead of COP 26, and how might climate issues be approached in relation to wider geopolitical tensions?

Giovanni Catino and Alberto Roncoroni
Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 152 (), 5339-5354.
Abstract, references and article information

Simão Correia
Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 152 (), 5117-5136.
Abstract, references and article information

Proteins in the α-macroglobulin (αM) superfamily use thiol esters to form covalent conjugation products upon their proteolytic activation. αM protease inhibitors use theirs to conjugate proteases and preferentially react with primary amines (e.g. on lysine side chains), whereas those of αM complement components C3 and C4B have an increased hydroxyl reactivity that is conveyed by a conserved histidine residue and allows conjugation to cell surface glycans. Human α2-macroglobulin–like protein 1 (A2ML1) is a monomeric protease inhibitor but has the hydroxyl reactivity–conveying histidine residue. Here, we have investigated the role of hydroxyl reactivity in a protease inhibitor by comparing recombinant WT A2ML1 and the A2ML1 H1084N mutant in which this histidine is removed. Both of A2ML1s' thiol esters were reactive toward the amine substrate glycine, but only WT A2ML1 reacted with the hydroxyl substrate glycerol, demonstrating that His-1084 increases the hydroxyl reactivity of A2ML1's thiol ester. Although both A2ML1s conjugated and inhibited thermolysin, His-1084 was required for the conjugation and inhibition of acetylated thermolysin, which lacks primary amines. Using MS, we identified an ester bond formed between a thermolysin serine residue and the A2ML1 thiol ester. These results demonstrate that a histidine-enhanced hydroxyl reactivity can contribute to protease inhibition by an αM protein. His-1084 did not improve A2ML1's protease inhibition at pH 5, indicating that A2ML1's hydroxyl reactivity is not an adaption to its acidic epidermal environment.

Systemic antibody light chains (AL) amyloidosis is characterized by deposition of amyloid fibrils derived from a particular antibody light chain. Cardiac involvement is a major risk factor for mortality. Using MAS solid-state NMR, we studied the fibril structure of a recombinant light chain fragment corresponding to the fibril protein from patient FOR005, together with fibrils formed by protein sequence variants that are derived from the closest germline (GL) sequence. Both analyzed fibril structures were seeded with ex-vivo amyloid fibrils purified from the explanted heart of this patient. We find that residues 11-42 and 69-102 adopt β-sheet conformation in patient protein fibrils. We identify arginine-49 as a key residue that forms a salt bridge to aspartate-25 in the patient protein fibril structure. In the germline sequence, this residue is replaced by a glycine. Fibrils from the GL protein and from the patient protein harboring the single point mutation R49G can be both heterologously seeded using patient ex-vivo fibrils. Seeded R49G fibrils show an increased heterogeneity in the C-terminal residues 80-102, which is reflected by the disappearance of all resonances of these residues. By contrast, residues 11-42 and 69-77, which are visible in the MAS solid-state NMR spectra, show 13Cα chemical shifts that are highly like patient fibrils. The mutation R49G thus induces a conformational heterogeneity at the C terminus in the fibril state, whereas the overall fibril topology is retained. These findings imply that patient mutations in FOR005 can stabilize the fibril structure.

Africa’s strategic priorities and global role 27 January 2023 — 1:00PM TO 2:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 18 January 2023 Chatham House and Online

At this hybrid event, HE John Dramani Mahama, former president of the Republic of Ghana, will discuss his ideas on the key economic and governance reforms required for economic stability and prosperity across Africa.

Ghana recently became the fourth country, after Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia, to seek debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework in January 2023 – reflecting the culmination of a series of internal and external shocks affecting the wider region, including extreme weather events, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Prospects for economic recovery and growth, nevertheless, remain positive in many parts of the continent, with the African Development Bank (AfDB), for example, reforecasting economic growth of 5.5 per cent in East Africa in 2023. Coordinated reforms can help to deepen regional integration and promote long-term economic prosperity, particularly in light of Africa’s evolving regional economic governance structures, notably the fledgling African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) headquartered in Accra.

At this hybrid event, HE John Dramani Mahama, former president of the Republic of Ghana, will discuss his ideas on the key economic and governance reforms required for economic stability and prosperity across Africa. He will also discuss priorities for regional integration and Africa’s role and responsibilities in global economic governance.

Wenhe Zhu
Dec 29, 2020; 0:RA120.002353v1-mcp.RA120.002353
Research

Yi-Han Lin
Dec 1, 2020; 19:2030-2046
Research

Madison T Wright
Nov 18, 2020; 0:RA120.002168v1-mcp.RA120.002168
Research

Kinases are critical components of intracellular signaling pathways and have been extensively investigated with regard to their roles in cancer. p21-activated kinase-1 (PAK1) is a serine/threonine kinase that has been previously implicated in numerous biological processes, such as cell migration, cell cycle progression, cell motility, invasion, and angiogenesis, in glioma and other cancers. However, the signaling network linked to PAK1 is not fully defined. We previously reported a large-scale yeast genetic interaction screen using toxicity as a readout to identify candidate PAK1 genetic interactions. En masse transformation of the PAK1 gene into 4,653 homozygous diploid Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast deletion mutants identified ∼400 candidates that suppressed yeast toxicity. Here we selected 19 candidate PAK1 genetic interactions that had human orthologs and were expressed in glioma for further examination in mammalian cells, brain slice cultures, and orthotopic glioma models. RNAi and pharmacological inhibition of potential PAK1 interactors confirmed that DPP4, KIF11, mTOR, PKM2, SGPP1, TTK, and YWHAE regulate PAK1-induced cell migration and revealed the importance of genes related to the mitotic spindle, proteolysis, autophagy, and metabolism in PAK1-mediated glioma cell migration, drug resistance, and proliferation. AKT1 was further identified as a downstream mediator of the PAK1-TTK genetic interaction. Taken together, these data provide a global view of PAK1-mediated signal transduction pathways and point to potential new drug targets for glioma therapy.

Co-fractionation MS (CF-MS) is a technique with potential to characterize endogenous and unmanipulated protein complexes on an unprecedented scale. However this potential has been offset by a lack of guidelines for best-practice CF-MS data collection and analysis. To obtain such guidelines, this study thoroughly evaluates novel and published Saccharomyces cerevisiae CF-MS data sets using very high proteome coverage libraries of yeast gold standard complexes. A new method for identifying gold standard complexes in CF-MS data, Reference Complex Profiling, and the Extending 'Guilt-by-Association' by Degree (EGAD) R package are used for these evaluations, which are verified with concurrent analyses of published human data. By evaluating data collection designs, which involve fractionation of cell lysates, it is found that near-maximum recall of complexes can be achieved with fewer samples than published studies. Distributing sample collection across orthogonal fractionation methods, rather than a single high resolution data set, leads to particularly efficient recall. By evaluating 17 different similarity scoring metrics, which are central to CF-MS data analysis, it is found that two metrics rarely used in past CF-MS studies – Spearman and Kendall correlations – and the recently introduced Co-apex metric frequently maximize recall, whereas a popular metric—Euclidean distance—delivers poor recall. The common practice of integrating external genomic data into CF-MS data analysis is also evaluated, revealing that this practice may improve the precision and recall of known complexes but is generally unsuitable for predicting novel complexes in model organisms. If studying nonmodel organisms using orthologous genomic data, it is found that particular subsets of fractionation profiles (e.g. the lowest abundance quartile) should be excluded to minimize false discovery. These assessments are summarized in a series of universally applicable guidelines for precise, sensitive and efficient CF-MS studies of known complexes, and effective predictions of novel complexes for orthogonal experimental validation.

Sepsis-induced acute kidney injury (S-AKI) is the most common complication in hospitalized and critically ill patients, highlighted by a rapid decline of kidney function occurring a few hours or days after sepsis onset. Systemic inflammation elicited by microbial infections is believed to lead to kidney damage under immunocompromised conditions. However, although AKI has been recognized as a disease with long-term sequelae, partly because of the associated higher risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), the understanding of kidney pathophysiology at the molecular level and the global view of dynamic regulations in situ after S-AKI, including the transition to CKD, remains limited. Existing studies of S-AKI mainly focus on deriving sepsis biomarkers from body fluids. In the present study, we constructed a mid-severity septic murine model using cecal ligation and puncture (CLP), and examined the temporal changes to the kidney proteome and phosphoproteome at day 2 and day 7 after CLP surgery, corresponding to S-AKI and the transition to CKD, respectively, by employing an ultrafast and economical filter-based sample processing method combined with the label-free quantitation approach. Collectively, we identified 2,119 proteins and 2950 phosphosites through multi-proteomics analyses. Among them, we identified an array of highly promising candidate marker proteins indicative of disease onset and progression accompanied by immunoblot validations, and further denoted the pathways that are specifically responsive to S-AKI and its transition to CKD, which include regulation of cell metabolism regulation, oxidative stress, and energy consumption in the diseased kidneys. Our data can serve as an enriched resource for the identification of mechanisms and biomarkers for sepsis-induced kidney diseases.

As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab ® and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.

Thyroglobulin (Tg) is a secreted iodoglycoprotein serving as the precursor for T3 and T4 hormones. Many characterized Tg gene mutations produce secretion-defective variants resulting in congenital hypothyroidism (CH). Tg processing and secretion is controlled by extensive interactions with chaperone, trafficking, and degradation factors comprising the secretory proteostasis network. While dependencies on individual proteostasis network components are known, the integration of proteostasis pathways mediating Tg protein quality control and the molecular basis of mutant Tg misprocessing remain poorly understood. We employ a multiplexed quantitative affinity purification–mass spectrometry approach to define the Tg proteostasis interactome and changes between WT and several CH-variants. Mutant Tg processing is associated with common imbalances in proteostasis engagement including increased chaperoning, oxidative folding, and engagement by targeting factors for ER-associated degradation (ERAD). Furthermore, we reveal mutation-specific changes in engagement with N-glycosylation components, suggesting distinct requirements for one Tg variant on dual engagement of both oligosaccharyltransferase complex isoforms for degradation. Modulating dysregulated proteostasis components and pathways may serve as a therapeutic strategy to restore Tg secretion and thyroid hormone biosynthesis.

Giardia lamblia (G. lamblia) disease is a zoonosis with a-infection rate affecting the general population of the world. Despite the constant possibility of damage due to their own metabolism, G. lamblia have survived and evolved to adapt to various environments. However, research on energy-metabolism conversion in G. lamblia is limited. This study aimed to reveal the dynamic metabolism-conversion mechanism in G. lamblia under sugar starvation by detecting global lysine acetylation and 2-hydroxyisobutyrylation sites combined with quantitative proteome analyses. A total of 2999 acetylation sites on 956 proteins and 8877 2-hydroxyisobutyryl sites on 1546 proteins were quantified under sugar starvation. Integrated Kac and Khib data revealed that modified proteins were associated with arginine biosynthesis, glycolysis/gluconeogenesis, and alanine, aspartate, and glutamate metabolism. These findings suggested that lysine acetylation and 2-hydroxyisobutyrylation were ubiquitous and provided deep insight into the metabolism-conversion mechanism in G. lamblia under sugar starvation. Overall, these results can help understand the biology of G. lamblia infections and reveal the evolution rule from prokaryote to eukaryote.

China's Regions in an Era of Globalization Book sysadmin 14 May 2018

The rise of China has been shaped and driven by its engagement with the global economy. This engagement cannot be understood at the level of national policymaking alone, but requires analysis of the differences in participation in the global economy across China’s regions.

China is a continent-sized economy and society with substantial diversity across its different regions. This book traces the evolution of regional policy in China and its implications in a global context.

Detailed chapters examine the trajectory of what is now becoming known as the Greater Bay Area in southern China, the inland mega-city of Chongqing, and the role of China’s regions in the globally focused Belt and Road Initiative launched by the Chinese government in late 2013.

It will be of interest to practitioners and scholars engaging with contemporary China’s political economy and international relations.

This book is published as part of the Insights series.

Praise for China’s Regions in an Era of Globalization

About the author

Tim Summers works on the political economy and international relations of contemporary China. He is a Lecturer at the Centre for China Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a (non-resident) Senior Consulting Fellow on the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House. He was British consul general in Chongqing from 2004 to 2007.

This book is published in collaboration with Routledge.

Purchase

• Worldwide (via Routledge)
• Students (via Browns Books)

Dance of the Trillions: Developing Countries and Global Finance Book sysadmin 6 July 2018

David Lubin tells the story of what makes money flow from high-income countries to lower-income ones; what makes it flow out again; and how developing countries have sought protection against the volatility of international capital flows.

Selected by the Financial Times as one of the best economics books of 2018, Dance of the Trillions traces an arc from the 1970s, when developing countries first gained access to international financial markets, to the present day.

Underlying this story is a discussion of how the relationship between developing countries and global finance appears to be moving from one governed by the ‘Washington Consensus’ to one more likely to be shaped by Beijing.

This book is part of the Insights series.

Praise for Dance of the Trillions

About the author

David Lubin is managing director and head of emerging markets economics at Citi, an American bank, where he is responsible for a team of more than 30 economists in 15 locations globally.

Purchase

• UK (via Amazon)
• Rest of world (via Brookings Institution Press)
• Students (via Browns Books)

Tectonic Politics: Global Political Risk in an Age of Transformation Book sysadmin 7 May 2019

Political risk now affects more markets and countries than ever before and that risk will continue to rise. But traditional methods of managing political risk are no longer legitimate or effective.

In Tectonic Politics, Nigel Gould-Davies explores the complex, shifting landscape of political risk and how to navigate it. He analyses trends in each form of political risk: the power to destroy, seize, regulate, and tax.

He shows how each of these forms reflects a deeper transformation of the global political economy that is reordering the relationship between power, wealth, and values. In a world where everything is political, the craft of engagement is as important as the science of production and the art of the deal.

The successful company must integrate that craft—the engager’s way of seeing and doing—into strategy and culture.

Drawing on a career in academia, business, and diplomacy, Gould-Davies provides corporate leaders, scholars, and engaged citizens with a groundbreaking study of the fastest-rising political risk today. ‘As tectonic plates shape the earth,’ he writes, ‘so tectonic politics forges its governance.’

The book is published as part of the Insights series.

Praise for Tectonic Politics

About the author

Nigel Gould-Davies was an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.

Purchase

• UK (via Amazon)
• Rest of world (via Brookings Institution Press)
• Students (via Browns Books)

War on Ukraine: The state of the global response 17 October 2022 — 6:30PM TO 7:30PM Anonymous (not verified) 3 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

Implications of the war for the future of multilateralism.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has tested the capacity for a unified global response to grave violations of the UN Charter. The world is in unchartered territory as a nuclear member of the United Nations Security Council attacks a non-nuclear country. 

Multilateral institutions that were born out of an effort to prevent war are struggling to prove their relevance in the face of growing existential threats to humanity. The war is exacerbating divisions within the global community, disrupting food and energy supplies worldwide and contributing to a profound crisis of multilateralism.

The longer these divisions last, the longer the war in the middle of Europe and the harder it will be to respond to the interconnected global crises that threaten everyone.

This discussion offers a unique insight into the macro-geopolitical questions in relation to the war in Ukraine with members of the Elders and other experts:

The panel considers:

• How can a more united global response to Russian aggression be built?

• What stands in the way of an effective multilateral response based on international norms?

• In what ways are divisions between UN member states influencing the trajectory of the war or prospects for peace?

• How is the conflict changing geopolitics and the ability of the multilateral system to address global challenges?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation. This event is organised in partnership between Chatham House and The Elders, the group of independent global leaders founded by Nelson Mandela who work for peace, justice and human rights.

Read the transcript.

Expanding and enhancing the global cyber workforce 17 November 2022 — 5:00PM TO 6:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 5 October 2022 Chatham House and Online

How can we address the cybersecurity workforce shortage and skills gap?

Accelerated digital transformation and heightened geopolitical tensions on the international stage have increased the need for effective cybersecurity practices and policies as well as a skilled workforce. Despite this, the demand for cybersecurity professionals continues to outpace the supply for societies and businesses globally, resulting in a cybersecurity workforce gap.

To ensure that digital transformation is available, safe and beneficial to all, significant efforts are needed to encourage cyber workforce capacity-building and knowledge-sharing at both national and international levels.

This discussion, supported by (ISC)² and the UK Cyber Security Council, will explore how to effectively address the twin challenges of the global cyber workforce shortage and skills gap.

• What are the implications of the global cyber workforce and skills gaps for businesses and societies?

• What shape do these gaps take within society? Where are they most prevalent and how do they vary?

• What is the role of education and private-public partnerships in effectively addressing these gaps?

• How does the UK National Cyber Strategy seek to address these challenges? What are the key lessons from this strategy?

• What other efforts are being made internationally to bridge this gap? What opportunities are there for knowledge-sharing and capacity-building?

• What is the role of diversity, equity and inclusion in tackling these gaps?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation. If you are not a member of Chatham House but would still like to attend the event please email Eleanor Macmillan-Fox to enquire about registration.

Read the transcript. 

The future of global trade: Beyond ‘peak globalization’? 23 November 2022 — 11:00AM TO 12:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 17 October 2022 Online

Is globalization in retreat?

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have highlighted how vulnerable international trade is. But, even before these recent shocks, rising protectionism in major economies around the world and concerns about the environment have weighed heavily on trade.

According to some key measures, the globalization trend appears to have slowed. But is ‘peak globalization’ a reality or a myth? What are the major phases of globaliszation and what might come next? The answer differs between trade in goods, services, capital, technology, data and people. And whether the future is a more integrated or fragmented world economy also depends on politics and the stability of the international order.

Key questions to be tackled at this event includes:

• How do recent shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, change globalization? 

• What are the key indicators for the global integration of major economies?

• Will there be a split between a US and China-dominated ’trading sphere of influence’?

• Could trade in services offer ‘globalization’ a new phase of rapid growth?

• What impact will technology continue to have on global trade and the future of globalization?

As with all members events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

The discussion is part of the Chatham House Global Trade Policy Forum. The Global Trade Policy Forum is supported by founding partner AIG, associate partner Boston Consulting Group and supporting partners Clifford Chance LLP, Diageo PLC and UPS.

Read the transcript. 

The era of ‘reglobalization’ 15 June 2023 — 6:00PM TO 7:00PM Anonymous (not verified) 14 February 2023 Chatham House and Online

How to balance international trade with efforts to enhance domestic economic resilience?

The global trade outlook remains challenging in 2023. Geopolitical tensions and national security concerns are playing a greater role in trade policy with a focus on strengthening supply chain resilience and reducing economic dependencies. In addition, the turn towards industrial policies has raised concerns about unfair trade practices and protectionism.

The debate about the future of globalization has only therefore deepened. While ‘deglobalization’ dominates the current public discourse on trade, is ‘reglobalization’ a better term to describe patterns of economic integration and fracturing across different economies and sectors?

The panel of experts discuss:

• To what extent are efforts to meet climate goals and maintain technological leadership intertwined with industrial policy and national security objectives?

• What do recent measures by the US – including the Inflation Reduction Act and a push on semiconductors – mean for cooperation with like-minded partners such as the EU?

• Are any countries resisting the protectionist trend and continuing to champion open trade?

• What steps can be taken to strengthen strategic and sensitive supply chains, for example, for critical minerals, high-capacity batteries and semiconductors?

• Is it possible to develop and advance a positive trade agenda for a reglobalized world? If so, what would it look like?

As with all member events, questions from the audience drive the conversation.

Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally Expert comment NCapeling 16 March 2022

The effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict.

Russia and Ukraine rank 11th and 55th respectively in terms of their national economies but, for the global supply of critical resources such as energy, food, and minerals, these two countries together are far bigger hitters – and both the threat and reality of resource flows from them being reduced have already driven up global prices.

The world is already facing a cost-of-living squeeze coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, so further price spikes or supply constraints have the potential to seriously undermine food and energy security, equitable access to basic goods and services, and social stability around the world – which can then potentially create systemic risks for economies and societies.

The global implications of the Ukraine conflict are only just beginning to be explored fully but the immediate impacts of the crisis on global markets are already well-documented. In the first few days after Russia’s invasion, energy prices spiked, triggering further fertilizer price rises – as fertilizer production is highly energy intensive – which in turn is contributing to food price rises because fertilizer costs are an important factor in food production.

Interruptions to shipping in the region around Ukraine – as well as globally – have impeded the flow of goods which pushed prices up even further, while economic sanctions on cross-border flows of goods and finance are further adding to market pressures. But this is just the start – these impacts will bring ripple effects which propagate far beyond their point of origin, known as ‘cascading risks’.

Risk is a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability – in terms of the Ukraine invasion, the hazard is the conflict and its immediate impacts on the societies and economies of Ukraine and Russia, while exposure relates to the degree to which other countries are likely to be affected depending on how much they are integrated into the global economy or the ‘just in time’ nature of their supply chains.

Vulnerability relates to a society’s capacity to mitigate the harmful impacts of the conflict, such as controlling borders, sourcing alternative goods from suppliers, or protecting against price or supply shocks.

Risk cascades – the second- and third-order impacts of the original hazard and of responses to that hazard – can interact across sectoral boundaries – as with energy and food, for example – and their compound effect can lead to overall systemic risks for society.

Anticipating this potential is essential to understanding the nature and scale of the global ramifications being felt from the Ukraine conflict. Recent work in the UK to assess levels of cascading risks resulting from a changing climate – the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – provides a valuable framework for thinking about this area.

It examines key pathways for risk to cascade through global systems – when applied to the situation in Ukraine, these pathways and their interactions offer an indication of the scale of crisis that citizens face far beyond Ukraine’s and Russia’s borders.

Interruptions to the flows of goods and energy

In globalized trade networks, localized disruption to supply chains rapidly yields widespread international impacts – of particular concern is the immediate supply of food because most countries rely on lean supply chains and some may only have a few days food within their own borders.

Experience from previous food price crises indicate even small interruptions to trade can result in runs on the market and rapid price inflation. In the case of this conflict, the trade interruption will be far from small because, between them, Russia and Ukraine export around one-quarter of all traded wheat, more than three-quarters of traded sunflower oil, and one-sixth of traded maize.

Energy markets are also a concern because many countries use more energy than they produce and therefore rely on imports of energy or fuel for domestic use. Russia produces around ten per cent of the world’s commercial energy with a concentration of sales in major regions such as the European Union (EU) and China.

As with food, a shortfall in energy provision leads to market runs and rapid inflation as actors compete in a tightening space, while poorly designed policy interventions by nations trying to ensure their own security add further pressure to global supply and worsen price rises. In addition, the closely interconnected nature of energy markets means disruption to one fuel – such as gas in this case – affects global prices for other forms of energy.

The impact of moving people and money

As the last decade richly illustrates, the cross-border flows of people impact those societies absorbing them – for example, contributing to a rise in nationalism – as well as increase the costs of supplying essential resources. Given many people are understandably fleeing this conflict, other countries may struggle to cope as the cost-of-living crisis and urgent efforts to bolster national security infrastructure may squeeze available public funds.

Financial flows are crucial to the functioning of global economies, whether for inward investment or insurance and – as Russian citizens may be about to discover – restricting the global flow of money has a serious impact on households. Beyond Russia, the outflow of money from major financial centres such as London to meet insurance claims or to enable infrastructure reinvestment post-conflict may also have severe knock-on economic impacts.

The impact on governance and health

The global spikes in energy and food prices resulting from these supply chain disruptions will see many countries struggle with rising food and energy insecurity as well as increased inequality. Taken together these conditions create many issues beyond immigration pressures and the associated politics, including increased inequality and civil unrest.

This potentially destabilizes governments which has consequences for the stability of an entire region such as interrupted supply chains, the need to deploy peacekeeping forces, or significant flows of aid – all with global consequences far beyond the countries in question.

Populations may suffer mental health impacts arising from the Ukraine invasion, whether from the trauma of being forced to leave home to escape conflict, anxiety for the wellbeing and safety of families and friends caught up in it, or a more general anxiety arising from the perception of living in an unstable world.

The Globus user conference, now in its 22nd year, brought together over 180 researchers, system administrators, developers, and IT leaders from 55 top research computing centers, national labs, federal agencies, […]

The post Highlights from GlobusWorld 2024: The Conference for Reimagining Research IT appeared first on HPCwire.

What's the connection between long-term health and financial stability? Neuroscientist Wendy Suzuki and HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth's CEO Annabel Spring explore the critical components of a good life — and how simple actions like exercise and financial planning can boost your present and future well-being. They discuss how to maximize your sense of joy, transform your anxiety into a force for good and keep your brain healthy over the course of your life. (This content is made possible by HSBC. It however does not necessarily reflect the views of HSBC.)

FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva today called on countries to put nutrition high on their national and international agendas, and to take a lead role in the upcoming Second [...]

Washington, 15 September 2016 - The recent entry into force of a ground-breaking international accord on illegal fishing is a welcome development but it now requires "strong and effective implementation", FAO [...]

Cancun, Mexico. On [...]

Rome - The experience of farmers who manage agricultural heritage can help achieve the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration's main goals: support and scale-up efforts [...]

In December 2017, the United Nations General Assembly proclaimed the UN Decade of Family Farming 2019-2028 (UNDFF) to serve as a framework for developing public policies and investments to [...]

Rome - The FAO - Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems Programme opens the process of establishing a new Scientific Advisory Groupfor the 2021-2022 term.  The Programme is seeking for [...]

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in collaboration with the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), will hold a Global Dialogue on the [...]

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), through the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) Programme, is organizing the International Conference on Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems 2021 [...]

International fertilizer benchmark prices have risen throughout 2021.

Click here to access the presentation by QU Dongyu.

by Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Information Note.

Three sites in China - an ancient tea-producing area, a nomadic livestock-rearing region and a rain-fed stone terrace farming system - were formally recognised  as Globally Important Agricultural Heritage [...]

2022 marks the 20th anniversary of the FAO GIAHS Programme. FAO launched the GIAHS initiative at the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg in 2002. Since its inception, [...]

Rome - Two new sites in Japan - an inland fisheries and associated paddy farming system centred on the country’s largest lake and a traditional fruit-growing area  believed to have been the [...]

FAO is pleased to announce the release of a new and upgraded version of theGlobal Record of Fishing Vessels, Refrigerated Transport Vessels and Supply Vessels (Global Record), [...]

Hybrid event (FAO headquarters and Zoom)

Wednesday, 2 November 2022 from 9:30 to 20:00 hours (CET) – with reception from [...]