Luis Gutiérrez, Eduardo Gutiérrez-Peña, Ramsés H. Mena.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 427--447.

Abstract:
This work presents a Bayesian predictive approach to statistical shape analysis. A modeling strategy that starts with a Gaussian distribution on the configuration space, and then removes the effects of location, rotation and scale, is studied. This boils down to an application of the projected normal distribution to model the configurations in the shape space, which together with certain identifiability constraints, facilitates parameter interpretation. Having better control over the parameters allows us to generalize the model to a regression setting where the effect of predictors on shapes can be considered. The methodology is illustrated and tested using both simulated scenarios and a real data set concerning eight anatomical landmarks on a sagittal plane of the corpus callosum in patients with autism and in a group of controls.

Haolun Shi, Guosheng Yin.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 399--425.

Abstract:
Bayesian approaches to phase II clinical trial designs are usually based on the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest and calibration of certain threshold for decision making. If the posterior probability is computed and assessed in a sequential manner, the design may involve the problem of multiplicity, which, however, is often a neglected aspect in Bayesian trial designs. To effectively maintain the overall type I error rate, we propose solutions to the problem of multiplicity for Bayesian sequential designs and, in particular, the determination of the cutoff boundaries for the posterior probabilities. We present both theoretical and numerical methods for finding the optimal posterior probability boundaries with $alpha$ -spending functions that mimic those of the frequentist group sequential designs. The theoretical approach is based on the asymptotic properties of the posterior probability, which establishes a connection between the Bayesian trial design and the frequentist group sequential method. The numerical approach uses a sandwich-type searching algorithm, which immensely reduces the computational burden. We apply least-square fitting to find the $alpha$ -spending function closest to the target. We discuss the application of our method to single-arm and double-arm cases with binary and normal endpoints, respectively, and provide a real trial example for each case.

Daniela Pauger, Helga Wagner.

Source: Bayesian Analysis, Volume 14, Number 2, 341--369.

Abstract:
We propose a Bayesian approach to obtain a sparse representation of the effect of a categorical predictor in regression type models. As this effect is captured by a group of level effects, sparsity cannot only be achieved by excluding single irrelevant level effects or the whole group of effects associated to this predictor but also by fusing levels which have essentially the same effect on the response. To achieve this goal, we propose a prior which allows for almost perfect as well as almost zero dependence between level effects a priori. This prior can alternatively be obtained by specifying spike and slab prior distributions on all effect differences associated to this categorical predictor. We show how restricted fusion can be implemented and develop an efficient MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) method for posterior computation. The performance of the proposed method is investigated on simulated data and we illustrate its application on real data from EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions).

Daniele Durante, Tommaso Rigon.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 3, 472--485.

Abstract:
Variational Bayes (VB) is a common strategy for approximate Bayesian inference, but simple methods are only available for specific classes of models including, in particular, representations having conditionally conjugate constructions within an exponential family. Models with logit components are an apparently notable exception to this class, due to the absence of conjugacy among the logistic likelihood and the Gaussian priors for the coefficients in the linear predictor. To facilitate approximate inference within this widely used class of models, Jaakkola and Jordan ( Stat. Comput. 10 (2000) 25–37) proposed a simple variational approach which relies on a family of tangent quadratic lower bounds of the logistic log-likelihood, thus restoring conjugacy between these approximate bounds and the Gaussian priors. This strategy is still implemented successfully, but few attempts have been made to formally understand the reasons underlying its excellent performance. Following a review on VB for logistic models, we cover this gap by providing a formal connection between the above bound and a recent Pólya-gamma data augmentation for logistic regression. Such a result places the computational methods associated with the aforementioned bounds within the framework of variational inference for conditionally conjugate exponential family models, thereby allowing recent advances for this class to be inherited also by the methods relying on Jaakkola and Jordan ( Stat. Comput. 10 (2000) 25–37).

Bradley Efron.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 234--235.

Yixin Wang, Andrew C. Miller, David M. Blei.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 229--233.

Eitan Greenshtein, Ya’acov Ritov.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 224--228.

Abstract:
We present some personal reflections on empirical Bayes/ compound decision (EB/CD) theory following Efron (2019). In particular, we consider the role of exchangeability in the EB/CD theory and how it can be achieved when there are covariates. We also discuss the interpretation of EB/CD confidence interval, the theoretical efficiency of the CD procedure, and the impact of sparsity assumptions.

Wenhua Jiang.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 219--223.

Abstract:
This is a contribution to the discussion of the enlightening paper by Professor Efron. We focus on empirical Bayes interval estimation. We discuss the oracle interval estimation rules, the empirical Bayes estimation of the oracle rule and the computation. Some numerical results are reported.

Aad van der Vaart.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 214--218.

Nan Laird.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 206--208.

Thomas A. Louis.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 202--205.

Bradley Efron.

Source: Statistical Science, Volume 34, Number 2, 177--201.

Abstract:
This article concerns the Bayes and frequentist aspects of empirical Bayes inference. Some of the ideas explored go back to Robbins in the 1950s, while others are current. Several examples are discussed, real and artificial, illustrating the two faces of empirical Bayes methodology: “oracle Bayes” shows empirical Bayes in its most frequentist mode, while “finite Bayes inference” is a fundamentally Bayesian application. In either case, modern theory and computation allow us to present a sharp finite-sample picture of what is at stake in an empirical Bayes analysis.

Airing on the aquarium's Twitch channel at 4 p.m. EST today, the two-hour session will focus on the video game's diverse insect population

A virus that spreads fear and stigma, as well as disease. It’s the story of HIV/AIDS as well as COVID-19. The former executive director of AIDS Thunder Bay reflects on the similarities he sees between HIV 35 years ago, and the coronavirus now.

A physiotherapist in Thunder Bay, Ont., has had his licence suspended until September, as part of a disciplinary hearing.

The tourism and hospitality industries, which play a large role in the economy of almost every community in northwestern Ontario, are taking a beating during the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, the manager of Tourism Thunder Bay is figuring out how “dire” the situation is, and what could be done to help.

Police in Thunder Bay have arrested and charged a man from the northwestern Ontario city following an investigation into allegations of child luring.

The Northwoods League announced Thursday that its 2020 season will not begin on May 26, as originally scheduled, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Thunder Bay District Health Unit (TBDHU) confirmed one new case of COVID-19 in its catchment area Thursday, bringing the total in the area to 77, with 65 of those listed as resolved.

Changes are coming to Thunder Bay's popular Ribfest event because of the COVID-19 outbreak, organizers said.

Parents-to-be who will have their new child delivered at the Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre have to follow a different set of guidelines than found at many other hospitals across Ontario.

An industrial building in Thunder Bay was slightly damaged in a fire late Thursday afternoon.

Canada Day celebrations and Live on the Waterfront programming will be delivered virtually in response to Ontario government orders, and physical distancing mandates, the City of Thunder Bay announced in a written release Thursday.

A 40-year-old man has been arrested and charged in connection with two break-ins at the Thunder Bay District Health unit offices, the Thunder Bay Police Service announced in a written release Friday.

Bayern Munich has secured Canadian soccer star Alphonso Davies for another two years through June 2025, with club officials and the teenager donning surgical masks to ink the deal during the global pandemic.

"We don't have the big hospitals and specialized care. Should COVID-19 spread, we don't have the capacity or the resources to deal with it," said Cree Grand Chief Abel Bosum.

OM EAST - Just before Easter 2010, the Hitchings travelled to Serbia with Simon (OM EAST) to deliver 1200 copies of "My First Bible" in Arli to the Arli church...

OM EAST is helping meet the need for Bible study booklets to help Bayash Christians grow in their faith.

OM EAST helps bring God’s truth to a people who believe they are cursed.

In a village in Serbia, OM workers see Roma believers reaching Roma, encouraging them to let God put a new song in their mouths.

There is concern that the Bayley-III overestimates developmental functioning in preterm populations. The ability of the Bayley-III Cognitive and Language scales to predict later functioning in very preterm children has not been examined.

The norms on the Bayley-III Cognitive and Language scales at 24 months had low sensitivity for impairment across general cognitive, verbal and nonverbal reasoning domains at 4 years, which was better detected using cut-points based on local term-born reference data. (Read the full article)

Led by Serge Gnabry's first-leg double, Bayern München have one foot in the quarter-finals as Chelsea come to Germany.

Maureen Hack
Aug 1, 2005; 116:333-341
ARTICLES

The Bombay toasty is a special sandwich sold on the streets of Bombay which is made with lots of fresh vegetables, mint chutney and butter.

The long-term battle to restore the Chesapeake Bay is quietly being waged on the Deep Creek Tract of Redden State Forest in Georgetown.

The Governor released a statement on USDA Report Showing Positive Impact of Farming Practices in Chesapeake Bay Region.

The Delaware Forest Service's Urban and Community Forestry (U&CF) Program is offering a new "Partnership Tree Planting Grant" to nonprofit groups who own property within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The U&CF Program will award eight (8) $1000 matching grants on a first-come, first-served basis to qualifying nonprofit groups who apply by February 27, 2015.

Volunteers of all ages are needed this month to help plant 8,800 hardwood seedlings along the Cypress Branch at Blackbird State Forest to enhance the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The planting will take place on Saturday, March 17, and Sunday, March 18, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. each day at Blackbird State Forest’s Naudain Tract, 2076 Harvey Straughn Road, Townsend, Delaware 19734. The weekend tree planting is a “rain or shine” event. Equipment, including shovels, will be provided. Volunteers are encouraged to dress appropriately for the weather and wear boots or other work shoes. Snacks will be provided and commemorative T-shirts and patches will be given to both youth and adult volunteers on a first-come, first-served basis. The project is a cooperative partnership between the Delaware Forest Service, the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC) Division of Watershed Stewardship, and the Girl Scouts of the USA.

When a new shellfish grower recently placed his first shipment of tiny oysters in growing cages in Rehoboth Bay, it marked the physical start of Delaware’s shellfish aquaculture program administered by the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control’s Division of Fish & Wildlife.

DOVER – Bayhealth and Beebe Medical Centers have each received $750,000 in federal grant funds from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) to develop rural residency programs. HRSA awarded approximately $20 million in Rural Residency Planning and Development Program (RRPD) grants to recipients across […]

The plea pointed out that on the same day the Union government issued an advisory asking all private and public firms not to reduce salaries or sack employees due to the pandemic.

The Marrakech film festival, which was held from November 29 to December 7, had Gitanjali Rao’s hand-painted animated film Bombay Rose vying for the festival's top prize, the Golden Star.

World Cup record scorer Miroslav Klose has signed a one-year contract to become Bayern Munich assistant coach under head coach Hansi Flick from next season, the Bundesliga champions said Thursday.