Josh Rushton writes: I’ve been following your blog for a while and checked in today to see if there was a thread on last week’s big-splash Stanford antibody study (the one with the shocking headline that they got 50 positive results in a “random” sample of 3330 antibody tests, suggesting that nearly 2% of the […]

Lauren and Jonah wrote this case study which shows how to do Mister P in R using Stan. It’s a great case study: it’s not just the code for setting up and fitting the multilevel model, it also discusses the poststratification data, graphical exploration of the inferences, and alternative implementations of the model. Adam Haber […]

Seth Flaxman et al. have an updated version of their model of coronavirus progression. Flaxman writes: Countries with successful control strategies (for example, Greece) never got above small numbers thanks to early, drastic action. Or put another way: if we did China and showed % of population infected (or death rate), we’d erroneously conclude that […]

tl;dr: Their 95% interval for the infection rate, given the data available, is [0.7%, 1.8%]. My Bayesian interval is [0.3%, 2.4%]. Most of what makes my interval wider is the possibility that the specificity and sensitivity of the tests can vary across labs. To get a narrower interval, you’d need additional assumptions regarding the specificity […]

What’s new? The new and shiny reduce_sum facility released with Stan 2.23 is far more user-friendly and makes it easier to scale Stan programs with more CPU cores than it was before. While Stan is awesome for writing models, as the size of the data or complexity of the model increases it can become impractical […]

Ivan Oransky points us to this amusing retraction of a meta-analysis. The problem: “Standard errors were used instead of standard deviations when using data from one of the studies”! Actually, I saw something similar happen in a consulting case once. The other side had a report with estimates and standard errors . . . the […]

The Orioles outfielder was open with reporters after publishing an emotional essay.

Tanner, Donald May 10, 1938 - May 8, 2020 Donald Tanner, 81, of Punta Gorda, FL, died on May 8, 2020. Funeral arrangements by: .....

Ricardo Santana Jr., whose six-year streak as Oaklawn's leading rider was ended in 2019 by David Cohen, has been suspended the final 10 racing days of the 2020 race meeting at the Hot Springs, Ark., track for an incident involving Cohen in the stretch run of the seventh race on Sunday, April 5. Santana was […]

The post Elbow Room: Santana Suspended 10 Days By Oaklawn Stewards For Careless Riding appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

In a new video feature being introduced today, Paulick Report publisher Ray Paulick tries to answer questions that readers have submitted using the “Ask Ray” button at the top of the horse racing website's home page. Many recent “Ask Ray” questions have focused on re-scheduling of major races and the resumption of the sport in […]

The post Introducing Ask Ray: Impertinent Answers To Important Questions appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

In this edition of the Triple Crown News Minute, Paulick Report publisher Ray Paulick takes a look at the first division of Saturday's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark. The Arkansas Derby is an official points race on the road to the Kentucky Derby that offers a total of 170 points […]

The post Triple Crown News Minute Presented By Kentucky Equine Research: Can Anyone Beat Charlatan? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Everybody wants to become the best in their industry offline, as well as online. For example, if you’re selling baby clothes online, then you probably want to be the best selling or the most appreciated eShop. If you have a travel blog, you definitely want to be an influencer for other travelers. Also, if your...

  https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2009-12-14_train.htm

Mid-morning on Sunday, August 28, a ranger at the Mather Campground on the South Rim of Grand Canyon National Park received a report of a hiker possibly in distress on the Tanner Trail. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2011-08-29_distressed-hiker.htm

The body of a man discovered near Tanner Beach in Grand Canyon National Park on Sunday, August 28, has been identified as that of 52-year old Stephen Norman O’Keeffe from Flagstaff, AZ. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/body-discovered-near-tanner-beach-in-grand-canyon-national-park-identified.htm

Rangers in Grand Canyon National Park are seeking the public’s assistance in locating 47-year old Shaw Joseph Ostermann of Tempe, Arizona. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/2012-04-17_missing.htm

Horace P. Albright Training Center was officially listed to the National Register of Historic Places on September 30, 2013. The only National Park Service (NPS) training center in the West and located within the boundaries of Grand Canyon National Park, the Center is a state significant Historic District exemplifying simple, practical, modernist design of the Mission 66 Era. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/albright-training-center.htm

On Saturday, September 13, 2014, Grand Canyon National Park will dedicate the park as a Globally Important Bird Area as part of its 7th Annual Celebrate Wildlife Day. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/september-2014-wildlife-day.htm

The National Weather Service has issued an excessive heat warning for parts of Grand Canyon National Park. The warning is in effect from 10 am Saturday, June 17 to 8 pm Wednesday, June 21 for areas below 5,000 feet in the canyon including Phantom Ranch and Indian Garden. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/summer-safety.htm

After several weeks of pipeline breaks and water restrictions, water in storage on the South Rim of Grand Canyon has reached sustainable levels. Park operations will return to and stay at Level 1 water conservation measures. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/level-1-water.htm

An international team of paleontologists has united to study important fossil footprints recently discovered in a remote location within Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. A large sandstone boulder contains several exceptionally well-preserved trackways of primitive tetrapods (four-footed animals) which inhabited an ancient desert environment. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/newly-discovered-fossils.htm

On Tuesday, June 4 and Wednesday, June 5 staff from the Division of Science and Resource Management (SRM) will be applying herbicide to the traffic islands on South Entrance and Yavapai Roads to remove grasses that attract elk in these congested areas of the Grand Canyon Village. The intent of the removal is to minimize conflicts between wildlife (elk) and both visitors and residents along the road corridors. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/south-entrance-and-yavapai-herbicide-use.htm

Importance health notice for Grand Canyon South Rim community members. https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/news/community-notice.htm

US Park Rangers of Grand Canyon National Park seek tips from the public to aid a vehicle burglary investigation. https://www.nps.gov/orgs/1563/grca-rfi-04132020.htm

Welcome to the new world where global emergency collides with 21st century sloganism.

Despite these Indiana neighbors being forced to stay isolated during the COVID-19 crisis, they have come up with a clever way of staying connected.

The post This Neighborhood Has Been Staying Connected During Social Distancing With Creative ‘I Spy’ Game appeared first on Good News Network.

Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill) B.S.P) is the dominant forest cover type in interior Alaska and is prone to frequent, stand-replacing wildfires.

This report examines public perspectives on disturbance-based management conducted in the central Cascade Range in Oregon as part of the Blue River Landscape Strategy.

A century of effective fire suppression has radically transformed many forested landscapes on the east side of the Cascades. Managers of dry forests critically need information to help plan for and implement forest restoration. Management priorities include the stabilization of fire regimes and the maintenance of habitat for the northern spotted owl and other old-forest associates.

Two series of single and stereo photographs display a range of natural conditions and fuel loadings in sagebrush with grass and ponderosa pinejuniper types in central Montana. Each group of photos includes inventory information summarizing vegetation composition, structure, and loading; woody material loading and density by size class; forest floor depth and loading; and various site characteristics. The natural fuels photo series is designed to help land managers appraise fuel and vegetation conditions in natural settings.

We describe a protocol to monitor the effectiveness of the Tongass Land Management Plan (TLMP) management standards for maintaining fish habitat. The protocol uses juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in small tributary streams in forested watersheds. We used a 3-year pilot study to develop detailed methods to estimate juvenile salmonid populations, measure habitat, and quantitatively determine trends in juvenile coho salmon abundance over 10 years. Coho salmon have been shown to be sensitive to habitat alterations, and we use coho salmon parr as the primary indicator in the protocol. A priori criteria for type I and type II error rates, effect size, and sample sizes for the protocol were derived with estimates of variance computed from the 3-year pilot study. The protocol is designed to detect trends in abundance of coho salmon parr, as well as coho salmon fry and Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma), in small streams managed according to TLMP standards and guidelines and to compare these to trends in unmanaged (old-growth) watersheds. Trends are adjusted to account for statistically significant habitat covariates. This information provides an important element in monitoring land management practices in the Tongass National Forest. The methods we describe may have application to monitoring protocols elsewhere for fish populations and land management practices.

Over a 3-day weekend in the spring of 2004 a group of scientists interested in extending understanding of place as applied in recreation research and management convened a working session in Portland, Oregon. The purpose of the gathering was to clarify their understanding of place-related concepts, approaches to the study of people-place relations, and the application of that understanding in recreation management for the purpose of integrating perspectives from different disciplines, discussing approaches to understanding and measuring sense of place, and other questions around the study and application of place-related concepts. Topics that generated the most discussion included how social processes influence place meanings, how place meanings are shared and negoitated within social groups, and when and how place meanings and attachments focus, reduce, or avert conflict in natural resource planning and management. This collection of papers is a result of that meeting.

This report synthesizes the literature on the role of informal economic activity in the United States postindustrial economy. Informal economic activity is expanding in the United States and is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The formal and informal economic sectors are inextricably intertwined, with individuals and households combining elements of both sectors to construct their livelihoods. Although the informal economy is often thought of as the domain of economically marginal individuals and households, virtually everyone participates in the informal economy to some extent. However, the literature highlights how factors such as social status and household position in the formal economy affect whether participation in informal economic activity is exploitative or empowering. The nontimber forest products sector serves as a case study of why it is important to consider informal economic activity when developing natural resource and economic development policy. We recommend steps policymakers can take to identify and encourage positive aspects of the informal economic activity. We also highlight several areas of research to improve understandings of the role of informal economic activity in postindustrial societies.

This study's objective was to document and describe the current seedling bank of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) stands in southeast Alaska that were partially cut between 1900 and 1984.

Scientists have had little information about how prescribed fire and cattle grazing—common practices in many Western ponderosa pine forests—affect plant abundance and reproduction in the forest understory. Pacific Northwest Research Station scientists began to explore how these practices affect vegetation in a five-year study of postfire vegetation in eastern Oregon ponderosa pine forests where cattle have been routinely pastured from late June or early July through early to mid August. For this area of eastern Oregon, they found that excluding cattle grazing during peak growing season increased native plant cover and grass flowering capability in ungrazed areas compared to grazed areas. Because vegetation was measured prior to releasing cattle on the land, the study's results tend to reflect lasting grazing impacts rather than simple consumption.

Climate change is altering growing conditions in the temperate rain forest region that extends from northern California to the Gulf of Alaska. Longer, warmer growing seasons are generally increasing the overall potential for forest growth in the region. However, species differ in their ability to adapt to changing conditions. For example, researchers with Pacific Northwest Research Station examined forest trends for southeastern and southcentral Alaska and found that, in 13 years, western redcedar showed a 4.2-percent increase in live-tree biomass, while shore pine showed a 4.6-percent decrease. In general, the researchers found that the amount of live-tree biomass in extensive areas of unmanaged, higher elevation forest in southern Alaska increased by as much as 8 percent over the 13-year period, contributing to significant carbon storage. Hemlock dwarf mistletoe is another species expected to fare well under warmer conditions in Alaska. Model projections indicate that habitat for this parasitic species could increase 374 to 757 percent over the next 100 years. This could temper the prospects for western hemlock—a tree species otherwise expected to do well under future climate conditions projected for southern Alaska. In coastal forests of Washington and Oregon, water availability may be a limiting factor in future productivity, with gains at higher elevations but declines at lower elevations.

This report describes and documents the OpCost forest operations cost model, a key component of the BioSum analysis framework. OpCost is available in two editions: as a callable module for use with BioSum, and in a stand-alone edition that can be run directly from R. OpCost model logic and assumptions for this open-source tool are explained, references to the literature used in all of the submodels included in OpCost are provided, and guidance is offered on how to change the default hourly machine rates associated with overall logging cost calculations. OpCost enhancements such as cost component breakout, and identifying the least-cost harvest system, are also described and explained.

Transportation corridors (notably roads) affect wildlife habitat, populations, and entire ecosystems. Considerable effort has been expended to quantify direct effects of roads on wildlife populations and ecological communities and processes. Much less effort has been expended toward quantifying indirect effects. In this report, we provide a comprehensive review of road/transportation corridor ecology; in particular, how this new field of ecology has advanced worldwide. Further, we discuss how research thus far has shaped our understanding and views of the ecological implications of transportation infrastructures, and, in turn, how this has led to the current guidance, policies, and management options. We learned that the impacts of transportation infrastructures are a global issue, with the potential to affect a wide variety of taxonomically diverse species and ecosystems. Because the majority of research to date has focused on the direct and more aesthetic and anthropocentric implications of transportation corridors, mainly wildlife-vehicle collisions, it is a fairly standard practice to incorporate underpasses, green bridges (i.e., overpasses), fencing, and barriers into road corridors to alleviate such impacts. Few studies, however, have been able to demonstrate the efficiency of these structures. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly evident that the indirect implications of transportation infrastructures (i.e., behavioral responses of wildlife individuals to roads) may be more pervasive, at least from the standpoint of biological diversity. Understanding how road corridors influence the functional connectivity of landscapes is crucial if we are to effectively manage species of concern. With these issues in mind, we propose a program of study that addresses the indirect and cumulative implications of transportation infrastructure on species distributions, community structure and ecosystem function

Once again we've doubled up on CONSULTANT TIPS at ALL ACCESS to help you steer your way through the not-even-close-to-normal world that we continue to operate in. This week MC MEDIA … more

Charity ambassador and musician Cormac Neeson said: "The line up is as strong as you could ever hope for in the real world and every artist is born and bred right here in NI."

CONCORE ENTERTAINMENT star NATALIA DAMINI performed her new hit PACEMAKER (f/ PETEY PABLO) on an IG LIVE this past TUESDAY (NET NEWS 5/4) with iHEARTMEDIA Top 40 WAKS (96.5 KISS … more

An NHL NETWORK documentary on the 50th anniversary of the BOSTON BRUINS' 1970 STANLEY CUP championship is narrated by DROPKICK MURPHYS founder KEN CASEY. "THE 1970 BRUINS: BIG, BAD … more

Following their groundbreaking debut on ABC-TV's  GOOD MORNING AMERICA, CURB/WORD ENTERTAINMENT four-time GRAMMY winning duo FOR KING & COUNTRY have unveiled the official video … more

Speaking on the current status of the The Voice’s return Brooke said she’s in constant contact with fellow finalists and production

Aiken have today shared details about the future of the gigs, which featured Tom Jones, Sinead O'Connor, The National and Fontaines DC

Media consultant BRIAN WRIGHT of WRIGHT MEDIA GROUP has a message for radio and other broadcasters during this COVID-19 pandemic. WRIGHT feels your goal should be to transform "gloom and … more

Statement Highlight: Resistant blood pressure affects 12 percent to 15 percent of people currently being treated for high blood pressure.

Washington, D.C.—March 20, 2020—Patient groups representing millions of people with serious health conditions are urging a U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to reject a federal rule expanding the availability of short-term limited-duration...

WASHINGTON, D.C., 1 de abril del 2020 – Después de años de demoras perjudiciales por parte de la FDA, en julio del año pasado un juez federal estableció como fecha límite el 12 de mayo del 2020 para que los fabricantes de cigarrillos electrónicos...