Experts on this webinar discussed the effects of trauma on the development of young refugee children, and how early child-care programs can address these traumatic experiences. The discussion featured practical strategies that child-care providers in Canada are implementing to support refugee children and families. 

First report examines Canadian challenges & solutions in housing Syrian refugees

WASHINGTON — Four years after the peak of the 2015–16 migration and refugee crisis in Europe and amid swelling arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border and elsewhere, new evidence sheds light on how well countries have responded to an unprecedented surge in mixed flows of humanitarian, economic and family migrants.

OBJECTIVE

Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for obesity, but it is unknown if outcomes differ between adults with early- versus adult-onset obesity. We investigated how obesity status at 20 years of age affects outcomes after bariatric surgery later in life.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of MK-0941, a glucokinase activator (GKA), when added to stable-dose insulin glargine in patients with type 2 diabetes.

According to leaked drafts, the Trump administration is considering a rule that could have sweeping effects on both legal immigration to the United States and the use of public benefits by legal immigrants and their families. This report examines the potential scale of the expected rule’s impact, including at national and state levels and among children, as well as Hispanic and Asian American/Pacific Islander immigrants.

This webinar highlights findings from an MPI report examining the potential impacts of expected changes to the public charge rule by the Trump administration. Leaked draft versions suggest the rule could sharply expand the number of legally present noncitizens facing difficulty getting a green card or extending a visa as a result of their family's use of public benefits. The rule likely would discourage millions from accessing health, nutrition, and social services for which they or their U.S.-citizen dependents are eligible.

The first years of a child’s life are a time of immense growth, and exposure to trauma—if left unaddressed—can have significant, lifelong effects. This issue brief examines how young children of refugees and other immigrants may be affected by trauma, and what early childhood education and care programs, health-care providers, and others can do to mitigate its adverse effects.

The public-charge rule issued by the Trump administration in August 2019 will have profound effects on future immigration and on use of public benefits by millions of legal noncitizens and their U.S.-citizen family members. Complex standards for determining when an immigrant is likely to become a public charge could cause a significant share of the nearly 23 million noncitizens and U.S. citizens in benefits-using immigrant families to disenroll, as this commentary explains.

Jay S. Skyler
Oct 1, 2004; 22:162-166
Feature Articles

More barriers exist now than at the end of World War II, says designer Alexandra Auer. And when you erect one wall, you unwittingly create a second -- an "us" versus "them" partition in the mind that compromises our collective safety. With intriguing results from her social design project focused on two elementary schools separated by a fence, Auer encourages us to dismantle our biases and regain perspective on all the things we have in common.

STANDARD ERRORS VS STANDARD DEVIATIONS Click to enlarge There’s an ancient haiku that goes: People confuse a well-estimated mean with a certain outcome Ok, that’s not true. But Jake Hofman, Dan Goldstein, and Jessica Hullman have a new paper (recently accepted at CHI 2020) about this. They bet you’ll think the results of their paper […]

The post How visualizing inferential uncertainty can mislead readers about treatment effects in scientific results appeared first on Decision Science News.

Cheltenham : printed for G.A. Williams, librarian, [1823]

Edinburgh : [publisher not identified], 1812.

New York : W. Wood, 1887.

London : John Murray, 1876.

[Edinburgh?] : [publisher not identified], [1901?]

Edinburgh : printed by J. Stark, [1836?]

London : J. Churchill, 1864.

Rockville, Maryland : National Institute on Drug Abuse, 1984.

Helsinki : Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, University of Helsinki, 1985.

Durba Bhattacharya, Sourabh Bhattacharya.

Source: Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, Volume 34, Number 1, 71--89.

Abstract:
Present day bio-medical research is pointing towards the fact that cognizance of gene–environment interactions along with genetic interactions may help prevent or detain the onset of many complex diseases like cardiovascular disease, cancer, type2 diabetes, autism or asthma by adjustments to lifestyle. In this regard, we propose a Bayesian semiparametric model to detect not only the roles of genes and their interactions, but also the possible influence of environmental variables on the genes in case-control studies. Our model also accounts for the unknown number of genetic sub-populations via finite mixtures composed of Dirichlet processes. An effective parallel computing methodology, developed by us harnesses the power of parallel processing technology to increase the efficiencies of our conditionally independent Gibbs sampling and Transformation based MCMC (TMCMC) methods. Applications of our model and methods to simulation studies with biologically realistic genotype datasets and a real, case-control based genotype dataset on early onset of myocardial infarction (MI) have yielded quite interesting results beside providing some insights into the differential effect of gender on MI.

The random-effects or normal-normal hierarchical model is commonly utilized in a wide range of meta-analysis applications. A Bayesian approach to inference is very attractive in this context, especially when a meta-analysis is based only on few studies. The bayesmeta R package provides readily accessible tools to perform Bayesian meta-analyses and generate plots and summaries, without having to worry about computational details. It allows for flexible prior specification and instant access to the resulting posterior distributions, including prediction and shrinkage estimation, and facilitating for example quick sensitivity checks. The present paper introduces the underlying theory and showcases its usage.

Zhou Fan, Iain M. Johnstone.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 5, 2855--2886.

Abstract:
We study the spectra of MANOVA estimators for variance component covariance matrices in multivariate random effects models. When the dimensionality of the observations is large and comparable to the number of realizations of each random effect, we show that the empirical spectra of such estimators are well approximated by deterministic laws. The Stieltjes transforms of these laws are characterized by systems of fixed-point equations, which are numerically solvable by a simple iterative procedure. Our proof uses operator-valued free probability theory, and we establish a general asymptotic freeness result for families of rectangular orthogonally invariant random matrices, which is of independent interest. Our work is motivated in part by the estimation of components of covariance between multiple phenotypic traits in quantitative genetics, and we specialize our results to common experimental designs that arise in this application.

Chengchun Shi, Rui Song, Wenbin Lu.

Source: The Annals of Statistics, Volume 47, Number 4, 2348--2377.

Abstract:
Precision medicine is an emerging medical paradigm that focuses on finding the most effective treatment strategy tailored for individual patients. In the literature, most of the existing works focused on estimating the optimal treatment regime. However, there has been less attention devoted to hypothesis testing regarding the optimal treatment regime. In this paper, we first introduce the notion of conditional qualitative treatment effects (CQTE) of a set of variables given another set of variables and provide a class of equivalent representations for the null hypothesis of no CQTE. The proposed definition of CQTE does not assume any parametric form for the optimal treatment rule and plays an important role for assessing the incremental value of a set of new variables in optimal treatment decision making conditional on an existing set of prescriptive variables. We then propose novel testing procedures for no CQTE based on kernel estimation of the conditional contrast functions. We show that our test statistics have asymptotically correct size and nonnegligible power against some nonstandard local alternatives. The empirical performance of the proposed tests are evaluated by simulations and an application to an AIDS data set.

Trang Quynh Nguyen, Elizabeth A. Stuart.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 518--520.

Boyu Ren, Sergio Bacallado, Stefano Favaro, Tommi Vatanen, Curtis Huttenhower, Lorenzo Trippa.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 494--517.

Abstract:
Detecting associations between microbial compositions and sample characteristics is one of the most important tasks in microbiome studies. Most of the existing methods apply univariate models to single microbial species separately, with adjustments for multiple hypothesis testing. We propose a Bayesian analysis for a generalized mixed effects linear model tailored to this application. The marginal prior on each microbial composition is a Dirichlet process, and dependence across compositions is induced through a linear combination of individual covariates, such as disease biomarkers or the subject’s age, and latent factors. The latent factors capture residual variability and their dimensionality is learned from the data in a fully Bayesian procedure. The proposed model is tested in data analyses and simulation studies with zero-inflated compositions. In these settings and within each sample, a large proportion of counts per microbial species are equal to zero. In our Bayesian model a priori the probability of compositions with absent microbial species is strictly positive. We propose an efficient algorithm to sample from the posterior and visualizations of model parameters which reveal associations between covariates and microbial compositions. We evaluate the proposed method in simulation studies, and then analyze a microbiome dataset for infants with type 1 diabetes which contains a large proportion of zeros in the sample-specific microbial compositions.

Michael E. Sobel, Martin A. Lindquist.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 452--472.

Abstract:
Neuroscientists often use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to infer effects of treatments on neural activity in brain regions. In a typical fMRI experiment, each subject is observed at several hundred time points. At each point, the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) response is measured at 100,000 or more locations (voxels). Typically, these responses are modeled treating each voxel separately, and no rationale for interpreting associations as effects is given. Building on Sobel and Lindquist ( J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 109 (2014) 967–976), who used potential outcomes to define unit and average effects at each voxel and time point, we define and estimate both “point” and “cumulated” effects for brain regions. Second, we construct a multisubject, multivoxel, multirun whole brain causal model with explicit parameters for regions. We justify estimation using BOLD responses averaged over voxels within regions, making feasible estimation for all regions simultaneously, thereby also facilitating inferences about association between effects in different regions. We apply the model to a study of pain, finding effects in standard pain regions. We also observe more cerebellar activity than observed in previous studies using prevailing methods.

Joseph Antonelli, Maitreyi Mazumdar, David Bellinger, David Christiani, Robert Wright, Brent Coull.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 14, Number 1, 257--275.

Abstract:
Humans are routinely exposed to mixtures of chemical and other environmental factors, making the quantification of health effects associated with environmental mixtures a critical goal for establishing environmental policy sufficiently protective of human health. The quantification of the effects of exposure to an environmental mixture poses several statistical challenges. It is often the case that exposure to multiple pollutants interact with each other to affect an outcome. Further, the exposure-response relationship between an outcome and some exposures, such as some metals, can exhibit complex, nonlinear forms, since some exposures can be beneficial and detrimental at different ranges of exposure. To estimate the health effects of complex mixtures, we propose a flexible Bayesian approach that allows exposures to interact with each other and have nonlinear relationships with the outcome. We induce sparsity using multivariate spike and slab priors to determine which exposures are associated with the outcome and which exposures interact with each other. The proposed approach is interpretable, as we can use the posterior probabilities of inclusion into the model to identify pollutants that interact with each other. We utilize our approach to study the impact of exposure to metals on child neurodevelopment in Bangladesh and find a nonlinear, interactive relationship between arsenic and manganese.

Emily Berg, Danhyang Lee.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 4, 2158--2188.

Abstract:
Quantiles of the distributions of several measures of erosion are important parameters in the Conservation Effects Assessment Project, a survey intended to quantify soil and nutrient loss on crop fields. Because sample sizes for domains of interest are too small to support reliable direct estimators, model based methods are needed. Quantile regression is appealing for CEAP because finding a single family of parametric models that adequately describes the distributions of all variables is difficult and small area quantiles are parameters of interest. We construct empirical Bayes predictors and bootstrap mean squared error estimators based on the linearly interpolated generalized Pareto distribution (LIGPD). We apply the procedures to predict county-level quantiles for four types of erosion in Wisconsin and validate the procedures through simulation.

Bret Zeldow, Vincent Lo Re III, Jason Roy.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Volume 13, Number 3, 1989--2010.

Abstract:
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a flexible machine learning algorithm capable of capturing nonlinearities between an outcome and covariates and interactions among covariates. We extend BART to a semiparametric regression framework in which the conditional expectation of an outcome is a function of treatment, its effect modifiers, and confounders. The confounders are allowed to have unspecified functional form, while treatment and effect modifiers that are directly related to the research question are given a linear form. The result is a Bayesian semiparametric linear regression model where the posterior distribution of the parameters of the linear part can be interpreted as in parametric Bayesian regression. This is useful in situations where a subset of the variables are of substantive interest and the others are nuisance variables that we would like to control for. An example of this occurs in causal modeling with the structural mean model (SMM). Under certain causal assumptions, our method can be used as a Bayesian SMM. Our methods are demonstrated with simulation studies and an application to dataset involving adults with HIV/Hepatitis C coinfection who newly initiate antiretroviral therapy. The methods are available in an R package called semibart.

Catherine Mankiw
May 24, 2017; 37:5221-5231
Development Plasticity Repair

Carrie J. McAdams
Jan 1, 1999; 19:431-441
Articles

RU Muller
Jul 1, 1987; 7:1951-1968
Articles

Priming refers to the influence that a previously encountered object exerts on future responses to similar objects. For many years, visual priming has been known as a facilitation and sometimes an inhibition effect that lasts for an extended period of time. It contrasts with the recent finding of an oscillated priming effect where facilitation and inhibition alternate over time periodically. Here we developed a computational model of visual priming that combines rhythmic sampling of the environment (attentional oscillation) with active preparation for future events (temporal expectation). Counterintuitively, it shows that both the sustained and oscillated priming effects can emerge from an interaction between attentional oscillation and temporal expectation. The interaction also leads to novel predictions, such as the change of visual priming effects with temporal expectation and attentional oscillation. Reanalysis of two published datasets and the results of two new experiments of visual priming tasks with male and female human participants provide support for the model's relevance to human behavior. More generally, our model offers a new perspective that may unify the increasing findings of behavioral and neural oscillations with the classic findings in visual perception and attention.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT There is increasing behavioral and neural evidence that visual attention is a periodic process that sequentially samples different alternatives in the theta frequency range. It contrasts with the classic findings of sustained facilitatory or inhibitory attention effects. How can an oscillatory perceptual process give rise to sustained attention effects? Here we make this connection by proposing a computational model for a "fruit fly" visual priming task and showing both the sustained and oscillated priming effects can have the same origin: an interaction between rhythmic sampling of the environment and active preparation for future events. One unique contribution of our model is to predict how temporal contexts affects priming. It also opens up the possibility of reinterpreting other attention-related classic phenomena.

Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, 3 April 2020.

BIS Bulletin No 7, April 2020. Past epidemics had long-lasting effects on economies through illness and the loss of lives, while Covid-19 is marked by widespread containment measures and relatively lower fatalities among young people. The short-term costs of Covid-19 will probably dwarf those of past epidemics, due to the unprecedented and synchronised global sudden stop in economic activity induced by containment measures. The current estimated impact on global GDP growth for 2020 is around -4%, with substantial downside risks if containment policies are prolonged. Output losses are larger for major economies.

Banks' performance on equity and debt markets since the Covid-19 outbreak has been on a par with that experienced after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. During the initial phase, the market sell-off swept over all banks, which underperformed significantly relative to other sectors. Still, markets showed some differentiation by bank nationality, and credit default swap (CDS) spreads rose the most for those banks that had entered the crisis with the highest level of credit risk. The subsequent stabilisation, brought about by forceful policy measures since mid-March, has favoured banks with higher profitability and healthier balance sheets. Less profitable banks saw their long-term rating outlooks revised to negative. And the CDS spreads of the riskiest banks continued increasing even through the stabilisation phase.

Bank of Italy Working Papers by Luca Metelli, Filippo Natoli and Luca Rossi

Bank of Italy Working Papers by Andrea Gazzani and Alejandro Vicondoa

Central Bank of Chile Working Papers by Gee Hee Hong, Matthew Klepacz, Ernesto Pasten and Raphael Schoenle

Optimism later in life is protective against a range of health problems. It has commonly been a focus in adolescent mental health promotion. Cross-sectional studies suggest a protective effect against adolescent health risks, but prospective studies have been lacking.

Optimism is somewhat protective against adolescent health risks; the strongest effect was seen against the onset of new depressive symptoms. Its protective effect against heavier substance use and antisocial behavior was modest and only for the highest categories compared to the lowest. Promoting optimism along with other positive aspects of psychological and emotional style has a role in mental health promotion that is likely to be enhanced if an intervention also addresses risk and protective factors in an adolescent's social context. (Read the full article)

The direct effects of prolactin on the nutritional and antimicrobial composition of breast milk have not been examined previously in women.

The study demonstrates that recombinant human prolactin increases milk volume, induces changes in milk composition consistent with those during normal lactogenesis, and increases antimicrobially active oligosaccharide concentrations. The data suggest that prolactin is an important mediator of normal lactogenesis. (Read the full article)

Delayed umbilical cord clamping in premature infants has been associated with decreased rates of intraventricular hemorrhage; however, the mechanisms that explain this finding have not been described.

Premature infants with delayed umbilical cord clamping have improved superior vena cava blood flow over the first days of life. This may provide one of the mechanism(s) by which this technique reduces the incidence in intraventricular hemorrhage in this at-risk population. (Read the full article)

Studies have found that the degree of detail with which palliative care is described and the order in which options are presented can affect end-of-life decisions. None of these studies, though, involved decisions regarding very premature infants.

Unlike other end-of-life decisions, those regarding extremely premature infants are influenced neither by the degree of detail nor order of presentation of management options. Deep-seated values embodied in the reasons given for these choices suggest why they are so robust. (Read the full article)

Cross-sectional imaging can reduce the negative appendectomy rate (NAR) in children being evaluated for suspected appendicitis; however, the ability of diagnostic imaging to decrease NAR may vary by age and gender.

Cross-sectional imaging leads to a significant reduction in NAR for children younger than 5 years and girls older than 10 years. For boys older than 5 years being evaluated for uncomplicated appendicitis, advanced imaging appears to have limited value. (Read the full article)

Disparities are known to exist in the prescription of opioid analgesics among racial and ethnic groups in the management of postoperative, cancer, and emergency department pain in patients across all ages, including children.

Race is associated with an unequal burden of perioperative pain and opioid adverse effects in children. Relatively, African American children had higher postoperative pain, and Caucasian children had higher incidences of opioid related adverse effects. (Read the full article)

Computerized provider order entry (CPOE) has been recognized to enhance the efficiency, safety, and quality of medical work. Yet vendors and organizations have not determined best practices for customizations, resulting in systems that have poor usability and unintended consequences of use.

This study demonstrated that systematically developed order sets reduce cognitive workload and order variation in the context of improved system usability and guideline adherence. The concept of cognitive workload reduction is novel in the setting of computer order entry. (Read the full article)

Adolescents living in lower-poverty neighborhoods have better mental health than youth in high-poverty contexts, but it is unclear if associations are causal. Furthermore, it is unknown why some youth benefit more than others from moving to more advantaged neighborhoods.

Using an experimental study that randomly assigned families to receive vouchers to move to lower-poverty neighborhoods, we found that recent violent crime victimization adversely modified the mental health effects of moving to better neighborhoods. (Read the full article)

Systematic screening for child abuse of all children presenting at emergency departments might increase the detection rate of child abuse but studies to support this proposal are scarce.

Systematic screening for child abuse in emergency departments is effective in increasing the detection of suspected child abuse. Training emergency department staff and requiring screening legally at emergency departments increase the extent of screening. (Read the full article)