bey Beyoncé's BeyGOOD initiative offers $6 million for coronavirus relief By www.latimes.com Published On :: Thu, 23 Apr 2020 15:36:20 -0400 Beyoncé's BeyGOOD initiative announced a $6-million coronavirus-relief fund to support organizations providing essential services to people in need. Full Article
bey Bop to Beyoncé and Megan Thee Stallion's new 'Savage' remix for coronavirus relief By www.latimes.com Published On :: Wed, 29 Apr 2020 17:38:18 -0400 Proceeds from Megan Thee Stallion and Beyoncé's new "Savage" remix will go toward coronavirus relief efforts in the artists' hometown of Houston. Full Article
bey New dad Anderson Cooper's colleagues are 'beyond happy' about his baby news By www.latimes.com Published On :: Fri, 1 May 2020 13:56:15 -0400 Savannah Guthrie, Gayle King and more of Anderson Cooper's journalist peers congratulated the CNN anchor on becoming a father to new son Wyatt. Full Article
bey Letters: Solutions to Indy's violence go beyond law enforcement By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Thu, 13 Feb 2020 10:00:32 +0000 When people have no respect for lives of others, it explains why the smallest disagreement can result in violent acts, a letter to the editor says. Full Article
bey Rap videos, virtual running club, bookmobile: Teachers go above and beyond amid pandemic By rssfeeds.indystar.com Published On :: Mon, 04 May 2020 11:19:56 +0000 Join IndyStar and #ThankATeacher during Teacher Appreciation Week. These are some educators that are making the best of a bad situation. Full Article
bey Beyond the brink By www.bbc.co.uk Published On :: Fri, 08 Apr 2011 19:13:03 +0000 President Obama said he wanted an answer on a budget deal by the morning. That deadline has passed. The talking goes on but the blame game is on in earnest. If there is a shutdown it will do deep damage to the image of one or both parties. The two sides can't even agree what it is they disagree about. The Democrats are doing a better job of setting the narrative. John Boehner made a mistake allowing the president to speak for him last night and issuing a joint statement with Harry Reid. He is not doing a good job of setting the narrative. The Republicans insist the argument is about the size of cuts. The Democrats say it is about ideology. Harry Reid's case is that the remaining issue is a Republican demand to take funds away from Planned Parenthood. Although this is a group that funds abortions he says it is illegal for federal money to go towards this. As far as I can see he is factually correct. So Mr Reid argues the Republicans are holding up the budget because they want to attack cancer screening for women. He says if that sounds ridiculous, it is because it is ridiculous. By contrast John Boehner, tense and strained before the microphones says it is about the size of the cuts. He says few policy issues remain. But he won't answer the question whether Planned Parenthood is one of them. He is not trying hard to set out his side of the story. I am not arguing that the Republicans don't have a case. But they are not making it with any verve or enthusiasm. Mr Boehner's lack of fighting spirit suggests that he accepts he will get the blame for a shut down. Full Article
bey VIDEO: GOP senator says China made ‘conscious decision’ to allow COVID-19 to spread beyond border By dennismichaellynch.com Published On :: Sat, 09 May 2020 16:53:12 +0000 The DML News App offers the best in news reporting. The post VIDEO: GOP senator says China made ‘conscious decision’ to allow COVID-19 to spread beyond border appeared first on Dennis Michael Lynch. Full Article News Feed Powered by DMLNewsApp.com
bey Towards Warsaw and Beyond By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Fri, 29 Apr 2016 10:30:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 9 June 2016 - 12:15pm to 10 June 2016 - 4:15pm Chatham House, London Agendapdf | 341.78 KB Meeting summarypdf | 167.44 KB The NATO Summit, to be held this July in Warsaw, will provide an opportunity for NATO to review its progress towards meeting both the new and more traditional challenges it faces. It will also make clear the political will, resources, priorities and direction of the alliance in the coming years. In light of resurgent geopolitical concerns, new and evolving challenges and long-standing structural anxieties, the summit is an important moment to review progress and define a new path forward.Building on workshops held over the previous six months, the US and the Americas Programme at Chatham House, jointly with the Polish Institute for International Affairs (PISM) and the Center for War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark are convening an expert roundtable to provide insight and analysis towards answering these questions.Attendance at this event is by invitation only. Event attributes Chatham House Rule Department/project US and the Americas Programme, NATO: Charting the Way Forward Courtney Rice Senior Programme Manager, US and the Americas Programme (0)20 7389 3298 Email Full Article
bey Beyond Lockdown: Africa’s Options for Responding to COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:42:52 +0000 21 April 2020 Ben Shepherd Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme Nina van der Mark Research Analyst, Global Health Programme @vdm_nina LinkedIn The continent’s enormous diversity means that there will be no one African experience of COVID-19, nor a uniform governmental response. But there are some common challenges across the continent, and a chance to get the response right. 2020-04-22-Africa-COVID-Dakar Dakar after the Interior Ministry announced compulsory wearing of masks in public and private services, shops and transport, under penalty of sanctions. Photo by SEYLLOU/AFP via Getty Images. African policymakers face a dilemma when it comes to COVID-19. The first hope is to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold at all, and many African states have significant experience of managing infectious disease outbreaks. The establishment of the Africa Centre for Disease Control highlights the hugely increased focus on public health in recent years.But capacities to track, test and isolate vary wildly, notably between neighbours with porous and poorly controlled borders and, in most cases, sustained national-level disease control is difficult. Initial clusters of COVID-19 cases are already established in many places, but a lack of testing capacity makes it hard to know the full extent of transmission.It is not obvious what African states should do as a response. Lack of information about COVID-19 means the proportion of asymptomatic or mild cases is not known, still less the ways in which this is influenced by human geography and demographics.Africa is an overwhelmingly young continent with a median age under 20. But it also faces chronic malnutrition, which may weaken immune responses, and infectious diseases such as malaria, TB and HIV are widespread which could worsen the impact of COVID-19, particularly if treatment for these diseases is interrupted.Complex and unknownUltimately, how all these factors interact with COVID-19 is complex and remains largely unknown. Africa may escape with a relatively light toll. Or it could be hit harder than anywhere else.What is clear, however, is that cost of simply following the rest of the world into lockdown could be high. Africa is relatively rural but has higher populations living in informal settlements than anywhere in the world. Many live in cramped and overcrowded accommodation without clean water or reliable electricity, making handwashing a challenge and working from home impossible.And the benefits appear limited. The goal of lockdowns in most places is not to eliminate the virus but to accept the economic and social costs as a price worth paying in order to ‘flatten the curve’ of infection and protect healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. But this logic does not hold when many of Africa’s healthcare systems are barely coping with pre-coronavirus levels of disease.Africa suffers in comparison to much of the rest of the world in terms of access to quality and affordable healthcare, critical care beds and specialist personnel. For example, in 2017, Nigeria had just 120 ICU beds for a country of 200 million, equating to 0.07 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 12.5 per 100,000 in Italy and 3.6 per 100,000 in China.The pandemic’s ruinous economic impacts could also be more acute for Africa than anywhere else. The continent is highly vulnerable to potential drops in output and relies heavily on demand from China and Europe. Many states are already facing sharply falling natural resource revenues, and investment, tourism and remittances will suffer - all on top of a high existing debt burden.Analysis by the World Bank shows that Africa will likely face its first recession in 25 years, with the continental economy contracting by up to 5.1% in 2020. Africa will have scant financial ammunition to use in the fight against COVID-19 with currencies weakening, food prices rising, local agri-food supply chains disrupted and food imports likely to decrease as well. A food security emergency appears a strong possibility.So, although several states have imposed national lockdowns and others closed major urban centres, lockdowns are difficult to manage and sustain, especially in places where the daily hustle of the informal sector or subsistence agriculture are the only means of survival and where the state has neither the trust of the population nor the capacity to replace lost earnings or meet basic needs.Of course, this is not simply a binary choice between lockdown or no lockdown - a range of intermediate options exist, such as some restriction on movement, curfews, shutting places of worship, banning only large gatherings, or closing pubs, schools and borders.A significant number of African states have so far taken this middle path. This will not prevent the virus from spreading nor, in all probability, be enough to ensure adequate healthcare for all Africans infected with COVID-19. But it may help slow the spread and buy invaluable time for African states and partners to prepare.How this time is used is therefore of paramount importance. Popular trust in the state is low in many African countries so strategies must empower communities, not alienate them. Africa’s experience of previous epidemics and long traditions of collective resilience and community-based crisis response - which persist in many places – are significant strengths.The right messages must be carried by the right messengers, and policies - including cash transfers and food distribution - implemented sensitively. If not, or if responses become militarized, public consent is unlikely to be sustained for long. Full Article
bey Turkey in 2020 and Beyond: What Lies Ahead for Turkish Politics? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2019 11:10:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 25 November 2019 - 12:30pm to 1:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Fadi Hakura, Manager, Turkey Project, Europe Programme, Chatham House Turkey witnessed some major developments over the last year. In August 2018, the dramatic Lira devaluation caused the Turkish economy to go into recession. In the 2019 local elections, which took place during the economic downturn, the Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP) mayoral candidates took control of Ankara and Istanbul after 25 years of dominance by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).The election results might lead to a rethink of the AKP leadership and consequences on Turkish politics will depend on Erdoğan’s interpretation of this reversal of his political fortune.Will this affect the long-standing alliance between AKP and MHP that has characterised Turkish foreign policy for the past few years? What impact will this have on both the domestic and international level? Finally, will Turkey’s recent incursion into Syria have lasting effect on the country’s alliances with other powers and its standing?In this context, the speaker will analyse the significance of these changes and the future trajectory of Turkish politics, economics and foreign policy. Event attributes Chatham House Rule Department/project Europe Programme, Turkey Project Alina Lyadova Europe Programme Coordinator Email Full Article
bey Understanding the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: US–China strategic competition, regional actors, and beyond By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 08 Jan 2020 21:20:01 +0000 6 November 2019 , Volume 96, Number 1 The first issue of International Affairs in 2020 explores the geopolitics of the 'Indo-Pacific' region. Read online Kai He and Mingjiang Li As a geographical concept, ‘Indo-Pacific’ has existed for decades. As a political and strategic concept, it has since 2010 gradually become established in the foreign policy lexicon of some countries, especially Australia, India, Japan and the United States. However, China seems to be reluctant to identify itself as part of the Indo-Pacific; Chinese leaders believe that the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy aims to contain China's rise. While the battle between the two geographical concepts ‘Indo-Pacific’ and ‘Asia–Pacific’ may be fairly easily settled in the future, US–China strategic competition has just begun. Will the Indo-Pacific become a battlefield for US–China rivalry? How will China cope with the US ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy? How will other regional actors respond to the US–China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific? What are the strategic implications of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ concept for regional order transformation? How will the Indo-Pacific be institutionalized, economically, politically and strategically? This article introduces the January 2020 special issue of International Affairs, which aims to address those questions, using both country-specific and regional perspectives. Seven articles focus on the policy responses of major players (Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan and ASEAN) to the US FOIP strategy and related US–China rivalry in the region. A further three articles examine the profound implications of Indo-Pacific dynamics for regional institution-building and for geopolitical and geo-economic architecture. Full Article
bey Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 01 Apr 2020 09:11:23 +0000 1 April 2020 Yasmin Afina Research Assistant, International Security Programme @afinayasmin LinkedIn Calum Inverarity Research Analyst and Coordinator, International Security Programme LinkedIn The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential of complex systems modelling for policymaking but it is crucial to also understand its limitations. GettyImages-1208425931.jpg A member of the media wearing a protective face mask works in Downing Street where Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating in central London, 27 March 2020. Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images. Complex systems models have played a significant role in informing and shaping the public health measures adopted by governments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, modelling carried out by a team at Imperial College London is widely reported to have driven the approach in the UK from a strategy of mitigation to one of suppression.Complex systems modelling will increasingly feed into policymaking by predicting a range of potential correlations, results and outcomes based on a set of parameters, assumptions, data and pre-defined interactions. It is already instrumental in developing risk mitigation and resilience measures to address and prepare for existential crises such as pandemics, prospects of a nuclear war, as well as climate change.The human factorIn the end, model-driven approaches must stand up to the test of real-life data. Modelling for policymaking must take into account a number of caveats and limitations. Models are developed to help answer specific questions, and their predictions will depend on the hypotheses and definitions set by the modellers, which are subject to their individual and collective biases and assumptions. For instance, the models developed by Imperial College came with the caveated assumption that a policy of social distancing for people over 70 will have a 75 per cent compliance rate. This assumption is based on the modellers’ own perceptions of demographics and society, and may not reflect all societal factors that could impact this compliance rate in real life, such as gender, age, ethnicity, genetic diversity, economic stability, as well as access to food, supplies and healthcare. This is why modelling benefits from a cognitively diverse team who bring a wide range of knowledge and understanding to the early creation of a model.The potential of artificial intelligenceMachine learning, or artificial intelligence (AI), has the potential to advance the capacity and accuracy of modelling techniques by identifying new patterns and interactions, and overcoming some of the limitations resulting from human assumptions and bias. Yet, increasing reliance on these techniques raises the issue of explainability. Policymakers need to be fully aware and understand the model, assumptions and input data behind any predictions and must be able to communicate this aspect of modelling in order to uphold democratic accountability and transparency in public decision-making.In addition, models using machine learning techniques require extensive amounts of data, which must also be of high quality and as free from bias as possible to ensure accuracy and address the issues at stake. Although technology may be used in the process (i.e. automated extraction and processing of information with big data), data is ultimately created, collected, aggregated and analysed by and for human users. Datasets will reflect the individual and collective biases and assumptions of those creating, collecting, processing and analysing this data. Algorithmic bias is inevitable, and it is essential that policy- and decision-makers are fully aware of how reliable the systems are, as well as their potential social implications.The age of distrustIncreasing use of emerging technologies for data- and evidence-based policymaking is taking place, paradoxically, in an era of growing mistrust towards expertise and experts, as infamously surmised by Michael Gove. Policymakers and subject-matter experts have faced increased public scrutiny of their findings and the resultant policies that they have been used to justify.This distrust and scepticism within public discourse has only been fuelled by an ever-increasing availability of diffuse sources of information, not all of which are verifiable and robust. This has caused tension between experts, policymakers and public, which has led to conflicts and uncertainty over what data and predictions can be trusted, and to what degree. This dynamic is exacerbated when considering that certain individuals may purposefully misappropriate, or simply misinterpret, data to support their argument or policies. Politicians are presently considered the least trusted professionals by the UK public, highlighting the importance of better and more effective communication between the scientific community, policymakers and the populations affected by policy decisions.Acknowledging limitationsWhile measures can and should be built in to improve the transparency and robustness of scientific models in order to counteract these common criticisms, it is important to acknowledge that there are limitations to the steps that can be taken. This is particularly the case when dealing with predictions of future events, which inherently involve degrees of uncertainty that cannot be fully accounted for by human or machine. As a result, if not carefully considered and communicated, the increased use of complex modelling in policymaking holds the potential to undermine and obfuscate the policymaking process, which may contribute towards significant mistakes being made, increased uncertainty, lack of trust in the models and in the political process and further disaffection of citizens.The potential contribution of complexity modelling to the work of policymakers is undeniable. However, it is imperative to appreciate the inner workings and limitations of these models, such as the biases that underpin their functioning and the uncertainties that they will not be fully capable of accounting for, in spite of their immense power. They must be tested against the data, again and again, as new information becomes available or there is a risk of scientific models becoming embroiled in partisan politicization and potentially weaponized for political purposes. It is therefore important not to consider these models as oracles, but instead as one of many contributions to the process of policymaking. Full Article
bey Jordan: Regime Survival and Politics Beyond the State By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 26 Jun 2018 00:00:00 +0100 Full Article
bey Net Zero and Beyond: What Role for Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 06 Jan 2020 13:55:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 23 January 2020 - 8:30am to 10:00am Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Richard King, Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham HouseChair: Duncan Brack, Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham House In the context of the feasibility of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, policymakers are beginning to pay more attention to options for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. A wide range of potential carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options are currently being discussed and modelled though the most prominent among them are bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation and reforestation.There are many reasons to question the reliance on BECCS assumed in the models including the carbon balances achievable, its substantial needs for land, water and other inputs and technically and economically viable carbon capture and storage technologies.This meeting will examine the potentials and challenges of BECCS in the context of other CDR and emissions abatement options. It will discuss the requisite policy and regulatory frameworks to minimize sustainability and socio-political risks of CDR approaches while also avoiding overshooting climate goals.Attendance at this event is by invitation only. Event attributes Chatham House Rule Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Sustainable Transitions Series Chloé Prendleloup Email Full Article
bey Net Zero and Beyond: What Role for Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 29 Jan 2020 11:51:45 +0000 29 January 2020 Policymakers are in danger of sleepwalking into ineffective carbon dioxide removal solutions in the quest to tackle climate change. This paper warns against overreliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Read online Download PDF Duncan Brack Associate Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme @DuncanBrack Google Scholar Richard King Senior Research Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Programme LinkedIn Reaching Net Zero: Does BECCS Work? Policymakers can be influenced by ineffective carbon dioxide removal solutions in the quest to tackle climate change. This animation explores the risks of using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). SummaryCurrent climate efforts are not progressing quickly enough to prevent the world from overshooting the global emissions targets set in the Paris Agreement; accordingly, attention is turning increasingly to options for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – ‘carbon dioxide removal’ (CDR). Alongside afforestation and reforestation, the main option under discussion is bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): processes through which the carbon emissions from burning biomass for energy are captured before release into the atmosphere and stored in underground reservoirs.This pre-eminent status is not, however, based on a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility and impacts of BECCS. In reality, BECCS has many drawbacks.Models generally assume that biomass for energy is inherently carbon-neutral (and thus that BECCS, by capturing and storing the emissions from combustion, is carbon-negative), but in reality this is not a valid assumption.On top of this, the deployment of BECCS at the scales assumed in most models would consume land on a scale comparable to half that currently taken up by global cropland, entailing massive land-use change, potentially endangering food security and biodiversity. There is also significant doubt about the likely energy output of BECCS solutions.BECCS may still have some role to play in strategies for CDR, depending mainly on the feedstock used; but it should be evaluated on the same basis as other CDR options, such as nature-based solutions or direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Analysis should take full account of carbon balances over time, the requirements of each CDR option in terms of demand for land, water and other inputs, and the consequences of that demand.There is an urgent need for policymakers to engage with these debates. The danger at the moment is that policymakers are ‘sleepwalking towards BECCS’ simply because most models incorporate it – or, almost as bad, it may be that they are simply ignoring the need for any meaningful action on CDR as a whole. Department/project Energy, Environment and Resources Programme, Bioenergy, Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) Full Article
bey Episode 28: The Place Beyond the Pines/From Up On Poppy Hill By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Fri, 19 Apr 2013 06:42:00 +0000 The Place Beyond the Pines ReviewFrom Up On Poppy Hill ReviewMovie Homework: Beasts of the Southern Wild/ShameWhat We Watched: Evil Dead, Game of Thrones, The Staircase & A Dangerous MethodYou can download the episode here. (right click to save) Next Episode: Oblivion/Trance Full Article
bey Beyond Lockdown: Africa’s Options for Responding to COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:42:52 +0000 21 April 2020 Ben Shepherd Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme Nina van der Mark Research Analyst, Global Health Programme @vdm_nina LinkedIn The continent’s enormous diversity means that there will be no one African experience of COVID-19, nor a uniform governmental response. But there are some common challenges across the continent, and a chance to get the response right. 2020-04-22-Africa-COVID-Dakar Dakar after the Interior Ministry announced compulsory wearing of masks in public and private services, shops and transport, under penalty of sanctions. Photo by SEYLLOU/AFP via Getty Images. African policymakers face a dilemma when it comes to COVID-19. The first hope is to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold at all, and many African states have significant experience of managing infectious disease outbreaks. The establishment of the Africa Centre for Disease Control highlights the hugely increased focus on public health in recent years.But capacities to track, test and isolate vary wildly, notably between neighbours with porous and poorly controlled borders and, in most cases, sustained national-level disease control is difficult. Initial clusters of COVID-19 cases are already established in many places, but a lack of testing capacity makes it hard to know the full extent of transmission.It is not obvious what African states should do as a response. Lack of information about COVID-19 means the proportion of asymptomatic or mild cases is not known, still less the ways in which this is influenced by human geography and demographics.Africa is an overwhelmingly young continent with a median age under 20. But it also faces chronic malnutrition, which may weaken immune responses, and infectious diseases such as malaria, TB and HIV are widespread which could worsen the impact of COVID-19, particularly if treatment for these diseases is interrupted.Complex and unknownUltimately, how all these factors interact with COVID-19 is complex and remains largely unknown. Africa may escape with a relatively light toll. Or it could be hit harder than anywhere else.What is clear, however, is that cost of simply following the rest of the world into lockdown could be high. Africa is relatively rural but has higher populations living in informal settlements than anywhere in the world. Many live in cramped and overcrowded accommodation without clean water or reliable electricity, making handwashing a challenge and working from home impossible.And the benefits appear limited. The goal of lockdowns in most places is not to eliminate the virus but to accept the economic and social costs as a price worth paying in order to ‘flatten the curve’ of infection and protect healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. But this logic does not hold when many of Africa’s healthcare systems are barely coping with pre-coronavirus levels of disease.Africa suffers in comparison to much of the rest of the world in terms of access to quality and affordable healthcare, critical care beds and specialist personnel. For example, in 2017, Nigeria had just 120 ICU beds for a country of 200 million, equating to 0.07 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 12.5 per 100,000 in Italy and 3.6 per 100,000 in China.The pandemic’s ruinous economic impacts could also be more acute for Africa than anywhere else. The continent is highly vulnerable to potential drops in output and relies heavily on demand from China and Europe. Many states are already facing sharply falling natural resource revenues, and investment, tourism and remittances will suffer - all on top of a high existing debt burden.Analysis by the World Bank shows that Africa will likely face its first recession in 25 years, with the continental economy contracting by up to 5.1% in 2020. Africa will have scant financial ammunition to use in the fight against COVID-19 with currencies weakening, food prices rising, local agri-food supply chains disrupted and food imports likely to decrease as well. A food security emergency appears a strong possibility.So, although several states have imposed national lockdowns and others closed major urban centres, lockdowns are difficult to manage and sustain, especially in places where the daily hustle of the informal sector or subsistence agriculture are the only means of survival and where the state has neither the trust of the population nor the capacity to replace lost earnings or meet basic needs.Of course, this is not simply a binary choice between lockdown or no lockdown - a range of intermediate options exist, such as some restriction on movement, curfews, shutting places of worship, banning only large gatherings, or closing pubs, schools and borders.A significant number of African states have so far taken this middle path. This will not prevent the virus from spreading nor, in all probability, be enough to ensure adequate healthcare for all Africans infected with COVID-19. But it may help slow the spread and buy invaluable time for African states and partners to prepare.How this time is used is therefore of paramount importance. Popular trust in the state is low in many African countries so strategies must empower communities, not alienate them. Africa’s experience of previous epidemics and long traditions of collective resilience and community-based crisis response - which persist in many places – are significant strengths.The right messages must be carried by the right messengers, and policies - including cash transfers and food distribution - implemented sensitively. If not, or if responses become militarized, public consent is unlikely to be sustained for long. Full Article
bey Membrane domains beyond the reach of microscopy [Commentaries] By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: 2020-05-01T00:05:27-07:00 Full Article
bey Secrecy, spies and the global South: intelligence studies beyond the 'Five Eyes' alliance By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2019 09:08:36 +0000 6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6 Zakia Shiraz and Richard J. Aldrich Read online The study of secrecy and spies remain subjects dominated by Anglo-American experiences. In recent years there has been some effort to refocus the lens of research upon ‘intelligence elsewhere’, including the global South. This is partly because of intense interest in the Arab Spring and ‘managed democracy’, placing a wider range of secret services under the spotlight. However, the approach to research is still dominated by concepts and methods derived from studying the English-speaking states of the ‘Five Eyes’ alliance and their European outriders. This article calls for a re-examination of research strategies for Intelligence Studies and for those theorizing surveillance, suggesting that both fields have much to learn from area studies and development studies, especially in the realm of research practice and ethics. If the growing number of academics specializing in intelligence genuinely wish to move forward and examine the global South they will need to rethink their tool-kit and learn from other disciplines. We suggest there is a rich tradition to draw upon. Full Article
bey Understanding the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: US–China strategic competition, regional actors, and beyond By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 08 Jan 2020 21:20:01 +0000 6 November 2019 , Volume 96, Number 1 The first issue of International Affairs in 2020 explores the geopolitics of the 'Indo-Pacific' region. Read online Kai He and Mingjiang Li As a geographical concept, ‘Indo-Pacific’ has existed for decades. As a political and strategic concept, it has since 2010 gradually become established in the foreign policy lexicon of some countries, especially Australia, India, Japan and the United States. However, China seems to be reluctant to identify itself as part of the Indo-Pacific; Chinese leaders believe that the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy aims to contain China's rise. While the battle between the two geographical concepts ‘Indo-Pacific’ and ‘Asia–Pacific’ may be fairly easily settled in the future, US–China strategic competition has just begun. Will the Indo-Pacific become a battlefield for US–China rivalry? How will China cope with the US ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy? How will other regional actors respond to the US–China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific? What are the strategic implications of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ concept for regional order transformation? How will the Indo-Pacific be institutionalized, economically, politically and strategically? This article introduces the January 2020 special issue of International Affairs, which aims to address those questions, using both country-specific and regional perspectives. Seven articles focus on the policy responses of major players (Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan and ASEAN) to the US FOIP strategy and related US–China rivalry in the region. A further three articles examine the profound implications of Indo-Pacific dynamics for regional institution-building and for geopolitical and geo-economic architecture. Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by the Executive Secretary, Mr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, at the UNEP Informal Strategic Consultation on Sustainability beyond 2010: Perspectives from Experiences, Nairobi, 15 February 2009. By www.cbd.int Published On :: Sun, 15 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by Mr Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, on the occasion of the High-Level Conference: Visions for Biodiversity beyond 2010: People, Ecosytem Services and the Climate Crisis, 8 September 2009 By www.cbd.int Published On :: Tue, 08 Sep 2009 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary, at the Expert Workshop on Scientific and Technical Guidance on the Use of Biogeographic Classification Systems and Identification of Marine Areas in Need of Protection beyond National Jurisdictio By www.cbd.int Published On :: Tue, 29 Sep 2009 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by Mr. Ahmed Djoghlaf, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity, on the occasion of the Expert Workshop on Scientific and Technical Aspects relevant to Environmental Impact Assessment in Marine Areas beyond Nationa By www.cbd.int Published On :: Wed, 18 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: The Issue Management Group (IMG) on 2010 biodiversity targets and beyond, established under the Environmental Management Group (EMG) of the United Nations is preparing a UN system wide report that may help inform the formulation of future biodiv By www.cbd.int Published On :: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD Press Release: Message from Nagoya to Cancun and beyond: A sustainable future is founded on climate-resilient ecosystems and communities. By www.cbd.int Published On :: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by the CBD Executive Secretary on the occasion of the fifth meeting of the Ad Hoc Open-ended Informal Working Group to study issues relating to the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity beyond areas of nationa By www.cbd.int Published On :: Mon, 07 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by the CBD Executive Secretary, on the occasion of the United Nations Ad Hoc Open-ended Informal Working Group to Study Issues Relating to the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity Beyond Areas of National Jur By www.cbd.int Published On :: Tue, 01 Apr 2014 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement by the CBD Executive Secretary on the occasion of the United Nations Ad Hoc Open-ended Informal Working Group to Study Issues Relating to the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity Beyond Areas of National Juri By www.cbd.int Published On :: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey CBD News: Statement of Mr. Braulio F. De Souza Dias, Executive Secretary on the Occasion of Beyond Enforcement: Communities, Governance, Incentives And Sustainable Use in Combating Illegal Wildlife Trade, 26 February 2015, Muldersdrift, South Africa By www.cbd.int Published On :: Thu, 26 Feb 2015 00:00:00 GMT Full Article
bey The Pathophysiology of Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes: Beyond BloodPressure and Lipids By spectrum.diabetesjournals.org Published On :: 2008-07-01 Betsy B. DokkenJul 1, 2008; 21:160-165From Research to Practice/Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Full Article
bey Glucose Metabolism and Regulation: Beyond Insulin and Glucagon By spectrum.diabetesjournals.org Published On :: 2004-07-01 Stephen L. AronoffJul 1, 2004; 17:183-190Feature Articles Full Article
bey Evidence of Late Pleistocene human colonization of isolated islands beyond Wallace's Line By www.eurekalert.org Published On :: Wed, 29 Apr 2020 00:00:00 EDT (Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History) What makes our species unique compared to other hominins? High profile genetic, fossil and material culture discoveries present scientists working in the Late Pleistocene with an ever-more complex picture of interactions between early hominin populations. One distinctive characteristic of Homo sapiens, however, appears to be its global distribution. Exploring how Homo sapiens colonized most of the world's continents in a relatively short period could reveal the exceptional capacities of humans relative to other hominins. Full Article
bey Public would obey major changes to antibiotic advice, research shows By www.eurekalert.org Published On :: Wed, 06 May 2020 00:00:00 EDT (University of Exeter) The public would comply with major changes to medical advice - but would then be less likely to follow other new guidelines in the future, research shows. Full Article
bey Glucose Metabolism and Regulation: Beyond Insulin and Glucagon By spectrum.diabetesjournals.org Published On :: 2004-07-01 Stephen L. AronoffJul 1, 2004; 17:183-190Feature Articles Full Article
bey Beyond CARES: Economist Glenn Hubbard on Government Response to COVID-19 By www8.gsb.columbia.edu Published On :: Fri, 08 May 2020 00:00:00 -0400 Hubbard asks: Can we design a more effective plan, in case of a next time? Full Article
bey Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 01 Apr 2020 09:11:23 +0000 1 April 2020 Yasmin Afina Research Assistant, International Security Programme @afinayasmin LinkedIn Calum Inverarity Research Analyst and Coordinator, International Security Programme LinkedIn The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential of complex systems modelling for policymaking but it is crucial to also understand its limitations. GettyImages-1208425931.jpg A member of the media wearing a protective face mask works in Downing Street where Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating in central London, 27 March 2020. Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images. Complex systems models have played a significant role in informing and shaping the public health measures adopted by governments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, modelling carried out by a team at Imperial College London is widely reported to have driven the approach in the UK from a strategy of mitigation to one of suppression.Complex systems modelling will increasingly feed into policymaking by predicting a range of potential correlations, results and outcomes based on a set of parameters, assumptions, data and pre-defined interactions. It is already instrumental in developing risk mitigation and resilience measures to address and prepare for existential crises such as pandemics, prospects of a nuclear war, as well as climate change.The human factorIn the end, model-driven approaches must stand up to the test of real-life data. Modelling for policymaking must take into account a number of caveats and limitations. Models are developed to help answer specific questions, and their predictions will depend on the hypotheses and definitions set by the modellers, which are subject to their individual and collective biases and assumptions. For instance, the models developed by Imperial College came with the caveated assumption that a policy of social distancing for people over 70 will have a 75 per cent compliance rate. This assumption is based on the modellers’ own perceptions of demographics and society, and may not reflect all societal factors that could impact this compliance rate in real life, such as gender, age, ethnicity, genetic diversity, economic stability, as well as access to food, supplies and healthcare. This is why modelling benefits from a cognitively diverse team who bring a wide range of knowledge and understanding to the early creation of a model.The potential of artificial intelligenceMachine learning, or artificial intelligence (AI), has the potential to advance the capacity and accuracy of modelling techniques by identifying new patterns and interactions, and overcoming some of the limitations resulting from human assumptions and bias. Yet, increasing reliance on these techniques raises the issue of explainability. Policymakers need to be fully aware and understand the model, assumptions and input data behind any predictions and must be able to communicate this aspect of modelling in order to uphold democratic accountability and transparency in public decision-making.In addition, models using machine learning techniques require extensive amounts of data, which must also be of high quality and as free from bias as possible to ensure accuracy and address the issues at stake. Although technology may be used in the process (i.e. automated extraction and processing of information with big data), data is ultimately created, collected, aggregated and analysed by and for human users. Datasets will reflect the individual and collective biases and assumptions of those creating, collecting, processing and analysing this data. Algorithmic bias is inevitable, and it is essential that policy- and decision-makers are fully aware of how reliable the systems are, as well as their potential social implications.The age of distrustIncreasing use of emerging technologies for data- and evidence-based policymaking is taking place, paradoxically, in an era of growing mistrust towards expertise and experts, as infamously surmised by Michael Gove. Policymakers and subject-matter experts have faced increased public scrutiny of their findings and the resultant policies that they have been used to justify.This distrust and scepticism within public discourse has only been fuelled by an ever-increasing availability of diffuse sources of information, not all of which are verifiable and robust. This has caused tension between experts, policymakers and public, which has led to conflicts and uncertainty over what data and predictions can be trusted, and to what degree. This dynamic is exacerbated when considering that certain individuals may purposefully misappropriate, or simply misinterpret, data to support their argument or policies. Politicians are presently considered the least trusted professionals by the UK public, highlighting the importance of better and more effective communication between the scientific community, policymakers and the populations affected by policy decisions.Acknowledging limitationsWhile measures can and should be built in to improve the transparency and robustness of scientific models in order to counteract these common criticisms, it is important to acknowledge that there are limitations to the steps that can be taken. This is particularly the case when dealing with predictions of future events, which inherently involve degrees of uncertainty that cannot be fully accounted for by human or machine. As a result, if not carefully considered and communicated, the increased use of complex modelling in policymaking holds the potential to undermine and obfuscate the policymaking process, which may contribute towards significant mistakes being made, increased uncertainty, lack of trust in the models and in the political process and further disaffection of citizens.The potential contribution of complexity modelling to the work of policymakers is undeniable. However, it is imperative to appreciate the inner workings and limitations of these models, such as the biases that underpin their functioning and the uncertainties that they will not be fully capable of accounting for, in spite of their immense power. They must be tested against the data, again and again, as new information becomes available or there is a risk of scientific models becoming embroiled in partisan politicization and potentially weaponized for political purposes. It is therefore important not to consider these models as oracles, but instead as one of many contributions to the process of policymaking. Full Article
bey Inclusive Growth and Job Creation in Africa: The Outlook for 2019 and Beyond By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:25:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 30 September 2019 - 1:30pm to 2:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director, African Department, International Monetary FundChair: Elizabeth Donnelly, Deputy Head and Research Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House The IMF projects real GDP growth of 3.3 per cent in 2019 for sub-Saharan Africa but there is a mixed picture across the continent with growth in Mauritania, Senegal, Ethiopia and Rwanda outstripping projected growth rates for South Africa and Nigeria, for example, while a handful of economies seek to emerge from crisis. Yet, as is increasingly well documented, even strong growth has not delivered lasting socio-economic transformation in many contexts. And that most pressing of needs – job creation including to accommodate, in the next 15 years, an increase in the working age population greater than that in the rest of the world combined – remains a pressing concern for governments and societies. With populations continuing to grow at faster rates than economic growth, and a significant proportion of jobs outside agriculture being in the informal sector, investment in formal labour markets is crucial to creating inclusive economic growth. At this event, the International Monetary Fund’s Africa Director, Abebe Aemro Selassie will discuss the outlook for sub-Saharan African economies in 2019 and progress towards achieving inclusive economic growth to accommodate future demographic change. Attendance at this event is by invitation only. Department/project Africa Programme, Inclusive Economic Growth, Governance and Technology Yusuf Hassan Parliamentary and Media Outreach Assistant, Africa Programme +44 (0) 20 7314 3645 Email Full Article
bey Secrecy, spies and the global South: intelligence studies beyond the 'Five Eyes' alliance By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 06 Nov 2019 09:08:36 +0000 6 November 2019 , Volume 95, Number 6 Zakia Shiraz and Richard J. Aldrich Read online The study of secrecy and spies remain subjects dominated by Anglo-American experiences. In recent years there has been some effort to refocus the lens of research upon ‘intelligence elsewhere’, including the global South. This is partly because of intense interest in the Arab Spring and ‘managed democracy’, placing a wider range of secret services under the spotlight. However, the approach to research is still dominated by concepts and methods derived from studying the English-speaking states of the ‘Five Eyes’ alliance and their European outriders. This article calls for a re-examination of research strategies for Intelligence Studies and for those theorizing surveillance, suggesting that both fields have much to learn from area studies and development studies, especially in the realm of research practice and ethics. If the growing number of academics specializing in intelligence genuinely wish to move forward and examine the global South they will need to rethink their tool-kit and learn from other disciplines. We suggest there is a rich tradition to draw upon. Full Article
bey Côte d'Ivoire’s 2020 Elections and Beyond: Ensuring Stability and Inclusion By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Thu, 16 Jan 2020 10:10:01 +0000 Research Event 21 January 2020 - 11:30am to 12:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants HE Alassane Ouattara, President, Republic of Côte d'IvoireChair: Bob Dewar CMG, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House Please note, the second video on this page is from an interview with the president outside the event.HE Alassane Ouattara, president of Côte d'Ivoire, discusses governance and domestic priorities ahead of and beyond elections, as well as efforts to sustain stability and support an inclusive electoral process.Presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer and the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), will be held on 31st October 2020 against a backdrop of marked political dynamism in the country and wider region.Possible constitutional amendments and a newly announced major reform of the currency regime are among significant issues drawing focus.A credible and inclusive electoral process is critical for the improvement of socio-development outcomes and for the maintenance of a positive investment environment.But instability remains a serious risk and the stakes are high for Côte d'Ivoire and the wider region. Department/project Africa Programme, Elections and political systems, West Africa Full Article
bey POSTPONED: Africa, Japan and the UK: Emerging Partnerships Beyond Summits By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Fri, 21 Feb 2020 13:00:02 +0000 Research Event 17 March 2020 - 9:30am to 1:15pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Agendapdf | 133.11 KB Event participants HE Nabil Ben Khedher, Ambassador of Tunisia to the United KingdomProfessor Naohiro Kitano, Visiting Fellow, Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute (JICA-RI); Professor, Waseda UniversityTaku Miyazaki, Deputy Director General, Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO) LondonSerge Mouangue, Founder and Art Director, WAfricaNorio Suzuki, Senior Strategist, BBOXXHE Professor Mohammed Gana Yisa, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to Japan; Chairman, African Diplomatic Corps in Tokyo (ADC) TICAD CommitteeChairs:Dr Champa Patel, Director, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham HouseDr Alex Vines OBE, Managing Director, Ethics, Risk & Resilience; Director, Africa Programme Since Japan established its Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) in 1993, an increasing number of summits for African engagement have appeared across the Asia-Pacific region. TICAD VII, held on 28-30 August 2019 in Yokohama, sought to strengthen partnerships between Japan and Africa in three main areas: technical cooperation; business and women’s entrepreneurship; and next generation and people-to-people connectivity.The UK-Africa Investment Summit held in January 2020 highlighted similar themes, with an emphasis on investing to generate sustainable growth and create jobs. Common interests and goals among different African countries, Japan and the UK bring opportunities for trilateral cooperation.This event will examine how collaboration between African countries, Japan and the UK can help to more effectively achieve sustainable growth, business development and job creation.PLEASE NOTE THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Department/project Africa Programme, Foreign Relations and Africa’s Agency in the International System, Inclusive Economic Growth, Governance and Technology Hanna Desta Programme Assistant, Africa Programme Email Full Article
bey Beyond Lockdown: Africa’s Options for Responding to COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:42:52 +0000 21 April 2020 Ben Shepherd Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme Nina van der Mark Research Analyst, Global Health Programme @vdm_nina LinkedIn The continent’s enormous diversity means that there will be no one African experience of COVID-19, nor a uniform governmental response. But there are some common challenges across the continent, and a chance to get the response right. 2020-04-22-Africa-COVID-Dakar Dakar after the Interior Ministry announced compulsory wearing of masks in public and private services, shops and transport, under penalty of sanctions. Photo by SEYLLOU/AFP via Getty Images. African policymakers face a dilemma when it comes to COVID-19. The first hope is to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold at all, and many African states have significant experience of managing infectious disease outbreaks. The establishment of the Africa Centre for Disease Control highlights the hugely increased focus on public health in recent years.But capacities to track, test and isolate vary wildly, notably between neighbours with porous and poorly controlled borders and, in most cases, sustained national-level disease control is difficult. Initial clusters of COVID-19 cases are already established in many places, but a lack of testing capacity makes it hard to know the full extent of transmission.It is not obvious what African states should do as a response. Lack of information about COVID-19 means the proportion of asymptomatic or mild cases is not known, still less the ways in which this is influenced by human geography and demographics.Africa is an overwhelmingly young continent with a median age under 20. But it also faces chronic malnutrition, which may weaken immune responses, and infectious diseases such as malaria, TB and HIV are widespread which could worsen the impact of COVID-19, particularly if treatment for these diseases is interrupted.Complex and unknownUltimately, how all these factors interact with COVID-19 is complex and remains largely unknown. Africa may escape with a relatively light toll. Or it could be hit harder than anywhere else.What is clear, however, is that cost of simply following the rest of the world into lockdown could be high. Africa is relatively rural but has higher populations living in informal settlements than anywhere in the world. Many live in cramped and overcrowded accommodation without clean water or reliable electricity, making handwashing a challenge and working from home impossible.And the benefits appear limited. The goal of lockdowns in most places is not to eliminate the virus but to accept the economic and social costs as a price worth paying in order to ‘flatten the curve’ of infection and protect healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. But this logic does not hold when many of Africa’s healthcare systems are barely coping with pre-coronavirus levels of disease.Africa suffers in comparison to much of the rest of the world in terms of access to quality and affordable healthcare, critical care beds and specialist personnel. For example, in 2017, Nigeria had just 120 ICU beds for a country of 200 million, equating to 0.07 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 12.5 per 100,000 in Italy and 3.6 per 100,000 in China.The pandemic’s ruinous economic impacts could also be more acute for Africa than anywhere else. The continent is highly vulnerable to potential drops in output and relies heavily on demand from China and Europe. Many states are already facing sharply falling natural resource revenues, and investment, tourism and remittances will suffer - all on top of a high existing debt burden.Analysis by the World Bank shows that Africa will likely face its first recession in 25 years, with the continental economy contracting by up to 5.1% in 2020. Africa will have scant financial ammunition to use in the fight against COVID-19 with currencies weakening, food prices rising, local agri-food supply chains disrupted and food imports likely to decrease as well. A food security emergency appears a strong possibility.So, although several states have imposed national lockdowns and others closed major urban centres, lockdowns are difficult to manage and sustain, especially in places where the daily hustle of the informal sector or subsistence agriculture are the only means of survival and where the state has neither the trust of the population nor the capacity to replace lost earnings or meet basic needs.Of course, this is not simply a binary choice between lockdown or no lockdown - a range of intermediate options exist, such as some restriction on movement, curfews, shutting places of worship, banning only large gatherings, or closing pubs, schools and borders.A significant number of African states have so far taken this middle path. This will not prevent the virus from spreading nor, in all probability, be enough to ensure adequate healthcare for all Africans infected with COVID-19. But it may help slow the spread and buy invaluable time for African states and partners to prepare.How this time is used is therefore of paramount importance. Popular trust in the state is low in many African countries so strategies must empower communities, not alienate them. Africa’s experience of previous epidemics and long traditions of collective resilience and community-based crisis response - which persist in many places – are significant strengths.The right messages must be carried by the right messengers, and policies - including cash transfers and food distribution - implemented sensitively. If not, or if responses become militarized, public consent is unlikely to be sustained for long. Full Article
bey Membrane domains beyond the reach of microscopy By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: 2020-05-01 Ilya LeventalMay 1, 2020; 61:592-594Commentary Full Article
bey Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Wed, 01 Apr 2020 09:11:23 +0000 1 April 2020 Yasmin Afina Research Assistant, International Security Programme @afinayasmin LinkedIn Calum Inverarity Research Analyst and Coordinator, International Security Programme LinkedIn The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the potential of complex systems modelling for policymaking but it is crucial to also understand its limitations. GettyImages-1208425931.jpg A member of the media wearing a protective face mask works in Downing Street where Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson is self-isolating in central London, 27 March 2020. Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images. Complex systems models have played a significant role in informing and shaping the public health measures adopted by governments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, modelling carried out by a team at Imperial College London is widely reported to have driven the approach in the UK from a strategy of mitigation to one of suppression.Complex systems modelling will increasingly feed into policymaking by predicting a range of potential correlations, results and outcomes based on a set of parameters, assumptions, data and pre-defined interactions. It is already instrumental in developing risk mitigation and resilience measures to address and prepare for existential crises such as pandemics, prospects of a nuclear war, as well as climate change.The human factorIn the end, model-driven approaches must stand up to the test of real-life data. Modelling for policymaking must take into account a number of caveats and limitations. Models are developed to help answer specific questions, and their predictions will depend on the hypotheses and definitions set by the modellers, which are subject to their individual and collective biases and assumptions. For instance, the models developed by Imperial College came with the caveated assumption that a policy of social distancing for people over 70 will have a 75 per cent compliance rate. This assumption is based on the modellers’ own perceptions of demographics and society, and may not reflect all societal factors that could impact this compliance rate in real life, such as gender, age, ethnicity, genetic diversity, economic stability, as well as access to food, supplies and healthcare. This is why modelling benefits from a cognitively diverse team who bring a wide range of knowledge and understanding to the early creation of a model.The potential of artificial intelligenceMachine learning, or artificial intelligence (AI), has the potential to advance the capacity and accuracy of modelling techniques by identifying new patterns and interactions, and overcoming some of the limitations resulting from human assumptions and bias. Yet, increasing reliance on these techniques raises the issue of explainability. Policymakers need to be fully aware and understand the model, assumptions and input data behind any predictions and must be able to communicate this aspect of modelling in order to uphold democratic accountability and transparency in public decision-making.In addition, models using machine learning techniques require extensive amounts of data, which must also be of high quality and as free from bias as possible to ensure accuracy and address the issues at stake. Although technology may be used in the process (i.e. automated extraction and processing of information with big data), data is ultimately created, collected, aggregated and analysed by and for human users. Datasets will reflect the individual and collective biases and assumptions of those creating, collecting, processing and analysing this data. Algorithmic bias is inevitable, and it is essential that policy- and decision-makers are fully aware of how reliable the systems are, as well as their potential social implications.The age of distrustIncreasing use of emerging technologies for data- and evidence-based policymaking is taking place, paradoxically, in an era of growing mistrust towards expertise and experts, as infamously surmised by Michael Gove. Policymakers and subject-matter experts have faced increased public scrutiny of their findings and the resultant policies that they have been used to justify.This distrust and scepticism within public discourse has only been fuelled by an ever-increasing availability of diffuse sources of information, not all of which are verifiable and robust. This has caused tension between experts, policymakers and public, which has led to conflicts and uncertainty over what data and predictions can be trusted, and to what degree. This dynamic is exacerbated when considering that certain individuals may purposefully misappropriate, or simply misinterpret, data to support their argument or policies. Politicians are presently considered the least trusted professionals by the UK public, highlighting the importance of better and more effective communication between the scientific community, policymakers and the populations affected by policy decisions.Acknowledging limitationsWhile measures can and should be built in to improve the transparency and robustness of scientific models in order to counteract these common criticisms, it is important to acknowledge that there are limitations to the steps that can be taken. This is particularly the case when dealing with predictions of future events, which inherently involve degrees of uncertainty that cannot be fully accounted for by human or machine. As a result, if not carefully considered and communicated, the increased use of complex modelling in policymaking holds the potential to undermine and obfuscate the policymaking process, which may contribute towards significant mistakes being made, increased uncertainty, lack of trust in the models and in the political process and further disaffection of citizens.The potential contribution of complexity modelling to the work of policymakers is undeniable. However, it is imperative to appreciate the inner workings and limitations of these models, such as the biases that underpin their functioning and the uncertainties that they will not be fully capable of accounting for, in spite of their immense power. They must be tested against the data, again and again, as new information becomes available or there is a risk of scientific models becoming embroiled in partisan politicization and potentially weaponized for political purposes. It is therefore important not to consider these models as oracles, but instead as one of many contributions to the process of policymaking. Full Article
bey Beyond Lockdown: Africa’s Options for Responding to COVID-19 By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 21 Apr 2020 15:42:52 +0000 21 April 2020 Ben Shepherd Consulting Fellow, Africa Programme Nina van der Mark Research Analyst, Global Health Programme @vdm_nina LinkedIn The continent’s enormous diversity means that there will be no one African experience of COVID-19, nor a uniform governmental response. But there are some common challenges across the continent, and a chance to get the response right. 2020-04-22-Africa-COVID-Dakar Dakar after the Interior Ministry announced compulsory wearing of masks in public and private services, shops and transport, under penalty of sanctions. Photo by SEYLLOU/AFP via Getty Images. African policymakers face a dilemma when it comes to COVID-19. The first hope is to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold at all, and many African states have significant experience of managing infectious disease outbreaks. The establishment of the Africa Centre for Disease Control highlights the hugely increased focus on public health in recent years.But capacities to track, test and isolate vary wildly, notably between neighbours with porous and poorly controlled borders and, in most cases, sustained national-level disease control is difficult. Initial clusters of COVID-19 cases are already established in many places, but a lack of testing capacity makes it hard to know the full extent of transmission.It is not obvious what African states should do as a response. Lack of information about COVID-19 means the proportion of asymptomatic or mild cases is not known, still less the ways in which this is influenced by human geography and demographics.Africa is an overwhelmingly young continent with a median age under 20. But it also faces chronic malnutrition, which may weaken immune responses, and infectious diseases such as malaria, TB and HIV are widespread which could worsen the impact of COVID-19, particularly if treatment for these diseases is interrupted.Complex and unknownUltimately, how all these factors interact with COVID-19 is complex and remains largely unknown. Africa may escape with a relatively light toll. Or it could be hit harder than anywhere else.What is clear, however, is that cost of simply following the rest of the world into lockdown could be high. Africa is relatively rural but has higher populations living in informal settlements than anywhere in the world. Many live in cramped and overcrowded accommodation without clean water or reliable electricity, making handwashing a challenge and working from home impossible.And the benefits appear limited. The goal of lockdowns in most places is not to eliminate the virus but to accept the economic and social costs as a price worth paying in order to ‘flatten the curve’ of infection and protect healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. But this logic does not hold when many of Africa’s healthcare systems are barely coping with pre-coronavirus levels of disease.Africa suffers in comparison to much of the rest of the world in terms of access to quality and affordable healthcare, critical care beds and specialist personnel. For example, in 2017, Nigeria had just 120 ICU beds for a country of 200 million, equating to 0.07 per 100,000 inhabitants compared to 12.5 per 100,000 in Italy and 3.6 per 100,000 in China.The pandemic’s ruinous economic impacts could also be more acute for Africa than anywhere else. The continent is highly vulnerable to potential drops in output and relies heavily on demand from China and Europe. Many states are already facing sharply falling natural resource revenues, and investment, tourism and remittances will suffer - all on top of a high existing debt burden.Analysis by the World Bank shows that Africa will likely face its first recession in 25 years, with the continental economy contracting by up to 5.1% in 2020. Africa will have scant financial ammunition to use in the fight against COVID-19 with currencies weakening, food prices rising, local agri-food supply chains disrupted and food imports likely to decrease as well. A food security emergency appears a strong possibility.So, although several states have imposed national lockdowns and others closed major urban centres, lockdowns are difficult to manage and sustain, especially in places where the daily hustle of the informal sector or subsistence agriculture are the only means of survival and where the state has neither the trust of the population nor the capacity to replace lost earnings or meet basic needs.Of course, this is not simply a binary choice between lockdown or no lockdown - a range of intermediate options exist, such as some restriction on movement, curfews, shutting places of worship, banning only large gatherings, or closing pubs, schools and borders.A significant number of African states have so far taken this middle path. This will not prevent the virus from spreading nor, in all probability, be enough to ensure adequate healthcare for all Africans infected with COVID-19. But it may help slow the spread and buy invaluable time for African states and partners to prepare.How this time is used is therefore of paramount importance. Popular trust in the state is low in many African countries so strategies must empower communities, not alienate them. Africa’s experience of previous epidemics and long traditions of collective resilience and community-based crisis response - which persist in many places – are significant strengths.The right messages must be carried by the right messengers, and policies - including cash transfers and food distribution - implemented sensitively. If not, or if responses become militarized, public consent is unlikely to be sustained for long. Full Article
bey Ukraine Beyond Donbas: Is Social Cohesion at Risk? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 11 Feb 2020 14:20:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 28 February 2020 - 9:30am to 1:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Agendapdf | 121.04 KB Event participants Iryna Brunova-Kalisetska, Independent Researcher, Trainer and Dialogue FacilitatorMaxim Ieligulashvili, Independent Researcher, Trainer and Dialogue FacilitatorVolodymyr Lupatsy, Co-founder, National Platform on Dialogue for Peace and Secure Reintegration; Board Member, Centre for Security and Development Research, UkraineOrysia Lutsevych, Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House Six years after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the armed conflict in Donbas, the process of coalescing the Ukrainian society around a common civic identity remains complex. Ukraine comprises many ethno-linguistic identities, and various internal and external actors have been able to exploit old and new grievances to increase tensions at the regional and local level.The panellists will discuss the conflict dynamics along parts of Ukraine’s international border and the line of contact with Crimea. The speakers will review the internal political, social and economic trends that cause friction and suggest ways to strengthen cohesion.The event will build upon key findings from International Alert’s analysis of the south of Odesa, Kherson and Zakarpattia oblasts and on the reintegration of veterans in Ukraine.This event is organized in partnership with International Alert, supported by UK aid from the UK government as part of the Peace Research Partnership programme. Department/project Russia and Eurasia Programme, Ukraine Forum Anna Morgan Administrator, Ukraine Forum +44 (0)20 7389 3274 Email Full Article
bey Moldova in 2020 and Beyond: Challenges Ahead By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 17 Feb 2020 10:00:02 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 5 March 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Maia Sandu, President, Action and Solidarity Party; Prime Minister of Moldova (June-November 2019)Chair: Cristina Gherasimov, Research Fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations; Academy Associate, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House After a tumultuous 2019 when Moldova witnessed the end of the Plahotniuc era, the country seems bound for an equally difficult year ahead. Increasing international isolation, a temporary working coalition between the Socialists and the Democrats, concentration of power and resources in the hands of President Igor Dodon, and presidential elections in autumn are among the ordeals to be discussed at this event. Ms Sandu will assess how Moldova can move beyond these challenges and return to a path for sustainable democratic reform. Department/project Russia and Eurasia Programme Anna Morgan Administrator, Ukraine Forum +44 (0)20 7389 3274 Email Full Article
bey Membrane domains beyond the reach of microscopy [Commentaries] By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: 2020-05-01T00:05:27-07:00 Full Article
bey Ukraine Beyond Donbas: Is Social Cohesion at Risk? By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Tue, 11 Feb 2020 14:20:01 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 28 February 2020 - 9:30am to 1:00pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Agendapdf | 121.04 KB Event participants Iryna Brunova-Kalisetska, Independent Researcher, Trainer and Dialogue FacilitatorMaxim Ieligulashvili, Independent Researcher, Trainer and Dialogue FacilitatorVolodymyr Lupatsy, Co-founder, National Platform on Dialogue for Peace and Secure Reintegration; Board Member, Centre for Security and Development Research, UkraineOrysia Lutsevych, Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House Six years after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the armed conflict in Donbas, the process of coalescing the Ukrainian society around a common civic identity remains complex. Ukraine comprises many ethno-linguistic identities, and various internal and external actors have been able to exploit old and new grievances to increase tensions at the regional and local level.The panellists will discuss the conflict dynamics along parts of Ukraine’s international border and the line of contact with Crimea. The speakers will review the internal political, social and economic trends that cause friction and suggest ways to strengthen cohesion.The event will build upon key findings from International Alert’s analysis of the south of Odesa, Kherson and Zakarpattia oblasts and on the reintegration of veterans in Ukraine.This event is organized in partnership with International Alert, supported by UK aid from the UK government as part of the Peace Research Partnership programme. Department/project Russia and Eurasia Programme, Ukraine Forum Anna Morgan Administrator, Ukraine Forum +44 (0)20 7389 3274 Email Full Article
bey Moldova in 2020 and Beyond: Challenges Ahead By feedproxy.google.com Published On :: Mon, 17 Feb 2020 10:00:02 +0000 Invitation Only Research Event 5 March 2020 - 2:00pm to 3:30pm Chatham House | 10 St James's Square | London | SW1Y 4LE Event participants Maia Sandu, President, Action and Solidarity Party; Prime Minister of Moldova (June-November 2019)Chair: Cristina Gherasimov, Research Fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations; Academy Associate, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House After a tumultuous 2019 when Moldova witnessed the end of the Plahotniuc era, the country seems bound for an equally difficult year ahead. Increasing international isolation, a temporary working coalition between the Socialists and the Democrats, concentration of power and resources in the hands of President Igor Dodon, and presidential elections in autumn are among the ordeals to be discussed at this event. Ms Sandu will assess how Moldova can move beyond these challenges and return to a path for sustainable democratic reform. Department/project Russia and Eurasia Programme Anna Morgan Administrator, Ukraine Forum +44 (0)20 7389 3274 Email Full Article